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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources

USGS2014

Water movement through the unsaturated zone of the High Plains Aquifer in the Central Platte Natural Resources District, Nebraska, 2008-12

Uncertainty about the effects of land use and climate on water movement in the unsaturated zone and on groundwater recharge rates can lead to uncertainty in water budgets used for groundwater-flow models. To better understand these effects, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Central Platte Natural Resources District was initiated in 2007 to determine field-based estimates of recharge rates in selected land-use areas of the Central Platte Natural Resources District in Nebraska. Measured total water potential and unsaturated-zone profiles of tritium, chloride, nitrate as nitrogen, and bromide, along with groundwater-age dates, were used to evaluate water movement in the unsaturated zone and groundwater recharge rates in the central Platte River study area. Eight study sites represented an east-west precipitation contrast across the study area—four beneath groundwater-irrigated cropland (sites 2, 5, and 6 were irrigated corn and site 7 was irrigated alfalfa/corn rotation), three beneath rangeland (sites 1, 4, and 8), and one beneath nonirrigated cropland, or dryland (site 3). Measurements of transient vertical gradients in total water potential indicated that periodic wetting fronts reached greater mean maximum depths beneath the irrigated sites than beneath the rangeland sites, in part, because of the presence of greater and constant antecedent moisture. Beneath the rangeland sites, greater temporal variation in antecedent moisture and total water potential existed and was, in part, likely a result of local precipitation and evapotranspiration. Moreover, greater variability was noticed in the total water potential profiles beneath the western sites than the corresponding eastern sites, which was attributed to less mean annual precipitation in the west. The depth of the peak post-bomb tritium concentration or the interface between the pre-bomb/post-bomb tritium, along with a tritium mass balance, within sampled soil profiles were used to estimate water fluxes in the unsaturated zone at three of the eight study sites: site 2 (irrigated), site 3 (dryland), and site 8 (rangeland). Estimates for recharge were about 68 millimeters per year [(mm/yr), post-bomb peak], 133 to 159 mm/yr (tritium interface), and 137 mm/yr (mass balance) at site 2 (irrigated); about 63 mm/yr (tritium interface) and 12 mm/yr (mass balance) at site 3 (dryland); and about 53 mm/yr (tritium interface) and 10 mm/yr (mass balance) at site 8 (rangeland). Recharge values from the mass balance at site 2 were more than an order of magnitude greater than recharge values at site 3, suggesting irrigation is an important control on water movement through the unsaturated zone. For the remaining five sites, the post-bomb tritium had flushed through the system and recharge was considered modern (within 10 years of sampling). The chloride mass-balance method was used to determine water fluxes below the root zone (less than 2 meters below land surface) at the rangeland sites: sites 1, 4, and 8. At these rangeland sites, water fluxes ranged from 1.8 to 96 mm/yr at site 1, 1.1 to 9.6 mm/yr at site 4, and 1.1 to 68 mm/yr at site 8, with mean rates of 21, 4.3, and 13 mm/yr, respectively. Site 1 had a greater mean water flux, which was consistent with the greater precipitation in the east than at site 8 in the west. Chloride mass balance was not calculated at the irrigated and dryland sites because of uncertainty about additional sources of chloride. Concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen in pore water in the unsaturated zone were larger beneath the irrigated and dryland (agricultural) sites compared with the rangeland sites. The larger concentrations at the agricultural sites are consistent with the application of nitrogen fertilizer at the agricultural sites and no substantial accumulation at the rangeland sites. The shape of the nitrate as nitrogen and chloride concentration profiles at site 1 (rangeland) indicate a reasonably larger and more consistent water flux in the UZ than beneath the other two rangeland sites (sites 4 or 8). Excluding site 7, the general shape of the nitrate as nitrogen profiles was similar beneath the agricultural sites and supports the estimates of water movement and recharge rates determined from the tritium and chloride methods. Movement of bromide through the unsaturated zone indicated greater water fluxes are found beneath irrigated lands than beneath rangeland. Bromide profiles in the unsaturated zone, determined from center of mass and peak displacement methods, document water fluxes ranged from 58 to 394 mm/yr beneath irrigated sites and 9 to 201 mm/yr beneath rangeland sites. Water-flux estimates from the potassium bromide tests at most sites did not represent overall recharge rates because the bromide remained primarily in the root zone. Apparent groundwater age was used to determine the groundwater residence time at the eight sites and to estimate recharge rates. Groundwater ages in the study area ranged from old water (defined here as groundwater that was recharged more than 50 years ago) to modern (defined here as groundwater that has recharged within the past 10 years). Groundwater ages indicated that the shallow monitoring wells generally had younger residence times, whereas the deeper monitoring wells generally had the older residence times. Groundwater dates from the shallowest monitoring wells were used to determine recharge rates at the water table. These rates generally were similar to recharge rates determined from tritium and chloride mass-balance methods. Groundwater recharge rates generally increased with well depth, and the deeper monitoring wells likely do not represent local recharge conditions but recharge from a regional flow system that receives recharge from distant sources. Overall, these data generally indicate that water movement within the unsaturated zone primarily is affected by spatial contrasts in mean annual precipitation and by the land use or land cover. The eight unsaturated-zone sites each generated unique, valuable datasets that likely will improve the understanding of water movement and recharge rates in the central Platte River valley.

