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Outstanding issues for new geothermal resource assessments

A critical question for the future energy policy of the United States is the extent to which geothermal resources can contribute to an ever-increasing demand for electricity. Electric power production from geothermal sources exceeds that from wind and solar combined, yet the installed capacity falls far short of the geothermal resource base characterized in past assessments, even though the estimated size of the resource in six assessments completed in the past 35 years varies by thousands of Megawatts-electrical (MWe). The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working closely with the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Research Program and other geothermal organizations on a three-year effort to produce an updated assessment of available geothermal resources. The new assessment will introduce significant changes in the models for geothermal energy recovery factors, estimates of reservoir permeability, limits to temperatures and depths for electric power production, and include the potential impact of evolving Enhanced (or Engineered) Geothermal Systems (EGS) technology.

Conference Paper↗

Sources and characteristics of organic matter in the Clackamas River, Oregon, related to the formation of disinfection by-products in treated drinking water

This study characterized the amount and quality of organic matter in the Clackamas River, Oregon, to gain an understanding of sources that contribute to the formation of chlorinated and brominated disinfection by-products (DBPs), focusing on regulated DBPs in treated drinking water from two direct-filtration treatment plants that together serve approximately 100,000 customers. The central hypothesis guiding this study was that natural organic matter leaching out of the forested watershed, in-stream growth of benthic algae, and phytoplankton blooms in the reservoirs contribute different and varying proportions of organic carbon to the river. Differences in the amount and composition of carbon derived from each source affects the types and concentrations of DBP precursors entering the treatment plants and, as a result, yield varying DBP concentrations and species in finished water. The two classes of DBPs analyzed in this study-trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs)-form from precursors within the dissolved and particulate pools of organic matter present in source water. The five principal objectives of the study were to (1) describe the seasonal quantity and character of organic matter in the Clackamas River; (2) relate the amount and composition of organic matter to the formation of DBPs; (3) evaluate sources of DBP precursors in the watershed; (4) assess the use of optical measurements, including in-situ fluorescence, for estimating dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and DBP formation; and (5) assess the removal of DBP precursors during treatment by conducting treatability "jar-test" experiments at one of the treatment plants. Data collection consisted of (1) monthly sampling of source and finished water at two drinking-water treatment plants; (2) event-based sampling in the mainstem, tributaries, and North Fork Reservoir; and (3) in-situ continuous monitoring of fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM), turbidity, chlorophyll- a , and other constituents to continuously track source-water conditions in near real-time. Treatability tests were conducted during the four event-based surveys to determine the effectiveness of coagulant and powdered activated carbon (PAC) on the removal of DBP precursors. Sample analyses included DOC, total particulate carbon (TPC), total and dissolved nutrients, absorbance and fluorescence spectroscopy, and, for regulated DBPs, concentrations of THMs and HAAs in finished water and laboratory-based THM and HAA formation potentials (THMFP and HAAFP, respectively) for source water and selected locations throughout the watershed. The results of this study may not be typical given the record and near record amounts of precipitation that occurred during spring that produced streamflow much higher than average in 2010-11. Although there were algal blooms, lower concentrations of chlorophyll- a were observed in the water column during the study period compared to historical data. Concentrations of DBPs in finished (treated) water averaged 0.024 milligrams per liter (mg/L) for THMs and 0.022 mg/L for HAAs; maximum values were about 0.040 mg/L for both classes of DBPs. Although DBP concentrations were somewhat higher within the distribution system, none of the samples collected for this study or for the quarterly compliance monitoring by the water utilities exceeded levels permissible under existing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) regulations: 0.080 mg/L for THMs and 0.060 mg/L for HAAs. DOC concentrations were generally low in the Clackamas River, typically about 1.0-1.5 mg/L. Concentrations in the mainstem occasionally increased to nearly 2.5 mg/L during storms; DOC concentrations in tributaries were sometimes much higher (up to 7.8 mg/L). The continuous in-situ FDOM measurements indicated sharp rises in DOC concentrations in the mainstem following rainfall events; concentrations were relatively stable during summer base flow. Even though the first autumn storm mobilized appreciable quantities of carbon, higher concentrations of DBPs in finished water were observed 3-weeks later, after the ground was saturated from additional rainfall. The majority of the DOC in the lower Clackamas River appears to originate from the upper basin, suggesting terrestrial carbon was commonly the dominant source. Lower-basin tributaries typically contained the highest concentrations of DOC and DBP precursors and contributed substantially to the overall loads in the mainstem during storms. During low-flow periods, tributaries were not major sources of DOC or DBP precursors to the Clackamas River. Although the dissolved fraction of organic carbon contributed the majority of DBP precursors, at times the particulate fraction (inorganic sediment and organic particles including detritus and algal material) contributed a substantial fraction of DBP precursors. Considering just the main-stem sites, on average, 10 percent of THMFP and 32 percent of HAAFP were attributed to particulate carbon. This finding suggests water-treatment methods that remove particles prior to chlorination would reduce finished-water DBP concentrations to some degree. Overall, concentrations of THM and HAA precursors were closely linked to DOC concentrations; laboratory DBP formation potentials (DBPFPs) clearly showed that THMFP and HAAFP were greatest in the downstream tributaries that contained elevated carbon concentrations. However, carbon-normalized "specific" formation potentials for THMs and HAAs (STHMFP and SHAAFP, respectively) revealed changes in carbon character over time that affected the two types of DBP classes differently. HAA precursors were elevated in waters containing aromatic-rich soil-derived material arising from forested areas. In contrast, THM precursors were associated with carbon having a lower aromatic content; highest STHMFP occurred in autumn 2011 in the mainstem from North Fork Reservoir downstream to LO DWTP. This pattern suggests the potential for a link between THM precursors and algal-derived carbon. The highest STHMFP value was measured within North Fork Reservoir, indicating reservoir derived carbon may be important for this class of DBPs. Weak correlations between STHMFP and SHAAFP emphasize that precursor sources for these types of DBPs may be different. This highlights not only that different locations within the watershed produce carbon with different reactivity (specific DBPFP), but also that different management approaches for each class of DBP precursors could be required for control. Treatability tests conducted on source water during four basin-wide surveys demonstrated that an average of about 40 percent of DOC can be removed by coagulation. While the decrease in THMFP following coagulation was similar to DOC, the decrease in HAAFP was much greater (approximately 70 percent), indicating coagulation is particularly effective at removing HAA precursors'likely because of the aromatic nature of the carbon associated with HAA precursors. Several findings from this study have direct implications for managing drinking-water resources and for providing useful information that may help improve treatment-plant operations. For example, the use of in-situ fluorometers that measure FDOM provided an excellent proxy for DOC concentration in this system and revealed short-term, rapid changes in DOC concentration during storm events. In addition, the strong correlation between FDOM values measured in-situ and HAA5 concentrations in finished water may permit estimation of continuous HAA concentrations, as was done here. As part of this study, multiple in-situ FDOM sensors were deployed continuously and in real-time to characterize the composition of dissolved organic matter. Although the initial results were promising, additional research and engineering developments will be needed to demonstrate the full utility of these sensors for this purpose. In conclusion, although DBPFPs were strongly correlated to DOC concentration, some DBPs formed from particulate carbon, including terrestrial leaf material and algal material such as planktonic species of blue-green algae and sloughed filaments, stalks, and cells of benthic algae. Different precursor sources in the watershed were evident from the data, suggesting specific actions may be available to address some of these sources. In-situ measurements of FDOM proved to be an excellent proxy for DOC concentration as well as HAA formation during treatment, which suggests further development and refinement of these sensors have the potential to provide real-time information about complex watershed processes to operators at the drinking-water treatment plants. Follow-up studies could examine the relative roles that terrestrial and algal sources have on the DBP precursor pool to better understand how watershed-management activities may be affecting the transport of these compounds to Clackamas River drinking-water intakes. Given the low concentrations of algae in the water column during this study, additional surveys during more typical river conditions could provide a more complete understanding of how algae contribute DBP precursors. Further development of FDOM-sensor technology can improve our understanding of carbon dynamics in the river and how concentrations may be trending over time. This study was conducted in collaboration with Clackamas River Water and the City of Lake Oswego water utilities. Other research partners included Oregon Health and Science University in Hillsboro, Oregon, Alexin Laboratory in Tigard, Oregon, U.S. Geological Survey National Research Program Laboratory in Denver, Colorado, and the U.S. Geological Survey Water Science Centers in Portland, Oregon, and Sacramento, California. This project was supported with funding from Clackamas River Water, City of Lake Oswego, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Water Research Foundation.

