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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources

USGS2019

A Generalized Additive Model approach to evaluating water quality: Chesapeake Bay Case Study

Nutrient-reduction efforts have been undertaken in recent decades to mitigate the impacts of eutrophication in coastal and estuarine systems worldwide. To track progress in response to one of these efforts we use Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to evaluate a diverse suite of water quality constituents over a 32-year period in the Chesapeake Bay, an estuary on the east coast of the United States. Model development included selecting a GAM structure to describe nonlinear seasonally-varying changes over time, incorporating hydrologic variability via either river flow or salinity, and using interventions to model method or laboratory changes suspected to impact data. This approach, transferable to other systems, allows for evaluation of water quality data in a statistically rigorous way, while being suitable for application to many sites and variables. This enables consistent generation of annual updates, while providing a tool for developing insights to a range of management- and research-focused questions.

Chesapeake Bay↗

USGS2010

Biocomplexity in mangrove ecosystems

Mangroves are an ecological assemblage of trees and shrubs adapted to grow in intertidal environments along tropical coasts. Despite repeated demonstration of their economic and societal value, more than 50% of the world's mangroves have been destroyed, 35% in the past two decades to aquaculture and coastal development, altered hydrology, sea-level rise, and nutrient overenrichment. Variations in the structure and function of mangrove ecosystems have generally been described solely on the basis of a hierarchical classification of the physical characteristics of the intertidal environment, including climate, geomorphology, topography, and hydrology. Here, we use the concept of emergent properties at multiple levels within a hierarchical framework to review how the interplay between specialized adaptations and extreme trait plasticity that characterizes mangroves and intertidal environments gives rise to the biocomplexity that distinguishes mangrove ecosystems. The traits that allow mangroves to tolerate variable salinity, flooding, and nutrient availability influence ecosystem processes and ultimately the services they provide. We conclude that an integrated research strategy using emergent properties in empirical and theoretical studies provides a holistic approach for understanding and managing mangrove ecosystems.

Annual Review of Marine Science↗

USGS2002

Rangeland health attributes and indicators for qualitative assessment

Panels of experts from the Society for Range Management and the National Research Council proposed that status of rangeland ecosystems could be ascertained by evaluating an ecological site's potential to conserve soil resources and by a series of indicators for ecosystem processes and site stability. Using these recommendations as a starting point, we developed a rapid, qualitative method for assessing a moment-in-time status of rangelands. Evaluators rate 17 indicators to assess 3 ecosystem attributes (soil and site stability, hydrologic function, and biotic integrity) for a given location. Indicators include rills, water flow patterns, pedestals and terracettes, bare ground, gullies, wind scour and depositional areas, litter movement, soil resistance to erosion, soil surface loss or degradation, plant composition relative to infiltration, soil compaction, plant functional/structural groups, plant mortality, litter amount, annual production, invasive plants, and reproductive capability. In this paper, we detail the development and evolution of the technique and introduce a modified ecological reference worksheet that documents the expected presence and amount of each indicator on the ecological site. In addition, we review the intended applications for this technique and clarify the differences between assessment and monitoring that lead us to recommend this technique be used for moment-in-time assessments and not be used for temporal monitoring of rangeland status. Lastly, we propose a mechanism for adapting and modifying this technique to reflect improvements in understanding of ecosystem processes. We support the need for quantitative measures for monitoring rangeland health and propose some measures that we believe may address some of the 17 indicators.

Journal of Range Management↗

USGS2010

Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center--providing comprehensive earth science for complex societal issues