Nebraska↗

USGS2007

Geographic Information System Software to Remodel Population Data Using Dasymetric Mapping Methods

The U.S. Census Bureau provides decadal demographic data collected at the household level and aggregated to larger enumeration units for anonymity purposes. Although this system is appropriate for the dissemination of large amounts of national demographic data, often the boundaries of the enumeration units do not reflect the distribution of the underlying statistical phenomena. Conventional mapping methods such as choropleth mapping, are primarily employed due to their ease of use. However, the analytical drawbacks of choropleth methods are well known ranging from (1) the artificial transition of population at the boundaries of mapping units to (2) the assumption that the phenomena is evenly distributed across the enumeration unit (when in actuality there can be significant variation). Many methods to map population distribution have been practiced in geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing fields. Many cartographers prefer dasymetric mapping to map population because of its ability to more accurately distribute data over geographic space. Similar to ?choropleth maps?, a dasymetric map utilizes standardized data (for example, census data). However, rather than using arbitrary enumeration zones to symbolize population distribution, a dasymetric approach introduces ancillary information to redistribute the standardized data into zones relative to land use and land cover (LULC), taking into consideration actual changing densities within the boundaries of the enumeration unit. Thus, new zones are created that correlate to the function of the map, capturing spatial variations in population density. The transfer of data from census enumeration units to ancillary-driven homogenous zones is performed by a process called areal interpolation.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS1995

Environmental setting of fixed sites in the western Lake Michigan drainages, Michigan and Wisconsin

This report describes selected environmental- setting features for 11 fixed surface-water sites in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages study unit of the National Water-Quality Assessment Pro- gram. The study unit, which includes 10 major river systems draining to Lake Michigan, is bounded on the south by the Illinois State line and extends north to about 31 miles north of Escanaba, Mich. The fixed sites are on the following streams: Peshekee River, Popple River, Menominee River, Pensaukee River, Duck Creek, Tomorrow River, East River, Fox River, North Branch Milwaukee River, Lincoln Creek, and Milwaukee River. Drainage basins above these sites receive runoff from land uses and land covers, bedrock types, and surficial deposits representative of the main types of each of these characteristics in the study unit. Data types collected at the fixed sites include water chemistry; organic compounds and trace elements in streambed sediment and biological tissues; algal, benthic-invertebrate, and fish communities; and aquatic habitat. Field measurements include water temperature, pH, specific conductance, alkalinity, and dissolved oxygen. Results of water- quality field measurements indicate little variation in temperature among the fixed sites. Specific conductance and alkalinity were generally higher at sites underlain by carbonate bedrock than at sites underlain by igneous/metamorphic bedrock. Differences in pH among the fixed sites were less than those for specific conductance and alkalinity, but pH seemed to increase slightly from north to south. Dissolved-oxygen concentration varied more at agricultural sites than at forested and urban sites, perhaps because of higher nutrient inputs at agricultural sites. The information included in this report has been assembled as reference material for ongoing studies at the fixed sites.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1996

