USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Human Ecology”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 955 records · Page 53Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Coastal habitat and biological community response to dam removal on the Elwha River

Habitat diversity and heterogeneity play a fundamental role in structuring ecological communities. Dam emplacement and removal can fundamentally alter habitat characteristics, which in turn can affect associated biological communities. Beginning in the early 1900s, the Elwha and Glines Canyon dams in Washington, USA, withheld an estimated 30 million tonnes of sediment from river, coastal, and nearshore habitats. During the staged removal of these dams—the largest dam removal project in history—over 14 million tonnes of sediment were released from the former reservoirs. Our interdisciplinary study in coastal habitats—the first of its kind—shows how the physical changes to the river delta and estuary habitats during dam removal were linked to responses in biological communities. Sediment released during dam removal resulted in over a meter of sedimentation in the estuary and over 400 m of expansion of the river mouth delta landform. These changes increased the amount of supratidal and intertidal habitat, but also reduced the influx of seawater into the pre-removal estuary complex. The effects of these geomorphic and hydrologic changes cascaded to biological systems, reducing the abundance of macroinvertebrates and fish in the estuary and shifting community composition from brackish to freshwater-dominated species. Vegetation did not significantly change on the delta, but pioneer vegetation increased during dam removal, coinciding with the addition of newly available habitat. Understanding how coastal habitats respond to large-scale human stressors—and in some cases the removal of those stressors—is increasingly important as human uses and restoration activities increase in these habitats.

Washington↗
USGS2021

Diffusion modeling reveals effects of multiple release sites and human activity on a recolonizing apex predator

Background Reintroducing predators is a promising conservation tool to help remedy human-caused ecosystem changes. However, the growth and spread of a reintroduced population is a spatiotemporal process that is driven by a suite of factors, such as habitat change, human activity, and prey availability. Sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) are apex predators of nearshore marine ecosystems that had declined nearly to extinction across much of their range by the early 20th century. In Southeast Alaska, which is comprised of a diverse matrix of nearshore habitat and managed areas, reintroduction of 413 individuals in the late 1960s initiated the growth and spread of a population that now exceeds 25,000. Methods Periodic aerial surveys in the region provide a time series of spatially-explicit data to investigate factors influencing this successful and ongoing recovery. We integrated an ecological diffusion model that accounted for spatially-variable motility and density-dependent population growth, as well as multiple population epicenters, into a Bayesian hierarchical framework to help understand the factors influencing the success of this recovery. Results Our results indicated that sea otters exhibited higher residence time as well as greater equilibrium abundance in Glacier Bay, a protected area, and in areas where there is limited or no commercial fishing. Asymptotic spread rates suggested sea otters colonized Southeast Alaska at rates of 1–8 km/yr with lower rates occurring in areas correlated with higher residence time, which primarily included areas near shore and closed to commercial fishing. Further, we found that the intrinsic growth rate of sea otters may be higher than previous estimates suggested. Conclusions This study shows how predator recolonization can occur from multiple population epicenters. Additionally, our results suggest spatial heterogeneity in the physical environment as well as human activity and management can influence recolonization processes, both in terms of movement (or motility) and density dependence.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Human activities and weather drive contact rates of wintering elk

