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At least 919 records · Page 51Linked to original sources

GAGES: A stream gage database for evaluating natural and alteredflow conditions in the conterminous United States

Stream flow is a controlling element in the ecology of rivers and streams. Knowledge of the natural flow regime facilitates the assessment of whether specific hydrologic attributes have been altered by humans in a particular stream and the establishment of specific goals for stream-flow restoration. Because most streams are ungaged or have been altered by human influences, characterizing the natural flow regime is often only possible by estimating flow characteristics based on nearby stream gages of reference quality, i.e., gaged locations that are least disturbed by human influences. The ability to evaluate natural stream flow, that which is not altered by human activities, would be enhanced by the existence of a nationally consistent and up-to-date database of gages in relatively undisturbed watersheds. As part of a national effort to characterize stream-flow effects on ecological condition, data for 6785 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages and their upstream watersheds were compiled. The sites comprise all USGS stream gages in the conterminous United States with at least 20 years of complete-year flow record from 1950–2007, and for which watershed boundaries could reliably be delineated (median size ¼ 578 km2). Several hundred watershed and site characteristics were calculated or compiled from national data sources, including environmental features (e.g., climate, geology, soils, topography) and anthropogenic influences (e.g., land use, roads, presence of dams, or canals). In addition, watersheds were assessed for their reference quality within nine broad regions for use in studies intended to characterize stream flows under conditions minimally influenced by human activities. Three primary criteria were used to assess reference quality: (1) a quantitative index of anthropogenic modification within the watershed based on GIS-derived variables, (2) visual inspection of every stream gage and drainage basin from recent high-resolution imagery and topographic maps, and (3) information about man-made influences from USGS Annual Water Data Reports. From the set of 6785 sites, we identified 1512 as reference-quality stream gages. All data derived for these watersheds as well as the reference condition evaluation are provided as an online data set termed GAGES (geospatial attributes of gages for evaluating stream flow).

Ecology↗

A model for regional-scale oak savanna management: The roles of fire, canopy, and soils for understory plant diversity

Predicting the outcomes of land management on biodiversity is difficult without a mechanistic understanding of how management approaches, ecosystem structure, environmental conditions, and biodiversity interact. Management effects may be direct or indirect, context- or scale-dependent, or obscured by local environmental conditions. Resolving these relationships at the regional scale may be difficult, given heterogeneity in local environmental conditions, yet understanding broad-scale patterns can elucidate context dependencies and improve restoration outcomes. We confronted these challenges within globally rare oak savannas in the midwestern United States, which have been altered by fire exclusion and resulting woody encroachment. By modeling direct and indirect pathways by which management influences diversity, we test a general framework for savanna restoration. Across 100 oak savannas spanning five US states, management by prescribed fire and mechanical thinning of woody vegetation affected groundlayer plant species richness through changes to ecosystem structure (canopy openness and litter depth), and these effects were both context- and scale-dependent. Frequent prescribed fires and canopy thinning promoted greater canopy openness, which in turn increased richness at small (1 m 2 ), but not larger (1000 m 2 ) scales. Frequent fire additionally increased richness at small and larger scales through effects independent of ecosystem structure. While management effects were large relative to the influence of local edaphic conditions, soil productivity had two largely offsetting effects on small-scale richness, increasing richness directly but decreasing richness indirectly by promoting closed canopy structure. These results suggest using a combination of fire and canopy thinning to reverse the effects of decades of fire exclusion. However, management effects were also context-dependent, emphasizing that management outcomes vary regionally. Here, 1-m 2 plant species richness increased with both fire frequency and canopy thinning under low, but not high, productivity soil conditions. By demonstrating how specific management practices influence savanna structure and biodiversity by manipulating ecological processes across broad geographic and edaphic gradients, our findings provide a framework for understanding management outcomes at short and medium intervals (e.g., within and between decades, respectively), in the form of a model that can be refined by testing additional hypotheses to better predict savanna restoration outcomes.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin↗

