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USGS2009

Regression equations for estimation of annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas using an L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach

Annual peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of dams, levees, and other flood-control structures; and for design of roads, bridges, and culverts. Annual peak-streamflow frequency represents the peak streamflow for nine recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 250, and 500 years. Common methods for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged or unmonitored watersheds are regression equations for each recurrence interval developed for one or more regions; such regional equations are the subject of this report. The method is based on analysis of annual peak-streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations (stations). Beginning in 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, began a 3-year investigation concerning the development of regional equations to estimate annual peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. The investigation focuses primarily on 638 stations with 8 or more years of data from undeveloped watersheds and other criteria. The general approach is explicitly limited to the use of L-moment statistics, which are used in conjunction with a technique of multi-linear regression referred to as PRESS minimization. The approach used to develop the regional equations, which was refined during the investigation, is referred to as the 'L-moment-based, PRESS-minimized, residual-adjusted approach'. For the approach, seven unique distributions are fit to the sample L-moments of the data for each of 638 stations and trimmed means of the seven results of the distributions for each recurrence interval are used to define the station specific, peak-streamflow frequency. As a first iteration of regression, nine weighted-least-squares, PRESS-minimized, multi-linear regression equations are computed using the watershed characteristics of drainage area, dimensionless main-channel slope, and mean annual precipitation. The residuals of the nine equations are spatially mapped, and residuals for the 10-year recurrence interval are selected for generalization to 1-degree latitude and longitude quadrangles. The generalized residual is referred to as the OmegaEM parameter and represents a generalized terrain and climate index that expresses peak-streamflow potential not otherwise represented in the three watershed characteristics. The OmegaEM parameter was assigned to each station, and using OmegaEM, nine additional regression equations are computed. Because of favorable diagnostics, the OmegaEM equations are expected to be generally reliable estimators of peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped and ungaged stream locations in Texas. The mean residual standard error, adjusted R-squared, and percentage reduction of PRESS by use of OmegaEM are 0.30log 10 , 0.86, and -21 percent, respectively. Inclusion of the OmegaEM parameter provides a substantial reduction in the PRESS statistic of the regression equations and removes considerable spatial dependency in regression residuals. Although the OmegaEM parameter requires interpretation on the part of analysts and the potential exists that different analysts could estimate different values for a given watershed, the authors suggest that typical uncertainty in the OmegaEM estimate might be about +or-0.10 10 . Finally, given the two ensembles of equations reported herein and those in previous reports, hydrologic design engineers and other analysts have several different methods, which represent different analytical tracks, to make comparisons of peak-streamflow frequency estimates for ungaged watersheds in the study area.

Texas↗

USGS2005

Environmental exposure modeling and monitoring of human pharmaceutical concentrations in the environment

Human pharmaceuticals are receiving increased attention as environmental contaminants. This is due to their biological activity and the number of monitoring programs focusing on analysis of these compounds in various environmental media and compartments. Risk assessments are needed to understand the implications of reported concentrations; a fundamental part of the risk assessment is an assessment of environmental exposures. The purpose of this chapter is to provide guidance on the use of predictive tools (e.g., models) and monitoring data in exposure assessments for pharmaceuticals in the environment. Methods to predict environmental concentrations from equations based on first principles are presented. These equations form the basis of existing GIS (geographic information systems)-based systems for understanding the spatial distribution of pharmaceuticals in the environment. The pharmaceutical assessment and transport (P h ATE), georeferenced regional exposure assessment tool for European rivers (GREAT-ER), and geographical information system (GIS)-ROUT models are reviewed and recommendations are provided concerning the design and execution of monitoring studies. Model predictions and monitoring data are compared to evaluate the relative utility of each approach in environmental exposure assessments. In summary, both models and monitoring data can be used to define representative exposure concentrations of pharmaceuticals in the environment in support of environmental risk assessments.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Intermountain west drought social science synthesis working group: Report to the National Climate Adaptation Science Center

Throughout the Intermountain West, there has been significant investment in understanding how social factors influence manager and citizen experiences of drought in particular locations. Yet there is still a gap in knowledge of how human dimensions of drought impacts, planning, and resilience are similar and different across cases and regions. Building on the natural science understanding developed by the USGS’ various ecological drought projects as well as a range of other place-based social science case studies of drought and its impacts, this project explored human dimensions of ecological drought across the intermountain west from a comparative, regional perspective. The Working Group brought together agency and university experts in the field of drought social science, including researchers affiliated with the North Central and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers (USGS), Western Water Assessment (a NOAA RISA program), the Northern Plains Climate Hub (USDA), and the USGS-supported SNAPP Ecological Drought Working Group. The group held three virtual meeting during Spring 2018 in preparation for an extended in-person workshop in June 2018 in Fort Collins, CO, followed by monthly calls to finalize products. The group’s objectives were to (1) integrate insights from existing social science studies of drought to identify commonalities and trends that generalize across cases while simultaneously accounting for the complexity experienced in particular places by individual decision makers, (2) develop a common lexicon and analytic framework for understanding drought across the Intermountain West from a social-ecological systems perspective, (3) identify emergent research themes, questions, and needs, (4) consider strategies for social scientists to contribute to drought management, (5) facilitate coordination among federal and university researchers for future collaborative activities, and (6) develop a typology of drought decision making that captured group insights. Project outputs included two conference sessions, a typology manuscript to be submitted by the end of FY19, and the conceptual framing of a rapid assessment methodology that was subsequently developed into a standalone project.

