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USGS2018

Advancing marine biological observations and data requirements of the complementary Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) and Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) Frameworks

Measurements of the status and trends of key indicators for the ocean and marine life are required to inform policy and management in the context of growing human uses of marine resources, coastal development, and climate change. Two synergistic efforts identify specific priority variables for monitoring: Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) through the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), and Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) from the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON). Both systems support reporting against internationally agreed conventions and treaties. GOOS, established under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), plays a leading role in coordinating global monitoring of the ocean and in the definition of EOVs. GEO BON is a global biodiversity observation network that coordinates observations to enhance management of the world’s biodiversity and promote both the awareness and accounting of ecosystem services. Convergence and agreement between these two efforts are required to streamline existing and new marine observation programs to advance scientific knowledge effectively and to support the sustainable use and management of ocean spaces and resources. In this context, the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON), a thematic component of GEO BON, is collaborating with GOOS, the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS), and the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project to ensure that EBVs and EOVs are complementary, representing alternative uses of a common set of scientific measurements. This work is informed by the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM), an intergovernmental body of technical experts that helps international coordination on best practices for observing, data management and services, combined with capacity development expertise. Characterizing biodiversity and understanding its drivers will require incorporation of observations from traditional and molecular taxonomy, animal tagging and tracking efforts, ocean biogeochemistry, and ocean observatory initiatives including deep ocean and seafloor. The partnership between large-scale ocean observing and product distribution initiatives (MBON, OBIS, JCOMM, and GOOS) is an expedited, effective way to support international policy-level assessments (e.g., the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services or IPBES), along with the implementation of international development goals (e.g., the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals).

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2016

Tracking millennial-scale Holocene glacial advance and retreat using osmium isotopes: Insights from the Greenland ice sheet

High-resolution Os isotope stratigraphy can aid in reconstructing Pleistocene ice sheet fluctuation and elucidating the role of local and regional weathering fluxes on the marine Os residence time. This paper presents new Os isotope data from ocean cores adjacent to the West Greenland ice sheet that have excellent chronological controls. Cores MSM-520 and DA00-06 represent distal to proximal sites adjacent to two West Greenland ice streams. Core MSM-520 has a steadily decreasing Os signal over the last 10 kyr ( 187 Os/ 188 Os = 1.35–0.81). In contrast, Os isotopes from core DA00-06 (proximal to the calving front of Jakobshavn Isbræ) highlight four stages of ice stream retreat and advance over the past 10 kyr ( 187 Os/ 188 Os = 2.31; 1.68; 2.09; 1.47). Our high-resolution chemostratigraphic records provide vital benchmarks for ice-sheet modelers as we attempt to better constrain the future response of major ice sheets to climate change. Variations in Os isotope composition from sediment and macro-algae (seaweed) sourced from regional and global settings serve to emphasize the overwhelming effect weathering sources have on seawater Os isotope composition. Further, these findings demonstrate that the residence time of Os is shorter than previous estimates of ∼10 4 yr.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2016

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

Environmental Impact Assessment Review↗
USGS2013

Water resources and shale gas/oil production in the Appalachian Basin: critical issues and evolving developments

Unconventional natural gas and oil resources in the United States are important components of a national energy program. While the Nation seeks greater energy independence and greener sources of energy, Federal agencies with environmental responsibilities, state and local regulators and water-resource agencies, and citizens throughout areas of unconventional shale gas development have concerns about the environmental effects of high volume hydraulic fracturing (HVHF), including those in the Appalachian Basin in the northeastern United States (fig. 1). Environmental concerns posing critical challenges include the availability and use of surface water and groundwater for hydraulic fracturing; the migration of stray gas and potential effects on overlying aquifers; the potential for flowback, formation fluids, and other wastes to contaminate surface water and groundwater; and the effects from drill pads, roads, and pipeline infrastructure on land disturbance in small watersheds and headwater streams (U.S. Government Printing Office, 2012). Federal, state, regional and local agencies, along with the gas industry, are striving to use the best science and technology to develop these unconventional resources in an environmentally safe manner. Some of these concerns were addressed in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fact Sheet 2009–3032 (Soeder and Kappel, 2009) about potential critical effects on water resources associated with the development of gas extraction from the Marcellus Shale of the Hamilton Group (Ver Straeten and others, 1994). Since that time, (1) the extraction process has evolved, (2) environmental awareness related to high-volume hydraulic fracturing process has increased, (3) state regulations concerning gas well drilling have been modified, and (4) the practices used by industry to obtain, transport, recover, treat, recycle, and ultimately dispose of the spent fluids and solid waste materials have evolved. This report updates and expands on Fact Sheet 2009–3032 and presents new information regarding selected aspects of unconventional shale gas development in the Appalachian Basin (primarily Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York). This document was prepared by the USGS, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, and reviews the evolving technical advances and scientific studies made in the Appalachian Basin between 2009 and the present (2013), addressing past and current issues for oil and gas development in the region.

