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Location, timing and extent of wildfire vary by cause of ignition

The increasing extent of wildfires has prompted investigation into alternative fire management approaches to complement the traditional strategies of fire suppression and fuels manipulation. Wildfire prevention through ignition reduction is an approach with potential for success, but ignitions result from a variety of causes. If some ignition sources result in higher levels of area burned, then ignition prevention programmes could be optimised to target these distributions in space and time. We investigated the most common ignition causes in two southern California sub-regions, where humans are responsible for more than 95% of all fires, and asked whether these causes exhibited distinct spatial or intra-annual temporal patterns, or resulted in different extents of fire in 10-29-year periods, depending on sub-region. Different ignition causes had distinct spatial patterns and those that burned the most area tended to occur in autumn months. Both the number of fires and area burned varied according to cause of ignition, but the cause of the most numerous fires was not always the cause of the greatest area burned. In both sub-regions, power line ignitions were one of the top two causes of area burned: the other major causes were arson in one sub-region and power equipment in the other. Equipment use also caused the largest number of fires in both sub-regions. These results have important implications for understanding why, where and how ignitions are caused, and in turn, how to develop strategies to prioritise and focus fire prevention efforts. Fire extent has increased tremendously in southern California, and because most fires are caused by humans, ignition reduction offers a potentially powerful management strategy, especially if optimised to reflect the distinct spatial and temporal distributions in different ignition causes.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

Different historical fire–climate patterns in California

The relationship between annual variation in area burned and seasonal temperatures and precipitation was investigated for the major climate divisions in California. Historical analyses showed marked differences in fires on montane and foothill landscapes. Based on roughly a century of data, there are five important lessons on fire–climate relationships in California: (1) seasonal variations in temperature appear to have had minimal influence on area burned in the lower elevation, mostly non-forested, landscapes; (2) temperature has been a significant factor in controlling fire activity in higher elevation montane forests, but this varied greatly with season – winter and autumn temperatures showed no significant effect, whereas spring and summer temperatures were important determinants of area burned; (3) current season precipitation has been a strong controller of fire activity in forests, with drier years resulting in greater area burned on most United States Forest Service (USFS) lands in the state, but the effect of current-year precipitation was decidedly less on lower elevation California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection lands; (4) in largely grass-dominated foothills and valleys the magnitude of prior-year rainfall was positively tied to area burned in the following year, and we hypothesise that this is tied to greater fuel volume in the year following high rainfall. In the southern part of the state this effect has become stronger in recent decades and this likely is due to accelerated type conversion from shrubland to grassland in the latter part of the 20th century; (5) the strongest fire–climate models were on USFS lands in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and these explained 42–52% of the variation in area burned; however, the models changed over time, with winter and spring precipitation being the primary drivers in the first half of the 20th century, but replaced by spring and summer temperatures after 1960.

California↗

Distinguishing disturbance from perturbations in fire-prone ecosystems

Fire is a necessary ecosystem process in many biomes and is best viewed as a natural disturbance that is beneficial to ecosystem functioning. However, increasingly we are seeing human interference in fire regimes that alter the historical range of variability for most fire parameters and result in vegetation shifts. Such perturbations can affect all fire regime parameters. Here we provide a brief overview of examples where anthropogenically driven changes in fire frequency, fire pattern, fuels consumed and fire intensity constitute perturbations that greatly disrupt natural disturbance cycles. These changes are not due to fire per se but rather anthropogenic perturbations in the natural disturbance regime.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

Evaluating a simulation-based wildfire burn probability map for the conterminous US

