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Multichannel seismic-reflection data together with two-dimensional gravity and magnetic models suggest that the crustal structure off North Carolina consists of normal continental crust landward of the Brunswick magnetic anomaly (BMA), rift-stage crust in the 80-km-wide zone between the BMA and the East Coast magnetic anomaly (ECMA), and normal oceanic crust seaward of the ECMA.
A hydrometeorological streamflow-prediction model (HM model) developed for the North Cascades of Washington has been tested in the south-central Sierra Nevada of California. Twenty-four drainages ranging in mean altitude from 770 to 3,160 metres, including several of the major ones such as those of the Kern, Kings, and Merced Rivers, were examined. Eight U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration precipitation stations were evaluated. Of these, three proved to be of significant value for nearly all the drainages used. Results are given for predictions on February 1, March 1, and April 1 of monthly runoff of five major drainages for the April-September season. Also demonstrated is the April 1 prediction of a daily hydrograph for the April-September season for 2 diverse years. The altitude distribution of storage and runoff, both observed and predicted, is determined by using several drainages with different area-altitude profiles. Results of this calculation for two drainages show that, on the average, approximately 50 percent of the April-July runoff originates above 2,800 m. The influence of subsequent precipitation on prediction accuracy is determined by relating prediction error and actual precipitation occurring after the prediction day. Results for three basins show that about 75 percent of the error of a January-September prediction on January 1 is due to precipitation occurring during the prediction season. Comparisons of prediction accuracy are made for five major drainages: the Kern River near Kernville; the Kings River below North Fork, near Trimmer (inflow to Pine Flat Dam); the Kings River at Piedra; the Merced River at Pohono Bridge, near Yosemite; and the Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snelling. The accuracy of the HM model appears to be about 24 percent higher than existing operational methods in predicting the April-July runoff on April 1.
At present, the Arctic Ocean is experiencing changes in ocean surface temperature and sea ice extent that are unprecedented in the era of satellite observations, which extend from the 1980s to the present (see sections 5c,d). To provide context for current changes, scientists turn to paleoclimate records to document and study anthropogenic influence and natural decadal and multidecadal climate variability in the Arctic system. Paleoceanographic records extend limited Arctic instrumental measurements back in time and are central to improving our understanding of climate dynamics and the predictive capability of climate models. By comparing paleoceanographic records with modern observations, scientists can place the rates and magnitudes of modern Arctic change in the context of those inferred from the geological record. Over geological time, paleoceanographic reconstructions using, for instance, marine sediment cores indicate that the Arctic has experienced huge sea ice fluctuations. These fluctuations range from nearly completely ice-free to totally ice-covered conditions. The appearance of ice-rafted debris and sea ice-dependent diatoms in Arctic marine sediments indicate that the first Arctic sea ice formed approxi-mately 47 million years ago (St. John 2008; Stickley et al. 2009; Fig. SB5.1), coincident with an interval of declining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, global climate cooling, and expansion of Earths cryosphere during the middle Eocene. The development of year-round (i.e., perennial) sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean, similar to conditions that exist today, is evident in sediment records as early as 1418 million years ago (Darby 2008). These records suggest that transitions in sea ice cover occur over many millennia and often vary in concert with the waxing and waning of circum-Arctic land ice sheets, ice shelves, and long-term fluctuations in ocean and atmospheric temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Stein et al. 2012; Jakobsson et al. 2014). Over shorter time scales, shallow sediment records from Arctic Ocean continental shelves allow more