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USGS2012

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an efficient means to assess all of the hazards associated with these ash clouds.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2017

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: A study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples

Background The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. Methods A physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. Results Icelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m2 g−1, which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO•), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after ‘refreshing’ sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m−2, with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage. Conclusions The primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to increase ambient PM concentrations. This particularly applies to highly explosive silicic eruptions, but can also hold true for explosive basaltic eruptions or discrete events associated with basaltic fissure eruptions.

Environmental Health↗

USGS2022

Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast

Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited. This effort presents methodology to assess the probability of erosion and flooding for the U.S. West Coast from extreme total water levels (TWLs), but the approach is applicable to coastal settings worldwide. TWLs were derived from 61 years of wave and water level data at shore-perpendicular transects every 100-m along open coast shorelines. At each location, wave data from the Global Ocean Waves model were downscaled to the nearshore and used to empirically calculate wave run-up. Tides were simulated using the Oregon State University’s tidal data inversion model and non-tidal residuals were calculated from sea-surface temperature and pressure anomalies. Wave run-up was combined with still water levels to generate hourly TWL estimates and extreme TWLs for multiple return periods. Extremes were compared to onshore morphology to determine erosion hazards and define the probability of collision, overwash, and inundation.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2001

Tampa Bay Integrated Science Pilot Study: Baseline mapping, land surface dynamics and predictive modeling, and hazards vulnerability studies

Tampa Bay and its environs have experienced phenomenal urban growth and significant changes in land cover and land-use practices over the past 50 years. This trend is expected to continue, with the impact of human activity broadening geographically and intensifying throughout the region. One of the immediate impacts of urban growth is the creation of additional impervious surfaces, which in turn, generate increased urban runoff that contributes to higher levels of nutrient loading in water bodies throughout the area. To better understand these and other anthropogenic affects on the ecology of the natural environment of the region, this component of the Tampa Bay Pilot Study took a broad basin-wide view. This regional view was intended to provide geographic and temporal context for the smaller intensely studied sample field site locations within the estuarine environment.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2001

Assessment of injury to fish and wildlife resources in the Grand Calumet River and Indiana Harbor Area of Concern, USA

This article is the second in a series of three that describes the results of a Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) conducted in the Grand Calumet River and Indiana Harbor Area of Concern (IHAOC). The assessment area is located in northwest Indiana and was divided into nine reaches to facilitate the assessment. This component of the NRDA was undertaken to determine if fish and wildlife resources have been injured due to exposure to contaminants that are associated with discharges of oil or releases of other hazardous substances. To support this assessment, information was compiled on the chemical composition of sediment and tissues; on the toxicity of whole sediments, pore water, and elutriates to fish; on the status of fish communities; and on fish health. The data on each of these indicators were compared to regionally relevant benchmarks to assess the presence and extent of injury to fish and wildlife resources. The results of this assessment indicate that injury to fish and wildlife resources has occurred throughout the assessment area, with up to five distinct lines of evidence demonstrating injury within the various reaches. Based on the frequency of exceedance of the benchmarks for assessing sediment and tissue chemistry data, total polychlorinated biphenyls is the primary bioaccumulative contaminant of concern in the assessment area. It is important to note, however, that this assessment was restricted by the availability of published bioaccumulation-based sediment quality guidelines, tissue residue guidelines, and other benchmarks of sediment quality conditions. The availability of chemistry data for tissues also restricted this assessment in certain reaches of the assessment area. Furthermore, insufficient information was located to facilitate identification of the substances that are causing or substantially contributing to effects on fish (i.e., sediment toxicity, impaired fish health, or impaired fish community structure). Therefore, substances not included on the list of COCs cannot necessarily be considered to be of low priority with respect to sediment injury (e.g., metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, alkanes, alkenes, organochlorine pesticides, phthalates, dioxins, and furans, etc.).