Cooperator Report↗

USGS2003

Irrigation-induced contamination of water, sediment, and biota in the western United States-synthesis of data from the National Irrigation Water Quality Program

In October 1985 the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), through the National Irrigation Water Quality Program (NIWQP), began a series of field investigations at 26 areas in the Western United States to determine whether irrigation drainage has had harmful effects on fish, wildlife, and humans or has reduced beneficial uses of water. In 1992 NIWQP initiated the Data Synthesis Project to evaluate data collected during the field investigations. Geologic, climatologic, and hydrologic data were evaluated and water, sediment, and biota from the 26 areas were analyzed to identify commonalities and dominant factors that result in irrigation-induced contamination of water and biota. Data collected for the 26 area investigations have been compiled and merged into a common data base. The structure of the data base is designed to enable assessment of relations between contaminant concentrations in water, sediment, and biota. The data base is available to the scientific community through the World Wide Web at URL http://www.usbr.gov/niwqp . Analysis of the data base for the Data Synthesis included use of summary statistics, factor analysis, and logistic regression. A Geographic Information System was used to store and analyze spatially oriented digital data such as land use, geology and evaporation rates. In the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) study areas, samples of water, bottom sediment, and biota were collected for trace-element and pesticide analysis. Contaminants most commonly associated with irrigation drainage were identified by comparing concentrations in water with established criteria. For surface water, the criteria used were typically chronic criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life. Because ground water can discharge to the surface where wildlife can be exposed to it, the criteria used for ground water were both the maximum contaminant levels (MCL's) for drinking water and the chronic criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life. Data collected by the NIWQP studies indicated that, in surface water, filtered and unfiltered samples had nearly the same concentrations of arsenic, boron, molybdenum, and selenium for concentrations greater than about 10 micrograms per liter. Therefore, in this concentration range, filtered concentrations can be directly compared to biological-effect levels developed for unfiltered samples. In the range of 1 to 10 micrograms per liter there may be a tendency for unfiltered arsenic concentrations to be greater than filtered concentrations. For selenium, however, the data suggest differences from equality in that range result from analytical imprecision and not a general tendency for unfiltered concentrations to be greater than filtered concentrations. This relation may not be true in lentic, nutrient-rich waters because in such settings algae can bioaccumulate large amounts of selenium and other trace elements. Selenium was the trace element in surface water that most commonly exceeded chronic criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life; more than 40 percent of the selenium concentrations in surface-water samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) aquatic-life chronic criterion (5 micrograms per liter). In 12 of the 26 areas at least 25 percent of the surface water-samples had selenium concentrations that either equaled or exceeded the chronic criterion (5 micrograms per liter). More than 28 percent of boron concentrations and almost 17 percent of the molybdenum concentrations exceeded the aquatic life criteria established by the State of California (550 and 19 micrograms per liter, respectively). In ground water, more than 22 percent of the arsenic concentrations and more than 35 percent of the selenium concentrations exceeded the MCL (10 and 50 micrograms per liter, respectively). Few samples of uranium in surface water exceeded a criterion for the protection of aquatic life (300 micrograms per liter), but 44 percent of the uranium concentrations in ground water exceeded the MCL (30 micrograms per liter). Molybdenum, selenium and uranium were the trace elements most commonly found in bottom-sediment samples that exceeded the upper limit of the 95th percentile expected range in soils of the Western United States. Selenium is the only trace element for which ecological sediment guidelines are used in this report. Selenium concentrations commonly exceeded the ecological sediment guideline of two micrograms per gram. DDT and its degradation products DDD and DDE were the most common pesticide residues found in surface water at concentrations exceeding criteria. However, almost all the samples exceeding the criteria were from a single study area, the Owyhee-Vale Reclamation Project areas in Oregon and Idaho. The organochlorine pesticide chlordane was detected in 30 percent of the bottom-sediment samples, and undegraded DDT was detected in 21 percent. DDT or its degradation products were detected in all 21 study areas where bottom-sediment samples were analyzed for organochlorine pesticides. A principal-components analysis indicated that elevated selenium concentrations in surface water are not associated with elevated boron, molybdenum, or arsenic concentrations. The occurrence of selenium is associated with sulfate and uranium. The association of boron and molybdenum with chloride suggests that evaporative processes control their concentrations. Arsenic is not associated with any other measured trace element and is associated negatively with selenium. This report focuses on selenium because it was the trace element most frequently found at concentrations exceeding criteria for the protection of aquatic life. Selenium concentrations in water are dynamic, and, at a given site, the selenium concentration can change by an order of magnitude during a year and from one year to another. In some areas, selenium contamination may not occur during normal or wet periods. However, during a drought, reduced water deliveries may result in selenium contamination by evaporative concentration. Marine sedimentary rocks, especially those of Late Cretaceous age, are likely to be seleniferous. Irrigation of soils derived from them can contribute large amounts of selenium to drainwater; shallow wells in and near irrigated areas contained hundreds to thousands of micrograms per liter of selenium. The median selenium concentration in surface-water samples from NIWQP sites associated with Upper Cretaceous marine sedimentary rocks is 7 micrograms per liter (range less than 1 to 8,300 micrograms per liter) and from sites not associated with such rocks is 0.4 micrograms per liter (range less than 1 to 390 micrograms per liter). Irrigation-induced selenium contamination has been observed only in arid or semiarid areas. In those NIWQP study areas having local geologic sources of selenium, typically more than 25 percent of the surface-water samples exceed the chronic criterion for selenium if the evaporation rate is 3.0 times greater than the annual precipitation. In terminal water bodies, selenium accumulates and is not flushed out. In both terminal and flow-through lakes and ponds, the median selenium concentrations in surface water for samples collected from June through August are nearly the same (1.0 and 0.8 micrograms per liter, respectively). However, the 75th-percentile selenium concentration for terminal water bodies (24 µg/L) is significantly higher than for flow-through systems (4 µg/L). Selenium concentrations in biota were compared with concentrations that have been demonstrated to have adverse effects on similar species (the effect level) or to have adverse effects on another species if consumed (the dietary effect level). Twenty-five percent of the plant samples had selenium concentrations exceeding the dietary effect level (3 micrograms per gram dry weight) whereas more than 57 percent of the invertebrate samples and 61 percent of the