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At least 955 records · Page 53Linked to original sources
USGS2002

United States streamflow probabilities and uncertainties based on anticipated El Niño, water year 2003

During the course of spring and summer 2002, tropical sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean have warmed and the wind and pressure fields have shifted, so that by August, there was considerable confidence that water year (October–September) 2003 will be characterized by a weak to mild El Niño climate (http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/200208/QuickLook.html). At the same time, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern of sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific (Mantua et al., 1997) has shifted towards a more neutral state than in the past several years and will not be considered in detail here. Previous studies of the connections between El Niños and streamflow in the United States by the authors (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., 2001) indicate that El Niño conditions influence historical streamflow distributions to varying extents. These conclusions, along with those of other researchers, suggest that foreknowledge of El Niño conditions can inform seasonal outlooks for streamflows throughout the Americas and elsewhere. For example, Dettinger et al. (2001), as distilled here into Fig. 1, showed that historical annual streamflow totals have correlated negatively with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, which is negatively associated with El Niños) in the U.S. Southwest as well as in the subtropics of South America, and correlate positively in the U.S. Northwest, in much of tropical South America, and, perhaps, in southernmost South America. These interhemispheric bands of El Niño influence are a matter of considerable concern for water- and land-managers throughout the Americas, and expand upon results from previous studies in the western United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992), including a recent analysis by Pizarro and Lall (2002), where water availability and hydrologic extremes are particularly pressing issues.

Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin↗
USGS1999

Public acceptance of wildlife trapping in Colorado

In November 1994, the Colorado Division of Wildlife (CDOW) initiated a stakeholder process to develop trapping regulations that would seek to achieve compromise among divergent interests. A telephone survey was conducted to provide stakeholders with information about the Colorado public's acceptance of trapping. A random sample of 900 residents, stratified by geographic region, indicated that the public would vote to ban trapping and that they believed the ban would eliminate a cruel activity and help to preserve endangered wildlife. Most, however, agreed that trapping was acceptable to prevent spread of disease and to protect livestock, but unacceptable on the basis of providing recreation or making money. Beliefs about trapping were found to be rooted in a protection versus use value orientation about wildlife. The regulations subsequently adopted by the CDOW were consistent with survey findings; however, the regulatory process was bypassed by legislative action, giving trapping authority to the Colorado Department of Agriculture. In response, citizen activists succeeded in placing a ballot initiative before voters. In 1996, the ballot initiative passed, banning trapping in Colorado.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2002

True metabolizable energy of moist-soil seeds

Habitat objectives for migrating and wintering waterfowl are often established by converting population energy demands into an equivalent measure of foraging habitat. In some areas, seeds produced from moist-soil plants provide a significant proportion of the energy available to waterfowl. To accurately establish habitat objectives for migrating and wintering waterfowl, managers must estimate seed production from moist-soil plants and have information on metabolizable energy (ME) of moist-soil seeds. Although methods for estimating seed production have been developed, ME has been determined for few natural seeds. We determined true metabolizable energy (TME) of 10 moist-soil seeds commonly consumed by wintering and migrating ducks. TME estimates were similar (P>0.05) for hairy crabgrass (Digitaria sanguinalis; 3.09 kcal/g), little hairy crabgrass (D. ischaemum; 3.10 kcal/g), pigweed (Amaranthus spp.; 2.97 kcal/g), yellow foxtail (Setaria lutescens; 2.88 kcal/g), fall panicum (Panicum dichotomiflorum; 2.75 kcal/g), curly dock (Rumex crispus; 2.68 kcal/g), and wild millet (Echinochloa crusgalli; 2.61 kcal/g), but less (P<0.05) for beakrush (Rynchospora corniculata; 1.86 kcal/g), paspalum (Paspalum laeve; 1.57 kcal/g), and nodding or curltop ladysthumb smartweed (Polygonum lapathifolium; 1.52 kcal/g). TME values determined for moist-soil seeds in this study will allow managers to accurately estimate carrying capacity of waterfowl habitats.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2011