detailed, higher-resolution (hundreds of years resolution) reconstructions of sea ice history extending through the Holocene (11 700 years ago to present), the most recent interglacial period. A notable feature of these records is an early Holocene sea ice minimum, corresponding to a thermal maximum (warm) period from 11 000 to 5000 years ago, when the Arctic may have been warmer and had less summertime sea ice than today (Kaufman et al. 2004). However, it is not clear that the Arctic was ice-free at any point during the Holocene (Polyak et al. 2010). High-resolution paleosea ice records from the western Arctic in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas indicate that sea ice concentrations increased through the Holocene in concert with decreasing summer solar insolation (sunlight). Sea ice extent in this region also varied in response to the volume of Pacific water delivered via the Bering Strait into the Arctic Basin (Stein et al. 2017; Polyak et al. 2016). Records from the Fram Strait (Mller et al. 2012), Laptev Sea (Hrner et al. 2016), and Canadian Arctic Archipelago (Vare et al. 2009) also indicate a similar long-term expansion of sea ice and suggest sea ice extent in these regions is modulated by the varying influx of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Basin (e.g., Werner et al. 2013). Taken together, available records support a circum-Arctic sea ice expansion during the late Holocene. A notably high-resolution summer sea ice history (<5-year resolution) has been established for the last 1450 years using a network of terrestrial records (tree ring , lake sediment, and ice core records) located around the margins of the Arctic Ocean (Kinnard et al. 2011). Results summarized in Fig. SB5.2 indicate a pronounced decline in summer sea ice extent beginning in the 20th century, with exceptionally low ice extent recorded since the mid-1990s, consistent with the satellite record (see section 5d). While several episodes of reduced and expanded sea ice extent occur in association with climate anomalies such as the Medieval Climate Warm Period (AD 8001300) and the Little Ice Age (AD 14501850), the magnitude and pace of the modern decline in sea ice is outside of the range of natural variability and unprecedented in the 1450-year reconstruction (Kinnard et al. 2011). A radiocarbon-dated driftwood record of the Ellesmere ice shelf in the Canadian High Arctic, the oldest landfast ice in the Northern Hemisphere, also demonstrates a substantial reduction in ice extents over the 20th century (England et al. 2017). A supporting sediment record indicates that inflowing Atlantic water in Fram Strait has warmed by 2C since 1900, driving break up and melt of sea ice (Spielhagen et al. 2011). Complementary mooring and satellite observations show the Atlantification of the eastern Arctic due to enhanced inflow of warm saline water through Fram Strait (Nilsen et al. 2016) and nutrient-rich Pacific water via the Bering has increased by more than 50% (Woodgate et al. 2012), further driving sea ice melt and warming seas. Similar high-resolution proxy records from Arctic regions also indicate that the modern rate of increasing annual surface air temperatures has not been observed over at least the last 2000 years (McKay and Kaufman 2014). Scientists conclude that broad-scale sea ice variations recorded in the paleo record were dominantly driven by changes in basin-scale changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, fluctuations in air temperature, strength of incoming solar radiation, and changes in the inflow of warm water via Pacific and Atlantic inflows (Polyak et al. 2010). There is general consensus that ice-free Arctic summers are likely before the end of the 21st century (e.g., Stroeve et al. 2007; Massonnet et al. 2012), while some climate model projections suggest ice-free Arctic summers as early as 2030 (Wang and Overland 2009). Paleoclimate studies and observational time series attribute the decline in sea ice extent and thickness over the last decade to both enhanced greenhouse warming and natural climate variability. While understanding the interplay of these factors is critical for future projections of Arctic sea ice and ecosystems, most observational time series records cover only a few decades. This highlights the need for additional paleoceanographic reconstructions across multiple spatial and temporal domains to better understand the drivers and implications of present and future Arctic Ocean change.
