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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources

Evaluating drought risk of the Red River of the North Basin using historical and stochastic streamflow upstream from Emerson, Manitoba

Drought and its effect on streamflow are important to understand because of the potential to adversely affect water supply, agricultural production, and ecological conditions. The Red River of the North Basin in north-central United States and central Canada is susceptible to dry conditions. During an extended drought, streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North may become inadequate to support existing water supply needs in the basin for agriculture, industry, human use, and aquatic life. To understand potential future low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, Red River Joint Water Resource District, and Red River Watershed Management Board, developed a water-balance model of the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba, Canada, and coupled the model with stochastic weather inputs to simulate possible future low-streamflow conditions. Historical changes in low-streamflow conditions were characterized across the Red River of the North Basin using multiple change-point analysis for 12 streamgages. Across these stations, significant change-point years in 1943 and 1994 marked increases in the magnitude of low-streamflow conditions. During 1920–2015, conversion of primary land (not affected by human use) to agricultural and secondary land was followed by a conversion from smalls grains to corn and soybeans as the dominant crop type. From land-use analysis, 1940–2000 was determined to have relatively stable land use and therefore was used as the calibration period for the water-balance model. A deterministic water-balance model was developed for the Red River of the North Basin upstream from Emerson, Manitoba. The water-balance model was calibrated with data from 37 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for 1940–2000 and verified using data for 2001–15. The calibrated water-balance model simulated streamflow distributions that mirrored the seasonal patterns of the observed mean monthly streamflow and the standard deviation of the monthly streamflow data, especially during the fall and winter months when streamflow was lowest. For the verification period, during the low-streamflow months of December through January, the difference between simulated and observed data was similar to the calibration comparison and successfully reproduced seasonal trends in the distribution of streamflow, even when using weather data that were outside the calibration period. To determine the future risk of low-streamflow conditions in the Red River of the North Basin, a block-bootstrap method was used to generate multiple possible future climates. These stochastically generated weather time series were then input to a water-balance model to simulate a distribution of possible streamflows. Three sets of experiments were performed, with each experiment containing a set of scenarios. The first set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were designed to investigate how changes in reservoir management would affect the distribution of low streamflow. Relative to scenario 1 (present-day [2023] reservoir operation), scenario 2 (no reservoir operation) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves downward, reducing the annual minimum monthly streamflow for the Emerson subbasin. Subbasins were defined by the contributing area upstream from a selected streamgage station. Relative to scenario 1, scenario 3 (regulated streamflow with an increased reservoir capacity of 10 percent) shifted the low-streamflow frequency curves upward for the Emerson subbasin. The magnitude of this upward shift, caused by increased reservoir capacity, was lower than the magnitude of the shift caused by the absence of the reservoirs, which indicates that the streamflow was most affected when the reservoirs were first constructed. The second set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model included two scenarios that were performed to better understand how the Red River of the North Basin responds to long periods of low or high precipitation. The results indicate that the model consistently overestimated streamflow, but the relative change between a wet and dry climate state of simulated streamflow distribution reasonably matched the relative change of historical streamflow. Across the subbasins, the model was most accurate for low-streamflow conditions associated with nonexceedance probabilities between 20 and 40 percent. The third set of experiments from the stochastic streamflow model were done to investigate low-streamflow response across the basin to several drought events. Low-end streamflow was reduced when the basin was exposed to a drought, and the magnitude of the reduction increased with longer or more intense droughts. Compared to the low-intensity drought scenarios, the range of percent reductions (as indicated by the interquartile range) was larger for the high-intensity drought scenarios for all subbasins, and the subbasins of Grand Forks and Emerson had a smaller range of reductions compared to the other three subbasins. The larger drainage area—combined with the large contribution of the Red Lake River and several other Minnesota tributaries that generally experience wetter climate conditions—upstream from the Emerson and Grand Forks subbasins may contribute to the smaller range in reductions under the high intensity scenarios. Comparison of the percent reduction in low-end streamflow among subbasins also indicated that the effects of drought duration and intensity could be cumulative. Combining factors of time and intensity produced a larger reduction in streamflow than when each effect was isolated. The array of drought scenarios can be used to determine how a subbasin would respond to multiple possible future conditions. Based on climate predictions, the drought scenario that best matches a future anticipated drought scenario can be used to estimate a low streamflow response for a given subbasin.

