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USGS2016

Changing times, changing stories: Generational differences in climate change perspectives from four remote indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska

Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation research; however, the cultural dimensions of climate change are equally important because cultural dimensions inform perceptions of risk. Furthermore, many Arctic and Subarctic IK climate change studies document observations of change and knowledge of the elders and older generations in a community, but few include the perspectives of the younger population. These observations by elders and older generations form a historical baseline record of weather and climate observations in these regions. However, many indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities are composed of primarily younger residents. We focused on the differences in the cultural dimensions of climate change found between young adults and elders. We outlined the findings from interviews conducted in four indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska. The findings revealed that (1) intergenerational observations of change were common among interview participants in all four communities, (2) older generations observed more overall change than younger generations interviewed by us, and (3) how change was perceived varied between generations. We defined “observations” as the specific examples of environmental and weather change that were described, whereas “perceptions” referred to the manner in which these observations of change were understood and contextualized by the interview participants. Understanding the differences in generational observations and perceptions of change are key issues in the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Alaska↗

USGS2006

2005 annual progress report: Elk and bison grazing ecology in the Great Sand Dunes complex of lands

In 2000 the U.S. Congress authorized the expansion of the former Great Sand Dunes National Monument by establishing a new Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve in its place, and establishing the Baca National Wildlife Refuge. The establishment of Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve and the new Baca National Wildlife Refuge in the San Luis Valley (SLV), Colorado was one of the most significant land conservation actions in the western U.S. in recent years. The action was a result of cooperation between the National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), U.S. Forest Service (USDA-FS), and The Nature Conservancy (TNC). The new national park, when fully implemented, will consist of 107,265 acres, the new national preserve 41,872 acres, and the new national wildlife refuge (USFWS lands) 92,180 acres (fig. 1). The area encompassed by this designation protects a number of natural wonders and features including a unique ecosystem of natural sand dunes, the entire watershed of surface and groundwaters that are necessary to preserve and recharge the dunes and adjacent wetlands, a unique stunted forest, and other valuable riparian vegetation communities that support a host of associated wildlife and bird species. When the National Park was initially established, there were concerns about overconcentrations and impacts on native plant communities of the unhunted segments of a large and possibly growing elk (Cervus elaphus) population. This led to the designation of the Preserve as a compromise solution, where the elk could be harvested. The Preserve Unit, however, will not address all the ungulate management challenges. In order to reduce the current elk population, harvests of elk may need to be aggressive. But aggressive special hunts of elk to achieve population reductions can result in elk avoidance of certain areas or elk seeking refuge in areas where they cannot be hunted, while removals of whole herd segments and abandonment or alterations of migration routes can occur (Smith and Robbins, 1994; Boyce and others, 1991). Elk may seek refuge from hunting in the newly expanded Park Unit and TNC lands where they might overconcentrate and impact unique vegetation communities. In these sites of refugia, or preferred loafing sites, elk and bison could accelerate a decline in woody riparian shrubs and trees. This decline may also be due to changes in hydrology, climatic, or dunal processes, but ungulate herbivory might exacerbate the effects of those processes. To address the questions and needs of local resource managers, a multi-agency research project was initiated in 2005 to study the ecology, forage relations, and habitat relations of elk and bison in the Great Sand Dunes–Sangre de Cristo–Baca complex of lands. Meetings and discussions of what this research should include were started in 2001 with representatives from NPS, USFWS, TNC, the Colorado Division of Wildlife (CDOW), and USDA-FS/BLM. The final study plan was successfully funded in 2004 with research scheduled to start in 2005. The research was designed to encompass three major study elements: (1) animal movements and population dynamics, (2) vegetation and nutrient effects from ungulate herbivory, and (3) development of ecological models, using empirical data collected from the first two components, that will include estimates of elk carrying capacity and management scenarios for resource managers.