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗

USGS2023

Surface fault displacement models for strike-slip faults

Fault displacement models (FDMs) are an essential component of the probabilistic fault displacement hazard analyses (PFDHA), much like ground motion models in the probabilistic seismic hazard analyses for ground motion hazards. In this study, we develop several principal surface FDMs for strike-slip earthquakes. The model development is based on analyses of the new and comprehensive fault displacement database developed as part of the Fault Displacement Hazard Initiative project led by the University of California, Los Angeles. The main objective of our study is to update the FDMs that were developed over a decade ago by the U.S. Geological Survey and California Geological Survey, in which a reference trace was drawn manually, FDMs are fixed-effect models for lateral displacement, displacement on multiple subparallel ruptures is not aggregated, magnitude (M) scaling is linear, and natural logarithm of displacement is assumed to be normally distributed.

Report GIRS↗

USGS1971

Distribution of copper, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic in the surface sediments off the coast of northwestern Alaska

Increasing interest in potentially harmful substances utilized and discarded by man has raised question about the normal distribution of chemical elements in the natural environment. This interest prompted a baseline study of a pristine region off the northern coast of Alaska. Information was gathered on currents, water clarity, nutrients, temperature and salinity, zooplakton, benthic communities, neritic fauna, bird and mammal population and pesticide residues, sediment composition and chemistry of the sediments and their interstitial waters. This information will provide a base for ascertaining and evaluating future changes and for assessment of the potential hazard in this region and ecosystems elsewhere.

Alaska↗

USGS1997

Test-trench studies in the Amargosa Desert, southern Nevada: Results and application of information to landfill covers in arid environments

As arid sites in the western United States are increasingly sought for disposal of the Nation's hazardous wastes and as volumes of locally generated wastes increase, concern about the potential effect of contaminants on environmental quality is being raised. Studies at the U.S. Geological Survey's Amargosa Desert research site near Beatty, Nevada are being done to evaluate mechanisms that can affect waste isolation in an arid environment. Precipitation at the site averages about 108 mm yr -1 . Results have shown that, under undisturbed conditions, the naturally stratified soils in combination with native plants are effective in limiting the potential for percolation of precipitation. Under nonvegetated waste-site conditions, data indicated the accumulation and shallow, but continued, penetration of infiltrated water, However, water potentials below the test trenches and below the 2-m depth for nonvegetated soil indicated the persistence of an upward driving force for water flow during the 5-yr test period. General trends in trench-cover subsidence suggested a positive relation with cumulative precipitation, but subsidence did not appear to have a measurable effect on the water balance. Erosion rates were inversely related to near-surface rock-fragment content. Results suggest that the ultimate fate of contaminants buried at properly managed solid-waste sites may be determined largely by the interactions among climate and the surface-cover features of the disposal facility, and how these factors change with time.

Nevada↗

USGS2014

Debris flow from 2012 failure of moraine-dammed lake, Three Fingered Jack volcano, Mount Jefferson Wilderness, Oregon

In the late spring or early summer of 2012, a flood emanated from a small moraine-dammed lake on the northeast flank of Three Fingered Jack in the Mount Jefferson Wilderness. Channel erosion or slope collapse breached the natural dam of the lake, leading to a sudden lowering of lake level by 2.8 m and discharge of 12,700 cubic meters (m 3 ) of water. The resulting debris flow formed a bouldery deposit extending about 0.35 km downslope. The Three Fingered Jack debris flow is one of several that have issued from moraine-dammed lakes in the Oregon Cascade Range. A thorough summary of those lakes and the hazards associated with them was published in 2001, based largely on fieldwork by Jim O’Connor and Jasper Hardison in the early 1990s. Described here are details of the 2012 event, an update to the O’Connor story begun earlier.

