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Comment on “Which earthquake accounts matter” by Susan E. Hough and Stacey S. Martin

In their analysis of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) data Hough and Martin (2021) claim, among other assertions, that the following: Socioeconomic and geopolitical factors can introduce biases in the USGS’ characterization of earthquakes and their effects, especially if online data collection systems are not designed to be broadly accessible; These biases can, in turn, potentially cascade in myriad ways, potentially shaping our understanding of an earthquake’s impact and the characterization of seismic hazard; and Caution should be urged when relying on data from the DYFI system to characterize the distribution of shaking from large earthquakes in India and other parts of the world (outside of the United States). Claims of inequity in access, systematic data biases, or urging caution in the usage of data from critical governmental earthquake information systems should not be made, nor taken, lightly. Several assertions made by Hough and Martin (hereafter, H&M) about the nature of DYFI contributors—and the data they provide—leave a false narrative concerning DYFI system accessibility and quality that H&M have not adequately substantiated. I describe several shortcomings of H&M’s demographic statistics and methodology, focusing on four main concerns. First, DYFI has revolutionized and greatly facilitated access to reporting intensities, in contrast to H&M claims to the contrary. Second, because DYFI does not directly collect demographic data other than the observer’s location, any demographic analyses require extraordinary inferences, well outside the normal bounds of sociodemographic analyses. Third, independent of accessibility and the geographic distribution of contributions from the public, the macroseismic data collected are nonetheless representative of the shaking and impact at each location, of quality, rapid, and thus extremely useful. Lastly, H&M fail to cite critical and pertinent prior, highly relevant scholarly studies, and as such, they misrepresent the novelty of their own work as well as miss key practical matters detailed in those prior studies. Prior to rebutting what H&M claim DYFI does not do, I will remind the reader the ways in which DYFI excels.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Submarine glacial landforms on the Bay of Fundy–northern Gulf of Maine continental shelf

The Bay of Fundy–northern Gulf of Maine region surrounds the southern part of Nova Scotia, encompassing, from west to east, the Bay of Fundy, Grand Manan Basin, German Bank, Browns Bank, Northeast Channel and northeastern Georges Bank (Fig. 1a, b). During the last glacial maximum ( c. 24–20 14 C ka BP), the SE margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) occupied the study area, the rest of the Gulf of Maine and the continental Scotian Shelf off Atlantic Canada (see Dyke et al. 2002 , fig. 1; Shaw et al. 2006 , fig. 8; Hundert & Piper 2008 , fig. 16). Early mapping of the glaciated region on the Scotian Shelf using side-scan sonar imagery and seismic-reflection profiles revealed topographic features interpreted to be recessional moraines indicative of retreat of the LIS ( King et al. 1972 ; King 1996 ). Subsequently, multibeam sonar seafloor mapping of local-scale glacial landforms on the inner Scotian Shelf off Halifax, Nova Scotia (Fig. 1b) provided further information on the dynamics of the advance and retreat of the ice sheet ( Loncarevic et al. 1994 ). Interpretation of seismic-reflection profiles across Georges Bank revealed that the surficial sediment is a veneer of glacial debris transported to Georges Bank by the LIS during the late Pleistocene from continental areas to the north ( Shepard et al. 1934 ; Knott & Hoskins 1968 ; Schlee 1973 ; Twichell et al. 1987 ; Fader et al. 1988 ). Recent high-resolution multibeam sonar surveys of German Bank and the Bay of Fundy mapped a complex of ice-advance and ice-retreat features attributed to the activity of the LIS ( Todd et al. 2007 ; Todd & Shaw 2012 ).

Geological Society, London, Memoirs↗

Water quality and algal community dynamics of three deepwater lakes in Minnesota utilizing CE-QUAL-W2 models

Water quality, habitat, and fish in Minnesota lakes will potentially be facing substantial levels of stress in the coming decades primarily because of two stressors: (1) land-use change (urban and agricultural) and (2) climate change. Several regional and statewide lake modeling studies have identified the potential linkages between land-use and climate change on reductions in the volume of suitable lake habitat for coldwater fish populations. In recent years, water-resource scientists have been making the case for focused assessments and monitoring of sentinel systems to address how these stress agents change lakes over the long term. Currently in Minnesota, a large-scale effort called “Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment” is underway that includes a focus on monitoring basic watershed, water quality, habitat, and fish indicators of 24 Minnesota sentinel lakes across a gradient of ecoregions, depths, and nutrient levels. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water quality models to assess water quality and habitat dynamics of three select deepwater lakes in Minnesota. The three lakes (Lake Carlos in Douglas County, Elk Lake in Clearwater County, and Trout Lake in Cook County) were assessed under recent (2010–11) meteorological conditions. The three selected lakes contain deep, coldwater habitats that remain viable during the summer months for coldwater fish species. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics for each of the three lakes were simulated using the CE-QUAL-W2 model, which is a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model. The CE-QUAL-W2 models address the interaction between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics to predict responses in the distribution of temperature and oxygen in lakes. The CE-QUAL-W2 models for all three lakes successfully predicted water temperature, on the basis of the two metrics of absolute mean error and root mean square error, using measured inputs of water temperature and nutrients. One of the main calibration tools for CE-QUAL-W2 model development was the vertical profile temperature data, available for all three lakes. For all three lakes, the absolute mean error and root mean square error were less than 1.0 degree Celsius and 1.2 degrees Celsius, respectively, for the different depth ranges used for vertical profile comparisons. In Lake Carlos, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the epilimnion than in the hypolimnion. The reverse was true for the other two lakes, Elk Lake and Trout Lake, where the simulated results were slightly better for the hypolimnion than the epilimnion. The model also was used to approximate the location of the thermocline throughout the simulation periods, approximately April to November, in all three lake models. Deviations between the simulated and measured water temperatures in the vertical lake profile commonly were because of an offset in the timing of thermocline shifts rather than the simulated results missing thermocline shifts altogether.

