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Water quality and geochemical modeling of water at an abandoned coal mine reclaimed With coal combustion by-products

An abandoned coal mine in eastern Ohio was reclaimed with 125 tons per acre of pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC) by-product. Water quality at the site (known as the Fleming site) was monitored for 7 years after reclamation; samples included water from soil-suction lysimeters (interstitial water), wells, and spring sites established downgradient of the application area. This report presents a summary of data collected at the Fleming site during the period September 1994 through June 2001. Additionally, results of geochemical modeling are included in this report to evaluate the potential fate of elements derived from the PFBC by-product. Chemical analyses of samples of interstitial waters within the PFBC by-product application area indicated elevated levels of pH and specific conductance and elevated concentrations of boron, calcium, chloride, fluoride, magnesium, potassium, strontium, and sulfate compared to water samples collected in a control area where traditional reclamation methods were used. Magnesium-to-calcium (Mg:Ca) mole ratios and sulfur-isotope ratios were used to trace the PFBC by-product leachate and showed that little, if any, leachate reached ground water. Concentrations of most constituents in interstitial waters in the application-area decreased during the seven sampling rounds and approached background concentrations observed in the control area; however, median pH in the application area remained above 6, indicating that some acid-neutralizing capacity was still present. Although notable changes in water quality were observed in interstitial waters during the study period, quality of ground water and spring water remained poor. Water from the Fleming site was not potable, given exceedances of primary and secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for inorganic constituents in drinking water set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Only fluoride and sulfate, which were found in higher concentrations in application-area interstitial waters than in control-area interstitial waters, could be related to the PFBC by-product. Concentrations of arsenic, lead, and selenium typically were at or below the detection limits (generally 1 or 2 micrograms per liter). Elements detected at elevated concentrations in PFBC by-product application-area interstitial waters were not evident in downgradient ground water or spring water. Dilution of leachate by ground water was confirmed with a mixing model generated by the computer code NETPATH. Additionally, thermodynamic modeling of the chemical composition of water samples by use of the computer code PHREEQC indicated favorable conditions for precipitation of secondary minerals in the unsaturated zone and in aquifer materials. Because of low application rates of PFBC by-product and precipitation and sorption of elements in the unsaturated zone, it is improbable that concentrations of any toxic elements of concern (arsenic, lead, or selenium) will exceed drinking-water standards at this site or other sites where similar volumes of PFBC by-products are used.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Summary of the reconnaissance investigation of the diamond resource potential and production capacity of Côte d’Ivoire

This study presents the results of a multiyear effort to monitor the diamond mining activities of Côte d’Ivoire’s two main diamond regions, Séguéla and Tortiya. The innovative approach developed for this study integrates archival reports and maps, high-resolution satellite imagery, and terrain modeling to assess the diamond resource potential and production capacity of the Séguéla and Tortiya deposits. A geologic resource assessment was conducted to calculate the remaining diamond reserves for Séguéla and Tortiya using archival geologic data, including gravel grade and thickness recorded by the Ivorian mining company Société pour le Développement Minier (SODEMI). These data were combined with terrain analysis and geomorphological maps in a geological process-driven model. After accounting for previous production, a total of 10,100,000 carats are estimated to be remaining in Séguéla and a total of 1,100,000 carats are estimated to be remaining in Tortiya, based on currently known deposits.

Fact Sheet↗

1-Meter Digital Elevation Model specification

In January 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey National Geospatial Technical Operations Center began producing the 1-Meter Digital Elevation Model data product. This new product was developed to provide high resolution bare-earth digital elevation models from light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data and other elevation data collected over the conterminous United States (lower 48 States), Hawaii, and potentially Alaska and the U.S. territories. The 1-Meter Digital Elevation Model consists of hydroflattened, topographic bare-earth raster digital elevation models, with a 1-meter x 1-meter cell size, and is available in 10,000-meter x 10,000-meter square blocks with a 6-meter overlap. This report details the specifications required for the production of the 1-Meter Digital Elevation Model.

Techniques and Methods↗

ModelMuse - A Graphical User Interface for MODFLOW-2005 and PHAST

ModelMuse is a graphical user interface (GUI) for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) models MODFLOW-2005 and PHAST. This software package provides a GUI for creating the flow and transport input file for PHAST and the input files for MODFLOW-2005. In ModelMuse, the spatial data for the model is independent of the grid, and the temporal data is independent of the stress periods. Being able to input these data independently allows the user to redefine the spatial and temporal discretization at will. This report describes the basic concepts required to work with ModelMuse. These basic concepts include the model grid, data sets, formulas, objects, the method used to assign values to data sets, and model features. The ModelMuse main window has a top, front, and side view of the model that can be used for editing the model, and a 3-D view of the model that can be used to display properties of the model. ModelMuse has tools to generate and edit the model grid. It also has a variety of interpolation methods and geographic functions that can be used to help define the spatial variability of the model. ModelMuse can be used to execute both MODFLOW-2005 and PHAST and can also display the results of MODFLOW-2005 models. An example of using ModelMuse with MODFLOW-2005 is included in this report. Several additional examples are described in the help system for ModelMuse, which can be accessed from the Help menu.

