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Alaska Interim Land Cover Mapping Program; final report

In 1985, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a research project to develop an interim land cover data base for Alaska as an alternative to the nationwide Land Use and Land Cover Mapping Program. The Alaska Interim Land Cover Mapping Program was subsequently created to develop methods for producing a series of land cover maps that utilized the existing Landsat digital land cover classifications produced by and for the major land management agencies for mapping the vegetation of Alaska. The program was successful in producing digital land cover classifications and statistical summaries using a common statewide classification and in reformatting these data to produce l:250,000-scale quadrangle-based maps directly from the Scitex laser plotter. A Federal and State agency review of these products found considerable user support for the maps. Presently the Geological Survey is committed to digital processing of six to eight quadrangles each year.

Open-File Report↗

Modified Methodology for Projecting Coastal Louisiana Land Changes over the Next 50 Years

The coastal Louisiana landscape is continually undergoing geomorphologic changes (in particular, land loss); however, after the 2005 hurricane season, the changes were intensified because of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The amount of land loss caused by the 2005 hurricane season was 42 percent (562 km2) of the total land loss (1,329 km2) that was projected for the next 50 years in the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA), Louisiana Ecosystem Restoration Study. The purpose of this study is to provide information on potential changes to coastal Louisiana by using a revised LCA study methodology. In the revised methodology, we used classified Landsat TM satellite imagery from 1990, 2001, 2004, and 2006 to calculate the 'background' or ambient land-water change rates but divided the Louisiana coastal area differently on the basis of (1) geographic regions ('subprovinces') and (2) specific homogeneous habitat types. Defining polygons by subprovinces (1, Pontchartrain Basin; 2, Barataria Basin; 3, Vermilion/Terrebonne Basins; and 4, the Chenier Plain area) allows for a specific erosion rate to be applied to that area. Further subdividing the provinces by habitat type allows for specific erosion rates for a particular vegetation type to be applied. Our modified methodology resulted in 24 polygons rather than the 183 that were used in the LCA study; further, actively managed areas and the CWPPRA areas were not masked out and dealt with separately as in the LCA study. This revised methodology assumes that erosion rates for habitat types by subprovince are under the influence of similar environmental conditions (sediment depletion, subsidence, and saltwater intrusion). Background change rate for three time periods (1990-2001, 1990-2004, and 1990-2006) were calculated by taking the difference in water or land among each time period and dividing it by the time interval. This calculation gives an annual change rate for each polygon per time period. Change rates for each time period were then used to compute the projected change in each subprovince and habitat type over 50 years by using the same compound rate functions used in the LCA study. The resulting maps show projected land changes based on the revised methodology and inclusion of damage by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Comparison of projected land change values between the LCA study and this study shows that this revised methodology - that is, using a reduced polygon subset (reduced from 183 to 24) based on habitat type and subprovince - can be used as a quick projection of land loss.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Land-Cover Trends of the Central Basin and Range Ecoregion

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends research project is focused on understanding the amounts, rates, trends, causes, and implications of contemporary land-use and land-cover (LU/LC) change in the United States. This project is supported by the USGS Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). LU/LC change is a pervasive process that modifies landscape characteristics and affects a broad range of socioeconomic, biologic, and hydrologic systems. Understanding the impacts and feedbacks of LU/LC change on environmental systems requires an understanding of the rates, patterns, and driving forces of past, present, and future LU/LC change. The objectives of the Land Cover Trends project are to (1) determine and describe the amount, rates, and trends of contemporary LU/LC change by ecoregion for the period 1973-2000 for the conterminous United States, (2) document the causes, driving forces, and implications of change, and (3) synthesize individual ecoregion results into a national assessment of LU/LC change. The Land Cover Trends research team includes staff from the USGS National Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS), Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center, Eastern Geographic Science Center, Mid-Continent Geographic Science Center, and the Western Geographic Science Center. Other partners include researchers at South Dakota State University, University of Southern Mississippi, and State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry. This report presents an assessment of LU/LC change in the Central Basin and Range ecoregion for the period 1973-2000. The Central Basin and Range ecoregion is one of 84 Level-III ecoregions as defined by the Environmental Protection Agency. Ecoregions have served as a spatial framework for environmental resource management and to denote areas that contain a geographically distinct assemblage of biotic and abiotic phenomena including geology, physiography, vegetation, climate, soils, land use, wildlife, and hydrology. The established Land Cover Trends methodology generates estimates of LU/LC change using a probability sampling approach and change-detection analysis of thematic land-cover images derived from Landsat satellite imagery.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Effects of Land-Use Changes and Ground-Water Withdrawals on Stream Base Flow, Pocono Creek Watershed, Monroe County, Pennsylvania