Minnesota↗

Missouri StreamStats—St. Louis County and the City of St. Louis urban application

To address a major limitation of the functionality of the Missouri statewide StreamStats application in the urban areas of St. Louis County and the City of St. Louis, Missouri, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District, defined watershed boundaries and hydrography for the study area using high-resolution 3-meter digital elevation data derived from light detection and ranging sources, high-resolution 6-inch imagery, and storm sewer network geospatial data. The combined sanitary sewers, a part of the storm sewer network, were integrated into the open channel hydrography and elevation data using a new Arc Hydro stormwater tool developed to facilitate the incorporation of the combined sanitary sewer network into the StreamStats application. The combined sanitary sewer network was edited for connectivity and flow direction before integration into the Missouri-St. Louis StreamStats application. Inlet structures in the geospatial data were defined as HydroJunction features that allow for stormwater runoff to enter the combined sanitary sewer network. An Arc Hydro stormwater processing workflow and a sewershed delineation tool were developed to integrate the combined sanitary sewer network with the hydrographic dataset and digital elevation model in the study area. The StreamStats application developed for the study area provides various data exploration tools that can be used to examine the spatial data and to obtain general descriptive information and flow statistics at streamgages in the study area. Watersheds and sewersheds can be delineated and basin characteristics can be determined at any point on the open channel network or the combined sanitary sewer network in the study area. Peak-flow statistics can be computed at any point on the open channel network. A report summarizing the results is generated by the StreamStats application and can be downloaded and used in other software. The Missouri-St. Louis StreamStats application is limited to the area inside St. Louis County and the City of St. Louis and excludes locations on the main stem of the Mississippi, Missouri, and Meramec Rivers. The limitations of the Missouri-St. Louis StreamStats application include possible inaccuracies using regression equations for peak-flow statistics developed assuming natural flow conditions and topographically derived watersheds determined from a coarser resolution of data than is used in this application. Additionally, published regression equations for peak-flow statistics did not incorporate any pipe flow or sewershed delineations when they were developed, which limits the applicability of peak-flow statistics to basins based on primarily topographic delineation. Inaccuracies in resolution, completeness, location, or attribution of geospatial elevation data, hydrographic data, derived stream lines, derived watershed boundaries, and combined sanitary sewer data can limit the accuracy and functionality of the Missouri-St. Louis StreamStats application.

Missouri↗

Monitoring sediment transport pathways from an artificial nearshore berm, South Padre Island, Texas, USA, August 2018 to November 2019: Implications for coastal management

During August 2018 – November 2019, the transport pathways of dredge material from a specially constructed nearshore feeder berm were investigated as part of a collaborative study by the City of South Padre Island, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers–Galveston District, U.S. Geological Survey, Partrac GeoMarine Inc., and Texas A&M University, into the efficacy of beneficial use dredge material (BUDM) as a method of replenishing the beach profile and shoreface at South Padre Island, Texas with sediment. Dual-signature (fluorescent and ferrimagnetic) tracer particles, designed to be hydraulically equivalent to the dredge material, were placed on the berm, and a sampling program was initiated to monitor the spatiotemporal movement of tracer particles under the influence of the prevailing hydrodynamic regime. Wave and current data were collected and were used together with available metocean data to identify the forcing mechanisms of sediment transport; improved understanding garnered from the consideration of multiple datasets can be used to inform future coastal management decisions. Tracer analysis results indicated low magnitude, shoreward transport of dredge material from the berm and along shore transport in both northerly and southerly directions. Small amounts of tracer detected in beach face samples demonstrated connectivity between the constructed feeder berm and the shoreface. However, the generally low tracer concentration within beach face samples indicated low rates of sediment transport for berm sediments, and a low magnitude sediment transport pathway from the berm directly to the beach face, with possible storage of sediment in the nearshore bar system. Given that the berm was at or beyond the closure depth and considering the relatively weak prevailing near bottom hydrodynamic conditions, the potential for sediment to be mobilized and transported during the study period was generally low. Periods of higher energy waves, driven by north-northwest winds, were identified as a key driver of sediment transport but due to the infrequent nature of these events the sediment transport regime across the area of interest was temporally limited. Longshore movement of sediment was both north and south, mainly dependent on prevailing wind directions and resulting longshore currents. We discuss implications for coastal zone management and the use of feeder berms as an artificial beach nourishment mechanism to replenish sediments lost by coastal erosional processes. The insight into nearshore emplacement of material can be used by local governments and coastal managers to optimize the efficacy of berm emplacement and implement such schemes as a cost-effective nourishment option, or when onshore placement of material is not feasible.

Texas↗

Geomorphic responses of Duluth-area streams to the June 2012 flood, Minnesota

In 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, completed a geomorphic assessment of 51 Duluth-area stream sites in 20 basins to describe and document the stream geomorphic changes associated with the June 2012 flood. Heavy rainfall caused flood peaks with annual exceedance probabilities of less than 0.002 (flood recurrence interval of greater than 500 years) on large and small streams in and surrounding the Duluth area. A geomorphic segment-scale classification previously developed in 2003–4 by the U.S. Geological Survey for Duluth-area streams was used as a framework to characterize the observed flood-related responses along a longitudinal continuum from headwaters to rivermouths at Lake Superior related to drainage network position, slope, geologic setting, and valley type. Field assessments in 2013 followed and expanded on techniques used in 2003–4 at intensive and rapid sites. A third level of assessment was added in 2013 to increase the amount of quantitative data at a subset of 2003–4 rapid sites. Characteristics of channel morphology, channel bed substrate, exposed bars and soft sediment deposition, large wood, pools, and bank erosion were measured; and repeat photographs were taken. Additional measurements in 2013 included identification of Rosgen Level II stream types. The comparative analyses of field data collected in 2003–4 and again in 2013 indicated notable geomorphic changes, some of them expected and others not. As expected, in headwaters with gently sloping wetland segments, geomorphic changes were negligible (little measured or observed change). Downstream, middle main stems generally had bank and bluff erosion and bar formation as expected. Steep bedrock sites along middle and lower main stems had localized bank and bluff erosion in short sections with intermittent bedrock. Lower main stem and alluvial sites had bank erosion, widening, gravel bar deposition, and aggradation. Bar formation and accumulation of gravel was more widespread than expected among all main stems, especially for sites upstream and downstream from channel constrictions from road crossings, or even steep sites with localized, more gently sloping sections. Decreases in large wood and pools also were observed throughout the longitudinal continuum of main-stem sites, with immediate implications for fish and benthic invertebrate aquatic habitat. Whether or not the geomorphic conditions will return to their preflood condition depends on the location along the longitudinal continuum. The amount of large wood and pools may return after more moderate floods, whereas bars with coarse material may remain in place, locally altering flow direction and causing continued bank erosion. Results from this study can be used by local managers in postflood reconstruction efforts and provide baseline information for continued monitoring of geomorphic responses to the June 2012 flood.