Oregon↗

Nearshore bathymetric changes along the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast and possible physical drivers

Erosion rates along Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast, among the highest in the world, are negatively impacting communities, industrial and military infrastructure, and wildlife habitat. Decreasing maximal winter ice extent and increasing summer open water duration and extent in the Beaufort Sea may be making the coast more vulnerable to destructive storm waves than during recent, colder, icier decades. Previous studies of Beaufort Sea coastal change have been limited to subaerial analyses of the shoreline. Here we describe nearshore seafloor change by comparing post-World War II (WWII) (1945-53) bathymetry data to recently acquired (1985–2018) bathymetry data and relate the observed seafloor change to adjacent shoreline change near Utqiagvik, within Stefansson Sound, and immediately west of Barter Island and Kaktovik. Within the Utqiagvik region, seabed erosion was generally highest (>1.0 m of loss) offshore of Point Barrow and along the eastern end of the Tapkaluk Islands, while there were lesser amounts of deposition (<0.5 m of gain) within the protected waters of Elson Lagoon. Sedimentation was generally highest offshore of Point Barrow, in a region of converging currents, and on the landward side of the barrier islands and spits fronting Elson Lagoon, which is likely related to a regional trend of westerly sediment transport and landward migration of the barrier islands. Within Stefansson Sound, perhaps the most notable changes from post-WWII bathymetry data compared to recent data are a switch from mixed, low erosion and deposition in 1997 to low deposition (<0.5 m) in 2018 east of the Boulder Patch, a switch from low erosion in 1997 to neutral depth change in 2018 in the channel between the north and south Boulder Patch areas, and higher deposition from 1997 to 2018 landward of the rapidly retreating barrier islands along the Sound's northern border. At Barter Island, high erosion near north-facing shorelines and high deposition near west-facing shorelines generally matched shoreline changes. One of our goals is to identify possible processes responsible for the depth changes we quantified. Using simple metrics that relate sediment characteristics with modeled waves and non-wave induced currents, we show that sediment resuspension and transport by both wave and non-wave driven currents likely contribute to the overall patterns of change within the ∼13 m isobath along the open coast, and that the influence of wave action affecting sediment transport is expanding seaward.