The Pocono Creek watershed drains 46.5 square miles in eastern Monroe County, Pa. Between 2000 and 2020, the population of Monroe County is expected to increase by 70 percent, which will result in substantial changes in land-use patterns. An evaluation of the effect of reduced recharge from land-use changes and additional ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the Delaware River Basin Commission as part of the USEPA?s Framework for Sustainable Watershed Management Initiative. Two models were used. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed by the USEPA provided areal recharge values for 2000 land use and projected full buildout land use. The USGS MODFLOW-2000 ground-water-flow model was used to estimate the effect of reduced recharge from changes in land use and additional ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow. This report describes the ground-water-flow-model simulations. The Pocono Creek watershed is underlain by sedimentary rock of Devonian age, which is overlain by a veneer of glacial deposits. All water-supply wells are cased into and derive water from the bedrock. In the ground-water-flow model, the surficial geologic units were grouped into six categories: (1) moraine deposits, (2) stratified drift, (3) lake deposits, (4) outwash, (5) swamp deposits, and (6) undifferentiated deposits. The unconsolidated surficial deposits are not used as a source of water. The ground-water and surface-water systems are well connected in the Pocono Creek watershed. Base flow measured on October 13, 2004, at 27 sites for model calibration showed that streams gained water between all sites measured except in the lower reach of Pocono Creek. The ground-water-flow model included the entire Pocono Creek watershed. Horizontally, the modeled area was divided into a 53 by 155 cell grid with 6,060 active cells. Vertically, the modeled area was discretized into four layers. Layers 1 and 2 represented the unconsolidated surficial deposits where they are present and bedrock where the surficial deposits are absent. Layer 3 represented shallow bedrock and was 200 ft (feet) thick. Layer 4 represented deep bedrock and was 300 ft thick. A total of 873 cells representing streams were assigned to layer 1. Recharge rates for model calibration were provided by the USEPA SWAT model for 2000 land-use conditions. Recharge rates for 2000 for the 29 subwatersheds in the SWAT model ranged from 6.11 to 22.66 inches per year. Because the ground-water-flow model was calibrated to base-flow data collected on October 13, 2004, the 2000 recharge rates were multiplied by 1.18 so the volume of recharge was equal to the volume of streamflow measured at the mouth of Pocono Creek. During model calibration, adjustments were made to aquifer hydraulic conductivity and streambed conductance. Simulated base flows and hydraulic heads were compared to measured base flows and hydraulic heads using the root mean squared error (RMSE) between measured and simulated values. The RMSE of the calibrated model for base flow was 4.7 cubic feet per second for 27 locations, and the RMSE for hydraulic heads for 15 locations was 35 ft. The USEPA SWAT model was used to provide areal recharge values for 2000 and full buildout land-use conditions. The change in recharge ranged from an increase of 37.8 percent to a decrease of 60.8 percent. The ground-water-flow model was used to simulate base flow for 2000 and full buildout land-use conditions using steady-state simulations. The decrease in simulated base flow ranged from 3.8 to 63 percent at the streamflow-measurement sites. Simulated base flow at streamflow-gaging station Pocono Creek above Wigwam Run near Stroudsburg, Pa. (01441495), decreased 25 percent. This is in general agreement with the SWAT model, which estimated a 30.6-percent loss in base flow at the streamflow-gaging station.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Simulated Effects of Year 2030 Water-Use and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow near the Interstate-495 Corridor, Assabet and Upper Charles River Basins, Eastern Massachusetts

Continued population growth and land development for commercial, industrial, and residential uses have created concerns regarding the future supply of potable water and the quantity of ground water discharging to streams in the area of Interstate 495 in eastern Massachusetts. Two ground-water models developed in 2002-2004 for the Assabet and Upper Charles River Basins were used to simulate water supply and land-use scenarios relevant for the entire Interstate-495 corridor. Future population growth, water demands, and commercial and residential growth were projected for year 2030 by the Metropolitan Area Planning Council. To assess the effects of future development on subbasin streamflows, seven scenarios were simulated by using existing computer-based ground-water-flow models with the data projected for year 2030. The scenarios incorporate three categories of projected 2030 water- and land-use data: (1) 2030 water use, (2) 2030 land use, and (3) a combination of 2030 water use and 2030 land use. Hydrologic, land-use, and water-use data from 1997 through 2001 for the Assabet River Basin study and 1989 through 1998 for the Upper Charles River Basin study were used to represent current conditions - referred to as 'basecase' conditions - in each basin to which each 2030 scenario was compared. The effects of projected 2030 land- and water-use change on streamflows in the Assabet River Basin depended upon the time of year, the hydrologic position of the subbasin in the larger basin, and the relative areas of new commercial and residential development projected for a subbasin. Effects of water use and land use on streamflow were evaluated by comparing average monthly nonstorm streamflow (base flow) for March and September simulated by using the models. The greatest decreases in streamflow (up to 76 percent in one subbasin), compared to the basecase, occurred in September, when streamflows are naturally at their lowest level. By contrast, simulated March streamflows decreased less than 6.5 percent from basecase streamflows in all subbasins for all scenarios. The simulations showed similar effects in the Upper Charles River Basin, but increased water use contributed to decreased simulated streamflow in most subbasins. Simulated changes in March streamflows for 2030 in the Upper Charles River Basin were within +- 6 percent of the basecase for all scenarios and subbasins. Percentage decreases in simulated September streamflows for 2030 were greater than in March but less than the September decreases that resulted for some subbasins in the Assabet River Basin. Only two subbasins of the Upper Charles River Basin had projected decreases greater than 5 percent. In the Mill River subbasin, the decrease was 11 percent, and in the Mine Brook subbasin, 6.6 percent. Changes in water use and wastewater return flow generally were found to have the greatest effect in the summer months when streamflow and aquifer recharge rates are low and water use is high. September increases in main-stem streamflow of both basins were due mainly to increased discharge of treated effluent from wastewater-treatment facilities on the main-stem rivers. In the Assabet River Basin, wastewater-treatment-facility discharge became a smaller proportion of total streamflow with distance downstream. In contrast, wastewater-treatment facility discharge in the Upper Charles River Basin became a greater proportion of streamflow with distance downstream. The effects of sewer-line extension and low-impact development on streamflows in two different subbasins of the Assabet River Basin also were simulated. The result of extending sewer lines with a corresponding decrease in septic-system return flow caused September streamflows to decrease as much as 15 percent in the Fort Pond Brook subbasin. The effect of low-impact development was simulated in the Hop Brook subbasin in areas projected for commercial development. In this simulation, the greater the area where low-i