Manitoba, Minnesota, North Dakota↗

Decision-making for managing harmful algal blooms

Cyanobacteria are a global water-quality concern because these organisms can develop into harmful blooms that affect ecologic, economic, and public health. U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked with the New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to develop a structured decision-making template for managing cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms. This approach can help natural resource managers make decisions to manage water bodies threatened by harmful algal blooms.

New York↗

National Water-Quality Assessment Program: the Northern New England Basins study unit

In 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Department of the Interior, began a full-scale National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. The objectives of the NAWQA program are to describe the present and future water quality of large, representative parts of the United States's surface- and ground-water resources and to identify the primary natural and man-made factors that affect the quality of these resources. The final product of the program will be information that may be used by water-resource policy makers and managers at national, State, and local levels. The NAWQA program encompasses 60 study units. These units are delineated by hydrologic systems that include parts of most of the Nation's major river basins and aquifer systems. Study units range in size from 1,000 mi 2 (square miles) to more than 60,000 mi 2 and represent 60 to 70 percent of the Nation's water use and population served by public water supplies. The first group of 20 study-unit investigations began in 1991. A second group of 20 study-unit investigations began in 1994, which includes the Northern New England Basins study unit.

Maine;Massachusetts;New Hampshire↗

Aquatics Systems Branch: transdisciplinary research to address water-related environmental problems

The Aquatic Systems Branch at the Fort Collins Science Center is a group of scientists dedicated to advancing interdisciplinary science and providing science support to solve water-related environmental issues. Natural resource managers have an increasing need for scientific information and stakeholders face enormous challenges of increasing and competing demands for water. Our scientists are leaders in ecological flows, riparian ecology, hydroscape ecology, ecosystem management, and contaminant biology. The Aquatic Systems Branch employs and develops state-of-the-science approaches in field investigations, laboratory experiments, remote sensing, simulation and predictive modeling, and decision support tools. We use the aquatic experimental laboratory, the greenhouse, the botanical garden and other advanced facilities to conduct unique research. Our scientists pursue research on the ground, in the rivers, and in the skies, generating and testing hypotheses and collecting quantitative information to support planning and design in natural resource management and aquatic restoration.

Fact Sheet↗

Managing water in the West: developing new tools for a critical resource

Rapid population growth in the Western United States over the last century has placed increasing strains on our water supplies and aquatic ecosystems. Historically, water rights have been used to determine the allocation of water in the West, but rules and regulations related to endangered species now often drive how water is released from reservoirs in large rivers such as the lower Colorado and the Columbia. In numerous smaller watersheds, communities are trying to balance the water necessary for human use, irrigation, and the conservation of ecosystems. To assist managers in the face of increasing complexity and uncertainty in water management decision-making, the Western Fisheries Research Center (WFRC) is involved in developing a new generation of integrative tools. Below are some examples of the types of tools that already exist within the WFRC.

Fact Sheet↗

U.S. Geological Survey Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life. In support of this mission, the USGS Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center works in cooperation with many entities to provide reliable, impartial scientific information to resource managers, planners, and the public.

Virginia, West Virginia↗

Hydrogeologic Framework and Ground-Water Budget of the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie Aquifer, Spokane County, Washington, and Bonner and Kootenai Counties, Idaho