Alaska↗

Matching of resource use and investment according to waterbody size in recreational fisheries

The size of an ecosystem affects ecological interactions, but less is known about how ecosystem size may affect social interactions. We posit that ecosystem size could serve as a basis for understanding and contextualizing social interactions, connecting how ecosystem size influences natural resource investment decisions and the use of ecosystem services. We leverage international (Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, United States of America) inland recreational fishery data to explore whether certain ecosystem sizes receive a disproportionate amount of fish stocked (a measure of resource investment) and attract more angler effort – our measure of an ecosystem service. We find that smaller lentic waterbodies receive a disproportionate amount of fish stocked per area and also attract more angler effort per area consistently in all four countries. Therefore, we find that resource use and resource investment is matched by ecosystem size. We conclude that small waterbodies are prioritized by both managers and users and contribute more (per area) to recreational fisheries compared to large and more visible waterbodies on the landscape. An increasing focus on smaller-sized lakes and rivers, also those anthropogenically created, in science, assessment, and management is warranted.

Fisheries Research↗

Chronology and ecology of late Pleistocene megafauna in the northern Willamette Valley, Oregon

Since the mid-19th century, western Oregon's Willamette Valley has been a source of remains from a wide variety of extinct megafauna. Few of these have been previously described or dated, but new chronologic and isotopic analyses in conjunction with updated evaluations of stratigraphic context provide substantial new information on the species present, timing of losses, and paleoenvironmental conditions. Using subfossil material from the northern valley, we use AMS radiocarbon dating, stable isotope (&delta; 13 C and &delta; 15 N) analyses, and taxonomic dietary specialization and habitat preferences to reconstruct environments and to develop a local chronology of events that we then compare with continental and regional archaeological and paleoenvironmental data. Analysis of twelve bone specimens demonstrates the presence of bison, mammoth, horse, sloth, and mastodon from ~ 15,000&ndash;13,000 cal yr BP. The latest ages coincide with changing regional climate corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. It is suggested that cooling conditions led to increased forest cover, and, along with river aggradation, reduced the area of preferred habitat for the larger bodied herbivores, which contributed to the demise of local megafauna. Archaeological evidence for megafauna&ndash;human interactions in the Pacific Northwest is scarce, limiting our ability to address the human role in causing extinction.

Oregon↗

Dust: Small-scale processes with global consequences

Desert dust, both modern and ancient, is a critical component of the Earth system. Atmospheric dust has important effects on climate by changing the atmospheric radiation budget, while deposited dust influences biogeochemical cycles in the oceans and on land. Dust deposited on snow and ice decreases its albedo, allowing more light to be trapped at the surface, thus increasing the rate of melt and influencing energy budgets and river discharge. In the human realm, dust contributes to the transport of allergens and pathogens and when inhaled can cause or aggravate respiratory diseases. Dust storms also represent a significant hazard to road and air travel. Because it affects so many Earth processes, dust is studied from a variety of perspectives and at multiple scales, with various disciplines examining emissions for different purposes using disparate strategies. Thus, the range of objectives in studying dust, as well as experimental approaches and results, has not yet been systematically integrated. Key research questions surrounding the production and sources of dust could benefit from improved collaboration among different research communities. These questions involve the origins of dust, factors that influence dust production and emission, and methods through which dust can be monitored.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

Hydrologic conditions controlling runoff generation immediately after wildfire

We investigated the control of postwildfire runoff by physical and hydraulic properties of soil, hydrologic states, and an ash layer immediately following wildfire. The field site is within the area burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire in Colorado, USA. Physical and hydraulic property characterization included ash thickness, particle size distribution, hydraulic conductivity, and soil water retention curves. Soil water content and matric potential were measured indirectly at several depths below the soil surface to document hydrologic states underneath the ash layer in the unsaturated zone, whereas precipitation and surface runoff were measured directly. Measurements of soil water content showed that almost no water infiltrated below the ash layer into the near-surface soil in the burned site at the storm time scale (i.e., minutes to hours). Runoff generation processes were controlled by and highly sensitive to ash thickness and ash hydraulic properties. The ash layer stored from 97% to 99% of rainfall, which was critical for reducing runoff amounts. The hydrologic response to two rain storms with different rainfall amounts, rainfall intensity, and durations, only ten days apart, indicated that runoff generation was predominantly by the saturation-excess mechanism perched at the ash-soil interface during the first storm and predominantly by the infiltration-excess mechanism at the ash surface during the second storm. Contributing area was not static for the two storms and was 4% (saturation excess) to 68% (infiltration excess) of the catchment area. Our results showed the importance of including hydrologic conditions and hydraulic properties of the ash layer in postwildfire runoff generation models.