Minerals in the environment and products manufactured from mineral materials are all around us and we use and come into contact with them every day. They impact our way of life and the health of all that lives. Minerals are critical to the Nation's economy and knowing where future mineral resources will come from is important for sustaining the Nation's economy and national security. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Resources Program (MRP) provides scientific information for objective resource assessments and unbiased research results on mineral resource potential, production and consumption statistics, as well as environmental consequences of mining. The MRP conducts this research to provide information needed for land planners and decisionmakers about where mineral commodities are known and suspected in the earth's crust and about the environmental consequences of extracting those commodities. As part of the MRP scientists of the Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center (WMERSC or 'Center' herein) coordinate the development of national, geologic, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral-resource databases and the migration of existing databases to standard models and formats that are available to both internal and external users. The unique expertise developed by Center scientists over many decades in response to mineral-resource-related issues is now in great demand to support applications such as public health research and remediation of environmental hazards that result from mining and mining-related activities. Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center Results of WMERSC research provide timely and unbiased analyses of minerals and inorganic materials to (1) improve stewardship of public lands and resources; (2) support national and international economic and security policies; (3) sustain prosperity and improve our quality of life; and (4) protect and improve public health, safety, and environmental quality. The MRP supports approximately 40 USGS research specialists who utilize cooperative agreements with universities, industry, and other governmental agencies to support their collaborative research and information exchange. Scientists of the WMERSC study how and where non-fuel mineral resources form and are concentrated in the earth's crust, where mineral resources might be found in the future, and how mineral materials interact with the environment to affect human and ecosystem health. Natural systems (ecosystems) are complex - our understanding of how ecosystems operate requires collecting and synthesizing large amounts of geologic, geochemical, biologic, hydrologic, and meteorological information. Scientists in the Center strive to understand the interplay of various processes and how they affect the structure, composition, and health of ecosystems. Such understanding, which is then summarized in publicly available reports, is used to address and solve a wide variety of issues that are important to society and the economy. WMERSC scientists have extensive national and international experience in these scientific specialties and capabilities - they have collaborated with many Federal, State, and local agencies; with various private sector organizations; as well as with foreign countries and organizations. Nearly every scientific and societal challenge requires a different combination of scientific skills and capabilities. With their breadth of scientific specialties and capabilities, the scientists of the WMERSC can provide scientifically sound approaches to a wide range of societal challenges and issues. The following sections describe examples of important issues that have been addressed by scientists in the Center, the methods employed, and the relevant conclusions. New directions are inevitable as societal needs change over time. Scientists of the WMERSC have a diverse set of skills and capabilities and are proficient in the collection and integration of

Circular↗

USGS2015

Soil ecology of a rock outcrop ecosystem: Abiotic stresses, soil respiration, and microbial community profiles in limestone cedar glades

Limestone cedar glades are a type of rock outcrop ecosystem characterized by shallow soil and extreme hydrologic conditions—seasonally ranging from xeric to saturated—that support a number of plant species of conservation concern. Although a rich botanical literature exists on cedar glades, soil biochemical processes and the ecology of soil microbial communities in limestone cedar glades have largely been ignored. This investigation documents the abiotic stress regime of this ecosystem (shallow soil, extreme hydrologic fluctuations and seasonally high soil surface temperatures) as well as soil physical and chemical characteristics, and relates both types of information to ecological structures and functions including vegetation, soil respiration, and soil microbial community metabolic profiles and diversity. Methods used in this investigation include field observations and measurements of soil physical and chemical properties and processes, laboratory analyses, and microbiological assays of soil samples. Stress factors quantified by this research include shallow soil (depth to bedrock ranging from 2.4 to 22.6 cm), volumetric soil water content levels seasonally ranging from xeric (below 5%) to saturated (above 50%), and seasonally extreme ground-surface temperatures (above 48°C). Findings from this research indicate that spatial and temporal heterogeneity exists in limestone cedar glades in terms of abiotic stress factors and soil physical and chemical properties. Several such soil properties (e.g. soil depth, organic matter levels, pH, and particle size distribution) are spatially correlated. These soil properties were statistically related to ecological structures and functions such as vegetation patterns, soil respiration, the density of culturable heterotrophic microbes in soil and metabolic diversity of soil microbial community profiles. In general, zones within limestone cedar glades that had relatively shallow soil, alkaline pH, low levels of organic matter and high levels of silt also tended to have depressed rates of soil respiration and reduced densities and metabolic diversity of culturable heterotrophic soil microbes. Additionally, seasonally-relevant stress factors including soil water content and temperatures at or near the soil surface were related to the same set of ecological structures and functions.

Tennessee↗

USGS2004

Atlas of depth-duration frequency of precipitation annual maxima for Texas

The objective of this Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) cooperatively funded project was to develop a simple-to-use atlas of precipitation depths in Texas for selected storm durations and frequencies on the basis of the research results and unpublished digital archives of Asquith (1998). The selected storm durations are 15 and 30 minutes; 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 hours; and 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7 days. The selected storm frequencies or annual recurrence intervals are 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. Depth-duration frequency (DDF) of annual precipitation maxima is important for cost-effective, risk-mitigated hydrologic design. DDF values are in common and wide-spread use by public and private entities throughout Texas.