fish samples exceeded the dietary effect level. Of the more than 2,000 bird eggs collected, 44 percent had selenium concentrations exceeding 6 micrograms per gram, a threshold value for reduced hatchability. In 14 areas, selenium concentrations in eggs from some populations of birds exceeded 6 micrograms per gram. Selenium-caused deformities of bird embryos were found in four of the NIWQP study areas; however, most study areas were not systematically surveyed for such deformities. Eggs were sampled from 34 species of birds belonging to 10 orders. Nearly all the eggs collected come from aquatic species of birds, with American coots, mallards, and American avocets being the three species most frequently collected. Of the 34 species, at least one set of eggs from 16 species had a geometric-mean selenium concentration of at least 12.5 micrograms per gram, a high-risk threshold. All three species of grebes yielded at least one set of high risk eggs, as did four of five species of shorebirds and five of eleven species of waterfowl. Egg-set data were examined to determine if some feeding guilds are more at risk to selenium poisoning than others. Analysis of data for waterbird eggs from the study areas where the 75th percentile selenium concentration in surface water exceeded 5 µg/L suggests that herbivorous birds may bioaccumulate less selenium than insect- and fish-eating birds. For birds from these study areas, selenium concentrations for 39 percent of the egg sets from herbivorous birds fell in the normal range (less than 3 µg/g) while only 7 and 0 percent, respectively, of egg sets from insect- and fish-eating birds fall in the normal range. Although herbivorous birds may bioaccumulate less selenium, it does not appear that any waterbird feeding guilds are particularly well buffered from exposure to selenium contamination. Predictive tools were developed to aid managers in identifying specific land areas at risk for irrigation-induced selenium contamination. The tools range from identifying broad geographic regions where selenium contamination is likely, to assessing the probability that selenium concentrations in a specific stream or lake exceed the chronic criterion for selenium. A geographic information system was used to prepare a map that identifies land areas in the Western United States that are susceptible to selenium contamination if irrigated. On the basis of the 75th percentile, selenium concentration in surface water, 12 of the 26 NIWQP study areas were classified as contaminated, two as seleniferous, and 12 as uncontaminated. The map correctly identified both seleniferous areas and 10 of 12 selenium-contaminated areas as susceptible; 10 of 12 uncontaminated areas were correctly identified as not being susceptible. About 160,000 square miles are identified as being susceptible; of that area, about 4,100 square miles have been identified by satellite imagery as actively being irrigated. Principal-components analysis and pattern-recognition techniques indicate that major-ion chemistry of water samples alone can be used to identify selenium- and nonselenium-producing areas in the Western United States. Water samples composed of simple salts of sulfate typically have concentrations of selenium that exceed 3 µg/g, whereas samples composed of simple salts of chloride or carbonate typically have low selenium concentrations. Weathering of soils that contain reduced-sulfur minerals, such as pyrite, mobilizes sulfur and selenium because selenium commonly substitutes for sulfur in these minerals. In areas where the bedrock is composed of Upper Cretaceous marine sedimentary rocks, logistic regression of data from the NIWQP sites indicates that if the dissolved-solids concentration equals 1,000 milligrams per liter, the probability is about 69 percent that the selenium concentration will exceed 5 micrograms per liter, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency chronic criterion. In areas where the bedrock is not composed of such rocks, the probability is only about 10 percent. The avian-egg data within the biotic data base were used to make a quantitative toxicological risk assessment. Of the 23 study areas where avian eggs were sampled, 14 areas yielded at least one egg containing 6 µg/g selenium, the threshold for embryotoxicity. However, only 6 of the study areas yielded eggs containing enough selenium to expect selenium-induced teratogenesis of duck embryos. Predicted probabilities of discovering embryo teratogenesis matched field observations in 13 of the 14 study areas reporting results of embryo assessments. Bird eggs were collected from 161 individual sampling sites and at 79 of those sites selenium concentrations in one or more eggs exceeded 6 µg/g. At the 79 sites where biological effects are expected on the basis of selenium concentrations in the eggs, the median rate was 3.9 percent of the hens losing at least one egg to selenium-induced embryotoxicity. This corresponds to about 1.2 percent selenium-induced egg inviability among otherwise viable eggs. Across all NIWQP study areas, the overall rate of hens projected to lose at least one egg to selenium-induced embryotoxicity is estimated to be 1.9 percent, which corresponds to about 0.3 percent selenium-induced egg inviability among otherwise viable eggs. After accounting for increased mortality of selenium poisoned-hatchlings due to other factors such as weather and predators, it was estimated that that increases of 0.3 and 1.2 percent in inviable eggs would cause approximately a 1.4 and 5.4 percent depression in nesting success. Regional surveys of nesting success among ducks revealed that duck populations commonly exist near their demographic break-even point. The vulnerable demographic condition of North American duck populations during the mid-1960's to mid-1980's was primarily due to noncontaminant factors, such as poor-quality nesting habitat and dry climatic cycles. Under such conditions, rates of 1.4- to 5.4-percent depression in nesting success caused by exposure to selenium from irrigation projects can be crucial for avian populations already close to their demographic break-even point. Even the worst-case levels of contaminant effects, however, could be tolerated by populations of ducks existing just modestly above demographic break-even points. This suggests the biotic risk to ducks could be addressed by reducing irrigation-induced water pollution but more effectively by restoring high-quality (more predator-safe) nesting habitat. An analysis at the nesting-site level was made of the relation between selenium content of water and bird eggs. Eggs from 93 bird populations were collected from nesting sites where the water sample collected during April-July contained less than 5 µg/L selenium. The average selenium concentration in egg sets was embryotoxic in 19 of the 93 populations. Of the populations collected at sites where the selenium in the water was less than 1 microgram per liter, only four of 54 populations contained embryotoxic concentrations. Eggs from 65 populations of birds were collected from nesting sites where selenium concentrations in water samples collected during April-July equaled or exceeded 5 µg/L, and 55 of those 65 populations contained embryotoxic concentrations of selenium in the eggs. An analysis at the study-area level was made of the relation between selenium contamination of water and selenium contamination of the food chain and egg loss due to selenium poisoning. Most food organisms, particularly aquatic invertebrates and fish, contained potentially harmful amounts of selenium in study areas where selenium concentrations in more than 25 percent of the water samples exceed 5 µg/L. The analysis also indicates that some hens are predicted to lose eggs to selenium poisoning in all study areas where selenium concentrations in more than 25 percent of the water samples exceed 5 µg/L. These results suggest that areas where selenium contamination of the food chain and loss of eggs to selenium poisoning is occurring may be identified using the same methods developed to identify areas where selenium contamination of water is likely to occur.