Colorado↗

Case study modeling of turbulent and mesoscale fluxes over the BOREAS region

Results from aircraft and surface observations provided evidence for the existence of mesoscale circulations over the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) domain. Using an integrated approach that included the use of analytical modeling, numerical modeling, and data analysis, we have found that there are substantial contributions to the total budgets of heat over the BOREAS domain generated by mesoscale circulations. This effect is largest when the synoptic flow is relatively weak, yet it is present under less favorable conditions, as shown by the case study presented here. While further analysis is warranted to document this effect, the existence of mesoscale flow is not surprising, since it is related to the presence of landscape patches, including lakes, which are of a size on the order of the local Rossby radius and which have spatial differences in maximum sensible heat flux of about 300 W m-2. We have also analyzed the vertical temperature profile simulated in our case study as well as high-resolution soundings and we have found vertical profiles of temperature change above the boundary layer height, which we attribute in part to mesoscale contributions. Our conclusion is that in regions with organized landscapes, such as BOREAS, even with relatively strong synoptic winds, dynamical scaling criteria should be used to assess whether mesoscale effects should be parameterized or explicitly resolved in numerical models of the atmosphere.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Tree species and soil nutrient profiles in old-growth forests of the Oregon Coast Range

Old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest provide a unique opportunity to examine tree species &ndash; soil relationships in ecosystems that have developed without significant human disturbance. We characterized foliage, forest floor, and mineral soil nutrients associated with four canopy tree species (Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco), western hemlock ( Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), western redcedar ( Thuja plicata Donn ex D. Don), and bigleaf maple ( Acer macrophyllum Pursh)) in eight old-growth forests of the Oregon Coast Range. The greatest forest floor accumulations of C, N, P, Ca, Mg, and K occurred under Douglas-fir, primarily due to greater forest floor mass. In mineral soil, western hemlock exhibited significantly lower Ca concentration and sum of cations (Ca + Mg + K) than bigleaf maple, with intermediate values for Douglas-fir and western redcedar. Bigleaf maple explained most species-based differences in foliar nutrients, displaying high concentrations of N, P, Ca, Mg, and K. Foliar P and N:P variations largely reflected soil P variation across sites. The four tree species that we examined exhibited a number of individualistic effects on soil nutrient levels that contribute to biogeochemical heterogeneity in these ecosystems. Where fire suppression and long-term succession favor dominance by highly shade-tolerant western hemlock, our results suggest a potential for declines in both soil Ca availability and soil biogeochemical heterogeneity in old-growth forests.

Oregon↗

Assessing sloth bears as surrogates for carnivore conservation in Sri Lanka

Bears are large, charismatic mammals whose presence often garners conservation attention. Because healthy bear populations typically require large, contiguous areas of habitat, land conservation actions often are assumed to benefit co-occurring species, including other mammalian carnivores. However, we are not aware of an empirical test of this assumption. We used remote camera data from 2 national parks in Sri Lanka to test the hypothesis that the frequency of detection of sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) is associated with greater richness of carnivore species. We focused on mammalian carnivores because they play a pivotal role in the stability of ecological communities and are among Sri Lanka's most endangered species. Seven of Sri Lanka's carnivores are listed as endangered, vulnerable, or near threatened, and little empirical information exists on their status and distribution. During 2002–03, we placed camera traps at 152 sites to document carnivore species presence. We used Poisson regression to develop predictive models for 3 categories of dependent variables: species richness of (1) all carnivores, (2) carnivores considered at risk, and (3) carnivores of least conservation concern. For each category, we analyzed 8 a priori models based on combinations of sloth bear detections, sample year, and study area and used Akaike's information criterion (AIC c ) to test our research hypothesis. We detected sloth bears at 55 camera sites and detected 13 of Sri Lanka's 14 Carnivora species. Species richness of all carnivores showed positive associations with the number of sloth bear detections, regardless of study area. Sloth bear detections were also positively associated with species richness of carnivores at risk across both study years and study areas, but not with species richness of common carnivores. Sloth bears may serve as a valuable surrogate species whose habitat protection would contribute to conservation of other carnivores in Sri Lanka.

Ursus↗

The importance of mineralogical input into geometallurgy programs

Mineralogy is the link between ore formation and ore extraction. It is the most fundamental component of geomet programs, and the most important aspect of a life-of-project approach to mineral resource projects. Understanding orebodies is achieved by understanding the mineralogy and texture of the materials, throughout the process, because minerals hold the information required to unlock the value they contain. Geomet mineralogy programs absolutely require the appropriate expertise and at least three steps of mineral characterisation prior to using semi-automated or other methods: field examination, thorough core logging, and optical microscopy. Economic geological inputs for orebody characterisation are necessary for orebody understanding, and are exemplified by current research in the Zambian Copperbelt, where revised sequence stratigraphy and understanding of alteration, metasomatism and metamorphism can be used to predict topical issues at mine sites. Environmental inputs for sustainability characterisation are demonstrated by recent work on tailings from the Leadville, Colorado, USA area, including linking mineralogy to water quality issues. Risk assessments need to take into account the technical uncertainties around geological variability and mineral extractability, and mineralogy is the only metric that can be used to make this risk contribution.

