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At least 919 records · Page 51Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Establishing links between streamflow and ecological integrity in the Sudbury River (Northeastern U.S.)

With increased pressure from a growing human population, managers are challenged to understand how novel disturbances (e.g., climate change, increased water withdrawals, urbanization) may affect natural resources. The Sudbury River is a National Wild and Scenic River located in suburban Boston, Massachusetts (Northeastern US) with myriad impairments (e.g., mainstem impoundments, withdrawals, and urbanization) that is under increasing pressure from hydrologic alteration. We sampled fish, mussel, and macroinvertebrate assemblages in the Sudbury River and used species traits to investigate potential effects of past and future flow alteration on biota. Analysis of 33 years of stream gage data indicates continued hydrologic alteration of the Sudbury River, likely related to increased urbanization and water withdrawals over that time. These changes include a roughly 200% increase in rise rates of flows, an approximate 65% decrease in 1-day minimum flows, and a trend towards increasing high flow pulse counts. Biotic sampling in summer of 2014 demonstrated that the Sudbury River is now dominated by generalist species. Of five mussel species sampled, all are generalists in their habitat requirements. Though one mussel species of special concern was sampled, the most abundant species collected were the widespread Eastern elliptio (58%) and Eastern lampmussel (40%). We used the target fish community (TFC) model to assess the degree to which the fish assemblage deviated from that expected for a river with similar zoogeographic and physical features. Overall, the current community has a 22.7% similarity to the TFC. Of the four fluvial specialist species present in the TFC, only fallfish was sampled in our study. While the TFC showed that the historical assemblage was likely dominated by fluvial specialist and fluvial dependent species, the current assemblage is overwhelmingly dominated by macrohabitat generalists (90.6% of fishes sampled). These results are consistent with other studies that show shifts in assemblages from fluvial specialists to habitat generalists with hydrologic alteration. If the current trends continue, it is likely that biotic assemblages will experience increasing pressure from hydrologic alteration. While hydrologic alteration is likely impacting biotic assemblages in the Sudbury River, other factors such as high temperatures, low dissolved oxygen, high nutrients, low availability of high-quality habitat, and poor habitat connectivity may also be negatively impacting biotic assemblages. Comparisons to other rivers and a complete longitudinal habitat survey could help to identify availability of unique habitats and representativeness of this study. While this study suggests impacts of flow on biota, future studies with quantitative, habitat-specific sampling during different flow levels could help to directly identify links between hydrologic alteration and biotic impairment in the Sudbury River.

Massachussetts↗
USGS2018

Convergence of marine megafauna movement patterns in coastal and open oceans

The extent of increasing anthropogenic impacts on large marine vertebrates partly depends on the animals’ movement patterns. Effective conservation requires identification of the key drivers of movement including intrinsic properties and extrinsic constraints associated with the dynamic nature of the environments the animals inhabit. However, the relative importance of intrinsic versus extrinsic factors remains elusive. We analyze a global dataset of ∼2.8 million locations from >2,600 tracked individuals across 50 marine vertebrates evolutionarily separated by millions of years and using different locomotion modes (fly, swim, walk/paddle). Strikingly, movement patterns show a remarkable convergence, being strongly conserved across species and independent of body length and mass, despite these traits ranging over 10 orders of magnitude among the species studied. This represents a fundamental difference between marine and terrestrial vertebrates not previously identified, likely linked to the reduced costs of locomotion in water. Movement patterns were primarily explained by the interaction between species-specific traits and the habitat(s) they move through, resulting in complex movement patterns when moving close to coasts compared with more predictable patterns when moving in open oceans. This distinct difference may be associated with greater complexity within coastal microhabitats, highlighting a critical role of preferred habitat in shaping marine vertebrate global movements. Efforts to develop understanding of the characteristics of vertebrate movement should consider the habitat(s) through which they move to identify how movement patterns will alter with forecasted severe ocean changes, such as reduced Arctic sea ice cover, sea level rise, and declining oxygen content.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2021

A regional spatio-temporal analysis of large magnitude snow avalanches using tree rings

Snow avalanches affect transportation corridors and settlements worldwide. In many mountainous regions, robust records of avalanche frequency and magnitude are sparse or non-existent. However, dendrochronological methods can be used to fill this gap and infer historical avalanche patterns. In this study, we developed a tree-ring-based avalanche chronology for large magnitude avalanche events (size ≥ ∼ D 3 "> ≥ ∼ D 3 ) using dendrochronological techniques for a portion of the US northern Rocky Mountains. We used a strategic sampling design to examine avalanche activity through time and across nested spatial scales (i.e., from individual paths, four distinct subregions, and the region). We analyzed 673 samples in total from 647 suitable trees collected from 12 avalanche paths from which 2134 growth disturbances were identified over the years 1636 to 2017 CE. Using existing indexing approaches, we developed a regional avalanche activity index to discriminate avalanche events from noise in the tree-ring record. Large magnitude avalanches, common across the region, occurred in 30 individual years and exhibited a median return interval of approximately 3 years (mean = 5.21 years). The median large magnitude avalanche return interval (3–8 years) and the total number of avalanche years (12–18) varies throughout the four subregions, suggesting the important influence of local terrain and weather factors. We tested subsampling routines for regional representation, finding that sampling 8 random paths out of a total of 12 avalanche paths in the region captures up to 83 % of the regional chronology, whereas four paths capture only 43 % to 73 %. The greatest value probability of detection for any given path in our dataset is 40 %, suggesting that sampling a single path would capture no more than 40 % of the regional avalanche activity. Results emphasize the importance of sample size, scale, and spatial extent when attempting to derive a regional large magnitude avalanche event chronology from tree-ring records.