Deep-sea coral and sponge (DSCS) communities serve as essential fish habitats (EFH) by providing shelter and nursery habitat, increasing diversity, and increasing prey availability (Freese and Wing, 2003; Bright, 2007; Baillon et al., 2012; Henderson et al., 2020). Threats to these long-lived, fragile organisms from bottom contact fishing gear, potential offshore renewable energy development, and ocean warming and acidification have increased the need for DSCS research along the U.S. West Coast (Gomez et al., 2018; Salgado et al., 2018; Yoklavich, et al., 2018; Gugliotti et al., 2019). The focus of these studies has varied from species distribution and abundance (Yoklavich and Love, 2005; Tissot et al., 2006) to developing and validating predictive distribution models (Huff et al., 2013; Rooper et al., 2017; Kreidler, 2020) to finding medicinal uses for corals and sponges (Essack et al., 2011; Shrestha et al., 2018). Due to the vast area of unexplored seafloor within the U.S. exclusive economic zone (EEZ; 200 nautical miles off the coast) and the technological requirements and expanse of deep-sea research, there is still much to learn about the distributions and biology of DSCS. This information is critical to resource managers for effective conservation and management of DSCS habitats. Protections are provided by the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) designation of groundfish EFH conservation areas (EFHCA) and the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA). Areas designated as EFHCA are closed to bottom trawl fishing to protect and preserve seafloor habitats. Recently the PFMC adopted Amendment 28 to the Groundfish Fishery Management Plan (GFMP; Pacific Fishery Management Council, 2019) which modified EFHCAs by closing new areas identified as vulnerable and reopening areas deemed not vulnerable. The NMSA prohibits bottom disturbance from certain activities within areas designated as national marine sanctuaries, such as oil and gas exploration or extraction, cable laying, and other forms of seabed alteration or construction that disturb benthic communities. NOAA’s Deep-Sea Coral and Research Technology Program (DSCRTP) began a 4-yr funding initiative for the U.S. West Coast in 2017. The goals of the West Coast Deep-Sea Coral Initiative (WCDSCI) were to: 1) gather baseline information on areas subject to fishing regulation changes prior to the implementation of Amendment 28; 2) improve our understanding of known DSCS bycatch “hot spots”; and 3) explore and assess DSCS resources within NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries with emphasis on areas of sanctuary resource protection and management concerns. During the first year of the program, a research cruise was developed to survey the West Coast from Oregon to California studying the DSCS ecosystems in priority areas. The 31-day expedition (9 Oct – 8 Nov, 2018) was launched from the NOAA Ship Bell M. Shimada, beginning in Newport, OR and ending in San Diego, CA. The science team assembled for this cruise were members of the EXpanding Pacific Research and Exploration of Submerged Systems (EXPRESS) campaign, which brings together researchers from federal and nonfederal institutions to collaborate on scientific expeditions targeting the deepwater areas off California, Oregon, and Washington. EXPRESS supports researchers leveraging funding, resources, personnel, and expertise to accomplish more science than would have been possible by a single entity alone. The 2018 coastwide expedition included research partners from National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC) and Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC), National Ocean Service (Channel Islands, Cordell Bank, Greater Farallones, and Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuaries), Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI). Research objectives for the cruise were to: 1) Collect DSCS baseline information at 10 of the EFHCA sites undergoing protection modifications by the Pacific Fishery Management Council. 2) Collect DSCS and fish data at previously unexplored sites within West Coast National Marine Sanctuaries. 3) Revisit a subset of previously surveyed sites to document if changes in DCSC have occurred over time. 4) Collect information to validate BOEM supported cross-shelf habitat suitability models for DSCS. 5) Collect samples to help in identifying (and understanding) West Coast DSCS and expand use of new technologies (ROV, AUV, and environmental DNA [eDNA]). 6) Collect water samples for coastwide eDNA, nutrient, and carbon chemistry studies.
The eastern Bering Sea Basin, composed of the Aleutian and Bowers Basins, is flanked to the north by Mesozoic foldbelts that probably represent zones of plate subduction in Mesozoic time. Present plate subduction occurs 400 to 1,000 km farther south, at the Aleutian Trench. North-south magnetic lineations that formed at an oceanic spreading ridge, probably in Mesozoic time (117 to 132 m.y. ago), have been identified in the Aleutian Basin. The orientation and age of those anomalies can be explained by reconstructing Kula-Farallon Pacific plate motions during late Mesozoic–early Tertiary time. In Mesozoic time, subduction of the Kula plate occurred north of the Aleutian Trench near the present location of the Bering Sea continental margin. At about 70 m.y. B.P. (Late Cretaceous), the zone of subduction shifted south to the present location of the Aleutian Trench, thereby trapping a fragment of oceanic plate imprinted with north-south magnetic lineations within the eastern Bering Sea Basin. A stable basin framework has prevailed behind the Aleutian arc since early Tertiary time.