Minnesota↗

Logs and Geologic Data from a Paleoseismic Investigation of the Susitna Glacier fault, Central Alaska Range, Alaska

This report contains field and laboratory data from a paleoseismic study of the Susitna Glacier fault, Alaska. The initial M 7.2 subevent of the November 3, 2002, M 7.9 Denali fault earthquake sequence produced a 48-km-long set of complex fault scarps, folds, and aligned landslides on the previously unknown, north-dipping Susitna Glacier thrust fault along the southern margin of the Alaska Range in central Alaska. Most of the 2002 folds and fault scarps are 1-3 m high, implying dip-slip thrust offsets (assuming a near-surface fault dip of approximately 20 degrees)of 3-5 m. Locally, some of the 2002 ruptures were superimposed on preexisting scarps that have as much as 5-10 m of vertical separation and are evidence of previous surface-rupturing earthquakes on the Susitna Glacier fault. In 2003-2005, we focused follow-up studies on several of the large scarps at the 'Wet fan' site in the central part of the 2002 rupture to determine the pre-2002 history of large surface-rupturing earthquakes on the fault. We chose this site for several reasons: (1) the presence of pre-2002 thrust- and normal-fault scarps on a gently sloping, post-glacial alluvial fan; (2) nearby natural exposures of underlying fan sediments revealed fine-grained fluvial silts with peat layers and volcanic ash beds useful for chronological control; and (3) a lack of permafrost to a depth of more than 1 m. Our studies included detailed mapping, fault-scarp profiling, and logging of three hand-excavated trenches. We were forced to restrict our excavations to 1- to 2-m-high splay faults and folds because the primary 2002 ruptures mostly were superimposed on such large scarps that it was impossible to hand dig through the hanging wall to expose the fault plane. Additional complications are the pervasive effects of cryogenic processes (mainly solifluction) that can mask or mimic tectonic deformation. The purpose of this report is to present photomosaics, trench logs, scarp profiles, and fault slip, radiocarbon, tephrochronologic, and unit description data obtained during this investigation. We do not attempt to use the data presented herein to construct a paleoseismic history of the Susitna Glacier fault; that history will be the subject of a future report. When completed, our results will be used to compare the Susitna Glacier fault paleoseismic record with results of similar studies on the nearby Denali fault to determine if the simultaneous rupture of these two faults during the 2002 Denali fault earthquake sequence is typical or atypical of their long-term interaction.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Regional sediment budget of the Columbia River littoral cell, USA: Analysis of bathymetric- and topographic-volume change

In this Open-File Report we present calculations of changes in bathymetric and topographic volumes for the Grays Harbor, Willapa Bay, and Columbia River entrances and the adjacent coasts of North Beach, Grayland Plains, Long Beach, and Clatsop Plains for four intervals: pre-jetty - 1920s (Interval 1), 1920s - 1950s (Interval 2), 1950s - 1990s (Interval 3), and 1920s 1990s (Interval 4). This analysis is part of the Southwest Washington Coastal Erosion Study (SWCES), the goals of which are to understand and predict the morphologic behavior of the Columbia River littoral cell on a management scale of tens of kilometers and decades. We obtain topographic Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data from a joint project by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA), and the Washington State Department of Ecology (DOE) and bathymetric data from the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey (USC&GS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), USGS, and the DOE. Shoreline data are digitized from T-Sheets and aerial photographs from the USC&GS and National Ocean Service (NOS). Instead of uncritically adjusting each survey to NAVD88, a common vertical land-based datum, we adjust some surveys to produce optimal results according to the following criteria. First, we minimize offsets in overlapping surveys within the same era, and second, we minimize bathymetric changes (relative to the 1990s) in deep water, where we assume minimal change has taken place. We grid bathymetric and topographic datasets using kriging and triangulation algorithms, calculate bathymetric-change surfaces for each interval, and calculate volume changes within polygons that are overlaid on the bathymetric-change surfaces. We find similar morphologic changes near the entrances to Grays Harbor and the Columbia River following jetty construction between 1898 and 1916 at the Grays Harbor entrance and between 1885 and 1913 at the Columbia River entrance. The inlets and inner deltas eroded and the outer deltas moved offshore and accreted. The adjacent coasts experienced accretion over alongshore distances of tens of kilometers. North of the Grays Harbor entrance along North Beach and north of the Columbia River entrance along Long Beach the shoreface and the beach-dune complex mainly prograded, whereas south of the Grays Harbor entrance along Grayland Plains and south of the Columbia River entrance along Clatsop Plains the beach-dune complex above -10 m NAVD88 prograded and the shoreface between approximately -30 m and -10 m NAVD88 eroded. In the decades following jetty construction, the rates of erosion and accretion at the entrances decreased and the centers of deposition along the adjacent coasts moved away from the entrances. The rates of change have decreased, suggesting the systems are approaching dynamic equilibrium. Exceptions to this behaviour are the accretion of the beach-dune complex of Long Beach, the erosion of Cape Shoalwater, and the northward migration of the Willapa Bay ebb-tidal delta during all intervals. The net shoreline advance of Long Beach increases from 0.28 m/yr in pre-jetty conditions to 3.78 m/yr during Interval 4. The erosion of Cape Shoalwater and the northward migration of the Willapa Bay ebb-tidal delta are related to the northern migration of the Willapa Bay North Channel. Volume changes at the Grays Harbor, Willapa Bay, and Columbia River entrances and the Columbia River estuary are balanced against losses and gains due to littoral transport and sand supply from the Columbia River. Based on these sediment balances, we infer the following pathways: sand that eroded from the inlets and inner deltas at the Grays Harbor and Columbia River entrances moved offshore and northward to accrete the outer deltas and the beaches to the north; sand from the south flank of the Grays Harbor delta and shelf along Grayland Plains moved onshore to accrete the beach dune complex of Grayland Plains and moved northward to maintain accretion of the outer delta and the beach-dune complex of North Beach; sand that eroded from the south flank of the Columbia River delta and shelf along Clatsop Plains contributed to the accretion of the beach-dune complex of Clatsop Plains and the Columbia River outer delta. The net volume change for Interval 1 and 3 at the Grays Harbor entrance and for Interval 1 at the Columbia River entrance is erosion, whereas the net change for the other intervals is accretion. For the entire CRLC, there is a net loss of 185 Mm 3 for Interval 1, a net gain of 357 Mm 3 for Interval 2, and a net gain of 187 Mm 3 for Interval 3. These imbalances can be the result of incomplete bathymetric coverage of the bays and shoreface, uncertainties in the adjustments of vertical tidal datums, inconsistencies in the bathymetric data, and uncertainties in the sediment supply of the Columbia River.