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources and Washington State Department of Ecology, investigated the hydrogeologic framework and ground-water budget of the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie (SVRP) aquifer located in northern Idaho and northeastern Washington. Descriptions of the hydrogeologic framework, water-budget components, and further data needs are provided. The SVRP aquifer, which covers about 370 square miles including the Rathdrum Prairie, Idaho, and the Spokane Valley and Hillyard Trough, Washington, is the sole source of drinking water for more than 500,000 residents. Continued growth, water-management issues, and potential effects on water availability and water quality in the aquifer and in the Spokane and Little Spokane Rivers have illustrated the need to better understand and manage the region's water resources. The SVRP aquifer consists mostly of gravels, cobbles, and boulders - deposited during a series of outburst floods resulting from repeated collapse of the ice dam that impounded ancient Glacial Lake Missoula. In most places, the SVRP aquifer is bounded by bedrock of pre-Tertiary granite or metasedimentary rocks, or Miocene basalt and associated sedimentary deposits. Discontinuous fine-grained layers are scattered throughout the SVRP aquifer at considerably different altitudes and with considerably different thicknesses. In the Hillyard Trough and the Little Spokane River Arm of the aquifer, a massive fine-grained layer with a top altitude ranging from about 1,500 to 1,700 feet and thickness ranging from about 100 to 200 feet separates the aquifer into upper and lower units. Most of the Spokane Valley part of the aquifer is devoid of fine-grained layers except near the margins of the valley and near the mouths of lakes. In the Rathdrum Prairie, multiple fine-grained layers are scattered throughout the aquifer with top altitudes ranging from about 1,700 to 2,400 feet with thicknesses ranging from 1 to more than 135 feet. The altitude of the base of the aquifer ranges from less than 1,800 feet near Lake Pend Oreille to less than 1,200 feet near the aquifer's outlet near Long Lake. The thickness of the aquifer is more than 800 feet in the northwestern part of the northern Rathdrum Prairie, through the West Channel area, and through the west-central part of the Rathdrum Prairie. In Washington, the areas of greatest thickness, more than 600 feet, are mapped in the central parts of the Spokane Valley, Spokane, and the Hillyard Trough. Recharge or inflow to the SVRP aquifer occurs from six main sources: the Spokane River, lakes, infiltration from precipitation over the aquifer, tributaries, infiltration from landscape irrigation and septic systems, and subsurface inflow. Discharge or outflow from the SVRP aquifer occurs from five main sources: the Spokane River, the Little Spokane River, pumpage, subsurface discharge to Long Lake, and infiltration of ground water to sewers. Total estimated mean annual inflow to and outflow from the SVRP aquifer is about 1,470 cubic feet per second. Several data needs were identified during this investigation that would improve the definition of the hydrogeologic framework and ground-water budget components for the SVRP aquifer study area. Deep drilling along the axis of the aquifer could determine the depth to the bottom of the aquifer where data are currently unavailable as well as identify the presence of fine-grained layers and their thickness. A more detailed analysis of the geologic and hydrologic setting near the southern ends of Spirit and Hoodoo Valleys could help determine the location of the ground-water divide between the two valleys and the Rathdrum Prairie. Better estimates of seepage into the aquifer from Coeur d'Alene Lake and Lake Pend Oreille and underflow from the aquifer to Long Lake would strengthen the recharge and discharge estimates of the aquifer. A hydrochemical study incorporating analyses of envi

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Assessment of aquifer properties, evapotranspiration, and the effects of ditching in the Stoney Brook watershed, Fond du Lac Reservation, Minnesota, 2006-9