Texas Department of Transportation Project Summary↗

USGS2009

Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

USGS2020

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

Sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2016

Climate regulates alpine lake ice cover phenology and aquatic ecosystem structure

High-elevation aquatic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, yet relatively few records are available to characterize shifts in ecosystem structure or their underlying mechanisms. Using a long-term dataset on seven alpine lakes (3126 to 3620 m) in Colorado, USA, we show that ice-off dates have shifted seven days earlier over the past 33 years and that spring weather conditions – especially snowfall – drive yearly variation in ice-off timing. In the most well-studied lake, earlier ice-off associated with increases in water residence times, thermal stratification, ion concentrations, dissolved nitrogen, pH, and chlorophyll-a. Mechanistically, low spring snowfall and warm temperatures reduce summer stream flow (increasing lake residence times) but enhance melting of glacial and permafrost ice (increasing lake solute inputs). The observed links among hydrological, chemical, and biological responses to climate factors highlight the potential for major shifts in the functioning of alpine lakes due to forecasted climate change.

Colorado↗

USGS2009

Methodology for an integrative assessment of China's ecological restoration programs

While research projects have been conducted to examine the impacts and effectiveness of China's ecological restoration programs, few of them represent integrated, systematic efforts. The objective of this chapter is thus to articulate and outline a methodology for an integrative assessment, which, we believe, should embrace both the environmental and socioeconomic changes and engage investigations at multiple scales. Further, these investigations should be pursued through interdisciplinary collaboration with expertise from ecology, economics, hydrology, and geospatial, climate, and land change sciences. We argue that the deployment of geospatial capability, the use of longitudinal data, and the connection between science and policy should be the hallmarks of an integrative assessment. We also describe our general approach and specific models to quantify the environmental and socioeconomic impacts induced by implementing the restoration programs, and address the issue of how to overcome the challenges in generating the data needed for executing various empirical tasks. We hope that the adoption and application of this methodology will make a valuable contribution to a more robust and timely assessment as well as implementation of the ecological restoration programs in and outside of China.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Snowmelt-triggered earthquake swarms at the margin of Long Valley Caldera, California

Fluids are well known to influence earthquakes, yet rarely are earthquakes convincingly linked to precipitation. Weak modulation or limited data often leads to ambiguous interpretations. In contrast, here we find that shallow seismicity in the Sierra Nevada range near Long Valley Caldera is strongly modulated by snowmelt. Over 33 years, shallow seismicity rates were ~37 times higher during very wet periods versus very dry periods. Relative earthquake relocations from a swarm in 2017 reveal downward migration from ~1- to 3-km depth along a steeply inclined plane. Steeply dipping strata may provide high-permeability pathways and faulting plane. Here we combine the correlated seismicity and hydrologic time series with the propagation observed in the relatively relocated earthquakes. From this combined evidence, we infer that pressure diffusion from groundwater recharge dramatically accelerated shallow seismicity rates, causing seismic swarms unrelated to volcanic processes.

California↗

USGS2026

Spatial heterogeneity of salt marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise: Dual controls of hydrological setting and salinity regime

Salt marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise (SLR) is typically assessed using point measurements of vertical accretion, neglecting three-dimensionality of geomorphic evolution and spatial variability. Recent studies suggest links between vertical and horizontal vulnerability, with differences between oligohaline and polyhaline marshes, yet these relationships remain untested in estuary-marsh systems. Here we combine geospatial analysis with hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate how unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratio (UVVR), a metric of marsh degradation, relates to elevation across hydrological regions and salinity regimes in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System, the largest lagoonal estuary in U.S. We show that at given normalized elevation, UVVR decreases across hydrological regions and salinity regimes from offshore to inland. UVVR-elevation relationship varies systematically with both hydrological setting and salinity regime, with hydrology exerting stronger influence. These findings challenge the assumption of a universal marsh deterioration trajectory and underscore the need to account for spatial heterogeneity when predicting responses to SLR.

North Carolina↗

USGS2008

Climate-induced variations of geyser periodicity in Yellowstone National Park, USA

The geysers of Yellowstone National Park, United States, attract millions of visitors each year, and their eruption dynamics have been the subject of extensive research for more than a century. Although many of the fundamental aspects associated with the dynamics of geyser eruptions have been elucidated, the relationship between external forcing (Earth tides, barometric pressure, and precipitation) and geyser eruption intervals (GEIs) remains a matter of ongoing debate. We present new instrumental GEI data and demonstrate, through detailed time-series analysis, that geysers respond to both long-term precipitation trends and to the seasonal hydrologic cycle. Responsiveness to long-term trends is reflected by a negative correlation between the annual averages of GEIs and stream flow in the Madison River. This response is probably associated with long-term pressure changes in the underlying hydrothermal reservoir. We relate seasonal GEI lengthening to snowmelt recharge.

