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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Canopy gap dynamics of second-growth red spruce-northern hardwood stands in West Virginia

Forest restoration requires an understanding of the natural disturbance regime of the target community and estimates of the historic range of variability of ecosystem components (composition, structure, and disturbance processes). Management prescriptions that support specific restoration activities should be consistent with these parameters. In this study, we describe gap-phase dynamics of even-aged, second-growth red spruce-northern hardwood stands in West Virginia that have been significantly degraded following early Twentieth Century harvesting and wildfire. In the current stage of stand development, gaps tended to be small, with mean canopy gap and extended canopy gap sizes of 53.4m2 and 199.3m2, respectively, and a canopy turnover rate of 1.4%year-1. The majority of gaps resulted from the death of one or two trees. American beech snags were the most frequent gap maker, partially due to the elevated presence of beech-bark disease in the study area. Gaps ranged in age from 1 to 28 years, had a mean of 13 years, and were unimodal in distribution. We projected red spruce to be the eventual gap filler in approximately 40% of the gaps. However, we estimated that most average-sized gaps will close within 15-20 years before red spruce canopy ascension is projected (30-60 years). Accordingly, many understory red spruce will require more than one overhead release - an observation verified by the tree-ring record and consistent with red spruce life history characteristics. Based on our observations, silvicultural prescriptions that include overhead release treatments such as thinning from above or small gap creation through selection harvesting could be an appropriate activity to foster red spruce restoration in the central Appalachians. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2009

Age, differential growth and mortality rates in unexploited populations of Florida gar, an apex predator in the Florida Everglades

Florida gar, Lepisosteus platyrhincus DeKay, were sampled in two canal systems in south Florida during 2000-2001 to estimate age, growth and mortality as part of the Everglades ecosystem-restoration effort. Tamiami (C-4) and L-31W canal systems had direct connections to natural wetlands of the Everglades and harboured large Florida gar populations. Of 476 fish aged, maximum ages were 19 and 10years for females and males, respectively. Maximum sizes were also larger for females compared with males (817 vs 602 mm total length). Overall, female Florida gar from both Tamiami and L-31W were larger at age than males from L-31W that, in turn, were larger at any given age than males from Tamiami. Females also had lower rates of annual mortality (Z = 0.21) than males from L-31W (Z = 0.31) or males from Tamiami (Z = 0.54). As a large and long-lived apex predator in the Everglades, Florida gar may structure lower trophic levels. Regional- and sex-specific population parameters for Florida gar will contribute to the simulation models designed to evaluate Everglades restoration alternatives. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Fisheries Management and Ecology↗

USGS2021

Harnessing landscape genomics to identify future climate resilient genotypes in a desert annual

Local adaptation features critically in shaping species responses to changing environments, complicating efforts to revegetate degraded areas. Rapid climate change poses an additional challenge that could reduce fitness of even locally sourced seeds in restoration. Predictive restoration strategies that apply seeds with favourable adaptations to future climate may promote long‐term resilience. Landscape genomics is increasingly used to assess spatial patterns in local adaption and may represent a cost‐efficient approach for identifying future‐adapted genotypes. To demonstrate such an approach, we genotyped 760 plants from 64 Mojave Desert populations of the desert annual Plantago ovata . Genome scans on 5,960 SNPs identified 184 potentially adaptive loci related to climate and satellite vegetation metrics. Causal modelling indicated that variation in potentially adaptive loci was not confounded by isolation by distance or isolation by habitat resistance. A generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) attributed spatial turnover in potentially adaptive loci to temperature, precipitation and NDVI amplitude, a measure of vegetation green‐up potential. By integrating a species distribution model (SDM), we find evidence that summer maximum temperature may both constrain the range of P. ovata and drive adaptive divergence in populations exposed to higher temperatures. Within the species’ current range, warm‐adapted genotypes are predicted to experience a fivefold expansion in climate niche by midcentury and could harbour key adaptations to cope with future climate. We recommend eight seed transfer zones and project each zone into its relative position in future climate. Prioritizing seed collection efforts on genotypes with expanding future habitat represents a promising strategy for restoration practitioners to address rapidly changing climates.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2023