Montana↗
USGS2021

Dynamic Energy Budget modelling to predict eastern oyster growth, reproduction, and mortality under river management and climate change scenarios

Eastern oysters growing in deltaic Louisiana estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico must tolerate considerable salinity variation from natural climate variability (e.g., rainfall and stream run-off pushing isohalines offshore; tropical storms pushing isohalines inshore) and man-made diversions and siphons releasing freshwater from the Mississippi River. These salinity variations are predicted to increase with future climate change because of the increased frequency of stronger storms and also in response to proposed large-scale river diversions. Increased Mississippi River flow into coastal estuaries from river diversions, along with potential changes in rainfall and stream run-off from climate change will alter spatial and temporal salinity patterns. In this study we used an individual Dynamic Energy Budget model to predict growth and reproductive potential of eastern oysters across observed and simulated salinity gradients corresponding to different climate and river management scenarios. We used validated model outputs of salinity from a coupled hydrology-hydrodynamic model to assess the current impacts of Davis Pond diversion discharge on oysters located downstream. Under a high diversion discharge scenario oyster growth potential was reduced by 9%, 4%, and 1% in Upper, Mid, and Lower Bay locations, respectively, as compared to a limited discharge year. Reproductive outputs decreased by 34% and 2% in the Upper and Lower Bay locations, respectively, and increased by 2% at the Mid Bay site. In scenarios combining predicted increased temperature with the effect of diversions, all oysters located in the Upper and Mid Bay sites died due to severe summer conditions (high temperatures combined with low salinity). Overall, oysters in down-estuary locations, influenced by both estuarine river management and gulf conditions demonstrated significant tolerance to changing salinity and temperature conditions from diversions alone and when combined with climate change. In contrast, oysters located up-estuary, and exposed to more extreme salinity impacts from river management, demonstrated potentially lethal impacts through direct mortality, and reduced sustainability through decrease in reproductive effort. These predictions at the individual level may translate into less sustainable populations in the most extreme scenarios; restoration and production plans would benefit from accounting for these impacts on reproductive output particularly as decision makers seek to restore critical oyster areas.

Louisiana↗
USGS2024

Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts

Reliable forecasts of building damage due to debris flows may provide situational awareness and guide land and emergency management decisions. Application of debris-flow runout models to generate such forecasts requires combining hazard intensity predictions with fragility functions that link hazard intensity with building damage. In this study, we evaluated the performance of building damage forecasts for the 9 January 2018 Montecito postfire debris-flow runout event, in which over 500 buildings were damaged. We constructed forecasts using either peak debris-flow depth or momentum flux as the hazard intensity measure and applied each approach using three debris-flow runout models (RAMMS, FLO-2D, and D-Claw). Generated forecasts were based on averaging multiple simulations that sampled a range of debris-flow volume and mobility, reflecting typical sources and magnitude of pre-event uncertainty. We found that only forecasts made with momentum flux and the D-Claw model could correctly predict the observed number of damaged buildings and the spatial patterns of building damage. However, the best forecast only predicted 50 % of the observed damaged buildings correctly and had coherent spatial patterns of incorrectly predicted building damage (i.e., false positives and false negatives). These results indicate that forecasts made at the building level reliably reflect the spatial pattern of damage but do not support interpretation at the individual building level. We found the event size strongly influences the number of damaged buildings and the spatial pattern of debris-flow depth and velocity. Consequently, future research on the link between precipitation and the volume of sediment mobilized may have the greatest effect on reducing uncertainty in building damage forecasts. Finally, because we found that both depth and velocity are needed to predict building damage, comparing debris-flow models against spatially distributed observations of building damage is a more stringent test for model fidelity than comparison against the extent of debris-flow runout.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2024

Challenges of implementing a multi-agency monitoring and adaptive management strategy for federally threatened Chinook salmon and steelhead trout during and after dam removal in the Elwha River

Adaptive management, a process of planning, implementing, and evaluating management strategies, is often recommended for monitoring ecological systems. However, few examples of successful implementation and retrospective case studies exist. We provide a case study of adaptively managing hatchery-assisted protection and recovery for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and winter steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ) during and after the removal of two large mainstem dams in the Elwha River, WA. We summarize key aspects of the monitoring and adaptive management plan over the last decade and highlight successes, challenges, and complications during the plan’s implementation. The Elwha Monitoring and Adaptive Management Guidelines included a trigger-based system for moving through four phases of recovery that included preservation, recolonization, local adaptation, and viable natural population, each with differing levels of hatchery production as the management actions. The monitoring component of the plan has been very successful, providing critical data to guide management actions that otherwise may not have occurred and, opportunistically, provided data for other native species in the Elwha River. Implementing adaptive management provided mixed results and was at times hindered by divergent management goals among project partners, the inflexibility of the Endangered Species Act regulatory requirements as implemented for this project, and conflicting information among guidance documents. We learned that some metrics and triggers in the plan were ill-defined or too difficult to measure in the field. In some cases, the performance indicators and/or triggers were successfully modified to incorporate what was learned; however, in other cases, we were unable to revise the values due to differing opinions among partners. The ability to reach consensus on revised triggers appeared to be influenced by the recovery trajectory of the species involved. The implemented adaptive management strategy resulted in substantial collaboration and learning, which resulted in revised management strategies, but was imperfect. Sufficient long-term funding is necessary to implement a well-designed monitoring program and could benefit from including a defined leadership position to shepherd and facilitate a multi-stakeholder adaptive management program. Additionally, incorporating adaptive management into legally binding conditions under the Endangered Species Act is feasible, but requires substantial pre-planning in close coordination with regulatory agencies.

Washington↗
USGS2001

Relations among geology, physiography, land use, and stream habitat conditions in the Buffalo and Current River systems, Missouri and Arkansas

This study investigated links between drainage-basin characteristics and stream habitat conditions in the Buffalo National River, Arkansas and the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Missouri. It was designed as an associative study - the two parks were divided into their principle tributary drainage basins and then basin-scale and stream-habitat data sets were gathered and compared between them. Analyses explored the relative influence of different drainage-basin characteristics on stream habitat conditions. They also investigated whether a relation between land use and stream characteristics could be detected after accounting for geologic and physiographic differences among drainage basins. Data were collected for three spatial scales: tributary drainage basins, tributary stream reaches, and main-stem river segments of the Current and Buffalo Rivers. Tributary drainage-basin characteristics were inventoried using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and included aspects of drainage-basin physiography, geology, and land use. Reach-scale habitat surveys measured channel longitudinal and cross-sectional geometry, substrate particle size and embeddedness, and indicators of channel stability. Segment-scale aerial-photo based inventories measured gravel-bar area, an indicator of coarse sediment load, along main-stem rivers. Relations within and among data sets from each spatial scale were investigated using correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. Study basins encompassed physiographically distinct regions of the Ozarks. The Buffalo River system drains parts of the sandstone-dominated Boston Mountains and of the carbonate-dominated Springfield and Salem Plateaus. The Current River system is within the Salem Plateau. Analyses of drainage-basin variables highlighted the importance of these physiographic differences and demonstrated links among geology, physiography, and land-use patterns. Buffalo River tributaries have greater relief, steeper slopes, and more streamside bluffs than the Current River tributaries. Land use patterns in both river systems correlate with physiography - cleared land area is negatively associated with drainage-basin average slope. Both river systems are dominantly forested (0-35 per-cent cleared land), however, the potential for landscape disturbance may be greater in the Buffalo River system where a larger proportion of cleared land occurs on steep slopes (>15 degrees). When all drainage basins are grouped together, reach-scale channel characteristics show the strongest relations with drainage-basin physiography. Bankfull channel geometry and residual pool dimensions are positively correlated with drainage area and topographic relief variables. After accounting for differences in drainage area, channel dimensions in Buffalo River tributaries tend to be larger than in Current River tributaries. This trend is consistent with the flashy runoff and large storm flows that can be generated in rugged, sandstone-dominate terrain. Substrate particle size is also most strongly associated with physiography; particle size is positively correlated with topographic relief variables. When tributaries are subset by river system, relations with geology and land use variables become apparent. Buffalo River tributaries with larger proportions of carbonate bedrock and cleared land area have shallower channels, better-sorted, gravel-rich substrate, and more eroding banks than those with little cleared land and abundant sandstone bedrock. Gravel-bar area on the Buffalo River main stem was also larger within 1-km of carbonate-rich tributary junctions. Because geology and cleared land are themselves correlated, relations with anthropogenic and natural factors could often not be separated. Channel characteristics in the Current River system show stronger associations with physiography than with land use. Channels are shallower and have finer substrates in the less rugged, karst-rich, western basins than in the