Wildlife aggregation patterns can influence disease transmission. However, limited research evaluates the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on aggregation. Many managers would like to reduce wildlife contact rates, driven by aggregation, to limit disease transmission. We develop a novel analytical framework to quantify how management activities such as supplemental feeding and hunting versus weather drive contact rates while accounting for correlated contacts. We apply the framework to the National Elk Refuge (NER), Wyoming, USA, where the probable arrival of chronic wasting disease (CWD) has magnified concerns. We used a daily proximity index to measure contact rates among 68 global positioning system collared elk from 2016 to 2019. We modelled contact rates as a function of abiotic weather‐related effects, anthropogenic effects and aggregation from the prior day. The winter of 2017–2018 had greater natural forage availability and little snow, which led to a rare non‐feeding year on the NER and provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect of feeding on contact rates relative to other conditions. Supplemental feeding was the strongest predictor of aggregation, and contact rates were 2.6 times larger while feeding occurred compared to the baseline rate (0.34 and 0.13, respectively). Snow‐covered area was the second strongest predictor of contact rates highlighting the importance of abiotic factors to elk aggregation, but this effect had half the strength of feeding. These results are the first to show, even in animals that congregate naturally, how greatly supplemental feeding amplifies aggregation. Contact rates were also 23% lower during times when elk hunting was active (0.10) compared to the baseline. Synthesis and applications . Supplemental feeding increased contacts between elk well above the natural effects of weather, even after accounting for correlated movement expected in wintering ungulates. Similarly, differences in hunting season timing with adjacent areas led to an increase in contacts, suggesting an additional management option for reducing aggregation. The analytical framework presented supports the evaluation of temporally varying management actions that influence aggregation broadly and can be easily implemented whether the interest in changing aggregation is related to reduction of disease transmission, human–wildlife conflict or inter‐species competition.

Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Fine-scale farming features drive resource selection of a small carnivore of conservation concern

Anthropogenic factors are accelerating species extinction, with small mammalian carnivores among the most affected. These species play vital ecological roles, yet their conservation needs are often overlooked. Our study focused on the plains spotted skunk ( Spilogale interrupta (Rafinesque, 1820)), a small carnivore that has experienced population declines. We hypothesized that their resource selection was influenced by factors expected to influence prey availability, protection from predators, and human activity. We tracked 14 plains spotted skunks in east-central South Dakota, USA, over 2 years during spring and summer. Using mixed-effects logistic regression, we identified seasonal habitat associations. In spring, plains spotted skunks selected areas near farming structures and human development, avoiding high wetland density and crop cover. In summer, they continued to select areas near farming structures and low human development, but also high wetland density and pasture, while avoiding hay bales and crop cover. Our first analysis of the species’ resource use in the Great Plains indicates that plains spotted skunks select habitats with permanent small-scale agricultural features and varying levels of human development across seasons. Our findings suggest that species’ persistence in the region may depend on conservation strategies that account for seasonal planning, habitat heterogeneity, and key agricultural structures.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗
USGS2009

Development of a local-scale urban stream assessment method using benthic macroinvertebrates: An example from the Santa Clara Basin, California

Research that explores the biological response to urbanization on a site-specific scale is necessary for management of urban basins. Recent studies have proposed a method to characterize the biological response of benthic macroinvertebrates along an urban gradient for several climatic regions in the USA. Our study demonstrates how this general framework can be refined and applied on a smaller scale to an urbanized basin, the Santa Clara Basin (surrounding San Jose, California, USA). Eighty-four sampling sites on 14 streams in the Santa Clara Basin were used for assessing local stream conditions. First, an urban index composed of human population density, road density, and urban land cover was used to determine the extent of urbanization upstream from each sampling site. Second, a multimetric biological index was developed to characterize the response of macroinvertebrate assemblages along the urban gradient. The resulting biological index included metrics from 3 ecological categories: taxonomic composition ( Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera), functional feeding group (shredder richness), and habit ( clingers). The 90 th -quantile regression line was used to define the best available biological conditions along the urban gradient, which we define as the predicted biological potential. This descriptor was then used to determine the relative condition of sites throughout the basin. Hierarchical partitioning of variance revealed that several site-specific variables (dissolved O 2 and temperature) were significantly related to a site's deviation from its predicted biological potential. Spatial analysis of each site's deviation from its biological potential indicated geographic heterogeneity in the distribution of impaired sites. The presence and operation of local dams optimize water use, but modify natural flow regimes, which in turn influence stream habitat, dissolved O 2 , and temperature. Current dissolved O 2 and temperature regimes deviate from natural conditions and appear to affect benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages. The assessment methods presented in our study provide finer-scale assessment tools for managers in urban basins. ?? North American Benthological Society.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗
USGS2019