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa, assessed hydraulic properties of geologic material, recharge, and evapotranspiration, and the effects of ditching on the groundwater resources in the Stoney Brook watershed in the Fond du Lac Reservation. Geologic, groundwater, and surface-water data were collected during 2006–9 to estimate hydrologic properties in the watershed. Streamflow and groundwater levels in the shallow glacial deposits in the Stoney Brook watershed were analyzed to estimate groundwater-flow directions, groundwater recharge, and evapotranspiration within the watershed and to assess the effect of ditches on surrounding groundwater resources. Groundwater, streamflow, and precipitation data collected during the study (2006–9) can be used to update the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resource Conservation Service and Fond du Lac Resource Management Division surface-water models, which are used to evaluate the effect of proposed adjustments to the ditching system on streamflow on wild rice production and aquatic habitats. Specific yields calculated from the well water levels ranged from 0.11 to 0.40, and hydraulic conductivities determined from water levels measured during well slug tests ranged from 1 to 7 feet per day. The values for specific yields were similar to values obtained in other studies done in glacial materials of similar composition in Minnesota. The higher hydraulic conductivity estimate (7 feet per day) was similar to lower hydraulic conductivities estimated in another hydrologic study conducted in Carlton County, Minnesota. The installation of drainage ditches in the Stoney Brook watershed has reduced water levels in lakes connected to the ditch system, and has locally reduced groundwater levels in shallow groundwater adjacent to the ditches and lakes. Differences in near-ditch groundwater hydrographs relative to far-ditch groundwater hydrographs indicate that the effect of the ditches on groundwater is only localized to near-ditch areas. These hydrograph differences resulted in large differences between recharge estimated at wells near and far from ditches. In this study, recharge estimated at wells within 50 feet of a ditch was influenced by ditch-water levels. Annual groundwater recharge estimates from water levels and streamflows during 2006–9 ranged from 0.36 to 34.8 inches, and varied with climate, geology, and well location relative to ditches. The higher recharge estimates were determined from analysis of groundwater levels in wells near the ditches because the shallow groundwater in these wells received both infiltration from ditches and areal groundwater recharge from precipitation. The water-table fluctuation method using a manual groundwater recession approach for wells far from ditches provided the best estimates of areal groundwater recharge to the shallow glacial aquifer because water levels in these wells were not affected by water infiltrating from ditches (bank storage). For wells more than 400 feet from ditches, mean annual areal groundwater recharge estimates using the manual groundwater recession approach for wells screened mostly in outwash sands during 2007, 2008, and 2009 ranged from 4.47 to 18.6 inches (wells 5, 7, 13, 14 and 15), and ranged from 0.43 to 2.85 inches for wells screened mostly in clayey sand or sandy clay (wells 9 and 16). Recharge estimates at wells far from ditches were similar to basinwide recharge estimates from streamflow. Daily fluctuations in water levels in two wells indicated that the evapotranspiration extinction depth in the Stoney Brook watershed is approximately 4.6 to 6 feet below the land surface. A polynomial regression fit of the daily evapotranspiration rates during 2006–9 for well 1 produced a total evapotranspiration estimate of 16.1 inches from June 26 to October 6 for every year. Evapotranspiration estimated from daily water-level fluctuations in wells near ditches is relatively high. The ditch-water surface allowed for relatively high evaporation compared to the land surface, which, with a good hydraulic connection to surrounding groundwater, resulted in relatively high fluctuations in daily groundwater levels near ditches, resulting in high evapotranspiration estimates.

Minnesota↗

Use of models to map potential capture of surface water

The effects of ground-water withdrawals on surface-water resources and riparian vegetation have become important considerations in water-availability studies. Ground water withdrawn by a well initially comes from storage around the well, but with time can eventually increase inflow to the aquifer and (or) decrease natural outflow from the aquifer. This increased inflow and decreased outflow is referred to as “capture.” For a given time, capture can be expressed as a fraction of withdrawal rate that is accounted for as increased rates of inflow and decreased rates of outflow. The time frames over which capture might occur at different locations commonly are not well understood by resource managers. A ground-water model, however, can be used to map potential capture for areas and times of interest. The maps can help managers visualize the possible timing of capture over large regions. The first step in the procedure to map potential capture is to run a ground-water model in steady-state mode without withdrawals to establish baseline total flow rates at all sources and sinks. The next step is to select a time frame and appropriate withdrawal rate for computing capture. For regional aquifers, time frames of decades to centuries may be appropriate. The model is then run repeatedly in transient mode, each run with one well in a different model cell in an area of interest. Differences in inflow and outflow rates from the baseline conditions for each model run are computed and saved. The differences in individual components are summed and divided by the withdrawal rate to obtain a single capture fraction for each cell. Values are contoured to depict capture fractions for the time of interest. Considerations in carrying out the analysis include use of realistic physical boundaries in the model, understanding the degree of linearity of the model, selection of an appropriate time frame and withdrawal rate, and minimizing error in the global mass balance of the model.