Background Wildfire simulation models are used to derive maps of burn probability (BP) based on fuels, weather, topography and ignition locations, and BP maps are key components of wildfire risk assessments. Aims Few studies have compared BP maps with real-world fires to evaluate their suitability for near-future risk assessment. Here, we evaluated a BP map for the conterminous US based on the large fire simulation model FSim. Methods We compared BP with observed wildfires from 2016 to 2022 across 128 regions representing similar fire regimes (‘pyromes’). We evaluated the distribution of burned areas across BP values, and compared burned area distributions among fire size classes. Key results Across all pyromes, mean BP was moderately correlated with observed burned area. An average of 71% of burned area occurred in higher-BP classes, vs 79% expected. BP underpredicted burned area in the Mountain West, especially for extremely large fires. Conclusions The FSim BP map was useful for estimating subsequent wildfire hazard, but may have underestimated burned areas where input data did not reflect recent climate change, vegetation change or human ignition patterns. Implications Our evaluations indicate that caution is needed when relying on simulation-based BP maps to inform management decisions. Our results also highlight potential opportunities to improve model estimates.

Conterminous United States↗

Before the fire: Predicting burn severity and potential post-fire debris-flow hazards to Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus) conservation populations

Background Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus ) conservation populations may be at risk from wildfire and post-fire debris flows hazards. Aim To predict burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow hazard classifications to CRCT conservation populations before wildfires occur. Methods We used remote sensing, spatial analyses, and machine learning to model 28 wildfire incidents (2016–2020) and spatially predict burn severity from pre-wildfire environmental factors to evaluate the likelihood (%) and volume (m 3 ) hazard classification of post-fire debris flow. Key results Burn severity was best predicted by fuels, followed by topography, physical ecosystem conditions, and weather (mean adjusted R 2 = 0.54). Predictions of high or moderate burn severity covered 1.1 (15% of study area) and 1.5 (19% of study area) million ha, respectively, and varied by watershed. Combined high or moderate debris flow hazard classification included 80% of stream reaches with conservation populations and 97% of conservation population point nodes. Conclusions Predicted burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow indicated moderate to high hazard for CRCT conservation populations native to the Green and Yampa rivers of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Implications Future management actions can incorporate predicted burn severity and potential post-fire debris flow to mitigate impacts to CRCT and other at-risk resource values before a wildfire occurs.

Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

Modelling and mapping burn severity of prescribed and wildfires across the southeastern United States (2000-2022)

Background The southeastern United States (‘Southeast’) experiences high levels of fire activity, but the preponderance of small and prescribed fires means that existing burn severity products are incomplete across the region. Aims We developed and applied a burn severity model across the Southeast to enhance our understanding of regional burn severity patterns. Methods We used Composite Burn Index (CBI) plot data from across the conterminous US (CONUS) to train a gradient-boosted decision tree model. The model was optimised for the Southeast and applied to the annual Landsat Burned Area product for 2000–2022 across the region. Key results The burn severity model had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.48 ( R 2 = 0.70) and 0.50 ( R 2 = 0.37) for the CONUS and Southeast, respectively. The Southeast, relative to CONUS, had lower mean absolute residuals in low and moderate burn severity categories. Burn severity was consistently lower in areas affected by prescribed burns relative to wildfires. Conclusions Although regional performance was limited by a lack of high burn severity CBI plots, the burn severity dataset demonstrated patterns consistent with low-severity, frequent fire regimes characteristic of Southeastern ecosystems. Implications More complete data on burn severity will enhance regional management of fire-dependent ecosystems and improve estimates of fuels and fire emissions.

Southeastern United States↗

Variability and consistency in wildfire susceptibility: Insights from a national compilation

Background Wildfire risk in the United States is rising and remains a land management priority. The quantitative wildfire risk assessment (QWRA) framework integrates fuels, topography, weather and values at risk to estimate the potential change in value from wildfire. Within this, response functions (RFs) represent how values respond to fire intensity. These are often based on expert judgment, but variation across assessments is unclear. Aims This study uses data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse to characterize consistency and variation across categories and contexts. Methods We applied descriptive statistics to summarize RFs, using tables, box-and-whisker plots and heat maps stratified by highly valued resource or asset (HVRA) category and spatial scale. Key results RFs and value definitions vary, especially for ecosystem-related resources. Some functions, such as for buildings in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), translate well across contexts, while others require more input. Conclusions Some functions are broadly transferable, while others need customization. This analysis provides references and starting points for improvement to RFs in QWRAs. Interpretations Expanding the clearinghouse and dataset and building more transparency in expert elicitation can build trust among communities, agencies and end-users, and can support efficient use of limited resources to mitigate wildfire risk.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

