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USGS2012

Characterizing post-drainage succession in Thermokarst Lake Basins on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska with TerraSAR-X Backscatter and Landsat-based NDVI data

Drained thermokarst lake basins accumulate significant amounts of soil organic carbon in the form of peat, which is of interest to understanding carbon cycling and climate change feedbacks associated with thermokarst in the Arctic. Remote sensing is a tool useful for understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of drained basins. In this study, we tested the application of high-resolution X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data of the German TerraSAR-X satellite from the 2009 growing season (July–September) for characterizing drained thermokarst lake basins of various age in the ice-rich permafrost region of the northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska. To enhance interpretation of patterns identified in X-band SAR for these basins, we also analyzed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from a Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper image acquired on July 2009 and compared both X-band SAR and NDVI data with observations of basin age. We found significant logarithmic relationships between (a) TerraSAR-X backscatter and basin age from 0 to 10,000 years, (b) Landat-5 TM NDVI and basin age from 0 to 10,000 years, and (c) TerraSAR-X backscatter and basin age from 50 to 10,000 years. NDVI was a better indicator of basin age over a period of 0–10,000 years. However, TerraSAR-X data performed much better for discriminating radiocarbon-dated basins (50–10,000 years old). No clear relationships were found for either backscatter or NDVI and basin age from 0 to 50 years. We attribute the decreasing trend of backscatter and NDVI with increasing basin age to post-drainage changes in the basin surface. Such changes include succession in vegetation, soils, hydrology, and renewed permafrost aggradation, ground ice accumulation and localized frost heave. Results of this study show the potential application of X-band SAR data in combination with NDVI data to map long-term succession dynamics of drained thermokarst lake basins.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

The Snowmastodon Project

Studies of terrestrial biotic and environmental dynamics of the last interglacial period, Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5, provide insight into the effects of long-term climate change on Pleistocene ecosystems. In North America, however, there are relatively few fossil sites that definitively date to MIS 5. Even fewer contain multiple ecosystem components (vertebrates, invertebrates, plants) that have been studied in detail, and none are located at high elevation. Thus, our view of North American ecosystems during MIS 5 is, at best, an incomplete composite view, and alpine ecosystems are entirely undocumented. The Ziegler Reservoir fossil site allows us to begin filling these gaps. Discovered on October 14, 2010 by a construction crew while enlarging a small reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA), the site is situated high in the Rocky Mountains at an elevation of ~ 2705 m. Initial excavations exposed a series of stacked fossil ecosystems, including abundant faunal and floral components. Subsequent work revealed an exceptionally diverse biota composed of nearly 6000 large bones of late Pleistocene megafauna, including mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, horses, camels, deer, bison, black bear, coyotes, and big horn sheep. This collection is complemented by more than 200 bones from at least 40 species of small animals including otters, muskrats, minks, rabbits, beavers, frogs, lizards, snakes, fish, and birds, and more than 20,000 salamander bones. Geomorphic evidence and multiple dating techniques show that the small, ridge-top basin containing the site was formed by a lateral lobe of a valley glacier that filled, and ultimately overtopped, the Snowmass Creek drainage during the Bull Lake glaciation (MIS 6). When the glacier receded, a lake that occupied the basin began to fill slowly with what is hypothesized to be eolian sediment and occasional input from slope failures of the impounding moraine. As sedimentation continued, the lake transformed first into a shallow pond, then a marsh, and later an alpine meadow. In all, the Ziegler Reservoir sedimentary record spans the time encompassed by the end of MIS 6, all of MIS 5 and MIS 4, and the earliest part of MIS 3. MIS 5e, which is considered to be the peak warmth of the last interglacial period, is especially well represented. Preservation of organic material at the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site is exceptional. Even after more than 100,000 years of burial, sedge and willow leaves were still green, mollusks and gastropods showed color, beetle parts remained iridescent, fossil conifer cones were intact, and an entire beach of 20-meter-long driftwood logs was found intact. The exquisite preservation allowed for detailed analysis of pollen, plant macrofossils, conifer cones, and fossil wood, as well as insects, chironomids, mollusks, ostracodes, and other invertebrates — all in addition to the spectacular faunal remains. This special volume of Quaternary Research represents a comprehensive scientific report of “The Snowmastodon Project,” as the investigations at the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site came to be known. Summarizing the work of scientists from more than 20 institutions, the volume details the environments in which the animals lived, provides insight into how they died, and forms the foundation of our understanding of alpine ecosystem dynamics during the last interglacial period in the Rocky Mountains.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2014

Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ 2 H, δ 18 O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply will be affected if regional atmospheric dynamics change trade- wind orographic rainfall patterns in the Caribbean.