Arkansas, Missouri↗
USGS2015

Amphibole reaction rims as a record of pre-eruptive magmatic heating: An experimental approach

Magmatic minerals record the pre-eruptive timescales of magma ascent and mixing in crustal reservoirs and conduits. Investigations of the mineral records of magmatic processes are fundamental to our understanding of what controls eruption style, as ascent rates and magma mixing processes are well known to control and/or trigger potentially hazardous explosive eruptions. Thus, amphibole reaction rims are often used to infer pre-eruptive magma dynamics, and in particular to estimate magma ascent rates. However, while several experimental studies have investigated amphibole destabilization during decompression, only two investigated thermal destabilization relevant to magma mixing processes. This study examines amphibole decomposition experimentally through isobaric heating of magnesio-hornblende phenocrysts within a natural high-silica andesite glass. The experiments first equilibrated for 24 h at 870 °C and 140 MPa at H 2 O-saturated conditions and ƒO 2 ∼ Re–ReO prior to rapid heating to 880, 900, or 920 °C and hold times of 3–48 h. At 920 °C, rim thicknesses increased from 17 μm after 3 h, to 55 μm after 12 h, and became pseudomorphs after longer durations. At 900 °C, rim thicknesses increased from 7 μm after 3 h, to 80 μm after 24 h, to pseudomorphs after longer durations. At 880 °C, rim thicknesses increased from 7 μm after 3 h, to 18 μm after 36 h, to pseudomorphs after 48 h. Reaction rim microlites vary from 5–16 μm in size, with no systematic relationship between crystal size and the duration or magnitude of heating. Time-averaged rim microlite growth rates decrease steadily with increasing experimental duration (from to 3.1 to ). Time-averaged microlite nucleation rates also decrease with increasing experimental duration (from to 5.3 mm −3 s −1 ). There is no systematic relationship between time-averaged growth or nucleation rates and the magnitude of the heating step. Ortho- and clinopyroxene together constitute 57–90 modal % mineralogy in each reaction rim. At constant temperature, clinopyroxene abundances decrease with increasing experimental duration, from 72 modal % (3 h at 900 °C) to 0% (48 h at 880 °C, and 36 h at 900 and 920 °C). Fe–Ti oxides increase from 6–12 modal % (after 3–6 h) to 26–34 modal % (after 36–48 h). Plagioclase occurs in relatively minor amounts (<1–11 modal %), with anorthite contents that increase from An56 to An88 from 3 to 36 h of heating. Distal glass compositions (>500 μm from reacted amphibole) are consistent with inter-microlite rim glasses (71.3–77.7 wt.% SiO 2 ) within a given experiment and there is a weakly positive correlation between increasing run duration and inter-microlite melt SiO 2 (68.9–78.5 wt.%). Our results indicate that experimental heating-induced amphibole reaction rims have thicknesses, textures, and mineralogies consistent with many of the natural reaction rims seen at arc-andesite volcanoes. They are also texturally consistent with experimental decompression reaction rims. On this basis it may be challenging to distinguish between decompression and heating mechanisms in nature.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2007

Surficial sediment character of the New York-New Jersey offshore continental shelf region: A GIS compilation

Broad continental shelf regions such as the New York Bight are the product of a complex geologic history and dynamic oceanographic processes, dominated by the Holocene marine transgression (>100 m sea-level rise) following the end of the last Pleistocene ice advance ~ 20,000 years ago. The area of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (U.S. EEZ) territory, extending 200 nautical miles seaward from the coast, is larger than the continental U.S. and contains submerged landforms that provide a variety of natural functions and societal benefits, such as: critical habitats for fisheries, ship navigation and homeland security, and engineering activities (i.e. oil and gas platforms, pipeline and cable routes, potential wind-energy-generation sites). Some parts of the continental margins, particularly inner-continental shelf regions, also contain unconsolidated hard-mineral deposits such as sand and gravel that are regarded as potential aggregate resources to meet or augment needs not met by onshore deposits (Williams, 1992). The present distribution of surficial sediment off the northeastern United States is shaped from the deposits left by the last glaciation and reflects the cumulative effects of sediment erosion, transport, sorting, and deposition by storm and tidal processes during the Holocene rise in sea level. As a result, the sediments on the sea floor represent both an historical record of former conditions and a guide to possible future sedimentary environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) through the Coastal and Marine Geology Program, in cooperation with the University of Colorado and other partners, has compiled extant sediment character and textural data as well as other geologic information on the sea floor from all regions around the U.S. into the usSEABED data system (Reid and others, 2005; Buczkowski and others, 2006; Reid and others, 2006). The usSEABED system, which contains information on sediment grain size and lithology for more than 340,500 stations within the U.S. EEZ. has been developed and populated with data as part of the USGS Marine Aggregate Resources and Processes and the National Benthic Habitats projects in order to provide the base-line data needed to update the current maps of offshore surficial geologic character and sediment distribution. The maps are also used to characterize benthic sea floor environments important for marine ecosystems. U.S. Geological Survey, Data Series 118 (Reid and others, 2005), of the usSEABED data release series, represents the combined efforts of the USGS and several other government agencies to provide a unified resource for accessing and preserving records of U.S. east coast sea floor geologic information and sediment texture data. For this present report, we have chosen to focus on the New York-New Jersey region, an area that has been intensely studied by the USGS for many years to address many complex issues. This report illustrates the uses of the usSEABED database for GIS applications, while offering additional insight into the resources and data available from the USGS and its collaborative institutions. This report is based on data contained in U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 118 (Reid and others, 2005) and shows an assortment of example GIS products that are possible using usSEABED. All data are intended to be GIS-ready and should not require any additional cleanup, formatting, or renaming of fields in order to use the data in a Geographic Information System. This project employs the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcView™ software. Many of these maps were made as part of the ongoing USGS study to assess marine aggregate resources offshore New York and New Jersey, but these maps can serve many other purposes. The marine science community, educators, students and others are encouraged to use these data to generate GIS products for their own purposes. The objectives of the Marine Aggregate Resources and Processes project are to produce a series of new geologic maps and reports of the sea floor that will provide scientific insights into the character and geologic development of U.S. continental margins and to use these maps and information to assess the potential availability of offshore sand and gravel resources. The mapping and aggregate resource assessments are being conducted on a national scale using the usSEABED data base as described in Williams and others (2003). Potential uses for these data include: (1) defining the geological variability of the sea floor in relation to benthic habitat diversity; (2) improving our understanding of the processes that control the distribution and transport of bottom sediments and benthic habitats; (3) locating aggregate resources for beach nourishment and industrial applications; and (4) providing a detailed geospatial framework for future marine science research, monitoring, and management activities. The initial assessments are in progress for the New York Bight and Louisiana offshore areas.

