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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources

Potential effects of climate change on snail kites (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus) in Florida

The snail kite ( Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus ), an endangered, wetland-dependent raptor, is highly sensitive to changes in hydrology. Climate-driven changes in water level will likely affect snail kite populations—altering reproductive success and survival rates. Identifying the mechanisms mediating the direct and indirect effects of climate on snail kite populations and the range of future climate conditions is important to the conservation of this species. When water levels are low, snail kite nest initiation and nest success decrease owing to decreased availability of their primary prey applesnails ( Pomacea spp.), unstable nesting sites, and increased predator access. Dry events also lead to decreased adult and juvenile survival. In the next 80 years, temperatures and potential evapotranspiration are projected to increase in central and southern Florida. Although future precipitation volume is more uncertain, increased temperatures and evaporative loss may lead to increased frequency, duration, and severity of low-water events. Additionally, rapidly rising water levels have adverse effects on snail kite reproductive success—destroying nests, preventing access to apple snails, and reducing apple snail productivity. Finally, it is likely that future climate will favor more frequent dry conditions and extreme heavy rainfall events, both of which are directly linked to decreased reproductive success and survival. The potential effects of climate change may be buffered by the availability of alternative prey (non-native applesnails) that are more tolerant of anticipated conditions. In highly controlled southern Florida waterbodies, regional water-management decisions may buffer or exacerbate waterbody accession and recession rates.

Florida↗

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States: Climatic and geologic framework

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly but irregularly control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Anthropogenically induced climate change likely will reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations, and perhaps through increased drought. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge directly through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area, and indirectly through climate change. High ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions.

southwestern United States↗

Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States—A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

In the southeastern United States, insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies and barrens—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, incorporating factors such as soil surface temperature, widely fluctuating hydrologic conditions, fires, flood scouring, and episodic droughts that may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous localized, site-level investigations have yielded important information about the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems; however, the literature from these investigations has generally remained fragmented. This report consists of literature syntheses for eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, concerning (1) physical geography, (2) ecological determinants of community structures including vegetation dynamics and regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, (3) contributions to regional and global biodiversity, (4) historical and current anthropogenic threats and conservation approaches, and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. This regional synthesis was undertaken to discern patterns across ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for future analyses of climate-change vulnerability. Findings from this synthesis indicate that, despite their importance to regional and global biodiversity, insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a variety of direct and indirect human alterations. In many cases, important questions remain concerning key determinants of ecosystem function. In particular, few empirical investigations in these ecosystems have focused on possible climate-change effects, despite the well-documented ecological effects of climate change at a global level. Long-term management of these ecosystems could benefit from increased scientific effort to characterize and quantify the linkages between changing environmental conditions and the ecological processes that sustain biodiversity.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗

The geography and geology of Alaska; a summary of existing knowledge, with a section on climate, and a topographic map and description thereof

