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USGS2019

Bioclimatic envelopes for individual demographic events driven by extremes: Plant mortality from drought and warming

The occurrence of plant species across the globe is largely constrained by climate. Ecologists use plant-climate relationships such as bioclimatic envelopes and related niche models to determine potential environmental conditions promoting probable species occurrence. Traditionally bioclimatic envelopes either exclude disturbance explicitly, or only include disturbance as infrequent and smaller scale processes, assuming that the net effect of climate parameters on key demographic processes predict longer-term equilibrial responses of biota. Due to increasing frequency and extent of extreme events associated with climate change, ecologists may need to increase focus on individual demographic events driven by environmental extremes such as widespread coral bleaching or large-scale tree die-off. An expanded focus on how extreme events catalyze individual demographic events would complement existing tools that predict long-term equilibrial biogeographic responses associated with long-term trends in climate. In many cases, extreme conditions (e.g. drought) are a necessary precursor for an abrupt demographic event (e.g. large-scale tree die-off) and the effects of extremes can be exacerbated by climatic trends (e.g. higher temperatures in combination with drought). Here, we highlight application of bioclimatic models for predicting individual demographic events. Defining the environmental conditions that precipitate demographic events such as widespread tree mortality is a necessary precursor for applying predictions to geographic space, and may require challenging biota with experiments that impose a combination of ecologically extreme conditions in one parameter and a shifting distribution in another (e.g. drought under higher temperatures). Currently data on conditions that drive individual demographic events associated with extremes are usually rare, aggregated across time, and/or correlative. We highlight this approach with a case study of drought-induced mortality in adult Pinus edulis trees that predicts a more than five-fold increase in frequency of die-off events under a global change scenario of high emissions. This general approach complements both traditional bioclimatic envelopes and more detailed physiological approaches currently being refined to address climate change challenges. Notably, this proposed approach could be developed for any climate condition or plant life stage, offering promise for improving predictions of individual demographic events that are rapidly altering ecosystems globally.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗

USGS1978

Numerical simulation of dissolved silica in the San Fancisco Bay

A two-dimensional (vertical) steady-state numerical model that simulates water circulation and dissolved-silica distributions is applied to northern San Francisco Bay. The model (1) describes the strong influence of river inflow on estuarine circulation and, in turn, on the biologically modulated silica concentration, and (2) shows how rates of silica uptake relate to silica supply and mixing rates in modifying a conservative behavior. Longitudinal silica distributions influenced by biological uptake (assuming both vertically uniform and vertically decreasing uptake situations) show that uptake rates of 1 to 10 μg-at. l −1 day −1 are sufficient to depress silica concentrations at river inflows of 100–400 m 3 s −1 , respectively, and that the higher rates appear ineffective at inflows above 400 m 3 s −1 . The simulations further indicate that higher silica utilization in the null zone is not essential to depress silica concentrations strongly there. Advective water-replacement times at river inflows of 400, 200 and 100 m 3 s −1 are computed to be less than 25, 45 and 75 days, respectively, for a 120-km estuary-river system.

California↗

USGS2025

Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous U.S.

The land carbon sink of the conterminous United States was evaluated using a bottom-up modeling framework and 30-meter land change data from 1985 to 2020. This cross-scale, cross-landscape, and cross-system approach tracked fractional land cover changes and applied regional model calibration. Results show average terrestrial and aquatic carbon sinks of +110 ± 37 and +19 ± 0.5 teragrams of carbon per year, respectively. The terrestrial carbon sink, showing no clear trend, peaked in the 1990s, with more years as a carbon source since 2000, contradicting recent national and global studies. Land change had the largest impact (−70 ± 5.5 teragrams of carbon per year), exceeding impacts of climate (−33 ± 48 teragrams of carbon per year), wildfire (−7.7 ± 2.4 teragrams of carbon per year), and erosion transport (−1.9 ± 0.13 teragrams of carbon per year). The positive CO2 fertilization effect (+69 ± 12 teragrams of carbon per year) was insufficient to maintain the carbon sink strength. Our framework reveals key paths of carbon loss, with implications for carbon budget and energy policies in the United States and beyond.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2018

