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To properly respond to natural and human-induced stresses to wetlands, resource managers must consider their functions and values. Remote sensing is an important tool for monitoring wetland responses to changes in the hydrologic regime and water quality caused by global climate change and sea-level rise.
The coastline of the United States features some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations in the world and is the site of intense residential, commercial, and industrial development. The coastal zone also has extensive and pristine natural areas, with diverse ecosystems providing essential habitat and resources that support wildlife, fish, and human use. Coastal erosion is a widespread process along most open-ocean shores of the United States that affects both developed and natural coastlines. As the coast changes, there are a wide range of ways that change can affect coastal communities, habitats, and the physical characteristics of the coast?including beach erosion, shoreline retreat, land loss, and damage to infrastructure. Global climate change will likely increase the rate of coastal change. A recent study of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, for example, found that it is virtually certain that sandy beaches will erode faster in the future as sea level rises because of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for conducting research on coastal change hazards, understanding the processes that cause coastal change, and developing models to predict future change. To understand and adapt to shoreline change, accurate information regarding the past and present configurations of the shoreline is essential. A comprehensive, nationally consistent analysis of shoreline movement is needed. To meet this national need, the USGS is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean coasts of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, as well as the coasts of the Great Lakes.
Study region: Headwaters of the upper Colorado River basin (UCOL), USA Study focus: Surface-water and groundwater numerical models incorporating water-use information were used to investigate changes in climate, water use, and simulated hydrologic responses of snow processes, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and streamflow during recent wet (1982–1999) and drought (2000–2022) periods in the headwater subregions of the upper Colorado River basin. New hydrologic insights for the region: Decreases in average streamflow between wet and drought periods ranged from 20 % in the Colorado River headwaters subregion to 23 % in the Gunnison River headwaters subregion. Like streamflow, average surface runoff was statistically less during the drought than the wet period, with decreases from 24–31 % in the headwaters. On a volume basis, runoff decreases were greater than streamflow decreases in both the Colorado River and Gunnison River headwaters. Although the amount of water-year groundwater discharge to streams remained nearly the same between the wet and drought periods, groundwater as a percentage of streamflow increased between the wet and drought periods, highlighting the importance of groundwater in sustaining streamflow during drought conditions. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that snowmelt-only models were better than the best precipitation and temperature models at explaining streamflow variability from all headwater subregions for both the wet and drought periods.
Urban development and associated land-cover and land-use change alters the environment. The continued increase of developed land changes the Earth’s ecosystems and affects the resources provided to society. During the last 40 years, urban population in the United States has increased by more than 6.3 percent, and more than 80 percent of the U.S. population resides in urban areas. One of the changes associated with urbanization is the change of landscape features to structures such as buildings, roads, and other infrastructure that absorb and re-emit the heat of the sun more than natural landscapes such as forests and water bodies. This land-cover transition can result in an urban surface temperature that is higher than in a non-urban area, which is defined as a surface urban heat island (SUHI). A SUHI has a profound effect on the lives of urban residents and can exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The change of urban landscapes and climate conditions can affect the SUHI intensity. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a dataset of SUHI intensity and change from 1985 to 2020 over 50 cities in the United States using Landsat surface temperature (ST) and land - cover data. The data reveal SUHI spatial distributions and temporal trends in these cities. The 50-city mean SUHI intensity reaches 2.88 degrees Celsius (°C) (5.19 degrees Fahrenheit [°F]) and an average trend of 0.32 °C per decade (0.58 °F per decade). The data also provide spatial distributions of hotspots where annual mean ST is higher than in the surrounding areas that have the same urban land-cover type and high ST that repeated more than 50 percent of the time during 1985–2020 for 50 cities.