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water-Quality and Biological Characteristics and Responses to Agricultural Land Retirement in Three Streams of the Minnesota River Basin, Water Years 2006-08

Water-quality and biological characteristics in three streams in the Minnesota River Basin were assessed using data collected during water years 2006-08. The responses of nutrient concentrations, suspended-sediment concentrations, and biological characteristics to agricultural land retirement also were assessed. In general, total nitrogen, suspended-sediment, and chlorophyll-a concentrations, and fish resource quality improved with increasing land retirement. The Chetomba Creek, West Fork Beaver Creek, and South Branch Rush River subbasins, which range in size from about 200 to 400 square kilometers, have similar geologic and hydrologic settings but differ with respect to the amount, type, and location of retired agricultural land. Total nitrogen concentrations were largest, with a mean of 15.0 milligrams per liter (mg/L), in water samples from the South Branch Rush River, a subbasin with little to no agricultural land retirement; total nitrogen concentrations were smaller in samples from Chetomba Creek (mean of 10.6 mg/L) and West Fork Beaver Creek (mean of 7.9 mg/L), which are subbasins with more riparian or upland land retirement at the basin scale. Total phosphorus concentrations were not related directly to differing land-retirement percentages with mean concentrations at primary data-collection sites of 0.259 mg/L in the West Fork Beaver Creek subbasin, 0.164 mg/L in the Chetomba Creek subbasin, and 0.180 mg/L in the South Branch Rush River subbasin. Temporal variation in water quality was characterized using data from in-stream water-quality monitors and storm-sediment data. Fish data indicate better resource quality for the West Fork Beaver Creek subbasin than for other subbasins likely due to a combination of factors, including habitat quality, food resources, and dissolved oxygen characteristics. Index of biotic integrity (IBI) scores increased as local land-retirement percentages (within 50 and 100 meters of the streams) increased. Data and analysis from this study can be used to evaluate the success of agricultural management practices and land-retirement programs for improving stream quality.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Land subsidence, groundwater levels, and geology in the Coachella Valley, California, 1993-2010