western United States↗

USGS2012

Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

If current climate change trends continue, rising sea levels may inundate low-lying islands across the globe, placing island biodiversity at risk. Recent models predict a rise of approximately one meter (1 m) in global sea level by 2100, with larger increases possible in areas of the Pacific Ocean. Pacific Islands are unique ecosystems home to many endangered endemic plant and animal species. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), which extend 1,930 kilometers (km) beyond the main Hawaiian Islands, are a World Heritage Site and part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. These NWHI support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, providing breeding habitat for 21 species of seabirds, 4 endemic land bird species and essential foraging, breeding, or haul-out habitat for other resident and migratory wildlife. In recent years, concern has grown about the increasing vulnerability of the NWHI and their wildlife populations to changing climatic patterns, particularly the uncertainty associated with potential impacts from global sea-level rise (SLR) and storms. In response to the need by managers to adapt future resource protection strategies to climate change variability and dynamic island ecosystems, we have synthesized and down scaled analyses for this important region. This report describes a 2-year study of a remote northwestern Pacific atoll ecosystem and identifies wildlife and habitat vulnerable to rising sea levels and changing climate conditions. A lack of high-resolution topographic data for low-lying islands of the NWHI had previously precluded an extensive quantitative model of the potential impacts of SLR on wildlife habitat. The first chapter (chapter 1) describes the vegetation and topography of 20 islands of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, the distribution and status of wildlife populations, and the predicted impacts for a range of SLR scenarios. Furthermore, this chapter explores the potential effects of SLR on wildlife breeding habitats for each island. The subsequent chapter (chapter 2) details a study of the Laysan Island ecosystem, describing a quantitative model that incorporates SLR, storm wave, and rising groundwater inundation. Wildlife, storm, and oceanographic data allowed for an assessment of the phenological and spatial vulnerability of Laysan Island's breeding bird species to SLR and storms. Using remote sensing and geospatial techniques, we estimated topography, classified vegetation, modeled SLR, and evaluated a range of climate change scenarios. On the basis of high-resolution airborne data collected during 2010-11 (root-mean-squared error = 0.05-0.18 m), we estimated the maximum elevation of 20 individual islands extending from Kure Atoll to French Frigate Shoals (range: 1.8-39.7 m) and computed the mean elevation (1.7 m, standard deviation 1.1 m) across all low-lying islands. We also analyzed general climate models to describe rainfall and temperature scenarios expected to influence adaptation of some plants and animals for this region. Outcomes for the NWHI predicted an increase in temperature of 1.8-2.6 degrees Celsius (°C) and an annual decrease in precipitation of 24.7-76.3 millimeters (mm) across the NWHI by 2100. Our models of passive SLR (excluding wave-driven effects, erosion, and accretion) showed that approximately 4 percent of the total land area in the NWHI will be lost with scenarios of +1.0 m of SLR and 26 percent will be lost with +2.0 m of SLR. Some atolls are especially vulnerable to SLR. For example, at Pearl and Hermes Atoll our analysis indicated substantial habitat losses with 43 percent of the land area inundated at +1.0 m SLR and 92 percent inundated at +2.0 m SLR. Across the NWHI, seven islands will be completely submerged with +2.0 m SLR. The limited global ranges of some tropical nesting birds make them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the NWHI. Climate change scenarios and potential SLR impacts presented here emphasize the need for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for species with limited breeding distributions and/or ranges restricted primarily to the low-lying NWHI: Cyperus pennatiformis var. bryanii , Black-footed Albatross ( Phoebastria nigripes ), Laysan Albatross ( P. immutabilis ), Bonin Petrel ( Pterodroma hypoleuca ), Gray-backed Tern ( Onychoprion lunatus ), Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ), Laysan Finch ( Telespiza cantans ), and Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ). Furthermore, SLR scenarios that include the effects of wave dynamics and groundwater rise may indicate amplified vulnerability to climate change driven habitat loss on low-lying islands. In chapter 2, we incorporated the combined effects of SLR, dynamic wave-driven inundation, and rising groundwater in a quantitative study specifically for the Laysan Island ecosystem. This is the first hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined impacts of SLR and wave-driven inundation in the NWHI. We developed a high-resolution digital elevation model (mean vertical accuracy of 0.32 m) for the island. Then using recent satellite imagery, geospatial models, and historical oceanographic, storm, and biological data we estimated potential inundation extent, habitat loss, and wildlife population impacts for a range of potential SLR scenarios (0.00, +0.50, +1.00, +1.50, and +2.00 m) that may occur over the next century. Additionally, we estimated the carrying capacity of Laysan Island for five species based on the available population monitoring data and described how potential losses in nesting habitat could influence population dynamics for Black-footed Albatross, Laysan Albatross, Red-footed Booby (Sula sula), Laysan Teal, and Laysan Finch. For some other seabird populations (Masked Booby, S. dactylatra ; Brown Booby, S. leucogaster ; Great Frigatebird, Fregata minor ; and Sooty Tern, Onychoprion fuscata ), we used recent colony distribution data, land cover maps, and nesting behavior to estimate potential losses of nesting habitat from SLR and wave-driven inundation. We observed far greater potential impacts of SLR to wildlife with the dynamic wave-driven modeling approach than with the passive modeling approach. Depending on SLR scenario and coastal orientation, during storms under a +2.00 m SLR scenario, the wave-driven inundation model predicted three times more inundation than the passive model (17.2 percent of total terrestrial area versus 4.6 percent, respectively). Large-wave events generally added 1 m of water height to passive inundation surfaces, therefore our dynamic models (during storm events) forecasted comparable inundation extents earlier than passive models. Although wave-driven water levels were highest in the northwest quadrant of Laysan Island, the greatest extent of inundation occurred in the southeast where coastal dunes less than 3 m above mean sea level provide little protection from wave-driven inundation. When wave-driven inundation was included in the SLR model for Laysan Island greater nesting habitat loss and potential impacts on wildlife population dynamics were predicted. The consequences of habitat loss due to SLR may be worse for species with colonies in the wave-exposed coastal zones (for example, Black-footed Albatross) and for populations already near the island's carrying capacity (for example, Laysan Teal). Species whose peak incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonally high wave heights also will be increasingly vulnerable, especially those species nesting on the ground in areas vulnerable to inundation, such as Gray-backed Tern and Black-footed Albatross. Other species that have space for population growth, or are not restricted to a narrow range of habitat types on Laysan (for instance, Sooty Terns), may be less sensitive to habitat loss from SLR over the next century. Our assessments of inundation risk, habitat loss, and wildlife species vulnerability synthesize current knowledge about individual islands and contribute to a broader understanding of the impacts of inundation from SLR and storm-induced waves. Yet, most NWHI and their bird populations lack monitoring data to evaluate adaptations to and impacts of climate change. Exceptions include some data sets from long-term monitoring of wildlife populations, tides, or weather at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midway Atoll. These data sets are potentially valuable baselines, which could be informative for adaptive learning (integrating management and science) to predict, adapt, and mitigate the effects of climate change on NWHI wildlife in the future. This study provides the first quantitative vulnerability assessment for all of the low-lying NWHI, and results identify biological communities, locales, and resident endangered species of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument expected to be at risk from SLR. This report is also intended as a reference for managers and conservation planners, a tool to identify and potentially reduce uncertainty, and a starting place for developing climate change monitoring priorities and future scientific studies.