Experimental enhancement of pickleweed, Suisun Bay, California

As mitigation for habitat impacted by the expansion of a pier on Suisun Bay, California, two vehicle parking lots (0.36 ha and 0.13 ha) were restored by being excavated, graded, and contoured using dredged sediments to the topography or elevation of nearby wetlands. We asked if pickleweed (Sarcocornia pacifica L, [Amaranthaceae]) colonization could be enhanced by experimental manipulation on these new wetlands. Pickleweed dominates ecologically important communities at adjacent San Francisco Bay, but is not typically dominant at Suisun Bay probably because of widely fluctuating water salinity and is outcompeted by other brackish water plants. Experimental treatments (1.0-m2 plots) included mulching with pickleweed cuttings in either the fall or the spring, tilling in the fall, or applying organic enrichments in the fall. Control plots received no treatment. Pickleweed colonization was most enhanced at treatment plots that were mulched with pickleweed in the fall. Since exotic vegetation can colonize bare sites within the early phases of restoration and reduce habitat quality, we concluded that mulching was most effective in the fall by reducing invasive plant cover while facilitating native plant colonization.

California Fish and Game↗

Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? A remote sensing approach

Spring‐fed wetlands are ecologically important habitats in arid and semi‐arid regions. Springs have been suggested as possible hydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change; however, springs that depend on recent precipitation or snowmelt for recharge may be vulnerable to warming and drought intensification. Springs that are expected to maintain their ecohydrologic function in a warmer, drier climate may be priorities for conservation and restoration. Identifying such springs is difficult because many springs lack hydrologic records of adequate temporal extent and resolution to assess their resilience to water cycle changes. This study demonstrates proof‐of‐concept for the assessment of certain spring types (i.e., helocrene, hypocrene, and hillslope springs) in terms of hydrologic and ecological resilience to climatic water stress using freely available remote‐sensing and climate data. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1985 through 2011 to delineate surface‐moisture zones (SMZs) associated with 39 clusters of 172 springs in a montane sage‐steppe landscape in southeastern Oregon, USA. We developed and synthesized seven NDVI‐based indicators of SMZ resilience to interannual changes in water availability: (1) mean and (2) standard deviation of July NDVI; (3) mean difference in July NDVI and (4) difference in coefficient of variation for July NDVI between each SMZ and its surrounding watershed; (5) response of SMZ July NDVI to 90‐day antecedent precipitation; (6) response of SMZ July NDVI to the previous winter's snowpack; and (7) range of NDVI values from an exceptionally wet year followed by three dry years. Because all resilience indicators were highly inter‐correlated, we derived an overall metric of SMZ resilience using principal components analysis that accounted for 66% of total variance. This overall resilience score was positively correlated with SMZ elevation, slope, mean annual precipitation, and with the number of associated springs. Resilience was greater for SMZs on topographically shaded, north‐facing slopes. Several high‐resilience SMZs were located immediately below persistent snowbanks, suggesting a possible source of steady recharge throughout the growing season. The approach presented here—if combined with field assessments of spring hydrogeology, discharge, and groundwater age—could help identify spring‐fed wetlands that are most likely to serve as hydrologic refugia from climate change.

Oregon↗

A geological perspective on the degradation and conservation of western Atlantic coral reefs

Continuing coral-reef degradation in the western Atlantic is resulting in loss of ecological and geologic functions of reefs. With the goal of assisting resource managers and stewards of reefs in setting and measuring progress toward realistic goals for coral-reef conservation and restoration, we examined reef degradation in this region from a geological perspective. The importance of ecosystem services provided by coral reefs—as breakwaters that dissipate wave energy and protect shorelines and as providers of habitat for innumerable species—cannot be overstated. However, the few coral species responsible for reef building in the western Atlantic during the last approximately 1.5 million years are not thriving in the 21st century. These species are highly sensitive to abrupt temperature extremes, prone to disease infection, and have low sexual reproductive potential. Their vulnerability and the low functional redundancy of branching corals have led to the low resilience of western Atlantic reef ecosystems. The decrease in live coral cover over the last 50 years highlights the need for study of relict (senescent) reefs, which, from the perspective of coastline protection and habitat structure, may be just as important to conserve as the living coral veneer. Research is needed to characterize the geological processes of bioerosion, reef cementation, and sediment transport as they relate to modern-day changes in reef elevation. For example, although parrotfish remove nuisance macroalgae, possibly promoting coral recruitment, they will not save Atlantic reefs from geological degradation. In fact, these fish are quickly nibbling away significant quantities of Holocene reef framework. The question of how different biota covering dead reefs affect framework resistance to biological and physical erosion needs to be addressed. Monitoring and managing reefs with respect to physical resilience, in addition to ecological resilience, could optimize the expenditure of resources in conserving Atlantic reefs and the services they provide.