Luquillo Mountains↗

USGS2018

Whole-genome analysis of Mustela erminea finds that pulsed hybridization impacts evolution at high latitudes

At high latitudes, climatic shifts hypothetically initiate recurrent episodes of divergence by isolating populations in glacial refugia—ice-free regions that enable terrestrial species persistence. Upon glacial recession, populations subsequently expand and often come into contact with other independently diverging populations, resulting in gene flow. To understand how recurrent periods of isolation and contact may have impacted evolution at high latitudes, we investigated introgression dynamics in the stoat ( Mustela erminea ), a Holarctic mammalian carnivore, using whole-genome sequences. We identify two spatio-temporally distinct episodes of introgression coincident with large-scale climatic shifts: contemporary introgression in a mainland contact zone and ancient contact ~200 km south of the contemporary zone, in the archipelagos along North America’s North Pacific Coast. Repeated episodes of gene flow highlight the central role of cyclic climates in structuring high-latitude diversity, through refugial divergence and introgressive hybridization. When introgression is followed by allopatric isolation (e.g., insularization) it may ultimately expedite divergence.

Communications Biology↗

USGS2006

Demographic patterns of postfire regeneration in Mediterranean-climate shrublands of California

This study uses detailed demographic data to determine the extent to which functional groupings, based on seedling recruitment and resprouting response to fire, capture the dynamics of postfire responses and early successional change in fire-prone ecosystems. Following massive wildfires in southern California, USA, we sampled chaparral and sage scrub vegetation in nested 0.1-ha plots from 90 sites for five postfire years. Prefire density of woody skeletons and cover and density of all postfire species were recorded. Functional types of postfire obligate seeder, facultative seeder, and obligate resprouter are broadly useful but fail to capture much of the dynamics of postfire succession in these shrublands. For the woody flora, stratifying these three regeneration modes by life-form captures important differences. Postfire obligate-seeding shrubs exhibit a single postfire seedling cohort whereas the faster growing suffrutescent species reach reproductive maturity by the second year and produce multiple seedling cohorts. Postfire obligate-resprouting shrubs reach reproductive maturity early but have very limited seedling recruitment in the early postfire years, whereas obligate-resprouting subshrubs flower the first year from resprouts and have seedling recruitment pulses in the second and subsequent postfire years. For the rich herbaceous flora, further subdivisions are needed to capture the range of variation. Herbaceous perennials are nearly all postfire obligate resprouters, and there are important demographic differences during early succession in different growth forms such as geophytes and rhizomatous grasses. Annuals lack resprouting ability and are postfire obligate seeders. Some exhibit extreme life-history specialization and are present only in the immediate postfire year(s). Others are highly specialized on fire but persist during early succession, and still others are opportunistic species widely distributed on open sites but can expand their populations during early succession. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2016

Decadal shifts in grass and woody plant cover are driven by prolonged drying and modified by topo‐edaphic properties