Colorado↗

USGS2011

Late Pliocene and Quaternary Eurasian locust infestations in the Canary Archipelago

The Canary Archipelago has long been a sensitive location to record climate changes of the past. Interbedded with its basalt lavas are marine deposits from the principal Pleistocene interglacials, as well as aeolian sands with intercalated palaeosols. The palaeosols contain African dust and innumerable relict egg pods of a temperate‐region locust (cf. Dociostaurus maroccanus Thunberg 1815 ). New ecological and stratigraphical information reveals the geological history of locust plagues (or infestations) and their palaeoclimatic significance. Here, we show that the first arrival of the plagues to the Canary Islands from Africa took place near the end of the Pliocene, ca. 3 Ma, and reappeared with immense strength during the middle Late Pleistocene preceding MIS (marine isotope stage) 11 (ca. 420 ka), MIS 5.5 (ca. 125 ka) and probably during other warm interglacials of the late Middle Pleistocene and the Late Pleistocene. During the Early Holocene, locust plagues may have coincided with a brief cool period in the current interglacial. Climatically, locust plagues on the Canaries are a link in the chain of full‐glacial arid–cold climate (calcareous dunes), early interglacial arid–sub‐humid climate (African dust inputs and locust plagues), peak interglacial warm–humid climate (marine deposits with Senegalese fauna), transitional arid–temperate climate (pedogenic calcretes), and again full‐glacial arid–cold climate (calcareous dunes) oscillations. During the principal interglacials of the Pleistocene, the Canary Islands recorded the migrations of warm Senegalese marine faunas to the north, crossing latitudes in the Euro‐African Atlantic. However, this northward marine faunal migration was preceded in the terrestrial realm by interglacial infestations of locusts.

Lethaia↗

USGS2017

Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature, and salinity

Increasing global CO 2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10 −4 pH units year −1 , and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10 −4 pH units year −1 . The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2022

Laysan albatross exhibit complex behavioral plasticity in the subtropical and subarctic North Pacific Ocean

Animals that regularly traverse habitat extremes between the subtropics and subarctic are expected to exhibit foraging behaviors that respond to changes in dynamic ocean habitats, and these behaviors may facilitate adaptations to novel and changing climates. During the chick-provisioning stage, Laysan albatross Phoebastria immutabilis parents regularly undertake short- and long-distance foraging trips throughout the vast central North Pacific Ocean. We examined GPS tracking data among chick-provisioning albatrosses in Hawai‘i to characterize habitats during short- and long-distance trips. The study period encompassed a marine heatwave (2014) and the cooling period after an extreme El Niño event (2016), enabling us to examine foraging habitats under novel and changing climates. First passage time and generalized additive mixed models indicated that during 183 short and 110 long trips (n = 32 birds), wind-assisted flight efficiency, proximity to productive areas, and moonlit-searching were important in both subtropical and subarctic habitats. Laysan albatross took foraging trips that had similar lengths and durations in 2014 and 2016 and visited similar areas, indicating that their foraging range did not expand in response to climatic variability. A strategy that uses similar foraging areas across years combined with reliance on environmental processes that enhance flight efficiency (wind) and that enable searching behaviors (moonlight) indicate that Laysan albatross exhibit complex behavioral plasticity that allows them to utilize subtropical and subarctic habitats affected by dynamic climate variability. This strategy may benefit their ability to respond to oceanographic and climatic change, including expanding warm water regions and changing atmospheric conditions influenced by global warming.

Alaska, Hawaii↗

USGS2016

Characterizing changes in streamflow and sediment supply in the Sacramento River Basin, California, using hydrological simulation program—FORTRAN (HSPF)

A daily watershed model of the Sacramento River Basin of northern California was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the San Francisco Bay-Delta. To compensate for sparse data, a unique combination of model inputs was developed, including meteorological variables, potential evapotranspiration, and parameters defining hydraulic geometry. A slight decreasing trend of sediment loads and concentrations was statistically significant in the lowest 50% of flows, supporting the observed historical sediment decline. Historical changes in climate, including seasonality and decline of snowpack, contribute to changes in streamflow, and are a significant component describing the mechanisms responsible for the decline in sediment. Several wet and dry hypothetical climate change scenarios with temperature changes of 1.5 °C and 4.5 °C were applied to the base historical conditions to assess the model sensitivity of streamflow and sediment to changes in climate. Of the scenarios evaluated, sediment discharge for the Sacramento River Basin increased the most with increased storm magnitude and frequency and decreased the most with increases in air temperature, regardless of changes in precipitation. The model will be used to develop projections of potential hydrologic and sediment trends to the Bay-Delta in response to potential future climate scenarios, which will help assess the hydrological and ecological health of the Bay-Delta into the next century.