Oregon, Washington↗

Effects of May through July 2015 storm events on suspended sediment loads, sediment trapping efficiency, and storage capacity of John Redmond Reservoir, east-central Kansas

The Neosho River and its primary tributary, the Cottonwood River, are the main sources of inflow to John Redmond Reservoir in east-central Kansas. Storage loss in the reservoir resulting from sedimentation has been estimated to be 765 acre-feet per year for 1964–2014. The 1964–2014 sedimentation rate was almost 90 percent larger than the projected design sedimentation rate of 404 acre-feet per year, and resulted in a loss of about 40 percent of the original (1964) conservation (multi-purpose) pool storage capacity. To help maintain storage in the reservoir, the Kansas Water Office has implemented more than two dozen stream bank erosion control projects to reduce the annual sediment load entering the reservoir and initiated a dredging project to restore nearly 2,000 acre-feet of storage near the dam to provide additional water supply to downstream water users. Storm events during May through July 2015 caused large inflows of water and sediment into the reservoir. Initially, flood waters were held back in the reservoir in order to decrease downstream flooding in Oklahoma. Later, retained reservoir flood waters were released at high rates (up to 25,400 acre-feet per day, the maximum allowed for the reservoir) for extended periods. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Water Office, computed the suspended-sediment inflows and retention in John Redmond Reservoir during May through July 2015. Computations relied upon previously published turbidity-suspended sediment relations at water-quality monitoring sites located upstream and downstream from the reservoir. During the 3-month period, approximately 872,000 tons of sediment entered the reservoir, and 57,000 tons were released through the reservoir outlet. The average monthly trapping efficiency during this period was 93 percent, and monthly averages ranged from 83 to 97 percent. During the study period, an estimated 980 acre-feet of storage was lost, over 2.4 times the design annual sedimentation rate of the reservoir. Storm inflows during the 3-month analysis period reduced reservoir storage in the conservation pool approximately 1.6 percent. This indicates that large inflows, coupled with minimal releases, can have substantial effects on reservoir storage and lifespan.

Kansas↗

Distinguishing palagonitized from pedogenically-altered basaltic Hawaiian tephra: Mineralogical and geochemical criteria

Palagonitization is a common, but imperfectly defined process that greatly modifies the physical and chemical properties of glassy basaltic tephra deposited in subaquatic/subglacial environments on Earth and perhaps Mars. It also results in textures and mineralogies that are distinct from other forms of (mainly pedogenic) low temperature alteration. Specifically, the process of palagonitization (1) initially results in the formation of 'palaginitized glass', a quasi- or nano-crystalline, rind-like material that contains smectite, as well as lesser amounts of other clays (e.g. serpentine), and (2) eventually results in consolidation of tephra, mediated through the accretion of palagonitized glass and later- formed authigenic cements. Conversely, pedogenic weathering of glassy basaltic tephra is characterized by disaggregation of tephra, and formation of a wide range of pedogenic products, including layer silicates (although not primarily smectite), short-range-order aluminosilicates and oxyhydroxides, whose composition reflects the intensity of the weathering environment. These mineralogical and textural properties can be readily recognized through a variety of techniques including electron microscopy/microprobe analysis, reflectance spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction and soil chemistry. Analyses of samples collected from the summit regions of Kilauea and Mauna Kea volcanoes on the island of Hawaii are presented here in order to illustrate differences between palagonitization and pedogenic weathering of glassy basaltic tephra. In the young Hawaiian tephras studied, palagonitization has occurred in response to hydrothermal activity shortly after deposition. Although some, non-hydrothermally affected tephras may eventually become palagonitized, those that have been strongly desilicated by intense pedogenic weathering will probably never become palagonitized.