Wanted dead or alive: A state-space mark-recapture-recovery model incorporating multiple recovery types and state uncertainty

We developed a state-space mark-recapture-recovery model that incorporates multiple recovery types and state uncertainty to estimate survival of an anadromous fish species. We apply the model to a dataset of out-migrating juvenile steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) tagged with passive integrated transponders, recaptured during outmigration, and recovered on bird colonies in the Columbia River basin (2008-2014). Recoveries on bird colonies are often ignored in survival studies because the river reach of mortality is often unknown, which we model as a form of state uncertainty. Median outmigration survival from release to the lower river (river kilometer 729 to 75) ranged from 0.27 to 0.35, depending on year. Recovery probabilities were frequently >0.20 in the first river reach following tagging, indicating that one out of five fish that died in that reach was recovered on a bird colony. Integrating dead recovery data provided increased parameter precision, estimation of where birds consumed fish, and survival estimates across larger spatial scales. More generally, these modeling approaches provide a flexible framework to integrate multiple sources of tag recovery data into mark-recapture studies.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS1994

Why are the PCB concentrations of salmonine individuals from the same lake so highly variable?

An individual-based model (IBM) was applied to the Lake Michigan rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) population, with the objectives of explaining the observed variation in growth and in polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentration within the population. When variation in prey PCB concentration was incorporated into the model, variability in PCB concentration among individual rainbow trout was fully explained by the IBM. Although number of spawnings and number of years spent in a stream prior to first entering the lake were factors in determining growth, these life history characteristics appeared to have only a minor impact on PCB accumulation rate in rainbow trout. The IBM application to the rainbow trout population was compared with an application to the Lake Michigan lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) population. Modeling results indicated that the lower observed PCB concentrations in rainbow trout compared with lake trout were chiefly due to greater longevity in lake trout. The IBM simulations identified gross growth efficiency, assimilation efficiency of PCBs from food, and diet as other important sources of variability in salmonine PCB concentrations.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2018

Bias correction of simulated historical daily streamflow at ungauged locations by using independently estimated flow duration curves

In many simulations of historical daily streamflow distributional bias arising from the distributional properties of residuals has been noted. This bias often presents itself as an underestimation of high streamflow and an overestimation of low streamflow. Here, 1168 streamgages across the conterminous USA, having at least 14 complete water years of daily data between 1 October 1980 and 30 September 2013, are used to explore a method for rescaling simulated streamflow to correct the distributional bias. Based on an existing approach that separates the simulated streamflow into components of temporal structure and magnitude, the temporal structure is converted to simulated nonexceedance probabilities and the magnitudes are rescaled using an independently estimated flow duration curve (FDC) derived from regional regression. In this study, this method is applied to a pooled ordinary kriging simulation of daily streamflow coupled with FDCs estimated by regional regression on basin characteristics. The improvement in the representation of high and low streamflows is correlated with the accuracy and unbiasedness of the estimated FDC. The method is verified by using an idealized case; however, with the introduction of regionally regressed FDCs developed for this study, the method is only useful overall for the upper tails, which are more accurately and unbiasedly estimated than the lower tails. It remains for future work to determine how accurate the estimated FDCs need to be to be useful for bias correction without unduly reducing accuracy. In addition to its potential efficacy for distributional bias correction, this particular instance of the methodology also represents a generalization of nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using FDCs. Rather than relying on single index stations, as is commonly done to reflect streamflow timing, this approach to simulation leverages geostatistical tools to allow a region of neighbors to reflect streamflow timing.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2014

Modeling future scenarios of light attenuation and potential seagrass success in a eutrophic estuary

