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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources
USGS2021

A probabilistic framework to model distributions of VS30

The time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m depth from the ground surface, or V S 30 "> V S 30 ⁠ , is often used as a predictor to describe local site effects in ground‐motion models. Although V S 30 "> V S 30 is typically determined from in situ measurements, it is not always feasible to obtain such measurements due to project restrictions or site accessibility. This motivates the development and use of proxy‐based V S 30 "> V S 30 predictions that leverage more readily available secondary information such as surface geology, topographic slope, or geomorphic terrain classes to estimate the mean V S 30 "> V S 30 and associated uncertainty. Traditionally, empirical distributions of V S 30 "> V S 30 have been observed to have long right tails, leading to high levels of associated uncertainty. In this study, we present a physical framework that is grounded in fundamental principles of geostatistics and probability to explain the uncertainty and skewness associated with V S 30 "> V S 30 measurements. Specifically, by invoking Lyapunov’s central limit theorem, we hypothesize that the distribution of V S 30 "> V S 30 can be theoretically approximated by a reciprocal–normal distribution. We show that a non‐normal and skewed distribution of V S 30 "> V S 30 is to be expected and is not a sign of measurement error or sampling bias, although sampling bias can exaggerate such skewness. Our framework also enables us to propose the mode as a characteristic value of V S 30 "> V S 30 measurements, as opposed to the mean or median, which can overestimate the most probable value.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2024

Noise constraints on global body‐wave measurement thresholds

Intermediate sized earthquakes (≈ M 4–6.5) are often measured using the teleseismic body‐wave magnitude ( ⁠𝑚b⁠ ). 𝑚b measurements are especially critical at the lower end of this range when teleseismic waveform modeling techniques (i.e., moment tensor analysis) are difficult. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) determines the location and magnitude of all M 5 and greater earthquakes worldwide within 20 min of the rupture time, and therefore accurate 𝑚b magnitude estimates are essential to fulfill its mission. To better understand how network geometry and noise levels affect the global response capabilities, we developed a method to spatially estimate the minimum measurable 𝑚b⁠ . To do this, we compare expected 𝑚b amplitudes at every station to the station’s background noise level. We find that using NEIC’s current network geometry and these idealized thresholds, NEIC can potentially estimate 𝑚b magnitudes down to M 4.5 globally. Low‐latitude regions in the Southern Hemisphere present the biggest opportunity to improve monitoring capabilities. However, logistically they also present the biggest hurdles for network operators. Finally, to test the resiliency of the network we removed the 20 most important stations and found the 𝑚b threshold remains 𝑚b 4.5. However, the region where only 𝑚b 4.5 and greater can be estimated increases and is again restricted to the Southern Hemisphere.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part II: Simulation of long-period and broadband ground motions

We simulate long-period ( T> 1.0–2.0 s) and broadband ( T> 0.1 s) ground motions for 39 scenario earthquakes ( M w 6.7–7.2) involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. For rupture on the Hayward fault, we consider the effects of creep on coseismic slip using two different approaches, both of which reduce the ground motions, compared with neglecting the influence of creep. Nevertheless, the scenario earthquakes generate strong shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area, with about 50% of the urban area experiencing modified Mercalli intensity VII or greater for the magnitude 7.0 scenario events. Long-period simulations of the 2007 M w 4.18 Oakland earthquake and the 2007 M w 5.45 Alum Rock earthquake show that the U.S. Geological Survey’s Bay Area Velocity Model version 08.3.0 permits simulation of the amplitude and duration of shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area for Hayward fault earthquakes, with the greatest accuracy in the Santa Clara Valley (San Jose area). The ground motions for the suite of scenarios exhibit a strong sensitivity to the rupture length (or magnitude), hypocenter (or rupture directivity), and slip distribution. The ground motions display a much weaker sensitivity to the rise time and rupture speed. Peak velocities, peak accelerations, and spectral accelerations from the synthetic broadband ground motions are, on average, slightly higher than the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations. We attribute much of this difference to the seismic velocity structure in the San Francisco Bay area and how the NGA models account for basin amplification; the NGA relations may underpredict amplification in shallow sedimentary basins. The simulations also suggest that the Spudich and Chiou (2008) directivity corrections to the NGA relations could be improved by increasing the areal extent of rupture directivity with period.