Maryl;New York;Ohio;Pennsylvania;Virginia;West Vir↗
USGS2017

Flowering phenology shifts in response to biodiversity loss

Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology—the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiotic factors influence plant phenology, we know very little about how biotic interactions can affect flowering times, a significant knowledge gap given ongoing human-caused alteration of biodiversity and plant community structure at the global scale. We experimentally manipulated plant diversity in a California serpentine grassland and found that many plant species flowered earlier in response to reductions in diversity, with peak flowering date advancing an average of 0.6 days per species lost. These changes in phenology were mediated by the effects of plant diversity on soil surface temperature, available soil N, and soil moisture. Peak flowering dates were also more dispersed among species in high-diversity plots than expected based on monocultures. Our findings illustrate that shifts in plant species composition and diversity can alter the timing and distribution of flowering events, and that these changes to phenology are similar in magnitude to effects induced by climate change. Declining diversity could thus contribute to or exacerbate phenological changes attributed to rising global temperatures.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2013

Taming wildlife disease: bridging the gap between science and management

1.Parasites and pathogens of wildlife can threaten biodiversity, infect humans and domestic animals, and cause significant economic losses, providing incentives to manage wildlife diseases. Recent insights from disease ecology have helped transform our understanding of infectious disease dynamics and yielded new strategies to better manage wildlife diseases. Simultaneously, wildlife disease management (WDM) presents opportunities for large-scale empirical tests of disease ecology theory in diverse natural systems. 2.To assess whether the potential complementarity between WDM and disease ecology theory has been realized, we evaluate the extent to which specific concepts in disease ecology theory have been explicitly applied in peer-reviewed WDM literature. 3.While only half of WDM articles published in the past decade incorporated disease ecology theory, theory has been incorporated with increasing frequency over the past 40 years. Contrary to expectations, articles authored by academics were no more likely to apply disease ecology theory, but articles that explain unsuccessful management often do so in terms of theory. 4.Some theoretical concepts such as density-dependent transmission have been commonly applied, whereas emerging concepts such as pathogen evolutionary responses to management, biodiversity–disease relationships and within-host parasite interactions have not yet been fully integrated as management considerations. 5.Synthesis and applications. Theory-based disease management can meet the needs of both academics and managers by testing disease ecology theory and improving disease interventions. Theoretical concepts that have received limited attention to date in wildlife disease management could provide a basis for improving management and advancing disease ecology in the future.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2019

Landscape connectivity planning for adaptation to future climate and land-use change

Purpose of Review We examined recent literature on promoting habitat connectivity in the context of climate change (CC) and land-use change (LUC). These two global change forcings have wide-reaching ecological effects that are projected to worsen in the future. Improving connectivity is a common adaptation strategy, but CC and LUC can also degrade planned connections, potentially reducing their effectiveness. We synthesize advances in connectivity design approaches, identify challenges confronted by researchers and practitioners, and offer suggestions for future research. Recent Findings Recent studies incorporated future CC into connectivity design more often than LUC and rarely considered the two drivers jointly. When considering CC, most studies have focused on relatively broad spatial and temporal extents and have included either species-based targets or coarse-filter targets like geodiversity and climate gradients. High levels of uncertainty about future LUC and lack of consistent, readily available model simulations are likely hindering its inclusion in connectivity modeling. This high degree of uncertainty extends to efforts to jointly consider future CC and LUC. Summary We argue that successful promotion of connectivity as a means to adapt to CC and LUC will depend on (1) the velocity of CC, (2) the velocity of LUC, and (3) the degree of existing landscape fragmentation. We present a new conceptual framework to assist in identifying connectivity networks given these three factors. Given the high uncertainty associated with future CC and LUC, incorporating insights from decision science into connectivity planning will facilitate the development of more robust adaptation strategies.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗
USGS2021

Evidence that watershed nutrient management practices effectively reduce estrogens in environmental waters

