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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Does earthquake stress drop increase with depth in the crust?

We combine earthquake spectra from multiple studies to investigate whether the increase in stress drop with depth often observed in the crust is real, or an artifact of decreasing attenuation (increasing Q ) with depth. In many studies, empirical path and attenuation corrections are assumed to be independent of the earthquake source depth. We test this assumption by investigating whether a realistic increase in Q with depth (as is widely observed) could remove some of the observed apparent increase in stress drop with depth. We combine event spectra, previously obtained using spectral decomposition methods, for over 50,000 earthquakes (M0 to M5) from 12 studies in California, Nevada, Kansas and Oklahoma. We find that the relative high-frequency content of the spectra systematically increases with increasing earthquake depth, at all magnitudes. By analyzing spectral ratios between large and small events as a function of source depth, we explore the relative importance of source and attenuation contributions to this observed depth dependence. Without any correction for depth-dependent attenuation, we find a systematic increase in stress drop, rupture velocity, or both, with depth, as previously observed. When we add an empirical, depth-dependent attenuation correction, the depth dependence of stress drop systematically decreases, often becoming negligible. The largest corrections are observed in regions with the largest seismic velocity increase with depth. We conclude that source parameter analyses, whether in the frequency or time domains, should not assume path terms are independent of source depth, and should more explicitly consider the effects of depth-dependent attenuation.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2021

Geodetic constraints on a 25-year magmatic inflation episode near Three Sisters, central Oregon

Crustal inflation near the Three Sisters volcanic center documented since the mid-1990s has persisted for more than two decades. We update past analyses of the event through 2020 by simultaneously inverting InSAR interferograms, GPS time series, and leveling data for time-dependent volcanic deformation source parameters. We explore several source models to estimate how the deformation rate varied through time and to identify parameters that can reproduce measured deformation. Our preferred model is a Mogi source 4.1 km below sea level (5.9 km below the surface) about 5 km west of the summit of South Sister. Inflation started in late 1995 or 1996; the rate increased rapidly during 1998–1999, and peaked in late 1999, resulting in maximum surface uplift of about 30 cm by mid-2020. Since 2000, the inflation rate generally declined exponentially with a time constant of about 6 years. Two source inflation scenarios fit the data equally well. In the first, the crust surrounding the source is elastic and the net source-volume increase, which we attribute to persistent magma input, has been about 49 × 10 6 m 3 . The second scenario adds a viscoelastic shell surrounding the Mogi source. In that case, an injection of about 21 × 10 6 m 3 of magma prior to 2000, followed by continuing relaxation of the viscoelastic shell, can account for most of the observed surface deformation. In both scenarios, modeling reveals quasiperiodic increases in the inflation rate (pulses) with a recurrence interval of 3–4 years, both before and after 2000.

Oregon↗
USGS2021

The finicky nature of earthquake shaking-triggered submarine sediment slope failures and sediment gravity flows

Since 2011, seafloor temperatures, pressures, and seismic ground motions have been measured by the seafloor cabled Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) on the Nankai margin. These measurements, high-resolution bathymetry, and abundant contextual information make the DONET region seem ideally suited to provide constraints on seismic shaking-triggered sediment slope failures and gravity flows, particularly since numerous published studies have linked paleo- to modern earthquakes to failures and flows within the DONET. The occurrences of the local 2016 M6.0 Mie-ken and regional M7.0 Kumamoto earthquakes within and at regional distances, respectively, from the DONET data set provided an opportunity to explore this potential. We used DONET seismic recordings of the posited triggering shaking and to search for submarine slide signals and continuous temperature and pressure data to detect pulses of warm and densified water indicative of passing flows. We developed and applied a variety of analytical methods to eliminate signals generated by water column processes, while leaving slope failures and sediment gravity flow anomalies as residuals. Our explorations yielded no evidence that earthquake shaking initiated either phenomenon, which we suggest reflects the finicky nature both of the detection of and the physical processes that contribute to slope failures and flows (i.e., both require satisfying precise suites of conditions). Nonetheless, this negative result, our analyses, and the estimates of physical properties we derived for them, provide useful lessons and inputs for future studies.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2022

