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Results for “Journal of Fisheries Management”

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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources
USGS2004

Fish-habitat modeling for gap analysis to conserve the endangered Topeka shiner (Notropis topeka)

Decision support tools that predict fish distribution over broad spatial scales are needed to assist in planning watershed management and endangered species recovery. We developed a geographical information system model with multivariate logistic regression to rank valley segments for probable occurrence of the endangered Topeka shiner (Notropis topeka) using stream condition variables (stream size, groundwater potential, channel slope, streamflow, network position) and land-cover variables (percent pasture, percent trees) in streams characteristic of the North American Great Plains. The stream condition and land-cover models correctly classified 89% and 68% of outcomes (i.e., presence or absence), respectively. Field tests of maps of predicted species distribution resulted in more species occurrences than expected in valley segments classified as high potential for presence and less than expected in low-potential valley segments. Gaps between high-priority segments and protected land parcels were found in all basins. In 37 basins with Topeka shiners, protected land coverage was <1% in 17 basins, 1-5% in 10 basins, and 5-21.8% in 10 basins. Conservation activities in gaps are long-term conservation measures, but maps of predicted species distribution have many immediate applications.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2013

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified. A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa , the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating. We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified. Synthesis and applications . The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2003

Chemosterilization of male sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) does not affect sex pheromone release

Release of males sterilized by injection with bisazir is an important experimental technique in management of sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), an invasive, nuisance species in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Sea lampreys are semelparous and sterilization can theoretically eliminate a male's reproductive capacity and, if the ability to obtain mates is not affected, waste the sex products of females spawning with him. It has been demonstrated that spermiating males release a sex pheromone that attracts ovulating females. We demonstrated that sterilized, spermiating males also released the pheromone and attracted ovulating females. In a two-choice maze, ovulating females increased searching behavior and spent more time in the side of the maze containing chemical stimuli from sterilized, spermiating males. This attraction response was also observed in spawning stream experiments. Also, electro-olfactograms showed that female olfactory organs were equally sensitive to chemical stimuli from sterilized and nonsterilized, spermiating males. Finally, fast atom bombardment mass spectrometry showed that extracts from water conditioned with sterilized and nonsterilized, spermiating males contained the same pheromonal molecule at similar levels. We concluded that injection of bisazir did not affect the efficacy of sex pheromone in sterilized males.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2026

Efficiency of down-looking cameras for detecting round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) over varying substrates in laboratory microcosms

Since invading the Laurentian Great Lakes in the late 1980s, round goby Neogobius melanostomus have become a dominant benthic prey species, resulting in a need to accurately monitor their population abundance to inform fisheries management. Camera-based methods for assessing round goby abundances have gained popularity, but their efficiencies for detecting round goby are poorly understood. We evaluated the efficiency of down-looking color monocular cameras for detecting round goby presence in microcosm enclosures with known numbers of fish. Detection efficiencies were compared between sand and cobble substrate during daylight hours using a generalized linear mixed-effects model. After accounting for trial effects, enclosure placement, and within-replicate temporal autocorrelation, round goby detection efficiency was 98.6% over sand (95% confidence limit (CL): 98.0–99.0%), and 55.3% over a single layer of cobble substrate (CL: 48.6–61.8%). The large difference in detectability between cobble and sand suggests that camera-based estimates of round goby abundances are likely to be biased low and have lower relative precision in high-structure habitats, but may be largely unbiased in low-structure habitats. Despite much lower relative detection efficiencies of cameras in high-structure cobble habitats, the efficiencies reported here still compare favorably to conventional methods like otter and beam trawling. Our results provide initial quantitative bounds on the possible degree of negative bias in camera-based estimates of round goby abundances in different substrates, but require further field verification across the diversity of substrates, interstitial infilling, and other structural attributes of habitat found in the Great Lakes.

Michigan↗
USGS2020

Does Lake Erie still have sufficient oxythermal habitat for cisco Coregonus artedi ?

