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Results for “Ecological Complexity”

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At least 955 records · Page 53Linked to original sources

USGS1997

An energy-circuit population model for great egrets (Ardea alba) at Lake Okeechobee, Florida, U.S.A

I simulated the annual population cycles of Great Egrets ( Ardea alba ) at Lake Okeechobee, Florida, to provide a framework for evaluating the local population dynamics of nesting and foraging wading birds. The external forcing functions were solar energy, minimum air temperature, water depth, surface-water drying rate, and season. Solar input controlled the production of prey at moderate to high lake stages, but water area exerted primary control during a two-year drought. Modeling prey production as a linear function of water area resulted in underestimation of prey density during the drought, suggesting that prey organisms maintained high fecundity while concentrated in submerged vegetation at the lakeward fringe of the littoral zone. Simulation confirmed that large influxes of wading birds during the drought were the combined result of a regional refuge response and the availability of concentrated prey. Modeling immigration and emigration as primarily functions of the surface-water drying rate, rather than lake stage, resulted in a closer match of observed and simulated population trends for foraging birds, suggesting that the pattern of surface-water fluctuations was a more important factor than water depth. Simulation indicated an abrupt-threshold response rather than a linear association between foraging efficiency and low temperatures, which reduce activity levels of forage fishes. Great Egret breeder recruitment is primarily a function of prey availability, climate, and hydrologic trends, but simulation confirmed the concurrent involvement of a seasonal or physiological-readiness factor. An attractor function driven by high winter lake stages was necessary to reproduce observed patterns of breeder recruitment, suggesting that Great Egrets initiate nesting based on environmental cues that lead to peak food availability when nestlings are present. Poor correspondence of reproductive effort and nest productivity suggested that the drought compromised the birds' predictive abilities. The need to model breeder recruitment as a function of a maximum rate rather than the size of the local foraging population suggested that birds may nest on the lake even though on-lake foraging conditions are poor. Simulated and observed estimates of egg and hatching production did not match, suggesting that the causes of failure during incubation were complex or more localized than could be accounted for with lakewide hydrologic and climatic data. A forced increase in prey consumption of 12% was necessary to reproduce observed, high levels of nest productivity in 1990, which corresponded to the finding that panhandled fish constituted 10–12% of the biomass fed to Great Egret nestlings that year.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

Do mule deer surf peaks in forage quality while on summer range?

Many animals track ephemeral peaks in food abundance and quality that propagate across landscapes. Migrating ungulates, in particular, track waves of newly emerging plants from low-elevation winter ranges to high-elevation summer ranges—known as “green-wave surfing.” Because plants lose crude protein and gain insoluble fiber with maturation, ruminants are expected to exploit peaks in forage quality among individual plants (i.e., Forage Maturation Hypothesis). Although ample evidence supports the long-standing hypothesis that migratory ungulates surf peaks in forage quality during migration, the hypothesis that ungulates track peaks in forage quality at a small scale (i.e., microsurf while on summer range) remains less known. We studied a partially migratory population of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) in Wyoming, USA, to understand whether temperate ungulates optimize the use of high-quality forage as plants grow and senesce on disparate summer ranges. Specifically, we evaluated how crude protein, digestible energy, and relative abundance changed throughout the growing season and whether deer altered their diet to reflect species-specific changes in plant phenology. In support of the Forage Maturation Hypothesis, forage quality declined as large-scale patterns of phenology progressed away from a remotely sensed metric of peak green-up for most plant species on the summer ranges of deer that migrated short (<50 km), medium (50–130 km), and long distances (>130 km). Declining rates in forage quality among plant species were heterogeneous, providing deer with the phenological diversity required to microsurf. Deer changed their diet throughout the growing season and prioritized the consumption of some plants, including Rosa woodsii and Purshia tridentata , as the rank of forage quality increased ( p < 0.01). In light of the complexities common to studies on foraging behavior, our findings suggest that deer may have some potential to microsurf on summer range when heterogeneity in resource phenology is prevalent. Moreover, our findings validate the accuracy of remote sensing in quantifying peak forage quality for plants within sagebrush shrublands and montane habitats.

