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USGS2009

Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration

We consider the response of marshland to accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise by utilizing two previously described numerical models of marsh elevation. In a model designed for the Scheldt Estuary (Belgium-SW Netherlands), a feedback between inundation depth and suspended sediment concentrations allows marshes to quickly adjust their elevation to a change in sea-level rise rate. In a model designed for the North Inlet Estuary (South Carolina), a feedback between inundation and vegetation growth allows similar adjustment. Although the models differ in their approach, we find that they predict surprisingly similar responses to sea-level change. Marsh elevations adjust to a step change in the rate of sea-level rise in about 100 years. In the case of a continuous acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, modeled accretion rates lag behind sea-level rise rates by about 20 years, and never obtain equilibrium. Regardless of the style of acceleration, the models predict approximately 6-14 cm of marsh submergence in response to historical sea-level acceleration, and 3-4 cm of marsh submergence in response to a projected scenario of sea-level rise over the next century. While marshes already low in the tidal frame would be susceptible to these depth changes, our modeling results suggest that factors other than historical sea-level acceleration are more important for observations of degradation in most marshes today.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2026

Hyperspectral retrieval of phytoplankton absorption and community composition from NASA’s PACE-OCI in estuarine–coastal waters using a hybrid framework combining mixture-of-experts and Variational Autoencoder

Retrieving the phytoplankton absorption coefficient (a phy ; m−1), one of the most spectrally rich inherent optical properties, remains challenging in optically complex coastal waters worldwide. Leveraging NASA's new hyperspectral mission, PACE, we introduce Hyper-MoE-VAE, a deep-learning architecture that integrates a Mixture-of-Experts with a Variational Autoencoder to retrieve high-dimensional a phy and subsequent estimation of phytoplankton community composition (PCC) from PACE-OCI hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance (R rs ). Pre-trained on global hyperspectral bio-optical datasets and fine-tuned using regional field R rs –a phy pairings from inland– estuarine–coastal waters, Hyper-MoE-VAE demonstrated strong transferability and effective adaptation across regions. Validation with in-situ Rrs showed accurate aphy retrievals in Lake Erie (NRMSE = 0.12, ε = 17.10), Lake Pontchartrain (NRMSE = 0.11, ε = 37.12), and the Barataria–Terrebonne Estuary (NRMSE = 0.14, ε = 38.89). Using same-day PACE-OCI Level 2 Rrs, the model achieved comparable performance in Lake Erie (NRMSE = 0.19, ε = 55.19), Lake Pontchartrain (NRMSE = 0.14, ε = 51.39), and the Barataria–Terrebonne Estuary (NRMSE = 0.17, ε = 47.92). Hyper-MoE-VAE derived PACE-OCI hyperspectral aphy was further decomposed against mass-specific absorption spectra to estimate group-specific contributions to total chlorophyll a. The resulting PCC showed strong agreement with HPLC–CHEMTAX in Lake Erie ( R 2 = 0.692) and Gulf estuarine–coastal systems ( R 2 = 0.732). Monte Carlo noise experiments further revealed group-dependent sensitivities, with diatoms and dinoflagellates showing moderate susceptibility to noise, while cyanobacteria and cryptophytes exhibited narrow uncertainty distributions. These results demonstrate Hyper-MoE-VAE's capability for regional, operational water-quality monitoring with PACE-OCI and its adaptability to current and future hyperspectral missions.