In Lake Erie, cisco Coregonus artedi once supported one of the most valuable freshwater fisheries on earth, yet overfishing caused their eventual extirpation from the lake. With warming lake temperatures, some have questioned whether Lake Erie still contains suitable oxythermal conditions for cisco. Using published oxythermal thresholds for cisco and oxythermal profiles from Lake Erie, we sought to answer two questions critical to cisco restoration science. First, is cisco habitat still available during the most restrictive periods? Second, what is the distribution of cisco habitat during these times? Beta regression was used to determine that cisco habitat was most limited during the month of August, and that August of 2010 was the most restrictive period in the time series. We then used Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) to map the spatial extent of cisco habitat during these times. EBK maps revealed large areas of summer refugia for cisco in Lake Erie, even during the least favorable periods. Most of the Central and East Basins contain suitable habitat during the average August, yet during August of 2010, suitable conditions were limited to the eastern edge of the Central Basin and the deep waters of the East Basin. These findings align well with historical accounts of cisco landings. While suitable oxythermal habitat still exists for cisco in Lake Erie, future restoration efforts, if attempted, will partially depend on: 1) better management of nutrient inputs, 2) the realization of future climate scenarios, and 3) the ability of cisco to adapt to a changing lake.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2020

Validity of age estimates from muskellunge (Esox masquinongy) fin rays and associated effects on estimates of growth

Accurate age estimates are critical for understanding life histories of fishes and developing management strategies for fish populations. However, validation of age estimates requires known-age fish, which are often lacking. We used known-age (ages 1–25) muskellunge ( Esox masquinongy ) to determine the precision and accuracy of age estimates from fin rays. We also determined whether fin location (anal or pelvic), fin ray number, and preparation methods affected accuracy and precision. Lastly, we determined whether von Bertalanffy growth parameters estimated from fin ray ages were similar to parameters estimated from known ages. Precision and accuracy of age estimates from anal and pelvic rays were similar and estimates were relatively precise (coefficient of variation = 8.5%) and accurate (mean absolute difference from known age = 0.85 years) for ages 4–15, but ages were overestimated for younger fish and underestimated for older fish. Growth models based on estimated age were similar to models based on known age. Anal and pelvic rays offer a nonlethal alternative for age estimation of muskellunge ages 4–15 and for producing reliable estimates of growth.

Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Virginia, Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

Documentation of a probable spawning run of cisco Coregonus artedi in the Spanish River, Ontario, Canada

Coregonines were historically diverse and abundant in the Laurentian Great Lakes but declined throughout the 19th and 20th centuries due to multiple factors, including overfishing, habitat degradation, and interactions with invasive species. Great Lakes fishery managers are now working to restore coregonines across the basin. An important aspect of restoration efforts is the identification of key habitats, such as spawning habitats. Our understanding of the extent and diversity of coregonine spawning habitats in the Great Lakes is limited. Historical accounts suggest some cisco Coregonus artedi migrated to tributaries to spawn, but contemporary runs have not been reported. Moreover, cisco display considerable phenotypic variation, with different “forms” often occupying specific habitats or regions. We provide evidence for a previously undocumented spawning run of cisco in the Spanish River, a tributary to the North Channel of Lake Huron. We captured 31 mature and ripe fish (25 males, 6 females) approximately 52 km upstream of the river mouth on 15–16 November 2022. The fish ranged in age from 3-9 yr and total length from 287-394 mm. Of these 31 individuals, 27 were morphologically similar to C. artedi manitoulinus , a subspecies of cisco found in the North Channel; however, four individuals more closely resembled cisco captured in other areas of Lake Huron. These findings represent the best evidence of tributary spawning by cisco since the 1880s, and they have important implications for coregonine conservation and restoration efforts. Ongoing work aims to augment our understanding of the ecological and evolutionary importance of this population.