Design and methods of the U.S. Geological Survey Northeast Stream Quality Assessment (NESQA), 2016

During 2016, as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project (NAWQA), the U.S. Geological Survey conducted the Northeast Stream Quality Assessment (NESQA) to investigate stream quality in the northeastern United States. The goal of the NESQA was to assess the health of wadeable streams in the region by characterizing multiple water-quality factors that are stressors to aquatic life and by evaluating the relation between these stressors and the condition of biological communities. Urbanization, agriculture, and human modifications to streamflow are anthropogenic changes that greatly affect water quality in the region; consequently, the study design primarily selected sites and targeted stressors associated with these activities. The NESQA built on a prior NAWQA study conducted in the region in 2014, the Atlantic Highlands flow-ecology study, which investigated the effects of anthropogenically modified flows on aquatic biological communities in primarily forested watersheds. Land-cover data for the NESQA were used to identify and select sites within the region that had watersheds ranging in levels of urban and agricultural development. A total of 95 sites were selected: 67 on streams in watersheds representing a range of urban land use, 13 on streams in watersheds with some degree of agricultural land use, and 15 on streams in predominantly forested watersheds with little development. Depending on land-cover characteristics, sites were sampled weekly for metal and organic contaminants, nutrients, and sediment for either a 9-week period that began the week of June 6, 2016, or a 4-week period that begin the week of July 11, 2016. Beginning August 1, 2016, and for about 2 weeks, an ecological survey was conducted at every site to assess stream habitat, and algal, benthic invertebrate, and fish communities. Additional samples collected during the ecological surveys were streambed sediment for chemical analysis and toxicity testing, and fish tissue for mercury analysis. This report describes the various study components and methods of the NESQA and describes a precursor effort for the Atlantic Highlands flow-ecology study. Details are presented for measurements of water quality, sediment chemistry, streamflow, and ecological surveys of stream biota and habitat, as well as processes of sample analysis, quality assurance and quality control, and data management.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1999

Biological, habitat, and water quality conditions in the upper Merced River drainage, Yosemite National Park, California, 1993-1996

Four studies were done in the upper Merced River drainage in Yosemite National Park and nearby areas from 1993 to 1996. First, monitoring studies of benthic algae, benthic invertebrates, fish, and habitat were undertaken at sites near Happy Isles and Pohono bridges from 1993 to 1995 as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. Second, an ecological survey of benthic algae, benthic invertebrates, fish, and habitat was done in the upper Merced River drainage in 1994. Third, a special study of benthic algae, habitat, and water quality was done in the reach of the Merced River within Yosemite Valley to deter-mine whether human activities were having measurable effects on the ecosystem. Fourth, baseline data on benthic algae, benthic invertebrates, and habitat were collected in 1996 at four sites, two of which were undergoing extensive streambank restoration activities. Comparisons of the baseline data with future collections could be used to assess the effects of streambank restoration on aquatic biota. The general conclusion from these studies is that water quality in the upper Merced River was very good from 1993-1996, despite high levels of human activities in some areas. Fish communities did not appear to be a useful indicator of habitat and water quality because of low species richness and the apparent importance of physical barriers in determining species distributions. Measurements of fish densities and size-distributions might be useful, but would be logistically difficult. Benthic algae and benthic invertebrates do appear to be useful in monitoring environmental conditions. Benthic algae may be more sensitive than benthic invertebrates to small environmental differences within years. Benthic algae were also more responsive than benthic invertebrates to differences in discharge between years. Thus, benthic invertebrates may be more useful in comparing environmental conditions between years, independent of discharge conditions.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2006