China, the United States, and competition for resources that enable emerging technologies

Historically, resource conflicts have often centered on fuel minerals (particularly oil). Future resource conflicts may, however, focus more on competition for nonfuel minerals that enable emerging technologies. Whether it is rhenium in jet engines, indium in flat panel displays, or gallium in smart phones, obscure elements empower smarter, smaller, and faster technologies, and nations seek stable supplies of these and other nonfuel minerals for their industries. No nation has all of the resources it needs domestically. International trade may lead to international competition for these resources if supplies are deemed at risk or insufficient to satisfy growing demand, especially for minerals used in technologies important to economic development and national security. Here, we compare the net import reliance of China and the United States to inform mineral resource competition and foreign supply risk. Our analysis indicates that China relies on imports for over half of its consumption for 19 of 42 nonfuel minerals, compared with 24 for the United States—11 of which are common to both. It is for these 11 nonfuel minerals that competition between the United States and China may become the most contentious, especially for those with highly concentrated production that prove irreplaceable in pivotal emerging technologies.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Rising rates of wildfire building destruction in the conterminous United States

Many regions of the world have seen an increase in highly destructive wildfires, driven by well-documented increases in burned area and growth of housing in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), which exposes more homes to fire. However, it is unclear whether wildfires are also becoming more destructive due to changes in wildfire behavior or in the development patterns of exposed communities. Here, we assessed trends in wildfire building exposure and destruction rates in the conterminous United States from 2002 to 2022. We mapped destroyed and surviving buildings within 100 m of all wildfires that destroyed 10 or more buildings (n = 362) and assessed trends relative to major ecoregions and vegetation types. We used logistic regression to assess relationships between destruction rates and landscape factors. We found that 10% of exposed buildings were destroyed in 2002–2012, but this percentage increased to 32% in 2013–2022. This increase was largely due to greater building exposure in evergreen forests in the northwestern United States, where exposed buildings were more than 3.4 times as likely to be destroyed as those in grass and shrublands. However, annual destruction rates also significantly increased in all other vegetation types and were correlated with development type, weather, and burn severity. These results indicate that increasing wildfire destruction in the United States has resulted not only from increased exposure but from rising rates of building destruction, potentially indicating more extreme wildfire behavior. This finding underscores the need to better understand how fuel management, community planning, and hardening buildings can reduce vulnerability.

conterminous United States↗

Health impacts of domestic coal use in China

Domestic coal combustion has had profound adverse effects on the health of millions of people worldwide. In China alone several hundred million people commonly burn raw coal in unvented stoves that permeate their homes with high levels of toxic metals and organic compounds. At least 3,000 people in Guizhou Province in southwest China are suffering from severe arsenic poisoning. The primary source of the arsenic appears to be consumption of chili peppers dried over fires fueled with high-arsenic coal. Coal samples in the region were found to contain up to 35,000 ppm arsenic. Chili peppers dried over high-arsenic coal fires adsorb 500 ppm arsenic on average. More than 10 million people in Guizhou Province and surrounding areas suffer from dental and skeletal fluorosis. The excess fluorine is caused by eating corn dried over burning briquettes made from high-fluorine coals and high-fluorine clay binders. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons formed during coal combustion are believed to cause or contribute to the high incidence of esophageal and lung cancers in parts of China. Domestic coal combustion also has caused selenium poisoning and possibly mercury poisoning. Better knowledge of coal quality parameters may help to reduce some of these health problems. For example, information on concentrations and distributions of potentially toxic elements in coal may help delineate areas of a coal deposit to be avoided. Information on the modes of occurrence of these elements and the textural relations of the minerals and macerals in coal may help predict the behavior of the potentially toxic components during coal combustion.