Hawai'i↗

USGS1983

Large partition coefficients for trace elements in high-silica rhyolites

The partitioning of 25 trace elements between high-silica rhyolitic glass and unzoned phenocrysts of potassic and sodic sanidine, biotite, augite, ferrohedenbergite, hypersthene, fayalite, titanomagnetite, ilmenite, zircon, and allanite has been determined by INAA on suites of samples from the mildly peralkaline lavas and tuff of the Sierra La Primavera, Mexico, and the metaluminous, compo. sitionally zoned, Bishop Tuff, California. The partition coefficients are much larger than published values for less silicic compositions; the range of values among Primavera samples that differ only slightly in temperature or bulk composition approaches that previously reported from basalts to rhyodacites. Intrinsic temperature dependence of the crystal/liquid partitioning is apparently small. The high values of partition coefficients reflect principally the strongly polymerized nature of the alkali-aluminosilicate liquid, whereas the marked variability of values for partition coefficients is attributed to differences in the concentrations of complexing ligands and/or different degrees of melt polymerization. Great variation in the values of partition coefficients that are potentially applicable to early stages in the partial melting of crustal rocks complicates assessment of 1. (1) source regions for granitic melts and 2. (2) contributions by crustal-melt increments to andesites.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2007

Remote sensing of particle backscattering in Chesapeake Bay: a 6-year SeaWiFS retrospective view

Traditional field techniques to monitor water quality in large estuaries, such as boat-based surveys and autonomous moored sensors, generally provide limited spatial coverage. Satellite imagery potentially can be used to address both of these limitations. Here, we show that satellite-based observations are useful for inferring total-suspended-solids (TSS) concentrations in estuarine areas. A spectra-matching optimization algorithm was used to estimate the particle backscattering coefficient at 400 nm, b bp (400), in Chesapeake Bay from Sea-viewing Wide-Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite imagery. These estimated values of b bp (400) were compared to in situ measurements of TSS for the study period of September 1997–December 2003. Contemporaneous SeaWiFS b bp (400) values and TSS concentrations were positively correlated (N = 340, r 2 = 0.4, P < 0.0005), and the satellite-derived b bp (400) values served as a reasonable first-order approximation for synoptically mapping TSS. Overall, large-scale patterns of SeaWiFS b bp (400) appeared to be consistent with expectations based on field observations and historical reports of TSS. Monthly averages indicated that SeaWiFS b bp (400) was typically largest in winter (>0.049 m −1 , November–February) and smallest in summer (<0.031 m −1 , June–August), regardless of the amount of riverine discharge to the bay. The study period also included Hurricanes Floyd and Isabel, which caused large-scale turbidity events and changes in the water quality of the bay. These results demonstrate that this technique can provide frequent synoptic assessments of suspended solids concentrations in Chesapeake Bay and other coastal regions.

Chesapeake Bay↗

USGS2012

Eco-virological approach for assessing the role of wild birds in the spread of avian influenza H5N1 along the central Asian flyway

A unique pattern of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks has emerged along the Central Asia Flyway, where infection of wild birds has been reported with steady frequency since 2005. We assessed the potential for two hosts of HPAI H5N1, the bar-headed goose ( Anser indicus ) and ruddy shelduck ( Tadorna tadorna ), to act as agents for virus dispersal along this ‘thoroughfare’. We used an eco-virological approach to compare the migration of 141 birds marked with GPS satellite transmitters during 2005–2010 with: 1) the spatio-temporal patterns of poultry and wild bird outbreaks of HPAI H5N1, and 2) the trajectory of the virus in the outbreak region based on phylogeographic mapping. We found that biweekly utilization distributions (UDs) for 19.2% of bar-headed geese and 46.2% of ruddy shelduck were significantly associated with outbreaks. Ruddy shelduck showed highest correlation with poultry outbreaks owing to their wintering distribution in South Asia, where there is considerable opportunity for HPAI H5N1 spillover from poultry. Both species showed correlation with wild bird outbreaks during the spring migration, suggesting they may be involved in the northward movement of the virus. However, phylogeographic mapping of HPAI H5N1 clades 2.2 and 2.3 did not support dissemination of the virus in a northern direction along the migration corridor. In particular, two subclades (2.2.1 and 2.3.2) moved in a strictly southern direction in contrast to our spatio-temporal analysis of bird migration. Our attempt to reconcile the disciplines of wild bird ecology and HPAI H5N1 virology highlights prospects offered by both approaches as well as their limitations.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2001

Assessment of the sand and gravel resources of the Lower Boise River Valley area, Idaho: Part one: Geological framework of the sand and gravel deposits

The USGS has undertaken a first order evaluation of sand & gravel resources in the Lower Boise River Valley in response to rapid urban expansion in the Boise-Nampa-Caldwell corridor in southwest Idaho. The study is intended to provide land-use planners and managers, particularly in the Bureau of Land Management, with a foundation of knowledge that will allow them to anticipate and plan for demand for and development of sand and gravel resources on public lands in response to the urban growth. Attributes under study include: regional geology of both alluvial source areas as well as deposits; fluvial processes that led to deposition of the sand and gravel deposits; spatial distribution of the deposits; quantity and quality of materials in the deposits; and the suitability of the deposits for a range of applications. The study will also examine and attempt to model the association between fluvial processes, deposit characteristics, and physical specifications for various applications of sand and gravel. The results will be presented in a series of sand and gravel assessment reports of which this is the first.

