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USGS2010

Structured decision-making and rapid prototyping to plan a management response to an invasive species

We developed components of a decision structure that could be used in an adaptive management framework for responding to invasion of hemlock woolly adelgid Adeleges tsugae on the Cumberland Plateau of northern Tennessee. Hemlock woolly adelgid, an invasive forest pest, was first detected in this area in 2007. We used a structured decision-making process to identify and refine the management problem, objectives, and alternative management actions, and to assess consequences and tradeoffs among selected management alternatives. We identified four fundamental objectives: 1) conserve the aquatic and terrestrial riparian conservation targets, 2) protect and preserve hemlock, 3) develop and maintain adequate budget, and 4) address public concerns. We designed two prototype responses using an iterative process. By rapidly prototyping a first solution, insights were gained and shortcomings were identified, and some of these shortcomings were incorporated and corrected in the second prototype. We found that objectives were best met when management focused on early treatment of lightly to moderately infested but relatively healthy hemlock stands with biological control agent predator beetles and insect-killing fungi. Also, depending on the cost constraint, early treatment should be coupled with silvicultural management of moderately to severely infested and declining hemlock stands to accelerate conversion to nonhemlock mature forest cover. The two most valuable contributions of the structured decision-making process were 1) clarification and expansion of our objectives, and 2) application of tools to assess tradeoffs and predict consequences of alternative actions. Predicting consequences allowed us to evaluate the influence of uncertainty on the decision. For example, we found that the expected number of mature forest stands over 30 y would be increased by 4% by resolving the uncertainty regarding predator beetle effectiveness. The adaptive management framework requires further development including identifying and evaluating uncertainty, formalizing other competing predictive models, designing a monitoring program to update the predictive models, developing a process for re-evaluating the predictive models and incorporating new management technologies, and generating support for planning and implementation.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2003

Effects of backpack radiotags on female northern pintails wintering in California

To test whether backpack radiotags impacted the wintering biology of northern pintails (Anas acuta), I attached spear-suture (SSU, n=82 in 1993) or harness (HAR, n=337 in 1991-1993) backpack radiotags to female Hatch-Year (HY) and After-Hatch-Year (AHY) pintails after their autumn arrival in California. I evaluated impacts of radiotags on 1) wintering population distribution; 2) flock status, flock size, and body mass at harvest; and 3) August-March survival. I also compared retention of SSU and HAR following attachment. Distribution, flock status, and flock size at harvest of HAR, SSU, and unmarked (UMK) pintails were similar. However, harvest mass of HAR pintails averaged 1 33 g (SE=25 g) less than UMK pintails; loss tended to be greatest for heavier HY females in 1 993. Daily survival rates during 1 993-1 994 of HAR vs. SSU pintails were similar for both HY (0.9979 vs. 0.9974) and AHY (0.9988 vs. 0.9986) female pintails. Retention ranged from 30-1 58 days (x=81 d, SE=5 d) for the 37 SSU that I confirmed as being shed; all other SSU failed 1-month studies due to poor retention past a month.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2011

Comparative health assessment of western Pacific leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) foraging off the coast of California, 2005-2007

Leatherback turtles ( Dermochelys coriacea ) are critically endangered, primarily threatened by the overharvesting of eggs, fisheries entanglement, and coastal development. The Pacific leatherback population has experienced a catastrophic decline over the past two decades. Leatherbacks foraging off the coast of California are part of a distinct Western Pacific breeding stock that nests on beaches in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands. Although it has been proposed that the rapid decline of Pacific leatherback turtles is due to increased adult mortality, little is known about the health of this population. Health assessments in leatherbacks have examined females on nesting beaches, which provides valuable biological information, but might have limited applicability to the population as a whole. During September 2005 and 2007, we conducted physical examinations on 19 foraging Pacific leatherback turtles and measured normal physiologic parameters, baseline hematologic and plasma biochemistry values, and exposure to heavy metals (cadmium, lead, and mercury), organochlorine contaminants, and domoic acid. We compared hematologic values of foraging Pacific leatherbacks with their nesting counterparts in Papua New Guinea ( n =11) and with other nesting populations in the Eastern Pacific in Costa Rica ( n =8) and in the Atlantic in St. Croix ( n =12). This study provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of the health status of leatherbacks in the Pacific. We found significant differences in blood values between foraging and nesting leatherbacks, which suggests that health assessment studies conducted only on nesting females might not accurately represent the whole population. The establishment of baseline physiologic data and blood values for healthy foraging leatherback turtles, including males, provides valuable data for long-term health monitoring and comparative studies of this endangered population.