California↗

USGS2003

The sedimentary record of climatic and anthropogenic influence on the Patuxent estuary and Chesapeake Bay ecosystems

Ecological and paleoecological studies from the Patuxent River mouth reveal dynamic variations in benthic ostracode assemblages over the past 600 years due to climatic and anthropogenic factors. Prior to the late 20th century, centennial-scale changes in species dominance were influenced by climatic and hydrological factors that primarily affected salinity and at times led to oxygen depletion. Decadal-scale droughts also occurred resulting in higher salinities and migration of ostracode species from the deep channel (Loxoconcha sp., Cytheromorpha newportensis) into shallower water along the flanks of the bay. During the 19th century the abundance of Leptocythere nikraveshae and Perissocytheridea brachyforma suggest increased turbidity and decreased salinity. Unprecedented changes in benthic ostracodes at the Patuxent mouth and in the deep channel of the bay occurred after the 1960s when Cytheromorpha curta became the dominant species, reflecting seasonal anoxia. The change in benthic assemblages coincided with the appearance of deformities in foraminifers. A combination of increased nitrate loading due to greater fertilizer use and increased freshwater flow explains this shift. A review of the geochemical and paleoecological evidence for dissolved oxygen indicates that seasonal oxygen depletion in the main channel of Chesapeake Bay varies over centennial and decadal timescales. Prior to 1700 AD, a relatively wet climate and high freshwater runoff led to oxygen depletion but rarely anoxia. Between 1700 and 1900, progressive eutrophication occurred related to land dearance and increased sedimentation, but this was superimposed on the oscillatory pattern of oxygen depletion most likely driven by climatological and hydrological factors. It also seems probable that the four- to five-fold increase in sedimentation due to agricultural and timber activity could have contributed to an increased natural nutrient load, likely fueling the early periods (1700-1900) of hypoxla prior to widespread fertilizer use. Twentieth-century anoxia worsened in the late 1930s-1940s and again around 1970, reaching unprecedented levels in the past few decades. Decadal and interannual variability in oxygen depletion even in the 20th century is still strongly influenced by climatic processes influencing precipitation and freshwater runoff.

Estuaries↗

USGS2011

Aeolian and fluvial processes in dryland regions: The need for integrated studies

Aeolian and fluvial processes play a fundamental role in dryland regions of the world and have important environmental and ecological consequences from local to global scales. Although both processes operate over similar spatial and temporal scales and are likely strongly coupled in many dryland systems, aeolian and fluvial processes have traditionally been studied separately, making it difficult to assess their relative importance in drylands, as well as their potential for synergistic interaction. Land degradation by accelerated wind and water erosion is a major problem throughout the world's drylands, and although recent studies suggest that these processes likely interact across broad spatial and temporal scales to amplify the transport of soil resources from and within drylands, many researchers and land managers continue to view them as separate and unrelated processes. Here, we illustrate how aeolian and fluvial sediment transport is coupled at multiple spatial and temporal scales and highlight the need for these interrelated processes to be studied from a more integrated perspective that crosses traditional disciplinary boundaries. Special attention is given to how the growing threat of climate change and land‐use disturbance will influence linkages between aeolian and fluvial processes in the future. We also present emerging directions for interdisciplinary needs within the aeolian and fluvial research communities that call for better integration across a broad range of traditional disciplines such as ecology, biogeochemistry, agronomy, and soil conservation.

California↗

USGS2020

Movement ecology and habitat use differences in Black Scoters wintering along the Atlantic coast

For migratory species such as Black Scoters ( Melanitta americana ) whose range encompasses a variety of habitats, it is especially important to obtain habitat use information across the species’ range to better understand anthropogenic threats, e.g., marine development and climate change. The objective of our study was to investigate the winter movement patterns and habitat use of Black Scoters in the Atlantic Ocean by quantifying the following key movement indices: number of wintering sites, arrival and departure dates to and from the wintering grounds, days at a wintering site, area of a wintering site, distance between wintering sites, and differences in habitat features of wintering sites. We also tested if winter movement patterns varied by sex or along a latitudinal gradient. To quantify winter movement patterns of Black Scoters, we used satellite telemetry data from 2009 to 2012 (n = 29 tagged females and 15 males for a total of 66 winter seasons, 38 female winter seasons, 28 male winter seasons). Our results indicated that the average wintering site area and distance between wintering sites varied with latitude. Wintering sites located at southern latitudes were larger and further apart than wintering sites located at more northern latitudes. Additionally, wintering sites varied in bathymetry, distance to shore, and the slope of the ocean floor at different latitudes; northern wintering sites were in deeper waters, closer to shore, and on steeper slopes than southern wintering sites. Our results suggest that habitat use may differ by latitude, indicating that habitats used in northern locations may not be representative of habitats used in more southern wintering areas. Understanding variation of habitat use along a latitudinal gradient will enable managers to focus sampling effort for Black Scoter abundance and distribution along the Atlantic coast and provide insight on the wintering ecology and movement of Black Scoters.

Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maryland,↗

USGS2022

The impacts of mangrove range expansion on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States: Current understanding, knowledge gaps, and emerging research needs

Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influences whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the ecological and societal benefits that salt marshes and mangroves provide, coastal environmental managers are challenged to anticipate effects of mangrove expansion on critical wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation. Mangrove range expansion may also affect wetland stability in the face of extreme climatic events and rising sea levels. Here, we review current understanding of the effects of mangrove range expansion and displacement of salt marshes on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States. We also identify critical knowledge gaps and emerging research needs regarding the ecological and societal implications of salt marsh displacement by expanding mangrove forests. One consistent theme throughout our review is that there are ecological trade-offs for consideration by coastal managers. Mangrove expansion and marsh displacement can produce beneficial changes in some ecosystem services, while simultaneously producing detrimental changes in other services. Thus, there can be local-scale differences in perceptions of the impacts of mangrove expansion into salt marshes. For very specific local reasons, some individuals may see mangrove expansion as a positive change to be embraced, while others may see mangrove expansion as a negative change to be constrained.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2024

Seasonal drought treatments impact plant and microbial uptake of nitrogen in a mixed shrub grassland on the Colorado Plateau

For many drylands, both long- and short-term drought conditions can accentuate landscape heterogeneity at both temporal (e.g., role of seasonal patterns) and spatial (e.g., patchy plant cover) scales. Furthermore, short-term drought conditions occurring over one season can exacerbate long-term, multidecadal droughts or aridification, by limiting soil water recharge, decreasing plant growth, and altering biogeochemical cycles. Here, we examine how experimentally altered seasonal precipitation regimes in a mixed shrub grassland on the Colorado Plateau impact soil moisture, vegetation, and carbon and nitrogen cycling. The experiment was conducted from 2015 to 2019, during a regional multidecadal drought event, and consisted of three precipitation treatments, which were implemented with removable drought shelters intercepting ~66% of incoming precipitation including: control (ambient precipitation conditions, no shelter), warm season drought (sheltered April–October), and cool season drought (sheltered November–March). To track changes in vegetation, we measured biomass of the dominant shrub, Ephedra viridis , and estimated perennial plant and ground cover in the spring and the fall. Soil moisture dynamics suggested that warm season experimental drought had longer and more consistent drought legacy effects (occurring two out of the four drought cycles) than either cool season drought or ambient conditions, even during the driest years. We also found that E. viridis biomass remained consistent across treatments, while bunchgrass cover declined by 25% by 2019 across all treatments, with the earliest declines noticeable in the warm season drought plots. Extractable dissolved inorganic nitrogen and microbial biomass nitrogen concentrations appeared sensitive to seasonal drought conditions, with dissolved inorganic nitrogen increasing and microbial biomass nitrogen decreasing with reduced soil volumetric water content. Carbon stocks were not sensitive to drought but were greater under E. viridis patches. Additionally, we found that under E. viridis , there was a negative relationship between dissolved inorganic nitrogen and microbial biomass nitrogen, suggesting that drought-induced increases in dissolved inorganic nitrogen may be due to declines in nitrogen uptake from microbes and plants alike. This work suggests that perennial grass plant–soil feedbacks are more vulnerable to both short-term (seasonal) and long-term (multiyear) drought events than shrubs, which can impact the future trajectory of dryland mixed shrub grassland ecosystems as drought frequency and intensity will likely continue to increase with ongoing climate change.

