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USGS2016

Silicic lunar volcanism: Testing the crustal melting model

Lunar silicic rocks were first identified by granitic fragments found in samples brought to Earth by the Apollo missions, followed by the discovery of silicic domes on the lunar surface through remote sensing. Although these silicic lithologies are thought to make up a small portion of the lunar crust, their presence indicates that lunar crustal evolution is more complex than originally thought. Models currently used to describe the formation of silicic lithologies on the Moon include in situ differentiation of a magma, magma differentiation with silicate liquid immiscibility, and partial melting of the crust. This study focuses on testing a crustal melting model through partial melting experiments on compositions representing lithologies spatially associated with the silicic domes. The experiments were guided by the results of modeling melting temperatures and residual melt compositions of possible protoliths for lunar silicic rocks using the thermodynamic modeling software, rhyolite-MELTS. Rhyolite-MELTS simulations predict liquidus temperatures of 950–1040 °C for lunar granites under anhydrous conditions, which guided the temperature range for the experiments. Monzogabbro, alkali gabbronorite, and KREEP basalt were identified as potential protoliths due to their ages, locations on the Moon (i.e., located near observed silicic domes), chemically evolved compositions, and the results from rhyolite-MELTS modeling. Partial melting experiments, using mixtures of reagent grade oxide powders representing bulk rock compositions of these rock types, were carried out at atmospheric pressure over the temperature range of 900–1100 °C. Because all lunar granite samples and remotely sensed domes have an elevated abundance of Th, some of the mixtures were doped with Th to observe its partitioning behavior. Run products show that at temperatures of 1050 and 1100 °C, melts of the three protoliths are not silicic in nature (i.e., they have <63 wt% SiO 2 ). By 1000 °C, melts of both monzogabbro and alkali gabbronorite approach the composition of granite, but are also characterized by immiscible Si-rich and Fe-rich liquids. Furthermore, Th strongly partitions into the Fe-rich, and not the Si-rich glass in all experimental runs. Our work provides important constraints on the mechanism of silicic melt formation on the Moon. The observed high-Th content of lunar granite is difficult to explain by silicate liquid immiscibility, because through this process, Th is not fractionated into the Si-rich phase. Results of our experiments and modeling suggests that silicic lunar rocks could be produced from monzogabbro and alkali gabbronorite protoliths by partial melting at T < 1000 °C. Additionally, we speculate that at higher pressures ( P ≥ 0.005 GPa), the observed immiscibility in the partial melting experiments would be suppressed.

American Mineralogist↗

USGS2024

Precision of four calcified structures for age estimation of Black Carp

Objective Black Carp Mylopharyngodon piceus is an emerging invasive species in North America with an expanding population in the Mississippi River basin. Current aging methods use a suite of structures for age estimation, and a single structure is needed to minimize processing time, to maximize consistency of age and growth measurements, and to allow for back-calculation of individual fish length at age. Methods In total, 236 Black Carp were collected throughout the year from 2017 to 2019 through incidental captures by commercial fishers and biologists. In a subsample, 119 Black Carp from 429 to 1268 mm total length were compared for the precision of annuli counts by two experienced readers for the two anterior pectoral fin rays, the anterior dorsal fin ray, sectioned vertebrae, and lapilli otoliths based on percent exact agreement (PA), percent agreement within 1 year (PA ± 1), coefficient of variation (CV), and bubble plots. Consensus annuli counts were compared by PA and CV between structures. We applied annuli counts, as opposed to age, as fish were collected during all seasons and structures were examined independently by readers without knowledge of capture date. Result Vertebrae and dorsal rays had the highest PA between readers. Dorsal ray had the lowest CV and higher PA ± 1. Pectoral rays and lapilli otoliths had the lowest PA. Between-structure consensus annuli counts indicated that pectoral rays and the dorsal ray annuli counts were the most similar (PA >70% and CV <12) and lapilli otoliths were the most dissimilar (PA >35% and CV >24). Reader-reported confidence was highest for vertebrae, then in decreasing order, dorsal ray, pectoral rays, and lapilli otoliths. Lumens were present in all fin rays with only minor effects observed on annuli counts, aside from the anterior-most pectoral fin ray, in which lumens obscured the presence of one or more potential annuli in 61% of structures. Conclusion The dorsal ray had the highest agreement between readers, with agreement with ±1 year at 98%; the structure can be efficiently extracted and processed, and the structure's morphology and growth pattern are conducive to aging older fish. Vertebrae had high agreement between readers, but a systematic pattern of double bands in vertebrae increased the between-reader variation in older fish as the interannual growth pattern compressed the viewable area; this was identified by readers based on aging criteria and highlights the need for training novice readers. Validation of annual growth in the tested suite of structures is still needed.