The ability to accurately map erosion, flooding, and habitat loss in coastal environments is crucial for formulating national strategies aimed at preventing and mitigating the impacts of natural disasters. A fundamental component of this process is the implementation of coastal morphodynamics monitoring through Structure-from-Motion (SfM) techniques, utilizing high-resolution 2D/3D data obtained from aerial photogrammetry. To assess morphodynamic changes over a three-year period (2022 – 2024), several SfM-based photogrammetric studies were conducted, each year, in the Romanian sector of the Danube-Black Sea coastal zone, specifically at the mouth of one of the Danube River distributaries (Sf Gheorghe branch) into the Black Sea, and along the left bank, near Sf Gheorghe locality, located within the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR). The essential equipment for aerial photogrammetry comprises Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In this study, the UAV used was a DJI Mavic 3T (Enterprise/Thermal) drone, complemented by two Trimble R12i and R4 GNSS systems, as well as approximately 10 Ground Control Points (GCPs). Data acquisition and processing were carried out using specialized photogrammetric software (Agisoft Metashape) along with various GIS tools (e.g., Blue Marble Geographics Global Mapper and ESRI ArcMap). The photogrammetric products generated for the study, as detailed in this paper, include Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), Digital Terrain Models (DTMs), orthomosaics (orthophotos), and others. At Sfântu Gheorghe beach, a comparison between 2023 and 2024 photogrammetric surveys revealed that the left bank of the Sf. Gheorghe Arm, at the river mouth into the Black Sea, suffered from a twist (erosion) of up to 64 metres. Additionally, on the selected perimetre (total area of 31,910 square meters ) from the beach and dune zone of Sf. Gheorghe, an area of up to 16,202 square meters was eroded between 2023 and 2024. This contrasts with the period between 2022 and 2023, during which deposition predominated. Erosion at the Danube mouths and the adjacent Black Sea coastline is driven by a complex interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors. Natural processes, including subsidence, sea-level rise, and episodic extreme storm events, contribute significantly to coastal dynamics. Meanwhile, human-induced factors, such as upstream hydrotechnical works that limits sediment transport, cutting of navigation canals, as well as the exacerbating effects of climate change, further accelerate erosion. The recent Structure-from-Motion (SfM) surveys provide essential quantitative data, enabling a detailed analysis of both short-term and long-term morphodynamic changes influenced by seasonal variations and extreme hydrometeorological events in this highly dynamic coastal system.
One of the more important questions in hydrology is: if the climate warms in the future, will there be an intensification of the water cycle and, if so, the nature of that intensification? There is considerable interest in this question because an intensification of the water cycle may lead to changes in water-resource availability, an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, floods, and droughts, and an amplification of warming through the water vapor feedback. Empirical evidence for ongoing intensification of the water cycle would provide additional support for the theoretical framework that links intensification with warming. This paper briefly reviews the current state of science regarding historical trends in hydrologic variables, including precipitation, runoff, tropospheric water vapor, soil moisture, glacier mass balance, evaporation, evapotranspiration, and growing season length. Data are often incomplete in spatial and temporal domains and regional analyses are variable and sometimes contradictory; however, the weight of evidence indicates an ongoing intensification of the water cycle. In contrast to these trends, the empirical evidence to date does not consistently support an increase in the frequency or intensity of tropical storms and floods.
Snow avalanches are a natural hazard in mountainous areas worldwide with severe impacts that include fatalities, damage to infrastructure, disruption to commerce, and landscape disturbance. Understanding long-term avalanche frequency patterns, and associated climate and weather influences, improves our understanding of how climate change may affect avalanche activity. We used dendrochronological techniques to evaluate the historical frequency of large magnitude avalanches (LMAs) in the high-latitude climate of southeast Alaska, United States. We collected 434 cross sections throughout six avalanche paths near Juneau, Alaska. This resulted in 2706 identified avalanche growth disturbances between 1720 and 2018, which allowed us to reconstruct 82 years with LMA activity across three sub-regions. By combining this tree-ring-derived avalanche data set with a suite of climate and atmospheric variables and applying a generalized linear model to fit a binomial regression, we found that February and March precipitation and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) were significant predictors of LMA activity in the study area. Specifically, LMA activity occurred during winters with substantial February and March precipitation and neutral or negative (cold) ONI values, while years not characterized by LMAs occur more frequently during warm winters (positive ONI values). Our examination of the climate-avalanche relationship in southeast Alaska sheds light on important climate variables and physical processes associated with LMA years. These results can be used to inform long-term infrastructure planning and avalanche mitigation operations in an urban area, such as Juneau, where critical infrastructure is subject to substantial avalanche hazard.