Ecology↗

USGS2013

The influence of global climate change on the scientific foundations and applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Introduction to a SETAC international workshop

This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled “The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry.” The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer the following question: How will global climate change influence the environmental impacts of chemicals and other stressors and the way we assess and manage them in the environment? While more detail is found in the complete series of articles, some key consensus points are as follows: (1) human actions (including mitigation of and adaptation to impacts of global climate change [GCC]) may have as much influence on the fate and distribution of chemical contaminants as does GCC, and modeled predictions should be interpreted cautiously; (2) climate change can affect the toxicity of chemicals, but chemicals can also affect how organisms acclimate to climate change; (3) effects of GCC may be slow, variable, and difficult to detect, though some populations and communities of high vulnerability may exhibit responses sooner and more dramatically than others; (4) future approaches to human and ecological risk assessments will need to incorporate multiple stressors and cumulative risks considering the wide spectrum of potential impacts stemming from GCC; and (5) baseline/reference conditions for estimating resource injury and restoration/rehabilitation will continually shift due to GCC and represent significant challenges to practitioners.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2025

Soil moisture partitioning between under canopy and interspace environments in shrublands of the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Soil moisture is a key link between hydrologic and ecologic processes in desert shrublands. Understanding how soil moisture is spatially distributed in desert shrublands provides valuable insights into how shrubs use and impact limiting water resources, and how shrublands may respond to future meteorological and climate change. Our goals were to determine how soil moisture is partitioned between soil volumes under canopies and in the bare soil interspaces across multiple desert shrublands, and to evaluate the roles of physical soil properties, shrub-type characteristics, meteorology, and measurement resolution in influencing and observing variation in soil moisture partitioning. Utilizing two long-term soil moisture datasets (monthly resolution, 30 years, whole soil profile measurements; and 30 min resolution, 10 years, 10–30 cm measurements), we compared soil moisture partitioning across nine northern Chihuahuan Desert shrubland sites (three sites dominated by creosotebush [ Larrea tridentata ], three by honey mesquite [ Prosopis glandulosa ], and three by tarbush [ Flourensia cernua ]) in the Jornada Basin, southern New Mexico, USA. Over 30 years, monthly, whole profile data showed that soil moisture in mesquite shrublands was consistently higher in bare soil interspaces compared to under canopies, whereas soil moisture under and between shrubs was more similar in creosotebush and tarbush shrublands. Physical soil properties were linked as explanatory variables of long-term soil moisture partitioning (monthly whole profile dataset), whereas 30-minute data showed that shorter-term periods of higher precipitation promoted greater near surface soil moisture (10–30 cm) in bare soil interspaces that was not captured at monthly time steps. Thus, although the long-term average partitioning of soil moisture in these shrublands is strongly controlled by soil physical properties, soil moisture partitioning varies at shorter timescales (daily to weekly) in response to precipitation events. Moreover, shrub-type characteristics influenced soil moisture partitioning, with dense and tall mesquite shrubs having lower under canopy soil moisture than tarbush, and root architecture potentially influencing partitioning across creosotebush sites. These results illustrate diversity in soil moisture partitioning both between and within shrublands of the northern Chihuahuan Desert, and elucidate how physical soil properties, shrub-type characteristics, and meteorological variation interact to shape their soil moisture dynamics.

New Mexico↗

USGS2018

Landscape-scale variation in canopy water content of giant sequoias during drought

Recent drought (2012–2016) caused unprecedented foliage dieback in giant sequoias ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ), a species endemic to the western slope of the southern Sierra Nevada in central California. As part of an effort to understand and map sequoia response to droughts, we studied the patterns of remotely sensed canopy water content (CWC), both within and among sequoia groves in two successive years during the drought period (2015 and 2016). Our aims were: (1) to quantify giant sequoia responses to severe drought stress at a landscape scale using CWC as an indicator of crown foliage status, and (2) to estimate the effect of environmental correlates that mediate CWC change within and among giant sequoia groves. We utilized airborne high fidelity imaging spectroscopy (HiFIS) and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data from the Carnegie Airborne Observatory to assess giant sequoia foliage status during 2015 and 2016 of the 2012–2016 droughts. A series of statistical models were generated to classify giant sequoias and to map their location in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) and vicinity. We explored the environmental correlates and the spatial patterns of CWC change at the landscape scale. The mapped CWC was highly variable throughout the landscape during the two observation years, and proved to be most closely related to geological substrates, topography, and site-specific water balance. While there was an overall net gain in sequoia CWC between 2015 and 2016, certain locations (lower elevations, steeper slopes, areas more distant from surface water sources, and areas with greater climate water deficit) showed CWC losses. In addition, we found greater CWC loss in shorter sequoias and those growing in areas with lower sequoia stem densities. Our results suggest that CWC change indicates sequoia response to droughts across landscapes. Long-term monitoring of giant sequoia CWC will likely be useful for modeling and predicting their population-level response to future climate change.