Conference Paper↗

Ground-water quality in Bannock, Bear Lake, Caribou, and part of Power counties, southeastern Idaho

This report provides information about the current quality of ground waters in southeastern Idaho and discusses the natural and manmade environmental controls on that quality. This information will be useful in planning and monitoring the development and use of the ground-water resources of southeastern Idaho. The southeastern corner of Idaho, as described in this report, encompasses an area of about 4,000 mil in Bannock, Bear Lake, Caribou, and part of Power Counties. The popu- lation of the area in 1975, based on best estimates by the Idaho Division of Budget, Policy Planning, and Coordination (1976) was 75,200. About 80 percent of the population is in and near the city of Pocatello, which is the second largest population center in the State. Pocatello's economy depends largely on manufacturing and industrial processing, which includes chemicalfertilizer plants. The econ- omy in the rural areas depends largely on agriculture--both dry and irrigated farming are practiced. Mining is important and expected to dominate the economy in the eastcentral part of the area in the future. Natural resources include phosphate ore, which makes up about 35 percent of the U.S. reserves (U.S. Department of Interior and U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1977); ground water, which mostly underlies the several intermontane valleys that dissect the area; and hot springs, which indicate that geothermal energy sources may underlie part of the area. Also, current (1978) speculation is that petroleum reserves may be present in the vicinity of Bear Lake. Development of more sprink- ler-irrigated lands, increases in population, and growth of phosphate mining are expected to place stress on the ground-water resources, both in quality and quantity. The purpose of this report is to present the results of a study whose primary objectives were (1) to provide current waterquality data representative of the water in several different aquifers (water- bearing formations) in the study area, and (2) to relate these data to natural and manmade environmental controls. The wells sampled during this study establish a quasi-network, which could be resampled in the future to document and analyze changes (if any) in ground-water quality. Based on this information, planners and water managers could better understand the causeand-effect relations controlling water quality and could better manage land and water-resource development. The report is designed for ease of reading and presentation. It uses maps, tables, and abbreviated text to describe geology, hydrology, and ground-water quality and how they are interrelated. Some practical ways for improving water quality are discussed for the benefit of individual water users. The field data collected in making the study are contained in the Data Section of this report. The authors gratefully acknowledge the many individual well owners, municipal officials, and private industries that provided well information and allowed access to their properties and collection of water samples. Without their help, this work could not have been done. Water samples were collected at 103 well sites. Waterlevel measurements were made at 98 of these sites during July, August, and September of 1976. This study was made by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources. A similar study is being made (1978) in north Idaho. Other studies are planned, specifically to obtain ground-water-quality data in areas where land and water-resource development is expected or accelerating.

Idaho↗

Compilation of geologic, hydrologic, and ground-water flow modeling information for the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie aquifer, Spokane County, Washington, and Bonner and Kootenai Counties, Idaho