Techniques and Methods↗

Hydrologic characterization of Bushy Park Reservoir, South Carolina, 2013–15

The Bushy Park Reservoir is a relatively shallow impoundment in a semi-tropical climate and is the principal water supply for the 400,000 people of the city of Charleston, South Carolina, and the surrounding areas including the Bushy Park Industrial Complex. Although there is an adequate supply of freshwater in the reservoir, taste-and-odor water-quality issues are a concern. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted an investigation in cooperation with the Charleston Water System to study the hydrology and hydrodynamics of the Bushy Park Reservoir to identify factors affecting water-quality conditions. Specifically, five areas for monitoring and (or) analysis were addressed: (1) hydrologic monitoring of the reservoir to establish a water budget, (2) flow monitoring in the tunnels to compute flow from Bushy Park Reservoir and at critical distribution junctions, (3) water-quality sampling, profiling, and continuous monitoring to identify the causes of taste-and-odor occurrence, (4) technical evaluation of appropriate hydrodynamic and water-quality simulation models for the reservoir, and (5) preliminary evaluation of alternative reservoir operations scenarios. This report describes the hydrodynamic and hydrologic data collected from 2013 to 2015 to support the application and calibration of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and the water-quality monitoring and analysis to gain insight into the principal causes of the Bushy Park Reservoir taste-and-odor episodes. The existing U.S. Geological Survey real-time network on the West Branch of the Cooper River was augmented with a tidal flow gage on Durham Canal Back River, and Foster Creek. The Charleston Water System intake structure was instrumented to collect water-level, water temperature (top and bottom probes), specific conductance (top and bottom probes), wind speed and direction, and photosynthetically active radiation data. In addition to the gages attached to fixed structures, four bottom-mounted velocity profilers were deployed at six locations over different periods. The deployment period for the velocity profiler ranged from 2 weeks to 4 months. During the investigation, tidal cycle (13-hour) streamflow measurements were made at 30-minute intervals at five locations. The Williams Station is a coal-fired powerplant that withdraws water from Bushy Park Reservoir for cooling purposes. The magnitude of the withdrawal (approximately 550 million gallons per day) is the major factor controlling the circulation in the reservoir. The net flow in Durham Canal to the reservoir is comparable to the withdrawal rates of the powerplant. When the Williams Station is not withdrawing water, the net flow in Durham Canal quickly goes to zero or reverses with a net flow away from the reservoir and to the Cooper River. Plan views of the velocity vectors for the tidal cycle streamflow measurements and rose diagram of the velocity profilers created with the Williams Station withdrawing and not withdrawing water show substantial effects of the distribution of magnitude and direction of the water velocities.

South Carolina↗

Evaluation of hydrologic simulation models for fields with subsurface drainage to mitigated wetlands in Barnes, Dickey, and Sargent Counties, North Dakota

Proper identification of wetlands, along with a better understanding of the hydrology of mitigated wetlands, is needed to assist with conservation efforts aimed at maintaining the productivity and ecological function (wetland mitigation) of agricultural lands. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service, completed a study to evaluate two models for simulating hydrologic conditions in fields with subsurface drainage to mitigated wetlands at several sites in North Dakota. These two models were evaluated as possible tools for water resource managers to use for designing wetland mitigation projects in the area in the future. The Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Water (SPAW) model simulates the daily hydrologic water budgets of agricultural landscapes by two linked routines, one for farm fields (field hydrology) and one for impoundments such as wetlands and ponds (pond model). The DRAINMOD model was used in conjunction with the SPAW model because although the SPAW model can be used to simulate the hydrology of small drainage basins containing wetlands, the SPAW model does not contain routines to simulate drainage, either subsurface drainage or surface (drainage ditches), that can directly affect the wetland hydrology. The wetlands in the study areas in this report are all downstream from and adjacent to drained agricultural fields. SPAW and DRAINMOD models were developed and calibrated at three study areas (study areas B, D, and S) to evaluate how the models simulated field-scale hydrologic characteristics and the water balance in wetlands from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2018. The SPAW model developed for study area B included five modeled fields in the field hydrology portion of SPAW that contributed inflow to one wetland simulated in the pond model portion of SPAW. Simulated wetland water depths were most similar to water depths measured at site BWET1, with an absolute mean error of 0.10 foot and a root mean square error of 0.14 foot. Site BWET2 had slightly larger errors, with an absolute mean error of 0.22 foot and a root mean square error of 0.28 foot. Simulated water depths were similar to the pattern of measured water depths at BWET1 and BWET2 from about mid-April 2018 through about mid-September 2018, but overpredicted water depths in the fall from about mid-September 2018 through about mid-October 2018. The SPAW model developed for study area D included six modeled fields in the field hydrology portion of SPAW that contributed inflow to five wetlands connected in series in the pond model portion of SPAW. Simulated water depths compared relatively well to water depths in the five wetlands, with the absolute mean error ranging from 0.17 foot (DWET1) to 0.39 foot (DWET2), and the root mean square error ranging from 0.28 foot (DWET1) to 0.56 foot (DWET5). The SPAW model developed for study area S included one modeled field in the field hydrology portion of SPAW that contributed inflow to one wetland in the pond model portion of SPAW. Among the SPAW models developed for the three study areas, the model for study area S had the best comparison between simulated and measured water depths, with an absolute mean error of 0.06 foot and a root mean square error of 0.10 foot. DRAINMOD models were developed and calibrated at the three study areas and provided inflow from subsurface drainage discharge to the SPAW models for simulating water levels in wetlands in the study areas. The calibrated DRAINMOD model for study area B showed the variability of hydrologic processes in the modeled field throughout the wide range of hydrologic conditions from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2018. In general, the discharge through the modeled subsurface drainage system was in the spring and early summer (April through June) most years, with little to no discharge later in the year. Although the subsurface drainage system in study area D was the most complex among the three study areas and was simplified into a uniform system within DRAINMOD, simulated water table depths at study area D correlated better to measured water table depths compared to results from the model applications at the other two study areas. Simulated water table depths had an absolute mean error of 0.30 foot and root mean square error of 0.37 foot at site DGW1 and an absolute mean error of 0.29 foot and a root mean square error of 0.34 foot at site DGW2. Although the subsurface drainage system in study area S was the simplest and the modeled field was the smallest among the three study areas, simulated water table depths at study area S did not correlate as well to measured water table depths compared to results from the model applications at the other two study areas. The SPAW and DRAINMOD model applications at the three study areas in southeast North Dakota adequately simulated the hydrologic processes for fields with subsurface drainage that are connected to adjacent wetlands. However, more measured data would be needed to fully evaluate the models throughout the range of possible climatic conditions.