Geological Society Special Publication↗

Sediments, structural framework, petroleum potential, environmental conditions, and operational considerations of the United States North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf

The area designated for possible oil and gas lease sale as modified from BLM memorandum 3310 #42 (722) and referred to therein as the North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) contains about 58,300 sq km of shelf beneath water depths of less than 200 m and lies chiefly within the Georges Bank basin. The oldest sediments drilled or dredged on the bordering Continental Slope are sandstone, clay, and silt of Upper Cretaceous age. In Upper Cretaceous exposures, on Marthas Vineyard and nearby New England islands, the predominant lithology appears to be clay. About 125 km northeast of the eastern tip of Georges Bank, the Shell B-93 well penetrated clays and silts of Upper and Lower Cretaceous age above dense Jurassic carbonate rocks which overlie a basement of lower Paleozoic slate, schist, quartzite, and granite. Structurally, the Georges Bank basin is a westerly trending trough which opens to the west-southwest. Post-Paleozoic sediments are more than 8 km thick in parts of the basin. Major structural features appear to be directly related to basement structures. Local anticlines, probably caused by differential compaction over basement flexures and horst blocks or by later uplift along basement faults are reflected principally in Lower Cretaceous and older sediments, though some of these features continue upward to within 0.7 of a second (about 650 m) of the seafloor. Tertiary deposits in the Georges Bank basin are probably up to a kilometre thick and are made up of poorly consolidated sand, silt, and clay. The Cretaceous section is inferred to be up to 3.5 km thick and to be mainly clastics -- shale, siltstone, calcareous shale, changing to limestone in the lowest part of the system. Jurassic rocks in the deepest part of the basin appear to be about 3.6 to 4.0 km thick and probably consist mainly of dense carbonates. Potential source rocks in the Georges Bank basin may include organic-rich Cretaceous shale and carbonaceous Jurassic limestone. By analogy with the Scotian Shelf, Cretaceous sandstones are considered to be potential reservoir rocks. Local zones of porous dolomite are believed to be present in carbonate rocks of Jurassic age and should not be overlooked as potential reservoirs. Structural highs related to draping and differential compaction over basement blocks could be important potential petroleum traps. Additional traps may include reef structures near the shelf edge, updip pinchouts, and stratigraphic traps in both clastic and carbonate sediment. A statistical mean for the undiscovered recoverable petroleum resources is calculated to be 0.9 billion barrels of oil and 4.2 trillion cubic feet of gas. At the 5 percent probability level (1 in 20 chance) the undiscovered recoverable petroleum resources are calculated to be 2.4 billion barrels of oil and 12.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. These undiscovered recoverable petroleum resources are those quantities of oil and gas that may be reasonably expected to exist in favorable settings, but which have not yet been identified by drilling. Such estimates, therefore, carry a high degree of uncertainty. Environmental studies of Georges Bank indicated a low-moderate risk from petroleum development. However, the risk estimate is based on very limited data. Drift bottle returns used to infer oil spill trajectories show about a 2% overall recovery rate. Meteorologic data comes mainly from nearby land areas and from ships attempting to avoid storms. Seismicity on Georges Bank is low. This may reflect, in large part, the difficulty of land-based stations in recording earthquakes far from the coast. Direct data on the engineering properties of shallow buried sediment comes mainly from two Texas Tower surveys of limited areas on Georges Shoal and Nantucket Shoals made in the early 1950's. The 17 holes (most less than 30 m deep) reveal some silty layers below loose sand and much lateral variability in sediment type over short distances. The technology for exploration at the required water depths (20 m - 200 m) is available. Mobil drilling units are in great demand around the world and will have to be brought in from other areas along with skilled manpower. Our highest estimates indicate 50 platforms, 800 producing wells, 1,100 km of pipeline, and 5 onshore terminals may be needed. The time frame for production, using our high estimates (5% probability) for the undiscovered recoverable resources, could include 4-5 years for significant development, 6-7 years until production commences, and 18 years until peak production.

Open-File Report↗

Streamflow and water-quality monitoring in response to young-of-year smallmouth bass ( micropterus dolomieu ) mortality in the Susquehanna River and major tributaries, with comparisons to the Delaware and Allegheny Rivers, Pennsylvania, 2008-10