Apparent age dependence of the fault weakening distance in rock friction

During rock friction experiments at large displacement, room temperature and humidity, and following a hold test, the fracture energy increases approximately as the square of the logarithm of hold duration. While it's been long known that failure strength increases with log hold time, here the slip weakening distance, d h , also increases. The weakening distance increase is large, hundreds of percent change over a few thousand seconds. The initial bare surface and simulated fault gouge experiments were conducted in rotary shear at 25 MPa normal stress, 21 MPa confining stress and at displacements greater than 100 mm. In contrast, initially bare surface experiments at 5 MPa normal stress, unconfined at displacements less than 10 mm show effectively no change in d h . We attribute the difference to the presence of an appreciable shear zone that develops due to wear over significant displacements, confined at elevated normal stress. Prior published studies of sheared simulated fault gouge at short displacement show both acknowledged and unacknowledged increases in d h that may relate to our observations. Since natural faults have well-developed shear zones, the observations have more direct relevance to earthquake nucleation than prior laboratory studies that use short displacement data and focus on frictional strength recovery alone. However, the physics underlying this increase in weakening distance are not known; candidates are compaction (Nakatani, 1998) and delocalization (Sleep et al., 2000). Additional caveats are that these are room temperature and humidity experiments, at a single normal stress that have not yet been reproduced in other laboratories.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2022

Three Mw ≥ 4.7 earthquakes within the Changning (China) shale gas field ruptured shallow faults intersecting with hydraulic fracturing wells

From 2017 to 2019, three destructive earthquakes (27 January 2017 Mw 4.7, 16 December 2018 Mw 5.2, and 3 January 2019 Mw 4.8) occurred in the Changning shale gas field in the southwest Sichuan Basin, China. Previous seismological studies attributed these events to hydraulic fracturing (HF), but were unable to identify the causative seismogenic faults and their slip behaviors. Here, we use Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar data to measure surface deformation triggered by the three events and conduct geodetic inversions to characterize their rupture models. The resulting coseismic interferograms show prominent surface deformation with the maximum line-of-sight displacements of up to 4 cm. The inversion results show that all three earthquakes mainly ruptured sedimentary formations above the shale gas bed, in the upper 3 km of the crust, with slip magnitudes ranging from 8.5 to 15 cm, and stress drops ranging from ∼1.8 to ∼3.3 MPa. Their source faults intersect with horizontal HF wells, but do not root in the crystalline basement. Combined with the reported difficulty of increasing HF operation pressures prior to the three events, we argue that they were most likely induced by direct injection of pressurized fluids into the fault zones. Crustal deformation patterns inferred from regional topography and GPS velocities highlight that the Changning field is located within a triple junction region near the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau with large deformation gradients; such conditions are not only favorable to the development of critically stressed faults, but also facilitate the occurrence of at least moderate magnitude earthquakes.

Changning shale gas field, Sichuan Basin↗
USGS2022

Possible effects of multiphase methane evolution during a glacial cycle on underpressure development in sedimentary basins: An analysis with application to the northeast Michigan Basin

In low-permeability systems, groundwater may be accompanied by separate-phase fluids, and measured pore water pressures may deviate from those expected in steady-state, single-phase systems. These same systems may be of interest for storage of nuclear waste in Deep Geologic Repositories. Therefore, it is important to understand the relationship between the presence of a separate phase and anomalous pressure development. At the Bruce site in Southern Ontario, a significant underpressure was observed, and there is evidence for the presence of gas-phase methane in situ. This study used a one-dimensional (vertical) numerical model of the subsurface down to a depth of 844 m beneath the Bruce site to evaluate possible effects of hydromechanical coupling with multiphase flow on pressure evolution during glacial loading and unloading. The simulated pressure conditions were affected strongly by the amount of methane initially present in the system, and the maximum simulated underpressure varied nonmonotonically with increasing initial methane content. When the initial methane content was below the solubility limit, exsolution led to underpressures that briefly exceeded those that formed in the single-phase case. At intermediate initial methane contents (sufficient to produce an immobile gas phase), the gas phase dampened the hydromechanical effects of the glacial cycle. At large initial methane contents (when a mobile gas phase was present), gas migration caused a large decrease in relative liquid permeability, which further contributed to underpressure development in the pore water. Multiple scenarios that spanned a range of initial methane contents yielded underpressures like those observed at the Bruce site.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth↗
USGS2022

Earthquake-derived seismic velocity changes during the 2018 caldera collapse of Kīlauea volcano