To address concerns about the effects of water-resource management practices and rising sea level on saltwater intrusion, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Broward County Environmental Planning and Community Resilience Division, initiated a study to examine causes of saltwater intrusion and predict the effects of future alterations to the hydrologic system on salinity distribution in eastern Broward County, Florida. A three-dimensional, variable-density solute-transport model was calibrated to conditions from 1970 to 2012, the period for which data are most complete and reliable, and was used to simulate historical conditions from 1950 to 2012. These types of models are typically difficult to calibrate by matching to observed groundwater salinities because of spatial variability in aquifer properties that are unknown, and natural and anthropogenic processes that are complex and unknown; therefore, the primary goal was to reproduce major trends and locally generalized distributions of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer. The methods used in this study are relatively new, and results will provide transferable techniques for protecting groundwater resources and maximizing groundwater availability in coastal areas. The model was used to (1) evaluate the sensitivity of the salinity distribution in groundwater to sea-level rise and groundwater pumping, and (2) simulate the potential effects of increases in pumping, variable rates of sea-level rise, movement of a salinity control structure, and use of drainage recharge wells on the future distribution of salinity in the aquifer. Results from the simulation of historical conditions indicate that the model generally represents the observed greater westward extent of elevated salinity in the central part of the intruded area relative to the northern and southernmost parts of the intruded area. Results of sensitivity testing indicate that the extent of elevated salinity is most sensitive to pumping in areas where the source of saltwater is largely offshore, from the Atlantic Ocean, and is most sensitive to sea-level rise in areas where the source of salinity is downward leakage of brackish water from canals. Simulations of future scenarios indicate that increases in pumping near the existing interface may cause the interface to advance and decreases in pumping may cause it to retreat. Climatic effects, such as periods of prolonged drought or high precipitation, may augment or counteract long-term effects of changes in pumping on aquifer salinity at well fields. With increasing rates of sea-level rise, the freshwater-saltwater interface advances progressively inland, and flow-averaged salinities at well fields near the existing interface increase commensurately. Hypothetical southeastward (downstream) re-positioning of the existing G–54 salinity-control structure may prevent the interface from moving northwestward along and near the North New River canal, but beneficial effects are localized. Implementation of freshwater recharge wells in the city of Hallandale Beach may also have only a localized freshening effect in the aquifer and little appreciable effect on the freshwater-saltwater interface or on concentrations of salinity at well fields. Model accuracy and use are limited by uncertainty in the physical properties and boundary conditions of the system, uncertainty in historical and future conditions, and generalizations made in the mathematical relationships used to describe the physical processes of groundwater flow and transport. Because of these limitations, model results should be considered in relative rather than absolute terms. Nonetheless, model results do provide useful information on the relative scale of response of the system to changes in pumping distribution, sea-level rise, and mitigation activities.
The oilspill trajectory movement algorithm consists of a vector sum of the surface drift component due to wind and the surface current component. In the U.S. Geological Survey oilspill trajectory analysis model, the surface drift component is assumed to be 3.5% of the wind speed and is rotated 20 degrees clockwise to account for Coriolis effects in the Northern Hemisphere. Field and laboratory data suggest, however, that the deflection angle of the surface drift current can be highly variable. An empirical formula, based on field observations and theoretical arguments relating wind speed to deflection angle, was used to calculate a new deflection angle at each time step in the model. Comparisons of oilspill contact probabilities to coastal areas calculated for constant and variable deflection angles showed that the model is insensitive to this changing angle at low wind speeds. At high wind speeds, some statistically significant differences in contact probabilities did appear.
We investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of suspended sediment and the associated hydrodynamics over mildly sloped long wave ripples on the inner shelf. These bedforms had wavelengths of approximately 1 m and heights of approximately 5 cm, in a mean water depth of 4 m. The vertical and temporal structures of the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) are consistent with the entrainment of sediment on the offshore flank of the ripple, and rapid vertical mixing at the time of flow reversal, followed by advection onshore by the onshore fluid motion. This work confirms that the mechanism for sediment suspension above low-amplitude, long wave ripples is similar to the vortex formation process expected over steeper vortex ripples. Numerical simulations of the flow using the Dune2d model indicate that a separated rotational flow structure is generated at the flank of the ripple on the seaward side of the ripple crest, near the time of flow reversal. The simulations indicate that only one vortex is formed during each wave period, in agreement with the field observations. This asymmetry is due mainly to the presence of an offshore mean near-bed current of approximately 6 to 8 cm/s. The SSC is calculated by the model and compared to the field observations. A hydraulic bed roughness of 10 to 15 median grain diameters ( d 50 ) was used in order to match the model prediction to the observed SSC approximately 1 cm above the seabed (cab). However, the modeled SSC and turbulent kinetic energy were significantly lower than the field observations at elevations exceeding approximately 2 cab.
A monthlong time series of wave, current, salinity, and suspended-sediment measurements was made at five sites on a transect across the Mouth of Columbia River (MCR). These data were used to calibrate and evaluate the performance of a coupled hydrodynamic and wave model for the MCR based on the Delft3D modeling system. The MCR is a dynamic estuary inlet in which tidal currents, river discharge, and wave-driven currents are all important. Model tuning consisted primarily of spatial adjustments to bottom drag coefficients. In combination with (near-) default parameter settings, the MCR model application is able to simulate the dominant features in the tidal flow, salinity and wavefields observed in field measurements. The wave-orbital averaged method for representing the current velocity profile in the wave model is considered the most realistic for the MCR. The hydrodynamic model is particularly effective in reproducing the observed vertical residual and temporal variations in current structure. Density gradients introduce the observed and modeled reversal of the mean flow at the bed and augment mean and peak flow in the upper half of the water column. This implies that sediment transport during calmer summer conditions is controlled by density stratification and is likely net landward due to the reversal of flow near the bed. The correspondence between observed and modeled hydrodynamics makes this application a tool to investigate hydrodynamics and associated sediment transport.
The mechanical, physical, and frictional properties of incoming materials play an important role in subduction zone structure and slip behavior because these properties influence the strength of the accretionary wedge and megathrust plate boundary faults. Incoming sediment sections often show an increase in compressional wave speed (Vp) and a decrease in porosity with depth due to consolidation. These relations allow seismic-velocity models to be used to elucidate properties and conditions at depth. However, variations in these properties are controlled by lithology and composition as well as cementation and diagenesis. We present an analysis of shipboard measurements of Vp and porosity on incoming sediment cores from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) expeditions at the Hikurangi Margin, Nankai Trough, Aleutian Trench, Middle America Trench, and Sunda Trench. Porosity for these samples ranges from 5% to 85% and Vp ranges from 1.5 to 6 km/s. Vp-porosity relations developed by Erikson & Jarrad (1998), https://doi.org/10.1029/98JB02128 and Hoffman & Tobin (2004) https://10.2973/odp.proc.sr.190196.355.2004, with a critical porosity of ∼30%, can represent carbonate-poor (<50 wt% CaCO3), mainly hemipelagic, incoming sediment regardless of the margin. But these relations tend to underestimate porosity in incoming sediments with carbonate content greater than 50 wt%, which appear to have a critical porosity of between 45% and 50%. This discrepancy will lead to inaccuracy in estimates of fluid budget and overpressure in subduction zones. The velocity-porosity relation in carbonate sediments is non-unique due to the complexity that results from the greater susceptibility of carbonate rocks to diagenetic processes.