Alaska, the largest outlying possession of the United States, is that great land mass forming the northwestern extremity of the North American continent, whose western point is within 60 miles of the Asiatic coast (PI. II). About one-quarter of this area lies within the Arctic Circle, and from the standpoint of geographic position must be regarded as an arctic province; but the southern seaboard, exposed to the warm winds and waters of the Pacific, gives to the entire southern portion of the territory" a comparatively warm climate. It is not generally realized that the range of climate in Alaska is greater than that between Florida and Maine. At the southernmost point of the Pacific coast the mean annual temperature is not far from that of the city of Washington, the winters being warmer and characterized by less snowfall; the Yukon Valley on the other hand has a winter climate similar to that of northern Montana and Dakota; while in the extreme northern part of the territory the meteorologic conditions are invariably arctic. Though as yet only sparsely settled, Alaska's vast area and great resources make it one of the most important possessions of the United States and promise its rapid development. During the years 1890 to 1900 the population increased from 32,052* to 63,592. The mineral output, which in 1890 was valued at less than $800,000, exceeded $9,000,000 in 1904, and the fisheries show a corresponding growth. This rapid development has attracted public attention and led to urgent demand for explorations, surveys, and other investigations. So actively has this work been pushed, both by public and private enterprise, that exact knowledge of the geography, geology, and mineral resources of the interior has made greater strides within the last eight years than during the preceding thirty-one years since the acquisition of Alaska. The facts regarding the geography and geology, scattered as they are through the many books and reports of this period, are not always readily accessible, and the time seems ripe to present them in a summarized form. The topography of Alaska is varied and complex (see PI. I), and it is not easy to present briefly even the salient features. The limited number of pages here devoted to the subject precludes the possibility of detailed treatment, even if the facts were available. Much of the description has been taken from the results attained by other investigators, the writer being personally familiar with only a part of this large province. A list of the publications consulted is appended. The larger geographic features of Alaska are now fairly well known, though the detailed surveys which are demanded by the development of many localities have hardly been begun. Preliminary surveys have been completed of all but three 8 of the larger rivers. The most important mountain ranges have been at least outlined (fig. 3). Only three large areas remain almost entirely unmapped: One in southwestern Alaska, between Cook Inlet and the lower Kuskokwim, and the others in northern Alaska, embracing the Arctic watershed east and west of the Colville River. Nearly all the surveys of the interior, however, have been of a preliminary and exploratory character, and to meet the requirements of exact geography must be followed by more detailed mensuration. Though the coast line has been fairly well known for more than half a century, knowledge of the interior has been gained chiefly within the last two decades. This has not yet found its way into text-books and has too often been entirely ignored by cartographers. If facts are presented which may seem elementary, it is because even well-informed people have been known to harbor misconceptions in regard to the orographic features, climate, and general character of Alaska. Those who read of the perils and privations of winter travel and explorations are apt to picture a region of ice and snow; others, again, who have personal knowledge of the tourist route of southeastern Alaska, regard the whole district as one of rugged mountains and glaciers. In point of fact, glaciers are now nearly limited to the ranges bordering the Pacific and to the two slopes of the Alaska range; and even during the greatest development of glaciers but a small portion of Alaska was under ice (see map, PI. XXII). As a treatise on geography would hardly be complete without some discussion of the climate, meteorologic data have been compiled by Mr. Cleveland Abbe, jr., but the discussion of this does not pretend to be more than a cursory treatment of the subject. The scope of the paper seems to require also a brief summary of the development of geographic knowledge of Alaska. This subject, with its many ramifications, is of fascinating interest and offers a magnificent field for the trained historian. If the accompanying sketch of discovery and exploration awakens any measure of popular interest the writer will feel amply rewarded for having attacked a theme which hardly falls within the scope of his investigations. When this compilation was begun it was intended to be chiefly a description of the topography of Alaska, as illustrated by the accompanying map (PI. XXXIV, in pocket), which was compiled under the direction of the late R. U. Goode. In the course of the work there accumulated much geologic as well as geographic material which seemed worthy of inclusion in the report. As no comprehensive statement of the geology of Alaska has been made since the modern epoch of investigation was begun, an attempt will be made to give a summary of all results achieved. Since the writer has obtained much of his knowledge of the facts from the work of others, he disclaims any pretense of making an entirely original contribution to geologic science. He feels, however, that a personal familiarity with a considerable part of the province, gained during seven consecutive seasons of field work, will justify Mm in presenting conclusions which may in some cases be at variance with those in the reports on which he must draw for his facts. Throughout this report attempt will be made to credit borrowed material to the source from which it is drawn. Where such matter has been obtained entirely from published reports there is no difficulty in so doing; but as regards investigators of the Geological Survey, with whom the writer has collaborated both in field and in office, the case is somewhat different, for it is not always possible to know whether this or that theory originated with the writer or with one of his colleagues. It will, then, perhaps suffice to state that this report could not have been prepared without the explorations and researches of the geologists, F. C. Schrader, Walter C. Mendenhall, Arthur J. Collier, J. E. Spurr, and Arthur C. Spencer; and the surveys of the topographers, T. G. Gerdine, D. C. Witherspoon, D. L. Reaburn, W. J. Peters, and E. C. Barnard. Each of these men, in the course of from two to six years of field work, has made important contributions to the knowledge of the geography and geology of Alaska, and not all of these results have yet been put in print. In the last season (1903) L. M. Prindle, C. W. Wright, Arthur Hollick, G. C. Martin, F. L. Hess, and Fred H. Moffit have carried on geologic work in Alaska, and the writer has made use of their work now in course of publication. He has also been fortunate in having access to the manuscript reports of Walter C. Mendenhall and F. C. Schrader on the Copper River basin, to which references will be made. The matter here presented should be credited in a measure to all of these investigators, but for many of the theories advanced the writer alone is responsible. As this manuscript goes to press there has been opportunity to incorporate some of the results of the field work of 1904. As far as possible these have been embodied in the text, but in some instances it has been found advisable to add them only as footnotes. During the past summer F. E. and C. W. Wright extended the geologic reconnaissance in southeastern Alaska. In southwestern Alaska G. C. Martin and T. W. Stanton have determined the general Mesozoic section, while F. H. Moffit has made a reconnaissance of the northern part of the Kenai Peninsula. A. J. Collier has mapped the geology of the Cape Lisburne region, and L. M. Prindle and F. L. Hess have made contributions to the knowledge of the metamorphic terranes of the Yukon-Tanana district. It is the writer's purpose to describe in nontechnical language the larger geographic features and discuss their relation as far as the data available will permit. In the treatment of the geology, however, less effort will be made to make the matter acceptable to the lay reader. It is hoped, however, that a brief summary of the salient features of the geologic history' may be not without interest to the general public. If this paper serves in some measure to dispel the popular fallacies regarding Alaska and to disseminate more accurate knowledge of its geographic and geologic features, the purpose of its publication will be accomplished.