Assessing peridomestic entomological factors as predictors for Lyme disease

The roles of entomologic risk factors, including density of nymphal blacklegged ticks ( Ixodes scapularis ), prevalence of nymphal infection with the etiologic agent ( Borrelia burgdorferi) , and density of infected nymphs, in determining the risk of human Lyme disease were assessed at residences in the endemic community of South Kingstown, RI. Nymphs were sampled between May and July from the wooded edge around 51 and 47 residential properties in 2002 and 2003, respectively. Nymphs were collected from all residences sampled. Tick densities, infection rates, and densities of infected nymphs were all significantly higher around homes reporting Lyme disease histories in 2003, while only infection rates were significantly higher in 2002. However, densities of infected nymphs did not significantly predict the probability of Lyme disease at a residence (by logistic regression) in either year. There were no significant differences in entomologic risk factors between homes with state-confirmed Lyme disease histories and homes with self-reported cases (not reported to the state health department). Therefore, although entomologic risk factors tended to be higher at residences with cases of Lyme disease, entomological indices, in the absence of human behavior measures, were not useful predictors of Lyme disease at the scale of individual residences in a tick-endemic community.

Rhode Island↗
USGS2018

Marine threats overlap key foraging habitat for two imperiled sea turtle species in the Gulf of Mexico

Effective management of human activities affecting listed species requires understanding both threats and animal habitat-use patterns. However, the extent of spatial overlap between high-use foraging areas (where multiple marine species congregate) and anthropogenic threats is not well known. Our modeling approach incorporates data on sea turtle spatial ecology and a suite of threats in the Gulf of Mexico to identify and map “hot spots” of threats to two imperiled turtle species. Of all 820 “high” threats grid cells, our tracked turtles foraged at least one day in 77% of them. Although threat data were not available outside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone, our map of turtle and threat “hotspots” can be incorporated in future more comprehensive threat analyses for the region. Knowledge of these shared foraging- and threat-areas can assist managers charged with designing effective conservation and population recovery strategies, in future habitat modeling efforts, and in designations of Gulf of Mexico habitat with high conservation value.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2010

Large reservoirs: Chapter 17

Large impoundments, defined as those with surface area of 200 ha or greater, are relatively new aquatic ecosystems in the global landscape. They represent important economic and environmental resources that provide benefits such as flood control, hydropower generation, navigation, water supply, commercial and recreational fisheries, and various other recreational and esthetic values. Construction of large impoundments was initially driven by economic needs, and ecological consequences received little consideration. However, in recent decades environmental issues have come to the forefront. In the closing decades of the 20th century societal values began to shift, especially in the developed world. Society is no longer willing to accept environmental damage as an inevitable consequence of human development, and it is now recognized that continued environmental degradation is unsustainable. Consequently, construction of large reservoirs has virtually stopped in North America. Nevertheless, in other parts of the world construction of large reservoirs continues. The emergence of systematic reservoir management in the early 20th century was guided by concepts developed for natural lakes (Miranda 1996). However, we now recognize that reservoirs are different and that reservoirs are not independent aquatic systems inasmuch as they are connected to upstream rivers and streams, the downstream river, other reservoirs in the basin, and the watershed. Reservoir systems exhibit longitudinal patterns both within and among reservoirs. Reservoirs are typically arranged sequentially as elements of an interacting network, filter water collected throughout their watersheds, and form a mosaic of predictable patterns. Traditional approaches to fisheries management such as stocking, regulating harvest, and in-lake habitat management do not always produce desired effects in reservoirs. As a result, managers may expend resources with little benefit to either fish or fishing. Some locally expressed effects, such as turbidity and water quality, zooplankton density and size composition, or fish growth rates and assemblage composition, are the upshot of large-scale factors operating outside reservoirs and not under the direct control of reservoir managers. Realistically, abiotic and biotic conditions in reservoirs are shaped by factors working inside and outside reservoirs, with the relative importance of external factors differing among reservoirs. With this perspective, large reservoirs are viewed from a habitat standpoint within the framework of a conceptual model in which individual reservoir characteristics are influenced by both local- and landscape-scale factors (Figure 17.1). In the sections that follow, how each element of this hierarchical model influences habitat and fish assemblages in reservoirs is considered. Important in-reservoir habitat issues and reservoirs as part of larger systems, where reservoir management requires looking for real solutions outside individual reservoirs are described.

