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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources
USGS2005

Ground-water/surface-water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas basin, Ventura County, California, 1950-93

Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate-driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM-RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.

California↗
USGS2013

Reconsidering residency: Characterization and conservation implications of complex migratory patterns of shortnose sturgeon ( Acispenser brevirostrum )

Efforts to conserve endangered species usually involve attempts to define and manage threats at the appropriate scale of population processes. In some species that scale is localized; in others, dispersal and migration link demic units within larger metapopulations. Current conservation strategies for endangered shortnose sturgeon ( Acipenser brevirostrum ) assume the species is river resident, with little to no movement between rivers. However we have found that shortnose sturgeon travel more than 130 km through coastal waters between the largest rivers in Maine. Indeed, acoustic telemetry shows that shortnose sturgeon enter six out of the seven acoustically monitored rivers we have monitored, with over 70% of tagged individuals undertaking coastal migrations between river systems. Four migration patterns were identified for shortnose sturgeon inhabiting the Penobscot River, Maine: river resident (28%), spring coastal emigrant (24%), fall coastal emigrant (33%), and summer coastal emigrant (15%). No shortnose sturgeon classified as maturing female exhibited a resident pattern, indicating differential migration. Traditional river-specific assessment and management of shortnose sturgeon could be better characterized using a broader metapopulation scale, at least in the Gulf of Maine, that accounts for diverse migratory strategies and the importance of migratory corridors as critical habitat.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2012

Nearshore morphology, benthic structure, hydrodynamics, and coastal groundwater discharge near Kahekili Beach Park, Maui, Hawaii

This report presents a brief summary of recent fieldwork conducted off Kahekili Beach Park, Maui, Hawaii, the site of the newly established U.S. Coral Reef Task Force priority study area at Kaanapali and the Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources, Division of Aquatic Resources, Kahekili Herbivore Fisheries Management Area (HFMA). The goals of this fieldwork are to provide new baseline information to help guide future studies and to provide first insights into rates and drivers of coastal groundwater discharge and associated constituent loadings into the priority study area's coastal waters. This study presents the first swath acoustic mapping information, in situ oceanographic instrument measurements, and coastal groundwater discharge estimates at this site based on the submarine groundwater discharge tracer radon-222 ( 222 Rn). Coastal groundwater discharge rates ranged from about 22 to 50 centimeters per day, depending on proximity of the sampling mooring to the primary discharge vent. The water chemistry of the discharging groundwater was at times dramatically different than ambient seawater. For example, at the primary vent site at Kahekili, the concentrations of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), dissolved silicate (DSi), and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) in the discharging groundwater were 43.75 micromolar (μM), 583.49 μM, and 12.04 μM, respectively. These data extend our basic understanding of the morphology, benthic structure, and oceanographic setting of this vent site and provide a first estimate of the magnitude and physical forcings of submarine groundwater discharge and associated trace metals and nutrient loads here.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2022

Can coastal habitats rise to the challenge? Resilience of estuarine habitats, carbon accumulation, and economic value to sea-level rise in a Puget Sound estuary

Sea-level rise (SLR) and obstructions to sediment delivery pose challenges to the persistence of estuarine habitats and the ecosystem services they provide. Restoration actions and sediment management strategies may help mitigate such challenges by encouraging the vertical accretion of sediment in and horizontal migration of tidal forests and marshes. We used a process-based soil accretion model (Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model) combined with a habitat classification model (MOSAICS) to estimate the effects of SLR, suspended sediment, and inland habitat migration on estuarine habitats, soil carbon accumulation, and economic value of climate change mitigation of carbon accumulation (social cost of carbon dioxide) in a macrotidal estuary in the northwest USA over 100 years (2011 to 2110). Under present-day sediment levels, we projected that after 100 years, most high salt marsh would remain with < 100 cm SLR, but substantial area converted to transitional (low) salt marsh and mudflat with ≥ 100 cm SLR. Increasing sediment availability increased the projected resilience of transitional salt marsh to SLR but did not prevent declines in high marsh area. Projected total carbon accumulation plateaued or declined with ≥ 100 cm SLR, yet the economic value of carbon accumulation continued to rise over time, suggesting that the value of this ecosystem service was resilient to SLR. Doubling or tripling sediment availability increased projected carbon accumulation up to 7.69 and 14.2 kg m −2 and increased total economic value up to $373,000 and $710,000, respectively. Allowing marsh migration supported conversion of upland to freshwater marsh, with slight increases in carbon accumulation. These results inform climate adaptation planning for wetland managers seeking to understand the resilience of estuarine habitats and ecosystem services to SLR under multiple management strategies.