New Jersey, New York↗
USGS2013

Borehole-explosion and air-gun data acquired in the 2011 Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP), southern California: description of the survey

The Imperial and Coachella Valleys are being formed by active plate-tectonic processes. From the Imperial Valley southward into the Gulf of California, plate motions are rifting the continent apart. In the Coachella Valley, the plates are sliding past one another along the San Andreas and related faults (fig. 1). These processes build the stunning landscapes of the region, but also produce damaging earthquakes. Rupture of the southern section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF), from the Coachella Valley to the Mojave Desert, is believed to be the greatest natural hazard that California will face in the near future. With an estimated magnitude between 7.2 and 8.1, such an event would result in violent shaking, loss of life, and disruption of infrastructure (freeways, aqueducts, power, petroleum, and communication lines) that might bring much of southern California to a standstill. As part of the nation’s efforts to avert a catastrophe of this magnitude, a number of projects have been undertaken to more fully understand and mitigate the effects of such an event. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP), funded jointly by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), seeks to understand, through seismic imaging, the structure of the Earth surrounding the SAF, including the sedimentary basins on which cities are built. The principal investigators (PIs) of this collaborative project represent the USGS, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech), California Institute of Technology (Caltech), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (Scripps), University of Nevada, Reno (UNR), and Stanford University. SSIP will create images of underground structure and sediments in the Imperial and Coachella Valleys and adjacent mountain ranges to investigate the earthquake hazards posed to cities in this area. Importantly, the images will help determine the underground geometry of the SAF, how deep the sediments are, and how fast earthquake energy can travel through the sediments. All of these factors determine how hard the earth will shake during a major earthquake. If we can improve on our understanding of how and where earthquakes will occur, and how strong their resultant shaking will be, then buildings can be designed or retrofitted accordingly in order to resist damage and collapse, and emergency plans can be adequately prepared. In addition, SSIP will investigate the processes of rifting and magmatism in the Salton Trough in order to better understand this important plate-boundary region. The Salton Trough is a unique rift in that subsidence is accompanied by huge influxes of infilling sediment from the Colorado River. Volcanism that accompanies the subsidence here is muted by these influxes of sediment. The Salton Trough, in the central part of the Imperial Valley, is apparently made up of entirely new crust: young sediment in the upper crust and basaltic intrusive rocks in the mid-to-lower crust (Fuis and others, 1984). Similar to the ultrasound and computed tomography (CT) scans performed by the medical industry, seismic imaging is a collection of techniques that enable scientists to obtain a picture of what is underground. The petroleum industry routinely uses these techniques to search for oil and gas at relatively shallow depths; however, the scope of this project demanded that we image as much as 30 km into the Earth’s crust. This project generated and recorded seismic waves, similar to sound waves, which move downward into the Earth and are bent (refracted) or echoed (reflected) back to the surface. SSIP acquired data in a series of intersecting lines that cover key areas of the Salton Trough. The sources of sound waves were detonations (shots) in deep boreholes, designed to create energy equivalent to magnitude 1–2 earthquakes. The study region routinely experiences earthquakes of these magnitudes, but earthquakes are not located in such a way as to permit us to create the detailed images we need for earthquake hazard assessment. Air gun bursts, generated in the Salton Sea along extensions of our onshore seismic lines, also were utilized as sound-wave sources. Temporary deployments of portable land seismometers, as well as ocean-bottom seismometers (OBSs) on the floor of the Salton Sea, recorded the energy from the land shots and air gun bursts. SSIP is similar to the Los Angeles Regional Seismic Experiments of 1994 and 1999 (LARSE I and II, respectively; Murphy and others, 1996; Fuis and others, 2001). The LARSE surveys demonstrated that the USGS and collaborators can safely and effectively conduct seismic imaging surveys in urban and nonurban areas, on lands owned and/or managed by many different types of agencies and entities. Information was produced that could not have been obtained any other way, and this information was key to changing the leading ideas about earthquake hazards at that time in the Los Angeles region. These surveys produced no significant environmental impact or damage to structures, and they did not trigger earthquakes.

California↗
USGS2026

Small creatures, big challenge: A review of current knowledge and assessment of research needs to inform water withdrawal management for the Duck River's freshwater mussel fauna