Book chapter↗
USGS2018

Use of landscape simulation modeling to quantify resilience for ecological applications

Goals of fostering ecological resilience are increasingly used to guide U.S. public land management in the context of anthropogenic climate change and increasing landscape disturbances. There are, however, few operational means of assessing the resilience of a landscape or ecosystem. We present a method to evaluate resilience using simulation modeling. In this method, we use historical conditions (e.g., in North America, prior to European settlement), quantified using simulation modeling, to provide a comparative reference for contemporary conditions, where substantial departures indicate loss of resilience. Contemporary ecological conditions are compared statistically to the historical time series to create a resilience index, which can be used to prioritize landscapes for treatment and inform possible treatments. However, managing for resilience based on historical conditions is tenuous in the Anthropocene, which is characterized by rapid climate change, extensive human land use, altered disturbance regimes, and exotic species introductions. To account for the future variability of ecosystems resulting from climate and disturbance regime shifts, we augment historical simulations with simulations of ecosystem dynamics under projected climate and land use changes to assess the degree of departure from benchmark historical conditions. We use a mechanistic landscape model (FireBGCv2) applied to a large landscape in western Montana, USA, to illustrate the methods presented in this paper. Spatially explicit ecosystem modeling provides the vehicle to generate the historical and future time series needed to quantify potential resilience conditions associated with past and potential future conditions. Our methods show that given selection of a useful set of metrics, managers could use simulations like ours to evaluate potential future management directions.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2020

Near-term spatial hydrologic forecasting in Everglades, USA for landscape planning and ecological forecasting

Operational ecological forecasting is an emerging field that leverages ecological models in a new, cross-disciplinary way – using a real-time or nearly real-time climate forecast to project near-term ecosystem states. These applications give decision-makers lead time to anticipate and manage state changes that degrade ecosystem functions or directly impact humans. The Everglades Forecasting model (EverForecast) is an operational forecast model designed specifically for conservation management purposes including water management. It provides up to six-month forecasts of daily projected, spatially continuous stage values across the Everglades. We validated EverForecast quarterly to measured historical values at 207 gages (1 Jan 2000 – 31 Dec 2019). EverForecast hindcasted water stage accurately captured measured stage variation, with a low percentage of measured stage exceeding hindcasted values. Over the whole spatial extent, the mean RMSE is 20.98 cm, the mean MAE is 14.42 cm, and the mean MBE is 0.91 cm.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Hydraulic connectivity and hydrochemistry influence microbial community structure in agriculturally-affected alluvial aquifers in the Midwestern United States

Alluvial aquifers can provide ecosystem services and drinking water, but much remains unknown about human effects on aquifer microbiomes. Therefore, we used amplicon sequencing and hydrochemical characterization to pair microbial communities with environmental conditions across 37 alluvial aquifer wells. The study region spanned eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota (USA) and contained a combination of drinking water and monitoring wells. In terms of microbial ecology, dominant phyla across the wells included Proteobacteria, Bacteroidota, Patescibacteria, Planctomycetota, and Nitrospirota. Tritium, an indicator of infiltration and surface water influence, was the highest correlated variable with the Shannon index (α-diversity) by the Spearman rank sum (ρ = 0.60) and one of only four significant environmental variables in the constrained correspondence analysis. We built random forest regression models to predict tritium concentrations from microbial family relative abundance (held-out testing coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) = 0.77 and mean absolute percentage error = 7%) and interpreted the models with Shapley additive explanation values. The most important families for predicting tritium concentrations were Nitrosopumilaceae and Methylomirabilaceae . Upwelling methane could contribute to the unusual coupling of ammonia oxidation by Nitrosopumilaceae with simultaneous nitrite-dependent methane oxidation by Methylomirabilaceae . Taken together, we illuminate the relationship among hydrochemistry, hydraulic connectivity, and alluvial aquifer microbiomes.