Estuarine eutrophication has led to numerous ecological changes, including loss of seagrass beds. One potential cause of these losses is a reduction in light availability due to increased attenuation by phytoplankton. Future sea level rise will also tend to reduce light penetration and modify seagrass habitat. In the present study, we integrate a spectral irradiance model into a biogeochemical model coupled to the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). It is linked to a bio-optical seagrass model to assess potential seagrass habitat in a eutrophic estuary under future nitrate loading and sea-level rise scenarios. The model was applied to West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow estuary located on Cape Cod (Massachusetts) where nitrate from groundwater has led to eutrophication and seagrass loss in landward portions of the estuary. Measurements of chlorophyll, turbidity, light attenuation, and seagrass coverage were used to assess the model accuracy. Mean chlorophyll based on uncalibrated in-situ fluorometry varied from 28 μg L −1 at the landward-most site to 6.5 μg L −1 at the seaward site, while light attenuation ranged from 0.86 to 0.45 m -1 . The model reproduced the spatial variability in chlorophyll and light attenuation with RMS errors of 3.72 μg L −1 and 0.07 m -1 respectively. Scenarios of future nitrate reduction and sea-level rise suggest an improvement in light climate in the landward basin with a 75% reduction in nitrate loading. This coupled model may be useful to assess habitat availability changes due to eutrophication and sediment resuspension and fully considers spatial variability on the tidal timescale.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2012

Monitoring on Xi'an ground fissures deformation with TerraSAR-X data

Owing to the fine resolution of TerraSAR-X data provided since 2007, this paper applied 6 TerraSAR data (strip mode) during 3rd Dec. 2009 to 23rd Mar. 2010 to detect and monitor the active fissures over Xi'an region. Three themes have been designed for high precision detection and monitoring of Xi'an-Chang'an fissures, as small baseline subsets (SBAS) to test the atmospheric effects of differential interferograms pair stepwise, 2-pass differential interferogram with very short baseline perpendicular to generate the whole deformation map with 44 days interval, and finally, corner reflector (CR) technique was used to closely monitor the relative deformation time series between two CRs settled crossing two ground fissures. Results showed that TerraSAR data are a good choice for small-scale ground fissures detection and monitoring, while special considerations should be taken for their great temporal and baseline decorrelation. Secondly, ground fissures in Xi'an were mostly detected at the joint section of stable and deformable regions. Lastly, CR-InSAR had potential ability to monitor relative deformation crossing fissures with millimeter precision.

Wuhan Daxue Xuebao (Xinxi Kexue Ban)/Geomatics and↗

USGS2024

An integrative paradigm for building causal knowledge

A core aspiration of the ecological sciences is to determine how systems work, which implies the challenge of developing a causal understanding. Causal inference has long been approached from a statistical perspective, which can be limited and restrictive for a variety of reasons. Ecologists and other natural scientists have historically pursued mechanistic knowledge as an alternative approach to causal understanding, though without explicit reference to the requirements of causal statistics. In this paper, I describe the premises of an expanded paradigm for causal studies, the Integrative Causal Investigation Paradigm, that subsumes causal statistics and mechanistic investigation into a multi-evidence approach. This paradigm is distinct from the one articulated by causal statistics in that it (1) focuses its attention on the long-term goal of building causal knowledge across multiple studies and (2) recognizes the essential role of mechanistic investigations in establishing a causal understanding. The Integrative Paradigm, consequentially, proposes that there are multiple methodological routes to building causal knowledge and thus represents a pluralistic perspective. This paper begins by describing the crux of the problem faced by causal statistics. To understand this problem, it should be recognized that the word causal has multiple meanings and a variety of evidential standards. An expanded vocabulary is developed so as to reduce ambiguities and clarify critical issues. I further show by example that there is an important ingredient typically omitted from consideration in causal statistics, which is the known information related to the mechanisms underlying relationships being evaluated. To address this issue, I describe a procedure, Causal Knowledge Analysis, that involves an evaluation and compilation of existing evidence indicative of causal content and the features of mechanisms. Causal Knowledge Analysis is applied to three example situations to illustrate the process and its potential for contributing to the development of causal knowledge. The implications of adopting the proposed paradigm and associated procedures are discussed and include the potential for advancing ecology, the potential for clarifying causal methodology, and the potential for contributing to predictive forecasting.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2016