We evaluate the impacts of different nutrient management strategies on the potential for co-managing estrogens and nutrients in environmental waters of the Potomac watershed of the Chesapeake Bay. These potential co-management approaches represent agricultural and urban runoff, wastewater treatment plant effluent, and combined sewer overflow replacements. Twelve estrogenic compounds and their metabolites were analysed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Estrogenic activity (E 2 Eq) was measured by in vitro bioassay. We detected estrone E 1 (0.05–6.97 ng L −1 ) and estriol E 3 (below detection-8.13 ng L −1 ) and one conjugated estrogen (estrone-3-sulfate E 1 -3S; below detection-8.13 ng L −1 ). E 1 was widely distributed and positively correlated with E 2 Eq, water temperature, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Among nonpoint sources, E 2 Eq, and concentrations of E 1 , soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) decreased by 51–61%, 77–82%, 62–64%, 4–16% in restored urban and agricultural streams with best management practices (BMPs) relative to unrestored streams without BMPs. In a wastewater treatment plant (Blue Plains WWTP), >94% of E 1 , E 1 -3S, E 3 , E 2 Eq and TDN were removed while SRP increased by 305% during nitrification/denitrification as a part of advanced wastewater treatment. Consequently, E 1 and TDN concentrations in WWTP effluents were comparable or even lower than those observed in the receiving stream or river waters, and the effects of wastewater discharges on downstream E 1 and TDN concentrations were minor. Highest E 2 Eq value and concentrations of E1, E3, and TDN were detected in combined sewer overflow (CSO). This study suggests that WWTP upgrades with biological nutrient removal, CSO management, and certain agricultural and urban BMPs for nutrient controls have the potential to remove estrogens from point and nonpoint sources along with other contaminants in streams and rivers.

Maryland↗
USGS2012

Advances in the simulation and automated measurement of well-sorted granular material: 1. Simulation

1. In this, the first of a pair of papers which address the simulation and automated measurement of well-sorted natural granular material, a method is presented for simulation of two-phase (solid, void) assemblages of discrete non-cohesive particles. The purpose is to have a flexible, yet computationally and theoretically simple, suite of tools with well constrained and well known statistical properties, in order to simulate realistic granular material as a discrete element model with realistic size and shape distributions, for a variety of purposes. The stochastic modeling framework is based on three-dimensional tessellations with variable degrees of order in particle-packing arrangement. Examples of sediments with a variety of particle size distributions and spatial variability in grain size are presented. The relationship between particle shape and porosity conforms to published data. The immediate application is testing new algorithms for automated measurements of particle properties (mean and standard deviation of particle sizes, and apparent porosity) from images of natural sediment, as detailed in the second of this pair of papers. The model could also prove useful for simulating specific depositional structures found in natural sediments, the result of physical alterations to packing and grain fabric, using discrete particle flow models. While the principal focus here is on naturally occurring sediment and sedimentary rock, the methods presented might also be useful for simulations of similar granular or cellular material encountered in engineering, industrial and life sciences.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2020

3D fault architecture controls the dynamism of earthquake swarm

The vibrant evolutionary patterns made by earthquake swarms are incompatible with standard, effectively two-dimensional (2D) models for general fault architecture. We leverage advances in earthquake monitoring with a deep-learning algorithm to image a fault zone hosting a 4-year-long swarm in southern California. We infer that fluids are naturally injected into the fault zone from below and diffuse through strike-parallel channels while triggering earthquakes. A permeability barrier initially limits up-dip swarm migration but ultimately is circumvented. This enables fluid migration within a shallower section of the fault with fundamentally different mechanical properties. Our observations provide high-resolution constraints on the processes by which swarms initiate, grow, and arrest. These findings illustrate how swarm evolution is strongly controlled by 3D variations in fault architecture.

Science↗
USGS2026

Whatever it takes— Shaping the L&O Letters Early Career Publication Honor to deliver true benefit

