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USGS2024

Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision-making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide authoritative earthquake forecasts based on current earthquake activity in near-real time. Establishing OEF systems involves several nontrivial choices. This review captures the current state of OEF worldwide and analyzes expert recommendations on the development, testing, and communication of earthquake forecasts. An introductory summary of OEF-related research is followed by a description of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States. Combined, these two parts provide an informative and transparent snapshot of today's OEF landscape. In Section 4, we analyze the results of an expert elicitation that was conducted to seek guidance for the establishment of OEF systems. The elicitation identifies consensus and dissent on OEF issues among a non-representative group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts. While the experts agree that communication products should be developed in collaboration with the forecast user groups, they disagree on whether forecasting models and testing methods should be user-dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged. Section 5 gives an outlook on the future of OEF. Besides covering recent research on earthquake forecasting model development and testing, upcoming OEF initiatives are described in the context of the expert elicitation findings.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2026

Dynamic coupling between faulting, rifting and magmatism during 2021-2025 unrest on Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland

Interactions among faulting, earthquakes, and eruptions are fundamental to plate tectonics and hazard forecasting yet rarely observed along mid-ocean ridges. On Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, seismotectonic–volcanic unrest resumed after nearly 800-year hiatus, providing an opportunity to observe these interactions during 2021–2025 activity. By integrating high-resolution seismicity, focal mechanisms, satellite geodesy, surface deformation, and eruption data, we document ∼4 m of total extension accommodated through 14 rifting episodes. The largest, in 2023, involved graben reactivation and diking, with seismic swarms and earthquake faulting that matched the surface ruptures, where strike-slip faulting preceded normal-faulting earthquakes and extension. The accrued extension was released by extension fractures triggered by magma accumulation. Long-term observations show no correlation between erupted magma volume, seismicity, and crustal extension. This highlights dynamic relation between rifting, faulting, and magmatism in transtensional settings and their implications for hazard assessment.

Reykjanes Peninsula↗
USGS2026

Spatial variation in effectiveness and costs of sagebrush restoration treatments across the western United States

Natural resource managers strive to improve restoration efficiency across the vast network of public lands of the United States, seeking the best return on investment through innovation, geographic prioritization, and adaptive management. This challenge is exemplified by ecosystems dominated by sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), which occur across the western United States and have been degraded by increasing wildfire frequency driven by invasive plant spread, among other factors. However, both costs and effectiveness of sagebrush restoration can vary spatially due to management practices in addition to biotic and abiotic factors, and characterizing this variation could inform broad-scale planning. We leveraged published models of sagebrush recovery and treatment costs to predict and evaluate cost-effectiveness of aerial and drill seeding Artemisia spp. across 429 718 km 2 that overlapped 12 US states. Compared to natural recovery, effectiveness for both methods was generally low, yet effectiveness was often greater, and costs were always greater, for drill than aerial seeding, resulting in slightly higher cost-effectiveness on average for drill seeding. Cost-effectiveness for both treatments increased near major roads and in areas with more repeated burns. Cost-effectiveness also increased with predisturbance cover of sagebrush but decreased with herbaceous cover. However, we also identified areas where aerial seeding was more cost-effective than drill seeding, particularly with greater slope. Our results provide spatially explicit estimates and potential mechanisms of cost-effectiveness for two common seeding methods for sagebrush, which can help prioritize limited resources, guide land use, and improve restoration efficiency and effectiveness across public rangelands of the western United States.

western United States↗
USGS2026

Special issue “The 2024 M7.6 Noto Peninsula earthquake and seismic swarm”

The 2024 Mw7.5 (M JMA 7.6) Noto Peninsula earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula, central Japan on January 1, 2024, causing widespread damage. This Mw7.5 mainshock, together with the prolonged seismic swarm that persisted in the northeastern Noto Peninsula since the end of 2020, of which the largest event was the 2023 M JMA 6.5 earthquake, constitutes one of the most significant seismic sequences in Japan in recent decades. The sequence provides a rare opportunity to investigate the complex interplay among swarm activity, fluid migration, fault geometry and distribution, and the preparatory conditions required for a large inland crustal earthquake. Motivated by this scientific context, this special issue brings together studies examining the sequence from diverse disciplinary perspectives, incorporating seismic, geodetic, and tsunami-related observations and modelling.