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources and Washington Department of Ecology compiled and described geologic, hydrologic, and ground-water flow modeling information about the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie (SVRP) aquifer in northern Idaho and northeastern Washington. Descriptions of the hydrogeologic framework, water-budget components, ground- and surface-water interactions, computer flow models, and further data needs are provided. The SVRP aquifer, which covers about 370 square miles including the Rathdrum Prairie, Idaho and the Spokane valley and Hillyard Trough, Washington, was designated a Sole Source Aquifer by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1978. Continued growth, water management issues, and potential effects on water availability and water quality in the aquifer and in the Spokane and Little Spokane Rivers have illustrated the need to better understand and manage the region's water resources. The SVRP aquifer is composed of sand, gravel, cobbles, and boulders primarily deposited by a series of catastrophic glacial outburst floods from ancient Glacial Lake Missoula. The material deposited in this high-energy environment is coarser-grained than is typical for most basin-fill deposits, resulting in an unusually productive aquifer with well yields as high as 40,000 gallons per minute. In most places, the aquifer is bounded laterally by bedrock composed of granite, metasedimentary rocks, or basalt. The lower boundary of the aquifer is largely unknown except along the margins or in shallower parts of the aquifer where wells have penetrated its entire thickness and reached bedrock or silt and clay deposits. Based on surface geophysics, the thickness of the aquifer is about 500 ft near the Washington-Idaho state line, but more than 600 feet within the Rathdrum Prairie and more than 700 feet in the Hillyard trough based on drilling records. Depth to water in the aquifer is greatest in the northern Rathdrum Prairie (about 500 feet) and least near the city of Spokane along the Spokane River (less than about 50 feet). Ground-water flow is south from near the southern end of Lake Pend Oreille and Hoodoo Valley, through the Rathdrum Prairie, then west toward Spokane. In Spokane, the aquifer splits and water moves north through the Hillyard Trough as well as west through the Trinity Trough. From the Trinity Trough water flows north along the western arm of the aquifer. The aquifer's discharge area is along the Little Spokane River and near Long Lake, Washington. A compilation of estimates of water-budget components, including recharge (precipitation, irrigation, canal leakage, septic tank effluent, inflow from tributary basins, and flow from the Spokane River) and discharge (withdrawals from wells, flow to the Spokane and Little Spokane Rivers, evapotranspiration, and underflow to Long Lake) illustrates that these estimated values should be compared with caution due to several variables including the area and time period of interest as well as methods employed in making the estimates. Numerous studies have documented the dynamic ground-water and surface-water interaction between the SVRP aquifer and the Spokane and Little Spokane Rivers. Gains and losses vary throughout the year, as well as the locations of gains and losses. September 2004 streamflow measurements indicated that the upper reach of the Spokane River between Post Falls and downstream at Flora Road lost 321 cubic feet per second. A gain of 736 cubic feet per second was measured between the Flora Road site and downstream at Green Street Bridge. A loss of 124 cubic feet per second was measured for the reach between the Green Street Bridge and the Spokane River at Spokane gaging station. The river gained about 87 cubic feet per second between the Spokane River at Spokane gaging station and the TJ Meenach Bridge. Overall, the Spokane River gained about 284 cubic feet per second between the Post Falls,

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics at gaged and ungaged stream sites in Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, Office of Water Resources, computed selected at-site streamflow statistics at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in and near Massachusetts and developed regional regression equations for estimating selected streamflows at ungaged stream sites in Massachusetts. Two sets of regional regression equations were developed: (1) the “mainland” equations, for mainland Massachusetts excluding the area covered by the second set, and (2) the “southeastern” equations, for the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer area in southeastern Massachusetts and for Cape Cod. The regression equations and at-site statistics may be used by Federal, State, and local water managers in addressing water-resources issues relevant in Massachusetts. Regional regression analyses for the mainland equations were developed to estimate the following 27 streamflow statistics: 99-, 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, and 50-percent flow durations; monthly June, July, August, and September 90- and 50-percent flow durations; February, June, and August median of the monthly means; harmonic mean; and medians of the following annual low-flow frequency statistics: 7-day; 7-day, 2-year; 7-day, 10-year; 30-day, 2-year; and 30-day, 10-year. The analyses used 81 streamgages with minimal to no regulations in and near Massachusetts. The regression analyses determined that four basin characteristics—drainage area, combined hydrologic soils A and B, streamflow variability index, and annual mean temperature—were the only significant explanatory variables for the different mainland equations. Regional regression equations were developed for the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer area in southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod, because surface-water drainage areas and groundwater contributing areas do not always coincide in this area of the State. The regression analyses to estimate 10 flow durations from the 99th to 50th percentiles used 18 streamflow sites with some occasional minor regulations—because there are few unregulated streams in southeastern Massachusetts. The analyses determined that groundwater contributing area and storage (combined water bodies and wetlands) were the only significant explanatory variables in the southeastern equations.