Wyoming↗

USGS1944

Food habits of blue grouse

The food habits of Blue Grouse vary from a simple winter diet that is made up predominantly of coniferous needles to a complex diet during the summer months, characterized by great variety of foods including green leaves, fruits and seeds, flowers, animal matter and coniferous needles. The spring and fall, which represent the transition periods between these two, are characterized by feeding habits that are generally intermediate. The diets of the two species of Blue Grouse, Dendrugapus obscurus and Dendragapus juliginosus, are quite similar as far as major types of food are concerned, but they differ considerably in the species that are taken. Such differences reflect differences in the vegetation within the ecologic and geographic ranges occupied by the two species.

Condor↗

USGS1936

Mortality of fish in Lake Erie

Great Lakes Fisherman↗

USGS2003

Long-term fitness consequences of early conditions in the kittiwake

1. The long - term fitness consequences of conditions during development are receiving growing attention: they are at the interface between ecological and evolutionary processes. We addressed the influence of the length of the rearing period and 'rank' on fitness components in a long -lived seabird species with deferred breeding: the kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla). Rank, which depends on hatching order, was used as a surrogate for dominance status in the brood. Rank could be viewed as a random factor affecting individuals regardless of their possible 'intrinsic quality' at birth. The length of the rearing period was used as a surrogate for parental effort. It reflects the interaction between numerous factors such as environmental conditions , parental quality, reproductive decisions and effort, and also offspring decisions and intrinsic quality at birth. 2. There was evidence of an influence of the length of the rearing period on local survival before recruitment. Individuals with shorter rearing periods had lower local survival during the first winter (e.g. the relationship was positive). They may incur higher mortality. In rank 1 prebreeders, this relationship was negative in older age-classes. Longer rearing periods and better condition at independence may be associated with stronger migrating ability, and prebreeders that have not yet made settlement decisions may emigrate permanently to distant locations. Such a complex pattern may reflect age-related changes in the relative contribution of mortality and permanent emigration to local survival. 3. The length of the rearing period had long - term consequences on reproductive performance. The relationship was positive but the rate of increase decreased slightly at higher values of the covariate. 4. There was an unambiguously negative influence of rank on survival before recruitment and recruitment probability, but not on demographic parameters specific to the reproductive stage. Juniors recruited later than elder siblings. The disadvantage of juniors may be expressed mainly in terms of higher mortality and disappearance from the population before recruitment.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2021

Mangroves and people: Impacts and interactions

Mangroves have long been associated with human populations, as coastal communities rely on the various ecosystem services that mangroves provide. However, human degradation and destruction of mangrove forests is common, despite and because of our reliance on them as valuable ecosystems. Mangrove research and management must elucidate and reconcile these conflicts to maintain mangrove forests and the services that humans depend on. To better understand the complex dynamics, interactions and relationships that exist between mangroves and coastal communities, the 5th Mangrove Macrobenthos and Management (MMM5) conference was held in Singapore in July 2019, with the theme “ Mangroves and People: Impacts and Interactions”. This theme was chosen because Southeast Asia is the epicentre of ongoing mangrove loss, and a large number of coastal communities in the region rely on the ecosystem services that mangroves provide. The 32 papers published in this Special Issue represent the breadth of mangrove research presented at MMM5, including topics in faunal biology, ecosystem ecology, genetics, physical geography, biogeochemistry, remote sensing and the social sciences. The articles are characterized under the following topics: 1) mangrove ecosystem functioning; 2) range expansion of mangroves; 3) ecosystem services of mangroves; 4) anthropogenic and natural threats to mangroves; and 5) the management and social-ecology of mangroves. This Special Issue highlights the current state of the art of mangrove research and application, and describes a number of emerging new ideas and research opportunities that will continue to advance mangrove ecosystem science into the future.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

USGS2021

Biodiversity–productivity relationships in a natural grassland community vary under diversity loss scenarios