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is absorbed by the ocean’s surface where it combines with seawater to form a weak, naturally occurring acid called carbonic acid (H 2 CO 3 ). Increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere results in the absorption of more CO 2 by the ocean and, therefore, increases in the acidity of seawater. This process, known as ocean acidification, has the potential to elicit change in ecosystems and organisms by disrupting biological processes. For example, ocean acidification is a problem for marine organisms such as corals, foraminifera, and algae that precipitate calcium carbonate to form their skeletons and shells (Kleypas and others, 2006). The effects are related to corresponding changes in the carbonate saturation state (Ω), where Ω is the ratio of the ion concentration product (Ca 2+ x CO 3 2- ) to the stoichiometric aragonite solubility product (K*sp) (Langdon and Atkinson, 2005). Because pH and CO 3 2- are strongly interdependent through the inorganic carbon system, the decrease in pH will cause a proportionally greater decrease in CO 3 2- . Globally, ocean acidification is occurring faster than at any time in the last 300 million years (Broeker and others, 1979). Recent evidence indicates that individual oceans are responding at different rates, depending on physical and biological processes. For example in the Arctic Ocean, the rate of saturation state decrease was 2.1 percent per year between 1997 and 2010 (Robbins and others., 2013) in an area as large as Montana, largely because of increases in melt of ice, versus the average rate observed for the Pacific Ocean (0.36 percent per year) (Feely and others, 2012). Unfortunately, comparative data sets over multiyear time frames are often not available because time series baseline carbon information has not been collected in many oceans. Data are needed in subtropical latitudes where carbonate saturation states are already naturally low and fluctuate seasonally. These data will help construct a baseline for the assessment of future changes. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program project "R esponse of Florida Shelf Ecosystems to Climate Change " and in partnership with Kendra Daly, University of South Florida ( USF ), data on surface ocean carbonate chemistry were collected on five cruises along transects on the shallow inner west Florida shelf and northern Gulf of Mexico in 2012. Data from the 2011 cruises were also published (Robbins and others., 2013). The data collected allows the USGS, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), and USF scientists to map variations in ocean chemistry including carbonate saturation states along designated tracks. The USGS also partners with NOAA and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) to model air-sea flux as part of a Gulf of Mexico Carbon Synthesis project led by NASA.
A 1520-cm sediment core from Lake Patzcuaro, Michoacan, Mexico, is 44,000 yr old at the base. All parts of the core have abundant pollen of Pinus (pine), Alnus (alder), and Quercus (oak) with frequent Abies (fir). The interval dated from 44,000 to 11,000 yr ago has a homogeneous flora characterized by abundant Juniperus (juniper) pollen and frequent Artemisia (sagebrush). It is believed to represent an appreciably drier and colder climate than at present. The Holocene at Lake Patzcuaro is characterized by a moderate increase in Pinus pollen and the loss of Juniperus pollen, as the modern type of climate succeeded. Alnus was abundant until about 5000 yr ago; its abrupt decrease with the first appearance of herbaceous weed pollen may reflect the cutting of lake-shore and stream-course alder communities for agricultural purposes, or it may simply reflect a drying tendency in the climate. Pollen of Zea (corn) appears at Lake Patzcuaro along with low peaks of chenopod and grass pollen at 3500 yr B.P. apparently recording a human population large enough to modify the natural environment, as well as the beginning of agriculture. A rich aquatic flora in this phase suggests eutrophication of the lake by slope erosion. In the most recent period corn is absent from the sediments, perhaps reflecting a change in agricultural practices. The environment changes at Lake Patzcuaro are similar to and correlate with those in the Cuenca de Mexico, where diatom stratigraphy from the Chalco basin indicates fluctuations in lake levels and lake chemistry in response to variations in available moisture. Before 10,000 yr ago climates there were cool and dry, and the Chalco basin was occupied by a shallow freshwater marsh that drained north to Lake Texcoco, where saline water accumulated by evaporation. Increases in effective moisture and possible melting of glaciers during the Holocene caused lake levels to rise throughout the Cuenca de Mexico, and Lake Texcoco flooded the Chalco basin with brackish water. After 5000 yr ago such flooding decreased, and shallow freshwater ponds and marshes were restored in the Chalco basin. This environmental change coincides with the appearance of Zea pollen and suggests cultural control of lake levels and salinity. ?? 1982.