North Dakota↗

Preliminary evaluation of the importance of existing hydraulic-head observation locations to advective-transport predictions, Death Valley regional flow system, California and Nevada

When a model is calibrated by nonlinear regression, calculated diagnostic statistics and measures of uncertainty provide a wealth of information about many aspects of the system. This report presents a method of ranking the likely importance of existing observation locations using measures of prediction uncertainty. It is suggested that continued monitoring is warranted at more important locations, and unwarranted or less warranted at less important locations. The report develops the methodology and then demonstrates it using the hydraulic-head observation locations of a three-layer model of the Death Valley regional flow system. The predictions of interest are subsurface transport from beneath Yucca Mountain and 14 Underground Test Areas. The advective component of transport is considered because it is the component most affected by the system dynamics represented by the scale model being used. The problem is addressed using the capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey computer program MODFLOW-2000, with its ADVective-Travel Observation (ADV) Package, and an additional computer program developed for this work. The methods presented in this report are used in three ways. (1) The ratings for individual observations are obtained by manipulating the measures of prediction uncertainty, and do not involve recalibrating the model. In this analysis, observation locations are each omitted individually and the resulting increase in uncertainty in the predictions is calculated. The uncertainty is quantified as standard deviations on the simulated advective transport. The increase in uncertainty is quantified as the percent increase in the standard deviations caused by omitting the one observation location from the calculation of standard deviations. In general, observation locations associated with larger increases are rated as more important. (2) Ratings for largely geographically based groups are obtained using a straightforward extension of the method used for individual observation locations. This analysis is needed where observations are clustered to determine whether the area is important to the predictions of interest. (3) Finally, the method is used to evaluate omitting a set of 100 observation locations. The locations were selected because they had low individual ratings and were not one of the few locations at which hydraulic heads from deep in the system were measured. The major results of the three analyses, when applied to the three-layer DVRFS ground-water flow system, are described in the following paragraphs. The discussion is labeled using the numbers 1 to 3 to clearly relate it to the three ways the method is used, as listed above. (1) The individual observation location analysis indicates that three observation locations are most important. They are located in Emigrant Valley, Oasis Valley, and Beatty. Of importance is that these and other observations shown to be important by this analysis are far from the travel paths considered. This displays the importance of the regional setting within which the transport occurs, the importance of including some sites throughout the area in the monitoring network, and the importance of including sites in these areas in particular. The method considered in this report indicates that the 19 observation locations that reflect hydraulic heads deeper in the system (in model layers 1, 2, and 3) are not very important. This appears to be because the locations of these observations are in the vicinity of shallow observation locations that also generally are rated as low importance, and because the model layers are hydraulically well connected vertically. The value of deep observations to testing conceptual models, however, is stressed. As a result, the deep observations are rated higher than is consistent with the results of the analysis presented, and none of these observations are omitted in the scenario discussed under (3) below. (2) The geographic grouping of th

California, Nevada↗

Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins Geohydrology and optimal water resources management—Developed using density dependent solute transport and optimization models