California↗
USGS2022

Seismometer records of ground tilt induced by debris flows

A change in surface loading causes the Earth’s surface to deform. Mass movements, such as debris flows, can cause a tilt large enough to be recorded by nearby instruments, but the signal is strongly dependent on the mass loading and subsurface parameters. Specifically designed sensors for such measurements (tiltmeters) are cumbersome to install. Alternatively, broadband seismometers record translational motion and also tilt signals, often at periods of tens to hundreds of seconds. Their horizontal components are thereby the most sensitive to tilt. In this study, we show how to obtain tilt caused by the passing by of debris flows from seismic measurements recorded within tens of meters of the flow and investigate the usefulness of this signal for flow characterization. We investigate the problem on three scales (1) large‐scale laboratory experiments at the U.S. Geological Survey debris‐flow flume, where broadband seismometers and tiltmeters were installed for six 8 – 10    m 3 "> 8 – 10 m 3 experiments, (2) the Illgraben torrent in Switzerland, one of the most active mass wasting sites in the European Alps, where a broadband seismometer placed within a few meters of the channel recorded 15 debris‐flow events with volumes up to 10 5    m 3 "> 10 5 m 3 ⁠ , and (3) Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala, where a broadband seismometer recorded two lahars. We investigate how the tilt signals compare to debris‐flow parameters such as mean normal stresses, usually measured by expensive force plates, and debris‐flow height. We model the elastic ground deformation as the response of an elastic half‐space to a moving surface load. In addition, we use the model with some simplifications to determine the maximum debris‐flow heights of Volcán de Fuego events, where no force plate measurements are available. Finally, we address how and under what assumptions the relatively affordable and straightforward tilt measurements may be utilized to infer debris‐flow parameters, as opposed to force plates and other complicated instrument setups.

Oregon↗
USGS2016

Continuity of the West Napa–Franklin fault zone inferred from guided waves generated by earthquakes following the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa Earthquake

We measure peak ground velocities from fault‐zone guided waves (FZGWs), generated by on‐fault earthquakes associated with the 24 August 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake. The data were recorded on three arrays deployed across north and south of the 2014 surface rupture. The observed FZGWs indicate that the West Napa fault zone (WNFZ) and the Franklin fault (FF) are continuous in the subsurface for at least 75 km. Previously published potential‐field data indicate that the WNFZ extends northward to the Maacama fault (MF), and previous geologic mapping indicates that the FF extends southward to the Calaveras fault (CF); this suggests a total length of at least 110 km for the WNFZ–FF. Because the WNFZ–FF appears contiguous with the MF and CF, these faults apparently form a continuous Calaveras–Franklin–WNFZ–Maacama (CFWM) fault that is second only in length (∼300 km) to the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay area. The long distances over which we observe FZGWs, coupled with their high amplitudes (2–10 times the S waves) suggest that strong shaking from large earthquakes on any part of the CFWM fault may cause far‐field amplified fault‐zone shaking. We interpret guided waves and seismicity cross sections to indicate multiple upper crustal splays of the WNFZ–FF, including a northward extension of the Southhampton fault, which may cause strong shaking in the Napa Valley and the Vallejo area. Based on travel times from each earthquake to each recording array, we estimate average P ‐, S ‐, and guided‐wave velocities within the WNFZ–FF (4.8–5.7, 2.2–3.2, and 1.1–2.8 km/s, respectively), with FZGW velocities ranging from 58% to 93% of the average S ‐wave velocities.