Great Lakes, Lake Pontchartrain↗

USGS2001

Reconstructing the rise of recent coastal anoxia; molybdenum in Chesapeake Bay sediments

Sporadic, direct observations over a 50 yr period inadequately characterize the history of seasonal hypoxia and anoxia in Chesapeake Bay, alarge estuary threatened by eutrophication. Here, we undertake a reconstruction of 20th century oxygen depletion in this estuary using Mo concentrations in 210Pb-dated sediments; Cu concentrations are used to control for anthropogenic influences. Cores from the central channel display mild Mo enrichments above crustal backgrounds (up to 5 ??g/g) and strong Cu enrichments (up to 35 ??g/g). Temporally, Cu enrichment (mostly anthropogenic) began earlier and stabilized in the last two thirds of the 20th century. In contrast, Mo enrichment has grown during the last two thirds of the century. Molybdenum enrichment is mostly hydrogenic, except in a section of the channel that receives additional Mo from erosion of Early Miocene shore deposits. Two geochemical mechanisms promote Mo enrichment: Manganese refluxing concentrates dissolved MoO24- at the sediment-water interface and sulfide substitution into MoO24- produces thiomolybdates, which can be fixed by particles. The Mo enrichment mechanisms operate primarily during periods when bottom waters are anoxic and thiomolybdate formation can occur near the sediment-water interface. This implies a temporal coupling between water-column anoxia and Mo fixation even though fixation occurs only within sediments. The Mo enrichment profiles suggest that Chesapeake Bay has experienced growing O2 depletion since the first half of the 20th century, but especially after 1960. Copyright ?? 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2003

Late Holocene estuarine-inner shelf interactions; is there evidence of an estuarine retreat path for Tampa Bay, Florida?

The purpose of this study was to determine if and how a large, modern estuarine system, situated in the middle of an ancient carbonate platform, has affected its adjacent inner shelf both in the past during the last, post-glacial sea-level rise and during the present. An additional purpose was to determine if and how this inner shelf seaward of a major estuary differed from the inner shelves located just to the north and south but seaward of barrier-island shorelines. Through side-scan sonar mosaicking, bathymetric studies, and ground-truthing using surface grab samples as well as diver observations, two large submarine sand plains were mapped - one being the modern ebb-tidal delta and the other interpreted to be a relict ebb-tidal delta formed earlier in the Holocene. The most seaward portion of the inner shelf studied consists of a field of lobate, bathymetrically elevated, fine-sand accumulations, which were interpreted to be sediment-starved 3D dunes surrounded by small 2D dunes composed of coarse molluscan shell gravel. Additionally, exposed limestone hardbottoms supporting living benthic communities were found as well. This modern shelf sedimentary environment is situated on a large, buried shelf valley, which extends eastward beneath the modern Tampa Bay estuary. These observations plus the absence of an incised shelf valley having surficial bathymetric expression, and the absence of sand bodies normally associated with back-tracking estuarine systems indicate that there was no cross-shelf estuarine retreat path formed during the last rise in sea level. Instead, the modern Tampa Bay formed within a mid-platform, low-relief depression, which was flooded by rising marine waters late in the Holocene. With continued sea-level rise in the late Holocene, this early embayment was translated eastward or landward to its present position, whereby a larger ebb-tidal delta prograded out onto the inner shelf. Extensive linear sand ridges, common to the inner shelves to the north and south, did not form in this shelf province because it was a low-energy, open embayment lacking the wave climate and nearshore zone necessary to create such sand bodies. The distribution of bedforms on the inner shelf and the absence of seaward-oriented 2D dunes on the modern ebb-tidal delta indicate that the modern estuarine system has had little effect on its adjacent inner shelf. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Marine Geology↗

USGS2003

Middle to late Holocene coastal evolution along the south coast of Upolu Island, Samoa

Stratigraphic surveys and sedimentological analyses of coastal sediments and reef cores along the south coast of Upolu Island, Samoa, reveal that during the middle Holocene this coast was characterised by barrier spits, open lagoons, and estuaries. These estuarine systems matured during the late Holocene, with progressive sedimentation and inlet closure, leading to the dominance of mangrove swamps in the past 1000 years. Contemporaneous with the transition of open estuaries to mangrove swamps was the aggradation and progradation of coastal plains. The coastal progradation since 700-1000 years BP is best explained by increased sediment availability and reduced incident wave energy at the shore resulting from the shallowing and subsequent cessation of reef crest accretion following the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand ca. ???4500 yr BP. A small relative sea-level (RSL) lowering since 700-1000 years may have contributed to the positive sediment budget. This study highlights the need for island-wide coastal surveys to assess the relative roles of RSL, sediment budgets, and hydrodynamics on coastal evolution and stability. Differences in coastal evolution around Upolu Island may also be influenced by differential tectonic movements associated with late Holocene volcanism, coseismicity, and/ or submarine landslides. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Marine Geology↗