Groundwater has been a part of the city of Santa Barbara’s water-supply portfolio since the 1800s; however, since the 1960s, the majority of the city’s water has come from local surface water, and the remainder has come from groundwater, State Water Project, recycled water, increased water conservation, and as needed, seawater desalination. Although groundwater from the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins only accounts for a small percentage of the long-term supply, it is an important source of supplemental water during times of surface-water shortages. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, production wells extracted additional groundwater to compensate for drought related water-delivery shortfalls from other sources; in response, water levels declined substantially in the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins (below sea level in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin). In coastal basins that have groundwater extraction near shore, seawater intrusion is often a problem. Seawater intrusion in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin is thought to be more limited than in other coastal basins because of an offshore fault that acts as a partial barrier to groundwater flow. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, seawater intrusion was observed in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, as indicated by increased chloride concentrations at several monitoring wells that ranged from 200 ft to 1,300 ft from the ocean and as close as 2,900 ft to the nearest pumping well. This demonstrated that seawater can intrude into the Santa Barbara groundwater basin when groundwater levels fall below sea level near the coast. The city of Santa Barbara is interested in developing a better understanding of the sustainability of its groundwater supplies. In 2014, California adopted historic legislation to manage its groundwater: the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA requires the development and implementation of “Groundwater Sustainability Plans” in 127 priority groundwater basins; although Santa Barbara was not a designated priority basin, the city is taking steps to achieve sustainability. Sustainability was defined in the SGMA in terms of avoiding undesirable results: significant and unreasonable groundwater-level declines, reduction in groundwater storage, seawater intrusion, water-quality degradation, land subsidence, and surface-water depletion. In this project, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the city of Santa Barbara, sustainable yield is defined as the volume of groundwater that can be pumped from storage without causing water-level drawdowns and the associated increases in seawater intrusion (as indicated by increases in measured chloride concentrations) at selected wells. In order to estimate the sustainability of Santa Barbara’s groundwater basins, a three-dimensional density-dependent groundwater-flow and solute-transport model (the Santa Barbara Flow and Transport Model, or SBFTM) was developed on the basis of an existing groundwater-flow model. To simulate seawater intrusion to the Santa Barbara Basin under various management strategies, the SBFTM uses the USGS code SEAWAT to simulate salinity transport and variable-density flow. The completed SBFTM was coupled with a management optimization tool, in this case a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, to determine optimal pumping strategies that maximize the sustainable yield and at the same time satisfy user-defined drawdown and chloride-concentration constraints. As part of this study, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was developed to quantify the extent and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins and to help define the discretization and hydraulic properties used in the SBFTM. The development of the hydrogeologic framework model required the collection and reconciliation of geologic and geophysical data from existing maps, reports, and databases, along with geologic and hydrologic data from recently drilled wells. These data were integrated into a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model that defines the stratigraphy and geometry of the aquifer zones and the major geologic structures in the basin. The hydrogeologic framework model also quantifies the variation in sediment grain size within each aquifer zone as the percentage of coarse-grained sediment. Previous studies indicated that there are two principal water-producing zones in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, the upper and lower producing zones; an additional thin, productive zone was identified as part of this study. This “middle producing zone” is not as areally extensive as the upper and lower producing zones and only exists in the coastal part of Storage Unit I. These producing zones are bounded at depth by less productive shallow, middle, and deep zones. Two versions of the SBFTM were constructed: an initial-condition model and a modern transient model. The initial-condition model is a long-term transient model that simulates flow and solute-transport conditions during a period with limited anthropogenic influences preceeding the modern transient model. The simulation-transient model simulates flow and transport conditions from 1929 through 2013; however, because of data availability, the focus of the model calibration was 1972–2013. The SBFTM was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and drawdown, as well as measured chloride concentrations and change in concentrations, using a combination of automated and trial-and-error parameter-estimation techniques. A sensitivity analysis indicated that, in general, the SBFTM was most sensitive to recharge- and pumping-distribution parameters, specifically those controlling the amount of small-catchment recharge and the distribution of water extraction by hydrogeologic layer for production wells. The model was also sensitive to parameters controlling stream-recharge rates, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, and porosity. From 1929 to 1971, most of the water entering the area represented by the SBFTM was from creek and small-catchment recharge, and the majority of water leaving the SBFTM area was from pumping, discharge to creeks, and drains. In addition, about 37 percent of the total pumpage came from a net reduction in groundwater storage. From 1972 to 2013, the amount of water entering and leaving the SBFTM was fairly similar as that from 1929 to 1971, except the reduction in pumpage added about 17,000 acre-ft of water to storage. During this later period, there were also times of storage loss. For example, during July 1990, a month when approximately 705 acre-ft of groundwater was pumped in the study area, the pumpage was much greater than all sources of recharge combined, and about 382 acre-ft of water was removed from groundwater storage. Simulated hydraulic heads replicated the observed data to an acceptable matching of the measured water-level, flow direction, and vertical gradients. Simulated hydrographs for selected wells were in good agreement with the measured data, with an average residual of -2.7 ft and a standard deviation of 14.5 ft, indicating that the simulated heads, on average, underestimated the observed water levels. An examination of the model fit indicated that most of the discrepancies were lower simulated heads at wells proximal to production well sites. The simulated chloride concentrations reasonably matched the rising limbs of the measured breakthrough curves in terms of timing and magnitude; however, the simulation overestimated the chloride concentrations on the falling limbs. The overestimation of low chloride concentrations was attributed to the model overestimating the advance of the chloride front during periods of heavy pumping and underestimating the retreat of the chloride front during periods of low pumping. These simulation errors would result in a conservative response by local water managers to seawater intrusion. The SBFTM was used to develop a collection of predictive simulations optimized to produce pumping schedules that maximize yield, subject to a set of constraints and competing objectives. The simulations were grouped as scenarios that differed in their time horizon, initial conditions for groundwater levels and chloride concentrations, as well as precipitation, which was incorporated into the model through simulated recharge. Overall, five scenarios were developed in a multi-objective framework to obtain optimal pumping rates for all of the wells managed by the city, while minimizing excessive drawdown and seawater intrusion. For the current study, complexities in the simulation model and the optimization formulation required additional considerations. Incorporating the solute-transport equations to simulate chloride transport added a highly nonlinear process that is solved iteratively in each time step of the groundwater-flow model. These nonlinearities, coupled with the highly refined grid in the current model, creates challenges for many traditional optimization methods. Therefore, an optimization method was needed that could address nonlinear relationships as well as a very large problem size. Lastly, the optimization problem was reformulated to include multiple objectives without requiring convergence to a single solution. This approach, guided by the city’s objectives, allowed the maximum extraction of information from the complex simulation. Borg, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, was chosen as the optimization algorithm for this study for several reasons: (1) it is very computationally efficient; (2) it can run in parallel; (3) it requires little user input; and (4) it can solve for multiple competing objectives. The first three points allow the algorithm to proceed toward the optimal solutions at the fastest possible rate. The fourth point is advantageous for large, complex optimization problems because it is difficult to formulate the optimization problem in a way that produces only one optimal solution. The problem formulation consisted of four competing objectives and a constraint set in accordance with the main concerns of the city. The objectives were maximizing total pumpage, minimizing seawater intrusion, minimizing total drawdown in production wells, and minimizing the maximum drawdown. The constraints were pump capacity, meeting drinking-water standards for chloride, maintaining a specified minimum flowrate to a groundwater treatment plant, and maintaining minimum water levels in pumping wells. The decision variables either were quarterly pumpage by well or total pumpage by basin. Five optimization scenarios were developed that allow the decision makers to evaluate a range of optimal solutions for a variety of water levels and chloride concentrations as well as potential future climatic conditions. Three scenarios (1, 2, and 5) were multi-objective optimization formulations that allowed for variations in management preferences and climatic conditions. The other two scenarios (3 and 4) were designed to examine the optimization results to answer specific questions. Scenario 1 described the best-case sustainable yield assuming a “full” basin (that is, high initial water levels) and typical climate conditions for 10 years. Scenario 2 also started with a “full” basin; however, this was followed by a 10-year drought. Scenario 3 determined if an “empty” basin (that is, low initial water levels) would recover to full conditions (1998 conditions) given climate assumptions and optimal pumping schedules from scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 4 was designed to produce decision rules that can be used by water managers to help choose an optimal pumping schedule based on measured water-level or chloride data. Scenario 5 identified future pumping schedules based on short-term climate variations during a 2-year management horizon. The results from scenarios 1 and 2 described the differences in maximum pumpage in the basin under typical and dry long-term climate projections, respectively. The scenario 1 results indicated the maximum 10-year pumpage of the basin was about 31,300 acre-ft under typical conditions and controlling simulated seawater intrusion and drawdowns. For scenario 2, less recharge over the 10-year dry climate produced a maximum pumpage estimate of 30,000 acre-ft to control seawater intrusion and drawdowns. The larger pumpage for scenario 1 resulted in more seawater intrusion, but less total drawdown, compared to that of scenario 2. Results for scenarios 3 and 4 showed the basin’s response to management actions combined with climate projections. Both scenarios used the optimal pumping schedules and the 10-year climates from scenarios 1 and 2. The scenario 3 results showed that under minimal pumping, the basin did not fully recover to 1998 water levels within 10 years under either climate scenario. The relatively larger recharge from the typical climate resulted in less drawdown at coastal monitoring wells after the 10-year recovery period than that from the dry climate. The location of the seawater intrusion front was not appreciably different between the scenarios, however. Scenario 4 used the optimal results from scenarios 1 and 2 to produce decision-rule curves that illustrated the pumpage for each basin, given measured levels of chloride concentration or drawdown. This allowed the use of additional measurements at monitoring wells to assess future management decisions on the basis of the sensitivity of observations of drawdown and seawater intrusion to various pumping rates. Scenario 5 allowed managers to investigate the effects of short-term climate variations on optimal pumping schedules. Three specific 2-year simulations were optimized: typical-to-dry (scenario 5A), dry-to-typical (scenario 5B), and dry-to-dry (scenario 5C). The most noteable result from scenario 5 was the overall reduction in optimal pumpage for most schedules in scenario 5C, when the climate is simulated as dry-to-dry. There are also many optimal pumping schedules that produced an overall increase in waterlevels over the two-year simulation period, regardless of climatic condition. Similar to scenario 2, the scenario 5C results represents conservative yield estimates under a minimal-precipitation climatic condition.