Since 2005, spring hatched young-of-year (YOY) smallmouth bass in Pennsylvania reaches of the Susquehanna River have experienced above-normal mortality when summertime streamflows are near or lower than normal. Stress factors include, but are not limited to, low dissolved oxygen and elevated water temperatures during times critical for survival and development (critical period is May 1 through July 31). At this time (2010), widespread disease and mortality are believed to be more prevalent for YOY smallmouth bass in the Susquehanna River Basin than in the Delaware or Allegheny River Basins. The U.S. Geological Survey began a study in 2008 to investigate water temperature and dissolved oxygen as possible stressors to the YOY smallmouth bass. Monitoring began in 2008 and continued in 2009 and 2010 in selected reaches. Continuous (30-minute intervals) measurements of dissolved oxygen, water temperature, pH, and specific conductance were made during all or parts of the study at stations including, but not limited to, the Delaware River at Trenton, N.J. (station C1), Susquehanna River at Clemson Island (station C4), Juniata River at Newport, Pa. (station C5), Juniata River at Howe Township Park (station C6), Susquehanna River at Harrisburg, Pa. (station C8), and Allegheny River at Acmetonia, Pa. (station C10). At stations C1, C5, and C8, streamflow data also were collected. Streamflow data were not collected at stations C4, C6, and C10; therefore, data from nearby streamgages on the Susquehanna River at Sunbury, Pa. (station N8), the Juniata River at Newport, Pa (station C5), and the Allegheny River at Natrona, Pa. (station C9), were used to represent flow conditions at these stations. Streamflow during the critical period of each year influenced dissolved-oxygen concentrations and water temperature, and was associated with the incidence of disease in YOY smallmouth bass. During the critical period of 2009, station C8 had a median daily streamflow of 26,300 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s), approximately two times higher than for the critical periods in 2008 and 2010. Diseased YOY smallmouth bass were captured at only 3 sites in 2009 but 19 sites in 2008 and 28 sites in 2010. During relatively low streamflow in the critical periods of 2008 and 2010, dissolved-oxygen concentrations also were lower (more stressful to aquatic life) than in 2009. During the critical period, median daily minimum dissolved-oxygen concentrations in main-channel habitat of the Susquehanna River at station C8 were lower in 2008 and 2010 by 1.2 milligrams per liter (mg/L) and 1.5 mg/L, respectively, in comparison to the median daily minimum concentrations in 2009. Despite the year-to-year differences in dissolved oxygen, results of a comparison of data for station C8 from each year of the study period with historical data from 1974&ndash;79 indicate daily minimum dissolved-oxygen concentrations in all 3 years of the study were significantly lower than those from the historical dataset (p-values less than 0.05). Although lower streamflows for critical periods of 2008&ndash;10 may help explain statistical differences in dissolved oxygen between the two time periods, other factors such as long-term streamwater warming trends also may play a role. Median daily minimum dissolved-oxygen concentration in the microhabitat of the Susquehanna River at Clemson Island (station C4) was 1.6 mg/L lower in 2008 than 2009. No data were collected at station C4 in 2010. For the microhabitat of the Juniata River near Howe Township Park (station C6), median daily minimum dissolved-oxygen concentrations were about 0.6 mg/L lower in 2008 than in 2010. At station C6, no data were collected in 2009. Nighttime concentrations of dissolved oxygen in microhabitats at stations C4 and C6 were at times lower than the 5.0-mg/L criterion established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for early life stages of warm-water fish. The most frequent occurrence of dissolved oxygen less than 5.0 mg/L was at station C4 (31 of 92 days in the critical period of 2008). The longest duration that dissolved oxygen was lower than 5.0 mg/L was 8.5 hours (station C4; 23:30 on June 10, 2008, to 08:00 on June 11, 2008). Median daily maximum water temperatures in the main channel of the Susquehanna River at station C8 were 4.0 degrees Celsius (&deg;C) higher in 2008 and 4.3&deg;C warmer in 2010 than in 2009 during the critical periods. At station C8, the water temperatures during the critical periods of all 3 years were significantly warmer (p-values <0.05) than during the critical periods of 1974&ndash;79. Year-to-year water-temperature differences in the main-channel habitat of the Juniata River at station C5 were slightly less than year-to-year differences in the Susquehanna River at station C8. During the critical periods, the water temperature at station C5 was 3.5&deg;C warmer in 2008 and 3.3&deg;C warmer in 2010 than in 2009. These results are consistent with warming trends documented in other streams of the northeastern United States with much more robust water-temperature datasets. For the critical period of each year, dissolved oxygen in the Susquehanna River at station C8 typically was 1.5 to 3.0 mg/L lower than in the Delaware River at station C1 and the Allegheny River at station C10. Median daily maximum water temperatures during the critical period of each year ranged from 1.6 to 2.7&deg;C warmer at station C8 than at stations C1 and C10.

Pennsylvania↗

Bedrock geologic map of the Lisbon quadrangle, and parts of the Sugar Hill and East Haverhill quadrangles, Grafton County, New Hampshire

The bedrock geologic map of the Lisbon quadrangle, and parts of the Sugar Hill and East Haverhill quadrangles, Grafton County, New Hampshire, covers an area of approximately 73 square miles (189 square kilometers) in west-central New Hampshire. This map was created as part of a larger effort to produce a new bedrock geologic map of Vermont through the collection of field data at a scale of 1:24,000. A large part of the map area consists of the Bronson Hill anticlinorium, a post-Early Devonian structure that is cored by metamorphosed Cambrian to Devonian sedimentary, volcanic, and plutonic rocks. The Bronson Hill anticlinorium is the apex of the Middle Ordovician to earliest-Silurian Bronson Hill magmatic arc that contains the Ammonoosuc Volcanics, Partridge Formation, and Oliverian Plutonic Suite, and extends from Maine, through western New Hampshire (down the eastern side of the Connecticut River), through southern New England to Long Island Sound. The deformed and partially eroded arc is locally overlain by a relatively thin Silurian section of metasedimentary rocks (Clough Quartzite and Fitch Formation) that thickens to the east. The Silurian section near Littleton is disconformably overlain by a thicker, Lower Devonian section that includes mostly metasedimentary and minor metavolcanic rocks of the Littleton Formation. The Bronson Hill anticlinorium is bisected by a series of northeast-southwest trending Mesozoic normal faults. Primarily among them is the steeply northwest-dipping Ammonoosuc fault that divides older and younger units (lower and upper sections) of the Ammonoosuc Volcanics. The Ammonoosuc Volcanics are lithologically complex and predominantly include interlayered and interfingered rhyolitic to basaltic volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks, as well as lesser amounts of slate, phyllite, ironstone, chert, sandstone, and pelite. The Albee Formation underlies the Ammonoosuc Volcanics and is predominantly composed of interbedded metamorphosed sandstone, siltstone, and phyllite. During the Late Ordovician, a series of arc-related plutons intruded the Ammonoosuc Volcanics including the Moody Ledge pluton and the Scrag granite of Billings (1937). Subsequent plutonism related to the Acadian orogeny occurred after volcanism and deposition resulted in the Littleton Formation during the Late Devonian, including the intrusion of the Haverhill pluton and French Pond Granite found in the southern part of the map. This report consists of a geologic map and an online geographic information systems database that includes contacts of bedrock geologic units, faults, outcrops, and structural geologic information. The geologic map is intended to serve as a foundation for applying geologic information to problems involving land use decisions, groundwater availability and quality, earth resources such as natural aggregate for construction, assessment of natural hazards, and engineering and environmental studies for waste disposal sites and construction projects.