Conservation Biology↗

Evaluation of sockeye salmon after passage through an innovative upstream fish-passage system at Cle Elum Dam, Washington, 2017

Executive Summary The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology), working with the Yakima River Basin Water Enhancement Project Workgroup (composed of representatives of the Yakama Nation; Federal, State, county, and city governments; environmental organizations; and irrigation districts), developed the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan (Integrated Plan). The Integrated Plan identifies a comprehensive approach to water resources and ecosystem restoration improvements in the Yakima Basin to be implemented over a 30-year period. The Integrated Plan includes seven elements: Reservoir fish passage, Structural and operational changes to existing facilities, Surface water storage, Groundwater storage, Habitat/watershed protection and enhancement, Enhanced water conservation, and Market reallocation. The first listed element, reservoir fish passage, will be expensive and take many years to accomplish. Reclamation and Ecology decided to look at new and innovative means to provide passage that could help reduce project cost and construction timing while maintaining survival rates of traditional upstream passage facilities. Reclamation contracted with the U.S. Geological Survey to do a study to evaluate the outcome of passage through one innovative fish-passage system at Cle Elum Dam, the first Integrated Plan reservoir fish-passage project being implemented.

Washington↗

Temporal mismatch in space use by a sagebrush obligate species after large-scale wildfire

The increase in size and frequency of wildfires in sagebrush steppe ecosystems has significant impacts on sagebrush obligate species. We modeled seasonal habitat use by female greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the Trout Creek Mountains of Oregon and Nevada, USA, to identify landscape characteristics that influenced sage-grouse habitat selection and to create predictive surfaces of seasonal use 1 and 7 years postfire. We developed three resource selection function models using GPS location data from 2013 to 2019 for three biologically distinct seasons (breeding, n = 149 individuals: 8 March–12 June; summer, n = 140 individuals: 13 June–20 October; and winter, n = 94 individuals: 21 October–7 March). For all seasons, by the fourth or fifth year postfire, sage-grouse selected for unburned patches more than all other burn severity patches and the use of unburned areas in comparison with burned areas increased through time. During the breeding season, sage-grouse selected for low-sagebrush ( Artemisia arbuscula )-dominated ecosystems and areas with low biomass (normalized difference vegetation index). During summer, sage-grouse selected for areas with higher annual and perennial grasses and forb cover, and areas that had higher biomass. During winter, sage-grouse selected for areas of intact sagebrush on less rugged terrain. For the winter and breeding season, there was a positive linear relationship between annual grasses and forb cover through time. Seven years postfire (2019), the area predicted to have a high probability of use in each seasonal range decreased (breeding: 16.4%; summer: 12.2%; and winter: 4.2%), while the area predicted to have low or low-medium probability of use increased (breeding: 14.5%; summer: 22.5%; and winter: 22.8%) when compared to the first year following the wildfire (2013). Our results demonstrated a 4- to 5-year time lag before female sage-grouse adapted to a disturbed landscape began avoiding burned areas more than intact, unburned habitats. This mismatch in ecological response may imply declines in habitat availability for sage-grouse and may destabilize population vital rates. Spatially explicit models can aid in identifying priority areas for restoration efforts and conservation actions to mitigate the impacts of future disturbances.