USGS1999

Seafloor environments in the Long Island Sound estuarine system

Four categories of modern seafloor sedimentary environments have been identified and mapped across the large, glaciated, topographically complex Long Island Sound estuary by means of an extensive regional set of sidescan sonographs, bottom samples, and video-camera observations and supplemental marine-geologic and modeled physical-oceanographic data. (1) Environments of erosion or nondeposition contain sediments which range from boulder fields to gravelly coarse-to-medium sands and appear on the sonographs either as patterns with isolated reflections (caused by outcrops of glacial drift and bedrock) or as patterns of strong backscatter (caused by coarse lag deposits). Areas of erosion or nondeposition were found across the rugged seafloor at the eastern entrance of the Sound and atop bathymetric highs and within constricted depressions in other parts of the basin. (2) Environments of bedload transport contain mostly coarse-to-fine sand with only small amounts of mud and are depicted by sonograph patterns of sand ribbons and sand waves. Areas of bedload transport were found primarily in the eastern Sound where bottom currents have sculptured the surface of a Holocene marine delta and are moving these sediments toward the WSW into the estuary. (3) Environments of sediment sorting and reworking comprise variable amounts of fine sand and mud and are characterized either by patterns of moderate backscatter or by patterns with patches of moderate-to-weak backscatter that reflect a combination of erosion and deposition. Areas of sediment sorting and reworking were found around the periphery of the zone of bedload transport in the eastern Sound and along the southern nearshore margin. They also are located atop low knolls, on the flanks of shoal complexes, and within segments of the axial depression in the western Sound. (4) Environments of deposition are blanketed by muds and muddy fine sands that produce patterns of uniformly weak backscatter. Depositional areas occupy broad areas of the basin floor in the western part of the Sound. The regional distribution of seafloor environments reflects fundamental differences in marine-geologic conditions between the eastern and western parts of the Sound. In the funnel-shaped eastern part, a gradient of strong tidal currents coupled with the net nontidal (estuarine) bottom drift produce a westward progression of environments ranging from erosion or nondeposition at the narrow entrance to the Sound, through an extensive area of bedload transport, to a peripheral zone of sediment sorting. In the generally broader western part of the Sound, a weak tidal-current regime combined with the production of particle aggregates by biologic or chemical processes, cause large areas of deposition that are locally interrupted by a patchy distribution of various other environments where the bottom currents are enhanced by and interact with the seafloor topography.

Marine Geology↗

USGS1997

Recovery strategies for the California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus) in the heavily-urbanized San Francisco estuarine ecosystem

The California clapper rail ( Rallus longirostris obsoletus ), a Federal- and State-listed endangered marsh bird, has a geographic range restricted to one of the most heavily-urbanized estuaries in the world. The rail population has long been in a state of decline, although the exact contribution of each of the many contributing causes remains unclear. The rail is one of the key targets of emerging plans to conserve and restore tidal marshlands. Reduction of tidal marsh habitat, estimated at 85–95%, has been the major historical cause of rail decline. Increased predation intensity may be the more important present problem, because habitat fragmentation and alteration coupled with the invasion of the red fox have made the remaining populations more vulnerable to predators. Population viability analysis shows that adult survivorship is the key demographic variable; reversals in population fate occur over a narrow range of ecologically realistic values. Analysis of habitat requirements and population dynamics of the clapper rail in the San Francisco Estuary shows that decreased within-marsh habitat quality, particularly reduction of tidal flows and alteration of drainage, is an important barrier to population recovery. Management and restoration activities should emphasize the development of well-channelized high tidal marsh, because this is the key requirement of rail habitat. Developing effective restoration programs depends upon having information that field research will not provide. The effect of spatial pattern of reserves requires accurate estimation of the effects of prédation and inter-marsh movement, both of which are practically impossible to measure adequately. It will be necessary to develop and use simulation models that can be applied to geographic data to accomplish this task.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗

USGS2002

Effects of tidal current phase at the junction of two straits

Estuaries typically have a monotonic increase in salinity from freshwater at the head of the estuary to ocean water at the mouth, creating a consistent direction for the longitudinal baroclinic pressure gradient. However, Mare Island Strait in San Francisco Bay has a local salinity minimum created by the phasing of the currents at the junction of Mare Island and Carquinez Straits. The salinity minimum creates converging baroclinic pressure gradients in Mare Island Strait. Equipment was deployed at four stations in the straits for 6 months from September 1997 to March 1998 to measure tidal variability of velocity, conductivity, temperature, depth, and suspended sediment concentration. Analysis of the measured time series shows that on a tidal time scale in Mare Island Strait, the landward and seaward baroclinic pressure gradients in the local salinity minimum interact with the barotropic gradient, creating regions of enhanced shear in the water column during the flood and reduced shear during the ebb. On a tidally averaged time scale, baroclinic pressure gradients converge on the tidally averaged salinity minimum and drive a converging near-bed and diverging surface current circulation pattern, forming a "baroclinic convergence zone" in Mare Island Strait. Historically large sedimentation rates in this area are attributed to the convergence zone.

California↗

USGS1981

Simulation model of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics in northern San Francisco Bay, California

A pseudo-two-dimensional model is developed to simulate population dynamics of one dominant phytoplankton species ( Skeletonema costatum ) in northern San Francisco Bay. The model is formulated around a conceptualization of this estuary as two distinct but coupled subsystems—a deep (10–20 m) central channel and lateral areas with shallow (<2 m) water and slow circulation. Algal growth rates are governed by solar irradiation, temperature and salinity, while population losses are assumed to result from grazing bycalanoid copepods. Consequences of estuarine gravitational circulation are approximated simply by reducing convective-dispersive transport in that section of the channel (null zone) where residual bottom currents are near zero, and lateral mixing is treated as a bulkexchange process between the channel and the shoals. Model output is consistent with the hypothesis that, because planktonic algae are light-limited, shallow areas are the sites of active population growth. Seasonal variation in the location of the null zone (a response to variable river discharge) is responsible for maintaining the spring bloom of neritic diatoms in the seaward reaches of the estuary (San Pablo Bay) and the summer bloom upstream (Suisun Bay). Model output suggests that these spring and summer blooms result from the same general process—establishment of populations over the shoals, where growth rates are rapid, coupled with reduced particulate transport due to estuarine gravitational circulation. It also suggests, however, that the relative importance of physical and biological processes to phytoplankton dynamics is different in San Pablo and Suisun Bays. Finally, the model has helped us determine those processes having sufficient importance to merit further refinement in the next generation of models, and it has given new direction to field studies.

California↗

USGS1999

Sediment chronology in San Francisco Bay, California, defined by 210 Pb, 234 Th, 137 Cs, and 239,340 Pu