Understanding the biodiversity–productivity relationship and underlying mechanisms in natural ecosystems under realistic diversity loss scenarios remains a major challenge for ecologists despite its importance for predicting impacts of rapid loss of biodiversity worldwide. Here we report the results of a plant functional group (PFG) removal experiment conducted on the Mongolian Plateau, the largest remaining natural grassland in the world. Our results demonstrated that the biodiversity–productivity relationship varied among positive linear, neutral and unimodal forms under different PFG loss patterns. Moreover, the form of this relationship with the same PFG loss pattern sometimes changed through time. The abundance of the remaining PFG(s) before removal and their compensation following the loss of other PFGs were two major mechanisms affecting the biodiversity–productivity relationship under diversity loss scenarios. The abundance effect promoted positive responses of productivity to biodiversity, but the compensation effect caused several biodiversity–productivity relationships, hinging on its direction (positive or negative) and strength. As indicated by the values of the compensation index, negative, zero and partial compensations contributed to the positive relationships, while full compensation resulted in a neutral relationship. Overcompensation at intermediate PFG richness levels created a unimodal curve in our system, but it could also lead to a negative linear relationship. Synthesis . Our experiment provides a vivid picture of how the form of the biodiversity–productivity relationship varies among different diversity loss patterns in a natural ecosystem. We argue that compensation by the remaining species, which is not revealed by synthesized biodiversity experiments, plays a critical role in shaping the form of this relationship when diversity is lost from existing systems. The direction and strength of compensation are highly dependent on extirpation scenarios. Thus, impacts of biodiversity loss on natural ecosystems are likely more complex than predicted by the canonical positive saturating curve obtained from the synthesized biodiversity experiments. We suggest that models forecasting the consequences of biodiversity declines on natural ecosystems should take into account diversity loss patterns and the ensuing compensation.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2018

Site-scale disturbance best predicts moss, vascular plant, and amphibian indices in Ohio wetlands

Loss of wetland habitats and their associated biological communities is a major environmental concern. Quality assessment indices (QAIs) and indices of biological integrity (IBIs) are useful for assessing the responses of taxa to wetland habitat quality and land use in the surrounding landscape. We synthesized the results of our previous predictive modeling studies of five IBIs and QAIs for communities of mosses, vascular plants, and amphibians in forested and emergent wetlands in Ohio (USA). Overall, the single best predictor of these indices was a metric that estimated site-scale (i.e., within the wetland boundaries) substrate and habitat development, alteration, and disturbance. The second most important predictor was a metric that assessed site-scale wetland plant community types and quality, degree of interspersion, and microtopography. Landscape-scale variables better predicted moss and amphibian indices than either vascular plant index. Our results indicate that applying management practices that reduce the effects of site-scale anthropogenic disturbances and increase habitat complexity, such as creating forested buffers surrounding wetlands, increasing wetland contiguity, and creating hummocks and tussocks may simultaneously enhance amphibian, vascular plant, and moss communities in forested and emergent wetlands. Such a focused strategy may enable management agencies to more effectively apportion resources for wetland restoration and construction projects.

Ecological Restoration↗

USGS2016

Snake fungal disease: An emerging threat to wild snakes

Since 2006, there has been a marked increase in the number of reports of severe and often fatal fungal skin infections in wild snakes in the eastern USA. The emerging condition, referred to as snake fungal disease (SFD), was initially documented in rattlesnakes, where the infections were believed to pose a risk to the viability of affected populations. The disease is caused by Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola , a fungus recently split from a complex of fungi long referred to as the Chrysosporium anamorph of Nannizziopsis vriesii (CANV). Here we review the current state of knowledge about O. ophiodiicola and SFD. In addition, we provide original findings which demonstrate that O. ophiodiicola is widely distributed in eastern North America, has a broad host range, is the predominant cause of fungal skin infections in wild snakes and often causes mild infections in snakes emerging from hibernation. This new information, together with what is already available in the scientific literature, advances our knowledge of the cause, pathogenesis and ecology of SFD. However, additional research is necessary to elucidate the factors driving the emergence of this disease and develop strategies to mitigate its impacts.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2019

Temporal gamma-diversity meets spatial alpha-diversity in dynamically varying ecosystems

Community measures collected at a single instance or over a short temporal period rarely provide a complete accounting of biological diversity. The gap between such “snapshot” measures of diversity and actual diversity can be especially large in systems that undergo great temporal variation in environmental conditions. To adequately quantify diversity in these temporally varying ecosystems, individual measures of diversity collected throughout the range of environmental variation, i.e., temporal alpha-diversity measures, must be combined to obtain temporal gamma-diversity. Such a time-integrated gamma-diversity measure will be a much closer approximation of a site’s true alpha-diversity and provide a measure better comparable to spatial alpha-diversity measures of sites with lower temporal variation for which a single or a few “snapshot” measures may suffice. We used aquatic-macroinvertebrate community-composition data collected over a 24-year period from a complex of 16 prairie-pothole wetlands to explore the rate that taxa accumulate over time at sites with differing degrees of temporal variation. Our results show that the rate of taxa accumulation over time, i.e., the slope of the species–time relationship, is steeper for wetlands with ponds that frequently dry compared to those with more-permanent ponds. Additionally, we found that a logarithmic function better fit species accumulation data for seasonally ponded wetlands whereas a power function better fit accumulations for permanently and semi-permanently ponded wetlands. Thus, interpretations of ecological diversity measures, and conservation decisions that rely on these interpretations, can be biased if temporal variations in community composition are not adequately represented.