There are clear advantages for those who openly share their research. Publishing Open Access (OA) articles can increase author visibility (McCabe and Snyder 2014 ), improve productivity metrics (i.e., more diverse and higher citation rates; Huang et al. 2024 ; Piwowar et al. 2018 ), widen collaborative networks (Tai and Robinson 2018 ), and help secure future funding and/or comply with funder mandates (Herrmannova et al. 2019 ; Larivière and Sugimoto 2018 ; McKiernan et al. 2016 and references therein). These benefits can be vital for students and early career researchers (ECRs) trying to advance and thrive in academia. However, publishing papers in Gold OA journals such as L&O Letters comes at a notable financial cost, as these journals require that the corresponding author (or their organization or funder) pay a fee to make their published article immediately freely available to the public. These article processing charges can be prohibitively expensive (Fontúrbel and Vizentin-Bugoni 2021 ; Mekonnen et al. 2022 ; Ross-Hellauer et al. 2022 ). While Read and Publish agreements and waiver programs may be available to help cover these costs, these programs often exclude independent authors as well as those affiliated with ineligible or non-participating institutions (e.g., publisher waivers using the Research4Life eligibility criteria for access currently only allow authors from one of 13 South American countries/territories to publish free of charge). Besides the financial barrier, authors from underrepresented groups can also face a myriad of other publishing roadblocks, such as linguistic challenges (for speakers of English as a foreign language; Amano et al. 2023 ; Franco-Santos 2024 ; Ramírez-Castañeda 2020 ) and geopolitical-scientific bias (e.g., science conducted in the Global South being seen as less impactful and innovative than that conducted in the Global North; Ghosh 2022 ; Smits et al. 2025 ). For context, Global South (GS) and Global North (GN) are not geographic determinations (i.e., South and North hemispheres), but geopolitical classifications regarding a nation's level of development (underdeveloped, developing, or developed). For example: Australia and Brazil are both located in the southern hemisphere, but the former is considered as a Global North (developed) country and the latter as a Global South (underdeveloped or developing) country. When a subset of researchers is unable to openly publish their work, the diversity of voices represented in OA literature can decline (Williams et al. 2023 ). Loss of diversity is a loss to science, as diversity increases productivity, innovation, and scientific impact (refer to opening quote; Freeman and Huang 2014 ; AlShebli et al. 2018 ; Tomillo et al. 2022 ). To partially address the above-mentioned challenges and enable underfunded ECRs to publish their work in OA format, the biennial L&O Letters Early Career Publication Honor (ECPH) was established in 2020 by the ASLO Raelyn Cole Editorial (RCE) Fellows (Hotaling et al. 2022 ). Below we reflect on the benefits, outcomes, and scientific impact of the 2022 call and introduce the articles it helped publish in L&O Letters , which are bundled in this section of the ECPH Virtual Issue. Articles published in L&O Letters during other calls are available in their respective sections. We also refer the reader to six articles published by ECRs in other journals (not included in this Virtual Issue) whose content originally warranted their leading author an ECPH in 2022.

Limnology and Oceanography Letters↗
USGS2021

The application of metacommunity theory to the management of riverine ecosystems

River managers strive to use the best available science to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function. To achieve this goal requires consideration of processes at different scales. Metacommunity theory describes how multiple species from different communities potentially interact with local-scale environmental drivers to influence population dynamics and community structure. However, this body of knowledge has only rarely been used to inform management practices for river ecosystems. In this article, we present a conceptual model outlining how the metacommunity processes of local niche sorting and dispersal can influence the outcomes of management interventions and provide a series of specific recommendations for applying these ideas as well as research needs. In all cases, we identify situations where traditional approaches to riverine management could be enhanced by incorporating an understanding of metacommunity dynamics. A common theme is developing guidelines for assessing the metacommunity context of a site or region, evaluating how that context may affect the desired outcome, and incorporating that understanding into the planning process and methods used. To maximize the effectiveness of management activities, scientists, and resource managers should update the toolbox of approaches to riverine management to reflect theoretical advances in metacommunity ecology.

WIREs Water↗
USGS2019

Towards globally customizable ecosystem service models

Scientists, stakeholders and decision makers face trade-offs between adopting simple or complex approaches when modeling ecosystem services (ES). Complex approaches may be time- and data-intensive, making them more challenging to implement and difficult to scale, but can produce more accurate and locally specific results. In contrast, simple approaches allow for faster assessments but may sacrifice accuracy and credibility. The ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) modeling platform has endeavored to provide a spectrum of simple to complex ES models that are readily accessible to a broad range of users. In this paper, we describe a series of five “Tier 1” ES models that users can run anywhere in the world with no user input, while offering the option to easily customize models with context-specific data and parameters. This approach enables rapid ES quantification, as models are automatically adapted to the application context. We provide examples of customized ES assessments at three locations on different continents and demonstrate the use of ARIES' spatial multi-criteria analysis module, which enables spatial prioritization of ES for different beneficiary groups. The models described here use publicly available global- and continental-scale data as defaults. Advanced users can modify data input requirements, model parameters or entire model structures to capitalize on high-resolution data and context-specific model formulations. Data and methods contributed by the research community become part of a growing knowledge base, enabling faster and better ES assessment for users worldwide. By engaging with the ES modeling community to further develop and customize these models based on user needs, spatiotemporal contexts, and scale(s) of analysis, we aim to cover the full arc from simple to complex assessments, minimizing the additional cost to the user when increased complexity and accuracy are needed.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2003