Geology↗

USGS2010

Seasonal and Spatial Distribution of Freshwater Flow and Salinity in the Ten Thousand Islands Estuary, Florida, 2007-2009

The watershed of the Ten Thousand Islands (TTI) estuary has been substantially altered through the construction of canals and roads for the Southern Golden Gate Estates (SGGE), Barron River Canal, and U.S. 41 (Tamiami Trail). Two restoration projects designed to improve freshwater delivery to the estuary are the Picayune Strand Restoration Project, which includes the Southern Golden Gate Estates, and the Tamiami Trail Culverts Project; both are part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. To address hydrologic information needs critical for monitoring the effects of these restoration projects, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a study in October 2006 to characterize freshwater outflows from the rivers, internal circulation and mixing within the estuary, and surface-water exchange between the estuary and Gulf of Mexico. The effort is conducted in cooperation with the South Florida Water Management District and complemented by monitoring performed by the Rookery Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. Surface salinity was measured during moving boat surveys using a flow-through system that operated at planing speeds averaging 20 miles per hour. The data were logged every 10 seconds by a data recorder that simultaneously logged location information from a Global Positioning System. The major rivers, bays, and nearshore Gulf of Mexico region of the TTI area were surveyed in approximately 5 hours by two boats traversing about 200 total miles. Salinity and coordinate data were processed using inverse distance weighted interpolation to create salinity contour maps of the entire TTI region. Ten maps were created from salinity surveys performed between May 2007 and May 2009 and illustrate the dry season, transitional, and wet season salinity patterns of the estuarine rivers, inner bays, mangrove islands, and Gulf of Mexico boundary. The effects of anthropogenic activities are indicated by exceptionally low salinities associated with point discharge into the estuary from the Faka Union Canal and Barron River during the wet season. Low salinities in Faka Union Bay may cause reduced diversity and density of submerged aquatic vegetation, fish, and benthic organisms compared with neighboring Fakahatchee Bay. The Faka Union Canal System reduced the size of the watershed for the western TTI estuary, resulting in increased wet season salinities compared to those for the eastern TTI estuary, the watershed of which is composed of the relatively pristine Fakahatchee Strand Preserve State Park. Minimal river discharge and high evaporation caused hypersaline conditions to develop throughout the entire TTI region during the dry season. The 2007-2008 drought and passage of Tropical Storm Fay on August 18-19, 2008, demonstrated the effects of seasonal rainfall on salinity patterns, with substantially higher salinities observed during the 2007 wet season compared to those for the 2008 wet season. The salinity maps, coupled with data from the monitoring stations, provide baseline information of seasonal and spatial distribution of freshwater flow and salinity in the TTI estuary, and a means of monitoring the effects of restoration in improving freshwater delivery to the estuary.

Data Series↗

USGS2006

Results of analyses of the fungicide Chlorothalonil, its degradation products, and other selected pesticides at 22 surface-water sites in five Southern states, 2003-04