The 2018 Kīlauea caldera collapse produced extraordinary sequences of seismicity and deformation, with 62 episodic collapse events which significantly altered the landscape of the summit region. Despite decades of focused scientific studies at Kīlauea, detailed information about the internal structure of the volcano is limited. Recently developed techniques in seismic interferometry can be used to monitor the internal structure of an active volcano more directly by detecting subtle spatiotemporal changes in seismic wave velocity, but their utility relies on accurate interpretations of the underlying phenomena causing those velocity changes. Here, we retrospectively apply repeating-earthquake-based seismic interferometry to the 2018 Kīlauea eruption sequence. We find that seismic velocities changed over two distinct time scales: a sudden increase followed by a slower decrease in velocity in the hours following each collapse event, and a gradual, long-term decrease in velocity over several weeks that ceased approximately 1 month prior to the end of the eruption. Modeling suggests that short-term changes can be explained by magma reservoir pressurization which specifically closed vertical ring fractures. Long-term changes are related to subsidence of the caldera and likely include the influence of inelastic strain from the formation of new fractures. These observations provide new insights into the evolution of Kīlauea during its progressive collapse and will inform future interpretations for near-real-time monitoring at hazardous volcanoes around the world using similar techniques, especially where a dominant fracture orientation is present.

Hawaii↗
USGS2022

Detection of aseismic slip and poroelastic reservoir deformation at the North Brawley Geothermal Field from 2009 to 2019

The North Brawley Geothermal Field, located within the Brawley Seismic Zone of Southern California, presents a case study for understanding seismic hazards linked to fluid injection and geothermal energy extraction. An earthquake swarm near the geothermal field in 2012 included two earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5 and was potentially preceded by a years-long aseismic slip transient. To better understand ground deformation around the geothermal field, including its evolution with time and its physical mechanisms, we analyze deformation before, during, and after the swarm using ground- and satellite-based geodetic techniques between 2009 and 2019. We integrate observations from GNSS, Sentinel-1, TerraSAR-X, UAVSAR, and leveling surveys into a single deformation history. Modeling of this new collection of observations at the North Brawley Geothermal Field provides evidence for 80% more pre-swarm aseismic slip than previously recognized from 2009 to 2012. During the 2012 Brawley swarm, our geodetic slip inversions closely match the results of seismic waveform inversions from the swarm events. After the 2012 swarm, surface deformation is dominated by poroelastic deformation of a shallow fluid reservoir at <1 km depth rather than fault slip. The deformation history and seismicity catalogs at North Brawley suggest a cessation of fault-related slip during the ∼7 years after the 2012 earthquake swarm.

California↗
USGS2022

Insights on multistage rock avalanche behavior from runout modeling constrained by seismic inversions

Inversion of low-frequency regional seismic records to solve for a time series of bulk forces exerted on the earth by a landslide (a force-time function) is increasingly being used to infer volumes and dynamics of large, highly energetic landslides, such as rock avalanches and flowslides, and to provide calibration information on event dynamics and volumes for numerical landslide runout models. Much of the work to date using landslide runout modeling constrained by seismic data has focused on using single-phase models with frictional or velocity-weakening rheologies. Awareness of multistage landslide initiations is increasing, with discrete failures separated in time contributing to the final impact of an event. Our work utilizes a method for incorporating seismic data as a calibration constraint for landslide runout models, considering variable rheologies and different initiation conditions. This study presents a systematic examination of multiple rheologies and initiation conditions, and shows how these factors affect the force-time function derived from the landslide runout model. Our work confirms that, while rheology and fragmenting or initially coherent initiations affect the force-time function, multiple collapses separated by tens of seconds have the greatest impact on the shape and amplitude. We apply this method to the analysis of three real rock avalanches to better constrain plausible initiation conditions and rheology parameters using both seismic and field data. This study provides insights on how assumptions about the initiation dynamics of the source zone and the runout model definition can aid in the interpretation of seismic inversions for multistage rock avalanches.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2021

Active Mars: A dynamic world

Mars exhibits diverse surface changes at all latitudes and all seasons. Active processes include impact cratering, aeolian sand and dust transport, a variety of slope processes, changes in polar ices, and diverse effects of seasonal CO 2 frost. The extent of surface change has been surprising and indicates that the present climate is capable of reshaping the surface. Activity has important implications for the Amazonian history of Mars: understanding processes is a necessary step before we can understand their implications and variations over time.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2022