Ontario↗
USGS2021

Using simulation to understand annual sea lamprey marking rates on lake trout

Sea lampreys attack fish, killing some and leaving marks on others. Great Lakes fishery managers rely on observed marking rates to assess the success of the sea lamprey control program and estimate sea lamprey-induced mortality of lake trout. Because marking rates are only observed on survivors of sea lamprey attacks, they may not provide a reliable index of actual attack or mortality rates. To investigate the effect of survivor bias, we developed a simulation model representing a single season (June–December) of sea lamprey attacks. Simulated attack rates varied with month and lake trout size; simulated pierce and lethality rates varied with month alone. Surveyed marking rates were represented by simulated survivors in October; true rates were calculated from all simulated lake trout (dead and alive) in December. Simulation results were subsetted to include only those within the range of marking rates actually observed in the Great Lakes. Type A (piercing) marking rates were a good index of the sea lamprey attack rate and the sea lamprey-induced mortality rate if annual lethality rates were relatively constant. Type B (non-piercing) marking rates were a good index of the sea lamprey attack rate and the sea lamprey-induced mortality rate if annual pierce rates were relatively constant. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the pierce and lethality rates, we recommend that sea lamprey abundance information be incorporated in existing lake trout statistical catch-at-age models via a functional response component relating sea lamprey feeding to lake trout abundance, if possible.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2024

Reproducing age variability in grass carp egg samples from the lower Sandusky River, Ohio, USA, using an egg-drift model

Invasive grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) are currently reproducing in several tributaries to Lake Erie and threatening the Great Lakes ecosystem and fisheries. Grass carp are pelagic river spawners whose fertilized eggs drift downstream from the spawning site, developing as they drift. Variability in spawning time and location together with nonuniform velocities in natural rivers leads to egg age variability in field samples at downstream sampling sites. In this study, the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) model was used to simulate the transport of grass carp eggs collected in 12 samples at 9 sites in the lower Sandusky River (Ohio, USA) on July 12, 2017, to replicate the observed variability in egg-age distributions present in field samples. The variability in egg ages in virtual samples compare well to field samples. The most plausible explanations for differences between virtual and field samples are the existence of multiple spawning locations, including a spawning area approximately 8 kilometers upstream from the river mouth, and idealized flow fields derived from a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Despite multiple sources of uncertainty and the deficiency in prescribing detailed spawning activities in the simulations, the results validate the utility of FluEgg together with ichthyoplankton data to identify plausible spawning areas and interpret age variability in field samples. A comprehensive discussion of model limitations and ichthyoplankton sample interpretation provides guidance for those using drift models to inform management actions for control of invasive carp in North America and to protect and restore carp populations in their native range in Asia.

Ohio↗
USGS2014

Brood surveys and hunter observations used to predict gobbling activity wild turkeys in Mississippi

The Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks utilize data from turkey hunter observations and brood surveys from across the state to manage wild turkey Meleagris gallopavo populations. Since 1995, hunters have collected gobbling and jake observation data, while the Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks' personnel and cooperating wildlife managers of several natural resource agencies throughout the state have collected brood survey data. Both sources of data serve to forecast poult recruitment and gobbling activity. The objective of this study was to evaluate if these data can serve as a viable predictor of gobbling activity. We used three mixed models to investigate the relationship between the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior and the total number of poults per hens 2 y prior (model 1), number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting and the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior (model 2), the number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting and the total number poults per total hens observed 2 y prior (model 3) using data from 1995 to 2008 among five wild turkey management regions encompassing the state. We incorporated region as a random effect to account for spatial variation. We found the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior correlated with the total number of poults per total hens observed 2 y prior. We also found the number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting correlated with the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior. Additionally, we found that the total poults per total hens observed 2 y prior was correlated to the number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting. Our results show promise for using indices of gobbling activity, jake observations, and brood surveys to estimate gobbling activity.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2022

Next-generation lampricides: A three-stage process to develop improved control tools for invasive sea lamprey