Mississippi River↗

USGS2016

Effects of Lead Exposure, Environmental Conditions, and Metapopulation Processes on Population Dynamics of Spectacled Eiders.

Spectacled eider Somateria fischeri numbers have declined and they are considered threatened in accordance with the US Endangered Species Act throughout their range. We synthesized the available information for spectacled eiders to construct deterministic, stochastic, and metapopulation models for this species that incorporated current estimates of vital rates such as nest success, adult survival, and the impact of lead poisoning on survival. Elasticities of our deterministic models suggested that the populations would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival and that the reductions in adult female survival related to lead poisoning were locally important. We also examined the sensitivity of the population to changes in lead exposure rates. With the knowledge that some vital rates vary with environmental conditions, we cast stochastic models that mimicked observed variation in productivity. We also used the stochastic model to examine the probability that a specific population will persist for periods of up to 50 y. Elasticity analysis of these models was consistent with that for the deterministic models, with perturbations to adult female survival having the greatest effect on population projections. When used in single population models, demographic data for some localities predicted rapid declines that were inconsistent with our observations in the field. Thus, we constructed a metapopulation model and examined the predictions for local subpopulations and the metapopulation over a wide range of dispersal rates. Using the metapopulation model, we were able to simulate the observed stability of local subpopulations as well as that of the metapopulation. Finally, we developed a global metapopulation model that simulates periodic winter habitat limitation, similar to that which might be experienced in years of heavy sea ice in the core wintering area of spectacled eiders in the central Bering Sea. Our metapopulation analyses suggested that no subpopulation is independent and that future management actions may be improved through a metapopulation framework. For example, management actions could include displacement of breeding females from"sink" areas that reduce the growth potential of the population as a whole. However, this action is contingent upon dispersal among local populations, for which there is limited information. Thus, we recommend that researchers examine dispersal behavior among areas on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in western Alaska. The metapopulation framework could also be applied at the rangewide scale to address the density-dependent limitation of available polynya habitat during winter that may limit the recovery of small subpopulations, such as that on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Reductions in other subpopulations may be necessary to ensure an increase in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta population. Thus, we recommend that managers consider the interpopulation dynamics of spectacled eiders at different spatial scales in future management actions.

Alaska↗

USGS1948

Turbidity as a factor in the decline of Great Lakes fishes with special reference to Lake Erie

Fish live and thrive in water with turbidities that range above 400 p.p.m. and average 200 p.p.m. The waters of the Great Lakes usually are clear except in Lake Erie where the turbidities of the inshore areas averaged 37 p.p.m.; the turbidities of the offshore waters averaged less. Lake Erie waters were no clearer 50 years ago than they are now. In fact, the turbidity values are less now than they were in the earlier years; the annual average of the inshore waters dropped from 44 p.p.m. before 1930 to 32 p.p.m. in 1930 and later, and the April-May values decreased from 72 p.p.m. to 46 p.p.m. Any general decline in the Lake Erie fishes cannot be attributed to increased turbidities. Furthermore, these turbidities averaged well below 100 p.p.m. and, therefore, were too low to affect fishes adversely. Turbidity in the open waters of Lake Erie is primarily the result of wave action induced by winds. River discharge is a minor factor even in the western end of the lake. Other probable factors are plankton, the eastward movement of the water mass, currents, seiches, and possibly bacteria. Wave action is undoubtedly the dominant agency in soil erosion along the shores of all of the Great Lakes. No evidence exists that fluctuations in the abundance of zooplankton, the basic food of fishes, and of the fishes themselves are positively correlated in Lake Erie or that the plankton crop in this lake is ever in short supply. On the contrary, all available evidence shows that Lake Erie is comparatively rich in plankton and that the western end in spite of its turbidity is richer than the eastern. Some factor other than turbidity dominates the basic productivity of western Lake Erie. With respect to turbidity Lake Erie has not become less suitable for fishes. This conclusion also receives support from the study of the fishes themselves. It was demonstrated that the growth of the western Lake Erie fishes compared very favorably with that of fishes in the other Great Lakes or similar waters. It was shown further that the known occurrence of relatively strong year classes in this lake was not consistently associated with low turbidities and conversely that the known low turbidities of the Lake Erie waters were not always accompanied by large year classes. Also, contrary to the “turbidity theory,” certain clean-water varieties, such as the walleye, have increased tremendously in recent years in Lake Erie, whereas the supposedly turbid-water forms, such as the sauger, have decreased in abundance. Reference was made to Doan's work, wherein he attempted to show correlation between turbidity and abundance for several species of Lake Erie fish but failed to do so except for the sauger where he reported a positive correlation. With respect to the productivity of fishes Lake Erie ranks first among the Great Lakes, and the western end in spite of its greater turbidity surpasses the eastern. As judged by certain accepted standards of water suitability, Lake Erie ranks high, and the western end again surpasses the eastern. Finally, it was pointed out that fishes which inhabit the clear waters of the Great Lakes declined as well as those which live in the more turbid waters and that turbidity, therefore, cannot be a factor in the depletion of all Great Lakes fishes. Furthermore, the reduction in abundance repeatedly has been associated with increased fishing intensity. All of the evidence indicates, then, that soil erosion on farms and the turbidity of the water were not major factors, if operative at all, in the decline of Great Lakes fishes and that they did not make Lake Erie unsuitable for fish life.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2007