Iowa, Minnesota↗
USGS2017

Host susceptibility to snake fungal disease is highly dispersed across phylogenetic and functional trait space

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) reduce host population sizes, cause extinction, disassemble communities, and have indirect negative effects on human well-being. Fungal EIDs have reduced population abundances in amphibians and bats across many species over large areas. The recent emergence of snake fungal disease (SFD) may have caused declines in some snake populations in the Eastern United States (EUS), which is home to a phylogenetically and ecologically diverse assembly of 98 taxa. SFD has been documented in only 23 naturally occuring species, although this is likely an underestimate of the number of susceptible taxa. Using several novel methods, including artificial neural networks, we combine phylogenetic and trait-based community estimates from all taxa in this region to show that SFD hosts are both phylogenetically and ecologically randomly dispersed. This might indicate that other species of snakes in the EUS could be currently infected or susceptible to SFD. Our models also indicate that information about key traits that enhance susceptiblity is lacking. Surveillance should consider that all snake species and habitats likely harbor this pathogen.

Science Advances↗
USGS2018

Coastal estuaries and lagoons: The delicate balance at the edge of the sea

Coastal communities are increasingly concerned about the dynamic balance between freshwater and saltwater because of its implications for societal, economic, and ecological resources. While the mixing of freshwater and saltwater sources defines coastal estuaries and lagoons, sudden changes in this balance can have a large effect on critical ecosystems and infrastructure. Any change to the delivery of water from either source has the potential to affect the health of both humans and natural biota and also to damage coastal infrastructure. This fact sheet discusses the potential of major shifts in the dynamic freshwater-saltwater balance to alter the environment and coastal stability.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2019

Review of Sky dance of the woodcock: The habits and habitats of a strange little bird by Greg Hoch

American Woodcock ( Scolopax minor ) have enthralled conservationists (including Aldo Leopold), bird watchers, wildlife enthusiasts, hunters, and others interested in the natural world for centuries. No doubt, woodcock also have enthralled humans in North America for millennia prior to written descriptions of the woodcock’s courtship displays, habitat preferences, and curious behavior and anatomy. As perhaps the most extensively studied species of shorebird in the world, there is a rich and extensive literature, both scientific and popular, focused on woodcock ecology, behavior, and hunting. To that extensive body of literature, Sky Dance of the Woodcock provides an updated summary of their natural history, habitat relations, and conservation. Sky Dance of the Woodcock takes its title from the courtship display of male woodcock, which consists of an elaborate aerial flight incorporating sound produced both vocally and mechanically via highly modified flight feathers. The aerial displays are accompanied by similarly unusual behavior on the ground, including a distinctive ‘peent’ call. This courtship display happens across much of eastern North America each spring, and Hoch uses this wonder to capture the imagination of the readers of his text. Hoch begins the book with an overview of some of the mystery and fascination surrounding woodcock and builds from that opening to describe woodcock anatomy, natural history, and behavior, before describing their courtship display in greater detail. From there, Hoch describes woodcock-habitat relations, provides a historical overview of woodcock hunting, identifies current threats to woodcock populations, summarizes past and recent woodcock research, and finally, presents an updated overview of woodcock conservation and habitat management. Throughout, there is sometimes surprising information about things as simple as what woodcock eat, to more complex assessment of how woodcock use landscapes and migrate to and from spring and summer breeding areas. This book will undoubtedly appeal to woodcock enthusiasts of a variety to stripes. Woodcock hunters and bird watchers alike will learn something about woodcock-habitat relations, behavior, and conservation. Professional biologists and researchers will benefit from Hoch’s synthesis of a wide range of information about woodcock, and landowners and managers can use some of the concepts in this book to inform their decisions about how to manage lands under their control. Along the way, everyone who reads Sky Dance of the Woodcock is likely to come away with an enhanced appreciation of this captivating bird.