The Duck River is a remarkable national resource, boasting outstanding biodiversity (Ahlstedt et al. 2017). It contains 151 fish species, over 60 mussel species, and 22 snail species, many of which are federally listed (Etnier and Starnes 1993; Johnson et al. 2013; Ahlstedt et al. 2017; Womble and Rosenberger 2025a). The Duck River watershed is at a pivotal time in its management and ecological history due to significant growth in human population and economic activity. The consequent increase in surface water demand presents challenges for sustainable water resource management. The Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) has permitted or proposed to permit eight water utilities to withdraw over 77 million gallons per day (mgd) from the Duck River, representing > 40% increase from previously permitted amounts (USFWS 2025). On November 20, 2024, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee signed Executive Order No 108 to ensure long-term stability of the Duck River watershed through balancing economic growth, water resource management, and environmental conservation. Some primary components of this plan are the creation of a Comprehensive Regional Drought Management Plan, the development of a Habitat Conservation Plan, and the establishment of the Duck River Watershed Planning Partnership (DRWPP). Although the planning partnership is not focused on a sole aspect of the Duck River, but the watershed as a whole, the mussel assemblages of the Duck River have been a particular focus due to their importance in providing ecosystem services, sensitivity to water quality, conservation status, and sensitivity to periodic drought conditions in this system. With multiple state and federal agencies involved in managing the Duck River’s unique water resources, a focused review on how future water management could affect the freshwater mussel communities in the Duck River will contribute to this process. Our objectives of this review are to: 1. Review the effects of changing flow regimes on mussels, with emphasis on the effect of droughts/low flows, highlighting key processes/factors affecting mussels. 2. Highlight critical data gaps that could allow future, evidence-based water management decisions in this system. 3. Propose research topics to address critical data gaps and enable evidence-based water management decisions that consider the needs of freshwater mussels. Freshwater mussels are a critical component of riverine ecosystems, providing ecosystem services including water filtration, nutrient cycling, and habitat provision (Vaughn et al. 2004; Haag 2012) that benefit human communities. Environmental flows, also referred to as ecological or e-flows, refer to the quantity, timing, and quality of water flows necessary to maintain the ecological health of rivers, wetlands, and other aquatic ecosystems (Acreman and Dunbar 2004; Acreman 2016). For freshwater mussels, environmental flows include maintaining a flow regime and associated water quality regimes that are favorable for both juveniles and adults while also seasonally supporting host fish and the survival of settling glochidia (i.e., larval mussels) in suitable environments (Gates et al. 2015). Freshwater mussels are adapted to the natural flow regime of their native streams, including seasonal variability in flows. As sedentary filter feeders, mussels require adequate water flow to provide oxygen and food (Allen and Vaughn 2009); however, they also require periods of low flow to increase access to fish hosts and to ensure juveniles are not displaced (Gates et al 2015). Mussels are sensitive to water quality conditions, including pollutants, sedimentation, and artificial alterations of temperature and pH (Strayer and Malcom 2012). Mussel community characteristics, including presence, abundance, and species richness, generally increase with stream size (e.g., stream order); however, responses to changes in flow conditions are often species-specific, and the magnitude and timing of extreme flow conditions have more predictive power for mussel community response than general changes in flow (Lopez and Vaughn 2021). Complex hydraulic variables, such as relative shear stress and Reynolds number, can be strong predictors of mussel community responses because they combine simple hydraulic variables (e.g., velocity, depth) with stream channel characteristics, such as substrate composition and dynamics. Droughts directly and indirectly affect mussels by influencing their physiology, behavior, reproduction, and ecosystem roles. Mass mussel die-offs during droughts and low water conditions are widely documented (Vaughn et al. 2015; Sousa et al. 2018; Dubose et al. 2019). Droughts can also lead to a shift in mussel community composition, with drought-tolerant species becoming more dominant while more sensitive species experience declines (Galbraith et al, 2010; Lopez et al. 2022; Vaughn and Atkinson 2025). Droughts affect mussels through direct mortality from stranding as well as physiological stress from altered water temperature and quality, reduced habitat and food availability and quality, increased predation and competition, disruption of reproductive cycles, and increased susceptibility to disease and pathogens. Although the effects of droughts, water withdrawals, and low flow conditions on mussels are an increasing area of study, there is a general paucity of data-driven consensus regarding optimal mitigation approaches and strategies (Cushway et al. 2024). Long-term management decisions regarding water withdrawals, particularly during extended or multi-year drought conditions, may consider factors beyond direct mortality such as the sublethal effects of drought and low flow conditions on freshwater mussels for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of prolonged low flows on freshwater mussels and aquatic communities.

Tennessee↗
USGS1978

Statistical inference from capture data on closed animal populations

The estimation of animal abundance is an important problem in both the theoretical and applied biological sciences. Serious work to develop estimation methods began during the 1950s, with a few attempts before that time. The literature on estimation methods has increased tremendously during the past 25 years (Cormack 1968, Seber 1973). However, in large part, the problem remains unsolved. Past efforts toward comprehensive and systematic estimation of density (D) or population size (N) have been inadequate, in general. While more than 200 papers have been published on the subject, one is generally left without a unified approach to the estimation of abundance of an animal population This situation is unfortunate because a number of pressing research problems require such information. In addition, a wide array of environmental assessment studies and biological inventory programs require the estimation of animal abundance. These needs have been further emphasized by the requirement for the preparation of Environmental Impact Statements imposed by the National Environmental Protection Act in 1970. This publication treats inference procedures for certain types of capture data on closed animal populations. This includes multiple capture-recapture studies (variously called capture-mark-recapture, mark-recapture, or tag-recapture studies) involving livetrapping techniques and removal studies involving kill traps or at least temporary removal of captured individuals during the study. Animals do not necessarily need to be physically trapped; visual sightings of marked animals and electrofishing studies also produce data suitable for the methods described in this monograph. To provide a frame of reference for what follows, we give an exampled of a capture-recapture experiment to estimate population size of small animals using live traps. The general field experiment is similar for all capture-recapture studies (a removal study is, of course, slightly different). A typical field experiment is the following: a number of traps are positioned in the area to be studied, say 144 traps in a 12 X 12 grid, 7 m apart. At the beginning of the study (j=1) a sample size of n 1 is taken from the population, the animals are tagged and marked for future identification, and then returned to the population, usually at the same point where they were trapped. After allowing time of the marked and unmarked animals to mix, a second sample (j=2, often the following day) or n 2 animals is then taken.the second sample normally contains both marked and unmarked animals. The unmarked animals are marked and all captured animals are released back into the population. This procedure continues for t periods where t ≥ 2. The animals should be marked in such a way that the capture-recapture history of each animal caught during the study is known. In practice, toes are often clipped to uniquely identify individual animals (Taber and Cowan 1969) or serially numbered tags are sometimes used on larger animals. Such capture studies are classified by 2 schemes that are directly related to what class of models are appropriate and what parameters can be estimated. The first classification addresses the subject of closure. Closure usually means the size of the population is constant over the priod of investigation, i.e., no recruitment (birth or immigration) or losses (death or emigration). This is a strong assumption and, of course, never completely true in a natural biological population. For greater generality, we define closure to mean there are no unknown changes to the initial population. In practice, this means known losses (trap death), or deliberate removals) do not violate our definition of closure. If the study is properly designed, closure can be met at least approximately. Open or nonclosed populations explicitly allow for one or more types of recruitment or losses to operate during the course of the experiment (Jolly 1965, Seber 1965, Robson 1969, Pollock 1975). Only closed populations will be considered in this monograph. The second classification depends on the type of data collected with 2 possibilities occurring (Pollock 1974, unpublished doctoral dissertation, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York): (1) only information on the recovery of marked animals is available for each sampling occasion, j, j=1, 2, ... t. (2) information on both marked and unmarked animals is available for each sampling occasion, j, j=1, 2, ... t. In case (1), population size (N) is not identifiable, however, other parameters can be estimated (Brownie et al. 1978). In case (2), N can be estimated using a wide variety of approaches depending upon what we wish to assume. Only case (2) will be dealt with here.