Assessment and management of dead-wood habitat

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is in the process of revising its resource management plans for six districts in western and southern Oregon as the result of the settlement of a lawsuit brought by the American Forest Resource Council. A range of management alternatives is being considered and evaluated including at least one that will minimize reserves on O&C lands. In order to develop the bases for evaluating management alternatives, the agency needs to derive a reasonable range of objectives for key issues and resources. Dead-wood habitat for wildlife has been identified as a key resource for which decision-making tools and techniques need to be refined and clarified. Under the Northwest Forest Plan, reserves were to play an important role in providing habitat for species associated with dead wood (U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management, 1994). Thus, the BLM needs to: 1) address the question of how dead wood will be provided if reserves are not included as a management strategy in the revised Resource Management Plan, and 2) be able to evaluate the effects of alternative land management approaches. Dead wood has become an increasingly important conservation issue in managed forests, as awareness of its function in providing wildlife habitat and in basic ecological processes has dramatically increased over the last several decades (Laudenslayer et al., 2002). A major concern of forest managers is providing dead wood habitat for terrestrial wildlife. Wildlife in Pacific Northwest forests have evolved with disturbances that create large amounts of dead wood; so, it is not surprising that many species are closely associated with standing (snags) or down, dead wood. In general, the occurrence or abundance of one-quarter to one-third of forest-dwelling vertebrate wildlife species, is strongly associated with availability of suitable dead-wood habitat (Bunnell et al., 1999; Rose et al., 2001). In Oregon and Washington, approximately 150 species of wildlife are reported to use dead wood in forests (O’Neil et al., 2001). Forty-seven sensitive and special-status species are associated with dead wood (Appendix A). These are key species for management consideration because concern over small or declining populations is often related to loss of suitable dead-wood habitat (Marshall et al., 1996). Primary excavators (woodpeckers) also are often the focus of dead-wood management, because they perform keystone functions in forest ecosystems by creating cavities for secondary cavity-nesters (Martin and Eadie, 1999; Aubry and Raley, 2002). A diverse guild of secondary cavity-users (including swallows, bluebirds, several species of ducks and owls, ash-throated flycatcher, flying squirrel, bats, and many other species) is unable to excavate dead wood, and therefore relies on cavities created by woodpeckers for nesting sites. Suitable nest cavities are essential for reproduction, and their availability limits population size (Newton, 1994). Thus, populations of secondary cavity-nesters are tightly linked to the habitat requirements of primary excavators. Although managers often focus on decaying wood as habitat for wildlife, the integral role dead wood plays in ecological processes is an equally important consideration for management. Rose et al. (2001) provide a thorough review of the ecological functions of dead wood in Pacific Northwest forests, briefly summarized here. Decaying wood functions in: soil development and productivity, nutrient cycling, nitrogen fixation, and carbon storage. From ridge tops, to headwater streams, to estuaries and coastal marine ecosystems, decaying wood is fundamental to diverse terrestrial and aquatic food webs. Wildlife species that use dead wood for cover or feeding are linked to these ecosystem processes through a broad array of functional roles, including facilitation of decay and trophic interactions with other organisms (Marcot, 2002; Marcot, 2003). For example, by puncturing bark and fragmenting sapwood, woodpeckers create sites favorable for wood-decaying organisms (Farris et al., 2004), which in turn create habitat for other species and facilitate nutrient cycling. Small mammals that use down wood for cover function in the dispersal of plant seeds and fungal spores (Carey et al., 1999). Resident cavitynesting birds may regulate insect