Successful integrated management of the invasive predatory sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America is owed largely to the long history of beneficial use of two lampricides: 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM) and 2′,5-dichloro-4′-nitrosalicylanilide (niclosamide). Ensuring continued successful sea lamprey control necessitates consideration of possible next-generation lampricides to supplement or replace current lampricides. This review identifies fifteen hallmarks of success for current lampricides to be used as design criteria in a search for next-generation lampricides. A three-stage research approach is outlined. Targeted research using omics, computer modelling, and high-throughput technology to define molecular mechanisms and high probability molecular targets for sea lamprey selective toxic action is crucial to prioritizing chemical candidates. Targeted delivery or identifying synergists to existing or new lampricides can provide increased efficiency and reduced environmental impact. Ultimate development of next-generation lampricides will rely on traditional toxicity testing methodologies to ensure safety and regulatory compliance.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2003

Development and implementation of an integrated program for control of sea lampreys in the St. Marys River

The development and implementation of a strategy for control of sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the St. Marys River formed the basis for rehabilitation of lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) and other fish in Lakes Huron and Michigan. The control strategy was implemented by the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC) upon recommendations by the interagency Sea Lamprey Integration Committee, and many managers and scientists from United States and Canada federal, state, provincial, tribal, and private institutions. Analyses of benefits vs. costs of control options and modeling of the cumulative effects on abundance of parasitic-phase sea lampreys and lake trout produced a strategy that involved an integration of control technologies that included long- and short-term measures. The longterm measures included interference with sea lamprey reproduction by the trapping and removal of spawning-phase sea lampreys from the river and the sterilization and release of the trapped male sea lampreys. The theoretical reduction of larvae produced in the river from these two combined techniques averaged almost 90% during 1997 to 1999. Lampricide treatment with granular Bayluscide of 880 ha of plots densely populated with larvae occurred during 1998, 1999, and 2001 because modeling showed the sooner parasitic-phase sea lamprey populations declined in Lake Huron the greater the improvement for restoration of lake trout during 1995 to 2015. Post-treatment assessments showed about 55% of the larvae had been removed from the river. An adaptive assessment plan predicted high probability of detection of control effects because of many available indicators. The GLFC will face several critical decisions beyond 2001, and initiated a decision analysis project to aid in those decisions.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2019

Diving behavior of Pink-footed Shearwaters Ardenna creatopus rearing chicks on Isla Mocha, Chile

Recent information reporting Pink-footed Shearwater Ardenna creatopus mortality from fisheries bycatch throughout its range has encouraged fisheries managers in Chile to evaluate and consider shearwater foraging behaviors to better evaluate risk. In response, we tracked six chickrearing adult Pink-footed Shearwaters from Isla Mocha, off south-central Chile, from 19 to 28 March 2015 using global positioning sensors and time-depth recorders. We recorded seven complete trips averaging 4.2 ± 2.5 d (mean ± SD). Chick-provisioning adults foraged within 334 km (i.e., 175 ± 100 km) of Isla Mocha. Dives (n = 515) occurred throughout the measured foraging range but most frequently occurred within 5–30 km from the mainland coast, in continental shelf waters north of Valdivia. Other regions with diving behavior were within ~20 km of Isla Mocha, and from Lebu to north of Talcahuano. Based on movement behavior analysis, adults spent most of their time at sea “resting/ foraging” (62% ± 6%), with the remainder spent “searching” (16% ± 4%) and “transiting” (20% ± 5%). The proportions of total number of dives associated with these three behaviors were similar. On average, dives were relatively shallow (1.6 ± 1.2 m, maximum depth = 10.1 m) and brief (4.7 ± 4.8 s, maximum duration = 25.7 s). Dives occurred during the day, at night, and at twilight, with most activity occurring at twilight and during the day. Although based on a small sample size, our results may be useful for informing modifications to fishing gear or fisheries policy to reduce the likelihood of bycatch and thus meet Chilean conservation goals for Pink-footed Shearwaters.