Polyoxyethylene tallow amine, a glyphosate formulation adjuvant: Soil adsorption characteristics, degradation profile, and occurrence on selected soils from agricultural fields in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, and Missouri

Polyoxyethylene tallow amine (POEA) is an inert ingredient added to formulations of glyphosate, the most widely applied agricultural herbicide. POEA has been shown to have toxic effects to some aquatic organisms making the potential transport of POEA from the application site into the environment an important concern. This study characterized the adsorption of POEA to soils and assessed its occurrence and homologue distribution in agricultural soils from six states. Adsorption experiments of POEA to selected soils showed that POEA adsorbed much stronger than glyphosate; calcium chloride increased the binding of POEA; and the binding of POEA was stronger in low pH conditions. POEA was detected on a soil sample from an agricultural field near Lawrence, Kansas, but with a loss of homologues that contain alkenes. POEA was also detected on soil samples collected between February and early March from corn and soybean fields from ten different sites in five other states (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Mississippi). This is the first study to characterize the adsorption of POEA to soil, the potential widespread occurrence of POEA on agricultural soils, and the persistence of the POEA homologues on agricultural soils into the following growing season.

Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Miss↗

USGS2024

Using the TSS-RESTREND methodology to diagnose post-reclamation vegetation trends on the western slope of Colorado

We evaluated the use of the time series segmented residual trends (TSS-RESTREND) methodology to analyze plant community trends after oil and gas reclamation. We focused on reclaimed well pads managed by the Bureau of Land Management in northwestern Colorado. We assessed whether TSS-RESTREND could detect postreclamation changes in a plant community and if such changes corresponded with management actions. We used precipitation data and the greenness-to-cover index to calculate the residuals of the vegetation–precipitation relationship (VPR residuals). The VPR residuals represent plant community trends caused by disturbance or management actions and not by precipitation. We then used breaks for additive season and trend and the Chow test on the VPR residuals of each well pad to identify abrupt changes in plant community composition from 2000 to 2020. Afterward, we applied a segmented residual trend (RESTREND) analysis to the VPR residuals before and after an identified breakpoint or a singular RESTREND when no significant breakpoint was found to determine if reclamation had an effect on vegetation response to precipitation. We found a slight positive increase in VPR residuals over time since reclamation, indicating a more positive response to precipitation over time. In addition, well pads with lower aridity index values had a small positive trend in VPR residuals over time, suggesting the negative impact of aridity on plant community composition diminishes with increasing time since reclamation. To further understand the connection between management actions and outcomes, we compared findings from TSS-RESTREND with aerial imagery and well pad documentation. With this information, we categorized the well pads into six groups based on reclamation outcomes. This approach provided insights into the effects of management actions on recovery. Overall, TSS-RESTREND methodology can help identify changes in plant community composition over time, enhancing our understanding of plant community dynamics in these severely degraded areas.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

Revealing organofluorine contamination in effluents and surface waters with complementary analytical approaches: Fluorine-19 nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (19F-NMR) and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS)

Fluorinated organic contaminants, including per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and fluorinated pesticides and pharmaceuticals (FPPs), pose a persistent threat to environmental health. Widely used liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) methods fail to capture large fractions of total organofluorine in environmental samples, confounding the assessment of fluorinated contamination. Fluorine-19 nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( 19 F-NMR) is an inclusive method for total and class-based organofluorine analysis. Here, we apply 19 F-NMR to 31 effluent, surface water, and foam samples collected at 13 potential organofluorine point sources or source regions and compare the results to targeted LC-MS/MS for 34 or 64 PFASs. LC-MS/MS detected a median of 11.4% of total organofluorine detected by 19 F-NMR (range: nondetect to 8190 nM F 19 F-NMR; nondetect to 8010 nM F LC-MS/MS). The highest 19 F-NMR total organofluorine concentrations, detected in wastewater treatment plant (WWTP)-associated foam and at a soy oil production facility, arose from resonances characteristic of per- and polyfluorinated alkyl chains. 19 F-NMR resonances from aryl CF 3 moieties were abundant in the WWTP-associated samples, consistent with prior reports of substantial contributions from pharmaceuticals to WWTP effluents. 19 F-NMR enables the quantitative assessment of total organofluorine and qualitative insight into fluorinated structures, providing complementary analysis of organofluorine compounds missed by targeted mass spectrometry-based protocols.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2023