populations by preying on overwintering arthropods (Jackson, 1979; Kroll and Fleet, 1979). These examples illustrate how dead wood not only directly provides habitat for a large number of wildlife species, but also forms the foundation of functional webs that critically influence forest ecosystems (Marcot, 2002; Marcot, 2003). The important and far-reaching implications of management of decaying wood highlight the need for conservation of dead-wood resources in managed forests. Consideration of the key ecological functions of species associated with dead wood can help guide management of dead wood in a framework consistent with the paradigm of ecosystem management (Marcot and Vander Heyden, 2001; Marcot, 2002.) As more information is revealed about the ecological and habitat values of decaying wood, concern has increased over a reduction in the current amounts of dead wood relative to historic levels (Ohmann and Waddell, 2002). Past management practices have tended to severely reduce amounts of dead wood throughout all stages of forest development (Hansen et al., 1991). The large amounts of legacy wood that characterize young post-disturbance forests are not realized in managed stands, because most of the wood volume is removed at harvest for economic and safety reasons. Mid-rotation thinning is used to “salvage” some mortality that might otherwise occur due to suppression, so fewer snags are recruited in mid-seral stages. Harvest rotations of 80 years or less truncate tree size in managed stands, and thus limit the production of large-diameter wood. As a consequence of these practices, dead wood has been reduced by as much as 90% after two rotations of managed Douglas-fir (Rose et al., 2001). Large legacy deadwood is becoming a scarce, critical habitat that will take decades to centuries to replace. Furthermore, management continues to have important direct and indirect effects on the amount and distribution of dead wood in forests. Current guidelines for managing dead wood may be inadequate to maintain habitat for all associated species because they largely focus on a single use of dead wood (nesting habitat) by a small suite of species (cavity-nesting birds), and may under represent the sizes and amounts of dead wood used by many wildlife species (Rose et al., 2001, Wilhere, 2003).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Pacifica, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 100 m) subsurface geology. The Offshore of Pacifica map area is located in northern California, on the Pacific coast of the San Francisco Peninsula about 10 kilometers south of the Golden Gate. The map area extends from Daly City, through Pacifica, to the small coastal community of Montara. Much of the coastal zone is managed by either the State of California or local governments, including Thornton Beach State Park, Mussel Rock Park, Pacifica State Beach, Gray Whale Cove State Beach, and Montara State Beach. The major structure in the transform boundary between the Pacific and North American tectonic plates, the northwest-striking San Andreas Fault, cuts through the map area, crossing the shoreline near Mussel Rock before continuing offshore. The epicenter of the great 1906 California earthquake is located on the offshore part of the San Andreas Fault Zone a few kilometers north of the map area. The map area is located at the northwest end of the Santa Cruz Mountains, much of which has been uplifted in the last 400,000 years. Southwest of the San Andreas Fault Zone, this uplift has resulted in a highly variable coastal morphology characterized by long, narrow beaches bounded by steep cliffs or marine terraces, small pocket beaches surrounded by rocky promontories, and steep, narrow coastal watersheds. Geologic units mapped along the coast include sedimentary, volcanic, and metamorphic rocks of the Franciscan Complex; Cretaceous granitic rocks; Tertiary sedimentary rocks; and Quaternary coastal marine terraces, deep-seated and shallow landslides, and beach and sand dune deposits, all of which contribute sediment to the coastal zone. In contrast to the more rural coastal zone to the south, the highly urbanized coastal zone north of Mussel Rock and the San Andreas Fault Zone is characterized by a narrow beach bounded by steep, 50- to 120-m-high cliffs made up of sand, silt, and clay of the Pliocene and Pleistocene Merced Formation, the source of numerous