California↗
USGS1992

On the characteristics of local geology and their influence on ground motions generated by the Loma Prieta earthquake in the San Francisco Bay region, California

Strong ground motions recorded at 34 sites in the San Francisco Bay region from the Loma Prieta earthquake show marked variations in characteristics dependent on crustal structure and local geological conditions. Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity inferred for sites underlain by “rock” generally occur on the transverse component of motion. They are consistently greater with lower attenuation rates than the corresponding mean value predicted by empirical curves based on previous strong-motion data. Theoretical amplitude distributions and synthetic seismograms calculated for 10-layer models suggest that “bedrock” motions were elevated due in part to the wide-angle reflection of S energy from the base of a relatively thin (25 km) continental crust in the region. Characteristics of geologic and geotechnical units as currently mapped for the San Francisco Bay region show that average ratios of peak horizontal acceleration, velocity and displacement increase with decreasing mean shear-wave velocity. Ratios of peak acceleration for sites on “soil” (alluvium, fill/Bay mud) are statistically larger than those for sites on “hard rock” (sandstone, shale, Franciscan Complex). Spectral ratios establish the existence of predominant site periods with peak amplifications near 15 for potentially damaging levels of ground motion at some sites underlain by alluvium and fill/bay mud. Average spectral amplifications inferred for vertical and the mean horizontal motion are, respectively, (1,1) for sites on the Franciscan Complex (KJf), (1.4, 1.5) for sites on Mesozoic and Tertiary rocks (TMzs), (2.1, 2.0) for sites on the Santa Clara Formation (QTs), (2.3, 2.9) for sites on alluvium (Qal), and (2.1, 4.0) for sites on fill/Bay mud (Qaf/Qhbm). These mean values are not statistically different at the 5% significance level from those inferred from previous low-strain data. Analyses suggest that soil amplification and reflected crustal shear energy were major contributors to levels of ground motion sufficient to cause damage to vulnerable structures at distances near 100 km in the cities of San Francisco and Oakland.

California↗
USGS2014

Relation of landslides triggered by the Kiholo Bay earthquake to modeled ground motion

The 2006 Kiholo Bay, Hawaii, earthquake triggered high concentrations of rock falls and slides in the steep canyons of the Kohala Mountains along the north coast of Hawaii. Within these mountains and canyons a complex distribution of landslides was triggered by the earthquake shaking. In parts of the area, landslides were preferentially located on east‐facing slopes, whereas in other parts of the canyons no systematic pattern prevailed with respect to slope aspect or vertical position on the slopes. The geology within the canyons is homogeneous, so we hypothesize that the variable landslide distribution is the result of localized variation in ground shaking; therefore, we used a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution ground‐motion simulation model to see if it could reproduce the landslide‐distribution patterns. We used a 3D finite‐element analysis to model earthquake shaking using a 10 m digital elevation model and slip on a finite‐fault model constructed from teleseismic records of the mainshock. Ground velocity time histories were calculated up to a frequency of 5 Hz. Dynamic shear strain also was calculated and compared with the landslide distribution. Results were mixed for the velocity simulations, with some areas showing correlation of landslide locations with peak modeled ground motions but many other areas showing no such correlation. Results were much improved for the comparison with dynamic shear strain. This suggests that (1) rock falls and slides are possibly triggered by higher frequency ground motions (velocities) than those in our simulations, (2) the ground‐motion velocity model needs more refinement, or (3) dynamic shear strain may be a more fundamental measurement of the decoupling process of slope materials during seismic shaking.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2014

Using surface creep rate to infer fraction locked for sections of the San Andreas fault system in northern California from alignment array and GPS data