California↗

Methodology for estimating times of remediation associated with monitored natural attenuation

Natural attenuation processes combine to disperse, immobilize, and biologically transform anthropogenic contaminants, such as petroleum hydrocarbons and chlorinated ethenes, in ground-water systems. The time required for these processes to lower contaminant concentrations to levels protective of human health and the environment, however, varies widely between different hydrologic systems, different chemical contaminants, and varying amounts of contaminants. This report outlines a method for estimating timeframes required for natural attenuation processes, such as dispersion, sorption, and biodegradation, to lower contaminant concentrations and mass to predetermined regulatory goals in groundwater systems. The time-of-remediation (TOR) problem described in this report is formulated as three interactive components: (1) estimating the length of a contaminant plume once it has achieved a steady-state configuration from a source area of constant contaminant concentration, (2) estimating the time required for a plume to shrink to a smaller, regulatoryacceptable configuration when source-area contaminant concentrations are lowered by engineered methods, and (3) estimating the time needed for nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) contaminants to dissolve, disperse, and biodegrade below predetermined levels in contaminant source areas. This conceptualization was used to develop Natural Attenuation Software (NAS), an interactive computer aquifers. NAS was designed as a screening tool and requires the input of detailed site information about hydrogeology, redox conditions, and the distribution of contaminants. Because NAS is based on numerous simplifications of hydrologic, microbial, and geochemical processes, the program may introduce unacceptable errors for highly heterogeneous hydrologic systems. In such cases, application of the TOR framework outlined in this report may require more detailed, site-specific digital modeling. The NAS software may be downloaded from the Web site http://www.cee.vt.edu/NAS/ Application of NAS illustrates several general characteristics shared by all TOR problems. First, the distance of stabilization of a contaminant plume is strongly dependent on the natural attenuation capacity of particular ground-water systems. The time that it takes a plume to reach a steady-state configuration, however, is independent of natural attenuation capacity. Rather, the time of stabilization is most strongly affected by the sorptive capacity of the aquifer, which is dependent on the organic matter content of the aquifer sediments, as well as the sorptive properties of individual contaminants. As a general rule, a high sorptive capacity retards a plume.s growth or shrinkage, and increases the time of stabilization. Finally, the time of NAPL dissolution depends largely on NAPL mass, composition, geometry, and hydrologic factors, such as ground-water flow rates. An example TOR analysis for petroleum hydrocarbon NAPL was performed for the Laurel Bay site in South Carolina. About 500 to 1,000 pounds of gasoline leaked into the aquifer at this site in 1991, and the NAS simulations suggested that TOR would be on the order of 10 years for soluble and poorly sorbed compounds, such as benzene and methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE). Conversely, TOR would be on the order of 40 years for less soluble, more strongly sorbed compounds, such as toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (TEX). These TOR estimates are roughly consistent with contaminant concentrations observed over 10 years of monitoring at this site where benzene and MTBE concentrations were observed to decrease rapidly and are approaching regulatory maximum concentration limits, whereas toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene concentrations decreased at a slower rate and have remained relatively high. An example TOR analysis for petroleum hydrocarbon NAPL was performed for the Laurel Bay site in South Carolina.