Land subsidence associated with groundwater-level declines has been investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Coachella Valley, California, since 1996. Groundwater has been a major source of agricultural, municipal, and domestic supply in the valley since the early 1920s. Pumping of groundwater resulted in water-level declines as much as 15 meters (50 feet) through the late 1940s. In 1949, the importation of Colorado River water to the southern Coachella Valley began, resulting in a reduction in groundwater pumping and a recovery of water levels during the 1950s through the 1970s. Since the late 1970s, demand for water in the valley has exceeded deliveries of imported surface water, resulting in increased pumping and associated groundwater-level declines and, consequently, an increase in the potential for land subsidence caused by aquifer-system compaction. Global Positioning System (GPS) surveying and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) methods were used to determine the location, extent, and magnitude of the vertical land-surface changes in the southern Coachella Valley during 1993–2010. The GPS measurements taken at 11 geodetic monuments in 1996 and in 2010 in the southern Coachella Valley indicated that the elevation of the land surface changed –136 to –23 millimeters (mm) ±54 mm (–0.45 to –0.08 feet (ft) ±0.18 ft) during the 14-year period. Changes at 6 of the 11 monuments exceeded the maximum expected uncertainty of ±54 mm (±0.18 ft) at the 95-percent confidence level, indicating that subsidence occurred at these monuments between June 1996 and August 2010. GPS measurements taken at 17 geodetic monuments in 2005 and 2010 indicated that the elevation of the land surface changed –256 to +16 mm ±28 mm (–0.84 to +0.05 ft ±0.09 ft) during the 5-year period. Changes at 5 of the 17 monuments exceeded the maximum expected uncertainty of ±28 mm (±0.09 ft) at the 95-percent confidence level, indicating that subsidence occurred at these monuments between August 2005 and August 2010. At each of these five monuments, subsidence rates were about the same between 2005 and 2010 as between 2000 and 2005. InSAR measurements taken between June 27, 1995, and September 19, 2010, indicated that the land surface subsided from about 220 to 600 mm (0.72 to 1.97 ft) in three areas of the Coachella Valley: near Palm Desert, Indian Wells, and La Quinta. In Palm Desert, the average subsidence rates increased from about 39 millimeters per year (mm/yr), or 0.13 foot per year (ft/yr), during 1995–2000 to about 45 mm/yr (0.15 ft/yr) during 2003–10. In Indian Wells, average subsidence rates for two subsidence maxima were fairly steady at about 34 and 26 mm/yr (0.11 and 0.09 ft/yr) during both periods; for the third maxima, average subsidence rates increased from about 14 to 19 mm/yr (0.05 to 0.06 ft/yr) from the first to the second period. In La Quinta, average subsidence rates for five selected locations ranged from about 17 to 37 mm/yr (0.06 to 0.12 ft/yr) during 1995–2000; three of the locations had similar rates during 2003–mid-2009, while the other two locations had increased subsidence rates. Decreased subsidence rates were calculated throughout the La Quinta subsidence area during mid-2009–10, however, and uplift was observed during 2010 near the southern extent of this area. Water-level measurements taken at wells near the subsiding monuments and in the three subsiding areas shown by InSAR generally indicated that the water levels fluctuated seasonally and declined annually from the early 1990s, or earlier, to 2010; some water levels in 2010 were at the lowest levels in their recorded histories. An exception to annually declining water levels in and near subsiding areas was observed beginning in mid-2009 in the La Quinta subsidence area, where recovering water levels coincided with increased recharge operations at the Thomas E. Levy Recharge Facility; decreased pumpage also could cause groundwater levels to recover. Subsidence concomitant with declining water levels and land-surface uplift concomitant with recovering water levels indicate that aquifer-system compaction could be causing subsidence. If the stresses imposed by the historically lowest water levels exceeded the preconsolidation stress, the aquifer-system compaction and associated land subsidence could be permanent.

California↗

Compilation and assessment of resource values and hazards to inform transportation planning and associated land-use planning

Land-use planning has an important role in local, regional, State, and Federal land management, and planning efforts can benefit from consistent, spatially explicit information that can help guide priorities and decisions. The credibility and relevance of information used to inform planning activities depends on the availability of consistent information about the resources and values of interest or concern within the planning area. To support long-range transportation planning and other regional land-use planning efforts, the U.S. Geological Survey gathered, processed, interpreted, and compiled spatial datasets representing a wide range of information on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem condition and importance, cultural (historical) features and places, and natural hazards. This report describes the spatial data compiled to represent natural landscape conditions (including social, cultural, and natural attributes) to estimate the potential importance of lands for wildlife, wild habitats, recreation, and conservation based on abundance of species, habitats, land and water conditions, and conservation designations. Abundance of resources, including the potential number of species, presence of important habitats and protected areas, and proximity to particular features or habitats, indicates the potential sensitivity of the natural landscape to land use, especially transportation networks. The source data, derived indices, and the methods for processing these data are described in this final report. The datasets referenced in the report are available from the U.S. Geological Survey ( https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/ and https://doi.org/10.5066/F7MW2F8W ) or the Central Federal Lands Highway Division of the Office of Federal Lands Highway ( https://flh.fhwa.dot.gov ).

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Ground-Water Quality and its Relation to Land Use on Oahu, Hawaii, 2000-01