Surface creep rate, observed along five branches of the dextral San Andreas fault system in northern California, varies considerably from one section to the next, indicating that so too may the depth at which the faults are locked. We model locking on 29 fault sections using each section’s mean long‐term creep rate and the consensus values of fault width and geologic slip rate. Surface creep rate observations from 111 short‐range alignment and trilateration arrays and 48 near‐fault, Global Positioning System station pairs are used to estimate depth of creep, assuming an elastic half‐space model and adjusting depth of creep iteratively by trial and error to match the creep observations along fault sections. Fault sections are delineated either by geometric discontinuities between them or by distinctly different creeping behaviors. We remove transient rate changes associated with five large (M≥5.5) regional earthquakes. Estimates of fraction locked, the ratio of moment accumulation rate to loading rate, on each section of the fault system provide a uniform means to inform source parameters relevant to seismic‐hazard assessment. From its mean creep rates, we infer the main branch (the San Andreas fault) ranges from only 20%±10% locked on its central creeping section to 99%–100% on the north coast. From mean accumulation rates, we infer that four urban faults appear to have accumulated enough seismic moment to produce major earthquakes: the northern Calaveras (M 6.8), Hayward (M 6.8), Rodgers Creek (M 7.1), and Green Valley (M 7.1). The latter three faults are nearing or past their mean recurrence interval.

California↗
USGS2024

Rapid estimation of single-station earthquake magnitudes with machine learning on a global scale

The foundation of earthquake monitoring is the ability to rapidly detect, locate, and estimate the size of seismic sources. Earthquake magnitudes are particularly difficult to rapidly characterize because magnitude types are only applicable to specific magnitude ranges, and location errors propagate to substantial magnitude errors. We developed a method for rapid estimation of single‐station earthquake magnitudes using raw three‐component P waveforms observed at local to teleseismic distances, independent of prior size or location information. We used the MagNet regression model architecture ( Mousavi and Beroza, 2020b ), which combines convolutional and recurrent neural networks. We trained our model using ∼2.4 million P ‐phase arrivals labeled by the authoritative magnitude assigned by the U.S. Geological Survey. We tested input data parameters (e.g., window length) that could affect the performance of our model in near‐real‐time monitoring applications. At the longest waveform window length of 114 s, our model (Artificial Intelligence Magnitude [AIMag]) is accurate (median estimated magnitude within ±0.5 magnitude units from catalog magnitude) between M 2.3 and 7.6. However, magnitudes above M ∼7 are more underestimated as true magnitude increases. As the windows are shortened down to 1 s, the point at which higher magnitudes begin to be underestimated moves toward lower magnitudes, and the degree of underestimation increases. The over and underestimation of magnitudes for the smallest and largest earthquakes, respectively, are potentially related to the limited number of events in these ranges within the training data, as well as magnitude saturation effects related to not capturing the full source time function of large earthquakes. Importantly, AIMag can determine earthquake magnitudes with individual stations’ waveforms without instrument response correction or knowledge of an earthquake’s source‐station distance. This work may enable monitoring agencies to more rapidly recognize large, potentially tsunamigenic global earthquakes from few stations, allowing for faster event processing and reporting. This is critical for timely warnings for seismic‐related hazards.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

On the composition of earth's short-period seismic noise field

In the classic microseismic band of 5-20 sec, seismic noise consists mainly of fundamental mode Rayleigh and Love waves; however, at shorter periods seismic noise also contains a significant amount of body-wave energy and higher mode surface waves. In this study we perform a global survey of Earth's short-period seismic noise field with the goal of quantifying the relative contributions of these propagation modes. We examined a year's worth of vertical component data from 18 seismic arrays of the International Monitoring System that were sited in a variety of geologic environments. The apertures of the arrays varied from 2 to 28 km, constraining the periods we analyzed to 0.25-2.5 sec. Using frequency-wavenumber analysis we identified the apparent velocity for each sample of noise and classified its mode of propagation. The dominant component was found to be L g , occurring in about 50% of the noise windows. Because L g does not propagate across ocean-continent boundaries, this energy is most likely created in shallow water areas near coastlines. The next most common component was P-wave energy, which accounted for about 28% of the noise windows. These were split between regional P waves (P n =P g at 6%), mantle bottoming P waves (14%), and core-sensitive waves (PKP at 8%). This energy is mostly generated in deep water away from coastlines, with a region of the North Pacific centered at 165?? W and 40?? N being especially prolific. The remainder of the energy arriving in the noise consisted of R g waves (28%), a large fraction of which may have a cultural origin. Hence, in contrast to the classic micro-seismic band of 5-20 sec, at shorter periods fundamental mode Rayleigh waves are the least significant component.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