Woody plant encroachment and overall declines in perennial vegetation in dryland regions can alter ecosystem properties and indicate land degradation, but the causes of these shifts remain controversial. Determining how changes in the abundance and distribution of grass and woody plants are influenced by conditions that regulate water availability at a regional scale provides a baseline to compare how management actions alter the composition of these vegetation types at a more local scale and can be used to predict future shifts under climate change. Using a remote‐sensing‐based approach, we assessed the balance between grasses and woody plants and how climate and topo‐edaphic conditions affected their abundances across the northern Sonoran Desert from 1989 to 2009. Despite widespread woody plant encroachment in this region over the last 150 years, we found that leguminous trees, including mesquite ( Prosopis spp.), declined in cover in areas with prolonged drying conditions during the early 21st century. Creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata ) also had moderate decreases with prolonged drying but was buffered from changes on soils with low clay that promote infiltration and high available water capacity that allows for retention of water at depth. Perennial grasses have expanded and contracted over the last two decades in response to summer precipitation and were especially dynamic on shallow soils with high clay that have large fluctuations in water availability. Our results suggest that topo‐edaphic properties can amplify or ameliorate climate‐induced changes in woody plants and perennial grasses. Understanding these relationships has important implications for ecosystem function under climate change in the southwestern USA and can inform management efforts to regulate grass and woody plant abundances.

Arizona↗

USGS2017

The Beringian coevolution project: Holistic collections of mammals and associated parasites reveal novel perspectives on evolutionary and environmental change in the North

The Beringian Coevolution Project (BCP), a field program underway in the high northern latitudes since 1999, has focused on building key scientific infrastructure for integrated specimen-based studies on mammals and their associated parasites. BCP has contributed new insights across temporal and spatial scales into how ancient climate and environmental change have shaped faunas, emphasizing processes of assembly, persistence, and diversification across the vast Beringian region. BCP collections also represent baseline records of biotic diversity from across the northern high latitudes at a time of accelerated environmental change. These specimens and associated data form an unmatched resource for identifying hidden diversity, interpreting past responses to climate oscillations, documenting contemporary conditions, and anticipating outcomes for complex biological systems in a regime of ecological perturbation. Because of its dual focus on hosts and parasites, the BCP record also provides a foundation for comparative analyses that can document the effects of dynamic change on the geographic distribution, transmission dynamics, and emergence of pathogens. By using specific examples from carnivores, shrews, lagomorphs, rodents and their associated parasites, we demonstrate how broad, integrated field collections provide permanent infrastructure that informs policy decisions regarding human impact and the effect of climate change on natural populations.

Arctic Science↗

USGS2017

Characterizing sources of uncertainty from global climate models and downscaling techniques

In recent years climate model experiments have been increasingly oriented towards providing information that can support local and regional adaptation to the expected impacts of anthropogenic climate change. This shift has magnified the importance of downscaling as a means to translate coarse-scale global climate model (GCM) output to a finer scale that more closely matches the scale of interest. Applying this technique, however, introduces a new source of uncertainty into any resulting climate model ensemble. Here we present a method, based on a previously established variance decomposition method, to partition and quantify the uncertainty in climate model ensembles that is attributable to downscaling. We apply the method to the Southeast U.S. using five downscaled datasets that represent both statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques. The combined ensemble is highly fragmented, in that only a small portion of the complete set of downscaled GCMs and emission scenarios are typically available. The results indicate that the uncertainty attributable to downscaling approaches ~20% for large areas of the Southeast U.S. for precipitation and ~30% for extreme heat days (> 35°C) in the Appalachian Mountains. However, attributable quantities are significantly lower for time periods when the full ensemble is considered but only a sub-sample of all models are available, suggesting that overconfidence could be a serious problem in studies that employ a single set of downscaled GCMs. We conclude with recommendations to advance the design of climate model experiments so that the uncertainty that accrues when downscaling is employed is more fully and systematically considered.

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology↗

USGS2025

Assessing causes and consequences of winter surface water dynamics in California’s Central Valley using satellite remote sensing