Wildlife Monographs↗
USGS2008

Loess record of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition on the northern and central Great Plains, USA

Various lines of evidence support conflicting interpretations of the timing, abruptness, and nature of climate change in the Great Plains during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Loess deposits and paleosols on both the central and northern Great Plains provide a valuable record that can help address these issues. A synthesis of new and previously reported optical and radiocarbon ages indicates that the Brady Soil, which marks the boundary between late Pleistocene Peoria Loess and Holocene Bignell Loess, began forming after a reduction in the rate of Peoria Loess accumulation that most likely occurred between 13.5 and 15 cal ka. Brady Soil formation spanned all or part of the B??lling-Aller??d episode (approximately 14.7-12.9 cal ka) and all of the Younger Dryas episode (12.9-11.5 cal ka) and extended at least 1000 years beyond the end of the Younger Dryas. The Brady Soil was buried by Bignell Loess sedimentation beginning around 10.5-9 cal ka, and continuing episodically through the Holocene. Evidence for a brief increase in loess influx during the Younger Dryas is noteworthy but very limited. Most late Quaternary loess accumulation in the central Great Plains was nonglacigenic and was under relatively direct climatic control. Thus, Brady Soil formation records climatic conditions that minimized eolian activity and allowed effective pedogenesis, probably through relatively high effective moisture. Optical dating of loess in North Dakota supports correlation of the Leonard Paleosol on the northern Great Plains with the Brady Soil. Thick loess in North Dakota was primarily derived from the Missouri River floodplain; thus, its stratigraphy may in part reflect glacial influence on the Missouri River. Nonetheless, the persistence of minimal loess accumulation and soil formation until 10 cal ka at our North Dakota study site is best explained by a prolonged interval of high effective moisture correlative with the conditions that favored Brady Soil formation. Burial of both the Brady Soil and the Leonard Paleosol by renewed loess influx probably represents eolian system response that occurred when gradual change toward a drier climate eventually crossed the threshold for eolian activity. Overall, the loess-paleosol sequences of the central and northern Great Plains record a broad peak of high effective moisture across the late Pleistocene to Holocene boundary, rather than well-defined climatic episodes corresponding to the B??lling-Aller??d and Younger Dryas episodes in the North Atlantic region. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2009

Coastal groundwater dynamics off Santa Barbara, California: combining geochemical tracers, electromagnetic seepmeters, and electrical resistivity

This paper presents repeat field measurements of 222 Rn and 223,224,226,228 Ra, electromagnetic seepage meter-derived advective fluxes, and multi-electrode, stationary and continuous marine resistivity surveys collected between November 2005 and April 2007 to study coastal groundwater dynamics within a marine beach in Santa Barbara, California. The study provides insight into magnitude and dynamics of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and associated nutrient loadings into near-shore coastal waters, where the predominant SGD drivers can be both spatially and temporally separated. Rn-222 and 223,224,226,228 Ra were utilized to quantify the total and saline contribution, respectively, of SGD. The two short-lived 224,223 Ra isotopes provided an estimate of apparent near-shore water mass age, as well as an estimate of the Ra-derived eddy diffusion coefficient, K h ( 224 Ra = 2.86 ± 0.7 m 2 s −1 ; 223 Ra = 1.32 ± 0.5 m 2 s −1 ). Because 222 Rn ( t ½ = 3.8 day) and 224 Ra ( t ½ = 3.66 day) have comparable half-lives and production terms, they were used in concert to examine respective water column removal rates. Electromagnetic seepage meters recorded the physical, bi-directional exchange across the sediment/water interface, which ranged from −6.7 to 14.5 cm day −1 , depending on the sampling period and position relative to the low tide line. Multi-day time-series 222 Rn measurements in the near-shore water column yielded total (saline + fresh) SGD rates that ranged from 3.1 ± 2.6 to 9.2 ± 0.8 cm day −1 , depending on the sampling season. Offshore 226 Ra ( t ½ = 1600 year) and 222 Rn gradients were used with the calculated K h values to determine seabed flux estimates (dpm m −2 day −1 ), which were then converted into SGD rates (7.1 and 7.9 cm day −1 , respectively). Lastly, SGD rates were used to calculate associated nutrient loads for the near-shore coastal waters off Santa Barbara. Depending on both the season and the SGD method utilized, the following SGD-derived nutrient inputs were computed (mol per day per meter of shoreline): NH 4 + = 0.06–0.29 mol day −1 m −1 ; SiO 4 = 0.22–0.29 mol day −1 m −1 ; PO 4 3− = 0.04–0.17 mol day −1 m −1 ; [NO 2 − + NO 3 − ] = 0–0.52 mol day −1 m −1 ; dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) = 0.01–0.17 mol day −1 m −1 , and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) = 0.08–0.09 mol day −1 m −1 . Compared to the ephemeral nature of fluvial and marine inputs into this region, such SGD-derived loadings can provide a sustained source of select nutrients to the coastal waters off Santa Barbara, California that should be accounted for in mass balance estimates.

