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USGS2010

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2013

Evolution of a reassortant North American gull influenza virus lineage: drift, shift and stability

Background: The role of gulls in the ecology of avian influenza (AI) is different than that of waterfowl. Different constellations of subtypes circulate within the two groups of birds and AI viruses isolated from North American gulls frequently possess reassortant genomes with genetic elements from both North America and Eurasian lineages. A 2008 isolate from a Newfoundland Great Black-backed Gull contained a mix of North American waterfowl, North American gull and Eurasian lineage genes. Methods: We isolated, sequenced and phylogenetically compared avian influenza viruses from 2009 Canadian wild birds. Results: We analyzed six 2009 virus isolates from Canada and found the same phylogenetic lineage had persisted over a larger geographic area, with an expanded host range that included dabbling and diving ducks as well as gulls. All of the 2009 virus isolates contained an internal protein coding set of genes of the same Eurasian lineage genes except PB1 that was from a North American lineage, and these genes continued to evolve by genetic drift. We show evidence that the 2008 Great Black-backed Gull virus was derived from this lineage with a reassortment of a North American PA gene into the more stable core set of internal protein coding genes that has circulated in avian populations for at least 2 years. From this core, the surface glycoprotein genes have switched several times creating H13N6, H13N2, and H16N3 subtypes. These gene segments were from North American lineages except for the H16 and N3 vRNAs. Conclusions: This process appears similar to genetic shifts seen with swine influenza where a stable "triple reassortant internal gene" core has circulated in swine populations with genetic shifts occurring with hemaggluttinin and neuraminidase proteins getting periodically switched. Thus gulls may serve as genetic mixing vessels for different lineages of avian influenza, similar to the role of swine with regards to human influenza. These findings illustrate the need for continued surveillance in gull and waterfowl populations, both on the Pacific and especially Atlantic coasts of North America, to document virus intercontinental movement and the role of gull species in the evolution and epidemiology of AI.

Virology Journal↗

USGS2021

Behavioral state-dependent habitat selection and implications for animal translocations

Post-release monitoring of translocated animals is often used to inform future translocation protocols. Quantifying habitat selection of translocated individuals may help identify features that characterize good settlement habitat and thus inform the choice of future release sites. However, translocated animals often undergo post-release behavioural modification, and their habitat selection may vary depending on the underlying behavioural state. To investigate this, we analysed behavioural state-dependent habitat selection in female greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus translocated from Wyoming to North Dakota, USA, using Hidden Markov Models combined with Integrated Step Selection Analysis. We segmented individual trajectories into behavioural phases corresponding to an exploratory state, characterized by broad and directed movements, and a restricted state, characterized by short and tortuous movements. Then, we quantified habitat selection in each state while accounting for seasonality and individual reproductive status. While in the exploratory state, sage-grouse exhibited natal habitat preference induction by selecting for high sagebrush cover, which is typical of their natal area in Wyoming but not of the release area in North Dakota. In the restricted state, sage-grouse selected for gentle topography and also adjusted their habitat selection to constraints imposed by seasonality and reproductive needs by selecting for high herbaceous cover during brood rearing. Synthesis and applications . Habitat selection of translocated sage-grouse differed between the post-release exploration and the settlement phase. Features selected after settling, not during exploration, are likely indicative of suitable settlement habitat. Our results suggest that areas characterized by gentle topography and high herbaceous cover are well-suited as release sites for sage-grouse translocated during the summer, especially brood-rearing females, and that sagebrush cover may not be a critical factor in determining the appropriateness of release sites for sage-grouse in North Dakota. Our findings highlight the need to consider behaviour when using habitat selection estimates to inform the choice of future release sites.

North Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Multi-level thresholds of residential and agricultural land use for elk avoidance across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