California↗

USGS2023

Widespread regeneration failure in ponderosa pine forests of the southwestern United States

As climate changes in coming decades, ponderosa pine forest persistence may be increasingly dictated by their regeneration. Sustained regeneration failure has been predicted for forests of the southwestern US (SWUS) even in absence of stand-replacing wildfire, but regeneration in undisturbed and lightly disturbed forests has been studied infrequently and at a limited number of locations. We characterized 77 ponderosa pine sites in 7 SWUS locations, documented regeneration occurring over the past ∼ "> ∼ 20 years, and utilized gridded meteorological estimates and water balance modeling to determine the climate and environmental conditions associated with regeneration failure (R0). Of these sites, 29 % "> % were R0, illuminating that regeneration failure in these forests is widespread. R0 sites were distinguished by high above- and belowground heat loading, loss of cool-season climate, and high soil moisture variation. Explanatory variables had high accuracy in identifying R0 sites, and illustrate the climate-driven pathway by which regeneration failure has occurred in the SWUS. Regeneration failure has high potential to increase in a warmer, more hydrologically variable climate, and expand regionally from lower to higher latitudes. Yet, we also found that human management interventions were associated with environmental conditions that avoided regeneration failure. To counteract regeneration-associated forest declines, interventions will need to influence climate-driven environmental change by adjusting forest characteristics at local scales. Regeneration failures are a major threat to ponderosa pine forest persistence, and they have potential to intensify and expand in a changing climate.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico↗

USGS2018

Biomonitoring using invasive species in a large Lake: Dreissena distribution maps hypoxic zones

Due to cultural eutrophication and global climate change, an exponential increase in the number and extent of hypoxic zones in marine and freshwater ecosystems has been observed in the last few decades. Hypoxia, or low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, can produce strong negative ecological impacts and, therefore, is a management concern. We measured biomass and densities of Dreissena in Lake Erie, as well as bottom DO in 2014 using 19 high frequency data loggers distributed throughout the central basin to validate a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecological lake model. We found that a deep, offshore hypoxic zone was formed by early August, restricting the Dreissena population to shallow areas of the central basin. Deeper than 20 m, where bottom hypoxia routinely develops, only young of the year mussels were found in small numbers, indicating restricted recruitment and survival of young Dreissena . We suggest that monitoring Dreissena distribution can be an effective tool for mapping the extent and frequency of hypoxia in freshwater. In addition, our results suggest that an anticipated decrease in the spatial extent of hypoxia resulting from nutrient management has the potential to increase the spatial extent of profundal habitat in the central basin available for Dreissena expansion.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2022

High-resolution 3D forest structure explains ecomorphological trait variation in assemblages of saproxylic beetles

Climate, topography and the 3D structure of forests are major drivers affecting local species communities. However, little is known about how the specific functional traits of saproxylic (wood-living) beetles, involved in the recycling of wood, might be affected by those environmental characteristics. Here, we combine ecological and morphological traits available for saproxylic beetles and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data in Bayesian trait-based joint species distribution models to study how traits drive the distributions of more than 230 species in temperate forests of Europe. We found that elevation (as a proxy for temperature and precipitation) and the proportion of conifers played important roles in species occurrences while variables related to habitat heterogeneity and forest complexity were less relevant. Furthermore, we showed that local communities were shaped by environmental variation primarily through their ecological traits whereas morphological traits were involved only marginally. As predicted, ecological traits influenced species' responses to forest structure, and to other environmental variation, with canopy niche, wood decay niche and host preference as the most important ecological traits. Conversely, no links between morphological traits and environmental characteristics were observed. Both models, however, revealed strong phylogenetic signal in species' response to environmental characteristics. These findings imply that alterations of climate and tree species composition have the potential to alter saproxylic beetle communities in temperate forests. Additionally, ecological traits help explain species' responses to environmental characteristics and thus should prove useful in predicting their responses to future change. It remains challenging, however, to link simple morphological traits to species' complex ecological niches.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS2016

Climate-induced seasonal changes in smallmouth bass growth rate potential at the southern range extent

Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater-dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g −1 day −1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g −1 day −1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g −1 day −1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g −1 day −1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end-of-century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