Evidence for fluctuating wind in shaping an ancient Martian dune field: The Stimson formation at the Greenheugh pediment, Gale crater

Temporal fluctuations of wind strength and direction can influence aeolian bedform morphology and orientation, which can be encoded into the architecture of aeolian deposits. These strata represent a direct record of atmospheric processes and can be used to understand ancient Martian atmospheric processes as well as those on Earth. The strata can: give insight to ancient atmospheric circulation, how the atmosphere evolved in response to global changes in habitability, and how ancient processes differ from modern processes. The Stimson formation at the Greenheugh pediment (Gale crater) records evidence of fluctuating wind across multiple temporal scales. The strata can be subdivided into three intervals–Gleann Beag, Ladder, and Edinburgh intervals. Internally, the intervals record changes of dune morphology and orientation, correlatable to wind fluctuations at multiple temporal scales. The basal Gleann Beag interval comprises compound cross-strata, deposited by oblique compound dunes. These dunes record a bimodal wind regime, resulting in net sediment transport toward the north. The Ladder interval records a reversal of sediment transport to the south, where straight-crested simple-dunes shaped by a seasonally variable winds formed. Finally, the Edinburgh interval records sediment transport to the west, where a unimodal wind formed sinuous-crested simple dunes. These observations demonstrate active and variable atmospheric circulation in Gale crater during the accumulation of the Stimson dune field, at multiple temporal scales from seasonally driven winds to much longer time-frames, during the Hesperian. These observations can be used to further understand ancient atmospheric conditions and processes, at a high temporal resolution on Mars.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets↗
USGS2022

Orbital and in-situ investigation of periodic bedrock ridges in Glen Torridon, Gale Crater, Mars

Wind has been the dominant agent of landscape modification on Mars for the past ~3 billion years. Among the diversity of features formed by aeolian abrasion on the surface of Mars are periodic bedrock ridges (PBRs), a relatively recently recognized class of erosional bedforms on Mars for which Earth analogues are rare. Gale crater, the field site for NASA’s Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover since it landed there in 2012, contains a diverse and extensive record of aeolian deposition and erosion. This study focuses on a series of periodic, linear bedrock ridges that occur within the Fe/Mg-smectite clay-bearing Glen Torridon region of Aeolis Mons (informally Mount Sharp). During Curiosity’s exploration of the Glen Torridon region between sols ~2300-3080, the rover drove through this field of ridges, providing the first opportunity for the in situ observation of these enigmatic erosional features. This study characterizes the Glen Torridon ridges using orbiter and rover data to determine their morphology, spatial distribution, compositional and material properties, and association with other aeolian features in the area. Based on these observations, the Glen Torridon ridges are interpreted to be consistent with an origin as wind-eroded periodic bedrock ridges carved during the most recent exhumation of Mount Sharp into the present-day mound. Although there is evidence for multidirectional winds in the Glen Torridon region based on the orientation of modern ripples, megaripples, TARs and other bedrock indicators, the consistent orientation of the Glen Torridon ridges, coupled with morphologic asymmetries within the ridges, support formation and elongation of the Glen Torridon PBRs forms parallel to a net regional northerly wind direction in and around Gale crater.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2022

Mars Science Laboratory CheMin data from the Glen Torridon region and the significance of lake-groundwater interactions in interpreting mineralogy and sedimentary history

The Glen Torridon (GT) region is positioned in terrains with strong clay mineral signatures, as inferred from orbital spectroscopy. The GT campaign confirmed orbital distinctions with in situ measurements by the Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity , and the CheMin X-ray diffraction instrument with of some of the highest clay mineral abundances to date. Additionally, GT is unique because of distinct phase identifications for the first time by CheMin, including: (i) Fe-carbonates, and (ii) a novel peak in the XRD patterns of some GT samples, with an interplanar spacing of at 9.2 Å. Fe-carbonates have been previously suggested from other instruments onboard, but this is the first definitive reporting by CheMin of multiple samples with Fe-carbonate. This new phase has never been observed in Gale crater with the CheMin instrument and may be a new mineral for Mars, but discrete identification still remains enigmatic because no single phase on Earth is able to account the mineralogical, geochemical, and sedimentological constraints in the GT region. Here, we modeled XRD profiles and propose an interstratified clay mineral, specifically greenalite-minnesotaite (G-M), as a reasonable candidate. The coexistence of Fe-carbonate and Fe-rich clay minerals in the GT samples, supports a conceptual model of a lacustrine groundwater mixing environment in the ancient Gale crater lake. Groundwater interaction with percolating lake waters in the sediments is common in terrestrial lacustrine settings, and the diffusion of two distinct water bodies within the subsurface can create a geochemical gradient and unique mineral front in the sediments. Ultimately, the proximity to this mixing zone controlled the secondary minerals preserved in the Jura, Knockfarril Hill, and Glasgow members of the Mt. Sharp group exposed in GT.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2022