Washington↗
USGS2014

Land-margin ecosystem hydrologic data for the coastal Everglades, Florida, water years 1996-2012

Mangrove forests and salt marshes dominate the landscape of the coastal Everglades (Odum and McIvor, 1990). However, the ecological effects from potential sea-level rise and increased water flows from planned freshwater Everglades restoration on these coastal systems are poorly understood. The National Park Service (NPS) proposed the South Florida Global Climate Change Project (SOFL-GCC) in 1990 to evaluate climate change and the effect from rising sea levels on the coastal Everglades, particularly at the marsh/mangrove interface or ecotone (Soukup and others, 1990). A primary objective of SOFL-GCC project was to monitor and synthesize the hydrodynamics of the coastal Everglades from the upstream freshwater marsh to the downstream estuary mangrove. Two related hypotheses were set forward (Nuttle and Cosby, 1993): 1. There exists hydrologic conditions (tide, local rainfall, and upstream water deliveries), which characterize the location of the marsh/mangrove ecotone along the marine and terrestrial hydrologic gradient; and 2. The marsh/mangrove ecotone is sensitive to fluctuations in sea level and freshwater inflow from inland areas. Hydrologic monitoring of the SOFL-GCC network began in 1995 after startup delays from Hurricane Andrew (August 1992) and organizational transfers from the NPS to the National Biological Survey (October 1993) and the merger with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biological Research Division in 1996 (Smith, 2004). As the SOFL-GCC project progressed, concern by environmental scientists and land managers over how the diversion of water from Everglades National Park would affect the restoration of the greater Everglades ecosystem. Everglades restoration scenarios were based on hydrodynamic models, none of which included the coastal zone (Fennema and others, 1994). Modeling efforts were expanded to include the Everglades coastal zone (Schaffranek and others, 2001) with SOFL-GCC hydrologic data assisting the ecological modeling needs. In 2002, as a response for a more interdisciplinary science approach to understanding the coastal Everglades ecological system, the SOFL-GCC hydrology project was integrated into the “Dynamics of Land-Margin Ecosystems: Historical Change, Hydrology, Vegetation, Sediment, and Climate” study (Smith and others, 2002). Data from the ongoing study has been useful in providing an empirical hydrologic baseline for the greater Everglades ecosystem restoration science and management needs. The hydrology network consisted of 13 hydrologic gaging stations installed in the southwestern coastal region of Everglades National Park along three transects: Shark River (Shark or SH) transect, Lostmans River (Lostmans or LO) transect, and Chatham River (Chatham or CH) transect (fig. 1). There were five paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Shark transect (SH1, SH2, SH3, SH4, and SH5) and one stage gaging station (BSC) in the Big Sable Creek; four paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Lostmans transect (LO1, LO2, LO3, and LO4); and three paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Chatham transect (CH1, CH2, and CH3). Both surface-water and groundwater levels, salinities, and temperatures were monitored at the paired gaging stations. Rainfall was recorded at marsh and open canopy gaging stations. This report details the study introduction, method, and description of data collected, which are accessible through the final instantaneous hydrologic dataset stored in the USGS South Florida Information Access (SOFIA) South Florida Hydrology Database website, http://sofia.usgs.gov/exchange/sfl_hydro_data/location.html#brdlandmargin .