Idaho↗

USGS2003

Geologic database for digital geology of California, Nevada, and Utah— An application of the North American Data Model

The USGS is creating an integrated national database for digital state geologic maps that includes stratigraphic, age, and lithologic information. The majority of the conterminous 48 states have digital geologic base maps available, often at scales of 1:500,000. This product is a prototype, and is intended to demonstrate the types of derivative maps that will be possible with the national integrated database. This database permits the creation of a number of types of maps via simple or sophisticated queries, maps that may be useful in a number of areas, including mineral-resource assessment, environmental assessment, and regional tectonic evolution. This database is distributed with three main parts: a Microsoft Access 2000 database containing geologic map attribute data, an Arc/Info (Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, California) Export format file containing points representing designation of stratigraphic regions for the Geologic Map of Utah, and an ArcView 3.2 (Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, California) project containing scripts and dialogs for performing a series of generalization and mineral resource queries. IMPORTANT NOTE: Spatial data for the respective stage geologic maps is not distributed with this report. The digital state geologic maps for the states involved in this report are separate products, and two of them are produced by individual state agencies, which may be legally and/or financially responsible for this data. However, the spatial datasets for maps discussed in this report are available to the public. Questions regarding the distribution, sale, and use of individual state geologic maps should be sent to the respective state agency. We do provide suggestions for obtaining and formatting the spatial data to make it compatible with data in this report. See section ‘Obtaining and Formatting Spatial Data’ in the PDF version of the report.

California, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS1998

Aquatic habitats in relation to river flow in the Apalachicola River floodplain, Florida

This study is part of a larger effort to identify fresh water needs throughout the region and develop a mechanism for basinwide water management. Quantitative estimates of the amount of aquatic habitat in the floodplain in relation to river flow are presented. Plates show streams, lakes, and floodplain forests connected to the main river channel at selected flows; an analysis of long-term flow record in the Apalachicola River; and a review of the literature regarding fishes in floodplains of the Apalachicola River and other rivers of the Eastern United States. Examples show how this report can be used to assess impacts of flow alterations on aquatic habitats and fishes.

Florida↗

USGS1995

Water-quality characteristics of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay at the Fall Line, Virginia, July 1988 through June 1993

Development in the Chesapeake Bay region has adversely affected the water quality of the Bay. The general degradation in the Bay has resulted in the decline of commercial fishing industries and has reduced the area of aquatic vegetation that provides food and habitat for fish and shellfish. In order to assess the effectiveness of programs aimed at reducing the effects of excess nutrients and suspended solids on Chesapeake Bay, it is necessary to quantify the loads of these constituents into the Bay, and to evaluate the trends in water quality. This report presents the results of a study funded by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality Chesapeake Bay and Coastal Programs and the U.S. Geological Survey, to monitor and estimate loads of selected nutrients and suspended solids discharged to Chesapeake Bay from five major tributaries in Virginia. The water-quality data and load estimates provided in this report also will be used to calibrate computer models of Chesapeake Bay. Water-quality constituents were monitored in the James and Rappahannock Rivers over a 5-year period, and in the Pamunkey, Appomattox, and Mattaponi Rivers over a 4-year period. Water-quality samples were collected from July 1, 1988 through June 30, 1993, for the James and Rappahannock Rivers; from July 1, 1989 through June 30, 1993, for the Pamunkey and Appomattox Rivers; and from September 1,1989 through June 30, 1993, for the Mattaponi River. Water-quality samples were collected on a scheduled basis and during stormflow to cover a range in discharge conditions. Monitore water-quality constituents, for which loads were estimated include total suspended solids (residue, total at 105° Celsius), dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphorus, total organic carbon, and dissolved silica. Organic nitrogen concentrations were calculated from measurements of ammonia and total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and organic nitrogen loads were estimated using these calculations. Other selected water-quality constituents were monitored for which loads were not calculated. Daily mean load estimates of each constituent were computed by use of a seven-parameter log-linear regression model that uses variables of time, discharge, and seasonality. Concentration of total nitrogen ranged from less than 0.14 to 3.41 mg/L (milligrams per liter), with both extreme values occurring at the Rappahannock River. Concentration of total Kjeldahl nitrogen ranged from less than 0.1 mg/L in the James, Rappahannock, and Appomattox Rivers to 3.0 mg/L in the James River. Organic nitrogen was the predominant form of nitrogen at all stations except the Rappahannock River, where nitrite plus-nitrate nitrogen was predominant, and organic nitrogen comprised the majority of the measured total Kjeldahl nitrogen at all stations, ranging from 0.01 mg/L in the Appomattox River to 2.86 mg/L in the James River. Concentration of dissolved ammonia nitrogen ranged from 0.01 mg/L in the Pamunkey River to 0.54 mg/L at the James River. Concentration of nitrite-plusnitrate nitrogen ranged from 0.02 to 1.05 mg/L in the James River. Concentrations of total phosphorus ranged from less than 0.01 mg/L in the Rappahannock and the Mattaponi Rivers to 1.4 mg/L in the James River. Dissolved orthophosphorus ranged from less than 0.01 mg/L in all five rivers to 0.51 mg/L in the James River. Total suspended solids ranged from a concentration of less than 1 mg/L in all five rivers to 844 mg/L in the Rappahannock River. Total organic carbon ranged from 1.1 mg/L in the Appomattox River to 110 mg/L in the Rappahannock River. Dissolved silica ranged from 2.4 mg/L in the James River to 18 mg/L in the Appomattox River. The James and Rappahannock Rivers had high median concentrations and large ranges in concentrations for most constituents, probably because of a greater number of point and nonpoint sources of nutrients and suspended solids, and differences in land use when compared with the other basins. A significantly higher median concentration and greater range of dissolved orthophosphorus generally occurred at the James River than in all other rivers, which primarily is due to the greater number of point sources, such as municipal waste-water treatment plants. The Rappahannock River had significantly higher median concentrations and greater ranges of dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen and total nitrogen than other rivers, probably derived from agricultural sources. Total organic carbon was highest in the Mattaponi and Pamunkey River Basins that contain expanses of wetlands. The Appomattox River had the highest concentration of dissolved silica. The median monthly load of total nitrogen ranged from 16,500 kg (kilogram) in the Mattaponi River to 371,000 kg in the James River. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen ranged from a median monthly load of 12,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 205,500 kg, also in the James River. Organic nitrogen comprised the majority of the total Kjeldahl nitrogen load in all five rivers, ranging from a median monthly load of 11,251 kg in the Mattaponi River to 3,299,500 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of dissolved ammonia nitrogen was 1,130 kg in the Mattaponi River and was as much as 21,050 kg in the James River, whereas nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen ranged from a median monthly load of 4,065 kg in the Mattaponi River to 156,500 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of total phosphorus ranged from 1,670 kg in the Mattaponi River to 61,600 kg in the James River, whereas the median monthly load of dissolved orthophosphorus ranged from 350 kg in the Mattaponi River to 25,900 kg in the James River. Total suspended solids ranged from a median monthly load of 241,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 20,050,000 kg in the James River. Total organic carbon ranged from a median monthly load of 167,000 kg in the Mattaponi River to 2,100,000 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of dissolved silica ranged from 209,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 3,625,000 kg in the James River. In general, annual loads for complete years of data collection were greatest at the James River for all constituents, probably because of the much higher discharge, greater basin size, and higher rates of runoff. Yields, or computations of loads per square mile of basin area, were generally highest at the Rappahannock River for total suspended solids, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite-plusnitrate nitrogen, and total nitrogen. Dissolved orthophosphorus was the only constituent with a yield consistently greater at the James River. Yields of total phosphorus were highest for the James and Rappahannock River basins, whereas yields of dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, and dissolved silica were similar for all five river basins. Quality-assurance analyses that compare the results of the Virginia Division of Consolidated Laboratory Services and the U.S. Geological Survey Laboratory indicate that there are statistically significant differences between the laboratories for several constituents. Differences between laboratories were found to be caused by differences in analytical reporting limits, differences in analytical technique, or a slight bias at both laboratories. Quality-assurance data were used to address analytical technique problems, and to qualify final concentrations and loads.