1. Conversion of land for settlements and agriculture is increasing globally and can influence wildlife space use. However, there is limited research to identify the thresholds of land-use change that incur wildlife avoidance and how these thresh-olds might vary across levels of selection. 2. We evaluated multi-level avoidance thresholds of elk Cervus canadensis impacted by residential development and irrigated agriculture across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Using GPS data from765 elk in 21 herds, we estimated habitat selection in relation to development and agriculture at three levels (home range selection, within home range selection and movement path selection). Next, using individual selection covariates and as-sociated measures of land-use availability, we used functional-response models to evaluate how selection varied based on availability, and in turn, to estimate avoidance thresholds. 3. We found individual and level-specific variation in elk responses to environmental factors. Elk exhibited stronger responses (either selection or avoidance) when selecting home range locations (i.e. second-order selection) than when selecting areas within home ranges (i.e. third-order selection) or selecting movement paths (i.e. fourth-order selection). Importantly, elk avoidance of development and agriculture changed as the amount of land in these categories changed. Across all levels of selection elk exhibited neutral selection for human development at low levels of availability (<1.1%–2.2% developed) but avoided areas that were >1.1%–2.2% developed. Conversely, elk selected positively for irrigated agriculture at low to moderate levels of availability (<52.0%–66.2% agriculture) but exhibited neutral selection in areas that were >52.0%–66.2% agriculture. 4. Synthesis and applications . Elk avoidance of low levels of human development suggests conservation efforts such as restrictions on future development or conservation easements could focus on areas that are still below 2% developed. Additionally, because elk selection was strongest at the landscape scale, conservation actions that are based on information about the overall landscape structure may be most impactful. Our results highlight the importance of under-standing variability in wildlife habitat selection at multiple levels, particularly in relation to land-use change, and highlight how functional response modelling can help inform landscape conservation.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2010

Experimental drought in a tropical rain forest increases soil carbon dioxide losses to the atmosphere

Climate models predict precipitation changes for much of the humid tropics, yet few studies have investigated the potential consequences of drought on soil carbon (C) cycling in this important biome. In wet tropical forests, drought could stimulate soil respiration via overall reductions in soil anoxia, but previous research suggests that litter decomposition is positively correlated with high rainfall fluxes that move large quantities of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the litter layer to the soil surface. Thus, reduced rainfall could also limit C delivery to the soil surface, reducing respiration rates. We conducted a throughfall manipulation experiment to investigate how 25% and 50% reductions in rainfall altered both C movement into soils and the effects of those DOM fluxes on soil respiration rates. In response to the experimental drought, soil respiration rates increased in both the −25% and −50% treatments. Throughfall fluxes were reduced by 26% and 55% in the −25% and −50% treatments, respectively. However, total DOM fluxes leached from the litter did not vary between treatments, because the concentrations of leached DOM reaching the soil surface increased in response to the simulated drought. Annual DOM concentrations averaged 7.7 ± 0.8, 11.2 ± 0.9, and 15.8 ± 1.2 mg C/L in the control, −25%, and −50% plots, respectively, and DOM concentrations were positively correlated with soil respiration rates. A laboratory incubation experiment confirmed the potential importance of DOM concentration on soil respiration rates, suggesting that this mechanism could contribute to the increase in CO 2 fluxes observed in the reduced rainfall plots. Across all plots, the data suggested that soil CO 2 fluxes were partially regulated by the magnitude and concentration of soluble C delivered to the soil, but also by soil moisture and soil oxygen availability. Together, our data suggest that declines in precipitation in tropical rain forests could drive higher CO 2 fluxes to the atmosphere both via increased soil O 2 availability and through responses to elevated DOM concentrations.

Golfo Dulce Forest Reserve↗

USGS2022

Biofouling of a unionid mussel by dreissenid mussels in nearshore zones of the Great Lakes

In North America, native unionid mussels are imperiled due to factors such as habitat degradation, pollution, and invasive species. One of the most substantial threats is that posed by dreissenid mussels, which are invasive mussels that attach to hard substrates including unionid shells and can restrict movement and feeding of unionids. This dreissenid mussel biofouling of unionids varies spatially in large ecosystems, such as the Great Lakes, with some areas having low enough biofouling to form effective refugia where unionid mussels might persist. Here, we measured biofouling on mussels suspended in cages over the growing season (generally first week in June to last week of August) over 3 years in nearshore areas in Lake Erie (2014–2016), Lake Michigan (Grand Traverse Bay, 2015 and Green Bay, 2016), and Lake Huron (2015). Biofouling varied substantially by years within Lake Erie, with increasingly higher biofouling rates each year. Although dreissenid mussels are present throughout these lakes, we observed very low biofouling in Grand Traverse Bay (Lake Michigan) and Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron), with no dreissenid mussels in 8 of 9 sites across these two bays. Sampling in the rivermouth of the Fox River (Wisconsin) and the Maumee River (Ohio) both showed very high biofouling in areas adjacent to the outlet of these tributaries into Green Bay and Maumee Bay (Lake Erie), respectively. These watersheds are dominated by agriculture, and we would expect high growth of primary producers (i.e., mussel food) and primary consumers (unionids and zebra mussels) in these areas compared to the other sampled bays or the open waters of the Great Lakes.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Foraging destinations and marine habitat use of short-tailed albatrosses: A multi-scale approach using first-passage time analysis