Ecological harm and economic damages of chemical contamination to linked aquatic-terrestrial food webs: A study-design tool for practitioners

Contamination of aquatic ecosystems can have cascading effects on terrestrial consumers by altering the availability and quality of aquatic insect prey. Comprehensive assessment of these indirect food-web effects of contaminants on natural resources and their associated services necessitates using both ecological and economic tools. In the present study we present an aquatic-terrestrial assessment tool (AT2), including ecological and economic decision trees, to aid practitioners and researchers in designing contaminant effect studies for linked aquatic-terrestrial insect-based food webs. The tool is tailored to address the development of legal claims by the US Department of the Interior's Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration Program, which aims to restore natural resources injured by oil spills and hazardous substance releases into the environment. Such cases require establishing, through scientific inquiry, the existence of natural resource injury as well as the determination of the monetary or in-kind project-based damages required to restore this injury. However, this tool is also useful to researchers interested in questions involving the effects of contaminants on linked aquatic-terrestrial food webs. Stylized cases exemplify how application of AT2 can help practitioners and researchers design studies when the contaminants present at a site are likely to lead to injury of terrestrial aerial insectivores through loss of aquatic insect prey and/or dietary contaminant exposure. Designing such studies with ecological endpoints and economic modeling inputs in mind will increase the relevance and cost-effectiveness of studies, which can in turn improve the outcomes of cases and studies involving the ecological effects of contaminants on food webs.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2018

Evaluating the conservation potential of tributaries for native fishes in the Upper Colorado River Basin

We explored the conservation potential of tributaries in the upper Colorado River basin by modeling native fish species richness as a function of river discharge, temperature, barrier‐free length, and distance to nearest free‐flowing main‐stem section. We investigated a historic period prior to large‐scale water development and a contemporary period. In the historic period, species richness was log‐linearly correlated to variables capturing flow magnitude, particularly mean annual discharge. In the contemporary period, the log‐linear relationship between discharge and species richness was still evident but weaker. Tributaries with lower average temperature and separated from free‐flowing main‐stem sections often had fewer native species compared to tributaries with similar discharge but with warmer temperature and directly connected to free‐flowing main stems. Thus, tributaries containing only a small proportion of main‐stem discharge, especially those at lower elevations with warmer temperatures and connected to free‐flowing main stems, can support a relatively high species richness. Tributaries can help maintain viable populations by providing ecological processes disrupted on large regulated rivers, such as natural flow and temperature regimes, and may present unique conservation opportunities. Efforts to improve fish passage, secure environmental flows, and restore habitat in these tributaries could greatly contribute to conservation of native fish richness throughout the watershed.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2017

Interactive effects of water temperature and salinity on growth and mortality of eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica: A meta-analysis using 40 years of monitoring data

Despite nearly a century of exploitation and scientific study, predicting growth and mortality rates of the eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) as a means to inform local harvest and management activities remains difficult. Ensuring that models reflect local population responses to varying salinity and temperature combinations requires locally appropriate models. Using long-term (1988 to 2015) monitoring data from Louisiana's public oyster reefs, we develop regionally specific models of temperature- and salinity-driven mortality (sack oysters only) and growth for spat (<25 mm), seed (25–75 mm), and sack (>75 mm) oyster size classes. The results demonstrate that the optimal combination of temperature and salinity where Louisiana oysters experience reduced mortality and fast growth rates is skewed toward lower salinities and higher water temperatures than previous models have suggested. Outside of that optimal range, oysters are commonly exposed to combinations of temperature and salinity that are correlated with high mortality and reduced growth. How these combinations affect growth, and to a lesser degree mortality, appears to be size class dependent. Given current climate predictions for the region and ongoing large-scale restoration activities in coastal Louisiana, the growth and mortality models are a critical step toward ensuring sustainable oyster reefs for long-term harvest and continued delivery of the ecological services in a changing environment.