California↗

USGS2011

Decision analysis for conservation breeding: Maximizing production for reintroduction of whooping cranes

Captive breeding is key to management of severely endangered species, but maximizing captive production can be challenging because of poor knowledge of species breeding biology and the complexity of evaluating different management options. In the face of uncertainty and complexity, decision-analytic approaches can be used to identify optimal management options for maximizing captive production. Building decision-analytic models requires iterations of model conception, data analysis, model building and evaluation, identification of remaining uncertainty, further research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty, and integration of new data into the model. We initiated such a process to maximize captive production of the whooping crane ( Grus americana ), the world's most endangered crane, which is managed through captive breeding and reintroduction. We collected 15 years of captive breeding data from 3 institutions and used Bayesian analysis and model selection to identify predictors of whooping crane hatching success. The strongest predictor, and that with clear management relevance, was incubation environment. The incubation period of whooping crane eggs is split across two environments: crane nests and artificial incubators. Although artificial incubators are useful for allowing breeding pairs to produce multiple clutches, our results indicate that crane incubation is most effective at promoting hatching success. Hatching probability increased the longer an egg spent in a crane nest, from 40% hatching probability for eggs receiving 1 day of crane incubation to 95% for those receiving 30 days (time incubated in each environment varied independently of total incubation period). Because birds will lay fewer eggs when they are incubating longer, a tradeoff exists between the number of clutches produced and egg hatching probability. We developed a decision-analytic model that estimated 16 to be the optimal number of days of crane incubation needed to maximize the number of offspring produced. These results show that using decision-analytic tools to account for uncertainty in captive breeding can improve the rate at which such programs contribute to wildlife reintroductions.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2017

Multi-model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi-arid shrub

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata , we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi-model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2021

Why Lyme disease is common in the northern US, but rare in the south: The roles of host choice, host-seeking behavior, and tick density

Lyme disease is common in the northeastern United States, but rare in the southeast, even though the tick vector is found in both regions. Infection prevalence of Lyme spirochetes in host-seeking ticks, an important component to the risk of Lyme disease, is also high in the northeast and northern midwest, but declines sharply in the south. As ticks must acquire Lyme spirochetes from infected vertebrate hosts, the role of wildlife species composition on Lyme disease risk has been a topic of lively academic discussion. We compared tick–vertebrate host interactions using standardized sampling methods among 8 sites scattered throughout the eastern US. Geographical trends in diversity of tick hosts are gradual and do not match the sharp decline in prevalence at southern sites, but tick–host associations show a clear shift from mammals in the north to reptiles in the south. Tick infection prevalence declines north to south largely because of high tick infestation of efficient spirochete reservoir hosts (rodents and shrews) in the north but not in the south. Minimal infestation of small mammals in the south results from strong selective attachment to lizards such as skinks (which are inefficient reservoirs for Lyme spirochetes) in the southern states. Selective host choice, along with latitudinal differences in tick host-seeking behavior and variations in tick densities, explains the geographic pattern of Lyme disease in the eastern US.