Conference Paper↗

Vascular Plant and Vertebrate Inventory of Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument

Executive Summary We summarized inventory and monitoring efforts for plants and vertebrates at Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument (NM) in Arizona. We used data from previous research to compile complete species lists for the monument and to assess inventory completeness. There have been 1,031 species of plants and vertebrates observed at the monument. Most of the species on the list are documented by voucher specimens. There are 59 non-native species established in the monument: one mammal, three birds, and 55 non-native plants. Most non-native plant species were first recorded along roads. In each taxon-specific chapter, we highlight areas that contribute disproportionately to species richness or that have unique species for the monument. Of particular importance are Quitobaquito Springs and Pond, which are responsible for the monument having one of the highest number of bird species in the Sonoran Desert Network of parks. Quitobaquito also contains the only fish in the monument, the endangered Quitobaquito pupfish (Cyprinodon eremus). Other important resources for the plants and vertebrates include the xeroriparian washes (e.g., Alamo Canyon) and the Ajo Mountains. Based on the review of past studies, we believe the inventories of vascular plants and vertebrates are nearly complete and that the monument has one of the most complete inventories of any unit in the Sonoran Desert Network.

Open-File Report↗

Plankton communities and summertime declines in algal abundance associated with low dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon

Phytoplankton populations in the Tualatin River in northwestern Oregon are an important component of the dissolved oxygen (DO) budget of the river and are critical for maintaining DO levels in summer. During the low-flow summer period, sufficient nutrients and a long residence time typically combine with ample sunshine and warm water to fuel blooms of cryptophyte algae, diatoms, green and blue-green algae in the low-gradient, slow-moving reservoir reach of the lower river. Algae in the Tualatin River generally drift with the water rather than attach to the river bottom as a result of moderate water depths, slightly elevated turbidity caused by suspended colloidal material, and dominance of silty substrates. Growth of algae occurs as if on a “conveyor belt” of streamflow, a dynamic system that is continually refreshed with inflowing water. Transit through the system can take as long as 2 weeks during the summer low-flow period. Photosynthetic production of DO during algal blooms is important in offsetting oxygen consumption at the sediment-water interface caused by the decomposition of organic matter from primarily terrestrial sources, and the absence of photosynthesis can lead to low DO concentrations that can harm aquatic life. The periods with the lowest DO concentrations in recent years (since 2003) typically occur in August following a decline in algal abundance and activity, when DO concentrations often decrease to less than State standards for extended periods (nearly 80 days). Since 2003, algal populations have tended to be smaller and algal blooms have terminated earlier compared to conditions in the 1990s, leading to more frequent declines in DO to levels that do not meet State standards. This study was developed to document the current abundance and species composition of phytoplankton in the Tualatin River, identify the possible causes of the general decline in algae, and evaluate hypotheses to explain why algal blooms diminish in midsummer. Plankton and water-quality sample data from 2006 to 2008 were combined with parts of a larger discrete-sample and continuous water-quality monitoring dataset and examined to identify patterns in water-quality and algal conditions since 1991, with a particular emphasis on 2003–08. Longitudinal plankton surveys were conducted in 2006–08 at six sites between river miles (RM) 24.5 and 3.4 at 2- to 3-week intervals, or 5–6 per season, and in-situ bioassay experiments were conducted in 2008 to examine the potential effects of wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) effluent and phosphorus additions on phytoplankton biomass and algal photosynthesis. Phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition, streamflow, and water-quality data were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques to gain insights into plankton dynamics to determine what factors might be most tied to the abundance and characteristics of the phytoplankton assemblages, and identify possible causes of their declines. The connection between low-DO events and algal declines was clearly evident, as bloom crashes were nearly always followed by periods of low DO. Algal blooms occurred each year during 2006–08, producing maximum chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) values in June or July generally in the range of 50–80 micrograms per liter (µg/L). Bloom crashes and absence of sufficient algal photosynthesis in mid- to late-summer contributed to minimum DO concentrations that were less than the State standard of 6.5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) based on the 30-day mean daily concentration, for 62–74 days each year. At times, the absolute minimum State standard (4 mg/L DO) also was not met. To learn more about why low-DO events occurred, specific algal declines during 2003–08 were scrutinized to determine their likely causal factors. From this information, a series of hypotheses were formulated and evaluated in terms of their ability to explain recent declines in algal populations in the river in late summer. Meteorological, streamflow, turbidity, water temperature, and conductance conditions in the Tualatin River during the 2006–08 summer seasons were not atypical. Natural flow comprised the majority (70–80 percent) of flow each year during spring, but then reduced to 38–40 percent during midsummer when WWTF effluent—which contributed as much as 36 percent—and flow augmentation releases comprised a greater fraction of the flow. Summer 2008 was unusual, however, in the prolonged influence from the Wapato Lake agricultural area near Gaston in the upper part of the basin. The previous winter flooding and levee breach at Wapato Lake caused a much greater area of inundation. As a result, drainage from this area continued into July, much later than normal. A subsequent algal bloom in Wapato Lake then seeded the upper Tualatin River, and this drainage had a profound effect on the downstream plankton community. A large blue-green algae bloom developed—the largest in recent memory—prompting a public health advisory for recreational contact for about two weeks. Algal growths and surface blooms are a common feature of the Tualatin River. Most of the dominant algae have growth forms and morphologies that are well suited for planktonic life, employing spines and gas vacuoles to resist settling, forming colonies, and producing mucilage (or toxins) to resist zooplankton grazing. In 2006–08, 143 algal taxa were identified in 117 main-stem samples; diatoms and green algae were more diverse than blue-green, golden, and cryptophyte algae, although these later groups sometimes dominated