Sampling design for assessing water quality of the Red River of the North basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1993-1995

This map report describes the sampling design for a comprehensive regional assessment of water quality in the Red River of the North Basin, a study unit under the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The sampling design was developed to address questions about the presence, distribution, and loads of nutrients and pesticides associated with large agricultural regions in the basin and across the Nation. The design also begins to address major local and regional concerns about suspended sediment in surface water and naturally occurring salinity in ground water. Recognizing that the Red River of the North Basin study unit realistically could not be analyzed as a single homogeneous area, a hierarchical sampling stratification for assessing water quality was developed. Landscape features consisting of physiography, soils, land cover and land use, and cropping patterns provided the environmental framework for stratification of streams and surficial aquifers. The environmental framework characterizes the climate and hydrology and relates closely to an ecoregions framework. The environmental and ecoregions frameworks were considered in locating ecological sampling sites. For the subsurface framework, buried sand and gravel aquifers in study unit were subdivided into two general subregions of differing potential saline recharge from underlying bedrock aquifers. Actual sampling sites for streams, aquatic biology, and ground water were described within the proposed sampling stratification. Practical considerations of previously established sampling sites, background information from previous hydrologic investigations, and site suitability for sampling protocols also were considered for final site selection.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2018

Waterfowl spring migratory behavior and avian influenza transmission risk in the changing landscape of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Avian influenza has advanced from a regional concern to a global health issue with significant economic, trade, and public health implications. Wild birds, particularly waterfowl (Anseriformes), are known reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (AIV) and recent studies have shown their potential in the spread of highly pathogenic forms of virus. East Asia remains an epicenter for the emergence of novel strains of AIV, however, information on movement ecology of waterfowl, and subsequently a clearer understanding of disease transmission risks in this region has been greatly lacking. To address this, we marked two species of wild waterfowl, northern pintail (Anas acuta) and Eurasian wigeon (Anas penelope) , with satellite transmitters on their wintering grounds in Hong Kong, China to study the northward spring migration in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway in relation to disease transmission factors. Northern pintail were found to initiate migration 42 days earlier, travel 2,150 km farther, and perform 4.4 more stopovers than Eurasian wigeon. We found both species used similar stopover locations including areas along the Yangtze River near Shanghai, Bohai Bay and Korea Bay in rapidly developing regions of the Yellow Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk where the species appeared to funnel through a migratory bottleneck. Both species appeared to exhibit strong habitat selection for rice paddies during migration stopovers, a habitat preference which has the potential to influence risks of AIV outbreaks as rapid land use and land cover changes occur throughout China. Both species had greatest association with H5N1 outbreaks during the early stages of migration when they were at lower latitudes. While Eurasian wigeon were not associated with outbreaks after the mean date of wintering ground departures, northern pintail were associated with outbreaks until the majority of individuals departed from the Yellow Sea, a migratory stopover location. Our results show species-level differences in migration timing and behavior for these common and widespread species, demonstrating the need to consider their unique temporal and spatial movement ecology when incorporating wild birds into AIV risk modeling and management.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2023

Estimating the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff risk across the Hawaiian landscape