Prairie Naturalist↗
USGS2022

Observed and forecasted changes in land use by polar bears in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, 1985–2040

Monitoring changes in the distribution of large carnivores is important for managing human safety and supporting conservation. Throughout much of their range, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are increasingly using terrestrial habitats in response to Arctic sea ice decline. Their increased presence in coastal areas has implications for bear-human conflict, inter-species interactions, and polar bear health and survival. We examined observed trends in land use over three decades by polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) where bears have traditionally spent most of the year on the sea ice. Using data from 408 adult females fitted with satellite radio-collars, we examined trends in the annual proportion of bears coming onshore (hereafter referred to as “percent of bears”) during the summer for ≥21 days, arrival and departure dates, duration spent onshore and relationships with sea ice metrics. We then estimated future land use through 2040 by extrapolating trends and by combining observed relationships between land use and sea ice with projections of future sea ice from an ensemble of earth system models. The observed percent of bears summering onshore and their duration onshore was correlated with the percent of open water that occurred within their population’s range between July and October. As sea ice declined, the percent of bears summering onshore increased from ~5 to 30% in the SB and ~10 to 50% in the CS and duration onshore increased by >30 days to 60–70 days in both populations. Using a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and adjustments for faster than forecasted sea ice loss we estimated that 50-62% of SB and 79-88% of CS bears will spend 90–108 and 110–126 days onshore during summer in the SB and CS, respectively, by 2040. Sea ice projections varied little between greenhouse gas emission scenarios prior to 2040 but diverged thereafter. Observed and forecasted increases in polar bear land occupancy puts more bears in proximity to human activities and settlements for longer durations while extending the lack of access to their primary prey. Because human conflict is one of the primary factors affecting the conservation of large carnivores worldwide, mitigation of bear-human interactions on land will be an increasingly important component of polar bear conservation.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Predicting disease spread from host movement data: Chronic wasting disease in North America as a case study

1. Rare long-distance movements can increase the spatial spread of invasive species and shifts in species ranges. However, in the context of wildlife disease spread, seasonal migrations only matter if they lead to transmission beyond an individual’s initial set of contacts, and the importance of juvenile dispersal depends on whether those juveniles become infected before they disperse. 2. High resolution animal movement data are increasing, but it is unclear how to leverage these data to improve predictions future disease spread particularly in regions without pre-existing movement data. 3. We predicted the speed of chronic wasting disease (CWD) spread based on movement metrics of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and compared our predictions to observed spreading rates in North America from 2005 to 2022. We hypothesized that CWD should spread faster in regions with long-distance migratory mule deer, but this hypothesis was only partially supported. 4. Observed rates of CWD spread were faster in western epicenters with more mobile mule deer than in epicenters with only white-tailed deer (14-18 km/yr compared to 5-7 km/yr, respectively). However, the observed speed of CWD spread did not align well with migration distances. Deer movements in the Canadian Prairie Provinces (CPP) were far shorter than those in Colorado and Wyoming, yet had faster CWD spread much of which was open prairies where deer movements tend to be along riverine corridors rather than the longer elevational migrations in more montane regions. 5. Generally, our predicted rates of CWD spread from three different models were far slower than the observed rates regardless of whether the model included dispersal or migration. Understanding of these discrepancies is needed before high-resolution animal movement data can be used to predict broad-scale patterns of disease invasion. 6. Anthropogenic movements likely explain longer-distance movements of CWD across North America, but it remains unclear whether human-mediated movements or alternative analytical methods and deer movement metrics can explain the faster than predicted local CWD spread.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