the overall volumetric abundance (biovolume). The most frequently occurring taxa, occurring in 97–99 percent of samples, were flagellated cryptophytes Cryptomonas erosa and Rhodomonas minuta. Other important algal taxa included centric diatoms Stephanodiscus, Cyclotella, and Melosira species and colonial green algae Scenedesmus and Actinastrum. These taxa comprised the majority of the algal biovolume during much of the growing season. A general seasonal trend in the phytoplankton assemblages was observed, with dominance by filamentous centric diatoms Stephanodiscus and Melosira in spring and early summer, and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae, particularly Chlamydomonas sp., in late-summer; or, in 2008, dominance by blue-green algae Anabaena flos-aquae and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae during the Wapato Lake bloom event. There were 99 zooplankton taxa identified from the Tualatin River in 2006–08, composed primarily of cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers. A seasonal increase in zooplankton abundance was observed in early summer just as or shortly after the phytoplankton population began to increase, with populations growing to 15,000−120,000 organisms per cubic meter in the lower river. Zooplankton abundance showed a predictable and distinct longitudinal downstream increase, particularly downstream of Highway 99W (RM 11.6). Although grazing rates were not measured, the data suggest that, at times, zooplankton grazing may affect algal abundance and species composition in the Tualatin River, with diatoms becoming relatively less abundant and flagellated cryptophytes and green algae relatively more abundant during periods when zooplankton densities were highest. Multivariate statistical analyses identified soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), natural flow, flow augmentation, and WWTF effluent as important factors influencing Tualatin River phytoplankton populations, with zooplankton density (particularly rotifers and copepods), specific conductance, chloride, and water temperature also having an important influence. Although SRP was highly correlated with the plankton communities, that correlation was likely the result of high or low algal activity (uptake) as SRP concentrations were often reduced to low levels during blooms. While previous studies have already established that phosphorus, among other factors such as flow, places a theoretical cap on the size of the phytoplankton population in the river, sometimes algal declines occur when SRP concentrations are apparently sufficient. To identify alternative causal factors, additional analyses were performed without SRP to focus on other water-quality parameters, zooplankton density, and flow factors. Considering data for all 3 years and including just those samples from the lower Tualatin River not affected by the 2008 Wapato Lake drainage event, three factors (percentage of reservoir flow augmentation, total natural flow, and rotifer density) best explained variations in the phytoplankton assemblages. Analyses focusing on the possible causes of algal declines included the above multivariate analyses, scrutiny of 10 specific instances of declines in algal populations during 2003–08 including several bloom–crash sequences, and analyses of historic routine watershed monitoring data from Clean Water Services. Six factors were hypothesized to be important in causing bloom crashes or impeding blooms from rebounding in August: (1) light limitation from cloudy weather, (2) a reduction in the plankton inocula or “seed” entering the lower river from upstream sources, (3) increased summer streamflows, (4) changes in the dominant sources of flow as the percentage of flow augmentation and WWTF discharges have increased, (5) zooplankton grazing, and (6) low concentrations of bioavailable phosphorus (<0.015 milligram per liter). All of these hypotheses are supported in some fashion by the available data and statistical analyses. Zooplankton grazing, short-term declines in photosynthesis from cloudy weather, total flow as it affects residence time, and the dominant source of flow are primary factors responsible for the low-DO events caused by declines in algae in the lower Tualatin River during late summer. Cloudy weather and increased turbidity are known to inhibit algal growth in the Tualatin River, and slight increases in turbidity in recent years may be a problem. Upstream sources of algae are critical in determining the characteristics and size of downstream populations, as illustrated by the Wapato Lake bloom in 2008, but more data are needed from upstream to fully define the importance of this connection. The sources of flow, through their differential contribution of plankton inocula (quality and amount), were, at times, important factors affecting phytoplankton populations. While SRP concentrations were often most highly correlated with phytoplankton species community, the bioavailability of phosphorus is still somewhat unknown and there are several sources to consider. Preliminary bioassay tests suggested that while treated wastewater effluent may stimulate algae at 30 percent concentrations, negative effects (or decreased stimulation) on Chl-a and DO production may occur at concentrations of 50 percent. Targeted data collection and future research will be needed to further understand the importance of these factors on Tualatin River phytoplankton. While the data and analysis completed for this report provide insights into future research and monitoring that would be useful to continue, additional monitoring of turbidity, Chl-a, and plankton abundance and species composition in the upper part of the basin would enhance our understanding of plankton dynamics and factors affecting phytoplankton abundance in the lower river. Assessment of the key upstream sources of algal inocula via surveys of the major flow sources as well as tributaries and wetlands would provide useful information for the management of river water quality. Other studies that could prove useful for developing management strategies include targeted experiments to evaluate the bioavailability of phosphorus from a variety of sources. New research on phytoplankton–zooplankton interactions, and studies of planktivorous fish, might also provide insight about food web dynamics and potential “top-down” effects of fish predation on the plankton communities. In addition, further development of neural-network or other water-quality models would help to evaluate management strategies and provide forecasts of water-quality conditions. Finally, periodic future reassessments of the available data with the multivariate statistical tools used in this study would be helpful to assess whether and how plankton communities are changing, and to continue to shed light on the importance of factors shaping the plankton. Although certain types and sizes of algal blooms are undesirable, minimum phytoplankton populations are an important part of aquatic food webs and are needed to maintain healthy levels of DO in the river. By understanding the sources, characteristics, causal factors, and responses of the plankton communities, management strategies can be developed to improve DO conditions in the lower Tualatin River during the important summer low-flow period.