Florida↗
USGS2024

Management implications of habitat selection by whooping cranes (Grus americana) on the Texas coast

Effective habitat management for rare and endangered species requires a thorough understanding of their specific habitat requirements. Although machine learning models have been increasingly used in the analyses of habitat use by wildlife, the primary focus of these models has been on generating spatial predictions. In this study, we used machine learning models in combination with simulated management actions to guide planning and inform managers. We used data from 61 whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) tagged with GPS telemetry collars between 2009 and 2018 near Aransas National Wildlife Refuge in coastal Texas. We included variables based on topography, land use classification, vegetation height, plant phenology, drought, storm surge events, and both wild and prescribed fires. We then built models at multiple scales: population level, home range level, and roosting and daytime within home range level. We simulated responses to the two primary management actions used to enhance whooping crane habitat on Aransas National Wildlife Refuge: prescribed fire and removal of woody vegetation. At the population and home range scales, land use classification variables had the highest importance values, whereas the combined elevation and bathymetry layer was the most important predictor at both roosting and daytime within home range scales. Our findings revealed that the effects of fire, although generally modest, varied spatially. Areas dominated by estuarine wetlands exhibited higher predicted use within the first months after a fire, whereas those dominated by palustrine wetlands were more likely to be avoided in the immediate postfire years. Our simulation of vegetation removal identified the areas on Aransas National Wildlife Refuge where whooping cranes were predicted to benefit the most if vegetation were removed. These techniques can be used by other researchers wanting to examine and predict the effects of potential management actions on target species habitat.

Texas↗
USGS2015

Changing arctic ecosystems—What is causing the rapid increase of snow geese in northern Alaska?

Through the Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) informs key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is a key study area within the USGS CAE initiative. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past decades, leading to decreased sea ice, permafrost thaw, and an advancement of spring phenology. The number of birds on the ACP also is changing, marked by increased populations of the four species of geese that nest in the region. The Snow Goose ( Chen caerulescens ) is the most rapidly increasing of these species. USGS CAE research is quantifying these changes and their implications for management agencies.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Pedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi

Tsunami waves that arrive hours after generation elsewhere pose logistical challenges to emergency managers due to the perceived abundance of time and inclination of evacuees to use vehicles. We use coastal communities on the island of Oʻahu (Hawaiʻi, USA) to demonstrate regional evacuation modeling that can identify where successful pedestrian-based evacuations are plausible and where vehicle use could be discouraged. The island of Oʻahu has two tsunami-evacuation zones (standard and extreme), which provides the opportunity to examine if recommended travel modes vary based on zone. Geospatial path distance models are applied to estimate population exposure a s a function of pedestrian travel time and speed out of evacuation zones. The use of the extreme zone triples the number of residents, employees, and facilities serving at-risk populations that would be encouraged to evacuate and slightly reduces the percentage of residents (98–76%) that could evacuate in less than 15 min at a plausible speed (with similar percentages for employees). Areas with lengthy evacuations are concentrated in the North Shore region for the standard zone but found all around the Oʻahu coastline for the extreme zone. The use of the extreme zone results in a 26% increase in the number of hotel visitors that would be encouraged to evacuate, and a 76% increase in the number of them that may require more than 15 min. Modeling can identify where pedestrian evacuations are plausible; however, there are logistical and behavioral issues that warrant attention before localized evacuation procedures may be realistic.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2013

A Sr-Nd isotopic study of sand-sized sediment provenance and transport for the San Francisco Bay coastal system