Nevada, Oregon↗

Fluvial delivery and wave resuspension of sediment in a sheltered, urbanized Pacific Northwest estuary

The sequence and timing of sediment delivery and redistribution in coastal systems is important for shoreline stability, ecosystem services, and remediation planning. In temperate estuaries, understanding the role of fluvial sediment delivery and dispersal relative to wind and wave remobilization processes is particularly important to address the fate of contaminants, many of which adsorb to fine particles, and to assess changes in coastal systems under projected changes in climate. Here we present an integrated analysis of observations at multiple timescales to evaluate sediment dynamics and the sedimentary coupling between fluvial and oceanographic processes within Bellingham Bay, Washington, USA, an urban estuary. Time-series data of currents, waves, and turbidity at four moorings along with geochemical data from grab samples and cores of seabed sediment from across the bay are contrasted with the dynamics of the Nooksack River, its fluvial sediment source. Even during large (5-yr return interval) river-flood events, water-column suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) near the bed on the outer delta topset was not correlated with Nooksack River runoff and was instead closely correlated with local wind-wave height. In contrast, near-surface SSC was strongly correlated with fluvial discharge, suggesting intense water-column suspended-sediment stratification during flood events. Grain-size and geochemical ( 7 "> 7 Be and excess 210 "> 210 Pb) results from seabed-sediment samples and historical bathymetric measurements of the subaqueous Nooksack River delta reveal spatial gradients of fluvial and wave influence and sediment-accumulation rates. Analysis of historical bathymetric surveys of the Nooksack River delta combined with the geochemical data reveal that about 75% of the fluvial sediment load can be accounted for in the Bellingham Bay receiving system. Studies of this type in urbanized coastal settings can help address ecological and geological questions regarding the risks from contaminants associated with fine-grained sediment, predict longer-term delta morphological evolution, and inform managers planning future coastal restoration efforts

Washington↗

Recent and historic drivers of landscape change in the Everglades ridge, slough, and Tree Island mosaic

More than half of the original Everglades extent formed a patterned peat mosaic of elevated ridges, lower and more open sloughs, and tree islands aligned parallel to the dominant flow direction. This ecologically important landscape structure remained in a dynamic equilibrium for millennia prior to rapid degradation over the past century in response to human manipulation of the hydrologic system. Restoration of the patterned landscape structure is one of the primary objectives of the Everglades restoration effort. Recent research has revealed that three main drivers regulated feedbacks that initiated and maintained landscape structure: the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water depths, surface and subsurface flow, and phosphorus supply. Causes of recent degradation include but are not limited to perturbations to these historically important controls; shifts in mineral and sulfate supply may have also contributed to degradation. Restoring predrainage hydrologic conditions will likely preserve remaining landscape pattern structure, provided a sufficient supply of surface water with low nutrient and low total dissolved solids content exists to maintain a rainfall-driven water chemistry. However, because of hysteresis in landscape evolution trajectories, restoration of areas with a fully degraded landscape could require additional human intervention.

Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Tech↗

The Everglades vulnerability analysis—Integrating ecological models and addressing uncertainty

The Everglades vulnerability analysis (EVA) is a project led by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to accomplish one of the science goals of Restoration Coordination & Verification (RECOVER), a multiagency group responsible for providing scientific and technical evaluations and assessments for improving the ability of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan to restore, preserve, and protect the south Florida ecosystem while providing for the region’s other water-related needs. In 2016, RECOVER acknowledged the need for a tool that could synthesize the decades of Everglades ecosystem science and identify areas vulnerable to changing conditions on the landscape. The EVA tool answers this need through a landscape-scale modeling framework that provides annual responses and relative vulnerability for a suite of indicators of Everglades ecosystem health.

Florida↗

Hydrological information products for the Off-Project Water Program of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement

The Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) was developed by a diverse group of stakeholders, Federal and State resource management agencies, Tribal representatives, and interest groups to provide a comprehensive solution to ecological and water-supply issues in the Klamath Basin. The Off-Project Water Program (OPWP), one component of the KBRA, has as one of its purposes to permanently provide an additional 30,000 acre-feet of water per year on an average annual basis to Upper Klamath Lake through "voluntary retirement of water rights or water uses or other means as agreed to by the Klamath Tribes, to improve fisheries habitat and also provide for stability of irrigation water deliveries." The geographic area where the water rights could be retired encompasses approximately 1,900 square miles. The OPWP area is defined as including the Sprague River drainage, the Sycan River drainage downstream of Sycan Marsh, the Wood River drainage, and the Williamson River drainage from Kirk Reef at the southern end of Klamath Marsh downstream to the confluence with the Sprague River. Extensive, broad, flat, poorly drained uplands, valleys, and wetlands characterize much of the study area. Irrigation is almost entirely used for pasture. To assist parties involved with decisionmaking and implementation of the OPWP, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Klamath Tribes and other stakeholders, created five hydrological information products. These products include GIS digital maps and datasets containing spatial information on evapotranspiration, subirrigation indicators, water rights, subbasin streamflow statistics, and return-flow indicators. The evapotranspiration (ET) datasets were created under contract for this study by Evapotranspiration, Plus, LLC, of Twin Falls, Idaho. A high-resolution remote sensing technique known as Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution and Internalized Calibration (METRIC) was used to create estimates of the spatial distribution of ET. The METRIC technique uses thermal infrared Landsat imagery to quantify actual evapotranspiration at a 30-meter resolution that can be related to individual irrigated fields. Because evaporation uses heat energy, ground surfaces with large ET rates are left cooler as a result of ET than ground surfaces that have less ET. As a consequence, irrigated fields appear in the Landsat images as cooler than nonirrigated fields. Products produced from this study include total seasonal and total monthly (April-October) actual evapotranspiration maps for 2004 (a dry year) and 2006 (a wet year). Maps showing indicators of natural subirrigation were also provided by this study. "Subirrigation" as used here is the evapotranspiration of shallow groundwater by plants with roots that penetrate to or near the water table. Subirrigation often occurs at locations where the water table is at or above the plant rooting depth. Natural consumptive use by plants diminishes the benefit of retiring water rights in subirrigated areas. Some agricultural production may be possible, however, on subirrigated lands for which water rights are retired. Because of the difficulty in precisely mapping and quantifying subirrigation, this study presents several sources of spatially mapped data that can be used as indicators of higher subirrigation probability. These include the floodplain boundaries defined by stream geomorphology, water-table depth defined in Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) soil surveys, and soil rooting depth defined in NRCS soil surveys. The two water-rights mapping products created in the study were "points of diversion" (POD) and "place of use" (POU) for surface-water irrigation rights. To create these maps, all surface-water rights data, decrees, certificates, permits, and unadjudicated claims within the entire 1,900 square mile study area were aggregated into a common GIS geodatabase. Surface-water irrigation rights within a 5-mile buffer of the study area were then selected and identified. The POU area was then totaled by water right for primary and supplemental water rights. The maximum annual volume (acre-feet) allowed under each water right also was calculated using the POU area and duty (allowable annual irrigation application in feet). In cases where a water right has more than one designated POD, the total volume for the water right was equally distributed to each POD listed for the water right. Because of this, mapped distribution of diversion rates for some rights may differ from actual practice. Water-right information in the map products was from digital datasets obtained from the Oregon Water Resources Department and was, at the time acquired, the best available compilation of water-right information available. Because the completeness and accuracy of the water-right data could not be verified, users are encouraged to check directly with the Oregon Water Resources Department where specific information on individual rights or locations is essential. A dataset containing streamflow statistics for 72 subbasins in the study area was created for the study area. The statistics include annual flow durations (5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 95-percent exceedances) and 7-day, 10-year (7Q10) and 7-day, 2-year (7Q2) low flows, and were computed using regional regression equations based on measured streamflow records in the region. Daily streamflow records used were adjusted as needed for crop consumptive use; therefore the statistics represent streamflow under more natural conditions as though irrigation diversions did not exist. Statistics are provided for flow rates resulting from streamflow originating from within the entire drainage area upstream of the subbasin pour point (referring to the outlet of the contributing drainage basin). The statistics were computed for the purpose of providing decision makers with the ability to estimate streamflow that would be expected after water conservation techniques have been implemented or a water right has been retired. A final product from the study are datasets of indicators of the potential for subsurface return flow of irrigation water from agricultural areas to nearby streams. The datasets contain information on factors such as proximity to surface-water features, geomorphic floodplain characteristics, and depth to water. The digital data, metadata, and example illustrations for the datasets described in this report are available on-line from the USGS Water Resources National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) Node Website http://water.usgs.gov/lookup/getgislist or from the U.S. Government website DATA.gov at http://www.data.gov with links provided in a Microsoft® Excel® workbook in appendix A.