In Hawai’i, ecosystem conservation practitioners are increasingly considering the potential ecohydrological benefits from applied conservation action to mitigate the degrading impacts of runoff on native and restored ecosystems. One determinant of runoff is excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land-cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future climate scenarios. We then mapped the potential risk of excess rainfall across the main Hawaiian Islands. Our results show that land cover type has a very large effect on runoff risk as excess rainfall conditions are 234% more likely in bare soil and 75% more likely in grasslands compared to woody forests and shrublands. In contrast, projected shifts in rainfall intensity by end-of-century show little impact on these probabilities and thus, the risk of runoff. This indicates that the probability of excess rainfall is primarily driven by differences in land cover and not by current or potential shifts in rainfall patterns across the Hawaiian landscape. The ability to estimate the risk of potentially ecologically and economically costly runoff based on changes of land cover is useful for managers focused on invasive species control and restoration planning, especially for native and endemic ecosystems unique to the State of Hawai’i.

Hawaii↗

USGS2015

The challenges of remote monitoring of wetlands

Wetlands are highly productive and support a wide variety of ecosystem goods and services. Various forms of global change impose compelling needs for timely and reliable information on the status of wetlands worldwide, but several characteristics of wetlands make them challenging to monitor remotely: they lack a single, unifying land-cover feature; they tend to be highly dynamic and their energy signatures are constantly changing; and steep environmental gradients in and around wetlands produce narrow ecotones that often are below the resolving capacity of remote sensors. These challenges and needs set the context for a special issue focused on wetland remote sensing. Contributed papers responded to one of three overarching questions aimed at improving remote, large-area monitoring of wetlands: (1) What approaches and data products are being developed specifically to support regional to global long-term monitoring of wetland landscapes? (2) What are the promising new technologies and sensor/multisensor approaches for more accurate and consistent detection of wetlands? (3) Are there studies that demonstrate how remote long-term monitoring of wetland landscapes can reveal changes that correspond with changes in land cover and land use and/or changes in climate?

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2023

Toxic algae in inland waters of the conterminous United States—A review and synthesis

Cyanobacteria are the most common toxigenic algae in inland waters. Their toxins can affect the health of aquatic and terrestrial organisms, including humans. Other algal groups, such as haptophytes (e.g., Prymnesium parvum ) and euglenoids (e.g., Euglena sanguinea ), can also form harmful algal blooms (HABs) whose toxins cause injury to aquatic biota but currently have no known effects on human health. Prymnesium parvum , however, is responsible for some of the worst HAB-related ecological disasters recorded in inland waters. Here, we provide an overview of the primary toxigenic algae found in U.S. inland waters: cyanobacteria (planktonic forms), P. parvum , and E. sanguinea with the objective of describing their similarities and differences in the areas of HAB ecology, algal toxins, and the potential for future range expansion of HABs. A detailed account of bloom habitats and their known associations with land cover and use is provided from the perspective of water quality. This review revealed that salinity may have an influence on inland cyanobacterial blooms and cyanotoxins that had not been fully recognized previously.

Water↗

USGS1984

ANALYSIS OF A CLASSIFICATION ERROR MATRIX USING CATEGORICAL DATA TECHNIQUES.

Summary form only given. A classification error matrix typically contains tabulation results of an accuracy evaluation of a thematic classification, such as that of a land use and land cover map. The diagonal elements of the matrix represent the counts corrected, and the usual designation of classification accuracy has been the total percent correct. The nondiagonal elements of the matrix have usually been neglected. The classification error matrix is known in statistical terms as a contingency table of categorical data. As an example, an application of these methodologies to a problem of remotely sensed data concerning two photointerpreters and four categories of classification indicated that there is no significant difference in the interpretation between the two photointerpreters, and that there are significant differences among the interpreted category classifications. However, two categories, oak and cottonwood, are not separable in classification in this experiment at the 0. 51 percent probability. A coefficient of agreement is determined for the interpreted map as a whole, and individually for each of the interpreted categories. A conditional coefficient of agreement for the individual categories is compared to other methods for expressing category accuracy which have already been presented in the remote sensing literature.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2013

The changing southwest

This chapter describes important geographical and socio-economic characteristics and trends in the Southwest—such as population and economic growth and changes in land ownership, land use, and land cover—that provide the context for how climate change will likely affect the Southwest. The chapter also describes key laws and institutions relevant to adaptive management of resources.