Isla Mocha↗
USGS2017

Exploring potential effects of cormorant predation on the fish community in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron

Stakeholders and fishery managers expressed concern that double-crested cormorant Phalacrocorax auritus predation may be a factor in the recent poor survival of yellow perch Perca flavescens in Saginaw Bay. We quantified cormorant diets from two nesting colonies in Saginaw Bay during April–September in 2013 and 2014, with special emphasis on impacts to yellow perch. Cormorants ( n = 691) were collected when returning to colonies after foraging. Stomachs were removed and preserved in the field. Diet items were identified, enumerated, and measured ( n = 23.373). Cormorant diets from Saginaw Bay indicate a heavy reliance on round goby and Notropis species as prey during the breeding season, consistent with other areas of the Great Lakes where round goby and cormorants coincide. Respectively, the three most common prey species observed by number (%) and biomass (%) pooled across years and sites were round goby Neogobius melanostomus (56.6%, 42.1%), emerald shiner Notropis antherinoides (25.2%, 12.5%), and yellow perch (8.0%, 14.1%). Diet composition was more variable at Spoils Island than at Little Charity Island. Overall cormorant consumption (estimated using cormorant consumption demand rates) of yellow perch was compared to walleye consumption. Cormorant consumption of age-1 yellow perch was 13–17% as much as mean walleye consumption of yellow perch in 2013 and 8–11% in 2014. The cumulative effects of walleye and spring cormorant predation likely represent a recruitment bottleneck for yellow perch in Saginaw Bay. Future studies determining age-specific abundance of yellow perch would facilitate better determination of cormorant predation significance.

Lake Huron, Saginaw Bay↗
USGS2023

Environmental correlates of walleye spawning movements in an Appalachian hydropower reservoir

Understanding walleye ( Sander vitreus ) spawning behavior is important for managing walleye fisheries, but such information is limited for Appalachian reservoirs. We assessed spawning movements and spawning locations for a reestablished walleye population in Cheat Lake, West Virginia. We tagged fifty-two walleye with acoustic telemetry transmitters to evaluate environmental correlates associated with pre-spawn movements and to deter- mine spawning locations. Using an information-theoretic approach, we compared candidate logistic regression models to determine which environmental variables best explained upstream movements to spawning areas. The two models with the most support both included additive effects of year and water temperature, with sex also included in the second of these models. Water temperature had a significant positive relationship with pre-spawn movements in each model. Other environmental covariates such as river discharge and water elevation were not significant predictors of upstream pre-spawn move- ments. Walleye made pre-spawn upstream movements in late winter/early spring to spawning areas in the headwaters of Cheat Lake during periods of el- evated water temperatures (75 % of movement events occurred at water temperatures >4.1 C) where spawning occurred in shallow (<1.5 m), rocky habitat. Male walleye generally made upstream pre-spawn movements earlier than females. Our results also suggested the timing of walleye spawning with respect to water-level fluctuations could influence reproductive success due to stranding of eggs or reducing suitable spawning habitat. Knowledge of pre-spawn movement patterns and spawning locations could aid management of this recovering population. Benefits to management may include the prediction of spawning timing and locations for broodstock surveys and influences of water-level fluctuations and other environmental stressors on spawning success.

Pennsylvania, West Virginia↗
USGS2025

Drowned river mouth lakes are winter foraging habitats for the expanding Lake Michigan cisco Coregonus artedi population