California;Oregon↗

Accuracy of the Missouri River Least Tern and Piping Plover Monitoring Program: considerations for the future

The upper Missouri River system provides nesting and foraging habitat for federally endangered least terns (Sternula antillarum; hereafter “terns”) and threatened piping plovers (Charadrius melodus; hereafter “plovers”). These species are the subject of substantial management interest on the Missouri River for several reasons. First, ecosystem recovery is a goal for management agencies that seek to maintain or restore natural functions and native biological communities for the Missouri River system. Terns and plovers are recognized as important ecosystem components that are linked with the river’s ecological functions. Second, although both species breed beyond the Missouri River system, the Missouri River is one of the principal breeding areas in the Northern Great Plains; thus, the river system is a focal area for recovery actions targeted at regional population goals. Third, a Biological Opinion for Missouri River operations established annual productivity goals for terns and plovers, and the recovery plan for each species established annual population goals. Meeting these goals is a key motivation in management decision making and implementation with regard to both species. A myriad of conservation and management interests necessitate understanding numbers, distribution, and productivity of terns and plovers on the Missouri River system. To this end, a Tern and Plover Monitoring Program (TPMP) was implemented by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (hereafter “Corps”) in 1986, and has since provided annual estimates of tern and plover numbers and productivity for five Missouri River reservoirs and four river reaches (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1993). The TPMP has served as the primary source of information about the status of terns and plovers on the Missouri River, and TPMP data have been used for a wide variety of purposes. In 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center (NPWRC) was tasked by the Corps to evaluate the accuracy of the TPMP and provide guidance on revising the program to assess tern and plover numbers and reproductive success. Accordingly, NPWRC studied terns and plovers on two river reaches and one reservoir (hereafter “the evaluation”), and used the results of those studies to help understand properties and potential limitations of TPMP data and to provide guidance for TPMP revisions. The purpose of this report is to present an overview and evaluation of the TPMP data, the results of our intensive monitoring, and propose an alternative idea that provides a framework for making decisions about how to monitor terns and plovers.

Montana;Nebraska;North Dakota;South Dakota↗

Seasonal and decadal-scale channel evolution on the dammed Elwha River, Washington

More than 75,000 dams exist in the continental United States to provide water storage, flood control, and hydropower generation (Graf, 1999). Many of these were built during the early twentieth century and are due for relicensing consideration now and in the near future. The cost of repairing aging dams, together with growing understanding of the ecologic effects of river regulation (Williams and Wolman, 1984; Dynesius and Nilsson, 1994; Graf, 1999, 2003; Yang et al., 2007), in some places have prompted dam removal, facilitating restoration of riparian habitat to a more natural state. In the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S., river-restoration efforts are commonly targeted to improve habitat quality for native salmonid fish species, many runs of which have declined precipitiously from their historical conditions (owing, in part, to overfishing and habitat loss and degradation) and are now endangered (e.g., Nehlsen, 1997; Larsen et al., 2004; Pess et al., 2008). Removal of dams that block the upstream migration of anadromous fish is considered an important step toward any potential recovery of Pacific Northwest salmon and steelhead populations.

Washington↗

Recovery strategies for the California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus) in the heavily-urbanized San Francisco estuarine ecosystem