Oregon↗

Adaptive management: The U.S. Department of the Interior technical guide

The purpose of this technical guide is to present an operational definition of adaptive management, identify the conditions in which adaptive management should be considered, and describe the process of using adaptive management for managing natural resources. The guide is not an exhaustive discussion of adaptive management, nor does it include detailed specifications for individual projects. However, it should aid U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) managers and practitioners in determining when and how to apply adaptive management. Adaptive management is framed within the context of structured decision making, with an emphasis on uncertainty about resource responses to management actions and the value of reducing that uncertainty to improve management. Though learning plays a key role in adaptive management, it is seen here as a means to an end, namely good management, and not an end in itself. The operational definition used in the guide is adopted from the National Research Council, which characterizes adaptive management as an iterative learning process producing improved understanding and improved management over time: Adaptive management [is a decision process that] promotes flexible decision making that can be adjusted in the face of uncertainties as outcomes from management actions and other events become better understood. Careful monitoring of these outcomes both advances scientific understanding and helps adjust policies or operations as part of an iterative learning process. Adaptive management also recognizes the importance of natural variability in contributing to ecological resilience and productivity. It is not a ‘trial and error’ process, but rather emphasizes learning while doing. Adaptive management does not represent an end in itself, but rather a means to more effective decisions and enhanced benefits. Its true measure is in how well it helps meet environmental, social, and economic goals, increases scientific knowledge, and reduces tensions among stakeholders. Adaptive management as defined here involves ongoing, real-time learning and knowledge creation, both in a substantive sense and in terms of the adaptive process itself. It is described in what follows in a series of 9 steps, as summarized in section 4.1, involving stakeholder involvement, management objectives, management alternatives, predictive models, monitoring plans, decision making, monitoring responses to management, assessment, and adjustment to management actions. An adaptive approach actively engages stakeholders in all phases of a project over its timeframe, facilitating mutual learning and reinforcing the commitment to learning-based management. Adaptive management in DOI is implemented within a legal context that includes statutory authorities such as the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Endangered Species Act, and the Federal Advisory Committee Act. For many important problems now facing the resource management community, adaptive management holds great promise in reducing the uncertainties that limit the effective management of natural resource systems. For many conservation and management problems, utilizing management itself in an experimental context may be the only feasible way to gain the system understanding needed to improve management. Though it is commonly thought that an adaptive approach can produce results quickly at low cost, the opposite is more likely to be true. An initial investment of time and effort will increase the likelihood of better decision making and resource stewardship in the future, but patience, flexibility, and support are needed over the life of an adaptive management project. For these reasons it is important to carefully consider the potential use of an adaptive approach, and to engage in careful planning and evaluation when adaptive management is used.

Report↗

A multiscale investigation of habitat use and within-river distribution of sympatric sand darter species

The western sand darter Ammocrypta clara, and eastern sand darter Ammocrypta pellucida, are sand-dwelling fishes of conservation concern. Past research has emphasized the importance of studying individual populations of conservation concern, while recent research has revealed the importance of incorporating landscape scale processes that structure habitat mosaics and local populations. We examined habitat use and distributions of western and eastern sand darters in the lower Elk River of West Virginia. At the sandbar habitat use scale, western sand darters were detected in sandbars with greater area, higher proportions of coarse grain sand and faster bottom current velocity, while the eastern sand darter used a wider range of sandbar habitats. The landscape scale analysis revealed that contributing drainage area was an important predictor for both species, while sinuosity, which presumably represents valley type, also contributed to the western sand darter’s habitat suitability. Sandbar quality (area, grain size, and velocity) and fluvial geomorphic variables (drainage area and valley type) are likely key driving factors structuring sand darter distributions in the Elk River. This multiscale study of within-river species distribution and habitat use is unique, given that only a few sympatric populations are known of western and eastern sand darters.