Sediment chronologies based on radioisotope depth profiles were developed at two sites in the San Francisco Bay estuary to provide a framework for interpreting historical trends in organic compound and metal contaminant inputs. At Richardson Bay near the estuary mouth, sediments are highly mixed by biological and/or physical processes. Excess penetration ranged from 2 to more than 10 cm at eight coring sites, yielding surface sediment mixing coefficients ranging from 12 to 170 cm 2 /year. At the site chosen for contaminant analyses, excess activity was essentially constant over the upper 25 cm of the core with an exponential decrease below to the supported activity between 70 and 90 cm. Both and penetrated to 57-cm depth and have broad subsurface maxima between 33 and 41 cm. The best fit of the excess profile to a steady state sediment accumulation and mixing model yielded an accumulation rate of 0.825 g/cm 2 /year (0.89 cm/year at sediment surface), surface mixing coefficient of 71 cm 2 /year, and 33-cm mixed zone with a half-Gaussian depth dependence parameter of 9 cm. Simulations of and profiles using these parameters successfully predicted the maximum depth of penetration and the depth of maximum and activity. Profiles of successive 1-year hypothetical contaminant pulses were generated using this parameter set to determine the age distribution of sediments at any depth horizon. Because of mixing, sediment particles with a wide range of deposition dates occur at each depth. A sediment chronology was derived from this age distribution to assign the minimum age of deposition and a date of maximum deposition to a depth horizon. The minimum age of sediments in a given horizon is used to estimate the date of first appearance of a contaminant from its maximum depth of penetration. The date of maximum deposition is used to estimate the peak year of input for a contaminant from the depth interval with the highest concentration of that contaminant. Because of the extensive mixing, sediment-bound constituents are rapidly diluted with older material after deposition. In addition, contaminants persist in the mixed zone for many years after deposition. More than 75 years are required to bury 90% of a deposited contaminant below the mixed zone. Reconstructing contaminant inputs is limited to changes occurring on a 20-year time scale. In contrast, mixing is much lower relative to accumulation at a site in San Pablo Bay. Instead, periods of rapid deposition and/or erosion occurred as indicated by frequent sand-silt laminae in the X-radiograph. , , and excess activity all penetrated to about 120 cm. The distinct maxima in the fallout radionuclides at 105–110 cm yielded overall linear sedimentation rates of 3.9 to 4.1 cm/year, which are comparable to a rate of 4.5±1.5 cm/year derived from the excess profile.

California↗

USGS2007

Sensitivity of estuarine turbidity maximum to settling velocity, tidal mixing, and sediment supply

Estuarine turbidity maximum, numerical modeling, settling velocity, stratification The spatial and temporal distribution of suspended material in an Estuarine Turbidity Maxima (ETM) is primarily controlled by particle settling velocity, tidal mixing, shear-stress thresholds for resuspension, and sediment supply. We vary these parameters in numerical experiments of an idealized two-dimensional (x-z) estuary to demonstrate their affects on the development and retention of particles in an ETM. Parameters varied are the settling velocity (0.01, 0.1, and 0.5 mm/s), tidal amplitude (0.4 m 12 hour tide and 0.3 to 0.6 m 14 day spring neap cycle), and sediment availability (spatial supply limited or unlimited; and temporal supply as a riverine pulse during spring vs. neap tide). Results identify that particles with a low settling velocity are advected out of the estuary and particles with a high settling velocity provide little material transport to an ETM. Particles with an intermediate settling velocity develop an ETM with the greatest amount of material retained. For an unlimited supply of sediment the ETM and limit of salt intrusion co-vary during the spring neap cycle. The ETM migrates landward of the salt intrusion during spring tides and seaward during neap tides. For limited sediment supply the ETM does not respond as an erodible pool of sediment that advects landward and seaward with the salt front. The ETM is maintained seaward of the salt intrusion and controlled by the locus of sediment convergence in the bed. For temporal variability of sediment supplied from a riverine pulse, the ETM traps more sediment if the pulse encounters the salt intrusion at neap tides than during spring tides. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proceedings in Marine Science↗

USGS2014

Earliest record of the invasive Foraminifera Trochammina hadai in San Francisco Bay, California, USA

In 1995, Trochammina hadai , a benthic Foraminifera prevalent in Japanese estuaries, was found in San Francisco Bay, California, USA. Subsequent field investigations determined that the species was also present in nearly all of the major ports and estuaries along the western United States. Because of its widespread colonization, it is of interest to determine when T. hadai first appeared as an invasive in the coastal regions of the North Pacific. In San Francisco Bay, the species was not found in 404 surface samples collected between 1930 and 1981. In 1983, however, a grab sediment sample from one of four sites in the southern portion of the bay contained T. hadai . This site was the most northern of the four and contained 12 specimens of the invasive, comprising 1.5% of the assemblage. This is the earliest appearance on record of T. hadai in San Francisco Bay.