Louisiana↗

USGS2016

Contaminants in urban waters—Science capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey

Streams and estuaries with urban watersheds commonly exhibit increased streamflow and decreased base flow; diminished stream-channel stability; excessive amounts of contaminants such as pesticides, metals, industrial and municipal waste, and combustion products; and alterations to biotic community structure. Collectively, these detrimental effects have been termed the “urban-stream syndrome.” Water-resource managers seek to lessen the effects on receiving water bodies of new urban development and remediate the effects in areas of existing urbanization. Similarly, the scientific community has produced extensive research on these topics, with researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) leading many studies of urban streams and the processes responsible for the urban-stream syndrome. Increasingly, USGS studies are evaluating the effects of management and restoration activities to better understand how urban waters respond to the implementation of management practices. The USGS has expertise in collecting and interpreting data for many physical, chemical, and ecological processes in urban waters and, thus, provides holistic assessments to inform managers of urban water resources.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2023

Seven dam challenges for migratory fish: Insights from the Penobscot River

More than a century of impoundments in the Penobscot River, Maine, USA, has contributed to population declines in migratory fish in the system. A decade of change, research, and monitoring has revealed direct and indirect ways that dams have influenced the river habitat, connectivity for migratory fish, and the food web. The removal of two main-stem dams (in 2012 and 2013) and bolstering of fish passage have been part of coordinated restoration efforts in the watershed. Integral to this undertaking was support for short- and long-term monitoring and research that included physical habitat, fish passage, and broad scale ecological assessments. Herein we discuss the seven interconnected and complex ways that dams have affected the Penobscot River ecosystem, particularly for migratory fish. These include familiar influences ascribed to dams: i) impaired access to habitat, ii) injury and mortality, and iii) delays of migration. Other ecological influences are less studied and more subtle: iv) facilitation of predation, v) community shifts, and vi) demographic shifts. Lastly, dams result in vii) a loss of ecosystem services that would otherwise be intact in an unimpounded system. We draw on both direct examples from the Penobscot River and broader information to characterize how impoundments have transformed this ecosystem for more than a century. Recent dam removals and mitigation efforts have reestablished some of these ecological functions.

Maine↗

USGS2021

How many Ciscoes are needed for stocking in the Laurentian Great Lakes?

Historically, Cisco Coregonus artedi and deepwater ciscoes Coregonus spp. were the most abundant and ecologically important fish species in the Laurentian Great Lakes, but anthropogenic influences caused nearly all populations to collapse by the 1970s. Fishery managers have begun exploring the feasibility of restoring populations throughout the basin, but questions regarding hatchery propagation and stocking remain. We used historical and contemporary stock-recruit parameters previously estimated for Ciscoes in Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior, with estimates of age-1 Cisco rearing habitat (broadly defined as total ha ≤ 80 m depth) and natural mortality, to estimate how many fry (5.5 months post-hatch), fall fingerling (7.5 months post-hatch), and age-1 (at least 12 months post-hatch) hatchery-reared Ciscoes are needed for stocking in the Great Lakes to mimic recruitment rates in Lake Superior, a lake that has undergone some recovery. Estimated stocking densities suggested that basin-wide stocking would require at least 0.641-billion fry, 0.469-billion fall fingerlings, or 0.343-billion age-1 fish for a simultaneous restoration effort targeting historically important Cisco spawning and rearing areas in Lakes Huron, Michigan, Erie, Ontario, and Saint Clair. Numbers required for basin-wide stocking were considerably greater than current or planned coregonine production capacity, thus simultaneous stocking in the Great Lakes is likely not feasible. Provided current habitat conditions do not preclude Cisco restoration, managers could maximize the effectiveness of available production capacity by concentrating stocking efforts in historically important spawning and rearing areas, similar to the current stocking effort in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron. Other historically important Cisco spawning and rearing areas within each lake (listed in no particular order) include: (1) Thunder Bay in Lake Huron, (2) Green Bay in Lake Michigan, (3) the islands near Sandusky, Ohio, in western Lake Erie, and (4) the area near Hamilton, Ontario, and Bay of Quinte in Lake Ontario. Our study focused entirely on Ciscoes but may provide a framework for describing future stocking needs for deepwater ciscoes.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2015