A diverse suite of geochemical tracers, including 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and 143 Nd/ 144 Nd isotope ratios, the rare earth elements (REEs), and select trace elements were used to determine sand-sized sediment provenance and transport pathways within the San Francisco Bay coastal system. This study complements a large interdisciplinary effort (Barnard et al., 2012) that seeks to better understand recent geomorphic change in a highly urbanized and dynamic estuarine-coastal setting. Sand-sized sediment provenance in this geologically complex system is important to estuarine resource managers and was assessed by examining the geographic distribution of this suite of geochemical tracers from the primary sources (fluvial and rock) throughout the bay, adjacent coast, and beaches. Due to their intrinsic geochemical nature, 143 Nd/ 144 Nd isotopic ratios provide the most resolved picture of where sediment in this system is likely sourced and how it moves through this estuarine system into the Pacific Ocean. For example, Nd isotopes confirm that the predominant source of sand-sized sediment to Suisun Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Central Bay is the Sierra Nevada Batholith via the Sacramento River, with lesser contributions from the Napa and San Joaquin Rivers. Isotopic ratios also reveal hot-spots of local sediment accumulation, such as the basalt and chert deposits around the Golden Gate Bridge and the high magnetite deposits of Ocean Beach. Sand-sized sediment that exits San Francisco Bay accumulates on the ebb-tidal delta and is in part conveyed southward by long-shore currents. Broadly, the geochemical tracers reveal a complex story of multiple sediment sources, dynamic intra-bay sediment mixing and reworking, and eventual dilution and transport by energetic marine processes. Combined geochemical results provide information on sediment movement into and through San Francisco Bay and further our understanding of how sustained anthropogenic activities which limit sediment inputs to the system (e.g., dike and dam construction) as well as those which directly remove sediments from within the Bay, such as aggregate mining and dredging, can have long-lasting effects

California↗
USGS2020

Sediment export and impacts associated with river delta channelization compound estuary vulnerability to sea-level rise, Skagit River Delta, Washington, USA

Improved understanding of the budget and retention of sediment in river deltas is becoming increasingly important to mitigate and plan for impacts expected with sea level rise. In this study, analyses of historical bathymetric change, sediment core stratigraphy, and modeling are used to evaluate the sediment budget and environmental response of the largest river delta in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to western land-use change beginning in ~1850. An estimated 142±28 M m 3 of sediment accumulated offshore of the emergent Skagit River delta in Washington State between 1890 and 2014 and ~68% of which was found in sand deposits. The fraction of sediment retained in sand reservoirs represents 83% of the expected fluvial sand delivery over this time suggesting their potential utility to evaluate the relative contribution of different land uses to sediment runoff through time. A significantly higher ratio of sand retention to delivery during the period 1890–1939 coincided with extensive watershed denudation (clear-cut logging) and channel dredging, relative to the period 1940–2014, which was characterized by improved forest practices and sediment management to protect endangered species but also more extensive river channelization. Retention in the delta foreset of 78% of the sand delivered by the river between 1890 and 1939 was associated with extensive sediment bypassing and delta progradation that is shown to be 5–10x higher than rates over the Holocene. Comparable offshore sand retention over time and higher nearshore retention subsequent to 1940 after normalizing for the assumed reduction in sediment runoff with improved forest practices, suggests that channelization has continued to influence sediment export at a magnitude equivalent to the effects of early logging. Adverse impacts of the bypassing sediment regime to natural hazards risk and ecosystem management concerns are discussed, including the role of the lost sediment as a resource to mitigate subsiding coastal lands vulnerable to flood impacts. The sediment budget and coastal change analyses provide a framework for evaluating opportunities to achieve greater resilience across several sectors of coastal land use important in low-lying deltas worldwide.