Oregon↗

USGS2017

Field-trip guide to Mount St. Helens, Washington - An overview of the eruptive history and petrology, tephra deposits, 1980 pyroclastic density current deposits, and the crater

This field trip will provide an introduction to several fascinating features of Mount St. Helens. The trip begins with a rigorous hike of about 15 km from the Johnston Ridge Observatory (9 km north-northeast of the crater vent), across the 1980 Pumice Plain, to Windy Ridge (3.6 km northeast of the crater vent) to examine features that document the dynamics and progressive emplacement of pyroclastic flows. The next day, we examine classic tephra outcrops of the past 3,900 years and observe changes in thickness and character of these deposits as we traverse their respective lobes. We examine clasts in the deposits and discuss how the petrology and geochemistry of Mount St. Helens deposits reveal the evolution of the magmatic system through time. We also investigate the stratigraphy of the 1980 blast deposit and review the chronology of this iconic eruption as we travel through the remains of the blown-down forest. The third day is another rigorous hike, about 13 km round trip, climbing from the base of Windy Ridge (elevation 1,240 m) to the front of the Crater Glacier (elevation 1,700 m). En route we examine basaltic andesite and basalt lava flows emplaced between 1,800 and 1,700 years before present, a heterolithologic flow deposit produced as the 1980 blast and debris avalanche interacted, debris-avalanche hummocks that are stranded on the north flank and in the crater mouth, and shattered dacite lava domes that were emplaced between 3,900 and 2,600 years before present. These domes underlie the northern part of the volcano. In addition, within the crater we traverse well-preserved pyroclastic-flow deposits that were emplaced on the crater floor during the summer of 1980, and a beautiful natural section through the 1980 deposits in the upper canyon of the Loowit River. Before plunging into the field-trip log, we provide an overview of Mount St. Helens geology, geochemistry, petrology, and volcanology as background. The volcano has been referred to as a “master teacher.” The 1980 eruption and studies both before and after 1980 played a major role in the establishment of the modern U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program and our understanding of flank collapses, debris avalanches, cryptodomes, blasts, pyroclastic density currents, and lahars, as well as the dynamics of magma ascent and eruption.

Washington↗

USGS1976

Reproductive rate and temporal spacing of nesting of red-winged blackbirds in upland habitat

The literature contains numerous studies on Red-winged Blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ) reproduction. Francis (1971) summarized eight studies dealing with nesting success. These and other studies have also provided information on breeding chronology, clutch sizes, sex ratios, survival rates for eggs and nestlings, reproductive physiology, and other life history aspects of reproduction. With few exceptions, these studies have provided no data on the number of young fledged per female, per territorial male, or per unit area. This is especially true for upland nesting habitats where, at least in the midwestern United States, most Red-wings now nest (Graber and Graber 1963, Dyer et al. 1973). Also insufficient quantitative information is available on the extent and nature of renesting (i.e. nesting more than once in a nesting season) and on movements of adult females during the nesting season. A better understanding of these aspects of reproduction is critical for the development of an accurate population-dynamics model for the species. Such a model is sorely needed to evaluate the impact and effectiveness of proposed population management strategies in places where blackbirds are deemed a health or safety hazard, or cause damage to agricultural crops (Tosh et al. 1970, Solman 1971, Stone et al. 1972). This study had three objectives: (1) to determine the distribution, size, and number of Red-winged Blackbird territories for an old-field habitat; (2) to determine the number of nesting females, nesting success, extent of renesting, and number of young fledged for these territories; and (3) to examine movements of female Red-wings during the nesting season.

The Auk↗

USGS2022

Spatially continuous models of aleatory variability in seismic site response for southern California

We develop an empirical, spatially continuous model for the single-station within-event ( ϕ SS ) component of earthquake ground motion variability in the Los Angeles area. ϕ SS represents event-to-event variability in site response or remaining variability due to path effects not captured by ground motion models. Site-specific values of ϕ SS at permanent seismic network stations were estimated during our previous work [1]. Here we first fit a model to ϕ SS conditioned on the time-averaged shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m (V S30 ). We observe that stations on soft soil have larger average variability in site response than those on rock, especially at short periods. We use regression kriging to spatially interpolate ϕ SS to an even grid spacing, using the V S30 -scaling as the background model [2]. This improves on previous work that used ordinary kriging for interpolation [1]. We find that ϕ SS ranges from about 0.1 to 0.4 natural log units in our study area, representing variations in site response at single locations of a factor of 1.1 up to a factor of 1.5. There is both greater variability and more coherency in the variability for short-period site response than for long periods. We recommend using these ϕ SS models with the site response models of [1] for applications where quantification of variability is needed, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analyses.