Blackbrush ( Coleogyne ramosissima Torr. ): State of our knowledge and future challenges

Covering 130,000 square miles and a wide range of elevations from desert to alpine in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico, the Colorado Plateau has long fascinated researchers. The Colorado Plateau VI provides readers with a plethora of updates and insights into land conservation and management questions currently surrounding the region. The Colorado Plateau VI’s contributors show how new technologies for monitoring, spatial analysis, restoration, and collaboration improve our understanding, management, and conservation of outcomes at the appropriate landscape scale for the Colorado Plateau. The volume’s chapters fall into five major themes: monitoring as a key tool for addressing management challenges, restoration approaches to improving ecosystem condition and function, collaboration and organizational innovations to achieve conservation and management objectives, landscape-scale approaches to understanding, and managing key species and ecological communities. Focusing on the integration of science into resource management issues over the Colorado Plateau, this volume includes contributions from dozens of leading scholars of the region. The Colorado Plateau VI proves a valuable resource to all interested in the conservation management, natural history, and cultural biological resources of the Colorado Plateau.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2010

Puget Sound shorelines and the impacts of armoring: Proceedings of a state of the science workshop, May 2009

The widespread extent and continued construction of seawalls and bulkheads on Puget Sound's beaches has emerged as a significant issue in shoreline management and coastal restoration in the region. Concerns about the impacts of shoreline armoring and managing the potential risks to coastal property are in many ways similar to those in other places, but Puget Sound also poses unique challenges related to its sheltered setting, glacially formed geology, rich estuarine ecology, and historical development pattern. The effects of armoring on shorelines are complex, involving both physical and biological science and requiring consideration of the cumulative impacts of small-scale activities over large scales of space and time. In addition, the issue is controversial, as it often places strongly held private interests in protecting shoreline property against broad public mandates to preserve shorelines for public uses and to protect environmental resources. Communities making difficult decisions about regulating shoreline activities and prioritizing restoration projects need to be informed by the best science available. To address these issues, a scientific workshop was convened in May 2009, specifically to bring local and national experts together to review the state of the science regarding the physical and biological impacts of armoring on sheltered shorelines such as those of Puget Sound.

Washington↗

USGS1999

Freshwater discharge to Florida Bay

The South Florida Ecosystem Program is a collaborative effort by Federal agencies, working with State and local agencies, to help resolve land-use demands and water-supply issues in south Florida. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey in the program is to provide scientific insight into south Florida's hydrology and geology, which are an integral part of the fragile ecosystems of the Everglades, Florida Bay, and the Florida Keys. Historical changes in water-management practices to accommodate a large and rapidly growing urban population along the Atlantic coast, as well as intensive agricultural activities, have resulted in a highly managed hydrologic system with canals, levees, and pumping stations. These structures have altered the hydrology of the Everglades ecosystem, including Florida Bay. Currently, there are plans to change the quantity of water delivered to Everglades National Park and Florida Bay to restore the natural flow of the system. Florida Bay, home to several endangered species, is a valuable breeding ground for marine life and an important recreational and sport fishing area. Florida Bay encompasses about 850 square miles in total area with an average depth of less than 3.5 feet. It is bordered by the mainland portion of Everglades National Park to the north, the Florida Keys to the east and south, and is open to the Gulf of Mexico to the west. During the last decade, Florida Bay has experienced algal blooms and seagrass die-offs which are signals of ecological deterioration that has been attributed to an increase in salinity and nutrient content of bay waters. Salinity and nutrient content are directly related to the amount and quality of freshwater that enters the bay and to flow patterns within the bay. Restoration of the Florida Bay ecosystem requires a better understanding of the linkage between the amount of water and nutrients flowing into the bay and the salinity and quality of the bay environment.