Washington↗
USGS2024

Assessing the population consequences of disturbance and climate change for the Pacific walrus

Climate change and anthropogenic disturbance are increasingly affecting wildlife at a global scale. Predicting how varying types and degrees of disturbance may interact to influence population dynamics is a key management challenge. Population consequences of disturbance (PCoD) models provide a framework to link effects of anthropogenic disturbance on an individual’s behavior and physiology to population-level changes. In the present study, we develop a Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) PCoD model to encompass the population-level effects of both anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. As the Arctic becomes increasingly ice-free, walruses spend more time at coastal (vs. ice-based) haulouts, from which they must expend more energy to reach foraging areas and where they have an elevated risk of mortality. Concurrently, sea ice loss is increasing the anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic (e.g. fisheries, shipping, energy exploration), which creates additional disturbance. We applied the PCoD model to 4 scenarios (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic) which incorporate different global sea ice model projections along with varying degrees of anthropogenic disturbance. All scenarios indicated a decline in Pacific walrus vital rates by the end of the 21st century, but our results demonstrated that the intensity of that decline could be mitigated by global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, along with local management and conservation efforts to protect important coastal haulouts and foraging grounds. In summary, we introduce a flexible PCoD modeling framework in a novel context which will prove useful to researchers studying species threatened by rapid environmental change.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗
USGS2012

Monitoring storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Isaac along the Gulf Coast of the United States, August 2012

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of water-level and barometric pressure sensors at 127 locations along the gulf coast from Alabama to Louisiana to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Isaac. This deployment was undertaken as part of a coordinated federal emergency response as outlined by the Stafford Act under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Storm tide, as defined by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2008), is the water-level rise generated by a combination of storm surge and astronomical tide during a coastal storm. Hurricane Isaac initially made landfall on the coast of Louisiana in Plaquemines Parish on August 28, 2012, as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (National Weather Service, 1974) and then stalled over southern Louisiana for several days, causing prolonged storm-tide impacts. A total of 188 water-level and wave-height sensors were deployed at 127 locations during August 27–28 prior to landfall. More than 90 percent of the sensors and all high-water marks (HWMs) were recovered and surveyed to North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) within 7 days of the Isaac landfall. Only a handful of sensors in the Plaquemines Parish area of Louisiana could not be retrieved until weeks later due to prolonged flooding in the area. Data collected from this event can be used to evaluate the performance of storm-tide models for maximum and incremental water level and flood extent and the site-specific effects of storm tide on natural and anthropogenic features of the environment.

Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi↗
USGS1970

Annotated bibliography on artificial recharge of ground water, 1955-67

Artificial ground-water recharge has become more important as water use by agriculture, industry, and municipalities increases. Water management agencies are increasingly interested in potential use of recharge for pollution abatement, waste-water disposal, and re-use and reclamation of locally available supplies. Research projects and theoretical analyses of operational recharge systems show increased scientific emphasis on the practice. Overall ground-water basin management systems generally now contain considerations of artificial recharge, whether by direct or indirect methods. Artificial ground-water recharge is a means of conserving surface runoff for future use in places where it would otherwise be lost, of protecting ground-water basins from salt-water encroachment along coastal areas, and of storing and distributing imported water. The biblio-graphy emphasizes technology; however, annotations of articles on waste-water reclamation, ground-water management and ground-water basin management are included. Subjects closely related to artificial recharge, including colloidal flow through porous media, field or laboratory instrumentation, and waste disposal by deep well injection are included where they specifically relate to potential recharge problems. Where almost the same material has been published in several journals, all references are included on the assumption that some publications may be more readily available to interested persons than others. Other publications, especially those of foreign literature, provided abstracts that were used freely as time limitations precluded obtaining and annotating all materials. Abstracts taken from published sources are noted. These are: "Abstracts of North American Geology," U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey; "Abstracts of Recent Published Material on Foil and Water Conservation," ARS-41 series, Agricultural F.esearch Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; "Water and1 Water Engineering," published by Fuel and Metallurgical Journals, Ltd., London, England; "Journal of Geophysical Research," American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.; "American Society of Civil Engineers Transactions," New York; "Selected Bibliography of Hydrology, United Kingdom, for the Years 1955-59," International Association of Scientific Hydrology; "Water Wells, an Annotated Bibliography," California University Water Resources Center Archives Report 13; "Re-use of Effluent in the Future With an Annotated Bibliography," by G. A. Whetstone, Texas Water Development Board Report 8, Austin, Tex.; "Journal of Water Pollution Control Federation," Washington, D.C.; and "A List of Selected Technical References on Artificial Recharge of Ground-Water Reservoirs," compiled by Roy W. Graves, Tulsa University, Information Services Department, Tulsa, Okla. Other notations are self-explanatory, and initials are those of the authors (DCS, DJG, WK). An unpublished compilation of recharge references by Arnon Arad sponsored by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization during a training period with the U.S. Geological Survey was also used. The bibliography is arranged alphabetically by author. Where an author has more than one publication, the arrangement is chronological; where an author has more than one publication in a given year, a, b, c, . . . are added. The indexing is by subject and geographic location. Each article was assigned the key words or phrases to best characterize its contents. Units of measure are as they were in the original article; abbreviations retained are generally those in common use such as mg/1 (milligrams per liter), ppm (parts per million), gpm (gallons per minute), km (kilometers), m (meters), cu m per hr (cubic meters p^r hour), cfs (cubic feet per second), me/1 (milliequivalents per liter), psi (pounds per square inch), BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), sq m (square meters), gpd (gallons per day), and mgd (million gallons per day). The bibliography was prepared because of the worldwide interest in the field of artificial recharge and the need for a single source of references to the literature published since 1954. The work is a sequel to the "Annotated Bibliography on Artificial Recharge of Ground Water Through 1954," by D. K. Todd, U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1477, published in 1959.