A stochastic estimate of ground motion at Oceano, California, for the M 6.5 22 December 2003 San Simeon earthquake, derived from aftershock recordings

The U.S. Geological Survey deployed a digital seismic station in Oceano, California, in February 2004, to investigate the cause of damage and liquefaction from the 22 December 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake. This station recorded 11 M > 2.8 aftershocks in almost 8 weeks. We analyze these recordings, together with recordings of the mainshock and the same aftershocks obtained from nearby stations in Park Hill and San Luis Obispo, to estimate the mainshock ground motion in Oceano. We estimate the Fourier amplitude spectrum using generalized spectral ratio analysis. We test a set of aftershocks as Green's functions by comparing simulated and recorded acceleration amplitude spectra for the mainshock at San Luis Obispo and Park Hill. We convolve the aftershock accelerograms with a stochastic operator to simulate the duration and phase of the mainshock accelerograms. This approximation allows us to extend the range of aftershocks that can be used as Green's functions to events nearly three magnitude units smaller than the mainshock. Our realizations for the mainshock accelerogram at Oceano yield peak ground accelerations distributed as 28% ?? 4%g. We interpret these realizations as upper bounds for the actual ground motion, because our analysis assumes a linear response, whereas the presence of liquefaction indicates that the ground behaved nonlinearly in Oceano.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2010

Tsunami simulations of the 1867 Virgin Island earthquake: Constraints on epicenter location and fault parameters

The 18 November 1867 Virgin Island earthquake and the tsunami that closely followed caused considerable loss of life and damage in several places in the northeast Caribbean region. The earthquake was likely a manifestation of the complex tectonic deformation of the Anegada Passage, which cuts across the Antilles island arc between the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. In this article, we attempt to characterize the 1867 earthquake with respect to fault orientation, rake, dip, fault dimensions, and first tsunami wave propagating phase, using tsunami simulations that employ high-resolution multibeam bathymetry. In addition, we present new geophysical and geological observations from the region of the suggested earthquake source. Results of our tsunami simulations based on relative amplitude comparison limit the earthquake source to be along the northern wall of the Virgin Islands basin, as suggested by Reid and Taber (1920) , or on the carbonate platform north of the basin, and not in the Virgin Islands basin, as commonly assumed. The numerical simulations suggest the 1867 fault was striking 120°–135° and had a mixed normal and left-lateral motion. First propagating wave phase analysis suggests a fault striking 300°–315° is also possible. The best-fitting rupture length was found to be relatively small (50 km), probably indicating the earthquake had a moment magnitude of ∼7.2. Detailed multibeam echo sounder surveys of the Anegada Passage bathymetry between St. Croix and St. Thomas reveal a scarp, which cuts the northern wall of the Virgin Islands basin. High-resolution seismic profiles further indicate it to be a reasonable fault candidate. However, the fault orientation and the orientation of other subparallel faults in the area are more compatible with right-lateral motion. For the other possible source region, no clear disruption in the bathymetry or seismic profiles was found on the carbonate platform north of the basin.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2003

Salton Trough regional deformation estimated from combined trilateration and survey-mode GPS data