Florida↗

USGS2020

Energy development and production in the Great Plains: Implications and restoration opportunities

Energy is an integral part of society. The major US energy sources of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas); biofuels (ethanol); and wind are concentrated in grassland ecosystems of the Great Plains. As energy demand continues to increase, mounting pressures will be placed on North American grassland systems. In this review, we present the ecological effects of energy development and production on grassland systems. We then identify opportunities to mitigate these effects during the planning, construction, and production phases by using informed methodology and improved technology. Primary effects during energy development include small- and large-scale soil disturbance and vegetation removal as small patches of grasslands are used to host oil or gas wells, wind turbine pads, associated roadways, and pipelines or through the conversion of large grassland areas to biofuel croplands. Direct habitat loss or habitat fragmentation can affect wildlife directly through increased mortality or indirectly through reduction in habitat quantity and quality. During energy production, air and water quality can be affected through regular emissions or unplanned spills. Energy development can also affect the economy and health of local communities. During planning, energy development and production effects can be reduced by carefully considering effects on grasslands during siting and even by selecting different energy source types. During construction, effects on soil and plant systems can be minimized by eliminating weed populations before disturbance, salvaging and stockpiling topsoil for future revegetation, and harvesting native local seed for postsite restoration. During energy production operations, noise and road traffic reduction plans and atmospheric monitoring will enable more informed mitigation measures. Continued research on energy development effects and mitigation measures is necessary to establish best management practices beneficial to grassland health while providing needed energy for the United States.

Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minneso↗

USGS2016

Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of frequency and severity, and depending on the extent to which ecosystems are adapted) may maintain or restore ecosystem functionality; however, in areas that are highly departed from historical fire regimes or where there is disequilibrium between climate and vegetation, ecosystems may be rapidly and persistently altered by wildfires, especially those that burn under extreme conditions.

Idaho↗

USGS2019

Forest restoration, wildfire, and habitat selection by female mule deer

Decades of fire suppression, logging, and overgrazing have led to increased densities of small diameter trees which have been associated with decreases in biodiversity, reduced habitat quality for wildlife species, degraded foraging conditions for ungulates, and more frequent and severe wildfires. In response, land managers are implementing forest restoration treatments using prescribed fire and thinning to mitigate the risk of catastrophic wildfires and improve habitat conditions for a variety of wildlife species. We monitored habitat selection by female mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) in relation to forest restoration treatments and wildfires in northern New Mexico in 2015. Our specific objectives were to assess changes in forage abundance and determine habitat selection patterns of mule deer in relation to recent wildfires, forest restoration treatments, including duration of the post-treatment recovery, and other habitat characteristics. Herbaceous forage biomass was greater in wildfire-burned areas than in untreated areas or those treated with prescribed burns or thinning. Oak forage biomass was greater in wildfire-burned areas compared to prescribed burns, forest thinning, and untreated areas. However, thinned areas tended to have higher oak forage biomass than untreated areas. Mule deer selected for areas burned by prescribed fire and generally avoided wildfire-burned and thinned areas <5 years old. Mule deer strongly selected for thinned areas ≥5 years old. At both the landscape and home-range scale, grasslands were avoided during most seasons, pinyon-juniper woodlands were selected in winter, and oak vegetation and mixed-conifer forests were selected during summer. Our data suggests that mule deer may benefit from recent prescribed burns and older forest thinning, but the duration of post-treatment vegetation recovery influences the strength and direction of selection. Knowledge of the short- and long-term effects of restoration treatments will provide managers with the means to make more informed decisions regarding implementation of forest restoration and other vegetation treatments intended to benefit mule deer.