Conference Paper↗

Producing ammonium sulfate from flue gas desulfurization by-products

Emission control technologies using flue gas desulfurization (FGD) have been widely adopted by utilities burning high-sulfur fuels. However, these technologies require additional equipment, greater operating expenses, and increased costs for landfill disposal of the solid by-products produced. The financial burdens would be reduced if successful high-volume commercial applications of the FGD solid by-products were developed. In this study, the technical feasibility of producing ammonium sulfate from FGD residues by allowing it to react with ammonium carbonate in an aqueous solution was preliminarily assessed. Reaction temperatures of 60, 70, and 80??C and residence times of 4 and 6 hours were tested to determine the optimal conversion condition and final product evaluations. High yields (up to 83%) of ammonium sulfate with up to 99% purity were achieved under relatively mild conditions. The optimal conversion condition was observed at 60??C and a 4-hour residence time. The results of this study indicate the technical feasibility of producing ammonium sulfate fertilizer from an FGD by-product. Copyright ?? Taylor & Francis Inc.

Energy Sources↗

Crop classification modelling using remote sensing and environmental data in the Greater Platte River Basin, USA

With an ever expanding population, potential climate variability and an increasing demand for agriculture-based alternative fuels, accurate agricultural land-cover classification for specific crops and their spatial distributions are becoming critical to researchers, policymakers, land managers and farmers. It is important to ensure the sustainability of these and other land uses and to quantify the net impacts that certain management practices have on the environment. Although other quality crop classification products are often available, temporal and spatial coverage gaps can create complications for certain regional or time-specific applications. Our goal was to develop a model capable of classifying major crops in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) for the post-2000 era to supplement existing crop classification products. This study identifies annual spatial distributions and area totals of corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops across the GPRB from 2000 to 2009. We developed a regression tree classification model based on 2.5 million training data points derived from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) in relation to a variety of other relevant input environmental variables. The primary input variables included the weekly 250 m US Geological Survey Earth Observing System Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized differential vegetation index, average long-term growing season temperature, average long-term growing season precipitation and yearly start of growing season. An overall model accuracy rating of 78% was achieved for a test sample of roughly 215 000 independent points that were withheld from model training. Ten 250 m resolution annual crop classification maps were produced and evaluated for the GPRB region, one for each year from 2000 to 2009. In addition to the model accuracy assessment, our validation focused on spatial distribution and county-level crop area totals in comparison with the NASS CDL and county statistics from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Census of Agriculture. The results showed that our model produced crop classification maps that closely resembled the spatial distribution trends observed in the NASS CDL and exhibited a close linear agreement with county-by-county crop area totals from USDA census data ( R 2 = 0.90).

Greater Platte River Basin↗

Terrestrial–aquatic linkages in spring-fed and snowmelt-dominated streams

The importance of trophic linkages between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems is predicted to vary as a function of subsidy quantity and quality relative to in situ resources. To test this prediction, I used multi-year diet data from Bonneville cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki Utah in spring-fed and snowmelt-driven streams in the high desert of western North America. I documented that trout in spring-fed streams consumed more (number and weight) aquatic than terrestrial invertebrates, while trout in snowmelt-driven streams consumed a similar number of both prey types but consumed more terrestrial than aquatic invertebrates by weight. Trout in spring-fed streams consumed more aquatic invertebrates than trout in snowmelt streams and trout consumed more terrestrial invertebrates in snowmelt than in spring-fed streams. Up to 93% of trout production in spring-fed streams and 60% in snowmelt streams was fueled by aquatic invertebrates, while the remainder of trout production in each stream type was from terrestrial production. I found that the biomass and occurrence of consumed terrestrial invertebrates were not related to our measures of in situ resource quality or quantity in either stream type. These empirical data highlight the importance of autotrophic-derived production to trout in xeric regions.