Riparian vegetation response amid variable climate conditions across the Upper Gila River watershed: Informing Tribal restoration priorities

Riparian systems across the Southwest United States are extremely valuable for the human and ecological communities that engage with them. However, they have experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century, including non-native vegetation expansion, vegetation die-offs, and increased fire activity. Vegetation management approaches, such as ecological restoration, may address some of these stressors as well as reduce the risk of future impacts. We apply remote sensing to inform restoration priorities along the upper Gila River within the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed. First, we develop a spatially and temporally explicit trend analysis across three observed climate periods (1985–1993, 1993–2014, 2014–2021) using the Landsat-derived indices to quantify changes in riparian vegetation conditions. These maps can be used to identify areas potentially more at risk for degradation. Second, we analyze changes in riparian vegetation within a climate framework to better understand trends and the potential effect of climate change. Vegetation greenness has largely increased throughout the watershed despite intensifying drought conditions across our study period, though areas within the lower watershed have shown increased stress and higher rates of wildfire and other disturbances over the past 5-years. Nevertheless, small-scale restoration activities appear to show improving vegetation conditions, suggesting efficacy of these restoration activities. Results from this study may be integrated with restoration objectives to develop a restoration plan that will help riparian vegetation communities adapt to change.

Arizona↗

USGS2025

Healing ogaa (walleye Sander vitreus) waters: Lessons and future directions for inland fisheries rehabilitation

ulturally, economically, and nutritionally valuable inland fisheries face many new challenges on top of chronic disturbances. In the upper midwestern United States, declines in cool- and coldwater fisheries have been observed, including ogaa/walleye Sander vitreus . In response to population declines, agencies have implemented rehabilitation efforts, and the frequency and intensity of efforts have increased recently given declines. Evaluating intervention outcomes is critical for institutional learning and to understand strategy effectiveness, but is difficult to do when multiple interventions are applied concurrently and in the absence of replication or controls. This review documents walleye rehabilitation efforts in the upper Midwest U.S., where a rehabilitation effort was defined as a coordinated effort with the stated intention to restore a self-sustaining population such that it required limited-to-no further intervention. We discuss: (1) strategies used; (2) similarities and differences in metrics of success; (3) factors leading to success; and (4) recommendations that may increase future successful rehabilitation. Strategies included harvest regulation changes, stocking, fish community manipulations, habitat enhancement, and partner discussions. Overall, evaluations of environmental, habitat, and fish community factors causing walleye population declines were not included in most rehabilitation plans before implementation. This review highlights an increased need for ecosystem-based fisheries management principles and cultivating ecological conditions that favor walleye as a potential path for future rehabilitation plans. Lessons drawn from rehabilitation plans are applicable to global inland fisheries to inform the conservation of declining fish populations.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Environmental fate model for ultra-low-volume insecticide applications used for adult mosquito management

One of the more effective ways of managing high densities of adult mosquitoes that vector human and animal pathogens is ultra-low-volume (ULV) aerosol applications of insecticides. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses models that are not validated for ULV insecticide applications and exposure assumptions to perform their human and ecological risk assessments. Currently, there is no validated model that can accurately predict deposition of insecticides applied using ULV technology for adult mosquito management. In addition, little is known about the deposition and drift of small droplets like those used under conditions encountered during ULV applications. The objective of this study was to perform field studies to measure environmental concentrations of insecticides and to develop a validated model to predict the deposition of ULV insecticides. The final regression model was selected by minimizing the Bayesian Information Criterion and its prediction performance was evaluated using k -fold cross validation. Density of the formulation and the density and CMD interaction coefficients were the largest in the model. The results showed that as density of the formulation decreases, deposition increases. The interaction of density and CMD showed that higher density formulations and larger droplets resulted in greater deposition. These results are supported by the aerosol physics literature. A k -fold cross validation demonstrated that the mean square error of the selected regression model is not biased, and the mean square error and mean square prediction error indicated good predictive ability.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2021