Noto Peninsula↗
USGS2026

Satellite tracking of Galapagos Petrel Pterodroma phaeopygia reveals distribution and movements during chick rearing

We tracked 19 adult Galapagos Petrels Pterodroma phaeopygia during the chick-rearing seasons in 2009 and 2010 (Santa Cruz Island [ n = 16] and Floreana Island [ n = 3]) in the Galápagos Islands, Ecuador. Eight petrels performed 27 complete foraging trips lasting 0.6 to 18.8 days. Short trips (3.2 ± 2.1 days; 785 km; max displacement 671 km) and long trips (10.8 ± 3.9 days; 2,856 km; max displacement 1,034 km) resulted in concentrated use of waters off southern and western Isabela Island and within the Galápagos Marine Reserve (GMR). Less concentrated time extended farther southwest and eastward, in that case toward mainland Ecuador. Total distance covered among all completed trips, independent of duration, was strongly correlated with trip duration ( R ² = 0.92), indicating a strategy favoring active searching and foraging over commuting. Petrels ranged across Ecuador's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), as well as other countries' (Colombia, Costa Rica, Perú), and waters beyond; they spent 46%, 27%, and 34% of their time in the GMR during short, long, and apparent (incomplete) trips, respectively. However, overlap with EEZs or marine protected areas (MPAs) does not necessarily confer protection, because commercial tuna fishing, including legal fishing historically permitted inside the GMR, occurs within these waters. Including all complete and incomplete trips, petrels spent 37% of their time in high-seas waters without formal protection, outside both MPAs and EEZs. While some hot spots overlapped Galápagos MPAs, the far-ranging nature of chick-provisioning petrels underscores the importance for this species of also having coordinated, multinational protection of the high seas.

Floreana Island, Galápagos Islands, Santa Cruz Isl↗
USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. This work is part of that reexamination. The stationarity assumption is a concern because flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This report summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2026

The value of electronic tagging and tracking studies for understanding fish–hypoxia interactions

Objective Hypoxia (i.e., low dissolved oxygen availability) is a natural phenomenon but can also be induced by human activities (e.g., nutrient enrichment from runoff). Given that dissolved oxygen is essential for aquatic life, periods of hypoxia tend to have negative consequences (e.g., sublethal disturbances, mortality) for most fishes. Extensive laboratory research has documented hypoxia thresholds and physiological and behavioral outcomes for a variety of freshwater and marine fishes and there is also an extensive body of fieldwork assessing population-level responses (e.g., survival, distribution). Yet, studying how individual fish respond to hypoxia in the wild has proved challenging; electronic tagging and tracking tools (e.g., biotelemetry, biologging) have made it easier to study individual responses to hypoxia and complement other tools like hydroacoustics that tend to focus on population-level responses. Methods We review what has been learned from contemporary studies that employ electronic tagging and tracking tools to understand how fish respond to hypoxia in the wild. Topics explored include identifying and validating hypoxia thresholds, habitat compression, connectivity, mortality, physiological and bioenergetic consequences, and extreme weather conditions. We also consider what we have learned about evaluating various management plans for hypoxia and reflect on how electronic tags have also been used in aquaculture systems and in hybrid studies that combine laboratory and field research. We highlight fishes in Lake Erie as a research narrative to demonstrate how electronic tagging and tracking have markedly improved our understanding of a longstanding hypoxia issue. Results Our synthesis revealed that electronic tagging and tracking have provided critical information on how fish respond to hypoxia in the field, revealing complex trade-offs and compensatory mechanisms as well as cryptic hypoxia-induced mortality. Beyond just illuminating space use and mortality, tags equipped with various sensors are revealing how fish deal with hypoxia in real time in terms of physiology, bioenergetics, and behavior. Conclusions As electronic tagging and tracking methods experience further innovation and are increasingly applied to understand the effects of hypoxia on fish, we expect more unanticipated findings about the effects of hypoxia on fish in all aquatic ecosystems, which will strengthen our ability to manage and mitigate hypoxia. Combining tools and approaches (e.g., lab and field) is perhaps the best way to generate comprehensive understanding.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2026