Alaska↗

Projected climate and vegetation changes and potential biotic effects for Fort Benning, Georgia; Fort Hood, Texas; and Fort Irwin, California

The responses of species and ecosystems to future climate changes will present challenges for conservation and natural resource managers attempting to maintain both species populations and essential habitat. This report describes projected future changes in climate and vegetation for three study areas surrounding the military installations of Fort Benning, Georgia, Fort Hood, Texas, and Fort Irwin, California. Projected climate changes are described for the time period 2070–2099 (30-year mean) as compared to 1961–1990 (30-year mean) for each study area using data simulated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), and UKMO-HadCM3, run under the B1, A1B, and A2 future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These climate data are used to simulate potential changes in important components of the vegetation for each study area using LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, and LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model optimized for regional studies. The simulated vegetation results are compared with observed vegetation data for the study areas. Potential effects of the simulated future climate and vegetation changes for species and habitats of management concern are discussed in each study area, with a particular focus on federally listed threatened and endangered species.

Georgia;Texas;California↗

A model for evaluating effects of climate, water availability, and water management on wetland impoundments--a case study on Bowdoin, Long Lake, and Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuges

Many wetland impoundments managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System throughout the northern Great Plains rely on rivers as a primary water source. A large number of these impoundments currently are being stressed from changes in water supplies and quality, and these problems are forecast to worsen because of projected changes to climate and land use. For example, many managed wetlands in arid regions have become degraded owing to the long-term accumulation of salts and increased salinity associated with evapotranspiration. A primary goal of the USFWS is to provide aquatic habitats for a diversity of waterbirds; thus, wetland managers would benefit from a tool that facilitates evaluation of wetland habitat quality in response to current and anticipated impacts of altered hydrology and salt balances caused by factors such as climate change, water availability, and management actions. A spreadsheet model that simulates the overall water and salinity balance (WSB model) of managed wetland impoundments is presented. The WSB model depicts various habitat metrics, such as water depth, salinity, and surface areas (inundated, dry), which can be used to evaluate alternative management actions under various water-availability and climate scenarios. The WSB model uses widely available spreadsheet software, is relatively simple to use, relies on widely available inputs, and is readily adaptable to specific locations. The WSB model was validated using data from three National Wildlife Refuges with direct and indirect connections to water resources associated with rivers, and common data limitations are highlighted. The WSB model also was used to conduct simulations based on hypothetical climate and management scenarios to demonstrate the utility of the model for evaluating alternative management strategies and climate futures. The WSB model worked well across a range of National Wildlife Refuges and could be a valuable tool for USFWS staff when evaluating system state and management alternatives and establishing long-term goals and objectives.