Methane hydrates are globally widespread in permafrost regions and beneath the sea in sediment of outer continental margins. The amount of methane sequestered in gas hydrates is probably enormous, but estimates of the amounts are speculative and range over three orders of magnitude (about 10 3 to 10 6 GT (gigatons = 10 15 g)). A question of current interest concerns the possible consequences of an addition of methane to the atmosphere from destabilized methane hydrates due to global warming. Models of greenhouse warming predict that climatic change will be greatest in the Arctic. Thus, if methane from destabilized gas hydrates contributes to greenhouse warming, this destabilization will most likely take place first in the Arctic, particularly in the shallow nearshore regions of the Arctic Ocean where offshore permafrost is found. The process of permafrost warming and release of methane from gas hydrates may already be in progress, but the amount being released now and to be released in the 21st century is probably small. The positive feedback of this atmospheric methane on global climates will likely be minimal.
It has long been hypothesized that flux of fresh meltwater from glacial Lake Minong in North America's Superior Basin to the North Atlantic Ocean triggered rapid climatic shifts during the early Holocene. The spatial context of recent support for this idea demands a reevaluation of the exit point of meltwater from the Superior Basin. We used ground penetrating radar (GPR), foundation borings from six highway bridges, a GIS model of surface topography, geologic maps, U.S. Department of Agriculture–Natural Resources Conservation Service soils maps, and well logs to investigate the possible linkage of Lake Minong with Lake Chippewa in the Lake Michigan Basin across eastern Upper Michigan. GPR suggests that a connecting channel lies buried beneath the present interlake divide at Danaher. A single optical age hints that the channel aggraded to 225 m as elevated receipt of Lake Agassiz meltwater in the Superior Basin began to wane <10.6 ka. The large supply of sediment required to accommodate aggradation was immediately available at the channel's edge in the littoral shelves of abandoned Lake Algonquin and in distal parts of post-Algonquin fans. As discharge decreased further, the aggraded channel floor was quickly breached and interbasin flow to Lake Chippewa was restored. Basal radiocarbon ages on wood from small lakes along the discharge path and a GIS model of Minong's shoreline are consistent with another transgression of Minong after ca. 9.5 ka. At the peak of the latter transgression, the southeastern rim of the Superior Basin (Nadoway Drift Barrier) failed, ending Lake Minong. Upon Minong's final drop, aggradational sediments were deposited at Danaher, infilling the prior breach.
The planning, permitting, and design of stormwater-management projects require estimates of the depths of extreme precipitation for current and future events with specified durations and return periods. In this project, precipitation data from six downscaled climate datasets were used to determine changes in precipitation depth-duration-frequency curves from the period 1966–2005 to the periods 2020–59 and 2050–89. The downscaled climate datasets are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 and include (1) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), (2) Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA), (3) Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), (4) Jupiter Intelligence Weather Research and Forecasting model (JupiterWRF), (5) LOCA version 2 (LOCA2), and (6) National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). Change factors—multiplicative changes in expected extreme precipitation magnitude from a historical to future period—were computed for grid cells containing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 stations in Florida. Change factors for specific durations and return periods were developed to scale the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 historical depth-duration-frequency values to the periods 2020–59 and 2050–89 on the basis of changes in extreme precipitation derived from six downscaled climate datasets. Overall, a large variation in change factors across downscaled climate datasets was found, with change factors generally being greater than 1 and increasing with return period. In general, median change factors were found to range within 1.01–1.58 for 2020–59 and 1.01–1.63 for 2050–89, depending on the downscaled climate dataset, region, duration, and return period, indicating a projected overall increase in future extreme-precipitation events. When data from all datasets are considered together, median change factors range within 1.04–1.18 for the period 2020–59 and within 1.04–1.23 for the period 2050–89, depending on the region, duration, and return period. Spatial patterns in median change factors were found to vary by dataset.