landslides. Two large landslides along “Northridge bluff” in 2003 and 2007 had estimated volumes of 305,800 to 382,300 m 3 and 120,800 m 3 , respectively. Coastal landslides also are an issue to the south between Mussel Rock and Mori Point, even as bluffs diminish in height and pocket beaches transition to a more continuous strand bounded by Quaternary-age dunes and low-lying marine terraces. Mori Point, a coastal promontory in Pacifica underlain by rocks of the Franciscan Complex, rises abruptly to a height of 90 m from the shoreline. Pocket beaches characterize the shoreline from Mori Point south to Shelter Cove, the largest of which, Pacifica State Beach, is at the mouth of San Pedro Creek. The coastal zone south of Pacifica, which stretches from Shelter Cove to Montara and includes Point San Pedro and Devils Slide, lies at the northwest end of San Pedro Mountain (underlain largely by early Tertiary sedimentary rocks) and Montara Mountain (underlain by Cretaceous granitic rocks). Elevations at Montara Mountain exceed 500 m just 4 km from the shoreline, and steep cliffs along the coast are as high as 275 m. This rugged terrain results in numerous rocky promontories, small pocket beaches, and large coastal landslides. Slope failures along Devils Slide are notorious for closing California Highway 1, creating such a large and persistent problem that the California Department of Transportation has bypassed this coastal section by tunneling through San Pedro Mountain; the tunnel was completed and the new section of highway opened in 2013. Coastal relief diminishes at Montara in the southernmost part of the map area, where the shoreline is bounded by 10- to 20-m-high marine terraces. Throughout the year, this part of the coast is exposed to the north Pacific swell, the southern swell, northwest wind waves, and local wind waves. The north Pacific swell dominates in winter months, having wave heights that range from 2 to 10 m at offshore buoys and wave periods that range from 10 to 25 s. During summer months, the largest waves come from the southern swell, generated by storms in the south Pacific and offshore of Central America. Characteristically, these swells have smaller wave heights (0.3–3 m) but similarly long wave periods (10–25 s). Local wind waves are most common from October to April, whereas northwest wind waves affect the coast throughout the year. These two wind-wave regimes typically have wave heights of 1 to 4 m and short wave periods (3–10 s). Unlike many other parts of the California coast where sediment is supplied primarily from river and (or) stream runoff, sediment supply to the offshore along this part of northern California is a complex mixture of (1) sand transported from the coast north of the Golden Gate, (2) sediment transported to the coast through the San Francisco Bay via the Golden Gate and then dispersed over the adjacent ebb-tide delta, and (3) varying volumes of sediment eroded from adjacent steep coastal bluffs caused by wave-induced landslides and other erosional events. Additionally, since the 1980s, coastal erosion south of the Golden Gate has increased substantially between Ocean Beach (on the west coast of San Francisco, about 5 km north of the map area) and Point San Pedro. The combined sediment load is transported southward along the coast by the generally north-to-south alongshore current, which develops in response to the energetic winter-wave climate associated with the north Pacific swell. Overall, beaches in the map area have a long-term erosional trend, except near Mussel Rock where a long-term accretionary trend may reflect increased sediment supply from landslides. Beach-front riprap armoring and retaining walls are used locally to protect the shoreline from seasonal storm waves, most notably between Mussel Rock and Mori Point. The continental shelf in the map area is about 40 km wide, with water depths at the shelf break that range from about 80 to 120 m. Within California’s State Waters, the midshelf to inner shelf areas are characterized by a relatively flat, shallow (water depths of as much as 44 m) seafloor that dips gently (about 0.2° to 0.3°) westward. The seafloor is composed primarily of unconsolidated Holocene sediment (marine deposits), as well as some nearshore bedrock outcrops that consist primarily of rocks of the Tertiary Purisima Formation and also Cretaceous plutonic rocks (granite or granodiorite).