Bowdoin National Wildlife Refuge;Long Lake Nationa↗

Simulating the effects of climate-related changes to air temperature and precipitation on streamflow and water temperature in the Meduxnekeag River watershed, Maine

Responsible stewardship of native fish populations and riparian plants in the Meduxnekeag River watershed in northeastern Maine is a high priority for the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians. Understanding the potential changes in hydrology and water temperature as a result of climate change is important to this priority for evaluating future habitat conditions in the watershed. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, documents and presents the results of a model using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a hydrologic model designed to provide streamflow and water temperature simulations under predicted changes in precipitation and air temperature during the next century. To estimate streamflows and water temperature in the Meduxnekeag River watershed, a PRMS model was developed and calibrated. By using the calibrated PRMS model, simulations were made for projected scenarios of 0, 5, 10, and 15 percent increases in precipitation and for increases in air temperature of 0.0, 3.6, 7.0, and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit (°F). The increases in precipitation and temperature were applied to all the daily input values uniformly. These scenarios were based upon the results from 30 climate change models summarized in the National Climate Change Viewer. Streamflows and water temperatures modeled for different climate scenarios were compared with streamflows and water temperatures modeled with unadjusted climate inputs. Overall, streamflow increased with increasing precipitation and decreased with increasing air temperature. Water temperature increased with increasing air temperature. At the outlet of the studied Meduxnekeag River watershed, with both a 15 percent increase in precipitation and a 10.4 °F increase in air temperature, the mean annual streamflow increased by 17 percent from 489 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) to 572 ft 3 /s, and the mean annual maximum streamflow decreased by 8.3 percent from 3,870 ft 3 /s to 3,550 ft 3 /s. At the same location and under the same scenario, the mean annual water temperature increased by 17.5 percent from 47.4 °F to 55.7 °F. Significant changes in mean monthly streamflows were found with increasing air temperature. The PRMS model results showed that when air temperature was increased, there was an increase in mean monthly streamflow during the winter months and a decrease in mean monthly streamflow during the spring months. In addition, with a 10.4 °F increase in the air temperature, the month with the greatest monthly streamflow changed from April to December. In addition, the PRMS model estimated that the mean annual maximum snowpack in snow water equivalent for the watershed would decrease from 7.67 inches to 1.26 inches, and the mean annual date of the maximum snowpack would change from March 21 to January 28 with a 15 percent increase in precipitation and a 10.4 °F increase in air temperature.

Maine↗

Forecasting the distribution of a range-expanding bat reveals future response to climate change and habitat

Many terrestrial vertebrate species are exhibiting geographic distribution changes including poleward range limit shifts in response to increases in regional temperature. Bats are a highly mobile taxa capable of rapid responses to changes in abiotic or biotic conditions. In North America, recent extralimital records of the non-hibernating Lasiurus seminolus (Seminole bat) have been attributed to climate change, however such attributions remain speculative and potentially subject to sampling bias in the form of increased recent sampling efforts at latitudes north of the historical range. We used historical occurrence records and simple environmental variables within a Maxent modeling framework to model the historical distribution of suitable areas for this species. We transferred the model using near current environmental conditions and measured the ability of the model to capture the apparent expansion in distribution using recent extralimital occurrence records. This measure indicated a distribution expansion, largely attributed to increasing minimum temperatures. We used the model to forecast the expansion in distribution of suitable areas at three 20-year intervals and various climate change scenarios and provide extrapolation risk maps for each scenario. Although increasing temperatures may increase potentially occupiable areas, the species is associated with forests and often roosts in Pinus spp. (pines). This suitable habitat is reduced in presence to the northwest of the species’ range, which may constrain the future species expansion despite favorable temperatures. We demonstrated this effect by mapping limiting factors through future climate change scenarios. We discovered a broad shift of effects that constrained the distribution from minimum temperature to a metric of evergreen cover type as time and climate intensity increased. Although uncertainties exist, we predict further expansion of the Seminole bat widely over the next 60 years across the eastern United States where suitable habitat and climate conditions converge. Our results appear consistent with other bat species showing similar range extensions and in turn provide further evidence that bats may serve as bioindicators of global change.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Ind↗

Pliocene (Piacenzian) planktic foraminiferal biogeography: Insights into how planktic biogeography is linked to climate and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems

The Piacenzian Age (3.60–2.58 Ma) of the Pliocene Epoch was characterized by globally warmer climates, higher sea levels, and atmospheric CO 2 similar to present. Utilizing a robust dataset of 2,101 samples and over 637,000 foraminifer specimens from 77 deep-sea core sites worldwide, we document planktic foraminifer biogeography and biodiversity during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP). Cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling reveal five major bioregions: tropical, warm subtropical, transitional, polar, and a distinct North Atlantic polar bioregion. Each bioregion was dominated by characteristic species with well-established temperature preferences. Analyses demonstrate higher species richness and evenness in low and mid-latitudes, with increased diversity associated with periods of climatic warming and poleward expansion of warm water assemblages. The long-term stability of biogeographic patterns underscores ecological conservatism but also highlights potential vulnerability to rapid anthropogenic climate change. Our findings emphasize the critical role of planktic foraminifers in reconstructing past ocean conditions and offer valuable insights into links between planktic biogeography, climate, and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems. This work advances our understanding of marine ecosystem responses to climate extremes and provides a foundation for future regional and temporal analyses of planktic foraminifer biogeography under global change scenarios.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

Spatio-temporal variability in the strength, directionality, and relative importance of climate on occupancy and population densities in a philopatric mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps)

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely employed to evaluate species–environment relationships. However, when extrapolated over broad spatial scales or through time, these models decline in their predictive ability due to variation in how species respond to their environment. Many models assume species–environment relationships remain constant over space and time, hindering their ability to accurately forecast distributions. Therefore, there is growing recognition that models could be improved by accounting for spatio-temporal nonstationarity – a phenomenon wherein the factors governing ecological processes change over space or time. Here, we investigated nonstationarity in American pika ( Ochotona princeps ) relationships with climatic variables in the Rocky Mountains (USA). We first compared broad-scale differences in pika–climate patterns for occupancy and population density across the Southern, Central, and Northern Rockies. Next, we investigated within-ecoregion variation across four mountain ranges nested within the Northern Rockies. Lastly, we tested whether species–climate relationships changed over time within the Central Rockies ecoregion. Across all analyses, we found varying levels of nonstationarity among the climate metrics for both occupancy and density. Although we found general congruence in temperature metrics, which consistently had negative coefficients, and moisture metrics (e.g., relative humidity), which had positive coefficients, nonstationarity was greatest for summer and winter precipitation over both space and time. These results suggest that interpretations from one ecoregion should not be applied to other regions universally – especially when using precipitation metrics. The within-ecoregion analysis found much greater variation in the strength-of-relationship coefficients among the four mountain ranges, relative to the inter-regional analysis, possibly attributable to smaller sample sizes per mountain range. Lastly, the importance of several variables shifted through time from significant to insignificant in the temporal analysis. Our results collectively reveal the overall complexity underlying species–environment relationships. With rapidly shifting conditions globally, this work adds to the growing body of literature highlighting how issues of spatio-temporal nonstationarity can limit the accuracy, transferability, and reliability of models and that interpretations will likely be most robust at local to regional scales. Diagnosing, describing, and incorporating nonstationarity of species–climate relationships into models over space and time could serve as a pivotal step in creating more informative models.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

Increased whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) growth and defense under a warmer and regionally drier climate

Introduction: Tree defense characteristics play a crucial role in modulating conifer bark beetle interactions, and there is a growing body of literature investigating factors mediating tree growth and resin-based defenses in conifers. A subset of studies have looked at relationships between tree growth, resin duct morphology and climate; however, these studies are almost exclusively from lower-elevation, moisture-limited systems. The relationship between resin ducts and climate in higher-elevation, energy-limited ecosystems is currently poorly understood. Methods: In this study, we: (1) evaluated the relationship between biological trends in tree growth, resin duct anatomy, and climatic variability and (2) determined if tree growth and resin duct morphology of whitebark pine, a high-elevation conifer of management concern, is constrained by climate and/or regional drought conditions. Results: We found that high-elevation whitebark pine trees growing in an energy-limited system experienced increased growth and defense under warmer and regionally drier conditions, with climate variables explaining a substantive proportion of variation (∼20–31%) in tree diameter growth and resin duct anatomy. Discussion: Our results suggest that whitebark pine growth and defense was historically limited by short growing seasons in high-elevation environments; however, this relationship may change in the future with prolonged warming conditions.