Evaluating cost-efficiency and accuracy of hunter harvest survey designs

Effective management of harvested wildlife often requires accurate estimates of the number of animals harvested annually by hunters. A variety of techniques exist to obtain harvest data, such as hunter surveys, check stations, mandatory reporting requirements, and voluntary reporting of harvest. Agencies responsible for managing harvested wildlife such as deer (Odocoileus spp.), elk (Cervus elaphus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) are challenged with balancing the cost of data collection versus the value of the information obtained. We compared precision, bias, and relative cost of several common strategies, including hunter self-reporting and random sampling, for estimating hunter harvest using a realistic set of simulations. Self-reporting with a follow-up survey of hunters who did not report produces the best estimate of harvest in terms of precision and bias, but it is also, by far, the most expensive technique. Self-reporting with no followup survey risks very large bias in harvest estimates, and the cost increases with increased response rate. Probability-based sampling provides a substantial cost savings, though accuracy can be affected by nonresponse bias. We recommend stratified random sampling with a calibration estimator used to reweight the sample based on the proportions of hunters responding in each covariate category as the best option for balancing cost and accuracy. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS1969

The Geologic Story of the Uinta Mountains

The opening of the West after the Civil War greatly stimulated early geologic exploration west of the 100th Meridian. One of the areas first studied, the Uinta Mountains region, gained wide attention as a result of the explorations of three Territorial Surveys, one headed by John Wesley Powell, one by Clarence King, and one by Ferdinand V. Hayden. Completion of the Union Pacific Railroad across southern Wyoming 100 years ago, in 1869, materially assisted geologic exploration, and the railheads at Green River and Rock Springs greatly simplified the outfitting of expeditions into the mountains. The overlap of the Powell, King, and Hayden surveys in the Uinta Mountains led to efforts that were less concerted than competitive and not without acrimony. Many parts of the area were seen by all three parties at almost the same time. Duplication was inevitable, of course, but all three surveys contributed vast quantities of new knowledge to the storehouse of geology, and many now-basic concepts arose from their observations. Powell's area of interest extended mainly southward from the Uinta Mountains to the Grand Canyon, including the boundless plateaus and canyons of southern Utah and northern Arizona. King's survey extended eastward from the High Sierra in California to Cheyenne, Wyoming, and encompassed a swath of country more than 100 miles wide. Hayden's explorations covered an immense region of mountains and basins from Yellowstone Park in Wyoming southeast throughout most of Colorado. Powell first entered the Uinta Mountains in the fall of 1868, having traveled north around the east end of the range from the White River country to Green River, Wyoming, then south over a circuitous route to Flaming Gorge and Browns Park, and finally back to the White River, where he spent the winter. In 1869, after reexamining much of the area visited the previous season, Powell embarked on his famous 'first boat trip' down the Green and Colorado Rivers. This trip was more exploratory than scientific; his second, more scientific trip was made 2 years later. Powell revisited the Uinta Mountains in 1874 and 1875 to complete the studies begun 6 years earlier. His classic 'Report on the Geology of the Eastern Portion of the Uinta Mountains and a Region of Country Adjacent Thereto' was published in 1876. King's survey?officially 'The United States Geological Exploration of the Fortieth Parallel'?is better known simply as the '40th Parallel Survey.' King began working eastward from California in 1867. The Uinta Mountains region, however, was mapped by S. F. Emmons, under the supervision of King, in the summers of 1869 and 1871. Emmons' work was monumental, and although he emphasized in his letter of transmittal to King the exploratory nature of the work?as the formal title of the report indicates?his maps, descriptions, and conclusions reflect a comprehensive understanding of the country and its rocks. The 40th Parallel report contains the best, most complete early descriptions of the Uinta Mountains. It, indeed, is a treasurechest of information and a landmark contribution to the emerging science of geology. Hayden visited the Uinta Mountains in 1870, descending the valley of Henrys Fork to Flaming Gorge in the fall after having earlier examined the higher part of the range to the west. Most of Hayden's observations were cursory, and he repeatedly expressed regret at having insufficient time for more detailed studies. In reference to the area between Clay Basin and Browns Park, he remarked (Hayden, 1871, p. 67) somewhat dryly that 'the geology of this portion of the Uinta range is very complicated and interesting. To have solved the problem to my entire satisfaction would have required a week or two.' Eighty-odd years later I spent several months there?looking at the same rocks. Powell was perhaps more creative?more intuitive?than either King or Hayden, and his breadth of interest in the fields of geology, physiography, ethnology, an