Widespread use of the nitrification inhibitor nitrapyrin: Assessing benefits and costs to agriculture, ecosystems, and environmental health

Agricultural production and associated applications of nitrogen (N) fertilizers have increased dramatically in the last century, and current projections to 2050 show that demands will continue to increase as the human population grows. Applied in both organic and inorganic fertilizer forms, N is an essential nutrient in crop productivity. Increased fertilizer applications, however, create the potential for more N loss before plant uptake. One strategy for minimizing N loss is the use of enhanced efficiency fertilizers, fortified with a nitrification inhibitor, such as nitrapyrin. In soils and water, nitrapyrin inhibits the activity of ammonia monooxygenase, a microbial enzyme that catalyzes the first step of nitrification from ammonium to nitrite. Potential benefits of using nitrification inhibitors range from reduced nitrate leaching and nitrous oxide emissions to increased crop yield. The extent of these benefits, however, depends on environmental conditions and management practices. Thus, such benefits are not always realized. Additionally, nitrapyrin has been shown to transport off-field, and it is unknown what effects environmental nitrapyrin could have on nontarget organisms and the ecological nitrogen cycle. Here, we review the agronomic and environmental benefits and costs of nitrapyrin use and present a series of research questions and considerations to be addressed with future nitrification inhibitor research.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2023

Redd superimposition mediates the accuracy, precision, and significance of redd counts for cutthroat trout

Redd counts are commonly applied to estimate spawning population size for salmonids and allow for broad spatial and temporal coverage in monitoring efforts. However, the utility of redd counts may be compromised by observation error, particularly with respect to superimposition, where later arriving spawners construct redds overlapping existing redds. Here, we provide a mechanistic evaluation of the effects of superimposition on the error structure and biological significance of redd count data for Yellowstone cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri ) spawning within tributaries to the Snake River, Wyoming. We used a Bayesian framework to parse observation error into distinct components and found low detection of redd clusters (i.e., areas of superimposition) was offset by overestimates of the number of redds per cluster, such that observed counts accurately reflected census redd abundance. However, a saturating relationship between redd counts and spawner abundance indicated that counts is best interpreted as effective reproductive effort rather than spawner abundance. Our results provide a mechanistic understanding of redd count data that can be used to assess their application and interpretation for monitoring.

Wyoming↗

USGS2001

Development of the permeability/performance reference compound approach for in situ calibration of semipermeable membrane devices

Permeability/performance reference compounds (PRCs) are analytically noninterfering organic compounds with moderate to high fugacity from semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) that are added to the lipid prior to membrane enclosure. Assuming that isotropic exchange kinetics (IEK) apply and that SPMD-water partition coefficients are known, measurement of PRC dissipation rate constants during SPMD field exposures and laboratory calibration studies permits the calculation of an exposure adjustment factor (EAF). In theory, PRC-derived EAF ratios reflect changes in SPMD sampling rates (relative to laboratory data) due to differences in exposure temperature, membrane biofouling, and flow velocity-turbulence at the membrane surface. Thus, the PRC approach should allow for more accurate estimates of target solute/vapor concentrations in an exposure medium. Under some exposure conditions, the impact of environmental variables on SPMD sampling rates may approach an order of magnitude. The results of this study suggest that most of the effects of temperature, facial velocity-turbulence, and biofouling on the uptake rates of analytes with a wide range of hydrophobicities can be deduced from PRCs with a much narrower range of hydrophobicities. Finally, our findings indicate that the use of PRCs permits prediction of in situ SPMD sampling rates within 2-fold of directly measured values.

Environmental Science & Technology↗