A three-dimensional geologic framework model of the northern Great Plains region of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, USA

This report presents a new three-dimensional geologic framework model (GFM) of the northern Great Plains region, encompassing parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. The model provides a regionally consistent, geographic information system (GIS)-ready representation of Phanerozoic sedimentary strata, major fault systems, and Precambrian basement geometry across two sedimentary basins and adjacent uplifts. More than 300,000 geologic and geophysical data inputs were synthesized to model 41 stratigraphic horizons and 47 faults, yielding an internally coherent, sealed-volume interpretation of the subsurface. The modeling workflow developed for this study demonstrates an efficient and scalable approach for constructing basin-to regional-scale GFMs in geologically complex and data-variable settings. Although model fidelity varies with data density and quality, the resulting geometry is broadly consistent with 1:500,000-scale geologic mapping and highlights areas where additional geologic study is most needed. The three-dimensional GFM provides a foundational framework to support groundwater, energy, and mineral resource assessments, and offers a transferable methodology for potential future U.S. Geological Survey efforts to build large-area subsurface models in underexplored regions of the United States.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Stepovers and beyond: Structural control of The Geysers geothermal system and the broader Clear Lake region

Fault geometry exerts a first-order control on geothermal systems by governing stress localization, fracture development, and permeability, yet in complex fault networks or broader shear zones, the relative influence of individual geometric features is often difficult to resolve. In the northern California Coast Ranges, The Geysers geothermal field is commonly interpreted to occur within a releasing stepover, although no single, clearly defined stepover is identified in published studies. To investigate the structural controls on The Geysers and the broader Clear Lake region, a two-dimensional elastic boundary element model is developed to evaluate spatial patterns of dilational strain associated with progressively more complete fault geometries. Model results show that dilation in the region is not controlled by a single structure but instead reflects the combined effects of multiple interacting fault elements. Three primary controls are identified: (1) opposing bends in the regional strike-slip fault system, including a releasing bend along the Maacama fault; (2) the southern fault tip of the Collayomi fault, which generates a prominent dilational lobe beneath the southern Geysers; and (3) a releasing stepover between the Collayomi fault and the Geyser Peak–Mercuryville–Big Sulphur Creek fault system, inferred to collectively behave as a right-lateral shear zone bounding the western margin of The Geysers. Predicted dilational strain magnitudes are sufficient to localize permeability between faults. These results highlight that incorporating complete fault networks and bedrock geological mapping can enhance geothermal assessments and provide a transferable framework for evaluating structurally controlled permeability in tectonically active regions.

California↗
USGS2025

Kiloyear cycles of carbonate and Mg-silicate replacement at Von Damm hydrothermal vent field

The Von Damm vent field (VDVF) on the Mid-Cayman Rise in the Caribbean Sea is unique among modern hydrothermal systems in that the chimneys and mounds are almost entirely composed of talc. We analyzed samples collected in 2020 and report that in addition to disordered talc of variable crystallinity, carbonates are a major class of mineral at VDVF. The carbonate minerals include aragonite, calcite, magnesium-rich calcite, and dolomite. Talc and carbonate mineral textures indicate that, rather than replacing volcanic host rock, they precipitate from the mixing of hydrothermal fluids and seawater at the seafloor, occurring in chimneys and surrounding rubble. Alternating precipitation of this mineral assemblage is pervasive, with carbonate minerals typically being succeeded by talc, and with indications that in some cases talc and carbonate minerals replace one another. Stable carbon isotopic data indicate the carbonate minerals originate from the mixing of seawater and hydrothermal fluid, which is supported by U-Th data. Radiocarbon calcite ages and talc 234 U- 230 Th isochron ages indicate mineral ages spanning over thousands to tens of thousands of years. Analyses of these samples illustrate a dynamic system that transitions from carbonate-dominated to Mg-silicate−dominated precipitation over time scales of thousands of years. Our observations raise questions regarding the eventual fate of seafloor precipitates and whether carbonate and silicate minerals in such settings are sequestered and represented in the rock record.