New Hampshire↗

Trace elements and synthetic organic compounds in streambed sediment and fish tissue in the Great and Little Miami River basins, Ohio and Indiana, 1990-98

Streambed-sediment and fish-tissue samples were collected at eight sites in the Great and Little Miami Basins as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. The samples were analyzed for trace elements and synthetic organic compounds, including organochlorine insecticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and semivolatile compounds (SVOCs). Data from state-agency investigations within the study unit (more than 200 sites) were incorporated to gain a broader perspective of the occurrence and distribution of contaminants in the study unit. All data were compared to streambed-sediment-quality guidelines and fish-tissue guidelines to identify elevated contaminant concentrations. Guideline exceedances were plotted on distribution maps to identify areas in the study unit that may be of potential concern for wildlife health. Several trace elements were detected in both sediment and fish-tissue samples. In sediment, lead and zinc were most frequently detected at levels that may have adverse effects on aquatic organisms. Generally, only one of the trace elements analyzed for per site exceeded concentrations above which adverse biological effects are frequently anticipated. Organochlorine insecticides were infrequently detected in sediment or fish tissue throughout the study unit. More organochlorine insecticides were detected in fish tissues than in sediment; however, more guidelines were exceeded in sediment. No distinct geographic overlap between sediment and fish-tissue sites was evident with respect to elevated organochlorine insecticide concentrations. Sediment-quality guideline exceedances were generally widespread throughout the study unit, whereas fish-tissue guidelines were exceeded only on the Mad River. PCBs were detected more often in fish tissue than in sediment throughout the study unit. Elevated PCB concentrations in fish tissue were common and widespread. No distinct geographic overlap of PCB exceedances was evident between sediment and fish-tissue sites. In sediments, elevated concentrations were detected most often for SVOCs, particularly for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Areas where SVOC guidelines were frequently exceeded include the Great Miami River main stem from Dayton to south of Hamilton, and the Upper Little Miami River Basin in Greene County. Overall, a higher frequency of trace-element detections in fish tissue and sediment trace-element guideline exceedances was found in the Great Miami River Basin than in the Little Miami River Basin. Organochlorine insecticide guidelines for fish tissue and sediment, as well as PCB and SVOC guidelines for sediment also were exceeded more frequently in the Great Miami River Basin. PCB guideline exceedances for fish tissue were found more often in the Little Miami River Basin.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Ion association in natural brines

Natural brines, both surface and subsurface, are highly associated aqueous solutions. Ion complexes in brines may be ion pairs in which the cation remains fully hydrated and the bond between the ions is essentially electrostatic, or coordination complexes in which one or more of the hydration water molecules are replaced by covalent bonds to the anion. Except for Cl − , the major simple ions in natural brines form ion pairs; trace and minor metals in brines form mainly coordination complexes. Limitations of the Debye-Hückel relations for activity coefficients and lack of data on definition and stability of all associated species in concentrated solutions tend to produce underestimates of the degree of ion association, except where the brines contain a very high proportion of Cl − . Data and calculations on closed basin brines of highly varied composition have been coupled with electrode measurements of single-ion activities in an attempt to quantify the degree of ion association. Such data emphasize the role of magnesium complexes. Trace metal contents of closed basin brines are related to complexes formed with major anions. Alkaline sulfo- or chlorocarbonate brines (western Great Basin) carry significant trace metal contents apparently as hydroxides or hydroxy polyions. Neutral high chloride brines (Bonneville Basin) are generally deficient in trace metals. With a knowledge of the thermodynamic properties of a natural water, many possible reactions with other phases (solids, gases, other liquids) may be predicted. A knowledge of these reactions is particularly important in the study of natural brines which may be saturated with many solid phases (silicates, carbonates, sulfates, etc.), which may have a high pH and bring about dissolution of other phases (silica, amphoteric hydroxides, CO 2 , etc.), and which because of their high density may form relatively stable interfaces with dilute waters.

Chemical Geology↗

Factors controlling localization of uranium deposits in the Dakota Sandstone, Gallup and Ambrosia Lake mining districts, McKinley County, New Mexico

Geologic studies were made at all of the uranium mines and prospects in the Dakota Sandstone of Early(?) and Late Cretaceous age in the Gallup mining district, McKinley County, New Mexico. Dakota mines in the adjacent Ambrosia Lake mining district were visited briefly for comparative purposes. Mines in the eastern part of the Gallup district, and in the Ambrosia Lake district, are on the Chaco slope of the southern San Juan Basin in strata which dip gently northward toward the central part of the basin. Mines in the western part of the Gallup district are along the Gallup hogback (Nutria monocline) in strata which dip steeply westward into the Gallup sag. Geologic factors which controlled formation of the uranium deposits in the Dakota Sandstone are: (1) a source of uranium, believed to be uranium deposits of the underlying Morrison Formation of Late Jurassic age; (2) the accessibility to the Dakota of uranium-bearing solutions from the Morrison; (3) the presence in the Dakota of permeable sandstone beds overlain by impermeable carbonaceous shale beds; and (4) the occurrence within the permeable Dakota sandstone beds of carbonaceous reducing material as bedding-plane laminae, or as pockets of carbonaceous trash. Most of the Dakota uranium deposits are found in the lower part of the formation in marginal-marine distributary-channel sandstones which were deposited in the backshore environment. However, the Hogback no. 4 (Hyde) Mine (Gallup district) occurs in sandy paludal shale of the backshore environment, and another deposit, the Silver Spur (Ambrosia Lake district), is found in what is interpreted to be a massive beach or barrier-bar sandstone of the foreshore environment in the upper part of the Dakota. The sedimentary depositional environment most favorable for the accumulation of uranium is that of backshore areas lateral to main distributary channels, where levee, splay, and some distributary-channel sandstones intertongue with gray carbonaceous shales and siltstones of the well-drained swamp environment. Deposits of black carbonaceous shale which were formed in the poorly drained swamp deposits of the interfluve area are not favorable host rocks for uranium. The depositional energy levels of the various environments in which the sandstone and shale beds of the Dakota were deposited govern the relative favorability of the strata as uranium host rocks. In the report area, uranium usually occurs in carbonaceous sandstone deposited under low- to medium-energy fluvial conditions within distributary channels. A prerequisite, however, is that such sandstone be overlain by impermeable carbonaceous shale beds. Low- to medium-energy fluvial conditions result in the deposition of sandstone beds having detrital carbonaceous material distributed in laminae or in trash pockets on bedding planes. The carbonaceous laminae and trash pockets provide the necessary reductant to cause precipitation of uranium from solution. High-energy fluvial conditions result in the deposition of sandstones having little or no carbonaceous material included to provide a reductant. Very low energy swampy conditions result in carbonaceous shale deposits, which are generally barren of uranium because of their relative impermeability to migrating uranium-bearing solutions.