Massachusetts↗

Recreational impacts to wildlife: Managing visitors and resources to protect wildlife

Publication Abstract: Visitor use management is essential for maximizing benefits for visitors while achieving and maintaining desired resource conditions and visitor experiences on federally managed lands and waters. Visitor capacity, a component of visitor use management, is defined as the maximum amounts and types of visitor use that an area can accommodate while achieving and maintaining the desired resource conditions and visitor experiences that are consistent with the purposes for which the area was established. This visitor capacity guidebook, in combination with the “Visitor Use Management Framework” (the framework), provides managers with processes to collaboratively develop long-term strategies to manage the amounts and types of visitor use to protect resources, improve access, connect visitors to key experiences, and achieve desired conditions. The purpose of this guidebook is to provide cohesive guidance on identifying and implementing visitor capacity on federally managed lands and waters. Similar to the framework, the sliding scale of analysis is discussed throughout this guidebook to ensure the investment of time, money, and other resources for a project is commensurate with the complexity of the project and the consequences of the decision. Overall, this guidebook is meant to expand on the framework and guide a professional and consistent approach to identifying and implementing visitor capacity. Paper Abstract: Most protected natural areas, including parks, forests, and wildlife refuges, are managed under a dual mandate to preserve predominantly natural settings and processes while also accommodating recreational visitation. Visitor activities can have deleterious impacts to protected area vegetation, soil, water, wildlife, and cultural resources. The term impact denotes undesirable visitor-related effects to natural resources and/or wildlife. This paper reviews the management of recreation impacts to wildlife, including discussions of influential factors, impact indicators, and the range of management responses. This information is provided to assist recreation and land managers in avoiding or minimizing visitor impact to wildlife, particularly related to decision-making within the new Visitor Use Management (VUM) framework. Such decision-making requires a thorough understanding of the different types of wildlife impact and the use-related, environmental, and managerial factors that influence them.

Report↗

Use of the gamma distribution to represent monthly rainfall in Africa for drought monitoring applications

Evaluating a range of scenarios that accurately reflect precipitation variability is critical for water resource applications. Inputs to these applications can be provided using location- and interval-specific probability distributions. These distributions make it possible to estimate the likelihood of rainfall being within a specified range. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of fitting cell-by-cell probability distributions to grids of monthly interpolated, continent-wide data. Future work will then detail applications of these grids to improved satellite-remote sensing of drought and interpretations of probabilistic climate outlook forum forecasts. The gamma distribution is well suited to these applications because it is fairly familiar to African scientists, and capable of representing a variety of distribution shapes. This study tests the goodness-of-fit using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, and compares these results against another distribution commonly used in rainfall events, the Weibull. The gamma distribution is suitable for roughly 98% of the locations over all months. The techniques and results presented in this study provide a foundation for use of the gamma distribution to generate drivers for various rain-related models. These models are used as decision support tools for the management of water and agricultural resources as well as food reserves by providing decision makers with ways to evaluate the likelihood of various rainfall accumulations and assess different scenarios in Africa.

International Journal of Climatology↗

Plans of the U.S.Geological Survey, water resources division for research, investigations, and data collection in ground water

The Geological Survey has been the foremost agency in the investigation of ground ‐ water resources in the United States beginning about 1910. Most of the basic principles of modern ground ‐ water hydrology were developed in the Survey ' s program of cooperative investigations . Use of ground water in the United States in 1960 was about 17½ percent of all water uses, excluding water power. The use will probably increase, though at a decreasing rate. Although amount of use may level off, the need to know about it will not. While coordinating its activities with those of the Office of Water Data Coordination and the Office of Water Resources Research , the Survey expects to step up its work in all three areas of data collection , investigations , and research . However, there will be changes of emphasis. Collection of raw data will tend to stress key observation points, and more and more observation of temperature and quality, including contaminants. Investigations will be aimed at upgrading reconnaissance coverage to general coverage for most of the Nation. The areal basis will be stream drainage basins and special hydrologic terranes, rather than political units. There will be an increase in the preparation of analog models for representative ground ‐ water systems. In research , the problem‐oriented basis will continue. Stress will be on basic principles that pertain to artificial recharge, and the natural recharge and discharge of ground ‐ water reservoirs; and also on the application of geologic principles on a regional scale. These are critical elements in the management of surface‐ water and ground ‐ water resources conjunctively in river basins.