Bedrock geochemistry and alteration history of the clay-bearing Glen Torridon region of Gale crater, Mars

Glen Torridon is a topographic trough located on the slope of Aeolis Mons, Gale crater, Mars. It corresponds to what was previously referred to as the “clay-bearing unit”, due to the relatively strong spectral signatures of clay minerals (mainly ferric smectites) detected from orbit. Starting in January 2019, the Curiosity rover explored Glen Torridon for more than 700 sols (Martian days). The objectives of this campaign included acquiring a detailed understanding of the geologic context in which the clay minerals were formed and determining the intensity of aqueous alteration experienced by the sediments. Here, we present the major-element geochemistry of the bedrock as analyzed by the ChemCam instrument. Our results reveal that the two main types of bedrock exposures identified in the lower part of Glen Torridon are associated with distinct chemical compositions (K-rich and Mg-rich), for which we are able to propose mineralogical interpretations. Moreover, the topmost stratigraphic member exposed in the region displays a stronger diagenetic overprint, especially at two locations close to the unconformable contact with the overlying Stimson formation, where the bedrock composition significantly deviates from the rest of Glen Torridon. Overall, the values of the Chemical Index of Alteration determined with ChemCam are elevated by Martian standards, suggesting the formation of clay minerals through open system weathering. However, there is no indication that the alteration was stronger than in some terrains previously visited by Curiosity , which in turn implies that the enhanced orbital signatures are mostly controlled by non-compositional factors.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2022

New craters on Mars: An updated catalog

We present a catalog of new impacts on Mars. These craters formed in the last few decades, constrained with repeat orbital imaging. Crater diameters range from 58 m down to <1 m. For each impact, we report whether it formed a single crater or a cluster (58% clusters); albedo features of the blast zone (88% halos; 64% linear rays; 10% arcuate rays; majority dark-toned; 4% light-toned; 14% dual-toned); and exposures of ice (4% definite; 2% possible). We find no trends in the occurrences of clusters with latitude, elevation, or impact size. Albedo features do not depend on atmospheric fragmentation. Halos are more prevalent at lower elevations, indicating an atmospheric pressure dependence; and around smaller impacts, which could be an observational bias. Linear rays are more likely to form from larger impacts into more consolidated material and may be enhanced by lower atmospheric pressure at higher elevations. Light- and dual-toned blast zones occur in specific regions and more commonly around larger impacts, indicating excavation of compositionally distinct material. Surfaces covered with bright dust lacking cohesion are favored to form detectable surface features. The slope of the cumulative size frequency distribution for this data set is 2.2 for diameters >8 m (differential slope 2.9), significantly shallower than the slope of new lunar craters. We believe that no systematic biases exist in the Martian data set sufficient to explain the discrepancy. This catalog is complete at the time of writing, although observational biases exist, and new discoveries continue.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2022

Ancient winds, waves, and atmosphere in Gale Crater, Mars, inferred from sedimentary structures and wave modeling