The Salton Trough in southeastern California, United States, has one of the highest seismicity and deformation rates in southern California, including 20 earthquakes M 6 or larger since 1892. From 1972 through 1987, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measured a 41-station trilateration network in this region. We remeasured 37 of the USGS baselines using survey - mode Global Positioning System methods from 1995 through 1999. We estimate the Salton Trough deformation field over a nearly 30-year period through combined analysis of baseline length time series from these two datasets. Our primary result is that strain accumulation has been steady over our observation span, at a resolution of about 0.05 μstrain/yr at 95% confidence, with no evidence for significant long-term strain transients despite the occurrence of seven large regional earthquakes during our observation period. Similar to earlier studies, we find that the regional strain field is consistent with 0.5 ± 0.03 μstrain/yr total engineering shear strain along an axis oriented 311.6° ± 23° east of north, approximately parallel to the strike of the major regional faults, the San Andreas and San Jacinto (all uncertainties in the text and tables are standard deviations unless otherwise noted). We also find that (1) the shear strain rate near the San Jacinto fault is at least as high as it is near the San Andreas fault, (2) the areal dilatation near the southeastern Salton Sea is significant, and (3) one station near the southeastern Salton Sea moved anomalously during the period 1987.95-1995.11.

California↗
USGS2006

Modeling and validation of a 3D velocity structure for the Santa Clara Valley, California, for seismic-wave simulations

A 3D seismic velocity and attenuation model is developed for Santa Clara Valley, California, and its surrounding uplands to predict ground motions from scenario earthquakes. The model is developed using a variety of geologic and geophysical data. Our starting point is a 3D geologic model developed primarily from geologic mapping and gravity and magnetic surveys. An initial velocity model is constructed by using seismic velocities from boreholes, reflection/refraction lines, and spatial autocorrelation microtremor surveys. This model is further refined and the seismic attenuation is estimated through waveform modeling of weak motions from small local events and strong-ground motion from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Waveforms are calculated to an upper frequency of 1 Hz using a parallelized finite-difference code that utilizes two regions with a factor of 3 difference in grid spacing to reduce memory requirements. Cenozoic basins trap and strongly amplify ground motions. This effect is particularly strong in the Evergreen Basin on the northeastern side of the Santa Clara Valley, where the steeply dipping Silver Creek fault forms the southwestern boundary of the basin. In comparison, the Cupertino Basin on the southwestern side of the valley has a more moderate response, which is attributed to a greater age and velocity of the Cenozoic fill. Surface waves play a major role in the ground motion of sedimentary basins, and they are seen to strongly develop along the western margins of the Santa Clara Valley for our simulation of the Loma Prieta earthquake.

California↗
USGS2023

Applications of nonergodic site response models to ShakeAlert case studies in the Los Angeles area

In this study, we explore whether the Parker and Baltay (2022) site response models for the Los Angeles (LA) basin region can improve ground‐motion forecasts in the U.S. Geological Survey ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system (hereafter ShakeAlert). We implement the peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity site response models of Parker and Baltay (2022) in ShakeAlert via the earthquake information to ground‐motion (hereafter eqinfo2GM) module, which predicts ground motions from the estimated earthquake parameters of magnitude, rupture length, and location. The nonergodic site response models for the greater LA area were developed using ground motions from 414 M 3–7.3 earthquakes in southern California. We test nonergodic ground‐motion forecasts for five earthquakes in the LA area: the 1994 M 6.7 Northridge earthquake, the 2008 M 5.4 Chino Hills earthquake, the 2019 M 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake, the 2020 M 4.5 South El Monte earthquake, and a synthetic M 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault from the ShakeOut scenario, which was the basis of a statewide emergency response exercise. From the test results, we find that with the nonergodic site response applied, ShakeAlert not only alerts larger areas but can also result in longer warning times in LA region. In addition, the modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) ground‐motion predictions generated by the ShakeAlert eqinfo2GM module are improved in accuracy when compared with the corresponding ShakeMap ground‐truth MMI when the nonergodic site response model is applied.