Groundwater↗

Land-use change and future water demand in California’s central coast

Understanding future land-use related water demand is important for planners and resource managers in identifying potential shortages and crafting mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for regions dependent on limited local groundwater supplies. For the groundwater dependent Central Coast of California, we developed two scenarios of future land use and water demand based on sampling from a historical land change record: a business-as-usual scenario (BAU; 1992–2016) and a recent-modern scenario (RM; 2002–2016). We modeled the scenarios in the stochastic, empirically based, spatially explicit LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model at a high resolution (270-m) for the years 2001–2100 across 10 Monte Carlo simulations, applying current land zoning restrictions. Under the BAU scenario, regional water demand increased by an estimated ~222.7 Mm 3 by 2100, driven by the continuation of perennial cropland expansion as well as higher than modern urbanization rates. Since 2000, mandates have been in place restricting new development unless adequate water resources could be identified. Despite these restrictions, water demand dramatically increased in the RM scenario by 310.6 Mm 3 by century’s end, driven by the projected continuation of dramatic orchard and vineyard expansion trends. Overall, increased perennial cropland leads to a near doubling to tripling perennial water demand by 2100. Our scenario projections can provide water managers and policy makers with information on diverging land use and water use futures based on observed land change and water use trends, helping to better inform land and resource management decisions.

California↗

Dissolved solids, hardness, and orthophosphate of surface-water runoff in the Suwannee River Water Management District, Florida

This atlas consists of three maps that show the general distri bution of dissolved solids, hardness, and orthophosphate in the streams and lakes within the Suwannee River Water Management District. The atlas was prepared in cooperation with the Water Management District to provide pertinent water-quality information relating to the objectives of the Florida State Water Resources Act of 1972. Under the provisions of this act, the Water Management District is required to establish a regional water-use plan, issue permits for water-use and water-resources related construction, and authorize the export of water. The data presented on these maps will be useful to those concerned with water management and use, in assessing regional water quality, and in estab lishing a base for comparison with future quality data. The ranges of concentration shown on the maps represent maximum concentrations in surface water during the sampling period, January 1965- September 1970. Concentrations are plotted at the sampling sites and are the major criteria for determining the extent of concentration ranges. In some cases the drainage basin boundaries are used in defining concentration range boundaries because the quantity and quality of surface runoff is characteristic of the environment of the basin and may be entirely different from the runoff of adjacent basins. Within drainage basins, individual streams and local drainage divides define concentration boundaries. Some areas, although adjacent to each other in the same basin, have entirely different concentration ranges. For example, an area containing dissolved-solids concentrations in the 0-25 mg/1 (milligrams per litre) range may be adjacent to an area in which concentrations exceed 100 mg/1, as in the southeast part of Jefferson County. Concentration boundaries in these areas were selected by extending each range about halfway between the two sampling sites, as opposed to grading an intermediate range between them without supporting data. As the data are sparse in many areas, regional concentration patterns are generalized and local variations may be expected to exist.

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High-resolution remote sensing of water quality in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary

The San Francisco Bay–Delta Estuary watershed is a major source of freshwater for California and a profoundly human-impacted environment. The water quality monitoring that is critical to the management of this important water resource and ecosystem relies primarily on a system of fixed water-quality monitoring stations, but the limited spatial coverage often hinders understanding. Here, we show how the latest technology in visible/near-infrared imaging spectroscopy can facilitate water quality monitoring in this highly dynamic and heterogeneous system by enabling simultaneous depictions of several water quality indicators at very high spatial resolution. The airborne portable remote imaging spectrometer (PRISM) was used to derive high-spatial-resolution (2.6 × 2.6 m) distributions of turbidity, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chlorophyll-a concentrations in a wetland-influenced region of this estuary. A filter-passing methylmercury vs DOC relationship was also developed using in situ samples and enabled the high-spatial-resolution depiction of surface methylmercury concentrations in this area. The results illustrate how high-resolution imaging spectroscopy can inform management and policy development in important inland and estuarine water bodies by facilitating the detection of point- and nonpoint-source pollution, and by providing data to help assess the complex impacts of wetland restoration and climate change on water quality and ecosystem productivity.

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