We used satellite telemetry, remotely sensed data (bathymetry, chlorophyll a (chl a), sea-surface temperature (SST), wind speed) and first-passage time (FPT) analysis to determine the distribution, movement patterns, and habitat associations of short-tailed albatrosses (Phoebastria albatrus) during the non-breeding season, 2002 and 2003. Satellite transmitters were deployed on birds immediately prior to their departure from a breeding colony at Torishima, Japan (n = 11), or at-sea in the Aleutian Islands (n = 3). Tracking durations ranged from 51 to 138 days for a total of 6709 locations after filtering (131 - 808 per bird). FPT (time required to transit a circle of given radius) revealed the location and spatial scale of area-restricted search (ARS) patterns along flight paths. On average, ARS occurred within 70 km radii. Consequently, the fit of the habitat use models increased at spatial scales beyond a 40 km FPT radius (R2 = 0.31) and stabilized for scales of 70 km and larger (R2=0.40- 0.51). At all scales, wind speed, depth or depth gradient, and chl a or chl a gradient had a significant effect on FPT (i.e., residence time). FPT increased within regions of higher gradients of depth and chl a. In contrast, FPT decreased within regions of greater depth and wind speed, with a significant interaction of wind speed and depth at some scales. Sea-surface temperature or its interactions were only significant at large spatial scales (???160 km FPT radius). Albatrosses engaged in ARS activities primarily over the shelf break and slope, including Kuroshio and Oyashio regions off the western subarctic gyre. Occasionally, birds transited the northern boundary of the Kuroshio Extension while in-route to the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea, but overall spent little time in the western gyre. In the Aleutian Islands, ARS occurred within straits, particularly along the central and western part of the archipelago. In the Bering Sea, ARS occurred along the northern continental shelf break, the Kamchatka Current region, and east of the Commander Islands. Non-breeding short-tailed albatross concentrate foraging in oceanic areas characterized by gradients in topography and water column productivity. This study provides an understanding of the foraging ecology for a highly migratory, imperiled seabird, and confirms the importance of shelf break and slope regions as hot spots for a variety of top marine predators in the North Pacific.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗

USGS2026

Local and landscape-level environmental conditions drive habitat selection across terrestrial mammal species

Aim Animal movements are a fundamental process affecting communities and ecosystems. Quantifying habitat selection across species and habitats is key for understanding how animals respond to environmental change. Currently, we lack comparative studies that examine how habitat selection varies across species traits and landscapes. We aim to quantify global patterns of habitat selection to help understand the fundamental drivers of movement behaviour. Location Global. Time Period Contemporary. Major Taxa Studied Terrestrial mammals. Methods We estimated selection coefficients for terrain ruggedness, vegetation productivity, human population density and distance to roads of individual terrestrial mammals through step-selection analysis of 1344 GPS tracks across 48 species. We quantified intra- and interspecific variation and tested whether selection coefficients were associated with species traits and habitat availability. Results We observe an overall avoidance of roads and areas of high human population density as well as rugged terrain, with a large proportion of individuals selecting for areas of intermediate NDVI. However, we also found large intraspecific variation in habitat selection and show that this variation is predicted by local and landscape-level environmental conditions rather than species traits. Individuals in more remote areas exhibited weaker functional responses to human presence than those in more disturbed areas. Avoidance of rugged terrain is also context-dependent, with stronger avoidance when local ruggedness is high. The only exception to the observed intraspecific variability is consistent species-level responses to road proximity. Main Conclusions Our findings contribute to the understanding of habitat selection by terrestrial mammals, showing that selection is largely shaped by environmental conditions and that animals exhibit high plasticity in their responses. Our results also provide further evidence for the significant impact of roads on animal movement. These insights can help us to understand the potential effects of environmental change on the behaviour of mammal species around the world.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

USGS2023

An agent-based model to quantify energetics, movement and habitat selection of mid-continent mallards in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