Idaho↗

Prescribed-fire effects on an aquatic community of a southwest montane grassland system

The use of prescription fire has long been recognized as a reliable management tool to suppress vegetative succession processes and to reduce fuel loading to prevent catastrophic wildfires, but very little attention has been paid to the effects on aquatic systems. A late-fall prescribed burn was implemented to characterize effects on an aquatic community within a montane grassland system in north-central New Mexico. The fire treatment was consistent with protocols of a managed burn except that the fire was allowed to burn through the riparian area to the treatment stream to replicate natural fire behavior. In addition to summer and fall preburn assessment of the treatment and reference stream, we characterized immediate postfire effects (within a week for macroinvertebrates and within 6 months for fish) and seasonal effects over a 2-year period. Responses within the treatment stream were compared with an unburned reference stream adjacent to the prescription burn. During the burn, the diel range in air temperature increased by 5°C while diel range in water temperature did not change. Carbon–nitrogen ratios did not differ between treatment and reference streams, indicating the contribution of ash from the surrounding grassland was negligible. Although total taxa and species richness of aquatic macroinvertebrates were not altered, qualitative indices revealed departure from preburn condition due to loss of sensitive taxa (mayflies [order Ephemeroptera] and stoneflies [order Plecoptera]) and an increase in tolerant taxa (midges [order Chironomidae]) following the burn. Within 1 year of the burn, these attributes returned to preburn conditions. The density and recruitment of adult Brown Trout Salmo trutta did not differ between pre- and postburn collections, nor did fish condition differ. Fire is rarely truly replicated within a given study. Although our study represents one replication, the results will inform managers about the importance in timing (seasonality) of prescription burn and anticipated effects on aquatic communities.

New Mexico↗

Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

Fisheries↗

Biodegradation of aliphatic vs. aromatic hydrocarbons in fertilized arctic soils

A study was carried out to test a simple bioremediation treatment strategy in the Arctic and analyze the influence of fertilization the degradation of aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons, e.g., pristine, n-tetradecane, n-pentadecane, 2-methylnaphthalene, naphthalene, and acenaphthalene. The site was a coarse sand pad that once supported fuel storage tanks. Diesel-range organics concentrations were 250-860 mg/kg soil at the beginning of the study. Replicate field plots treated with fertilizer yielded final concentrations of 0, 50, 100, or 200 mg N/kg soil. Soil pH and soil-water potentials decreased due to fertilizer application. The addition of fertilizer considerably increased soil respiration potentials, but not the populations of microorganisms measured. Fertilizer addition also led to ??? 50% loss of measured aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons in surface and subsurface soils. For fertilized plots, hydrocarbon loss was not associated with the quantity of fertilizer added. Losses of aliphatic hydrocarbons were ascribed to biotic processes, while losses of aromatic hydrocarbons were due to biotic and abiotic processes.

Bioremediation Journal↗

Field note--Successful establishment of a phytoremediation system at a petroleum-hydrocarbon contaminated shallow aquifer--Trends, trials, and tribulations

We report the establishment of a mixed hybrid poplar ( Populus spp .) and willow ( Salix spp .) phytoremediation system at a fuel-contaminated site. Several approaches were used to balance competing goals of cost-effectiveness yet successful tree establishment without artificial irrigation or trenching. Bare root and unrooted cuttings were installed using either: (1) 1.2 m deep holes excavated with an 8 cm diameter auger using a direct-push rig and backfilled with the excavated, in situ soil; (2) 1.2 m deep holes created with a 23 cm diameter auger attached to a Bobcat rig and backfilled with clean topsoil from offsite; and (3) shallow holes between 15–30 cm deep that were created with a 1.3 cm diameter rod and no backfill. Tree mortality from initial plantings indicated contaminated zones not quantified in prior site investigations and remedial actions. Aquifer heterogeneity, underground utilities, and prior remediation infrastructure hampered the ability of the site to support a traditional experimental design. Total stem length and mortality were measured for all planted trees and were incorporated into a geographic information system. Planting early in the growing season, augering a larger diameter hole, and backfilling with clean, uncontaminated topsoil was cost effective and allowed for greater tree cutting growth and survival.

International Journal of Phytoremediation↗