In accordance with the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Toxic Substances Hydrology Program, a pesticide study was conducted during 2003–04 to determine the occurrence of the fungicide chlorothalonil and its degradation products at 22 surface-water sites in five Southern States. Water-quality samples were collected during the peanut-growing season (June–September) in 2003. During the peanut-growing season in 2004, samples were collected after large storms. An analytical method was developed at the USGS Organic Geochemistry Research Laboratory in Lawrence, Kansas, to measure chlorothalonil and its degradation products by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (LC/MS). Chlorothalonil was detected in 4 of the 113 surface-water samples. The primary degradation product of chlorothalonil, 4-hydroxy-chlorothalonil, was detected in 26 of the 113 samples with concentrations ranging from 0.002 to 0.930 microgram per liter. The chlorothalonil degradation products, 1-amide-4-hydroxy-chorothalonil and 1,3-diamide-chlorothalonil, were detected in one water sample each at 0.020 and 0.161 microgram per liter, respectively. The USGS Methods and Research Development Group, Lakewood, Colorado, developed a custom method for chlorothalonil using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) in an effort to achieve a lower laboratory reporting level (LRL) than the USGS National Water-Quality Laboratory (NWQL) schedule 2060, which analyzes the compound chlorothalonil at a LRL of 0.035 µg/L. The group succeeded in achieving a lower GC/MS reporting level of 0.01 µg/L. Chlorothalonil was detected in 5 of 68 water samples analyzed using the custom GC/MS method, whereas chlorothalonil was detected in 2 of 21 water samples analyzed using NWQL schedule 2060. In addition to analysis of chlorothalonil and its degradation products, samples were analyzed using the USGS NWQL schedules 2001 and 2060 for about 114 pesticides and their degradation products. Samples also were analyzed for dissolved organic carbon, suspended sediment, and percentage of silt- and clay-sized particles. Overall, it was found that chlorothalonil was detected only infrequently and at relatively low concentrations. Chlorothalonil’s major degradation product, 4-hydroxy-chlorothalonil, was detected most frequently, occurred generally at higher concentrations in water samples than did the parent fungicide, and the data from this study reaffirmed that it is the dominant degradation product of chlorothalonil in the peanut-growing environment.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1996

Meeting summary - Coastal meteorology and oceanography: Report of the third prospectus development team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and NSF

U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) prospectus development teams (PDTs) are small groups of scientists that are convened by the USWRP lead scientist on a one-time basis to discuss critical issues and to provide advice related to future directions of the program. PDTs are a principal source of information for the Science Advisory Committee, which is a standing committee charged with the duty of making recommendations to the Program Office based upon overall program objectives. PDT-1 focused on theoretical issues, and PDT-2 on observational issues; PDT-3 is the first of several to focus on more specialized topics. PDT-3 was convened to identify forecasting problems related to U.S. coastal weather and oceanic conditions, and to suggest likely solution strategies. There were several overriding themes that emerged from the discussion. First, the lack of data in and over critical regions of the ocean, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer, and the upper-ocean mixed layer were identified as major impediments to coastal weather prediction. Strategies for data collection and dissemination, as well as new instrument implementation, were discussed. Second, fundamental knowledge of air-sea fluxes and boundary layer structure in situations where there is significant mesoscale variability in the atmosphere and ocean is needed. Companion field studies and numerical prediction experiments were discussed. Third, research prognostic models suggest that future operational forecast models pertaining to coastal weather will be high resolution and site specific, and will properly treat effects of local coastal geography, orography, and ocean state. The view was expressed that the exploration of coupled air-sea models of the coastal zone would be a particularly fruitful area of research. PDT-3 felt that forecasts of land-impacting tropical cyclones, Great Lakes-affected weather, and coastal cyclogenesis, in particular, would benefit from such coordinated modeling and field efforts. Fourth, forecasting for Arctic coastal zones is limited by our understanding of how sea ice forms. The importance of understanding air-sea fluxes and boundary layers in the presence of ice formation was discussed. Finally, coastal flash flood forecasting via hydrologic models is limited by the present accuracy of measured and predicted precipitation and storm surge events. Strategies for better ways to improve the latter were discussed.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2011

Fate of 4-nonylphenol and 17β-estradiol in the Redwood River of Minnesota

The majority of previous research investigating the fate of endocrine-disrupting compounds has focused on single processes generally in controlled laboratory experiments, and limited studies have directly evaluated their fate and transport in rivers. This study evaluated the fate and transport of 4-nonylphenol, 17β-estradiol, and estrone in a 10-km reach of the Redwood River in southwestern Minnesota. The same parcel of water was sampled as it moved downstream, integrating chemical transformation and hydrologic processes. The conservative tracer bromide was used to track the parcel of water being sampled, and the change in mass of the target compounds relative to bromide was determined at two locations downstream from a wastewater treatment plant effluent outfall. In-stream attenuation coefficients ( k stream ) were calculated by assuming first-order kinetics (negative values correspond to attenuation, whereas positive values indicate production). Attenuation of 17β-estradiol ( k stream = −3.2 ± 1.0 day –1 ) was attributed primarily due to sorption and biodegradation by the stream biofilm and bed sediments. Estrone ( k stream = 0.6 ± 0.8 day –1 ) and 4-nonylphenol ( k stream = 1.4 ± 1.9 day –1 ) were produced in the evaluated 10-km reach, likely due to biochemical transformation from parent compounds (17β-estradiol, 4-nonylphenolpolyethoxylates, and 4-nonyphenolpolyethoxycarboxylates). Despite attenuation, these compounds were transported kilometers downstream, and thus additive concentrations from multiple sources and transformation of parent compounds into degradates having estrogenic activity can explain their environmental persistence and widespread observations of biological disruption in surface waters.