Open-File Report↗

Revised Comparisons of Simulated Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Projected Demands in 2046, Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado

Pueblo Reservoir is one of southeastern Colorado's most valuable water resources. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. The reservoir also provides flood control, recreational activities, sport fishing, and wildlife enhancement to the region. The Southern Delivery System (SDS) project is a regional water-delivery project that has been proposed to provide a safe, reliable, and sustainable water supply through the foreseeable future (2046) for Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West. Discussions with the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey led to a cooperative agreement to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality of Pueblo Reservoir. This work has been completed and described in a previously published report, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5056. Additionally, there was a need to make comparisons of simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands associated with the various Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) alternatives and plans by Pueblo West to discharge treated wastewater into the reservoir. Wastewater plans by Pueblo West are fully independent of the SDS project. This report compares simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands in Pueblo Reservoir resulting from changes in inflow and water quality entering the reservoir, and from changes to withdrawals from the reservoir as projected for the year 2046. Four of the seven EIS alternatives were selected for scenario simulations. The four U.S. Geological Survey simulation scenarios were the No Action scenario (EIS Alternative 1), the Downstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 2), the Upstream Return-Flow scenario (EIS Alternative 4), and the Upstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 7). Additionally, the results of an Existing Conditions scenario (year 2006 demand conditions) were compared to the No Action scenario (projected demands in 2046) to assess changes in water quality over time. All scenario modeling used an external nutrient-decay model to simulate degradation and assimilation of nutrients along the riverine reach upstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Reservoir modeling was conducted using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CE-QUAL-W2 two-dimensional water-quality model. Lake hydrodynamics, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, algal biomass, and total iron were simulated. Two reservoir site locations were selected for comparison. Results of simulations at site 3B were characteristic of a riverine environment in the reservoir, whereas results at site 7B (near the dam) were characteristic of the main body of the reservoir. Simulation results for the epilimnion and hypolimnion at these two sites also were evaluated and compared. The simulation results in the hypolimnion at site 7B were indicative of the water quality leaving the reservoir. Comparisons of the different scenario results were conducted to assess if substantial differences were observed between selected scenarios. Each of the scenarios was simulated for three contiguous years representing a wet, average, and dry annual hydrologic cycle (water years 2000 through 2002). Additionally, each selected simulation scenario was evaluated for differences in direct and cumulative effects on a particular scenario. Direct effects are intended to isolate the future effects of the scenarios. Cumulative effects are intended to evaluate the effects of the scenarios in conjunction with all reasonably foreseeable future activities in the study area. Comparisons between the direct- and cumulative-effects analyses indicated that there were not large differences in the results between most of the simulation scenarios, and, as such, the focus of this report was on results for the direct-effects analysis. Additionally, the differences between simulation results generally were

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Environmental characterization of Blue Mesa Reservoir and potential causes of and management strategies for harmful algal blooms, 1970 through 2023, Curecanti National Recreation Area, Colorado

Blue Mesa Reservoir, in the Curecanti National Recreation Area, is the largest storage reservoir in Colorado and consists of three distinct basins: Iola (the shallowest), Cebolla, and Sapinero. After algal toxins were first documented in Iola basin in 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey began a study in cooperation with the National Park Service, Colorado River Water Conservation District, Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, Gunnison County, Project 7 Water Authority, and Uncompahgre Valley Water Users Association to better understand occurrence of toxic cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) and identify possible causal mechanisms to potentially inform management strategies. Toxic cyanoHABS occurred when the algal toxin microcystin exceeded a concentration of 8 micrograms per liter primarily in Iola basin in 2018 and 2020–22, years having some of the lowest reservoir water-level elevations (reservoir levels) since 1984. The toxic cyanoHABs started in mid-September and continued through the fall months. Algal abundance was greatest in Iola basin compared to Cebolla and Sapinero basins, with Aphanizomenon , a toxin-producing cyanobacterium, being the most abundant. During blooms, enhanced algal photosynthesis caused elevated pH and dissolved oxygen concentrations especially in Iola basin. Continuous monitor data in Iola basin indicated peaks in phycocyanin fluorescence, pH, and dissolved oxygen concentration that preceded the onset of toxic cyanoHABs by about 2 weeks potentially indicating a useful early warning monitoring strategy for future response to toxic cyanoHABs. Long-term trends showed increases in mean air and surface-water temperatures and chlorophyll- a concentrations in the reservoir but no change in nutrient inputs from major tributaries. In Iola basin, reservoir level was positively correlated with Secchi disk depth and inversely correlated with total phosphorus concentration. Because of its shallow depth, the effect of low reservoir levels may disproportionately affect Iola basin compared to other basins, resulting in algal blooms and toxin production especially at reservoir levels below about 7,470 feet above North American Vertical Datum of 1988. Elevated phosphorus at low reservoir level likely was primarily phosphorus contained in algal tissue. This report indicates that the main driver for recent toxic cyanoHABs in Iola basin is low reservoir level that likely causes favorable conditions (shallow and warm) for algal growth and increased recruitment of algae from bottom sediments such as during wind-driven turbulence. Control of external nutrients to the reservoir is unlikely to help control algal blooms because Aphanizomenon fixes nitrogen from the atmosphere, and there is an abundant geogenic source of phosphorus. Maintenance of reservoir levels greater than about 7,470 feet might help minimize the occurrence of toxic cyanoHABs. Additional data could help better understand how the timing and duration of reservoir levels below 7,470 feet contribute to toxic cyanoHABs.

Colorado↗