California's Central Valley is increasingly vulnerable to winter floods. A comprehensive spatial baseline of flood extents is critical for inundation analyses that can enhance future flood predictions, but cloud cover has prevented the regular observation of surface water extents with optical satellite imagery. In this study, we leveraged the daily resolution of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data to create a continuous series of monthly Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWEmod) images across the Central Valley from January 2003 to January 2023. We used the timeseries to assess the climatic driving forces of winter (Oct–April) surface water variability at sub-basin and pixel scales. At the sub-basin scale, we evaluated the influences of winter precipitation, occurrence of atmospheric rivers, and antecedent soil moisture on monthly surface water extents and found that the greatest correspondence occurs in mid-winter (Dec–Feb); in contrast, non-precipitation drivers such as water management play a stronger role in autumn and spring. The pixel-level analysis identified the probabilities of precipitation-driven surface water occurrences in the Sacramento basin are highest along rivers, conveyance channels, and floodways, with higher probabilities under wetter antecedent soil moisture conditions. Precipitation-driven surface water occurrences are also common in leveed areas and outside flood boundaries designated by state and federal agencies where exposure of structures to inundation was larger in terms of their value. Finally, areas with more frequent precipitation-driven flooding have poor recharge potential but are commonly within 5 km of areas classified as having good potential. This study demonstrates a novel approach for exploring the utility of MODIS for understanding surface water dynamics in mid-winter, a period characterized by peak precipitation, flood risk, and surface water extent. This information can provide valuable insights for (1) assessing flood risks for infrastructure and populations, (2) identifying areas most suited to strategic water management investments to increase recharge, and (3) analyzing precipitation thresholds that trigger flooding to allow proactive water management strategies to minimize damage and maximize recharge.

California↗

USGS2016

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Common use herbicides increase wetland greenhouse gas emissions

Wetlands play a disproportionate role in the global climate as major sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. Herbicides are the most heavily used agrochemicals and are frequently detected in aquatic ecosystems, with glyphosate and 2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D), representing the two most commonly used worldwide. In recent years, these herbicides are being used in mixtures to combat herbicide-tolerant noxious weeds. While it is well documented that herbicide use for agriculture is expected to increase, their indirect effects on wetland greenhouse gas dynamics are virtually unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted a factorial microcosm experiment using low, medium, and high concentrations of glyphosate or 2,4-D, individually and in combination to investigate their effects on wetland methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide fluxes. We predicted that mixed herbicide treatments would have a synergistic effect on greenhouse gases compared to individual herbicides. Our results showed that carbon dioxide flux rates and cumulative emissions significantly increased from both individual and mixed herbicide treatments, whereas methane and nitrous oxide dynamics were less affected. This study suggests that extensive use of glyphosate and 2,4-D may increase carbon dioxide emissions from wetlands, which could have implications for climate change.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2003

Importance of a stochastic distribution of floods and erosion thresholds in the bedrock river incision problem

Fluvial erosion of bedrock occurs during occasional flood events when boundary shear stress exceeds a critical threshold to initiate incision. Therefore efforts to model the evolution of topography over long timescales should include an erosion threshold and should be driven by a stochastic distribution of erosive events. However, most bedrock incision models ignore the threshold as a second‐order detail. In addition, climate is poorly represented in most landscape evolution models, so the quantitative relationship between erosion rate and measurable climatic variables has been elusive. Here we show that the presence of an erosion threshold, when combined with a well‐constrained, probabilistic model of storm and flood occurrence, has first‐order implications for the dynamics of river incision in tectonically active areas. First, we make a direct calculation of the critical shear stress required to pluck bedrock blocks for a field site in New York. Second, we apply a recently proposed stochastic, threshold, bedrock incision model to a series of streams in California, with known tectonic and climatic forcing. Previous work in the area has identified a weak relationship between channel gradient or relief and rock uplift rate that is not easily explained by simpler detachment‐limited models. The results with the stochastic threshold model show that even low erosion thresholds, which are exceeded in steep channels during high‐frequency flood events, fundamentally affect the predicted relationship between gradient and uplift rate in steady state rivers, in a manner consistent with the observed topography. This correspondence between theory and data is, however, nonunique; models in which a thin alluvial cover may act to inhibit channel incision in the low uplift rate zone also provide plausible explanations for the observed topography. Third, we explore the broader implications of the stochastic threshold model to the development of fluvial topography in active tectonic settings. We suggest that continued field applications of geomorphic models, including physically meaningful thresholds and stochastic climate distributions, are required to advance our knowledge of interactions among surficial, climatic, and crustal processes.