North Dakota↗

USGS2021

A combined microbial and ecosystem metric of carbon retention efficiency explains land cover-dependent soil microbial biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships

While soil organic carbon (C) is the foundation of productive and healthy ecosystems, the impact of the ecology of microorganisms on C-cycling remains unknown. We manipulated the diversity, applied here as species richness, of the microbial community present in similar soils on two contrasting land-covers—an adjacent pasture and forest—and observed the transformations of plant detritus and soil organic matter (SOM) using stable isotope ( 13 C) tracing coupled with a novel nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) experiment. The amount of detritus-C degraded was not affected by the microbial diversity (p > 0.05), however the fate of detritus- and SOM-C across the diversity gradient was complex and land cover-dependent. For example, in the pasture soil, higher diversity led to lower CO 2 production (p = 0.001), a trend driven solely by SOM-C mineralization. There was no relationship between diversity and detritus-C mineralization or production of new mineral-associations after one year (p > 0.05). In contrast, in the forest soil higher diversity resulted in increased detritus-C (p = 0.01) and SOM-C (p = 0.0008) mineralization and decreased mineral-associated organic matter formation (p = 0.02). In both land cover types, retention efficiency—a measure that integrates both microbial physiology and the ability of the ecosystem to retain C—explained C loss and transformation trends. Overall, this demonstrates that the trajectory of C gained and lost is altered by land management-induced changes to microbial communities, soil structure, and chemical characteristics underlying SOM persistence.

Biogeochemistry Letters↗

USGS2007

Science Review for the Scott Bar Salamander (Plethodon asupak) and the Siskiyou Mountains Salamander (P. stormi): Biology, Taxonomy, Habitat, and Detection Probabilities/Occupancy

The Plethodon elongatus Complex in the Klamath-Siskiyou Ecoregion of southern Oregon and northern California includes three species: the Del Norte salamander, Plethodon elongatus; the Siskiyou Mountains salamander, P. stormi; and the Scott Bar salamander, P. asupak. This review aims to summarize the current literature and information available on select topics for P. stormi and P. asupak. These are both terrestrial salamanders belonging to the Family Plethodontidae, which contains more species and has a wider geographic distribution than any other family of salamanders (Wake 1966, 2006; Pough 1989). The genera of this family have greatly diversified ecologically across North America, Central America, northern South America, Sardinia, southeastern France and northwestern Italy, and have recently been discovered on the Korean peninsula (Min et al. 2005). The genus Plethodon is found exclusively in North America and is split into three distinct clades, based upon morphology and phylogenetics (Highton and Larson 1979): eastern small Plethodon, eastern large Plethodon, and the western Plethodon. The western Plethodon are the greatest representation of Plethodontidae in the Pacific Northwest, with 8 species. The two species with the most restricted ranges of these regional congeners are the Siskiyou Mountains and Scott Bar salamanders. These salamanders occupy the interior of the Klamath-Siskiyou Ecoregion which straddles the California and Oregon state lines, between Siskiyou County (CA) and Jackson and Josephine Counties (OR). The relatively recent discovery of P. asupak (Mead et al. 2005) and the limited range of both species have created an environment of uncertain conservation status for these species. This review will focus on four central topics of concern for land and resource managers: Biology; Taxonomy; Habitat; and Detection Probabilities/Occupancy.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

Temporal variability in stream fish assemblage metrics and implications for long-term monitoring