Wave modeling and analysis of sedimentary structures were used to evaluate whether four examples of symmetrical, reversing, or straight-crested bedforms in Gale crater sandstones are preserved wave ripples; deposition by waves would demonstrate that the lake was not covered by ice at that time. Wave modeling indicates that regardless of atmospheric density, winds that exceeded the threshold of aeolian sand transport could have generated waves capable of producing nearshore wave ripples in most grain sizes of sand. Reversing 3-m-wavelength bedforms in the Kimberley formation are interpreted not as wave ripples but rather as large aeolian ripples that formed in an atmosphere approximately as thin as at present. These exhumed bedforms define many of the ridges at outcrops that appear striated in satellite images. At Kimberley these bedforms demonstrably underlie and therefore predate subaqueous beds, suggesting that a thin atmosphere existed at least temporarily before subaqueous deposition ceased in the crater. The other three candidate wave ripples (Square Top, Hunda, and Voe) are consistent with modeled waves, but other origins cannot be excluded. The predominance of flat-laminated (non-rippled) beds in the lacustrine Murray formation suggests that some aspect of the lake was not conducive to formation or preservation of recognizable wave ripples. Water depths may generally have been too deep, lakebed sediment may have been too fine-grained, the lake may have been smaller than modeled, or the lake may have been covered by ice. Plain Language Summary Wave modeling and analysis of sedimentary structures were used to evaluate whether ancient lake deposits in Gale crater contain ripples formed by waves on the surface of the lake. Deposition by waves would show that the lake was not covered by ice at that time. Modeling shows that regardless of atmospheric density, winds capable of moving sand on land would generally have been strong enough to form waves that would produce ripples near shore. Large bedforms in the Kimberley formation are interpreted as ripples formed by the wind in an atmosphere similar to that of Mars today. These bedforms underlie and are older than other beds deposited in water, thereby showing that a thin atmosphere existed at least temporarily before deposition in water ceased in the crater. Three other candidate wave ripples are consistent with modeled waves, but other origins are possible. Thick sequences of sedimentary rock in Gale crater are flat-laminated rather than rippled, suggesting that some aspect of the lake was not favorable for their formation or preservation. Much of the lake may have been too deep or ice-covered, or the lake may have been smaller than modeled or had sediment too fine to form easily observed ripples.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2021

Postwildfire soil‐hydraulic recovery and the persistence of debris flow hazards

Deadly and destructive debris flows often follow wildfire, but understanding of changes in the hazard potential with time since fire is poor. We develop a simulation‐based framework to quantify changes in the hydrologic triggering conditions for debris flows as postwildfire infiltration properties evolve through time. Our approach produces time‐varying rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds for runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows with physics‐based hydrologic simulations that are parameterized with widely available hydroclimatic, vegetation reflectance, and soil texture data. When we apply our thresholding protocol to a test case in the San Gabriel Mountains (California, USA), the results are consistent with existing regional empirical thresholds and rainstorms that caused runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows soon after and three years following a wildfire, respectively. We find that the hydrologic triggering mechanisms for the two observed debris flow types are coupled with the effects of fire on the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. Specifically, the rainfall intensity needed to generate debris flows via runoff increases with time following wildfire while the rainfall duration needed to produce debris flows via subsurface pore‐water pressures decreases. We also find that variations in soil moisture, rainfall climatology, median grain size, and root reinforcement could impact the median annual probability of postwildfire debris flows. We conclude that a simulation‐based method for calculating rainfall thresholds is a tractable approach to improve situational awareness of debris flow hazard in the years following wildfire. Further development of our framework will be important to quantify postwildfire hazard levels in variable climates, vegetation types, and fire regimes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗
USGS2021

Multi-model comparison of computed debris flow runout for the 9 January 2018 Montecito, California post-wildfire event

Hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows, which are common in the steep terrain of the western United States, has focused on the susceptibility of upstream basins to generate debris flows. However, reducing public exposure to this hazard also requires an assessment of hazards in downstream areas that might be inundated during debris flow runout. Debris flow runout models are widely available, but their application to hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows has not been extensively tested. Necessary inputs to these models include the total volume of the mobilized flow, flow properties (either inherent material properties or calibration coefficients), and site topography. Estimates of volume are possible in post-event (“back calculation”) studies, yet before an event, volume is an uncertain quantity. We simulated debris flow runout for the well-constrained 9 January 2018 Montecito event using three models (RAMMS, FLO2D, and D-Claw) to determine the relative importance of volume and flow properties. We broke the impacted area into three domains, and for each model-domain combination, we performed a numerical sampling study in which volume and flow properties varied within a wide, but plausible range. We assessed model performance based on inundation patterns and peak flow depths. We found all models could simulate the event with comparable results. Simulation performance was most sensitive to flow volume and less sensitive to flow properties. Our results emphasize the importance of reducing uncertainty in pre-event estimates of flow volume for hazard assessment.

California↗