Bulletin↗
USGS2016

Uncertainty in V s30 -based site response

Methods that account for site response range in complexity from simple linear categorical adjustment factors to sophisticated nonlinear constitutive models. Seismic‐hazard analysis usually relies on ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs); within this framework site response is modeled statistically with simplified site parameters that include the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity to 30 m ( V S 30 ) and basin depth parameters. Because V S 30 is not known in most locations, it must be interpolated or inferred through secondary information such as geology or topography. In this article, we analyze a subset of stations for which V S 30 has been measured to address effects of V S 30 proxies on the uncertainty in the ground motions as modeled by GMPEs. The stations we analyze also include multiple recordings, which allow us to compute the repeatable site effects (or empirical amplification factors [EAFs]) from the ground motions. Although all methods exhibit similar bias, the proxy methods only reduce the ground‐motion standard deviations at long periods when compared to GMPEs without a site term, whereas measured V S 30 values reduce the standard deviations at all periods. The standard deviation of the ground motions are much lower when the EAFs are used, indicating that future refinements of the site term in GMPEs have the potential to substantially reduce the overall uncertainty in the prediction of ground motions by GMPEs.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2011

Homogenization of large-scale movement models in ecology

A difficulty in using diffusion models to predict large scale animal population dispersal is that individuals move differently based on local information (as opposed to gradients) in differing habitat types. This can be accommodated by using ecological diffusion. However, real environments are often spatially complex, limiting application of a direct approach. Homogenization for partial differential equations has long been applied to Fickian diffusion (in which average individual movement is organized along gradients of habitat and population density). We derive a homogenization procedure for ecological diffusion and apply it to a simple model for chronic wasting disease in mule deer. Homogenization allows us to determine the impact of small scale (10–100 m) habitat variability on large scale (10–100 km) movement. The procedure generates asymptotic equations for solutions on the large scale with parameters defined by small-scale variation. The simplicity of this homogenization procedure is striking when compared to the multi-dimensional homogenization procedure for Fickian diffusion,and the method will be equally straightforward for more complex models.

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology↗
USGS2015

Using occupancy models to accommodate uncertainty in the interpretation of aerial photograph data: status of beaver in Central Oregon, USA

Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) influence habitat for many species and pose challenges in developed landscapes. They are increasingly viewed as a cost-efficient means of riparian habitat restoration and water storage. Still, information on their status is rare, particularly in western North America. We used aerial photography to evaluate changes in beaver occupancy between 1942&ndash;1968 and 2009 in upper portions of 2 large watersheds in Oregon, USA. We used multiple observers and occupancy modeling to account for bias related to photo quality, observers, and imperfect detection of beaver impoundments. Our analysis suggested a slightly higher rate of beaver occupancy in the upper Deschutes than the upper Klamath basin. We found weak evidence for beaver increases in the west and declines in eastern parts of the study area. Our study presents a method for dealing with observer variation in photo interpretation and provides the first assessment of the extent of beaver influence in 2 basins with major water-use challenges. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Oregon↗
USGS2010

Slow slip phenomena in Cascadia from 2007 and beyond: a review

Recent technological advances combined with more detailed analyses of seismologic and geodetic observations have fundamentally changed our understanding of the ways in which tectonic stresses arising from plate motions are accommodated by slip on faults. The traditional view that relative plate motions are accommodated by a simple cycle of stress accumulation and release on “locked” plate-boundary faults has been revolutionized by the serendipitous discovery and recognition of the significance of slow-slip phenomena, mostly in the deeper reaches of subduction zones. The Cascadia subduction zone, located in the Pacific Northwest of the conterminous United States and adjacent Canada, is an archetype of exploration and learning about slow-slip phenomena. These phenomena are manifest as geodetically observed aseismic transient deformations accompanied by a previously unrecognized class of seismic signals. Although secondary failure processes may be involved in generating the seismic signals, the primary origins of both aseismic and seismic phenomena appear to be episodic fault slip, probably facilitated by fluids, on a plate interface that is critically stressed or weakened. In Cascadia, this transient slip evolves more slowly and over more prolonged durations relative to the slip in earthquakes, and it occurs between the 30- and 40-km-depth contours of the plate interface where information was previously elusive. Although there is some underlying organization that relaxes nearly all the accrued plate-motion stresses along the entirety of Cascadia, we now infer that slow slip evolves in complex patterns indicative of propagating stress fronts. Our new understanding provides key constraints not only on the region where the slow slip originates, but also on the probable characteristics of future megathrust earthquakes in Cascadia. Herein, we review the most significant scientific issues and progress related to understanding slow-slip phenomena in Cascadia and highlight some of their societal implications. We provide a comprehensive review, from the big picture as inferred from studies of regional-scale monitoring data to the details revealed by innovative, focused experiments and new instrumentation. We focus on what has been learned largely since 2007, when several major investments in monitoring and temporary deployments dramatically increased the quality and quantity of available data.