Virginia↗

USGS2009

Estuarine Ecology of Juvenile Salmon in Western Alaska: a Review

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, large declines in numbers of chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta and Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha returning to the Arctic-YukonKuskokwim (AYK) region (Alaska, USA) illuminated the need for an improved understanding of the variables controlling salmon abundance at all life stages. In addressing questions about salmon abundance, large gaps in our knowledge of basic salmon life history and the critical early marine life stage were revealed. In this paper, results from studies conducted on the estuarine ecology of juvenile salmon in western Alaska are summarized and compared, emphasizing timing and distribution during outmigration, environmental conditions, age and growth, feeding, and energy content of salmon smolts. In western Alaska, water temperature dramatically changes with season, ranging from 0°C after ice melt in late spring/early summer to 19°C in July. Juvenile salmon were found in AYK estuaries from early May until August or September, but to date no information is available on their residence duration or survival probability. Chum salmon were the most abundant juvenile salmon reported, ranging in percent catch from <0.1% to 4.7% and most research effort has focused on this species. Abundances of Chinook salmon, sockeye salmon O. nerka, and pink salmon O. gorbuscha varied among estuaries, while coho salmon O. kisutch juveniles were consistently rare, never amounting to more than 0.8% of the catch. Dietary composition of juvenile salmon was highly variable and a shift was commonly reported from epibenthic and neustonic prey in lower salinity water to pelagic prey in higher salinity water. Gaps in the knowledge of AYK salmon estuarine ecology are still evident. For example, data on outmigration patterns and residence timing and duration, rearing conditions and their effect on diet, growth, and survival are often completely lacking or available only for few selected years and sites. Filling gaps in knowledge concerning salmon use and survival in estuarine and near-shore habitats within the AYK region will aid in assessing the relative roles of all habitats (freshwater to marine) in controlling salmon abundance.

Alaska↗

USGS1989

Water-quality data for the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in the northern coast plain of New Jersey, 1923-86

Ground-water-quality data for the upper and middle aquifers of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in Middlesex and Monmouth Counties are compiled for the period 1923-86. A total of 330 wells were sampled: 192 wells in the upper aquifer and 138 wells in the middle aquifer. Most of the complete water-quality analyses were collected after September 1984, as part of a regional ground-water assessment. Well-construction data for the sampled wells also are presented. Public-supply, domestic-supply, industrial, commercial, irrigation, and observation wells were sampled for the study. Field measurements made at the time of sample collection include water temperature, specific conductance , dissolved oxygen, pH, alkalinity, and bicarbonate concentration. Laboratory determinations include common ions, silica, dissolved solids, trace metals, volatile organic compounds, and pesticides. A quality-assurance program was followed to evaluate and assure the quality of the data. The report also contains a table of lithologic and hydrologic characteristics of the geologic units in the study area, a table of chloride concentrations and field measurements from 1923-86, and statistical summaries of selected water-quality data for the upper and middle aquifers. Many constituents were found in a wide range of concentrations. Water from more than 25 percent of the wells sampled contained lead concentrations above the detection limit of 10 ug/L (micrograms per liter). Included in this number are some wells that had lead concentrations greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) primary drinking-water regulation of 50 ug/L. Cadmium concentrations, although lower than lead concentrations, followed a similar pattern. Water from approximately 25 percent of the wells in the upper aquifer, contain cadmium concentrations equal to or greater than the detection limit of 1 ug/L. Dissolved iron concentrations ranged from 5 ug/L to 480,000 ug/L. Water from more than 50 percent of the wells sampled contained iron concentrations in excess of the USEPA secondary drinking-water recommended limit of 300 ug/L. Chloride concentrations greater than the USEPA secondary drinking-water recommended limit of 250 milligrams per liter were found in samples from wells located in the cities of Perth Amboy and South Amboy; in the boroughs of Keansburg, Sayreville, Keyport, and Union Beach; and in the townships of Old Bridge and Woodbridge. Of 21 samples collected from wells screened in the upper aquifer and analyzed for 30 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), 5 samples contained at least 1 VOC at or above the detection limit. In the middle aquifer, 12 of the 21 samples collected and analyzed for VOCs contained at least 1 VOC greater than the detection limit. Concentrations of pesticides generally were low. Of the 43 samples collected from wells screened in the upper aquifer and analyzed for pesticides, 4 samples contained concentrations of pesticides at or greater than the detection limit. In the middle aquifer, 6 of 38 samples collected and analyzed for 32 pesticides had at least 1 pesticide with a concentration greater than the detection limit.