Minnesota↗

USGS2020

Flood-frequency estimation for very low annual exceedance probabilities using historical, paleoflood, and regional information with consideration of nonstationarity

Streamflow estimates for floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.001 or lower are needed to accurately portray risks to critical infrastructure, such as nuclear powerplants and large dams. However, extrapolating flood-frequency curves developed from at-site systematic streamflow records to very low annual exceedance probabilities (less than 0.001) results in large uncertainties in the streamflow estimates. Traditionally, methods for statistically estimating flood frequency have relied on the systematic streamflow record, which provides a time series of annual maximum flood peaks, often including some historical peaks. However, most peak-flow records are less than 100 years, and uncertainties are large when trying to extrapolate magnitudes of very low annual exceedance probability events. Other data may be available that extend the record beyond the systematic dataset. Historical data are defined as data from outside the period of systematic records but within the period of human records. Examples of historical information include flood estimates from other agencies and newspaper accounts that can be translated to flood magnitude point estimates, interval estimates, or perception thresholds (such as a statement that an 1880 flood was the largest since 1869). Paleoflood data, which may also extend the dataset, include a broad range of information about flood occurrence or magnitude from sources like sediment deposits or tree rings. Several assumptions are made in flood-frequency analysis, and an understanding of whether the data conform to these assumptions is desired. A particularly difficult assumption to evaluate for flood-frequency analysis is the underlying assumption that the flood series is stationary—the assumption that a time series of peak flow varies around a constant mean within a particular range of values (constant variance). As the hydrologic community’s understanding of natural systems and anthropogenic effects on streamflows has evolved, the community has come to understand that many surface-water systems exhibit one or more forms of nonstationarity, and thus the stationarity assumption is often violated to some degree. However, there is currently (2020) no consensus among hydrologists regarding the most appropriate flood-frequency-analysis methods for nonstationary systems, and this topic remains an active area of research. A literature review was completed to summarize the state of the science of flood frequency. The literature review highlights tools available to detect nonstationarities and identifies approaches that include external information to inform flood-frequency analysis. To demonstrate methods for initial data analysis and for incorporating historical and paleoflood information in flood-frequency analysis, five sites were selected: the Red River of the North at James Avenue Pumping Station, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; lower reach, Rapid Creek, South Dakota; Spring Creek, South Dakota; Cherry Creek near Melvin, Colorado; and Escalante River near Escalante, Utah. The sites were chosen for the availability of published historical and paleoflood data and for their geographic diversity and unique characteristics, which highlighted issues such as autocorrelation, change points, trends, outlier peaks, or short periods of record. An initial data analysis that involved examining records for autocorrelation, change points, and trends was completed for all sites. The flood-frequency analysis completed for this study used version 7.2 of the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. Multiple analyses were done on each site documenting the change in the flood-frequency curve when additional historical or paleoflood data were added. When other flood-frequency studies were available, their results were compared to the results here. The comparisons in some cases simply show the effect of additional years of data, whereas other comparisons show results from probability distributions or fitting methods other than those used in PeakFQ. For the Red River of the North, flood-frequency analysis shows that paleoflood data appear necessary to reasonably estimate very low annual exceedance probabilities. For the analysis of the lower reach of Rapid Creek and Spring Creek, paleoflood information helped put a high outlier from the systematic period in context; however, very low annual exceedance probabilities at these sites still had extraordinarily large confidence bounds. These sites also showed that paleoflood information might be transferred from one site to another, with the caveat that this is a case where we had existing paleoflood data to test the transfer of paleoflood information—this is not the case at many sites, and transferring paleoflood information requires assumptions about the comparability of floods at the sites. The Cherry Creek analysis affirmed the result of an earlier study that showed that the generalized Pareto distribution was not a good distribution for estimating very low annual exceedance probabilities. The Escalante River analysis showed that adding paleoflood information might increase uncertainty for very low annual exceedance probabilities, compared to analysis with the systematic period of record information only, when the paleoflood peaks are of much larger magnitudes than the systematic record.

Scientific Investigations Report↗