California↗
USGS2001

Constraining controls on carbonate sequences with high-resolution chronostratigraphy: Upper Miocene, Cabo de Gata region, SE Spain

A high-resolution chronostratigraphy has been developed for Miocene shallow-water carbonate strata in the Cabo de Gata region of SE Spain for evaluation of local, regional and global factors that controlled platform architecture prior to and during the Messinian salinity crisis. Paleomagnetic data were collected from strata at three localities. Mean natural remanent magnetization (NRM) ranges between 1.53 ?? 10-8 and 5.2 ?? 10-3 Am2/kg. Incremental thermal and alternating field demagnetization isolated the characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM). Rock magnetic studies show that the dominant magnetic mineral is magnetite, but mixtures of magnetite and hematite occur. A composite chronostratigraphy was derived from five stratigraphic sections. Regional stratigraphic data, biostratigraphic data, and an 40Ar/39Ar date of 8.5 ?? 0.1 Ma, for an interbedded volcanic flow, place the strata in geomagnetic polarity Chrons C4r to C3r. Sequence-stratigraphic and diagenetic evidence indicate a major unconformity at the base of depositional sequence (DS)3 that contains a prograding reef complex, suggesting that approximately 250 000 yr of record (Subchrons C3Br.2r to 3Br.1r) are missing near the Messinian-Tortonian boundary. Correlation to the GPTS shows that the studied strata represent five third- to fourth-order DSs. Basal units are temperate to subtropical ramps (DS1A, DS1B, DS2); these are overlain by subtropical to tropical reefal platforms (DS3), which are capped by subtropical to tropical cyclic carbonates (Terminal Carbonate Complex, TCC). Correlation of the Cabo de Gata record to the Melilla area of Morocco, and the Sorbas basin of Spain indicate that early - Late Tortonian ramp strata from these areas are partially time-equivalent. Similar strata are extensively developed in the Western Mediterranean and likely were influenced by a cool climate or influx of nutrients during an overall rise in global sea-level. After ramp deposition, a sequence boundary (SB3) in Cabo de Gata correlates with a sequence boundary in Morocco and a published third-order eustatic fall suggesting at least a partial eustatic control for the sequence boundary. Coral reefs began to develop earlier in Cabo de Gata than at Melilla or Sorbas, arguing for local factors affecting this major environmental transition. Later Messinian reefs (DS3) from all areas are time-equivalent, suggesting a regional or global control on their formation. Some Halimeda-rich horizons in the Western Mediterranean are not time-equivalent event strata as hypothesized by others. Correlation of the relative sea-level curve for the fringing reef complex (DS3) with a published eustatic curve suggests at least a partial third-order global eustatic control for the highstand part of the sequence. Downstepping DS3 reefs and initial subaerial exposure of earlier DS3 reef strata approximately correlate with initiation of a series of subaerial unconformities in the South Pacific. The longer-term relative fall in sea-level during DS3 downstepping reef progradation does not correlate with a published third-order eustatic fall. Eustatic sea-level fluctuations may have been associated with initiation of the Mediterranean Messinian salinity crisis, but the longer-term fall may have been linked to tectonic uplift in the Mediterranean region. Widespread distribution of 'TCC-style' cycles of approximately the same age suggests a regional (Western Mediterranean) or global control on sea-level change responsible for TCC cycles. In addition, four subaerial exposure-capped TCC cycles may correlate with similar subaerial unconformities in the South Pacific, suggesting at least a partial eustatic control on TCC cyclicity. The high rates of relative sea-level change needed to generate a minimum of 25-30 m sea-level changes associated with each cycle are consistent with glacio-eustacy along with rapid evaporitic drawdown in the Mediterranean. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2001

Large carbon isotope fractionation associated with oxidation of methyl halides by methylotrophic bacteria

The largest biological fractionations of stable carbon isotopes observed in nature occur during production of methane by methanogenic archaea. These fractionations result in substantial (as much as ≈70‰) shifts in δ 13 C relative to the initial substrate. We now report that a stable carbon isotopic fractionation of comparable magnitude (up to 70‰) occurs during oxidation of methyl halides by methylotrophic bacteria. We have demonstrated biological fractionation with whole cells of three methylotrophs (strain IMB-1, strain CC495, and strain MB2) and, to a lesser extent, with the purified cobalamin-dependent methyltransferase enzyme obtained from strain CC495. Thus, the genetic similarities recently reported between methylotrophs, and methanogens with respect to their pathways for C 1 -unit metabolism are also reflected in the carbon isotopic fractionations achieved by these organisms. We found that only part of the observed fractionation of carbon isotopes could be accounted for by the activity of the corrinoid methyltransferase enzyme, suggesting fractionation by enzymes further along the degradation pathway. These observations are of potential biogeochemical significance in the application of stable carbon isotope ratios to constrain the tropospheric budgets for the ozone-depleting halocarbons, methyl bromide and methyl chloride. Methyl bromide (MeBr) and methyl chloride (MeCl) are, respectively, the most abundant volatile bromo- and chlorocarbons in the troposphere and are major contributors to stratospheric ozone destruction (1). Both compounds have natural and human-influenced sources and a predominant sink by reaction with OH in the troposphere (2–4). MeBr also has a bacterial soil sink (5) that represents about 20% of the estimated total removal from the troposphere, and it is likely that a soil sink of similar magnitude exists for MeCl (6). Hence, if an isotopic fractionation is associated with the soil sink, it will influence the isotopic compositions of MeBr and MeCl in the lower atmosphere (7). The δ 13 C value of industrially produced MeBr ranges between −43.5‰ and −66.4‰ (7), but δ 13 C values of tropospheric MeBr and natural sources are not yet known. The δ 13 C of atmospheric MeCl has been measured from −22‰ to −45‰ (8, 9). If carbon isotope ratios are to be used to constrain the budgets of these methyl halides, it is essential to determine the extent of carbon isotope fractionation that occurs during biological degradation of these compounds. Methylotrophic bacteria use C 1 compounds, which are simple organic molecules that contain no carbon–carbon bonds. Strains IMB-1, CC495, and MB2 are as-yet-unnamed facultative methylotrophs isolated from agricultural soil, woodland leaf litter, and coastal seawater, respectively (10–13), environments where methyl halides are produced. They are members of the α subgroup of the Proteobacteria . On the basis of 16S rRNA gene sequences, strains IMB-1 and CC495 show some phylogenetic alignment with the genus Rhizobium (10, 11) and are very closely related to the new genus Pseudoaminobacte r (I. McDonald, personal communication). Strain MB2 aligns within the Ruegeria clade [J. K. Schaefer, K. D. Goodwin, I. R. McDonald, J. C. Murrell and R.S.O., unpublished work]. All of these aerobic bacteria are methylotrophs in that they can grow by using MeBr or MeCl as their sole carbon source, but they do not metabolize methane. They oxidize MeBr, MeCl, and methyl iodide (MeI) to CO 2 . Soil bacteria are known to consume MeBr at the ambient tropospheric mixing ratio of around 10 parts per trillion by volume (5). Preliminary experiments with strain IMB-1 indicate that it can oxidize MeBr at these mixing ratios** and is therefore likely to be characteristic of bacteria associated with MeBr uptake by soils. We examined δ 13 C of MeCl, MeBr, and MeI during oxidation by whole-cell suspensions of IMB-1 and CC495 and also the change in δ 13 C values of the three methyl halides during oxidation by the marine strain MB2. In addition, we measured the fractionation of carbon isotopes during formation of methane thiol (MeSH) from MeCl by the purified cobalamin-dependent enzyme, halomethane:bisulphide/halide ion methyltransferase (11) from CC495, to determine whether this initial step in MeCl degradation could account for the observed fractionation by whole cells. Finally, we determined the fractionation associated with the degradation of MeBr during field studies with agricultural soil by monitoring MeBr concentration and δ 13 C of MeBr in the headspace of flux chambers under fumigation conditions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2020