Southwest United States↗

USGS2000

Use of Argon, Corona, and Landsat imagery to assess 30 years of land resource changes in west-central Senegal

Over the past 35 years, an agricultural area of west-central Senegal has experienced rapid population growth, fast expansion of agricultural lands, a decline in rainfall, and degradation of vegetative and soil resources. Although such changes have not escaped the attention of Senegal's people, its government, and the scientific community the ability to monitor and quantify land resource trends of recent decades has been difficult. Recently available high-resolution satellite photographs from the American Argon and Corona Programs provide coverage of Senegal back to 1963. The photographs make it possible to study and map land resources at the beginning of the Space Age. In this study, we characterize the changes that have occurred in the region from the early 1960s to the mid-1 990s. Early Argon and Corona photographs are used to reconstruct the historical land use and land cover; comparisons are made with assessments from recent Landsat images. Field studies and aerial surveys provide additional insight. The forces of change, driven primarily by population growth and unsustainable agricultural practices, are examined

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2006

Coping with climate change

What have we learned so far about how climate change is affecting our global environment? Studies show that it adversely affects human and natural systems by • reducing biodiversity • altering hydrological systems • impairing biological and chemical cycles • making it more difficult to restore degraded ecosystems Climate is not the only factor in the deterioration of natural systems.We are making big changes to the landscape, altering land use and land cover in major ways. These changes combined present a challenge to environmental management. Adaptive management is a scientific approach to managing the adverse impacts of climate and landscape change.

ActionBioscience↗

USGS2015

Golden Eagle predation of an adult turkey vulture

The Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) is a large, apex predator that occurs at low densities, has a long life span, experiences delayed maturity, has low reproductive rates, and has no natural predators (Watson 1997, Kochert et al. 2002). Golden Eagles are sensitive to anthropogenic driven landscape changes in land cover and land use (Hunt 2002, Kochert and Steenhof 2002). Landscape level alterations, such as encroachment of woody vegetation in eagle foraging areas, may result in decreased abundance of suitable prey or interfere with the eagle’s ability to see or capture prey. Currently, there is substantial concern for Golden Eagle conservation due to widespread anthropogenic changes to landscapes across much of the species distribution (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2013). In particular, the rapid expansion of wind energy development has led to heightened concerns for Golden Eagle conservation, as the species is susceptible to mortality through collision with turbines (Hunt 2002, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2013). This has resulted in a recent increase in research to develop a better understanding of the species’ ecology.

Bulletin of the Texas Ornithological Society↗

USGS1978

An evaluation of errors in mapping land use changes for the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site

Land use change maps prepared from high-resolution, high-altitude aerial photographs for the period 1970 to 1972 of the CARETS (Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site) project were analyzed for accuracy. To test for errors of commission, all outlined areas (polygons) of land use change on five l:100000-scale maps were examined for accuracy. An estimate of the errors of omission was obtained by comparing the land use change polygons mapped for the Norfolk SMSA (Norfolk and Virginia Beach Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area) with the changes mapped in a more detailed study of the same area. The results of these studies showed that the largest number of errors was caused by misregistration of the land use change map to the 1970 land use map; however, only a very small percentage of the total land area of the land use change was affected by misregistration. In the Norfolk SMSA, which is an area of rapid urban growth, many of the land use changes had not been mapped. The conclusion is that quality control checks are necessary both during and after map compilation. The experience of the CARETS and other land use mapping experiments conducted in the early 1970's has resulted in the development of carefully designed quality-control procedures implemented in the nationwide mapping of land use and land cover currently being carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS1995

Validation of national land-cover characteristics data for regional water-quality assessment