Geology↗
USGS2026

Streamflow, base-flow, and precipitation trends and simulated effects of groundwater withdrawals from the North Fork Red River aquifer on base flows upgradient from Lake Altus, western Oklahoma, 1980–2022

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, used five scenarios created from a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model (1980–2013) and historical streamflow records (1980–2022) to investigate the relation between groundwater withdrawals from the North Fork Red River aquifer and inflows to Lake Altus from the North Fork Red River in western Oklahoma. The five scenarios were (1) a scaled-equal-proportionate-share (EPS) groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (2) a study-area-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (3) a zonal-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (4) a historical drought-threshold scenario, and (5) a base-flow and evapotranspiration depletion scenario. For the scaled-EPS groundwater-withdrawal scenario, EPS groundwater withdrawals were often much higher than reported groundwater withdrawals and greatly decreased base flows for most scale factors. For the study-area-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, base flows were reduced more but by smaller percentages during wet periods than during dry periods when scaling simulated reported groundwater withdrawals. For the zonal-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, scaling simulated reported groundwater withdrawals within selected zones with more groundwater withdrawals did not always affect base flows more than scaling reported groundwater withdrawals within zones with less groundwater withdrawals. For the historical drought-threshold scenario, curtailing groundwater withdrawals at the drought thresholds increased annual base flows to Lake Altus by about 1,169 to 3,665 acre-feet. For the base-flow and evapotranspiration depletion scenario, the distance between a groundwater well and a stream was a major factor affecting base flow to the North Fork Red River when increasing groundwater withdrawals; however, spatially variable hydrologic properties and saturated-zone evapotranspiration could also affect the relation between base flows and groundwater withdrawals.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2026

Emergent headwater types for watershed monitoring, research, and planning

Headwaters—that is headwater streams and the watersheds they drain—strongly influence water quality, ecosystem services, and hydrologic connectivity, yet remain poorly mapped, monitored, and understood at large spatial scales. Using available spatial data to classify headwater “types” could therefore enhance the utility of sparse monitoring data to advance research and watershed planning—and help update literature-based perceptual models of headwaters as steep, forested, and minimally disturbed watersheds. Here, we analyze headwaters across the contiguous United States to quantify how their attributes (climate, topography, land cover, soils) vary regionally and differ from their downstream watersheds. Our analysis (a) identified seven dominant headwater types with distinct combinations of biophysical and climatic attributes and (b) revealed systematic contrasts with downstream watersheds, with strongest differences in attributes representing potential flowpath depth. Our findings offer a transferable framework for classifying, modeling, and managing these critical yet understudied components of the hydrologic network.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Melt generation sources and conditions in the wake of a migrating slab window: Geochemistry and petrology of the million-year history of primitive volcanism at Clear Lake volcanic field, California