Water quality in the main drinking-water source aquifers of Oahu was assessed by a one-time sampling of untreated ground water from 30 public-supply wells and 15 monitoring wells. The 384 square-mile study area, which includes urban Honolulu and large tracts of forested, agricultural, and suburban residential lands in central Oahu, accounts for 93 percent of the island's ground-water withdrawals. Organic compounds were detected in 73 percent of public-supply wells, but mostly at low concentrations below minimum reporting levels. Concentrations exceeded drinking-water standards in just a few cases: the solvent trichloroethene and the radionuclide radon-222 exceeded Federal standards in one public-supply well each, and the fumigants 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP) and 1,2,3-trichloropropane (TCP) exceeded State standards in three public-supply wells each. Solvents, fumigants, trihalomethanes, and herbicides were prevalent (detected in more than 30 percent of samples) but gasoline components and insecticides were detected in few wells. Most water samples contained complex mixtures of organic compounds: multiple solvents, fumigants, or herbicides, and in some cases compounds from two or all three of these classes. Characteristic suites of chemicals were associated with particular land uses and geographic locales. Solvents were associated with central Oahu urban-military lands whereas fumigants, herbicides, and fertilizer nutrients were associated with central Oahu agricultural lands. Somewhat unexpectedly, little contamination was detected in Honolulu where urban density is highest, most likely as a consequence of sound land-use planning, favorable aquifer structure, and less intensive application of chemicals (or of less mobile chemicals) over recharge zones in comparison to agricultural areas. For the most part, organic and nutrient contamination appear to reflect decades-old releases and former land use. Most ground-water ages were decades old, with recharge dates ranging from pre-1940 to the present, and with most dates falling within the 1950s to 1980s time span. Several widely detected compounds were discontinued as long ago as the 1970s but have yet to be flushed from the ground-water system. Although large tracts of land in central Oahu have been converted from agriculture to residential urban use since the 1950s, water quality in the converted areas still more closely reflects the former agricultural land. It appears to be too early to detect a distinct water-quality signature characteristic of the newer urban use, although several urban turfgrass herbicides in use for just 10 years or so were detected in monitoring wells and may represent early arrivals of urban contaminants at the water table.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Effects of land-management practices on sediment yields in northeastern Guilford County, North Carolina

Streamflow, precipitation, and suspended-sediment data were collected from two small agricultural basins in the Piedmont province of North Carolina. The data were used to determine the effects of land-management practices on sediment yield. One basin of 7.4 acres represents best land-management practices with strip cropping, crop rotation, contour farming, and grassed waterways. The other basin of 4.8 acres represents standard land-management practices with down-slope row orientation, unmaintained grassed waterways, and without crop rotation. Data collected during the 1985-87 water years were used to develop regression equations to describe the relation between suspended-sediment discharge and water discharge. Data sets consisting of suspended-sediment concentrations and corresponding instantaneous water-discharge data were developed. There were two data sets from each basin, one representing data collected during the growing season, May through September, and the other representing data collected during the nongrowing season, October through April. Four regression equations were developed, one for each data set, and were tested for goodness-of-fit by use of graphical analysis, influence diagnostics, significance tests, and residuals analysis. Following acceptance of the four equations, the slope of each individual line was tested to determine if season was a significant variable. Seasonally, the average sediment yields (2.7 tons per acre) from the basin having best land-management practices were only about one-seventh of those (20 tons per acre) from the basin having standard land-management practices. Comparison of annual sediment yields in the agricultural basins against the yield from a nearby forested basin, which represents a nearly undisturbed basin, indicates a 10- to 100-fold increase in sediment yields from the study basins. The forested basin sediment yield was 0.1 ton per acre in the 1987 water year. Sheet erosion, which represents soil moving from high areas to low areas in a basin but not necessarily reaching a stream, is also influenced by land-management practices. This type of erosion was estimated to be 3.6 tons per acre per year for the basin with best land-management practices and 45 tons per acre per year for the basin with standard land-management practices.

North Carolina↗

Ground-water quality and its relation to hydrogeology, land use, and surface-water quality in the Red Clay Creek basin, Piedmont Physiographic Province, Pennsylvania and Delaware