California↗

USGS2022

Assessment of a habitat equivalency analysis for freshwater mussels in the upper Mississippi River

The upper Mississippi River (UMR) contains diverse, dense, and reproducing assemblages of native freshwater mussels. In the case of an injury to mussels and their habitats, such as a hazardous material spill, train derailment, or barge grounding, resource managers have few restoration strategies. Resource managers need a means to document, quantify, and mitigate adverse effects on mussels resulting from injury. Habitat equivalency analysis (HEA), developed for use with a wide variety of habitat types, is a restoration scaling technique that compares ecological services lost from injury to ecological services gained through restoration actions. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Iowa Department of Natural Resources modified the HEA for use with native mussels. The mussel HEA has been applied within the UMR to estimate the quantity of restoration needed to compensate the public for injuries to mussels due to contaminant spills and construction projects. Our objective was to describe the UMR HEA for a general audience and assess if the four biological input variables used in the mussel HEA were reasonable based on literature values. We also evaluated the performance of HEA under a range of input scenarios. Although the input estimates used in HEA were within ranges reported in the peer-reviewed literature or were supported by professional judgment in the absence of peer-reviewed literature, outcomes of the mussel HEA were highly variable and would benefit from additional research to reduce uncertainty in the biological inputs. The application of HEA to mussels provides resource managers with a tool to quantify mussel-related ecological services lost from injury and to guide restoration efforts in the UMR.

Freshwater Mollusk Biology and Conservation↗

USGS2019

Extreme coastal water level in Washington state: Guidance to support sea level rise planning

This document provides guidelines for assessing exposure to future coastal flooding during extreme coastal water level events – whether these are due to tides, surge, wave run-up, or, more likely, a combination of the three. These guidelines provide information about the current and future magnitude of extreme coastal water levels across Washington State and the underlying processes that influence them. This information is intended to be combined with sea level projections to assess future exposure to coastal flooding along Washington’s coastline. Although the results of our analyses can be combined with any available sea level projections, this report is intended as a companion to the localized sea level rise projections (Miller et al., 2018) developed as part of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project. The Washington Coastal Resilience Project was a three-year effort to rapidly increase the state’s capacity to prepare for sea level rise. The project aimed to improve risk projections, provide better guidelines for land use planners and strengthen capital investment programs for coastal restoration and infrastructure. Partners in the Washington Coastal Resilience Project included Washington Sea Grant, Washington Department of Ecology, Island County, King County, NOAA Office for Coastal Management, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Padilla Bay National Estuary Research Reserve, The City of Tacoma, The Nature Conservancy, U.S. Geological Survey, University of Oregon, University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and Western Washington University. The 2018 sea level projections are described in an accompanying technical report, along with a review of the science related to sea level rise (Miller et al., 2018). The report and all associated supporting information are available on the Washington Coastal Hazards Resilience Network website (http://www.wacoastalnetwork.com/).

Washington↗

USGS2016

Surficial geological tools in fluvial geomorphology: Chapter 2

Increasingly, environmental scientists are being asked to develop an understanding of how rivers and streams have been altered by environmental stresses, whether rivers are subject to physical or chemical hazards, how they can be restored, and how they will respond to future environmental change. These questions present substantive challenges to the discipline of fluvial geomorphology, especially since decades of geomorphologic research have demonstrated the general complexity of fluvial systems. It follows from the concept of complex response that synoptic and short-term historical views of rivers will often give misleading understanding of future behavior. Nevertheless, broadly trained geomorphologists can address questions involving complex natural systems by drawing from a tool box that commonly includes the principles and methods of geology, hydrology, hydraulics, engineering, and ecology.