The California clapper rail ( Rallus longirostris obsoletus ), a Federal- and State-listed endangered marsh bird, has a geographic range restricted to one of the most heavily-urbanized estuaries in the world. The rail population has long been in a state of decline, although the exact contribution of each of the many contributing causes remains unclear. The rail is one of the key targets of emerging plans to conserve and restore tidal marshlands. Reduction of tidal marsh habitat, estimated at 85–95%, has been the major historical cause of rail decline. Increased predation intensity may be the more important present problem, because habitat fragmentation and alteration coupled with the invasion of the red fox have made the remaining populations more vulnerable to predators. Population viability analysis shows that adult survivorship is the key demographic variable; reversals in population fate occur over a narrow range of ecologically realistic values. Analysis of habitat requirements and population dynamics of the clapper rail in the San Francisco Estuary shows that decreased within-marsh habitat quality, particularly reduction of tidal flows and alteration of drainage, is an important barrier to population recovery. Management and restoration activities should emphasize the development of well-channelized high tidal marsh, because this is the key requirement of rail habitat. Developing effective restoration programs depends upon having information that field research will not provide. The effect of spatial pattern of reserves requires accurate estimation of the effects of prédation and inter-marsh movement, both of which are practically impossible to measure adequately. It will be necessary to develop and use simulation models that can be applied to geographic data to accomplish this task.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗

Structured decision making and optimal bird monitoring in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The avian conservation community struggles to design and implement large scale, long-term coordinated bird monitoring programs within the northern Gulf of Mexico due to the complexity of the conservation enterprise in the region; this complexity arises from the diverse stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions, complex ecological processes, myriad habitats, and over 500 species of birds using the region for at least some part of their annual cycle. In addition, long-term monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult because of the need for monitoring data to both (1) evaluate management and restoration outcomes, and (2) provide reliable information about the status and trends of bird populations over time. To address these challenges, the Gulf of Mexico Avian Monitoring Network developed a problem statement: “How can a cost-effective monitoring strategy for the Gulf Coast bird community and ecosystem be developed that evaluates ongoing conservation activities and chronic and acute threats; maximizes learning; and is flexible and holistic enough to detect novel ecological threats and evaluate new and emerging conservation activities?” A structured decision-making framework was then used to articulate and quantify stakeholder values related to the problem statement. One use of the stakeholder values was to develop a regional, strategic plan for bird monitoring, which is presented elsewhere. A formal and complete decision support tool for conservation investments in monitoring and research guided by the stakeholder values is presented in this report. The technical aspects of the stakeholder value model and a portfolio analysis that could be used to guide decision making when allocating resources for monitoring activities is described. Whereas the decision analysis presented here could be useful to any decision maker faced with difficult choices about resource allocation, it is designed for decision makers who request monitoring study proposals and then determine which combination of proposals to fund. The portfolio decision support tool is designed to help funding agencies and organizations identify resource allocation strategies to maximize stated objectives. To begin the decision analysis, an objectives hierarchy and quantitative performance metrics from the values of the Gulf of Mexico bird conservation community were created by a panel of regional stakeholders. Each fundamental objective and sub-objective in the hierarchy is composed of several performance metrics. To test the decision support tool, the authors evaluated a combination of monitoring study proposals written for the region and simulated proposals. Each proposal was scored against the performance metrics and used multi-attribute utility theory to combine the multiple objectives into a measure of total monitoring benefit. The total monitoring benefit and costs of each proposal were then used in a constrained optimization routine to identify optimal monitoring portfolios, that is, a combination of activities that maximizes monitoring benefits while meeting cost and other constraints of interest to stakeholders. A graphical solution based on the concept of Pareto efficiency, which is useful in situations when cost constraints and exact budgets are not known, is also provided. Finally, an evaluation of the sensitivity of the decision-making framework to the weights assigned to objectives by stakeholders is included. This decision support tool allows decision makers to identify an optimal suite of monitoring proposals with a transparent portfolio analysis that includes user-defined constraints (such as costs).

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

Both real-time and long-term environmental data perform well in predicting shorebird distributions in managed habitat