The Red Clay Creek Basin in the Piedmont Physiographic Province of Pennsylvania and Delaware is a 54-square-mile area underlain by a structurally complex assemblage of fractured metamorphosed sedimentary and igneous rocks that form a water-table aquifer. Ground-water-flow systems generally are local, and ground water discharges to streams. Both ground water and surface water in the basin are used for drinking-water supply. Ground-water quality and the relation between ground-water quality and hydrogeologic and land-use factors were assessed in 1993 in bedrock aquifers of the basin. A total of 82 wells were sampled from July to November 1993 using a stratified random sampling scheme that included 8 hydrogeologic and 4 land-use categories to distribute the samples evenly over the area of the basin. The eight hydrogeologic units were determined by formation or lithology. The land-use categories were (1) forested, open, and undeveloped; (2) agricultural; (3) residential; and (4) industrial and commercial. Well-water samples were analyzed for major and minor ions, nutrients, volatile organic compounds (VOC's), pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyl compounds (PCB's), and radon-222. Concentrations of some constituents exceeded maximum contaminant levels (MCL) or secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCL) established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water. Concentrations of nitrate were greater than the MCL of 10 mg/L (milligrams per liter) as nitrogen (N) in water from 11 (13 percent) of 82 wells sampled; the maximum concentration was 38 mg/L as N. Water from only 1 of 82 wells sampled contained VOC's or pesticides that exceeded a MCL; water from that well contained 3 mg/L chlordane and 1 mg/L of PCB's. Constituents or properties of well-water samples that exceeded SMCL's included iron, manganese, dissolved solids, pH, and corrosivity. Water from 70 (85 percent) of the 82 wells sampled contained radon-222 activities greater than the proposed MCL of 300 pCi/L (picoCuries per liter). Differences in selected major and minor ion concentrations and radon-222 activities were statistically significant between some lithologies and are related to differences in mineralogy. Ground water from felsic gneiss and schist generally contained higher radon-222 activities than the other lithologies; activities as high as 10,000 pCi/L were measured in a water sample from the felsic gneiss. Differences in the concentrations of nitrate, sodium, and chloride, and the frequency of pesticide detections in ground water were statistically significant between samples from wells in some land-use categories. Concentrations of nitrate generally were greatest in agricultural and in industrial and commercial areas and can be attributed to the use of fertilizers on the land surface and other agricultural activities. Much of the industrial and commercial land use is in areas previously used for or related to mushroom production. Concentrations of chloride and sodium also were greatest in water from wells in agricultural and industrial and commercial areas, probably because of the use of fertilizer and road salt. Concentrations of nitrate, chloride, and sodium in water samples from wells in forested and residential land use did not differ statistically significantly from each other. The herbicides metolachlor and atrazine were the most frequently detected pesticides and were detected more frequently in agricultural areas than in areas with other land uses; their presence is related to their use in crop production. VOC's were detected infrequently and only in residential and industrial and commercial areas. The relation between ground-water quality and surface-water quality is assessed by comparing nitrate and chloride concentrations in the 1993 ground-water samples and 1993-94 base-flow samples. Base-flow samples were collected at eight stream sites in the headwaters of the West Branch of Red Clay Creek in 1994 and at two long-term stream-monitoing sites on the East and West Branches of the Red Clay Creek in 1993-94. The average concentrations of chloride and nitrate in ground-water samples from wells in areas above the headwater stream sites and two long-term stream-monitoring sites were similar to the concentrations of chloride and nitrate in base flow at those sites. An observed increase in nitrate concentration in base flow at the long-term monitoring site on the West Branch of Red Clay Creek from 1970 to 1995 may be related to an increase in nitrate concentrations in ground water in that area of the basin.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Relation of arsenic, iron, and manganese in ground water to aquifer type, bedrock lithogeochemistry, and land use in the New England coastal basins

In a study of arsenic concentrations in public-supply wells in the New England Coastal Basins, concentrations at or above 0.005 mg/L (milligrams per liter) were detected in more samples of water from wells completed in bedrock (25 percent of all samples) than in water from wells completed in stratified drift (7.5 percent of all samples). Iron and manganese were detected (at concentrations of 0.05 and 0.03 mg/L, respectively) at approximately the same frequency in water from wells in both types of aquifers. Concentrations of arsenic in public-supply wells drilled in bedrock (in the National Water-Quality Assessment Program New England Coastal Basins study unit) vary with the bedrock lithology. Broad groups of lithogeochemical units generalized from bedrock lithologic units shown on state geologic maps were used in the statistical analyses. Concentrations of arsenic in water from public-supply wells in metasedimentary bedrock units that contain slightly to moderately calcareous and calcsilicate rocks (lithogeochemical group M c ) were significantly higher than the concentrations in five other groups of bedrock units in the study unit. Arsenic was detected, at or above 0.005 mg/L, in water from 44 percent of the wells in the lithogeochemical group M c and in water from less than 28 percent of wells in the five other groups. Additionally, arsenic concentrations in ground water were the lowest in the metasedimentary rocks that are characterized as variably sulfidic (group M s ). Generally, concentrations of arsenic were low in water from bedrock wells in the felsic igneous rocks (group I f ) though locally some bedrock wells in granitic rocks are known to have ground water with high arsenic concentrations, especially in New Hampshire. The concentrations of arsenic in ground water also correlate with land-use data; significantly higher concentrations are found in areas identified as agricultural land use than in undeveloped areas. There is, however, more agricultural land in areas overlying the metasedimentary rocks of lithogeochemical groups M c and the minimally-deformed clastic sediments of group M md than in areas overlying other lithogeochemical groups. This correlation complicates the interpretation of sources of arsenic to ground water in bedrock. A test of this association revealed that relations between arsenic concentrations and the metasedimentary rocks of group M c are not weakened when data associated with agricultural land use is removed; the reverse is true, however, if the data associated with the group M c are removed from the analysis. The occurrence and variability of arsenic in water from bedrock supply wells could be related to several factors. These include (1) the distribution and chemical form of arsenic in soils and rocks that are part of the ground-water-flow system, (2) the characteristics that influence the solubility and transport of arsenic in ground water, (3) the differing degrees of vulnerability of ground-water supplies to surface contamination, and (4) the spatial associations between land use, geology, and ground-water-flow patterns. Strong relations between agricultural land use and the metasedimentary rocks of group M c complicate the interpretation of arsenic source to water in these bedrock aquifers. This is due in part to the past use of arsenical pesticides; additionally, few whole-rock geochemical data are available for the rock types in the lithogeochemical groups of aquifers that contain ground water with elevated concentrations of arsenic. Without such data, identifying specific bedrock types as arsenic sources is not possible. In southern Maine and south-central New Hampshire, and in northern Massachusetts, the few available whole-rock analyses suggest, at least for these local areas, a connection between known bedrock chemistry and ground-water arsenic levels. Although the lithogeochemical group and land-use category variables individually describe much of the variance in the concentrations of arsenic in ground water, the lithogeochemical relation is statistically stronger than the land-use relation. Low concentrations of arsenic in water from bedrock public-supply wells are associated with the metasedimentary rocks of group M s (characterized as variably sulfidic). This association could reflect a variety of factors and suggests that simple dissolution of arsenic-bearing iron phases, such as sulfides, may not explain concentrations of arsenic in water in this bedrock aquifer group. Whole-rock geochemical data and more complete water-chemistry data, as well as studies of historical variation of arsenic concentrations (time-line studies), and site-specific studies, will be critical in addressing the arsenic source issue.