California↗

USGS2015

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2013

U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center strategic science plan, 2013--18

The Department of the Interior (DOI) recognizes and embraces the unprecedented challenges of maintaining our Nation’s rich natural and cultural resources in the 21st century. The magnitude of these challenges demands that the conservation community work together to develop integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies that collectively address the impacts of climate change and other landscape-scale stressors. On September 14, 2009, DOI Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010) entitled, “Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America’s Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources.” The Order establishes the foundation for two partner-based conservation science entities to address these unprecedented challenges: Climate Science Centers (CSCs and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase understanding of climate change and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. Eight CSCs have been established and are managed through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC); each CSC works in close collaboration with their neighboring CSCs, as well as those across the Nation, to ensure the best and most efficient science is produced. The South Central CSC was established in 2012 through a cooperative agreement with the University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, the Chickasaw Nation, the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab; hereafter termed the ”Consortium” of the South Central CSC. The Consortium has a broad expertise in the physical, biological, natural, and social sciences to address impacts of climate change on land, water, fish and wildlife, ocean, coastal, and cultural resources. The South Central CSC will provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change, actively engaging LCCs and other partners in translating science into management decisions. This document is the first Strategic Science Plan for the South Central CSC (2013-18). Using the January 2011 DOI guidance as a model, this document (1) describes the role and interactions of the South Central CSC among partners and stakeholders including Federal, State, and non-governmental organizations throughout the region; (2) describes a concept of what the center will provide to its partners; (3) defines a context for climate impacts in the south central United States; and (4) establishes the science priorities the center will address through research. Science priorities are currently organized as immediate or future research needs; however, this document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change and as scientific work progresses.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Miocene phosphatization of rocks from the summit of Rio Grande Rise, Southwest Atlantic Ocean

Marine phosphorites are an important part of the oceanic phosphorus cycle and are related to the effects of long-term global climate changes. We use petrography, mineralogy, rare earth elements contents, and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr-determined carbonate fluorapatite (CFA) and calcite ages to investigate the paragenesis and history of phosphatization of carbonate sediments, limestones, ferromanganese crusts, and ironstones from the summit of Rio Grande Rise (RGR), Southwest Atlantic Ocean. Phosphatization of all the rock types occurred throughout the Miocene from 20.2 to 6.8 million years ago (Ma), and occasionally during the Quaternary, mainly through the cementation of carbonate sediments by cryptocrystalline CFA, likely involving the dissolution of the smaller size fraction of foraminifera-nannofossil ooze. Porosity/permeability and abundance of fine calcite material were important factors determining the intensity of phosphatization of the various rock types. Phosphatization was initiated during a transition to a more dynamic circulation system in the South Atlantic Ocean, which remobilized phosphorus from deeper waters and increased primary productivity that culminated with the middle-Miocene Climatic Optimum between ∼17 and 14.8 Ma. The relatively shallow-water depth of RGR summit during the Miocene provided proximity to the oxygen minimum zone, a reservoir for reactive phosphorus, especially during periods of enhanced phosphorus cycling spurred by surface primary productivity. The cessation of phosphatization at RGR resulted from a rapidly cooling and dry climate that characterized the Miocene-Pliocene transition. Our results support previous observations that periods of broadly intensified ocean circulation and local hydrodynamic changes were the key paleoceanographic links to phosphorite formation.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗

USGS2026

Microclimate mediates the strength and direction of avian biotic interactions

Theory predicts that that the strength and direction of species interactions can shift from being competitive in benign environments toward being facilitative in stressful environments. However, the environmental context dependency of species interactions has rarely been tested in animal communities. We capitalized on a 15-year, landscape-scale dataset, collected annually in a relatively stable old-growth forest environment to test the long-held hypothesis that the strength and direction of species interactions might be mediated by climatic conditions. It is generally accepted that competitive and facilitative interactions drive the distributions of many species. Using multi-species dynamic occupancy models applied to long-term data, we tested whether annual settlement by bird species could affect either the persistence or settlement by other phylogenetically related species, and whether these interactions are mediated by microclimate. We found that species interactions were influenced by microclimate for some, but not all avian species pairs. Related species pairs more often showed settlement dynamics that were indicative of attraction rather than repulsion. In some cases, competitive interactions at warmer microclimates flipped to become facilitative in colder ones. However, the reverse was also true: facilitative interactions amplified for some species under warm conditions. Furthermore, species pairs that were closely related were more likely to exhibit competitive relationships along at least part of the microclimatic gradient. Our results highlight the importance of using long-term data to incorporate competitive and facilitative interactions into species distribution models and support the notion that the strength and direction of species interactions can be dependent on microclimatic environmental conditions.