Clear Lake volcanic field (CLVF) is the northernmost and youngest (~2.2 Ma to 8 ka) of the volcanic centers distributed along the San Andreas transform fault in western California. The initial phase of CLVF volcanism (interval one) occurred between ~2.2 and 1.3 Ma and extends ~35 km southeast of Clear Lake, forming a semi-continuous upland plateau capped by lava flows, with isolated volcanic remnants on the periphery. This volcanism is broadly characterized by geochemically primitive compositions that reflect three source compositions and conditions of melt generation. (1) Partial melting of upwelling asthenospheric mantle lherzolite at moderate pressures (1.2–1.4 GPa) and temperatures (1297–1329 °C) produced high-CaO (9.8–11.3 wt %) basalts with high Al 2 O 3 (16.8–17.6 wt %), Mg#s (66–70), MgO (8–10 wt %), Ni (103–262 μg/g), and Cr (284–609 μg/g). These high-CaO basalts contain olivine (Fo 87–91 ) phenocrysts with Cr-spinel inclusions ± subordinate plagioclase and crop out only in the southern part of the CLVF. (2) Partial melting of depleted sub-continental lithospheric mantle harzburgite at variable pressures (0.7–1.5 GPa) and temperatures (1097–1299 °C) produced a compositional continuum of med-K 2 O, calc-alkaline, high-MgO basalts through high-MgO andesites with high Mg#s (67–77), MgO (8–14 wt %) and high Ni and Cr abundances (154–439 and 340–1124 μg/g, respectively). Mineral assemblages are olivine (Fo 88–93 ) with Cr-spinel inclusions ± subordinate clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene and plagioclase. Small (<2.5 cm) mantle harzburgite xenoliths and mantle olivine xenocrysts are also found in several of these samples. These high-MgO basalts through andesites represent the largest volume of primitive compositions and have erupted predominantly along the main, fault-controlled northwest-southeast trending axis of volcanism with peripheral outcrops to the north, west, and east. (3) Partial melting of the Gorda eclogite slab edge produced adakitic silicic slab melts with strong depletion in the heavy rare earth elements (Yb = 0.6 μg/g). Subsequent reaction of those melts with depleted ultramafic rocks during ascent imprinted the adakitic dacites with high Mg#s (65–78) and elevated Ni (117–210 μg/g) and Cr (191–283 μg/g). Phenocrysts of orthopyroxene (En 87–94 ) with spinel inclusions (Cr# = 80–88) and extremely Ni-rich (9483 μg/g) olivine cores (Fo 84–93 ) record those reactions. Small-volume outcrops of the adakites on the eastern periphery of the CLVF track the passing slab edge. The trio of melting sources recorded by early CLVF magmatism reflect the tectonically complex environment and the hot (1097–1329 °C), shallow (0.7–1.5 GPa) melting conditions for these primitive compositions and provide estimates of the heat delivered to the crust. Over time, this flux led to maturation of the CLVF magmatic system toward the more voluminous and silicic volcanism that characterizes the balance of its subsequent volcanic history and maintains the present-day anomalously high heat flow in the region. The current interval (interval four) of volcanic activity at CLVF is characterized by low-volume, fault-controlled eruptions of basaltic andesite and andesite suggestive of mantle magma and heat delivery to the crust, similar to interval one. This analogous activity provides motivation for the current study and begs the question of whether the system is undergoing thermal priming for renewed silicic volcanism.

California↗
USGS2024

Potential climate and human water-use effects on water-quality trends in a semiarid, western U.S. watershed: Fountain Creek, Colorado, USA

Nutrients, total dissolved solids (TDS), and trace elements affect the suitability of water for human and natural needs. Here, trends in such water-quality constituents are analyzed for 1999–2022 for eight nested monitoring sites in the 24,000 km 2 Fountain Creek watershed in Colorado, USA, by using the weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season (WRTDS) methodology. Fountain Creek shares characteristics with other western U.S. watersheds: (1) an expanding but more water-efficient population, (2) a heavy reliance on imported water, (3) a semiarid climate trending towards warmer and drier conditions, and (4) shifts of water from agricultural to municipal uses. The WRTDS analysis found both upward and downward trends in the concentrations of nutrients that reflected possible shifts in effluent management, instream uptake, and water conservation by a watershed population that grew by about 40%. Selenium, other trace elements, and TDS can pose water-quality challenges downstream and their concentrations were found to have a downwards trend. Those trends could be driven by either a warming and drying of the local climate or decreased agricultural irrigation, as both would reduce recharge and subsequent mobilization from natural geologic sources via groundwater discharge. The patterns illustrate how changes in climate and water use may have affected water quality in Fountain Creek and demonstrate the patterns to look for in other western watersheds.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Quaternary-active faults and the role of inherited structures in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, western Central Valley, northern California

Seismic sources and their associated hazards within the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region of north-central California are relatively poorly characterized as compared to other, more heavily studied regions of northern California, such as the San Francisco Bay Area. Here we present a synthesis of subsurface, bedrock geology, and geodetic datasets from the Delta and from the Coast Ranges and Diablo Range to the northwest and southwest, respectively. We integrate these data and our own surface geologic and geomorphic observations to present a comprehensive review of faults in the Delta that exhibit Quaternary activity. Structural geologic data from the surrounding region highlight the significant influence that Late Cretaceous-to-Paleogene forearc structures exert on the geometry and kinematics of major Quaternary-active structures within the Delta. These inherited structures — including the Pittsburg-Kirby Hills Fault, Midland Fault, and Great Valley Fault System — exhibit a range of geometries and kinematics. Analysis of geomorphology along these structures suggests that these structures combine to accommodate Quaternary strain across the Delta region. A clearer understanding of subsurface geometries and structural relationships, built upon the regional tectonic history, provides insight into modern deformation accommodated on older structures and helps inform interpretations of seismic hazard within the Delta.

California↗