Montana↗

Drought, deluge and declines: the impact of precipitation extremes on amphibians in a changing climate

The Class Amphibia is one of the most severely impacted taxa in an on-going global biodiversity crisis. Because amphibian reproduction is tightly associated with the presence of water, climatic changes that affect water availability pose a particularly menacing threat to both aquatic and terrestrial-breeding amphibians. We explore the impacts that one facet of climate change—that of extreme variation in precipitation—may have on amphibians. This variation is manifested principally as increases in the incidence and severity of both drought and major storm events. We stress the need to consider not only total precipitation amounts but also the pattern and timing of rainfall events. Such rainfall “pulses” are likely to become increasingly more influential on amphibians, especially in relation to seasonal reproduction. Changes in reproductive phenology can strongly influence the outcome of competitive and predatory interactions, thus potentially altering community dynamics in assemblages of co-existing species. We present a conceptual model to illustrate possible landscape and metapopulation consequences of alternative climate change scenarios for pond-breeding amphibians, using the Mole Salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum , as an example. Although amphibians have evolved a variety of life history strategies that enable them to cope with environmental uncertainty, it is unclear whether adaptations can keep pace with the escalating rate of climate change. Climate change, especially in combination with other stressors, is a daunting challenge for the persistence of amphibians and, thus, the conservation of global biodiversity.

Biology↗

Application of empirical land-cover changes to construct climate change scenarios in federally managed lands

Sagebrush-dominant ecosystems in the western United States are highly vulnerable to climatic variability. To understand how these ecosystems will respond under potential future conditions, we correlated changes in National Land Cover Dataset “Back-in-Time” fractional cover maps from 1985-2018 with Daymet climate data in three federally managed preserves in the sagebrush steppe ecosystem: Beaty Butte Herd Management Area, Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge, and Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge. Future (2018 to 2050) abundance and distribution of vegetation cover were modeled at a 300-m resolution under a business-as-usual climate (BAU) scenario and a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Spatially explicit map projections suggest that climate influences may make the landscape more homogeneous in the near future. Specifically, projections indicate that pixels with high bare ground cover become less bare ground dominant, pixels with moderate herbaceous cover contain less herbaceous cover, and pixels with low shrub cover contain more shrub cover. General vegetation patterns and composition do not differ dramatically between scenarios despite RCP 8.5 projections of + 1.2 °C mean annual minimum temperatures and +7.6 mm total annual precipitation. Hart Mountain National Antelope Refuge is forecast to undergo the most change, with both models projecting larger declines in bare ground and larger increases in average herbaceous and shrub cover compared to Beaty Butte Herd Management Area and Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge. These scenarios present plausible future outcomes intended to guide federal land managers to identify vegetation cover changes that may affect habitat condition and availability for species of interest.

Remote Sensing↗

Tourist perceptions of climate change impacts on mountain ecotourism in southern Mexico

Climate change impacts on tourism are well documented, with most studies focusing on challenges facing ski or beach tourism. While non-ski, mountain tourism accounts for almost one fifth of tourism worldwide, there is a dearth of research on tourists’ perceptions of climate change impacts and their effects on tourism demand in these areas. This study, conducted at the ecotourism destination of the Pueblos Mancomunados in the Sierra Norte Mountains of southern Mexico, helps to fill that gap by identifying important tourist decision factors and determining how tourists’ decisions to visit may change under different climatic conditions. Using on-site intercept survey research methodology involving 188 tourists, we found that some climate change scenarios affect tourists’ perceptions of the desirability of visiting nature-based tourism sites. Results indicate that community-based ecotourism businesses, such as the one that operates in the Pueblos Mancomunados, need to specifically plan for climate change impacts, as they may need to alter tourism offerings to sustain demand.

Oaxaca↗

Headwaters fed by subterranean ice: Potential climate refugia for alpine stream communities?

Near-term extirpations of macroinvertebrates are predicted for mountain streams worldwide as a warming climate drives the recession of high-elevation ice and snow. However, hydrological sources likely vary in their resistance to climate change, and thus streams fed by more resistant sources could persist as climate refugia for imperiled biota. In 2015–2016, we measured habitat characteristics and quantified macroinvertebrate community structure along 6 alpine streams in the Teton Range, Wyoming, USA. Strong differences in habitat characteristics (e.g., temperature, bed stability, conductivity) confirmed 3 major stream sources: surface glaciers, perennial snowfields, and subterranean ice. Subterranean ice-fed streams—termed “icy seeps”—appear common in the Teton Range and elsewhere, yet are globally understudied. Midges in the family Chironomidae dominated our study sites, representing 78.6% of all specimens sampled, with nematodes, caddisflies ( Neothremma ), and mayflies ( Epeorus ) also common. At the community scale, glacier- and snowmelt-fed streams differed significantly in multivariate space, with icy-seep communities intermediate between them, incorporating components of both assemblages. Because the thermal environment of subterranean ice, including rock glaciers, is decoupled from large-scale climatic conditions, we predict that icy seeps will remain intact longer than streams fed by surface ice and snow. Furthermore, our results suggest that icy seeps are suitable habitat for many macroinvertebrates occupying streams fed by vulnerable hydrological sources. Thus, icy seeps may act as key climate refugia for mountain stream biodiversity, an idea in need of further investigation.