Oregon↗
USGS2019

On the portability of ML-MC as a depth discriminant for small seismic events recorded at local distances

In this paper we show that M L -M C is a viable and regionally portable depth discriminant and therefore may contribute in nuclear test ban treaty verification. A recent study found that the difference between local magnitude (M L ) and coda duration magnitude (M C ) discriminates shallow seismic events (mining blasts, mining-induced earthquakes, and shallow tectonic earthquakes) from deeper tectonic earthquakes in the Utah region. The shallow seismic events had anomalously high M C values, with increasingly negative M L -M C values as depth decreased. Here we evaluate the performance of M L -M C as a depth discriminant in three new regions, finding that M L -M C increases between 0–9 km depth in all cases. Initially, we investigated M L -M C as a function of depth for naturally occurring earthquakes in the region around Yellowstone National Park, as recorded by the University of Utah Seismograph Stations. For 3,358 Yellowstone earthquakes with well-constrained depths, we found M L -M C increased 0.030 ± 0.007 magnitude units (m.u.) for each 1 km increase in depth up to 10 km depth. Next, we examined M L -M C values for anthropogenic seismicity in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, as recorded by the National Earthquake Information Center. For 1,628 events with well-constrained depths, we computed a slope for M L -M C of 0.022 ± 0.010 m.u./km. Finally, we analyzed M L -M C for 28,722 well-located earthquakes in Italy, as recorded by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, and found an M L -M C slope of 0.018 ± 0.001 m.u./km. In each case, the quoted error bounds represent 95% confidence regions which exclude zero, implying that the depth-dependence of M L -M C is statistically significant. We performed several robustness tests in which we varied the criterion used to define a well-constrained depth and the depth range used in the linear fit. In nearly all cases, we found a positive slope for M L -M C vs. depth at a confidence level above 95%.

Utah, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2022

Adult white-tailed deer survival in hunted populations on public and private lands

Estimates of sex- and age-specific survival are important for guiding population management decisions for white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ). However, differences in deer survival between public and private lands can exist and, if unaccounted for, may affect wildlife agencies' ability to effectively manage statewide and local deer populations. From 2014 to 2016, we radiocollared and monitored survival of 79 adult white-tailed deer (141 deer-years; 62 male, 79 female) on 2 public and 2 private properties in Alabama, USA. We assessed the effects of sex, age, and landownership type (i.e., public or private) on adult white-tailed deer harvest and survival patterns using an information-theoretic approach. Hunter harvest accounted for 77% of observed mortalities ( n = 23/30), but harvest and survival rates varied by sex and age. Harvest and survival were similar between public and private property despite more restrictive hunting regulations for antlered deer on public areas. Similar harvest rates were likely due to self-imposed, quality deer management (QDM) harvest strategies on private land that emulated the effects of a state-mandated antler point restriction (APR) on public land. Our findings indicate survival rates of adult white-tailed deer may be applicable across landownership types where state-mandated harvest regulations with respect to males are more restrictive on public than private property, due to the popularity of QDM by private-land deer hunters. However, where regulations are similar across landownership types (e.g., no state-mandated APR), differences in harvest and survival rates may exist.

Alabama↗
USGS2000

The bellerophont controversy revisited

An old controversy reestablished itself in the late 1970s and early 1980s that focused on the systematic placement of the enigmatic Bellerophontoidea (informally, "bellerophonts"), a group of planispirally coiled, wholly fossil molluscs. The controversy embraced three fundamental concepts that are based on different philosophical interpretations of shell form, muscle scar patterns, and other preserved shell features: 1) all bellerophonts were monoplacophorans; 2) all bellerophonts were gastropods; and 3) some bellerophonts were monoplacophorans and some were gastropods. A review of the main issues appearing in the literature since the early 1980s indicates that these three philosophical divisions still exist and, indeed, have become entrenched. An examination of the relevant anatomical and shell features of recent gastropods and monoplacophorans, and comparison with preserved features in enigmatic fossil forms, convinces us that the bellerophontoideans and the coiled and high-domed "monoplacophorans" (Cyclomya) were gastropods. Only the flattened, spoon-and cap-shaped monoplacophorans (Tergomya) were true monoplacophorans. We present a hypothetical scheme for the morphological diversification of gastropods from early monoplacophorans that could account for Cyclomya, Bellerophontoidea, Patellogastropoda, and Prosobranchia.