New Mexico↗

USGS2003

Composition, complexity, and tree mortality in riparian forests in the central Western Cascades of Oregon

Riparian forests contribute to the diversity and function of both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. To assess some of these contributions, we compared tree composition, stand complexity, and temporal patterns of tree mortality on permanent plots in seven mature and old-growth stands representing upland forests and forests along low- and mid-order streams in the Western Cascade Range of Oregon. We also assessed recruitment of large wood into stream channels due to tree mortality, both by direct measurement and by estimation from tree mortality and location data. Stands differed in composition due to both stream order and successional stage. Stands on mid-order streams had high abundance of hardwood trees and/or Thuja plicata . Stand complexity (variability in tree diameters, tree life-form diversity, and tree species diversity), was high in stands on mid-order streams and in the upland, old-growth stand. Tree mortality was exceptionally high in six of the seven stands in 1996, the year in which the largest flood during the study occurred. However, only in the one stand on an unconstrained reach of a mid-order stream was mortality primarily due to flooding. Estimated recruitment of wood was much higher from the stand on the unconstrained reach than from the other stands on mid-order streams, suggesting that unconstrained reaches may be important for efforts to maintain or restore large wood in streams.

Oregon↗

USGS2024

Projecting the long-term effects of large-scale human influence on the spatial and functional persistence of extant longleaf pine ecosystems in the Florida Flatwoods Pyrome

Decades of human activities and fire suppression have adversely affected longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris ) ecosystems, which are home to high levels of diversity and endemism. These iconic ecosystems also now face challenges from urbanization and climate change, which will alter conservation outcomes over the remainder of the 21st century. To explore how long-term, large-scale human influences could affect the spatial and functional persistence of extant longleaf pine ecosystems in the Florida Flatwoods Pyrome, we extracted a set of 2400 longleaf pine patches ≥40 ha in size from the Florida Longleaf Pine Ecosystem Geodatabase. Projections from the FUTURES urban growth model and the Florida 2070 project indicate that development will lead to losses of existing longleaf pine habitat, reductions in longleaf pine patch size, and patches that are predominantly located in close proximity to developed areas. Finer-scale patterns of longleaf pine loss in three focal landscapes highlighted differences in land protection, ecological setting, and development pressure and the value of using of multiple urbanization iterations. The occurrence of suitable conditions to conduct prescribed fires, a crucial tool for maintaining, improving, and restoring longleaf pine ecosystems, is projected to decrease seasonally throughout the study area. As a result, the functional persistence of ecosystems is at risk due to climate changes that increase barriers to the safe and reliable application of intentional fire. The long-term viability of this critical ecosystem will warrant the evaluation of adaptive strategies that explicitly account for the individual and compounding effects of urban development and changing fire management conditions when considering options for ecosystem protection, management, and restoration.

Florida↗

USGS2022

The past, present, and future of coral reef growth in the Florida Keys

Coral-reef degradation is driving global-scale reductions in reef-building capacity and the ecological, geological, and socioeconomic functions it supports. The persistence of those essential functions will depend on whether coral-reef management is able to rebalance the competing processes of reef accretion and erosion. Here, we reconstructed census-based carbonate budgets of 46 reefs throughout the Florida Keys from 1996 to 2019. We evaluated the environmental and ecological drivers of changing budget states and compared historical trends in reef-accretion potential to millennial-scale baselines of accretion from reef cores and future projections with coral restoration. We found that historically, most reefs had positive carbonate budgets, and many had reef-accretion potential comparable to the ~3 mm year −1 average accretion rate during the peak of regional reef building ~7000 years ago; however, declines in reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. corals following a series of thermal stress events and coral disease outbreaks resulted in a shift from positive to negative budgets for most reefs in the region. By 2019, only ~15% of reefs had positive net carbonate production. Most of those reefs were in inshore, Lower Keys patch-reef habitats with low water clarity, supporting the hypothesis that environments with naturally low irradiance may provide a refugia from thermal stress. We caution that our estimated carbonate budgets are likely overly optimistic; comparison of reef-accretion potential to measured accretion from reef cores suggests that, by not accounting for the role of nonbiological physical and chemical erosion, census-based carbonate budgets may underestimate total erosion by ~1 mm year −1 (−1.15 kg CaCO 3 m −2 year −1 ). Although the present state of Florida's reefs is dire, we demonstrate that the restoration of reef-building corals has the potential to help mitigate declines in reef accretion in some locations, which could allow some key ecosystem functions to be maintained until the threat of global climate change is addressed.

Florida↗