Book chapter↗

USGS1979

Surface subsidence and collapse in relation to extraction of salt and other soluble evaporites

Extraction of soluble minerals, whether by natural or man-induced processes, can result in localized land-surface subsidence and more rarely sinkhole formation. One process cited by many investigators is that uncontrolled dissolving of salt or other soluble evaporites can create or enlarge underground cavities, thereby increasing the span of the unsupported roof to the strength limit of the overlying rocks. Downwarping results when spans are exceeded, or collapse of the undermined roof leads to upward sloping or chimneying of the overburden rocks. If underground space is available for rock debris to collect, the void can migrate to the surface with the end result being surface subsidence or collapse. In North America natural solution subsidence and collapse features in rocks ranging in age from Silurian to the present are found in evaporite terranes in the Great Plains from Saskatchewan in the north to Texas and New Mexico in the south, in the Great Lakes area, and in the southeastern States. Man-induced subsidence and collapse in evaporites are generally associated with conventional or solution mining, oilfield operations, and reservoir and dam construction, and can be especially hazardous in populated or built-up areas.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1992

The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Strong ground motion and ground failure

Professional Paper 1551 describes the effects at the land surface caused by the Loma Prieta earthquake. These effects: include the pattern and characteristics of strong ground shaking, liquefaction of both floodplain deposits along the Pajaro and Salinas Rivers in the Monterey Bay region and sandy artificial fills along the margins of San Francisco Bay, landslides in the epicentral region, and increased stream flow. Some significant findings and their impacts were: * Strong shaking that was amplified by a factor of about two by soft soils caused damage at up to 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the epicenter. * Instrumental recordings of the ground shaking have been used to improve how building codes consider site amplification effects from soft soils. * Liquefaction at 134 locations caused $99.2 million of the total earthquake loss of $5.9 billion. Liquefaction of floodplain deposits and sandy artificial fills was similar in nature to that which occurred in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and indicated that many areas remain susceptible to liquefaction damage in the San Francisco and Monterey Bay regions. * Landslides caused $30 million in earthquake losses, damaging at least 200 residences. Many landslides showed evidence of movement in previous earthquakes. * Recognition of the similarities between liquefaction and landslides in 1906 and 1989 and research in intervening years that established methodologies to map liquefaction and landslide hazards prompted the California legislature to pass in 1990 the Seismic Hazards Mapping Act that required the California Geological Survey to delineate regulatory zones of areas potentially susceptible to these hazards. * The earthquake caused the flow of many streams in the epicentral region to increase. Effects were noted up to 88 km from the epicenter. * Post-earthquake studies of the Marina District of San Francisco provide perhaps the most comprehensive case history of earthquake effects at a specific site developed for any earthquake. Soft soils beneath the Marina amplified ground shaking to damaging levels and caused liquefaction of sandy artificial fills. Liquefaction required 123 repairs of pipelines in the Municipal Water Supply System, more than three times the number of repairs elsewhere in the system. Approximately 13.6 km of gas-distribution lines were replaced, and more than 20% of the wastewater collection lines were repaired or replaced.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2001

An assessment of injury to sediments and sediment-dwelling organisms in the Grand Calumet River and Indiana Harbor Area of Concern, USA

This article is the first in a series of three that describe the results of a Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) conducted in the Grand Calumet River and Indiana Harbor Area of Concern (IHAOC). The assessment area is located in northwest Indiana and was divided into nine reaches to facilitate the assessment. This component of the NRDA was undertaken to determine if sediments and sediment-dwelling organisms have been injured due to exposure to contaminants that have accumulated in sediments as a result of discharges of oil or releases of other hazardous substances from industrial, municipal, and nonpoint sources. To support this assessment, information was compiled on the chemical composition of sediment and pore water; on the toxicity of whole sediments, pore water, and elutriates; and on the status of benthic invertebrate communities. The data on each of these indicators were compared to regionally relevant benchmarks to assess the presence and extent of injury to surface water resources (i.e., sediments) or biological resources (i.e., sediment-dwelling organisms). The results of this assessment indicate that sediment injury has occurred throughout the assessment area, with up to four distinct lines of evidence demonstrating injury within the various reaches. The primary contaminants of concern (i.e., those substances that are present at concentrations that are sufficient to cause or substantially contribute to sediment injury) include metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and total polychlorinated biphenyls.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