California↗

USGS2018

Paleoclimate Records: Providing context and understanding of current Arctic change

At present, the Arctic Ocean is experiencing changes in ocean surface temperature and sea ice extent that are unprecedented in the era of satellite observations, which extend from the 1980s to the present (see sections 5c,d). To provide context for current changes, scientists turn to paleoclimate records to document and study anthropogenic influence and natural decadal and multidecadal climate variability in the Arctic system. Paleoceanographic records extend limited Arctic instrumental measurements back in time and are central to improving our understanding of climate dynamics and the predictive capability of climate models. By comparing paleoceanographic records with modern observations, scientists can place the rates and magnitudes of modern Arctic change in the context of those inferred from the geological record. Over geological time, paleoceanographic reconstructions using, for instance, marine sediment cores indicate that the Arctic has experienced huge sea ice fluctuations. These fluctuations range from nearly completely ice-free to totally ice-covered conditions. The appearance of ice-rafted debris and sea ice-dependent diatoms in Arctic marine sediments indicate that the first Arctic sea ice formed approxi-mately 47 million years ago (St. John 2008; Stickley et al. 2009; Fig. SB5.1), coincident with an interval of declining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, global climate cooling, and expansion of Earths cryosphere during the middle Eocene. The development of year-round (i.e., perennial) sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean, similar to conditions that exist today, is evident in sediment records as early as 1418 million years ago (Darby 2008). These records suggest that transitions in sea ice cover occur over many millennia and often vary in concert with the waxing and waning of circum-Arctic land ice sheets, ice shelves, and long-term fluctuations in ocean and atmospheric temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Stein et al. 2012; Jakobsson et al. 2014). Over shorter time scales, shallow sediment records from Arctic Ocean continental shelves allow more detailed, higher-resolution (hundreds of years resolution) reconstructions of sea ice history extending through the Holocene (11 700 years ago to present), the most recent interglacial period. A notable feature of these records is an early Holocene sea ice minimum, corresponding to a thermal maximum (warm) period from 11 000 to 5000 years ago, when the Arctic may have been warmer and had less summertime sea ice than today (Kaufman et al. 2004). However, it is not clear that the Arctic was ice-free at any point during the Holocene (Polyak et al. 2010). High-resolution paleosea ice records from the western Arctic in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas indicate that sea ice concentrations increased through the Holocene in concert with decreasing summer solar insolation (sunlight). Sea ice extent in this region also varied in response to the volume of Pacific water delivered via the Bering Strait into the Arctic Basin (Stein et al. 2017; Polyak et al. 2016). Records from the Fram Strait (Mller et al. 2012), Laptev Sea (Hrner et al. 2016), and Canadian Arctic Archipelago (Vare et al. 2009) also indicate a similar long-term expansion of sea ice and suggest sea ice extent in these regions is modulated by the varying influx of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Basin (e.g., Werner et al. 2013). Taken together, available records support a circum-Arctic sea ice expansion during the late Holocene. A notably high-resolution summer sea ice history (<5-year resolution) has been established for the last 1450 years using a network of terrestrial records (tree ring , lake sediment, and ice core records) located around the margins of the Arctic Ocean (Kinnard et al. 2011). Results summarized in Fig. SB5.2 indicate a pronounced decline in summer sea ice extent beginning in the 20th century, with exceptionally low ice extent recorded since the mid-1990s, consistent with the satellite record (see section 5d). While several episodes of reduced and expanded sea ice extent occur in association with climate anomalies such as the Medieval Climate Warm Period (AD 8001300) and the Little Ice Age (AD 14501850), the magnitude and pace of the modern decline in sea ice is outside of the range of natural variability and unprecedented in the 1450-year reconstruction (Kinnard et al. 2011). A radiocarbon-dated driftwood record of the Ellesmere ice shelf in the Canadian High Arctic, the oldest landfast ice in the Northern Hemisphere, also demonstrates a substantial reduction in ice extents over the 20th century (England et al. 2017). A supporting sediment record indicates that inflowing Atlantic water in Fram Strait has warmed by 2C since 1900, driving break up and melt of sea ice (Spielhagen et al. 2011). Complementary mooring and satellite observations show the Atlantification of the eastern Arctic due to enhanced inflow of warm saline water through Fram Strait (Nilsen et al. 2016) and nutrient-rich Pacific water via the Bering has increased by more than 50% (Woodgate et al. 2012), further driving sea ice melt and warming seas. Similar high-resolution proxy records from Arctic regions also indicate that the modern rate of increasing annual surface air temperatures has not been observed over at least the last 2000 years (McKay and Kaufman 2014). Scientists conclude that broad-scale sea ice variations recorded in the paleo record were dominantly driven by changes in basin-scale changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, fluctuations in air temperature, strength of incoming solar radiation, and changes in the inflow of warm water via Pacific and Atlantic inflows (Polyak et al. 2010). There is general consensus that ice-free Arctic summers are likely before the end of the 21st century (e.g., Stroeve et al. 2007; Massonnet et al. 2012), while some climate model projections suggest ice-free Arctic summers as early as 2030 (Wang and Overland 2009). Paleoclimate studies and observational time series attribute the decline in sea ice extent and thickness over the last decade to both enhanced greenhouse warming and natural climate variability. While understanding the interplay of these factors is critical for future projections of Arctic sea ice and ecosystems, most observational time series records cover only a few decades. This highlights the need for additional paleoceanographic reconstructions across multiple spatial and temporal domains to better understand the drivers and implications of present and future Arctic Ocean change.

Bulletin American Meteorological Society↗