The dynamics of wintering waterfowl populations at the landscape scale are the result of complex interactions of environmental, behavioral and energetic drivers. Agent-based models provide a method to directly link these factors in a spatially explicit framework and allow the emergence of patterns from the aggregation of individual agent actions. We adapted the Spatially-explicit Waterbird Agent-based Model Program (SWAMP), originally developed for waterfowl in central California, to simulate a basin-scale population of mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ) wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley over a four-month period (November–February). Simulated agents move within the landscape, foraging on areas made available based on a probabilistic inundation status, and converting food resources to endogenous energy. The model uses a high-resolution map of eastern Arkansas waterfowl habitats and incorporates a hierarchical habitat selection system that enables mallards to relocate at increasing scales in response to changing food availability. We validated the performance of modeled mallard body condition and behavioral metrics under a range of environmental conditions against expected outcomes derived from empirical data and found that the simulation produced realistic representations of changes in flight distances, energy expenditure, lipid storage, and foraging habitat use in response to depleting food resources over time. We discuss the model's applicability as a tool to quantify waterfowl response to a range of environmental conditions and to evaluate scenarios of landscape composition and configuration in the context of waterfowl population management.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2023

Marginal value analysis reveals shifting importance of migration habitat for waterfowl under a changing climate

Migratory waterfowl are an important resource for consumptive and non-consumptive users alike and provide tremendous economic value in North America. These birds rely on a complex matrix of public and private land for forage and roosting during migration and wintering periods, and substantial conservation effort focuses on increasing the amount and quality of target habitat. Yet, the value of habitat is a function not only of a site's resources but also of its geographic position and weather. To quantify this value, we used a continental-scale energetics-based model of daily dabbling duck movement to assess the marginal value of lands across the contiguous United States during the non-breeding period (September to May). We examined effects of eliminating each habitat node (32 × 32 km) in both a particularly cold and a particularly warm winter, asking which nodes had the largest effect on survival. The marginal value of habitat nodes for migrating dabbling ducks was a function of forage and roosting habitat but, more importantly, of geography (especially latitude and region). Irrespective of weather, nodes in the Southeast, central East Coast, and California made the largest positive contributions to survival. Conversely, nodes in the Midwest, Northeast, Florida, and the Pacific Northwest had consistent negative effects. Effects (positive and negative) of more northerly nodes occurred in late fall or early spring when climate was often severe and was most variable. Importance and effects of many nodes varied considerably between a cold and a warm winter. Much of the Midwest and central Great Plains benefited duck survival in a warm winter, and projected future warming may improve the value of lands in these regions, including many National Wildlife Refuges, for migrating dabbling ducks. Our results highlight the geographic variability in habitat value, as well as shifts that may occur in these values due to climate change.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2016

Theory and application of semiochemicals in nuisance fish control

Controlling unwanted, or nuisance, fishes is becoming an increasingly urgent issue with few obvious solutions. Because fish rely heavily on semiochemicals, or chemical compounds that convey information between and within species, to mediate aspects of their life histories, these compounds are increasingly being considered as an option to help control wild fish. Possible uses of semiochemicals include measuring their presence in water to estimate population size, adding them to traps to count or remove specific species of fish, adding them to waterways to manipulate large-scale movement patterns, and saturating the environment with synthesized semiochemicals to disrupt responses to the natural cue. These applications may be especially appropriate for pheromones, chemical signals that pass between members of same species and which also have extreme specificity and potency. Alarm cues, compounds released by injured fish, and cues released by potential predators also could function as repellents and be especially useful if paired with pheromonal attractants in “push-pull” configurations. Approximately half a dozen attractive pheromones now have been partially identified in fish, and those for the sea lamprey and the common carp have been tested in the field with modest success. Alarm and predator cues for sea lamprey also have been tested in the laboratory and field with some success. Success has been hampered by our incomplete understanding of chemical identity, a lack of synthesized compounds, the fact that laboratory bioassays do not always reflect natural environments, and the relative difficulty of conducting trials on wild fishes because of short field seasons and regulatory requirements. Nevertheless, workers continue efforts to identify pheromones because of the great potential elucidated by insect control and the fact that few tools are available to control nuisance fish. Approaches developed for nuisance fish also could be applied to valued fishes, which suffer from a lack of powerful management tools.

Journal of Chemical Ecology↗

USGS2018

Multiple metrics provide context for the distribution of a highly mobile fish predator, the blue catfish