Habitat restoration and creation within human-altered landscapes can buffer the impacts of climate change on wildlife. The Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA) is a coal surface mine reclamation practice that enhances reforestation through soil decompaction and the planting of native trees. Recently, wetland creation has been coupled with FRA to increase habitat available for wildlife, including amphibians. Our objective was to evaluate the response of pond-breeding amphibians to the FRA by comparing species occupancy, richness, and abundance across two FRA age-classes (2–5-year and 8–11-year reclaimed forests), traditionally reclaimed sites that were left to naturally regenerate after mining, and in mature, unmined forests in the Monongahela National Forest (West Virginia, USA). We found that species richness and occupancy estimates did not differ across treatment types. Spotted Salamanders ( Ambystoma maculatum ) and Eastern Newts ( Notophthalmus viridescens ) had the greatest estimated abundances in wetlands in the older FRA treatment. Additionally, larger wetlands had greater abundances of Eastern Newts, Wood Frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ), and Green Frogs ( L. clamitans ) compared to smaller wetlands. Our results suggest that wetland creation and reforestation increases the number of breeding sites and promotes microhabitat and microclimate conditions that likely maximize the resilience of pond-breeding amphibians to anticipated climate changes in the study area.
Climate change is altering conditions in high-elevation streams worldwide, with largely unknown effects on resident communities of aquatic insects. Here, we review the challenges of climate change for high-elevation aquatic insects and how they may respond, focusing on current gaps in knowledge. Understanding current effects and predicting future impacts will depend on progress in three areas. First, we need better descriptions of the multivariate physical challenges and interactions among challenges in high-elevation streams, which include low but rising temperatures, low oxygen supply and increasing oxygen demand, high and rising exposure to ultraviolet radiation, low ionic strength, and variable but shifting flow regimes. These factors are often studied in isolation even though they covary in nature and interact in space and time. Second, we need a better mechanistic understanding of how physical conditions in streams drive the performance of individual insects. Environment-performance links are mediated by physiology and behavior, which are poorly known in high-elevation taxa. Third, we need to define the scope and importance of potential responses across levels of biological organization. Short-term responses are defined by the tolerances of individuals, their capacities to perform adequately across a range of conditions, and behaviors used to exploit local, fine-scale variation in abiotic factors. Longer term responses to climate change, however, may include individual plasticity and evolution of populations. Whether high-elevation aquatic insects can mitigate climatic risks via these pathways is largely unknown.
Original field data show that forest species richness and tree density in the West African Sahel declined in the last half of the 20th century. Average forest species richness of areas of 4 km2 in Northwest Senegal fell from 64 ?? 2 species ca 1945 to 43 ?? 2 species in 1993, a decrease significant at p < 0.001. Densities of trees of height ???3 m declined from 10 ?? 0.3 trees ha-1 in 1954 to 7.8 ?? 0.3 trees ha-1 in 1989, also significant at p < 0.001. Standing wood biomass fell 2.1 t ha-1 in the period 1956-1993, releasing CO2 at a rate of 60 kgC person-1 yr-1. These changes have shifted vegetation zones toward areas of higher rainfall at an average rate of 500 to 600 m yr-1. Arid Sahel species have expanded in the north, tracking a concomitant retraction of mesic Sudan and Guinean species to the south. Multivariate analyses identify latitude and longitude, proxies for rainfall and temperature, as the most significant factors explaining tree and shrub distribution. The changes also decreased human carrying capacity to below actual population densities. The rural population of 45 people km-2 exceeded the 1993 carrying capacity, for firewood from shrubs, of 13 people km-2 (range 1 to 21 people km-2). As an adaptation strategy, ecological and socioeconomic factors favor the natural regeneration of local species over the massive plantation of exotic species. Natural regeneration is a traditional practice in which farmers select small field trees that they wish to raise to maturity, protect them, and prune them to promote rapid growth of the apical meristem. The results of this research provide evidence for desertification in the West African Sahel. These documented impacts of desertification foreshadow possible future effects of climate change.
Designing conservation strategies in human-dominated landscapes is challenging, owing to complex human-natural systems and evolving societal values. To meet this challenge, a robust, adaptive strategy should have a process for flexible implementation of incremental actions. We describe a hypothetical example for the Rio Grande de Arecibo watershed and coastal wetlands in Puerto Rico to address the first component. The process begins by identifying shared stakeholder objectives. This process benefits from a review of foundational research and knowledge base that includes global forcings and vulnerability of resources of interest. Forcings include climate change and pervasive urban sprawl. We focus on two taxonomic groups with differing life histories but strong dependence on water resource dynamics, another resource valued by humans. We stipulate objectives and multiple actions, but focus on those pertaining to hydro-management as the common thread in our example. We advanced two decision contexts of contrasting complexity, illustrated links between objectives and actions, and highlighted trade-offs triggered by varying resource valuation. Our focus was to highlight various components necessary to frame a resilience-based strategy, but we cannot overemphasize the importance of accommodating institutional and stakeholder changing priorities and values to ensure its successful implementation.
Restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem of south Florida is arguably the largest ecosystem restoration effort to date. A critical goal is to return more natural patterns of flow through south Florida wetlands and into the estuaries, but development of realistic targets requires acknowledgement that ecosystems are constantly evolving and changing in response to a variety of natural and human-driven stressors. Examination of ecosystems over long periods of time requires analysis of sedimentary records, such as those deposited in the wetlands and estuaries of south Florida. As sediment accumulates, it preserves information about the animals and plants that lived in the environment and the physical, chemical, and climatic conditions present. One of the methods used to interpret this information is paleoecology-the study of the ecology of previously living organisms. Paleoecologic investigations of south Florida estuaries provide quantitative data on historical variability of salinity and trends that may be applied to statistical models to estimate historical freshwater flow. These data provide a unique context to estimate future ecosystem response to changes related to restoration activities and predicted changes in sea level and temperature, thus increasing the likelihood of successful and sustainable ecosystem restoration.
Walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill), natural recruitment has declined in northern Wisconsin lakes over time. Age-0 and age-1 walleye relative abundance (catch per unit effort; CPE) data from northern Wisconsin (1986–2019) were used to test for abiotic (i.e. lake characteristics and temperature variables) and biotic (age-0 and age-1 CPE) factors influencing age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality. Age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality was elevated at high age-0 CPE and variable at low age-0 CPE, which indicated strong density-dependence. Environmental factors such as spawning and ontogenetic phenology (climate change and ice-off dates), trophic mismatches, and metabolic and consumptive demand influenced age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality less strongly. Elevated age-0 to age-1 walleye mortality at low age-0 CPE supports previous findings of depensatory recruitment dynamics in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Additional research is needed to address elevated juvenile walleye mortality at low adult stock sizes and/or with declining natural recruitment to inform management decisions.
Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.
Theories t hat explain the extinctions characterizing the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary 1-3 need to be tested by analyses of thoroughly sampled biotas. Palynological studies are the primary means for stratigraphic placement of the terrestrial boundary and for estimates of plant extinction 4-12 , but have not been combined with quantitative analyses of fossil leaves (megaflora). Megafloral studies complement palynology by representing local floras with assemblages capable of high taxonomic resolution 13 , but have previously lacked the sample size and stratigraphic spacing needed to resolve latest Cretaceous floral history 5,14-18 . We have now combined megafloral data from a 100-m-thick composite K/T boundary section in North Dakota with detailed palynological analysis. Here the boundary is marked by a 30% palynofloral extinction coincident with iridium and shocked-mineral anomalies and lies ∼ 2 m above the highest dinosaur remains. The megaflora undergoes a 79% turnover across the boundary, and smaller changes 17- and 25-m below it. This pattern is consistent with latest Cretaceous climatic warming preceding a bolide impact.
Explanations for the temporal and spatial patterns of species biodiversity focus on stability-time, disturbance-mosaic (biogenic microhabitat heterogeneity) and competition-predation (biotic interactions) hypotheses. The stability-time hypothesis holds that high species diversity in the deep sea and in the tropics reflects long-term climatic stability. But the influence of climate change on deep-sea diversity has not been studied and recent evidence suggests that deep-sea environments undergo changes in climatically driven temperature and flux of nutrients and organic-carbon during glacial-interglacial cycles. Here we show that Pliocene (2.85-2.40 Myr) deep-sea North Atlantic benthic ostracod (Crustacea) species diversity is related to solar insolation changes caused by 41,000-yr cycles of Earth's obliquity (tilt). Temporal changes in diversity, as measured by the Shannon- Weiner index, H(S), correlate with independent climate indicators of benthic foraminiferal oxygen-isotope ratios (mainly ice volume) and ostracod Mg:Ca ratios (bottomwater temperature). During glacial periods, H(S) = 0.2-0.6, whereas during interglacials, H(S) = 1.2-1.6, which is three to four times as high. The control of deep-sea benthic diversity by cyclic climate change at timescales of 103-104 yr does not support the stability-time hypothesis because it shows that the deep sea is a temporally dynamic environment. Diversity oscillations reflect large-scale response of the benthic community to climatically driven changes in either thermohaline circulation, bottom temperature (or temperature-related factors) and food, and a coupling of benthic diversity to surface productivity.