American Malacological Bulletin↗
USGS2020

The NASA hydrological forecast system for food and water security applications

Many regions in Africa and the Middle East are vulnerable to drought and to water and food insecurity, motivating agency efforts such as the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to provide early warning of drought events in the region. Each year these warnings guide life-saving assistance that reaches millions of people. A new NASA multi-model, remote sensing-based hydrological forecasting and analysis system, NHyFAS, has been developed to support such efforts by improving the FEWS NET’s current early warning capabilities. NHyFAS derives its skill from two sources: (i) accurate initial conditions, as produced by an offline land modeling system through the application and/or assimilation of various satellite data (precipitation, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage); and (ii) meteorological forcing data during the forecast period as produced by a state-of-the-art ocean-land-atmosphere forecast system. The land modeling framework used is the Land Information System (LIS), which employs a suite of land surface models, allowing multi-model ensembles and multiple data assimilation strategies to better estimate land surface conditions. An evaluation of NHyFAS shows that its one-to-five month forecasts successfully capture known historic drought events. The system also benefits from strong collaboration with end-user partners in Africa and the Middle East, who provide insights on strategies to formulate and communicate early warning indicators to water and food security communities. The additional lead time provided by this system will increase the speed, accuracy and efficacy of humanitarian disaster relief, helping to save lives and livelihoods.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2002

Displaced rocks, strong motion, and the mechanics of shallow faulting associated with the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake

The paucity of strong-motion stations near the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake makes it impossible to make instrumental studies of key questions about near-fault strong-motion patterns associated with this event. However, observations of displaced rocks allow a qualitative investigation of these problems. By observing the slope of the desert surface and the frictional coefficient between these rocks and the desert surface, we estimate the minimum horizontal acceleration needed to displace the rocks. Combining this information with observations of how many rocks were displaced in different areas near the fault, we infer the level of shaking. Given current empirical shaking attenuation relationships, the number of rocks that moved is slightly lower than expected; this implies that slightly lower than expected shaking occurred during the Hector Mine earthquake. Perhaps more importantly, stretches of the fault with 4 m of total displacement at the surface displaced few nearby rocks on 15?? slopes, suggesting that the horizontal accelerations were below 0.2g within meters of the fault scarp. This low level of shaking suggests that the shallow parts of this rupture did not produce strong accelerations. Finally, we did not observe an increased incidence of displaced rocks along the fault zone itself. This suggests that, despite observations of fault-zone-trapped waves generated by aftershocks of the Hector Mine earthquake, such waves were not an important factor in controlling peak ground acceleration during the mainshock.

California↗
USGS2002

Timing and magnitude of Broad-winged Hawk migration at Montclair Hawk Lookout, New Jersey, and Hawk Mountain Sanctuary, Pennsylvania

The Broad-winged Hawk ( Buteo platypterus ) breeds in eastern and central Canada and the United States, and winters in Central America and northern and central South America. Birders and ornithologists count migrating Broad-winged Hawks at dozens of traditional watch sites throughout the northeastern United States. We modeled counts of migrating Broad-winged Hawks from two raptor migration watch sites: Montclair Hawk Lookout, New Jersey, and Hawk Mountain Sanctuary, Pennsylvania, to determine whether annual abundance and trend estimates from individual sites within the mid-Atlantic states are representative of the region as a whole. We restricted ourselves to counts made between 10:00 and 16:00 EST during September to standardize count effort between sites. We created one model set for annual counts and another model set for daily counts. When modeling daily counts we incorporated weather and identity of individual observers. Akaike’s Information Criteria were used to select the best model from an initial set of competing models. Annual counts declined at both sites during 1979–1998. Broad-winged Hawk migration began, peaked, and ended later at Montclair than at Hawk Mountain, even though Hawk Mountain is 155 km west-southwest of Montclair. Mean annual counts of hawks at Montclair were more than twice those at Hawk Mountain, but were not correlated. Broad-winged Hawks counted at Montclair may not be the same birds as those counted at Hawk Mountain. Rather, the two sites may be monitoring different regional subpopulations. Broad-winged Hawks counted at the two sites may use different migration tactics, with those counted at Hawk Mountain being more likely to slope soar, and those at Montclair more likely to use thermal soaring. A system of multiple watch sites is needed to monitor various breeding populations of this widely dispersed migrant.