Data sets with increased spatial and temporal resolution can help researchers and resource managers quantify representative distributional patterns of mobile sportfish. In this research, first, we illustrate patterns of sportfish distribution using individual ( percent of population, residence time, number of movements ) and combined distributional metrics. Second, we apply these metrics to one highly mobile fish species, the blue catfish ( Ictalurus furcatus ), across a range of spatial (whole reservoir, region, site) and temporal (year, month, diel period) scales. Specifically, we tracked 123 acoustically tagged blue catfish with a 20-receiver array in Milford Reservoir, KS, USA. When we integrated metrics, four site-specific distributional patterns emerged: (a) a large, active multi-site fish aggregation, (b) localised site fidelity, (c) transitional sites and (d) rarely used locations. These patterns would not have been detected using a single metric as each measurement revealed a different piece of the distribution story. For example, if we had only quantified percent of population, we could identify fish location, but not whether individual fish spent time at a location or were just passing through. Our examination of multiple scales also provided a novel context for interpreting site-specific patterns. As an illustration of this insight, using conventional approaches, we would have observed heterogeneity, but we would not have detected fish aggregations, in which individual fish either remained or repeatedly returned to a site. In summary, our results show the advantage of setting the entire ecosystem as the study boundary to integrate multiple responses using a spatially and temporally extensive data set.

Kansas↗

USGS2011

Effects of sample size, number of markers, and allelic richness on the detection of spatial genetic pattern

The influence of study design on the ability to detect the effects of landscape pattern on gene flow is one of the most pressing methodological gaps in landscape genetic research. To investigate the effect of study design on landscape genetics inference, we used a spatially-explicit, individual-based program to simulate gene flow in a spatially continuous population inhabiting a landscape with gradual spatial changes in resistance to movement. We simulated a wide range of combinations of number of loci, number of alleles per locus and number of individuals sampled from the population. We assessed how these three aspects of study design influenced the statistical power to successfully identify the generating process among competing hypotheses of isolation-by-distance, isolation-by-barrier, and isolation-by-landscape resistance using a causal modelling approach with partial Mantel tests. We modelled the statistical power to identify the generating process as a response surface for equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions after introduction of isolation-by-landscape resistance. All three variables (loci, alleles and sampled individuals) affect the power of causal modelling, but to different degrees. Stronger partial Mantel r correlations between landscape distances and genetic distances were found when more loci were used and when loci were more variable, which makes comparisons of effect size between studies difficult. Number of individuals did not affect the accuracy through mean equilibrium partial Mantel r , but larger samples decreased the uncertainty (increasing the precision) of equilibrium partial Mantel r estimates. We conclude that amplifying more (and more variable) loci is likely to increase the power of landscape genetic inferences more than increasing number of individuals.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

USGS2019

Body shape is related to the attempt rate and passage success of brook trout at in-stream barriers

The ability to move between habitats has important implications for fitness in many species. In-stream barriers such as culverts can impede movements of riverine fishes and thus reduce connectivity between habitats. The ability of fish to overcome barriers is related to the features of the environment and the barrier itself, but also to physiological, morphological and behavioural traits of the fish. Among these, body shape varies among and within species, and influences swimming ability, a key component of passage performance through culverts. We conducted an experimental study on wild brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) to assess the effects of individual body shape on attempt rate and passage success through culverts on six streams. A more streamlined body shape was associated with an increased motivation to enter and ascend the culverts, and, to a lesser extent, with the probability of successful passage once an attempt was staged. Motivation and successful passage were also influenced by the density of conspecifics below the culvert, time of day, fish body size and water velocity. Policy implications. While fish body shape is expected to influence swimming performance, our research shows the most important effect of body shape to be on an individual's motivation to stage passage attempts at culverts. This study points to an important connection between behaviour and morphological traits that influence passage success and suggests that in-stream barriers may be an important agent of selection on behaviour and morphology in wild fish populations.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2022

Effects of weather variation on waterfowl migration: Lessons from a continental-scale generalizable avian movement and energetics model

We developed a continental energetics-based model of daily mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) movement during the non-breeding period (September to May) to predict year-specific migration and overwinter occurrence. The model approximates movements and stopovers as functions of metabolism and weather, in terms of temperature and frozen precipitation (i.e., snow). The model is a Markov process operating at the population level and is parameterized through a review of literature. We applied the model to 62 years of daily weather data for the non-breeding period. The average proportion of available habitat decreased as weather severity increased, with mortality decreasing as the proportion of available habitat increased. The most commonly used locations during the course of the non-breeding period were generally consistent across years, with the most inter-annual variation present in the overwintering area. Our model revealed that the distribution of mallards on the landscape changed more dramatically when the variation in daily available habitat was greater. The main routes for avian migration in North America were predicted by our simulations: the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific flyways. Our model predicted an average of 77.4% survivorship for the non-breeding period across all years (range = 76.4%–78.4%), with lowest survivorship during autumn (90.5 ± 1.4%), intermediate survivorship in winter (91.8 ± 0.7%), and greatest survivorship in spring (93.6 ± 1.1%). We provide the parameters necessary for exploration within and among other taxa to leverage the generalizability of this migration model to a broader expanse of bird species, and across a range of climate change and land use/land cover change scenarios.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2015