Highly mobile species, such as migratory birds, respond to seasonal and inter-annual variability in resource availability by moving to better habitats. Despite the recognized importance of resource thresholds, species distribution models typically rely on long-term average habitat conditions, mostly because large-extent, temporally-resolved, environmental data are difficult to obtain. Recent advances in remote sensing make it possible to incorporate more frequent measurements of changing landscapes; however, there is often a cost in terms of model building and processing and the added value of such efforts is unknown. Our study tests whether incorporating real-time environmental data increases the predictive ability of distribution models, relative to using long-term average data. We developed and compared distribution models for shorebirds in California's Central Valley based on high temporal resolution (every 16-days), and 17-year long-term average, surface water data. Using abundance-weighted boosted regression trees, we modeled monthly shorebird occurrence as a function of surface water availability, crop type, wetland type, road density, temperature, and bird data source. While modeling with both real-time and long-term average data provided good fit to withheld validation data (0.79 < AUC < 0.89 across taxa), there were small differences in model performance. The best models incorporated long-term average conditions and spatial pattern information for real-time flooding (e.g. perimeter-area ratio of real-time water bodies). There was not a substantial difference in the performance of real-time and long-term average data models within time periods when real-time surface water differed substantially from the long-term average (specifically during drought years 2013-2016) and in intermittently flooded months or locations. Spatial predictions resulting from the models differed most in the southern region of the study area where there is lower water availability, fewer birds, and lower sampling density. Prediction uncertainty in the southern region of the study area highlights the need for increased sampling in this area. Because both sets of data performed similarly, the choice of which data to use may depend on the management context. Real-time data may ultimately be best for guiding dynamic, adaptive conservation actions whereas models based on long-term averages may be more helpful for guiding permanent wetland protection and restoration.

Ecological Applications↗

Spatial sampling bias and model complexity in stream-based species distribution models: A case study of Paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) in the Arkansas River basin, USA

Leveraging existing presence records and geospatial datasets, species distribution modeling has been widely applied to informing species conservation and restoration efforts. Maxent is one of the most popular modeling algorithms, yet recent research has demonstrated Maxent models are vulnerable to prediction errors related to spatial sampling bias and model complexity. Despite elevated rates of biodiversity imperilment in stream ecosystems, the application of Maxent models to stream networks has lagged, as has the availability of tools to address potential sources of error and calculate model evaluation metrics when modeling in nonraster environments (such as stream networks). Herein, we use Maxent and customized R code to estimate the potential distribution of paddlefish ( Polyodon spathula ) at a stream-segment level within the Arkansas River basin, USA, while accounting for potential spatial sampling bias and model complexity. Filtering the presence data appeared to adequately remove an eastward, large-river sampling bias that was evident within the unfiltered presence dataset. In particular, our novel riverscape filter provided a repeatable means of obtaining a relatively even coverage of presence data among watersheds and streams of varying sizes. The greatest differences in estimated distributions were observed among models constructed with default versus AIC C -selected parameterization. Although all models had similarly high performance and evaluation metrics, the AIC C -selected models were more inclusive of westward-situated and smaller, headwater streams. Overall, our results solidified the importance of accounting for model complexity and spatial sampling bias in SDMs constructed within stream networks and provided a roadmap for future paddlefish restoration efforts in the study area.

Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Ne↗

Evaluating wildlife translocations using genomics: A bighorn sheep case study

Wildlife restoration often involves translocation efforts to reintroduce species and supplement small, fragmented populations. We examined the genomic consequences of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) translocations and population isolation to enhance understanding of evolutionary processes that affect population genetics and inform future restoration strategies. We conducted a population genomic analysis of 511 bighorn sheep from 17 areas, including native and reintroduced populations that received 0–10 translocations. Using the Illumina High Density Ovine array, we generated datasets of 6,155 to 33,289 single nucleotide polymorphisms and completed clustering, population tree, and kinship analyses. Our analyses determined that natural gene flow did not occur between most populations, including two pairs of native herds that had past connectivity. We synthesized genomic evidence across analyses to evaluate 24 different translocation events and detected eight successful reintroductions (i.e., lack of signal for recolonization from nearby populations) and five successful augmentations (i.e., reproductive success of translocated individuals) based on genetic similarity with the source populations. A single native population founded six of the reintroduced herds, suggesting that environmental conditions did not need to match for populations to persist following reintroduction. Augmentations consisting of 18–57 animals including males and females succeeded, whereas augmentations of two males did not result in a detectable genetic signature. Our results provide insight on genomic distinctiveness of native and reintroduced herds, information on the relative success of reintroduction and augmentation efforts and their associated attributes, and guidance to enhance genetic contribution of augmentations and reintroductions to aid in bighorn sheep restoration.

Montana, Idaho, Wyoming↗