Oregon↗

USGS2012

Threshold effects of flood duration on the vegetation and soils of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

Most large rivers have experienced major changes in hydrology and land use over the past century, with concomitant effects on sedimentation, nutrient cycling and biodiversity. To restore and/or enhance these ecosystems, managers need to know where their efforts are most likely to succeed under current hydrologic regimes as well as under potential future hydrologic regimes. We therefore examined changes in forest vegetation and soils across a hydrologic gradient, expressed as flood duration during the growing season, for 320 km of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Soil texture was highly variable but trended toward finer grained sediments and >5% organic matter as flood duration increased from 0% to ~40% of the growing season. Beyond 40%, soil texture was exclusively silt plus clay with >5% organic matter. The diversity of both the understory and overstory tree communities was also highly variable at sites that flooded for <40% of the growing season. However, understory diversity decreased as flood duration increased from 0% to ~25% of the growing season and overstory diversity declined as flood duration increased from 0% to ~40% of the growing season. Diversity estimates for both strata were uniformly low at sites that flooded for longer than ~40% of the growing season. Beyond this point the proportional abundance of Acer saccharinum in the overstory exceeded 70%. Our results suggest that there is a threshold along the elevation gradient of this floodplain, corresponding with flood durations lasting ~40% of the growing season. At lower elevation sites, flooding exerts primary control over forest soils and vegetation, restricting the former to silt plus clay with higher organic matter and the latter to a few highly flood tolerant species. The existence of such thresholds have implications for management of floodplain soil nutrient dynamics and plant diversity under existing hydrologic regimes, more natural hydrologic regimes and more extreme hydrologic regimes that may result from climate change.

Iowa;Minnesota;Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

A river basin spatial model to quantitively advance understanding of riverine tree response dynamics to water availability and hydrological management

Ecological condition continues to decline in arid and semi-arid river basins globally due to hydrological over-abstraction combined with changing climatic conditions. Whilst provision of water for the environment has been a primary approach to alleviate ecological decline, how to accurately monitor changes in riverine trees at fine spatial and temporal scales, remains a substantial challenge. This is further complicated by constantly changing water availability across expansive river basins with varying climatic zones. Within, we combine rare, fine-scale, high frequency temporal in-situ field collected data with machine learning and remote sensing, to provide a robust model that enables broadscale monitoring of physiological tree water stress response to environmental changes via actual evapotranspiration (ET). Physiological variation of Eucalyptus camaldulensis (River Red Gum) and E. largiflorens (Black Box) trees across 10 study locations in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, was captured instantaneously using sap flow sensors, substantially reducing tree response lags encountered by monitoring visual canopy changes. Actual ET measurement of both species was used to bias correct a national spatial ET product where a Random Forest model was trained using continuous timeseries of in-situ data of up to four years. Precise monthly AMLETT ( A ustralia-wide M achine L earning ET for T rees) ET outputs in 30 m pixel resolution from 2012 to 2021, were derived by incorporating additional remote sensing layers such as soil moisture, land surface temperature, radiation and EVI and NDVI in the Random Forest model. Landsat and Sentinal-2 correlation results between in-situ ET and AMLETT ET returned R 2 of 0.94 (RMSE 6.63 mm period −1 ) and 0.92 (RMSE 6.89 mm period −1 ), respectively. In comparison, correlation between in-situ ET and a national ET product returned R 2 of 0.44 (RMSE 34.08 mm period −1 ) highlighting the need for bias correction to generate accurate absolute ET values. The AMLETT method presented here, enhances environmental management in river basins worldwide. Such robust broadscale monitoring can inform water accounting and importantly, assist decisions on where to prioritize water for the environment to restore and protect key ecological assets and preserve floodplain and riparian ecological function.

The Journal of Environmental Management↗