Gag is a reef fish that was declared overfished in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) in 2009. Although Gag are no longer listed as overfished, fisheries managers are concerned that stocks may not be recovering. Our objective was to identify habitat characteristics important to Gag, and their effect on the probability of Gag occurrence. We obtained data from three separate fisheries-independent video surveys that sampled in the eastern GOM from 2010-2017: the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) Panama City, FL Office, the NOAA Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute. We ran a separate mixed effects logistic regression for each survey, and used Akaike’s Information Criteria to determine the best fitting models. Some variables - percent rock coverage, vertical relief, latitude, and depth - were present in all confidence models. Depth did not have the same relationship with Gag across all surveys, suggesting that shallower habitats (<50 m) might be more suitable for juveniles, whereas deeper habitats (>50 m) might be more suitable for adults. Managers may be able to help Gag and encourage their recovery by using these data to establish or expand protected areas throughout shallower waters.
The Canada Basin and the southern Alpha-Mendeleev ridge complex underlie a significant proportion of the Arctic Ocean, but the geology of this undrilled and mostly ice-covered frontier is poorly known. New information is encoded in seismic wide-angle reflections and refractions recorded with expendable sonobuoys between 2007 and 2011. Velocity–depth samples within the sedimentary succession are extracted from published analyses for 142 of these records obtained at irregularly spaced stations across an area of 1.9E + 06 km 2 . The samples are modelled at regional, subregional and station-specific scales using an exponential function of inverse velocity versus depth with regionally representative parameters determined through numerical regression. With this approach, smooth, non-oscillatory velocity–depth profiles can be generated for any desired location in the study area, even where the measurement density is low. Practical application is demonstrated with a map of sedimentary thickness, derived from seismic reflection horizons interpreted in the time domain and depth converted using the velocity–depth profiles for each seismic trace. A thickness of 12–13 km is present beneath both the upper Mackenzie fan and the middle slope off of Alaska, but the sedimentary prism thins more gradually outboard of the latter region. Mapping of the observed-to-predicted velocities reveals coherent geospatial trends associated with five subregions: the Mackenzie fan; the continental slopes beyond the Mackenzie fan; the abyssal plain; the southwestern Canada Basin; and, the Alpha-Mendeleev magnetic domain. Comparison of the subregional velocity–depth models with published borehole data, and interpretation of the station-specific best-fitting model parameters, suggests that sandstone is not a predominant lithology in any of the five subregions. However, the bulk sand-to-shale ratio likely increases towards the Mackenzie fan, and the model for this subregion compares favourably with borehole data for Miocene turbidites in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The station-specific results also indicate that Quaternary sediments coarsen towards the Beaufort-Mackenzie and Banks Island margins in a manner that is consistent with the variable history of Laurentide Ice Sheet advance documented for these margins. Lithological factors do not fully account for the elevated velocity–depth trends that are associated with the southwestern Canada Basin and the Alpha-Mendeleev magnetic domain. Accelerated porosity reduction due to elevated palaeo-heat flow is inferred for these regions, which may be related to the underlying crustal types or possibly volcanic intrusion of the sedimentary succession. Beyond exploring the variation of an important physical property in the Arctic Ocean basin, this study provides comparative reference for global studies of seismic velocity, burial history, sedimentary compaction, seismic inversion and overpressure prediction, particularly in mudrock-dominated successions.