Segmentation and supercycles: A catalog of earthquake rupture patterns from the Sumatran Sunda Megathrust and other well-studied faults worldwide

After more than 100 years of earthquake research, earthquake forecasting, which relies on knowledge of past fault rupture patterns, has become the foundation for societal defense against seismic natural disasters. A concept that has come into focus more recently is that rupture segmentation and cyclicity can be complex, and that a characteristic earthquake model is too simple to adequately describe much of fault behavior. Nevertheless, recognizable patterns in earthquake recurrence emerge from long, high resolution, spatially distributed chronologies. Researchers now seek to discover the maximum, minimum, and typical rupture areas; the distribution, variability, and spatial applicability of recurrence intervals; and patterns of earthquake clustering in space and time. The term “supercycle” has been used to describe repeating longer periods of elastic strain accumulation and release that involve multiple fault ruptures. However, this term has become very broadly applied, lumping together several distinct phenomena that likely have disparate underlying causes. We divide earthquake cycle behavior into four major classes that have different implications for seismic hazard and fault mechanics: 1) quasi-periodic similar ruptures, 2) clustered similar ruptures, 3) clustered complementary ruptures/rupture cascades, and 4) superimposed cycles. “Segmentation” is likewise an ambiguous term; we identify “master segments” and “asperities” as defined by barriers to fault rupture. These barriers may be persistent (rarely or never traversed), frequent (occasionally traversed), or ephemeral (changing location from cycle to cycle). We compile a catalog of the historical and paleoseismic evidence that currently exists for each of these types of behavior on major well-studied faults worldwide. Due to the unique level of paleoseismic and paleogeodetic detail provided by the coral microatoll technique, the Sumatran Sunda megathrust provides one of the most complete records over multiple earthquake rupture cycles. Long historical records of earthquakes along the South American and Japanese subduction zones are also vital contributors to our catalog, along with additional data compiled from subduction zones in Cascadia, Alaska, and Middle America, as well as the North Anatolian and Dead Sea strike-slip faults in the Middle East. We find that persistent and frequent barriers, rupture cascades, superimposed cycles, and quasi-periodic similar ruptures are common features of most major faults. Clustered similar ruptures do not appear to be common, but broad overlap zones between neighboring segments do occur. Barrier regions accommodate slip through reduced interseismic coupling, slow slip events, and/or smaller more localized ruptures, and are frequently associated with structural features such as subducting seafloor relief or fault trace discontinuities. This catalog of observations provides a basis for exploring and modeling root causes of rupture segmentation and cycle behavior. We expect that researchers will recognize similar behavior styles on other major faults around the world.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2009

Sand resources, regional geology, and coastal processes of the Chandeleur Islands Coastal System: An evaluation of the Breton National Wildlife Refuge

Breton National Wildlife Refuge, the Chandeleur Islands chain in Louisiana, provides habitat and nesting areas for wildlife and is an initial barrier protecting New Orleans from storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with the University of New Orleans Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Sciences undertook an intensive study that included (1) an analysis of island change based on historical maps and remotely sensed shoreline and topographic data; (2) a series of lidar surveys at 3- to 4-month intervals after Hurricane Katrina to determine barrier island recovery potential; (3) a discussion of sea level rise and effects on the islands; (4) an analysis of sea floor evolution and sediment dynamics in the refuge over the past 150 years; (5) an assessment of the local sediment transport and sediment resource availability based on the bathymetric and subbottom data; (6) a carefully selected core collection effort to groundtruth the geophysical data and more fully characterize the sediments composing the islands and surrounds; (7) an additional survey of the St. Bernard Shoals to assess their potential as a sand resource; and (8) a modeling study to numerically simulate the potential response of the islands to the low-intensity, intermediate, and extreme events likely to affect the refuge over the next 50 years. Results indicate that the islands have become fragmented and greatly diminished in subaerial extent over time: the southern islands retreating landward as they reorganize into subaerial features, the northern islands remaining in place. Breton Island, because maintenance of the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MRGO) outer bar channel requires dredging, is deprived of sand sufficient to sustain itself. Regional sediment transport trends indicate that large storms are extremely effective in transporting sand and controlling the shoreline development and barrier island geometry. Sand is transported north and south from a divergent zone near Monkey Bayou at the southern end of the Chandeleur Islands. Numerical simulation of waves and sediment transport supports the geophysical results and indicates that vast areas of the lower shoreface are affected and are undergoing erosion during storm events, that there is little or no fair weather mechanism to rework material into the littoral system, and that as a result, there is a net loss of sediment from the system. Lidar surveys revealed that the island chain immediately after Hurricane Katrina lost about 84 percent of its area and about 92 percent of its prestorm volume. Marsh platforms that supported the islands’ sand prior to the storm were reduced in width by more than one-half. Repeated lidar surveys document that in places the shoreline has retreated about 100 m under the relatively low-energy waves since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita; however, this retreat is nonuniform. Recent high-resolution geophysical surveys of the sea floor and subsurface within 5–6 km of the Chandeleur Islands during 2006 and 2007 show that, in addition to the sand that is rebuilding portions of the island chain, a large volume of sand is contained in Hewes Point, in an extensive subtidal spit platform that has formed at the northern end of the Chandeleur Islands. Hewes Point appears to be the depositional terminus of the alongshore transport system. In the southern Chandeleurs, sand is being deposited in a broad tabular deposit near Breton Island called the southern offshore sand sheet. These two depocenters account for approximately 70 percent of the estimated sediment volume located in potential borrow sites. An additional large potential source of sand for restoration lies in the St. Bernard Shoals, which are estimated to contain approximately 200 × 10 6 m 3 of sand. Successful restoration planning for the Breton National Wildlife Refuge should mimic the natural processes of early stages of barrier island evolution including lateral transport to the flanks of the island chain from a centralized sand source that will ultimately enhance the ability of the islands to naturally build backbarrier marsh, dunes, and a continuous sandy shoreline. Barrier island sediment nourishment should be executed with the understanding that gulf shoreline erosion is inevitable but that island area can be maintained and enhanced during retreat (thus significantly prolonging the life of the island chain) with strategic sand placement.

Louisiana↗