Response of North American Great Basin Lakes to Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations

We correlate oscillations in the hydrologic and/or cryologic balances of four Great Basin surface-water systems with Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events 2-12. This correlation is relatively strong at the location of the magnetic signature used to link the lake records, but becomes less well constrained with distance/time from the signature. Comparison of proxy glacial and hydrologic records from Owens and Pyramid lakes indicates that Sierran glacial advances occurred during times of relative dryness. If our hypothesized correlation between the lake-based records and the GISP2 ??18O record is correct, it suggests that North Atlantic D-O stades were associated with relatively cold and dry conditions and that interstades were associated with relatively warm and wet conditions throughout the Great Basin between 50,500 and 27,000 GISP2yr B.P. The Great Basin lacustrine climate records reinforce the hypothesis that D-O events affected the climate throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere during marine isotope stages 2 and 3. However, the absolute phasing between lake-size and ice-core ??18O records remains difficult to determine.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2003

Timing of autumn bird migration under climate change: advances in long–distance migrants, delays in short–distance migrants

As a response to increasing spring temperature in temperate regions in recent years, populations of many plant and animal species, including migratory birds, have advanced the seasonal start of their reproduction or growth. However, the effects of climate changes on subsequent events of the annual cycle remain poorly understood. We investigated long–term changes in the timing of autumn migration in birds, a key event in the annual cycle limiting the reproductive period. Using data spanning a 42–year period, we analysed long–term changes in the passage of 65 species of migratory birds through Western Europe. The autumn passage of migrants wintering south of the Sahara has advanced in recent years, presumably as a result of selection pressure to cross the Sahel before its seasonal dry period. In contrast, migrants wintering north of the Sahara have delayed autumn passage. In addition, species with a variable rather than a fixed number of broods per year have delayed passage, possibly because they are free to attempt more broods. Recent climate changes seem to have a simple unidirectional effect on the seasonal onset of reproduction, but complex and opposing effects on the timing of subsequent events in the annual cycle, depending on the ecology and life history of a species. This complicates predictions of overall effects of global warming on avian communities.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗
USGS2000

Preface paper to the Semi-Arid Land-Surface-Atmosphere (SALSA) Program special issue

The Semi-Arid Land-Surface-Atmosphere Program (SALSA) is a multi-agency, multi-national research effort that seeks to evaluate the consequences of natural and human-induced environmental change in semi-arid regions. The ultimate goal of SALSA is to advance scientific understanding of the semi-arid portion of the hydrosphere-biosphere interface in order to provide reliable information for environmental decision making. SALSA approaches this goal through a program of long-term, integrated observations, process research, modeling, assessment, and information management that is sustained by cooperation among scientists and information users. In this preface to the SALSA special issue, general program background information and the critical nature of semi-arid regions is presented. A brief description of the Upper San Pedro River Basin, the initial location for focused SALSA research follows. Several overarching research objectives under which much of the interdisciplinary research contained in the special issue was undertaken are discussed. Principal methods, primary research sites and data collection used by numerous investigators during 1997-1999 are then presented. Scientists from about 20 US, five European (four French and one Dutch), and three Mexican agencies and institutions have collaborated closely to make the research leading to this special issue a reality. The SALSA Program has served as a model of interagency cooperation by breaking new ground in the approach to large scale interdisciplinary science with relatively limited resources.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2021

Coastal Tree-Ring Records for Paleoclimate and Paleoenvironmental Applications in North America

For more than a century, tree-ring research has identified relationships between climatic and ecological conditions and tree growth to describe past environments and constrain future ecosystem vulnerabilities. Tree-ring records are frequently used as environmental proxies that extend knowledge of past climate and ecology on millennial scales. Many of the most pressing global change questions facing North America concern the rate of climate change and vulnerability of ecosystems and society along the coast. The opportunities and applications in dendrochronology continue to grow with advancing methodologies, faster computational ability, and the cost-reduction of many chemical and anatomical analyses. Here, we propose that many pressing global change questions that affect coastal communities can be addressed using dendrochronological techniques. We review coastal tree-ring studies that demonstrate the utility and potential for future tree-ring studies in the northeastern, southeastern, northwestern, and southwestern North American coasts. Additionally, we show that tree-ring chronologies along the coast give insight into local and regional climate phenomena that are distinct from nearby, inland tree-ring chronologies of the same species. Lastly, we identify opportunities for coastal dendrochronology and encourage the collection of more tree-ring records that are directly impacted by coastal phenomena.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2018

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