Characterizing fish movements is required for understanding habitat use, energy flow, and trophic structure and can inform fisheries management. Drowned river mouth (DRM) lakes are productive inland habitats in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin used by migratory fishes. Despite recognition of their ecological connections to the Great Lakes, the value of DRM lakes as seasonal habitats is not well understood for many fishes. One such species, cisco Coregonus artedi , has recently expanded in Lake Michigan from near extirpation to higher relative abundances in the northeastern portion of the lake. Cisco are recreationally harvested in some DRM lakes during winter, but little is known about cisco movement patterns and ecology. In winter 2022 and 2023, we collected cisco from three DRM lakes along the eastern shores of Lake Michigan (Lake Charlevoix, Portage Lake, Muskegon Lake) to characterize genetics, morphometrics, and diets. We also implanted telemetry tags in 20 cisco collected in Lake Charlevoix to examine movement patterns and determine DRM lake residency (i.e., seasonal vs. year-round). We found no consistent genetic or morphometric differentiation across DRM lakes, suggesting that recolonization began from a single stock. Fish were the only diet item found in cisco guts collected during winter months. Movement patterns from Lake Charlevoix indicated strong spawning site fidelity to Grand Traverse Bay as well as non-spawning site fidelity. However, given the presence of cisco in southern DRM lakes and some site-specific differences in morphometrics, managers could benefit from further research to determine whether spawning occurs in southern Lake Michigan.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2017

Genetic structure of muskellunge in the Great Lakes region and the effects of supplementation on genetic integrity of wild populations

Muskellunge ( Esox masquinongy ) are important apex predators that support numerous recreational fisheries throughout the Great Lakes region. Declines in muskellunge abundance from historical overharvest and environmental degradation have threatened the viability of many populations and prompted significant restoration efforts that often include stocking. The goal of our study was to investigate contemporary population structure and genetic diversity in 42 populations of muskellunge sampled across the Great Lakes region to inform future management and supplementation practices. We genotyped 1896 muskellunge ( N = 10–123/population) at 13 microsatellite loci. The greatest genetic variation was between populations of Great Lakes origin and populations of Northern (inland) origin, with both groups also exhibiting significant substructure (overall F ST = 0.23). Genetic structure was generally correlated with geography; however, we only found marginal evidence of isolation by distance, likely due to high genetic differentiation among proximate populations. Measures of genetic diversity were moderate across most populations, but some populations displayed low diversity consistent with small population sizes or historical bottlenecks. Many of the populations studied displayed evidence of historic introductions and supplemental stocking, including the presence of individuals with primarily non-native ancestry as well as interlineage hybrids. Our results suggest that the historic population structure of muskellunge is largely intact across the Great Lakes region, but also that stocking practices have altered this structure to some degree. We suggest that future supplementation practices use local sources where possible, and incorporate genetic tools including broodstock screening to ensure that non-native muskellunge are not used to supplement wild populations.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2004

Relationships between bald eagle productivity and dynamics of fish populations and fisheries in the Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior, 1983-1999

Bald eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) abundance declined in the 1950s and 1960s along the Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior, and were nearly absent along Wisconsin's Lake Superior shoreline. The population began to increase again between 1980 and 1983, and since then bald eagles nesting on islands along Wisconsin's Lake Superior shoreline (i.e., Apostle Islands ) reproduced at a lower rate than have those nesting along the mainland shoreline of the lake and inland. Recent research indicated that bioaccumulation of toxic chemicals in the aquatic food chain no longer limits bald eagle reproduction there, and that productivity at island nests was lower than at mainland nests and inland nests as the result of low food availability. Management agencies have sought models that accurately predict productivity and explain ecological relationships, but no satisfactory models had previously been developed. Modeling was conducted here to determine which factors best explained productivity variability. The Ricker stock-recruitment model derived from only the bivariate breeding pair and productivity data explained only 1% of the variability in productivity data. The functional relationship that explained the greatest amount of productivity variation (83%) included the number of breeding pairs, burbot ( Lota lota ) biomass, longnose sucker ( Catostomus catostomus ) biomass, and commercial harvest of nontarget fishes. Model results were interpreted to mean that productivity was positively affected by populations of burbot and longnose sucker, which are important prey items, and by commercial fishermen feeding nontarget fish to bald eagles. Harvest of nontarget fishes by tribal fishermen and burbot and longnose sucker populations have not tended to change during the entire study period, although the burbot population has declined since 1991. Therefore, bald eagle productivity is not predicted to increase unless burbot, longnose sucker, or other preferred prey of bald eagles increases in the Apostle Islands.

Wisconsin↗