New Jersey, Pennsylvania↗
USGS1998

Winter habitat of Kirtland's warbler: an endangered nearctic/neotropical migrant

Habitats of Kirtland?s Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) on the wintering grounds in the Bahama Archipelago are presented based upon data from 29 specimens, two bandings, and 67 sightings of at least 61 individuals on 13 islands scattered through the region. Major emphasis is placed on a study site in central Eleuthera, with additional information on sites on Grand Turk, North Caicos, and Crooked Island. The warblers used upland habitats that have a low shrub/scrub component with a patchiness of small openings and openings within the vegetation at the ground level. Six broad habitats were identified as being used: Natural Shrub/Scrub, Secondary Shrub/Scrub, Low Coppice, Pineland Understory, Saline/Upland Ecotone, and Suburban; High Coppice is not used. The structure and floristic composition of the habitats are described. Observations (N=451) of a Kirtland?s Warbler male (uniquely color banded) and female over three months indicated the birds generally stayed on or near the ground, generally < 3 m (98% of observations), and used a territory of 8.3 ha. A crude estimate of potential winter habitat suggests that there is more than an adequate amount in the Bahama Archipelago for the currently small warbler population (733 singing males in 1997) and allows for a considerable population increase. No serious future threat to the amount of that habitat is foreseen.

The Wilson Bulletin↗
USGS2002

Test of a habitat suitability index for black bears in the southern Appalachians

We present a habitat suitability index (HSI) model for black bears (Ursus americanus) living in the southern Appalachians that was developed a priori from the literature, then tested using location and home range data collected in the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary, North Carolina, over a 12-year period. The HSI was developed and initially tested using habitat and bear data collected over 2 years in the sanctuary. We increased number of habitat sampling sites, included data collected in areas affected by timber harvest, used more recent Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to create a more accurate depiction of the HSI for the sanctuary, evaluated effects of input variability on HSI values, and duplicated the original tests using more data. We found that the HSI predicted habitat selection by bears on population and individual levels and the distribution of collared bears were positively correlated with HSI values. We found a stronger relationship between habitat selection by bears and a second-generation HSI. We evaluated our model with criteria suggested by Roloff and Kernohan (1999) for evaluating HSI model reliability and concluded that our model was reliable and robust. The model's strength is that it was developed as an a priori hypothesis directly modeling the relationship between critical resources and fitness of bears and tested with independent data. We present the HSI spatially as a continuous fitness surface where potential contribution of habitat to the fitness of a bear is depicted at each point in space.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2026

Growth and erosion of volcanic islands since 1963 analyzed by multi-sensor satellite data and historical records

Most volcanic activity is taking place in the oceans. Depending on water depth, eruption recurrence times and volumes, a new island can form. The power of erosional forces, the type of erupted material and the efficiency of secondary processes determine the island’s lifetime. Since the famous eruption of Surtsey (Iceland) in 1963, at least another 23 volcanic islands have appeared. Some islands remained intact for years or decades, whereas others disappeared within just weeks or months. In this study, we analyzed satellite data to determine growth and erosion rates of the volcanic edifices related to these 24 islands. We combined multi-sensor (optical, thermal, radar) satellite data time series with information from literature and the Global Volcanism Program database. We developed a comprehensive dataset, including 19 parameters, on the islands’ lifetime, shape, area, volume, eruption style and duration, environmental conditions, development of sedimentary deposits, and the geomorphic evolution of the island over time. Our dataset is available in a database format. This database allows us to test eight hypotheses about factors influencing the islands’ lifetime. Our results show that instead of one single critical factor, a combination of different factors influences the life history of volcanic islands. For instance, we show that larger islands do not necessarily live longer. The mechanical properties of the eruption products affect the island’s structural integrity. Irrespective of the material, a minimum initial area of around 50,000 m 2 seems to be a reasonable threshold to give the island a chance to exist longer.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