The importance of range edges for an irruptive species during extreme weather events

Context Threats to wildlife species from extreme events, such as droughts, are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. Extreme events can cause mortality and community-level changes, but for some mobile species, movement away from areas affected may be a viable option. Objectives We examined the effect of extreme weather on spatial patterns of abundance for an irruptive grassland bird species, the Dickcissel ( Spiza americana ). Methods We calculated route-level annual abundances and abundance anomalies from 1980 to 2012 from North American Breeding Bird Survey data, and classified the Dickcissel’s range into core and edge regions using these abundances. We then compared abundances in the core and edge regions to the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, a measure of drought, in linear regressions. Results We found that Dickcissel irruptions in the northern range edges were related to drought conditions in the range core, potentially a consequence of birds being ‘pushed’ to the range edge when weather was unsuitable. Specifically, Dickcissels moved into refuge sites containing a high proportion of cultivated crops, with higher vegetation greenness, than those areas they leave during drought years. Conclusions In a changing climate where more frequent extreme weather may be more common, conservation strategies for weather-sensitive species may require consideration of habitat in the edges of species’ ranges, even though non-core areas may be unoccupied in ‘normal’ years. Our results highlight the conservation importance of range edges in providing refuge from extreme events, such as drought, and climate change.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2008

Trade-offs of predation and foraging explain sexual segregation in African buffalo

1. Many studies have investigated why males and females segregate spatially in sexually dimorphic species. These studies have focused primarily on temperate zone ungulates in areas lacking intact predator communities, and few have directly assessed predation rates in different social environments. 2. Data on the movement, social affiliation, mortality and foraging of radio-collared African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) were collected from 2001-06 in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. 3. The vast majority of mortality events were due to lion (Panthera leo) predation, and the mortality hazard associated with being an adult male buffalo in a male-only 'bachelor' group was almost four times higher than for adult females in mixed herds. The mortality rates of adult males and females within mixed herds were not statistically different. Mortality sites of male and female buffalo were in areas of low visibility similar to those used by bachelor groups, while mixed herds tended to use more open habitats. 4. Males in bachelor groups ate similar or higher quality food (as indexed by percentage faecal nitrogen), and moved almost a third less distance per day compared with mixed herds. As a result, males in bachelor groups gained more body condition than did males in breeding herds. 5. Recent comparative analyses suggest the activity-budget hypothesis as a common underlying cause of social segregation. However, our intensive study, in an area with an intact predator community showed that male and female buffalo segregated by habitat and supported the predation-risk hypothesis. Male African buffalo appear to trade increased predation risk for additional energy gains in bachelor groups, which presumably leads to increased reproductive success. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2021

Assessing the population impacts and cost‐effectiveness of a conservation translocation

Managers often move, or translocate, organisms into habitats that are assumed to be suitable, however the consequences of these translocations are usually not rigorously assessed. Robust assessment of these management experiments should consider impacts to both donor and recipient populations and compare the cost‐effectiveness of translocations to other actions. Here we evaluate translocations of a federally listed fish species, humpback chub within a tributary to the Colorado River in its Grand Canyon reach (Arizona, USA). We analyze mark‐recapture data with multistate models to estimate vital rates (growth, survival, and movement) for the donor and recipient populations while accounting for substantial temporal variation in vital rates. We then use stochastic matrix projections to quantify the impact of translocations on adult population size. Lastly, we compare costs of translocations to another, legally required management action, non‐native fish removal, by modifying an existing bioeconomic model. We estimate that six of eight translocations during the study period positively impacted adult abundance and that the overall population impact was positive. Population projections suggest that each chub translocated per year increases the equilibrium adult population size by 1.2 (95% CI: 0.4 – 2.2) adults, lessening the need for non‐native fish removal. Continuation of translocations at the current rate is expected to save managers ~$50,000 per year by decreasing the annual probability of removals from 0.26 to 0.15. Further savings and decreases in removals could be attained by avoiding translocations in years when there has been no winter/spring runoff and modifying the number of translocated individuals based on estimates of juvenile production in the lower LCR. Synthesis and applications . Translocations that increase the abundance of a rare species can sometimes be viewed as a hedge against future declines that might necessitate more costly interventions. Quantifying population benefits and economic costs of management actions like translocations and comparing alternative actions can lead to cost effective conservation that is more easily sustained.

Arizona↗