New England coastal basins↗

Collar temperature sensor data reveal long-term patterns in southern Beaufort Sea polar bear den distribution on pack ice and land

In response to a changing climate, many species alter habitat use. Polar bears Ursus maritimus in the southern Beaufort Sea have increasingly used land for maternal denning. To aid in detecting denning behavior, we developed an objective method to identify polar bear denning events using temperature sensor data collected by satellite-linked transmitters deployed on adult females between 1985 and 2013. We then applied this method to determine whether southern Beaufort Sea polar bears have continued to increase land denning with recent sea-ice loss and examined whether sea-ice conditions affect the distribution of dens between pack-ice and coastal substrates. Because land use in summer and autumn has also increased, we examined potential associations between summering substrate and denning substrate. Statistical process control methods applied to temperature-sensor data identified denning events with 94.5% accuracy in comparison to direct observations (n = 73) and 95.7% accuracy relative to subjective classifications based on temperature, location, and activity sensor data (n = 116). We found an increase in land-based denning during the study period. The frequency of land denning was directly related to the distance that sea ice retreated from the coast. Among females that denned, all 14 that summered on land subsequently denned there, whereas 29% of the 69 bears summering on ice denned on land. These results suggest that denning on land may continue to increase with further loss of sea ice. While the effects that den substrate have on nutrition, energetics, and reproduction are unclear, more polar bears denning onshore will likely increase human-bear interactions.

Alaska↗

Groundwater sustainability and land subsidence in California’s Central Valley

The Central Valley of California is one of the most prolific agricultural regions in the world. Agriculture is reliant on the conjunctive use of surface-water and groundwater. The lack of available surface-water and land-use changes have led to pumping-induced groundwater-level and storage declines, land subsidence, changes to streamflow and the environment, and the degradation of water quality. As a result, in part, the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) was developed. An examination of the components of SGMA and contextualizing regional model applications within the SGMA framework was undertaken to better understand and quantify many of the components of SGMA. Specifically, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) updated the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) to assess hydrologic system responses to climatic variation, surface-water availability, land-use changes, and groundwater pumping. MODFLOW-OWHM has been enhanced to simulate the timing of land subsidence and attribute its inelastic and elastic portions. In addition to extending CVHM through 2019, the new version, CVHM2, includes several enhancements as follows: managed aquifer recharge (MAR), pumping with multi-aquifer wells, inflows from ungauged watersheds, and more detailed water-balance subregions, streamflow network, diversions, tile drains, land use, aquifer properties, and groundwater level and land subsidence observations. Combined with historical approximations, CVHM2 estimates approximately 158 km 3 of storage loss in the Central Valley from pre-development to 2019. About 15% of the total storage loss is permanent loss of storage from subsidence that has caused damage to infrastructure. Climate extremes will likely complicate the efforts of water managers to store more water in the ground. CVHM2 can provide data in the form of aggregated input datasets, simulate climatic variations and changes, land-use changes or water management scenarios, and resulting changes in groundwater levels, storage, and land subsidence to assist decision-makers in the conjunctive management of water supplies.

California↗

Land subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, 2007-14

Rapid land subsidence was recently measured using multiple methods in two areas of the San Joaquin Valley (SJV): between Merced and Fresno (El Nido), and between Fresno and Bakersfield (Pixley). Recent land-use changes and diminished surface-water availability have led to increased groundwater pumping, groundwater-level declines, and land subsidence. Differential land subsidence has reduced the flow capacity of water-conveyance systems in these areas, exacerbating flood hazards and affecting the delivery of irrigation water. Vertical land-surface changes during 2007–2014 were determined by using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS), and extensometer data. Results of the InSAR analysis indicate that about 7600 km 2 subsided 50–540 mm during 2008–2010; CGPS and extensometer data indicate that these rates continued or accelerated through December 2014. The maximum InSAR-measured rate of 270 mm yr −1 occurred in the El Nido area, and is among the largest rates ever measured in the SJV. In the Pixley area, the maximum InSAR-measured rate during 2008–2010 was 90 mm yr −1 . Groundwater was an important part of the water supply in both areas, and pumping increased when land use changed or when surface water was less available. This increased pumping caused groundwater-level declines to near or below historical lows during the drought periods 2007–2009 and 2012–present. Long-term groundwater-level and land-subsidence monitoring in the SJV is critical for understanding the interconnection of land use, groundwater levels, and subsidence, and evaluating management strategies that help mitigate subsidence hazards to infrastructure while optimizing water supplies.