California↗

USGS2021

Nutrient improvements in Chesapeake Bay: Direct effect of load reductions and implications for coastal management

In Chesapeake Bay in the United States, decades of management efforts have resulted in modest reductions of nutrient loads from the watershed, but corresponding improvements in estuarine water quality have not clearly materialized. Generalized additive models were used to directly link river flows and nutrient loads from the watershed to nutrient trends in the estuary on a station-by-station basis, which allowed for identification of exactly when and where responses are happening. Results show that Chesapeake Bay total nitrogen and total phosphorus conditions are mostly improving after accounting for variation in freshwater flow. Almost all of these improving nutrient concentrations in the estuary can be explained by reductions in watershed loads entering through 16 rivers and 145 nearby point sources. These two major types of loads from multiple locations across the watershed are together necessary and responsible for improving estuarine nutrient conditions, a finding that is highly relevant to managing valuable estuarine resources worldwide.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2017

Mercury bioaccumulation in estuarine fishes: Novel insights from sulfur stable isotopes

Estuaries are transitional habitats characterized by complex biogeochemical and ecological gradients that result in substantial variation in fish total mercury concentrations (THg). We leveraged these gradients and used carbon (δ 13 C), nitrogen (δ 15 N), and sulfur (δ 34 S) stable isotopes to examine the ecological and biogeochemical processes underlying THg bioaccumulation in fishes from the San Francisco Bay Estuary. We employed a tiered approach that first examined processes influencing variation in fish THg among wetlands, and subsequently examined the roles of habitat and within-wetland processes in generating larger-scale patterns in fish THg. We found that δ 34 S, an indicator of sulfate reduction and habitat specific-foraging, was correlated with fish THg at all three spatial scales. Over the observed ranges of δ 34 S, THg concentrations in fish increased by up to 860% within wetlands, 560% among wetlands, and 291% within specific impounded wetland habitats. In contrast, δ 13 C and δ 15 N were not correlated with THg among wetlands and were only important in low salinity impounded wetlands, possibly reflecting more diverse food webs in this habitat. Together, our results highlight the key roles of sulfur biogeochemistry and ecology in influencing estuarine fish THg, as well as the importance of fish ecology and habitat in modulating the relationships between biogeochemical processes and Hg bioaccumulation.

California↗

USGS2002

Contamination of estuarine water, biota, and sediment by halogenated organic compounds: A field study

Studies conducted in the vicinity of an industrial outfall in the Calcasieu River estuary, Louisiana, have shown that water, bottom and suspended sediment, and four different species of biota are contaminated with halogenated organic compounds (HOC) including haloarenes. A "salting-out" effect in the estuary moderately enhanced the partitioning tendency of the contaminants into biota and sediments. Contaminant concentrations in water, suspended sediments, and biota were found to be far below the values predicted on the basis of the assumption of phase equilibria with respect to concentrations in bottom sediment. Relative concentration factors of HOC between biota (catfish) and bottom sediment increased with increasing octanol/estuarine water partition coefficients (Kow*), maximizing at log Kow* of about 5, although these ratios were considerably less than equilibrium values. In contrast, contaminant concentrations in water, biota, and suspended sediments were much closer to equilibrium values. Bioconcentration factors of HOC determined on the basis of lipid content for four different biotic species correlated reasonably well with equilibrium triolein/water partition coefficients (Ktw).