High natural variability in the condition of fish communities in headwater streams complicates detection of long-term responses to changes in water quality. As a result, little is known about the impacts and recovery of fishes from acid deposition in streams of New York. Twenty-one fish metrics from annual electrofishing surveys at 13 streams sites in the Catskill and Adirondack mountains were assessed to quantify temporal variability and identify effective monitoring strategies for detecting change in headwater stream fish assemblages. Metrics included the density and biomass of Brook Trout populations and entire fish communities using length-, area-, and effort-based standardization techniques. Linear mixed models were used to estimate changes in coefficients of variation (CV) for different classes of metrics and standardization techniques, and a simulation-based power analysis was conducted to assess differences in statistical power for each metric with various sampling designs. Metric CV varied significantly as a result of standardization technique and whether metrics were calculated for the entire community or Brook Trout only. The sampling effort necessary to detect a 30% change with power of 0.80 was strongly correlated with CV (R 2 = 0.77). The number of sampling events at the 13 sites needed to detect this change ranged from 1 to >60, suggesting metric selection can strongly affect statistical power and the resources necessary to detect change. Thus, metric selection is a complex decision that must consider study objectives and biological relevance, in addition to natural variability and statistical power. However, adequate statistical power was achieved at relatively small sample sizes using certain metrics, indicating that fish communities in headwater streams can be a valuable component of long-term assessments of acidification impacts and recovery.

New York↗

USGS2026

Long-term effects of rangeland improvements on cattle distribution: A ranch-scale case study

Resource matching can be a common assumption that underlies anthropogenic rangeland improvements for wildlife or livestock. Countless resources are spent on targeted vegetation manipulations for both livestock and wildlife, but selection for improved areas has not been well quantified in livestock. This case study investigates whether cattle exhibit preferential use of historically improved rangeland sites within sagebrush steppe ecosystems, and whether these effects are relevant long-term compared with inherent landscape heterogeneity. We used a generalized linear mixed-effects resource selection function on Global Positioning System points collected at a fix rate of 2 h from a subset of animals grazing throughout 14 pastures (totaling 13 079 ha) over 3 yr to investigate cattle distribution in relation to historical rangeland improvements. These consisted of various methods for reducing woody plant cover and increasing forage production, most followed by grass and legume reseeding. Overall selection for treated areas was positive (0.16, P < 0.0 0 01), but highly variable (pasture estimates range from-1.81 to 0.77). Differences in enhanced vegetation index (EVI) accounted for 25% of the variation in treatment selection, whereas herbaceous production did not have an appreciable effect on treatment selection. Within individual pastures, the effects of landscape variables (distance to water, slope, herbaceous production, EVI, tree cover, and shrub cover) were more variable than treatment effects and on average 2.4-fold more influential to selection than anthropogenic treatments. Still, the combined effects of all landscape variables accounted for only 8% of the variation in site selection. The observed inconsistency among selection patterns underscores the complexity of large herbivore resource selection behavior, and the statistical challenges to modeling that behavior. These results provide limited and inconsistent support for the hypothesis that large herbivores select long-term (5–20 yr post establishment) for range improvements in relation to their forage quality/quantity in a resource-matching manner.

Utah↗

USGS2021

Great expectations: Deconstructing the process pathways underlying beaver-related restoration

Beaver-related restoration is a process-based strategy that seeks to address wide-ranging ecological objectives by reestablishing dam building in degraded stream systems. Although the beaver-related restoration has broad appeal, especially in water-limited systems, its effectiveness is not yet well documented. In this article, we present a process-expectation framework that links beaver-related restoration tactics to commonly expected outcomes by identifying the set of process pathways that must occur to achieve those expected outcomes. We explore the contingency implicit within this framework using social and biophysical data from project and research sites. This analysis reveals that outcomes are often predicated on complex process pathways over which humans have limited control. Consequently, expectations often shift through the course of projects, suggesting that a more useful paradigm for evaluating process-based restoration would be to identify relevant processes and to rigorously document how projects do or do not proceed along expected process pathways using both quantitative and qualitative data.