Water Supply Paper↗
USGS2018

Interstate water management of a “hidden” resource - Physical principles of groundwater hydrology

Groundwater systems are dynamic geologic environments in which water continuously flows from recharge areas to discharge areas at streams, springs, wetlands, coastal waters, and wells. Natural, predevelopment conditions within groundwater systems are changed by the introduction of wells and other human stresses that modify existing groundwater levels, flow paths, and hydrologic budgets. Groundwater serves the Nation as an important water supply, but in some instances such stresses can have adverse impacts that include excessive ground water-level declines, aquifer-storage reductions, and streamflow depletions. Many of the Nation’s aquifer systems extend over thousands of square miles and their hydrologic boundaries may be distant from jurisdictional boundaries that can be the focus of groundwater disputes. Effective interstate management of groundwater resources is benefited by an understanding of the regional-scale controls that affect groundwater conditions at the local scale. Numerical models are the most effective approach for accounting for all of the relevant hydrologic processes that affect groundwater systems and their response to natural and manmade stresses. This paper provides a brief background on some of the basic principles of groundwater hydrology that are relevant to interstate management of this important natural resource.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Using imaging spectroscopy and elevation in machine learning to estimate soil salinity in intermittently tidal wetlands

Coastal soil salinization patterns are changing due to drought, sea level rise (SLR), and changing freshwater inflow. These changes are expected to impact coastal wetland plant health and ecosystem function, such as changes to biomass and productivity. These impacts have led to greater interest in how we monitor soil salinization across spatial and temporal scales. Remote sensing is a promising tool for estimating soil salinity at the spatial scales required for decision making by land managers. However, the development of a remote sensing estimation approach for wetland soil salinity must account for two factors: (1) the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of coastal wetlands and (2) the fact that soil salinity is the result of multiple historical land use, hydrological, and geomorphic processes. In spring 2022, a combined airborne-field campaign, known as SHIFT, collected a weekly time series of airborne visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR) image spectroscopy data. This dataset provides a unique opportunity to assess the application of fine spatial (5 m) and temporal (weekly) resolution VSWIR data to estimate root zone soil salinity; when combined with environmental variables such as elevation, these data can account for some of these factors. In this study, we utilized VSWIR and elevation datasets in a random forest regression to predict and map soil salinity in an intermittently tidal estuary, Devereux Slough, located in Santa Barbara County, California. The final model combined spectral indices with elevation to better capture soil salinity dynamics despite lower correlation ( r = 0.85) than solely using elevation ( r = 0.92). This research demonstrates the utility of remote sensing datasets, namely, elevation and the modified Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (mARI), for predicting root zone soil salinity in intermittently tidal coastal wetlands. These findings are an important step in advancing coastal remote sensing by creating a gridded salinity dataset that can be used for salinity monitoring and other coastal applications, such as modeling change in vegetation communities or ecosystems facing the impacts of climatic variability and change.