Louisiana↗

USGS2001

Contaminant profiles of two species of shorebirds foraging together at two neighboring sites in south San Francisco Bay, California

The San Francisco Bay estuary isused by over one million shorebirds during springmigration and is home to several hundred thousandduring the winter. Most shorebird use occurs in thesouthern reach of the estuary (South Bay). Thereduced water circulation and discharge fromindustrial sources in the South Bay are responsiblefor the highest levels of some trace elements in theestuary. Wintering shorebirds have been found to havestrong site fidelity to areas as small as a fewkilometers in the South Bay, which may increase theirexposure to contaminants near local point sources. Inaddition, different shorebird species foraging at thesame site have been shown to have differentcontaminant burdens. Thus, our objectives were totest whether contaminant burdens differed by species,or whether contaminant burdens differed in shorebirdscollected at adjacent sites. We examined thecontaminant profiles of two species of shorebirds,long-billed dowitchers ( Limnodromus scolopaceus )and western sandpipers ( Calidris mauri ) thatforage together at two sites, Hayward and Newark,separated by 8 km in the South Bay. We usedmultivariate analysis of variance tests to compare thecomposition of 14 elemental analytes in their livertissues and estimated their molar ratios of Hg and Se. Composite samples were used for contaminant analysesbecause of the small body size of the shorebirds. Seven elemental analytes (Ag, Ba, Be, Cr, Ni, Pb, V)were below detection limits in a majority of thesamples so statistical analyses were precluded. Inthe measurable analytes (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Se, Zn),we found no significant intra-site differences ofcontaminant profiles for the two species. We pooledthe samples to examine inter-site differences andfound significant differences in contaminant profilesbetween shorebirds at the neighboring sites ( P = 0.03). Shorebirds at Newark had higher ( P < 0.05) concentrations of As, Cd, and Se than those at Hayward. Dowitchers at Newark had concentrations of Hg and Se which were highly correlated ( P < 0.003) in a mean molar ratio of 1:19, similar tothat reported in other birds. In the larger dowitcherspecies, we also examined exposure to 20organochlorine compounds. Organic analyses showedthat the dowitchers had been exposed to DDE, PCBs,dieldrin and trans-nonachlor, but with no significantdifferences in concentrations between Hayward andNewark ( P > 0.05).

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2011

Process-based, morphodynamic hindcast of decadal deposition patterns in San Pablo Bay, California, 1856-1887

This study investigates the possibility of hindcasting-observed decadal-scale morphologic change in San Pablo Bay, a subembayment of the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, by means of a 3-D numerical model (Delft3D). The hindcast period, 1856-1887, is characterized by upstream hydraulic mining that resulted in a high sediment input to the estuary. The model includes wind waves, salt water and fresh water interactions, and graded sediment transport, among others. Simplified initial conditions and hydrodynamic forcing were necessary because detailed historic descriptions were lacking. Model results show significant skill. The river discharge and sediment concentration have a strong positive influence on deposition volumes. Waves decrease deposition rates and have, together with tidal movement, the greatest effect on sediment distribution within San Pablo Bay. The applied process-based (or reductionist) modeling approach is valuable once reasonable values for model parameters and hydrodynamic forcing are obtained. Sensitivity analysis reveals the dominant forcing of the system and suggests that the model planform plays a dominant role in the morphodynamic development. A detailed physical explanation of the model outcomes is difficult because of the high nonlinearity of the processes. Process formulation refinement, a more detailed description of the forcing, or further model parameter variations may lead to an enhanced model performance, albeit to a limited extent. The approach potentially provides a sound basis for prediction of future developments. Parallel use of highly schematized box models and a process-based approach as described in the present work is probably the most valuable method to assess decadal morphodynamic development. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

California↗

USGS2010

Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large‐scale climate forcing over the North Pacific

Long‐term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with large‐scale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record‐high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two‐thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.

California↗