The socioeconomic difficulties of southwest Asia, defined as the area bound by the domain 25°N–40°N and 40°E–70°E, are exacerbated by extreme precipitation deficits during the November–April rainy season. The precipitation deficits during many southwest Asia droughts have been examined in terms of the forcing by climate variability originating over the Pacific Ocean as a result of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and the long-term warming of Pacific (LT) sea surface temperatures (SST). Here we examine how the most extreme November–April southwest Asia droughts relate to global SSTs and the associated large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and analyze the specific atmospheric forcing mechanisms responsible for changes in regional southwest Asian precipitation. The driest November–April seasons during 1948–2012 over southwest Asia are forced by subsidence and reductions of moisture fluxes as a result of the interaction of the mean flow with anomalous zonally symmetric high pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The anomalous zonally symmetric high pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere occurs simultaneously with cool central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies associated with La Niña and the negative phase of PDV and a warm west Pacific Ocean caused in part by the long-term warming of the west Pacific Ocean.
The M9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (SAE) occurred three months prior to the M8.7 Nias earthquake (NE). We propose that the NE was mechanically triggered by the SAE, and that poroelastic effects were a major component of this triggering. This study uses 3D finite element models (FEMs) of the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone (SASZ) to predict the deformation, stress, and pore pressure fields of the SAE. The coseismic slip distribution for the SAE is calibrated to near-field GPS data using FEM-generated Green's Functions and linear inverse methods. The calibrated FEM is then used to predict the postseismic poroelastic contribution to stress-triggering along the rupture surface of the NE, which is adjacent to the southern margin of the SAE. The coseismic deformation of the SAE, combined with the rheologic configuration of the SASZ produces two transient fluid flow regimes having separate time constants. SAE coseismic pore pressures in the relatively shallow forearc and volcanic arc regions (within a few km depth) dissipate within one month after the SAE. However, pore pressures in the oceanic crust of the down-going slab persist several months after the SAE. Predictions suggest that the SAE initially induced MPa-scale negative pore pressure near the hypocenter of the NE. This pore pressure slowly recovered (increased) during the three-month interval separating the SAE and NE due to lateral migration of pore fluids, driven by coseismic pressure gradients, within the subducting oceanic crust. Because pore pressure is a fundamental component of Coulomb stress, the MPa-scale increase in pore pressure significantly decreased stability of the NE fault during the three-month interval after the SAE and prior to rupture of the NE. A complete analysis of stress-triggering due to the SAE must include a poroelastic component. Failure to include poroelastic mechanics will lead to an incomplete model that cannot account for the time interval between the SAE and NE. Our transient poroelastic model explains both the spatial and temporal characteristics of triggering of the NE by the SAE.
In tectonically active regions, post-earthquake motions are generally shaped by a combination of continued fault slippage (afterslip) on a timescale of days to months and viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle on a timescale of days to years. Transient crustal motions have been observed following numerous magnitude >~7 earthquakes in various tectonic settings: continental rift zones (Basin and Range), continental plate boundary zones (San Andreas fault corridor; Alaska; Turkey), subduction zones (Japan, Chile, Sumatra), ongoing continental collision zones (Arabia; Tibet), and mid-ocean rifting zones (Iceland). When afterslip can be discriminated from viscoelastic relaxation and when temporal coverage of the postseismic measurements is broad (i.e., geodetic surveys of at least several years duration are available), a wide spectrum of relaxation timescales are usually identified. Current temporal resolution and modeling approaches (e.g., Burgers body analog) allow identification of transient (Kelvin) and steady-state (Maxwell) viscosities that are operable in the short-term and long-term, respectively. I compile results from 40 studies of post-earthquake motions, augmented by ten studies of contemporary surface loading or unloading, that illuminate current estimates of transient and steady-state viscosity of the lower crust and/or uppermost mantle. Lower crust viscosity estimates range from ~ 10 18 to 10 21 Pa s, with most estimates near the upper end except in areas of overthickened crust. Mantle lithosphere and asthenosphere viscosity estimates are particularly abundant and yield a picture of transient viscosity ranging from ~10 16 to 10 19 Pa s and steady-state viscosity ranging from ~10 18 to 10 21 Pa s. To first order, both transient and steady-state viscosities are well correlated with regional heat flow, and steady-state viscosities are comparable with temperature and strain-rate dependent rock viscosities from laboratory-based flow laws.