South Carolina↗

Monitoring gray wolf populations using multiple survey methods

The behavioral patterns and large territories of large carnivores make them challenging to monitor. Occupancy modeling provides a framework for monitoring population dynamics and distribution of territorial carnivores. We combined data from hunter surveys, howling and sign surveys conducted at predicted wolf rendezvous sites, and locations of radiocollared wolves to model occupancy and estimate the number of gray wolf (Canis lupus) packs and individuals in Idaho during 2009 and 2010. We explicitly accounted for potential misidentification of occupied cells (i.e., false positives) using an extension of the multi-state occupancy framework. We found agreement between model predictions and distribution and estimates of number of wolf packs and individual wolves reported by Idaho Department of Fish and Game and Nez Perce Tribe from intensive radiotelemetry-based monitoring. Estimates of individual wolves from occupancy models that excluded data from radiocollared wolves were within an average of 12.0% (SD = 6.0) of existing statewide minimum counts. Models using only hunter survey data generally estimated the lowest abundance, whereas models using all data generally provided the highest estimates of abundance, although only marginally higher. Precision across approaches ranged from 14% to 28% of mean estimates and models that used all data streams generally provided the most precise estimates. We demonstrated that an occupancy model based on different survey methods can yield estimates of the number and distribution of wolf packs and individual wolf abundance with reasonable measures of precision. Assumptions of the approach including that average territory size is known, average pack size is known, and territories do not overlap, must be evaluated periodically using independent field data to ensure occupancy estimates remain reliable. Use of multiple survey methods helps to ensure that occupancy estimates are robust to weaknesses or changes in any 1 survey method. Occupancy modeling may be useful for standardizing estimates across large landscapes, even if survey methods differ across regions, allowing for inferences about broad-scale population dynamics of wolves.

Idaho↗

Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon

Hydrodynamic (CE-QUAL-W2) models of Hills Creek Lake (HCL), Lookout Point Lake (LOP), and Dexter Lake (DEX) on the Middle Fork Willamette River (MFWR), and models of Green Peter Lake and Foster Lake on the South Santiam River systems in western Oregon were updated and recalibrated for a wide range of flow and meteorological conditions. These CE-QUAL-W2 models originally were developed by West Consultants, Inc., for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This study by the U.S. Geological Survey included a reassessment of the models’ calibration in more recent years—2002, 2006, 2008, and 2011—categorized respectively as low, normal, high, and extremely high flow calendar years. These years incorporated current dam-operation practices and more available data than the time period used in the original calibration. Modeled water temperatures downstream of both HCL and LOP-DEX on the MFWR were within an average of 0.68 degree Celsius (°C) of measured values; modeled temperatures downstream of Foster Dam on the South Santiam River were within an average of 0.65°C of measured values. A new CE-QUAL-W2 model was developed and calibrated for the riverine MFWR reach between Hills Creek Dam and the head of LOP, allowing an evaluation of the flow and temperature conditions in the entire MFWR system from HCL to Dexter Dam. The complex bathymetry and long residence time of HCL, combined with the relatively deep location of the power and regulating outlet structures at Hills Creek Dam, led to a HCL model that was highly sensitive to several outlet and geometric parameters related to dam structures (STR TOP, STR BOT, STR WIDTH). Release temperatures from HCL were important and often persisted downstream as they were incorporated in the MFWR model and the LOP-DEX model (downstream of MFWR). The models tended to underpredict the measured temperature of water releases from Dexter Dam during the late-September-through-December drawdown period in 2002, and again (to a lesser extent) in 2011, but simulations were much more accurate in 2006 and 2008. This episodic model bias may have been a result of hot, dry conditions; lower lake elevations; and earlier drawdown at both HCL and LOP in 2002. These dry conditions in 2002 may have contradicted assumptions inherent in the estimation of certain model inputs, such as unmeasured inflows and water temperatures, which may respond differently during dry years than during normal and wet years. This report documents the development and calibration of new and revised flow and water-temperature models for riverine and reservoir reaches in the Middle Fork Willamette River and South Santiam River systems. Methods and model parameter values were established for the accurate simulation of flows and temperatures in these systems under current conditions. By extension, these models should be able to accurately simulate flows and temperatures under potential future conditions in which dam operations and dam outlet structures may be changed as part of a strategy to improve habitat, fish passage, and temperature conditions for endangered fish.