California↗
USGS2015

Basement and regional structure along strike of the Queen Charlotte Fault in the context of modern and historical earthquake ruptures

The Queen Charlotte fault (QCF) is a dextral transform system located offshore of southeastern Alaska and western Canada, accommodating ∼4.4  cm/yr of relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Oblique convergence along the fault increases southward, and how this convergence is accommodated is still debated. Using seismic reflection data, we interpret offshore basement structure, faulting, and stratigraphy to provide a geological context for two recent earthquakes, an M w 7.5 strike‐slip event near Craig, Alaska, and an M w 7.8 thrust event near Haida Gwaii, Canada. We map downwarped Pacific oceanic crust near 54° N, between the two rupture zones. Observed downwarping decreases north and south of 54° N, parallel to the strike of the QCF. Bending of the Pacific plate here may have initiated with increased convergence rates due to a plate motion change at ∼6  Ma. Tectonic reconstruction implies convergence‐driven Pacific plate flexure, beginning at 6 Ma south of a 10° bend the QCF (which is currently at 53.2° N) and lasting until the plate translated past the bend by ∼2  Ma. Normal‐faulted approximately late Miocene sediment above the deep flexural depression at 54° N, topped by relatively undeformed Pleistocene and younger sediment, supports this model. Aftershocks of the Haida Gwaii event indicate a normal‐faulting stress regime, suggesting present‐day plate flexure and underthrusting, which is also consistent with reconstruction of past conditions. We thus favor a Pacific plate underthrusting model to initiate flexure and accommodation space for sediment loading. In addition, mapped structures indicate two possible fault segment boundaries along the QCF at 53.2° N and at 56° N.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Simulations of earthquakes in California with multiple velocity models

Estimating seismic hazard using 3D earthquake simulations of moderate‐to‐large magnitude events is becoming a reality. In this study, we further this endeavor by simulating seismic wavefields for five earthquakes in California, United States, and evaluating their pseudospectral acceleration at periods of 2, 5, and 10 s. We compare results from the recently developed U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Crustal Model with three well‐established and validated regional community velocity models (CVMs): two CVMs for Southern California (CVMS4.26.M01 and CVMH15.1.0) and the USGS San Francisco Bay region 3D CVM. A minimum shear‐wave velocity of 500 m/s is imposed in all four of the velocity models. We use finite‐difference calculations to simulate the earthquakes and specify a grid and timestep capable of resolving periods down to 1 s. For our simulations, we find that for each earthquake, the available velocity models produce broadly similar amplitudes and patterns of earthquake ground motions. Use of the 3D velocity models generally perform better than ergodic ground‐motion models, and variability in the results between earthquakes may indicate a combination of factors including uncertainty in earthquake magnitude and source parameterization, signal‐to‐noise ratio in the observed time series, and the lack of fault damage zones, topography, and other features in the computational seismic velocity models. Of particular note, we find that for most cases, averaging the ground motions for all available velocity models outperforms the ground‐motion results from any single velocity model. Our results indicate that the 3D models considered in this study can be sufficiently independent and have enough predictive power that their combination could be used to improve estimates of earthquake ground motions.

California↗
USGS1998

Global teleseismic earthquake relocation with improved travel times and procedures for depth determination

We relocate nearly 100,000 events that occurred during the period 1964 to 1995 and are well-constrained teleseismically by arrival-time data reported to the International Seismological Centre ( ISC ) and to the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center ( NEIC ). Hypocenter determination is significantly improved by using, in addition to regional and teleseismic P and S phases, the arrival times of PKiKP, PKPdf , and the teleseismic depth phases pP, pwP , and sP in the relocation procedure. A global probability model developed for later-arriving phases is used to independently identify the depth phases. The relocations are compared to hypocenters reported in the ISC and NEIC catalogs and by other sources. Differences in our epicenters with respect to ISC and NEIC estimates are generally small and regionally systematic due to the combined effects of the observing station network and plate geometry regionally, differences in upper mantle travel times between the reference earth models used, and the use of later-arriving phases. Focal depths are improved substantially over most other independent estimates, demonstrating (for example) how regional structures such as downgoing slabs can severely bias depth estimation when only regional and teleseismic P arrivals are used to determine the hypocenter. The new data base, which is complete to about Mw 5.2 and includes all events for which moment-tensor solutions are available, has immediate application to high-resolution definition of Wadati-Benioff Zones ( WBZ s) worldwide, regional and global tomographic imaging, and other studies of earth structure.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