West Virginia↗

Implementation of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations in Fortran and R

This report presents two methods for implementing the earthquake ground-motion prediction equations released in 2008 as part of the Next Generation Attenuation of Ground Motions (NGA-West, or NGA) project coordinated by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER). These models were developed for predicting ground-motion parameters for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions (such as California). Of the five ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed during the NGA project, four models are implemented: the GMPEs of Abrahamson and Silva (2008), Boore and Atkinson (2008), Campbell and Bozorgnia (2008), and Chiou and Youngs (2008a); these models are abbreviated as AS08, BA08, CB08, and CY08, respectively. Since site response is widely recognized as an important influence of ground motions, engineering applications typically require that such effects be modeled. The model of Idriss (2008) is not implemented in our programs because it does not explicitly include site response, whereas the other four models include site response and use the same variable to describe the site condition (VS30). We do not intend to discourage the use of the Idriss (2008) model, but we have chosen to implement the other four NGA models in our programs for those users who require ground-motion estimates for various site conditions. We have implemented the NGA models by using two separate programming languages: Fortran and R (R Development Core Team, 2010). Fortran, a compiled programming language, has been used in the scientific community for decades. R is an object-oriented language and environment for statistical computing that is gaining popularity in the statistical and scientific community. Derived from the S language and environment developed at Bell Laboratories, R is an open-source language that is freely available at http://www.r-project.org/ (last accessed 11 January 2011). In R, the functions for computing the NGA equations can be loaded as an add-on user-contributed code, which is referred to as a ?package? in R. The details of the nga package (Kaklamanos and Thompson, 2010) are presented in this report. In addition, differences between the R and Fortran implementations will be discussed later in this report. The NGA models have established a new baseline for seismic hazard assessments, and they have been incorporated into the most recent national seismic hazard maps published by the U.S. Geological Survey (Petersen and others, 2008). However, many of the new models are significantly more complicated than previous GMPEs and, therefore, require a substantial investment of time to implement and validate. We hope that the scientific and engineering communities find our implementations to be useful in research and practice. Our implementations may be considered as an alternate to the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet implementation available on the PEER NGA project Web site (http://peer.berkeley.edu/ngawest/, last accessed 11 January 2011). The implementations in Fortran and R are more appropriate for performing batch calculations than the implementation in Microsoft Excel. Spreadsheets and Fortran code for some of the individual models also are available on the PEER NGA project Web site; our programs implement the four GMPEs simultaneously. Our programs give the same results as the programs on the PEER NGA Web site, but we offer some additional flexibility of input, additional methods of estimating unknown input parameters, and additional options for output. Although these programs have been used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Tufts University, and others, no warranty, expressed or implied, is made by Tufts or the USGS as to the accuracy or functioning of the programs and related material, nor shall the fact of distribution constitute any such warranty, and no responsibility is assumed by Tufts or the USGS in connection therewith.

Open-File Report↗

Geologic control on the evolution of the inner shelf morphology offshore of the Mississippi barrier islands, northern Gulf of Mexico, USA

Between 2008 and 2013, high-resolution geophysical surveys were conducted around the Mississippi barrier islands and offshore. The sonar surveys included swath and single-beam bathymetry, sidescan, and chirp subbottom data collection. The geophysical data were groundtruthed using vibracore sediment collection. The results provide insight into the evolution of the inner shelf and the relationship between the near surface geologic framework and the morphology of the coastal zone. This study focuses on the buried Pleistocene fluvial deposits and late Holocene shore-oblique sand ridges offshore of Petit Bois Island and Petit Bois Pass. Prior to this study, the physical characteristics, evolution, and interrelationship of the ridges between both the shelf geology and the adjacent barrier island platform had not been evaluated. Numerous studies elsewhere along the coastal margin attribute shoal origin and sand-ridge evolution to hydrodynamic processes in shallow water (<20 m). Here we characterize the correlation between the geologic framework and surface morphology and demonstrate that the underlying stratigraphy must also be considered when developing an evolutionary conceptual model. It is important to understand this near surface, nearshore dynamic in order to understand how the stratigraphy influences the long-term response of the coastal zone to sea-level rise. The study also contributes to a growing body of work characterizing shore-oblique sand ridges which, along with the related geology, are recognized as increasingly important components to a nearshore framework whose origins and evolution must be understood and inventoried to effectively manage the coastal zone.

Continental Shelf Research↗

Identifying sources and year classes contributing to invasive grass carp in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Relative contributions of aquaculture-origin and naturally-reproduced grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) in the Laurentian Great Lakes have been unknown. We assessed occurrence and distribution of aquaculture-origin and wild grass carp in the Great Lakes using ploidy and otolith stable oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) data. We inferred natal river and dispersal from natal location for wild grass carp using otolith microchemistry and estimated ages of wild and aquaculture-origin fish to infer years in which natural reproduction and introductions occurred. Otolith δ 18 O indicated that the Great Lakes contain a mixture of wild grass carp and both diploid and triploid, aquaculture-origin grass carp. Eighty-eight percent of wild fish (n = 49 of 56) were caught in the Lake Erie basin. Otolith microchemistry indicated that most wild grass carp likely originated in the Sandusky or Maumee rivers where spawning has previously been confirmed, but results suggested recruitment from at least one other Great Lakes tributary may have occurred. Three fish showed evidence of movement between their inferred natal river in western Lake Erie and capture locations in other lakes in the Great Lakes basin. Age estimates indicated that multiple year classes of wild grass carp are present in the Lake Erie basin, recruitment to adulthood has occurred, and introductions of aquaculture-origin fish have happened over multiple years. Knowledge of sources contributing to grass carp in the Great Lakes basin will be useful for informing efforts to prevent further introductions and spread and to develop strategies to contain and control natural recruitment.

Michigan, New York, Ohio, Ontario↗