Oregon↗

Water-resources-related information for the Oneida Reservation and vicinity, Wisconsin

Water-resources information has been compiled from 82 studies in which data were collected from the Oneida Reservation and vicinity. Forty-seven studies addressed surface-water issues, 33 studies addressed ground-water issues, and 23 studies addressed aquatic-biology issues. Some multidisciplinary studies are included in more than one category. Most of the surface-water studies summarized in this report included both water-quality and flow information. Several surface-water studies provided detailed short-term descriptions of surface- water quality and flow for parts of the Reservation and vicinity. Surface-water and stream-sediment quality data from several data bases have been compiled for this report. Most of the compiled data come from two sites on Duck Creek. Data from Duck Creek were analyzed for trends in concentrations of suspended sediment, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, and dissolved atrazine. No trends were detected for any of these constituents. Trends in concentration of most constituents in surface-water samples were not calculated because of the short period of data collection at nearly all of the sites. Most of the ground-water reports that were identified included both quality and quantity and flow information. None of the ground-water studies provided a detailed description of ground-water quality for the Reservation as a whole. Several reports provide varied and detailed information for ground-water models that are useful for understanding hydrogeology and ground-water flow for the Reservation and vicinity. Ground-water quality data from 180 wells, compiled from several data bases, provided an incomplete summary of the condition of the drinking- water resources of the Reservation. Only 12 constituents, from a small number of wells, exceeded a USEPA drinking-water limit. Most of the exceedences were for trace metals and organics. No exceedences for pesticides or nitrate were reported; however, pesticide data were collected from only a small number of wells. Most of the aquatic biology studies described in this report include fish data, habitat data, or calculations of biotic index values, most of which comes from Duck Creek. Historical aquatic biology data for the Reservation and vicinity are limited. Most of the 23 studies described here were done since 1992. Most of the biota-quality data compiled for this report come from several sites on Duck Creek and represent a small number of samples. Results of the community survey regarding the water resources of the Oneida Reservation indicate that water usage by Tribal members today has declined when compared to the past. The most common reason given for the decline in usage was pollution. Most of those surveyed perceived Duck Creek as being "polluted," but about 50 percent thought that water quality in the Reservation was improving.

Wisconsin↗

Simulation of Surface-Water Conditions in the Nontidal Passaic River Basin, New Jersey

The Passaic River Basin, the third largest drainage basin in New Jersey, encompasses 950 mi2 (square miles) in the highly urbanized area outside New York City, with a population of 2 million. Water quality in the basin is affected by many natural and anthropogenic factors. Nutrient loading to the Wanaque Reservoir in the northern part of the basin is of particular concern and is caused partly by the diversion of water at two downstream intakes that is transferred back upstream to refill the reservoir. The larger of these diversions, Wanaque South intake, is on the lower Pompton River near Two Bridges, New Jersey. To support the development of a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for nutrients in the nontidal part of the basin (805 mi2), a water-quality transport model was needed. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and New Jersey EcoComplex, developed a flow-routing model to provide the hydraulic inputs to the water-quality model. The Diffusion Analogy Flow model (DAFLOW) described herein was designed for integration with the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) watershed water-quality model. The flow routing model was used to simulate flow in 108 miles of the Passaic River and major tributaries. Flow data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations represent most of the model's upstream boundaries. Other model inputs include estimated flows for ungaged tributaries and unchanneled drainage along the mainstem, and reported flows for major point-source discharges and diversions. The former flows were calibrated using the drainage-area ratio method. The simulation extended over a 4+ year period representing a range in flow conditions. Simulated channel cross-sectional geometry in the DAFLOW model was calibrated using several different approaches by adjusting area and top width parameters. The model also was calibrated to observed flows for water year 2001 (low flow) at five mainstem gaging stations and one station at which flow was estimated. The model's target range was medium to low flows--the range of typical intake operations. Simulated flow mass balance, hydrographs (flood-wave speed, attenuation, and spread), flow-duration curves, and velocity and depth values were compared to observed counterparts. Mass balance and hydrograph fit were evaluated quantitatively. Simulation results generally were within the accuracy of the flow data at the measurement stations. The model was validated to observed flows for water years 2000 (average flow), 2002 (extreme low flow), and 2003 (high flow). Results for 19 of 20 comparisons indicate average mass-balance and model-fit errors of 6.6 and 15.7 percent, respectively, indicating that the model reasonably represents the time variation of streamflow in the nontidal Passaic River Basin. An algorithm (subroutine) also was developed for DAFLOW to simulate the hydraulic mixing that occurs near the Wanaque South intake upstream from the confluence of the Pompton and Passaic Rivers. The intake draws water from multiple sources, including effluent from a nearby wastewater-treatment plant, all of which have different phosphorus loads. The algorithm determines the proportion of flow from each source and operates within a narrow flow range. The equations used in the algorithm are based on the theory of diffusion and lateral mixing in rivers. Parameters used in the equations were estimated from limited available local flow and water-quality data. As expected, simulation results for water years 2000, 2001, and 2003 indicate that most of the water drawn to the intake comes from the Pompton River; however, during many short periods of low flow and high diversion, particularly in water year 2002, entrainment of the other flow sources compensated for the insufficient flow in the Pompton River. As additional verification of the flow model used in the water-quality model, a Branched Lagrangian Transport Model (B

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Conference Paper↗

Simulation of wastewater effects on dissolved oxygen during low streamflow in the Red River of the North at Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota

Pursuant to Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act, both North Dakota and Minnesota identified part of the Red River of the North (Red River) as water-quality limited. The states are required to determine the total maximum daily load (TMDL) that can be discharged to a water-quality limited reach from various pollution sources without contravening water-quality standards (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1991). A work group consisting of local, State, and Federal agency representatives that was organized in June 1994 decided that a TMDL should be developed in phases for a subreach of the Red River at Fargo, N. Dak., and Moorhead, Minn. (fig. 1). In the first phase, which is the basis for this report, the focus is on attainment of the instream dissolved-oxygen (DO) standard during low streamflows, and only Fargo and Moorhead wastewater-treatment-plant discharges and Sheyenne River inflow are considered. The study reach begins about 0.1 mile (mi) downstream (north) of the 12th Avenue North bridge in Fargo and extends 30.8 mi downstream to a site 0.8 mi upstream of the confluence of the Buffalo and Red Rivers (fig. 1). Nitrification of total ammonia (ammonia) from Fargo and Moorhead wastewater consumes most of the DO in the study reach (Wesolowski, 1994). Because the new (1995) Fargo plant already is nitrifying its wastewater, the work group needed to determine the maximum ammonia concentration for wastewater from the nonnitrifying Moorhead plant. To accomplish this task, the Red River at Fargo Water-Quality (RRatFGO QW) model (Wesolowski, 1994, 1996b) was used to simulate the effects of various wastewater-management alternatives during low streamflow. This report presents the results of those simulations to determine the usefulness of the model for management decisions. The simulations and report were completed in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health.

Minnesota↗

Channel mapping river miles 29–62 of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, May 2009

Bathymetric, topographic, and grain-size data were collected in May 2009 along a 33-mi reach of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. The study reach is located from river miles 29 to 62 at the confluence of the Colorado and Little Colorado Rivers. Channel bathymetry was mapped using multibeam and singlebeam echosounders, subaerial topography was mapped using ground-based total-stations, and bed-sediment grain-size data were collected using an underwater digital microscope system. These data were combined to produce digital elevation models, spatially variable estimates of digital elevation model uncertainty, georeferenced grain-size data, and bed-sediment distribution maps. This project is a component of a larger effort to monitor the status and trends of sand storage along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. This report documents the survey methods and post-processing procedures, digital elevation model production and uncertainty assessment, and procedures for bed-sediment classification, and presents the datasets resulting from this study.

Arizona↗

Digital data sets that describe aquifer characteristics of the High Plains aquifer in western Oklahoma

ARC/INFO export files This diskette contains digitized aquifer boundaries and maps of hydraulic conductivity, recharge, and ground-water level elevation contours for the High Plains aquifer in western Oklahoma. This area encompasses the panhandle counties of Cimarron, Texas, and Beaver, and the western counties of Harper, Ellis, Woodward, Dewey, and Roger Mills. The High Plains aquifer underlies approximately 7,000 square miles of Oklahoma and is used extensively for irrigation. The High Plains aquifer is a water-table aquifer and consists predominately of the Tertiary-age Ogallala Formation and overlying Quaternary-age alluvial and terrace deposits. In some areas the aquifer is absent and the underlying Triassic, Jurassic, or Cretaceous-age rocks are exposed at the surface. These rocks are hydraulically connected with the aquifer in some areas. The High Plains aquifer is composed of interbedded sand, siltstone, clay, gravel, thin limestones, and caliche. The proportion of various lithological materials changes rapidly from place to place, but poorly sorted sand and gravel predominate. The rocks are poorly to moderately well cemented by calcium carbonate. The aquifer boundaries, hydraulic conductivity, and recharge data sets were created by extracting geologic contact lines from published digital surficial geology maps based on a scale of 1:125,000 for the panhandle counties and 1:250,000 for the western counties. The water-level elevation contours and some boundary lines were digitized from maps in a published water-level elevation map for 1980 based on a scale of 1:250,000. The hydraulic conductivity and recharge values in this report were used as input to the ground-water flow model on the High Plains aquifer. Ground-water flow models are numerical representations that simplify and aggregate natural systems. Models are not unique; different combinations of aquifer characteristics may produce similar results. Therefore, values of hydraulic conductivity and recharge used in the model and presented in this data set are not precise, but are within a reasonable range when compared to independently collected data.

Oklahoma↗

Improving groundwater predictions utilizing seasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models forced with sea surface temperature forecasts

Recent studies have found a significant association between climatic variability and basin hydroclimatology, particularly groundwater levels, over the southeast United States. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater-level forecasts based on the precipitation forecasts from ECHAM 4.5 General Circulation Model Forced with Sea Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network and Hydro-Climatic Data Network were selected to represent groundwater and surface water flows, respectively, having minimal anthropogenic influences within the Flint River Basin in Georgia, United States. The writers employ two low-dimensional models [principle component regression (PCR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] for predicting groundwater and streamflow at both seasonal and monthly timescales. Three modeling schemes are considered at the beginning of January to predict winter (January, February, and March) and spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and groundwater for the selected sites within the Flint River Basin. The first scheme (model 1) is a null model and is developed using PCR for every streamflow and groundwater site using previous 3-month observations (October, November, and December) available at that particular site as predictors. Modeling schemes 2 and 3 are developed using PCR and CCA, respectively, to evaluate the role of precipitation forecasts in improving monthly and seasonal groundwater predictions. Modeling scheme 3, which employs a CCA approach, is developed for each site by considering observed groundwater levels from nearby sites as predictands. The performance of these three schemes is evaluated using two metrics (correlation coefficient and relative RMS error) by developing groundwater-level forecasts based on leave-five-out cross-validation. Results from the research reported in this paper show that using precipitation forecasts in climate models improves the ability to predict the interannual variability of winter and spring streamflow and groundwater levels over the basin. However, significant conditional bias exists in all the three modeling schemes, which indicates the need to consider improved modeling schemes as well as the availability of longer time-series of observed hydroclimatic information over the basin.

Georgia↗