Land-cover information is used routinely to support the interpretation of water-quality data. The Prototype 1990 Conterminous US Land Cover Characteristics Data Set, developed primarily from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data, was made available to the US Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The study described in this paper explored the utility of the 1990 national data set for developing quantitative estimates of the areal extent of principal land-cover types within large areal units. Land-cover data were collected in 1993 at 210 sites in the Central Nebraska Basins, one of the NAWQA study units. Median percentage-corn estimates for each sampling stratum wre used to produce areally weighted estimates of the percentage-corn cover for hydrologic units. Comparison of those areal estimates with an independent source of 1992 land-cover data showed good agreement. -Authors

Geocarto International↗

USGS2010

A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

he Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires. The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be solicited to construct these scenarios. The methods for mapping the current LULC and ecosystem disturbances will require the extensive use of both remote-sensing data and field-survey data (for example, forest inventories) to capture and characterize landscape-changing events. For potential LULC changes and ecosystem disturbances, key drivers such as socioeconomic and climate changes will be used in addition to the biophysical data. The result of these analyses will be a series of maps for each future year for each scenario. These annual maps will form the basis for estimating carbon storage and GHG emissions. For terrestrial ecosystems, carbon storage, carbon-sequestration capacities, and GHG emissions under the present conditions and future scenarios will be assessed using the LULC-change and ecosystem-disturbance estimates in map format with a spatially explicit biogeochemical ensemble modeling system that incorporates properties of management activities (such as tillage or harvesting) and properties of individual ecosystems (such as energy exchange, vegetation characteristics, hydrological cycling, and soil attributes). For aquatic ecosystems, carbon burial in sediments and fluxes of GHG are functions of the present and future potential stream flow and sediment transport and will be assessed using empirical hydrological modeling methods. Validation and uncertainty analysis methods described in the methodology will follow established guidelines to assess the quality of the assessment results. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Level II ecoregions map will be the practical instrument for developing and delivering assessment results. Consequently, the ecoregion (there are 22 modified ecoregions) will be the reporting unit of the assessment because the scenarios, assessment results, validation, and uncertainty analysis will be produced at that scale. The implementation of these methods will require collaborations among various Federal agencies, State agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and the science community. Using the method described in this document, the assessment can be completed in approximately 3 to 4 years. The primary deliverables will be assessment reports containing tables, charts, and maps that will present the estimated GHG parameters annually for 2001 through 2050 by ecosystem, pool, and scenario. The results will permit the evaluation of a range of policies, mitigation options, and research topics, such as the demographic, LULC-change, or climate-change effects on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and GHG fluxes in ecosystems.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States

Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 5 Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit datasets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of 10 anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting have relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less 15 forest cutting. Stand ages differ substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, 20 biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2019

Where’s the rock: Using convolutional neural networks to improve land cover classification

While machine learning techniques have been increasingly applied to land cover classification problems, these techniques have not focused on separating exposed bare rock from soil covered areas. Therefore, we built a convolutional neural network (CNN) to differentiate exposed bare rock ( rock ) from soil cover ( other ). We made a training dataset by mapping exposed rock at eight test sites across the Sierra Nevada Mountains (California, USA) using USDA’s 0.6 m National Aerial Inventory Program (NAIP) orthoimagery. These areas were then used to train and test the CNN. The resulting machine learning approach classifies bare rock in NAIP orthoimagery with a 0.95 F 1 "> F 1 score. Comparatively, the classical OBIA approach gives only a 0.84 F 1 "> F 1 score. This is an improvement over existing land cover maps, which underestimate rock by almost 90%. The resulting CNN approach is likely scalable but dependent on high-quality imagery and high-performance algorithms using representative training sets informed by expert mapping. As image quality and quantity continue to increase globally, machine learning models that incorporate high-quality training data informed by geologic, topographic, or other topical maps may be applied to more effectively identify exposed rock in large image collections.

California↗