BioScience↗

USGS2017

Measuring fish and their physical habitats: Versatile 2D and 3D video techniques with user-friendly software

Applications of video in fisheries research range from simple biodiversity surveys to three-dimensional (3D) measurement of complex swimming, schooling, feeding, and territorial behaviors. However, researchers lack a transparently developed, easy-to-use, general purpose tool for 3D video measurement and event logging. Thus, we developed a new measurement system, with freely available, user-friendly software, easily obtained hardware, and flexible underlying mathematical methods capable of high precision and accuracy. The software, VidSync, allows users to efficiently record, organize, and navigate complex 2D or 3D measurements of fish and their physical habitats. Laboratory tests showed submillimetre accuracy in length measurements of 50.8 mm targets at close range, with increasing errors (mostly <1%) at longer range and for longer targets. A field test on juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) feeding behavior in Alaska streams found that individuals within aggregations avoided the immediate proximity of their competitors, out to a distance of 1.0 to 2.9 body lengths. This system makes 3D video measurement a practical tool for laboratory and field studies of aquatic or terrestrial animal behavior and ecology.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2016

Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

State and local water-resource managers need modeling tools to help them manage and protect water-supply resources for both human consumption and ecological needs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a decision-support tool to estimate the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflow. The Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool is a model that simulates the daily water balance of a reservoir. The reservoir simulation tool provides estimates of daily outflows from reservoirs and compares the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the volume of outflows from reservoirs with estimates of the unaltered streamflow that would occur if no dam were present. This tool will help environmental managers understand the complex interactions and tradeoffs between water withdrawals, reservoir operational practices, and reservoir outflows needed for aquatic habitats. A sensitivity analysis of the daily water balance equation was performed to identify physical and operational features of reservoirs that could have the greatest effect on reservoir outflows. For the purpose of this report, uncontrolled releases of water (spills or spillage) over the reservoir spillway were considered to be a proxy for reservoir outflows directly below the dam. The ratio of average withdrawals to the average inflows had the largest effect on spillage patterns, with the highest withdrawals leading to the lowest spillage. The size of the surface area relative to the drainage area of the reservoir also had an effect on spillage; reservoirs with large surface areas have high evaporation rates during the summer, which can contribute to frequent and long periods without spillage, even in the absence of water withdrawals. Other reservoir characteristics, such as variability of inflows, groundwater interactions, and seasonal demand patterns, had low to moderate effects on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of spillage. The reservoir simulation tool was used to simulate 35 single- and multiple-reservoir systems in Massachusetts over a 44-year period (water years 1961 to 2004) under two water-use scenarios. The no-pumping scenario assumes no water withdrawal pumping, and the pumping scenario incorporates average annual pumping rates from 2000 to 2004. By comparing the results of the two scenarios, the total streamflow alteration can be parsed into the portion of streamflow alteration caused by the presence of a reservoir and the additional streamflow alteration caused by the level of water use of the system. For each reservoir system, the following metrics were computed to characterize the frequency, duration, and magnitude of reservoir outflow volumes compared with unaltered streamflow conditions: (1) the median number of days per year in which the reservoir did not spill, (2) the median duration of the longest consecutive period of no-spill days per year, and (3) the lowest annual flow duration exceedance probability at which the outflows are significantly different from estimated unaltered streamflow at the 95-percent confidence level. Most reservoirs in the study do not spill during the summer months even under no-pumping conditions. The median number of days during which there was no spillage was less than 365 for all reservoirs in the study, indicating that, even under reported pumping conditions, the reservoirs refill to full volume and spill at least once during nondrought years, typically in the spring. Thirteen multiple-reservoir systems consisting of two or three hydrologically connected reservoirs were included in the study. Because operating rules used to manage multiple-reservoir systems are not available, these systems were simulated under two pumping scenarios, one in which water transfers between reservoirs are minimal and one in which reservoirs continually transferred water to intermediate or terminal reservoirs. These two scenarios provided upper and lower estimates of spillage under average pumping conditions from 2000 to 2004. For sites with insufficient data to simulate daily water balances, a proxy method to estimate the three spillage metrics was developed. A series of 4,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the reservoir water balance were run. In each simulation, streamflow, physical reservoir characteristics, and daily climate inputs were randomly varied. Tobit regression equations that quantify the relation between streamflow alteration and physical and operational characteristics of reservoirs were developed from the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and can be used to estimate each of the three spillage metrics using only the withdrawal ratio and the ratio of the surface area to the drainage area, which are available statewide for all reservoirs. A graphical user-interface for the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool was developed in a Microsoft Access environment. The simulation tool contains information for 70 reservoirs in Massachusetts and allows for simulation of additional scenarios than the ones considered in this report, including controlled releases, dam seepage and leakage, demand management plans, and alternative water withdrawal and transfer rules.

Massachusetts↗