New Jersey↗

USGS2001

Did you feel it? Community-made earthquake shaking maps

Since the early 1990's, the magnitude and location of an earthquake have been available within minutes on the Internet. Now, as a result of work by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with the cooperation of various regional seismic networks, people who experience an earthquake can go online and share information about its effects to help create a map of shaking intensities and damage. Such 'Community Internet Intensity Maps' (CIIM's) contribute greatly in quickly assessing the scope of an earthquake emergency, even in areas lacking seismic instruments.

California, Washington↗

USGS2011

Potential effects of roadside dry wells on groundwater quality on the Island of Hawai'i — Assessment using numerical groundwater models

Widespread use of dry wells to dispose of roadside runoff has raised concern about the potential effects on the quality of groundwater on the Island of Hawai‘i. This study used semi-generic numerical models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport to assess the potential effect of dry wells on groundwater quality on the Island of Hawai‘i. The semi-generic models are generalized numerical groundwater-flow and solute-transport models that have a range of aquifer properties and regional groundwater gradients that are characteristic for the island. Several semi-generic models were created to study the effect of dry wells in different hydrogeologic conditions, such as different unsaturated-zone thicknesses or different aquifer characteristics. Results indicate that mixing of contaminated water from the surface with contaminant-free water in the saturated aquifer immediately reduces the contaminant concentration. The amount the concentration is reduced depends on the hydraulic properties of the aquifer in a given area, the thickness of the unsaturated zone, and whether the infiltration is focused in a small area of a dry well or spread naturally over a larger area. Model simulations indicate that focusing infiltration of contaminated runoff through a dry well can substantially increase contaminant concentrations in the underlying saturated aquifer relative to infiltration under natural conditions. Simulated concentrations directly beneath a dry well were nearly 8 times higher than the simulated concentrations directly beneath a broad infiltration area representing the natural condition. Where dry wells are present, contaminant concentrations in the underlying saturated aquifer are lower when the unsaturated zone is thicker and higher when the unsaturated zone is thinner. Contaminant concentrations decline quickly as the contaminant plume migrates, with the regional groundwater flow, away from the dry well. The differences among concentrations resulting from the various unsaturated-zone thicknesses also diminish with distance from the dry well. At a horizontal distance of about 700 ft downgradient from the dry well, all simulated maximum concentrations were less than 1 percent of the concentration in the infiltration water; at about 0.5 mi downgradient from the dry well, all simulated concentrations were equal to or less than 0.1 percent. Actual concentrations may be even lower than indicated by the models because of processes such as decay and reaction that were not simulated. Hydrologic and geologic differences from one location to the next also affect contaminant concentrations—simulations using models with properties representative of aquifers in the Hilo area resulted in lower overall concentrations than models with properties representative of aquifers in the Kona area. Results from this study can be used to assess how contaminants entering a dry well may affect receiving waters in a variety of situations on the Island of Hawai‘i. Better assessment would be obtained by using results from models having the most similar conditions (such as climate, hydraulic properties, regional groundwater gradient) to the dry well in question. The results of this study can help determine which dry wells are likely to have the greatest effect on nearby receiving waters and where more specific data and analyses may be needed.

Hawaii↗

USGS2014

Assessment of metal and trace element contamination in water, sediment, plants, macroinvertebrates, and fish in Tavasci Marsh, Tuzigoot National Monument, Arizona

Tavasci Marsh is a large freshwater marsh within the Tuzigoot National Monument in central Arizona. It is the largest freshwater marsh in Arizona that is unconnected to the Colorado River and is designated as an Important Bird Area by the Audubon Society. The marsh has been altered significantly by previous land use and the monument’s managers are evaluating the restoration of the marsh. In light of historical mining activities located near the marsh from the first half of the 20th century, evaluations of water, sediment, plant, and aquatic biota in the marsh were conducted. The evaluations were focused on nine metals and trace elements commonly associated with mining and other anthropogenic activities (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn) together with isotopic analyses to understand the presence, sources and timing of water and sediment contaminants to the marsh and the occurrence in aquatic plants, dragonfly larvae, and fish. Results of water analyses indicate that there were two distinct sources of water contributing to the marsh during the study: one from older high elevation recharge entering the marsh at Shea Spring (as well as a number of unnamed seeps and springs on the northeastern edge of the marsh) and the other from younger low elevation recharge or from Pecks Lake. Water concentrations for arsenic exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary drinking water standard of 10 μg/L at all sampling sites. Surface waters at Tavasci Marsh may contain conditions favorable for methylmercury production. All surficial and core sediment samples exceeded or were within sample concentration variability of at least one threshold sediment quality guideline for As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn. Several sediment sites were also above or were within sample concentration variability of severe or probable effect sediment quality guidelines for As, Cd, and Cu. Three sediment cores collected in the marsh have greater metal and trace element concentrations at depth for Bi, Cd, Cu, Hg, In, Pb, Sb, Sn, Te, and Zn. Radioisotope dating indicates that the elevated metal and trace element concentrations are associated with sediments deposited before 1963. Arsenic concentration was greater in cattail roots compared with surrounding sediment at Tavasci Marsh. Concentrations of As, Ni, and Se from yellow bullhead catfish (Ameiurus natalis) in Tavasci Marsh exceeded the 75th percentile of several other regional studies. Mercury concentration in dragonfly larvae and fish from Tavasci Marsh were similar to or greater than in Tavasci Marsh sediment. Future work includes a biologic risk assessment utilizing the data collected in this study to provide the monument management with additional information for their restoration plan.

Arizona↗

USGS2019

Methods for estimating regional coefficient of skewness for unregulated streams in New England, based on data through water year 2011

The magnitude of annual exceedance probability floods is greatly affected by the coefficient of skewness (skew) of the annual peak flows at a streamgage. Standard flood frequency methods recommend weighting the station skew with a regional skew to better represent regional and stable conditions. This study presents an updated analysis of a regional skew for New England developed using a robust Bayesian weighted and generalized least squares regression model. Nineteen explanatory variables for 153 streamgages were tested in the regression analysis, but none were statistically significant and, as a result, a constant model was selected to define the regional skew for New England. The constant model for the New England region has, in log units, a skew of 0.37, a model error variance of 0.13, and an average variance of prediction at a new site of 0.14. An assessment of the selected regional skew model was conducted using a Monte Carlo analysis. The Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the perceived pattern in the station skews among the 153 streamgages is an artifact of the sample variability and the covariance structure of the errors.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