Wyoming↗

Southeast Utah Group climate and drought adaptation report: Exposure and perennial grass sensitivity

National Park Service (NPS) managers face growing challenges resulting from the effects of climate change. In particular, as temperatures rise in coming decades, natural resource management in the western United States must cope with expectations for elevated severity and frequency of droughts. These challenges are particularly pronounced for vegetation managers in dryland environments. Developing adaptive strategies requires specific information about the expected magnitude of change in climate and drought conditions as well as insights into how those changes will affect important vegetation resources. This report describes research focused on Southeast Utah Group (SEUG) park units designed to provide information about exposure and sensitivity of perennial grasses to aridification. Analyses at larger regional scales are also reported for context and comparison. This report is a product of an ongoing climate adaptation collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NPS, and Northern Arizona University. The study it summarizes contributes quantitative ingredients for vulnerability assessments that are needed in the Climate-Smart Conservation framework. As such, the results informed a series of climate adaptation workshops conducted between 2018 and 2021 for Colorado Plateau scientists and managers. This is a giant step forward in science-informed management. The information in this report can be used to craft management strategies that can be implemented at the right place and time for individual species of concern.

Colorado, Utah↗

Technical Note: Linking climate change and downed woody debris decomposition across forests of the eastern United States

Forest ecosystems play a critical role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Forest carbon (C) is stored through photosynthesis and released via decomposition and combustion. Relative to C fixation in biomass, much less is known about C depletion through decomposition of woody debris, particularly under a changing climate. It is assumed that the increased temperatures and longer growing seasons associated with projected climate change will increase the decomposition rates (i.e., more rapid C cycling) of downed woody debris (DWD); however, the magnitude of this increase has not been previously addressed. Using DWD measurements collected from a national forest inventory of the eastern United States, we show that the residence time of DWD may decrease (i.e., more rapid decomposition) by as much as 13% over the next 200 years, depending on various future climate change scenarios and forest types. Although existing dynamic global vegetation models account for the decomposition process, they typically do not include the effect of a changing climate on DWD decomposition rates. We expect that an increased understanding of decomposition rates, as presented in this current work, will be needed to adequately quantify the fate of woody detritus in future forests. Furthermore, we hope these results will lead to improved models that incorporate climate change scenarios for depicting future dead wood dynamics in addition to a traditional emphasis on live-tree demographics.

Biogeosciences↗

Yukon River incision drove organic carbon burial in the Bering Sea during global climate changes at 2.6 and 1 Ma

River erosion affects the carbon cycle and thus climate by exporting terrigenous carbon to seafloor sediment and by nourishing CO 2 -consuming marine life. The Yukon River–Bering Sea system preserves rare source-to-sink records of these processes across profound changes in global climate during the past 5 million years (Ma). Here, we expand the terrestrial erosion record by dating terraces along the Charley River, Alaska, and explore linkages among previously published Yukon River tributary incision chronologies and Bering Sea sedimentation. Cosmogenic 26 Al / 10 Be "> isochron burial ages of Charley River terraces match previously documented central Yukon River tributary incision from 2.6 to 1.6 Ma during Pliocene–Pleistocene glacial expansion, and at 1.1 Ma during the 1.2–0.7 Ma Middle Pleistocene climate transition. Bering Sea sediments preserve 2–4-fold rate increases of Yukon River-derived continental detritus, terrestrial and marine organic carbon, and silicate microfossil deposition at 2.6–2.1 and 1.1–0.8 Ma. These tightly coupled records demonstrate elevated terrigenous nutrient and carbon export and concomitant Bering Sea productivity in response to climate-forced Yukon River incision. Carbon burial related to accelerated terrestrial erosion may contribute to CO 2 drawdown across the Pliocene–Pleistocene and Middle Pleistocene climate transitions observed in many proxy records worldwide.

Alaska, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, Y↗