California↗
USGS2013

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: Salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2013

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As the magnitude of air temperatures increase in the four basins, peak flows decrease by larger amounts. If precipitation is held constant (no change from historical values), 17 to 26 percent decreases in peak flow occur at the four basins when temperature is increased by 7.2°F. If temperature is held constant, 26 to 38 percent increases in peak flow result from a 15-percent increase in precipitation. The largest decreases in peak flows at the four basins result from 15-percent decreases in precipitation combined with temperature increases of 10.8°F. The largest increases in peak flows generally result from 30-percent increases in precipitation combined with 3.6 °F decreases in temperatures. In many cases when temperature and precipitation both increase, small increases or decreases in annual daily maximum peak flows result. For likely changes projected for the northeastern United States for the middle of the 21st century (temperature increase of 3.6 °F and precipitation increases of 0 to 15 percent), peak-flow changes at the four coastal Maine basins in this study are modeled to be evenly distributed between increases and decreases of less than 25 percent. Peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs (equivalent to 2-year and 100-year recurrence interval peak flows, respectively) were calculated for the four basins in the study using the PRMS-modeled annual daily maximum peak flows. Modeled peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs with adjusted temperatures and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled values. Changes in peak flows with 50-percent AEPs are similar to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow; changes in peak flows with 1-percent AEPs are similar in pattern to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow, but some of the changes associated with increasing precipitation are much larger than changes in annual daily maximum peak flow. Substantial decreases in maximum annual winter snowpack water equivalent are modeled to occur with increasing air temperatures at the four basins in the study. (Snowpack is the snow on the ground that accumulates during a winter, and water equivalent is the amount of water in a snowpack if it were melted.) The decrease in modeled peak flows with increasing air temperature, given no change in precipitation amount, is likely caused by these decreases in winter snowpack and resulting decreases in snowmelt runoff. This Scientific Investigations Report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Fact Sheet (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3021/.

Maine↗
USGS2026

Towards a refined definition of “tidal influence” for the coastal wetland sciences

The astronomical tide relates to lunar (and to a lesser extent solar) influences on rising and falling water bodies, and is a key control of many coastal processes. However, tides manifest along coastal margins in different ways to muddle application beyond Sir Isaac Newton’s first descriptions. Here, we argue that tide, or specifically “tidal,” has not been adequately defined for the coastal wetland sciences to facilitate contemporary interdisciplinary distinction for rapidly changing coastlines and future climate adaptation planning. We provide a brief history of the tidal concept, and we describe tides in a diversity of uncommonly recognized marginal coastal environments. Common astronomical tide manifestations are described through hydrographic examples, then expanded to include those tidal environments exposed additionally to fluvial, meteorological (wind), or groundwater influences. Our expanded definition of “tidal” is intended to be a forward-looking construct as environments will inevitably change with sea-level rise, water extraction, and anthropogenic flow alteration. Our definition of wetland tidal influence, which we broaden, includes those “wetlands affected by astronomic water level fluctuations within coastally restricted environments causing frequent or infrequent surface inundation or groundwater tidal variation that affects the biogeochemistry of the soil (e.g., ion exchange capacity, oxygen state, mineralization processes)”. Astronomic water level fluctuations are often amplified or dampened by non-astronomical events, such as wind. Expanding the definition of what is considered tidal by the scientific community is critical for improved understanding of coastal wetland function and the suite of ecosystem services they provide people and society, including climate mitigation opportunity, management, and adaptation.

Wetlands↗