California↗

Trade-offs in adapting to changes in climate, land use, and water availability in California

Changes in land use and land cover, water systems, and climate are inextricably linked, and their combined stresses have had severe impacts in many regions worldwide. Integrated adaptation planning can support adaptive capacity by helping institutions manage land and water resources at regional to local scales. Linkages between these stressors mean that planners are often faced with potential trade-offs, and how to couple social and environmental sustainability remains a key question. We explore these questions in California’s Central Coast, a region that is already experiencing serious water shortages, housing shortages, rapid expansion of perennial agriculture, and severe droughts that are projected to become worse with climate change. Linked models of land use change (the Land Use and Carbon + Water Simulator [LUCAS-W]), water resources (LUCAS-W), and climate (the Basin Characterization Model [BCM]) produced forecasts of exposure to regional changes at 270-m resolution. We worked with regional stakeholders to develop a matrix of nine vulnerability measures that assessed key sensitivities to these changes. Each vulnerability measure combined one of the three exposure projections with spatial datasets representing one of three sensitivity communities (agricultural, domestic, or ecological). We assessed how five scenarios of land-use and water management strategies under consideration by regional planners could provide institutional, top-down adaptive capacity, and whether there were trade-offs in sustainable development goals for these communities. We found that specific land and water management strategies could greatly reduce regional vulnerability, particularly programs to cap water extractions to sustainable levels. The most dramatic trade-off was between the strategy of water demand caps that increased risk of habitat loss and ecosystem preservation that increased water vulnerability. However, trade-offs were usually limited and spatially localized, suggesting local tailoring of the strategies we assessed could reduce them. Trade-offs were more frequent across exposure classes (land use vs. water vs. climate changes) rather than sensitivity classes (agricultural vs. domestic vs. ecological communities), suggesting win-win opportunities for natural resource management. Our vulnerability maps can inform prioritization efforts for local adaptation planning.

California↗

Hydrogeomorphic features mediate the effects of land use/cover on reservoir productivity and food webs

Although effects of land use/cover on nutrient concentrations in aquatic systems are well known, half or more of the variation in nutrient concentration remains unexplained by land use/cover alone. Hydrogeomorphic (HGM) landscape features can explain much remaining variation and influence food web interactions. To explore complex linkages among land use/cover, HGM features, reservoir productivity, and food webs, we sampled 11 Ohio reservoirs, ranging broadly in agricultural catchment land use/cover, for 3 years. We hypothesized that HGM features mediate the bottom-up effects of land use/cover on reservoir productivity, chlorophyll a , zooplankton, and recruitment of gizzard shad, an omnivorous fish species common throughout southeastern U.S. reservoirs and capable of exerting strong effects on food web and nutrient dynamics. We tested specific hypotheses using a model selection approach. Percent variation explained was highest for total nitrogen ( R 2 = 0.92), moderately high for total phosphorus, chlorophyll a , and rotifer biomass ( R 2 = 0.57 to 0.67), relatively low for crustacean zooplankton biomass and larval gizzard shad hatch abundance ( R 2 = 0.43 and 0.42), and high for larval gizzard shad survivor abundance ( R 2 = 0.79). The trophic status models included agricultural land use/cover and an HGM predictor, whereas the zooplankton models had few HGM predictors. The larval gizzard shad models had the highest complexity, including more than one HGM feature and food web components. We demonstrate the importance of integrating land use/cover, HGM features, and food web interactions to investigate critical interactions and feedbacks among physical, chemical, and biological components of linked land-water ecosystems.

Limnology and Oceanography↗

Land use statistics for West Virginia, Part I

The West Virginia Geological and Economic Survey and the United States Geological Survey have completed a cooperative program to provide land-use and land-cover maps and data for the State. This program begins to satisfy a longstanding need for a consistent level of detail, standardization in categorization, and scale of compilation for land-use and land-cover maps and data. The statistical information contained in this Bulletin provides land-use acreage tabulations for the first 20 counties that have been completed. Statistics are being compiled for the remaining counties and will be published shortly. This information has been derived from the recently completed Land-Use Map of West Virginia (on open file at the West Virginia Geological and Economic Survey - Environmental Section). In addition to land-use acreage, we have also included land-use percent. All statistics throughout this Bulletin are in the same format for ease of comparison.

West Virginia↗