PLoS Biology↗

USGS2007

San Diego Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP) Rare Plant Monitoring Review and Revision

Introduction The San Diego Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP) was developed for the conservation of plants and animals in the south part of San Diego County, under the California Natural Community Conservation Planning Act of 1991 (California Department of Fish and Game) and the Federal Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (16 U.S. Code 1531-1544.) The Program is on the leading edge of conservation, as it seeks to both guide development and conserve at-risk species with the oversight of both State and Federal agencies. Lands were identified for inclusion in the MSCP based on their value as habitat for at-risk plants or plant communities (Natural Community Conservation Planning, 2005). Since its inception in the mid-1990s the Program has protected over 100,000 acres, involving 15 jurisdictions and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and California Department of Fish and Game (CDFG) in the conservation of 87 taxa. Surveys for covered species have been conducted, and management and monitoring have been implemented at some high priority sites. Each jurisdiction or agency manages and monitors their conservation areas independently, while collaborating regionally for long-term protection. The San Diego MSCP is on the forefront of conservation, in one of the most rapidly growing urban areas of the country. The planning effort that developed the MSCP was state-of-the-art, using expert knowledge, spatial habitat modeling, and principles of preserve design to identify and prioritize areas for protection. Land acquisition and protection are ahead of schedule for most jurisdictions. Surveys have verified the locations of many rare plant populations known from earlier collections, and they provide general information on population size and health useful for further conservation planning. Management plans have been written or are in development for most MSCP parcels under jurisdictional control. Several agencies are developing databases for implementation and management tracking. In many ways this program is at the cutting edge of regional conservation, testing concepts, developing techniques, and demonstrating conservation effectiveness in new and uncharted ways. Periodic program review is crucial to the continued success of the program, as it moves from a phase of planning and acquisition to one of management and monitoring. Ecological monitoring is the key to assessing the success of the protection and management implemented at each individual reserve and for the MSCP as a whole. The ultimate goal of the Program is conservation of at-risk taxa and their habitats, as well as underlying ecological processes that contribute to sustainability of the ecosystem. Monitoring guidelines and timetables were developed by Ogden Environmental and Energy Services Co., Inc. (1996), and reviewed by Conservation Biology Institute (2001). The Program is in transition now, from the initial stage of land protection to one of land management and monitoring to determine population responses to management regimes. Several agencies have already invested substantial effort in status and trend monitoring, while others are developing their monitoring plans. Management is ongoing at several sites. With both management and monitoring, collaboration and coordination among jurisdictions can be especially fruitful in conserving resources and maximizing success.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

Characteristics for the external identification of Black Carp from Grass Carp

Black Carp Mylopharyngodon piceus and Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella are morphologically similar species native to eastern Asia and imported to North America as biological control organisms. Preferred identification methods are coloration and pharyngeal tooth form. Grass Carp possess serrated teeth and Black Carp molariform teeth. Examination of pharyngeal teeth causes extensive damage to a specimen and is labor and time intensive. Coloration can vary within a species and fades with preservation. We present a suite of external characteristics consisting of a truss network canonical variate analysis of distance measurements among landmarks on the lateral view of the head of each fish, the ratio of head length to mouth width, the visible presence of the premaxilla viewed dorsally with the mouth fully closed, and anterior lateral line angles among scales. Canonical variate analysis suggested that Grass Carp have a deeper head at the preoperculum and Black Carp a more elongate head relative to the preoperculum and eye. Comparisons of head length to mouth width ratio, visibility of the premaxilla dorsally with the mouth fully closed, and anterior lateral line angles all served as external characteristics of species, but outliers were present for each method. Because of the plastic morphology of wild populations, we suggest that a combination of characters be applied for identification.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS1999

Physical setting: Chapter 1 in Initial biotic survey of Lisbon Bottom, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge

Lisbon Bottom consists of approximately 875 ha of river bottom along the Missouri River in Howard County, Missouri, from approximately river mile (RM) 213 to RM 219. As used in this report, the Lisbon Bottom area also includes the main channel of the Missouri River adjacent to the Lisbon Bottom and portions of the adjacent flood plain in Saline County, Missouri. Before regulation and structuring of the Missouri River, riverine areas like Lisbon Bottom were shifting mosaics of dynamic habitat patches that were created and maintained by hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Flow regulation, navigation structures, and bank-stabilization projects isolated Lisbon Bottom from the river by decreasing the magnitude and frequency with which hydrologic and geomorphic processes could alter habitat characteristics. The flood of 1993 breached agricultural levees around Lisbon Bottom, thereby reestablishing a connection to the Missouri River. Although still affected by flow regulation and the requirement to maintain navigation in the main channel, Lisbon Bottom presents the opportunity to study ecosystem processes and dynamic geomorphology in a setting that more closely mimics the natural riverine system than any other site on the navigable Lower Missouri River. The purpose of this chapter is to describe the physical setting and processes that structure the riverine ecosystem of Lisbon Bottom and similar areas of the Lower Missouri River. The description compiles available information on temporal and spatial changes at the site, including the history of channel changes and hydrology.

Missouri↗

USGS2023

Sex-biased infections scale to population impacts for an emerging wildlife disease

Demographic factors are fundamental in shaping infectious disease dynamics. Aspects of populations that create structure, like age and sex, can affect patterns of transmission, infection intensity and population outcomes. However, studies rarely link these processes from individual to population-scale effects. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying demographic differences in disease are frequently unclear. Here, we explore sex-biased infections for a multi-host fungal disease of bats, white-nose syndrome, and link disease-associated mortality between sexes, the distortion of sex ratios and the potential mechanisms underlying sex differences in infection. We collected data on host traits, infection intensity and survival of five bat species at 42 sites across seven years. We found females were more infected than males for all five species. Females also had lower apparent survival over winter and accounted for a smaller proportion of populations over time. Notably, female-biased infections were evident by early hibernation and likely driven by sex-based differences in autumn mating behaviour. Male bats were more active during autumn which likely reduced replication of the cool-growing fungus. Higher disease impacts in female bats may have cascading effects on bat populations beyond the hibernation season by limiting recruitment and increasing the risk of Allee effects.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

USGS2019

Removal of cattle grazing correlates with increases in vegetation productivity and in abundance of imperiled breeding birds

Livestock grazing is the most prevalent land use practice in the western United States and a widespread cause of degradation of riparian vegetation. Riparian areas provide high-quality habitat for many species of declining migratory breeding birds. We analyzed changes in vegetation and bird abundance at a wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon over 24 years, following cessation of 120 years of livestock grazing. We quantified long-term changes in overall avian abundance and species richness and, specifically, in the abundances of 20 focal species. We then compared the local responses of the focal species to population-scale trends of the same species at three different large spatial scales. Overall avian abundance increased 23% during the 12 years after removal and remained consistent from then through year 24. Three times as many species colonized the survey sites as dropped out. Of the focal species, most riparian woodland-tree or shrub dependent, sagebrush obligate, and grassland or meadow taxa increased in abundance or remained stable locally. As these species were generally of conservation concern, the population increases contradicted regionally declining or stable trends. In contrast, most riparian woodland-cavity nester species decreased in abundance locally, reflecting disruption of aspen stand dynamics by decades of grazing. Avian nest parasites and competitors of native species declined in abundance locally, matching regional trends. Restoring riparian ecosystems by removing livestock appeared to be beneficial to the conservation of many of these declining populations of migratory birds.

Oregon↗

USGS2024

Potential impacts of an autumn oil spill on polar bears summering on land in northern Alaska

Demand for oil and natural gas continues to increase, leading to the development of remote regions where it is riskier to operate. Many of these regions have had limited development, so understanding potential impacts to wildlife could inform management decisions. In 2017, the United States passed legislation allowing oil and gas development in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska. This area has received limited industrial development and is an important region for polar bears that use the coastline as a travel corridor in autumn. We sought to understand how an autumn near-shore oil spill in the Refuge could affect polar bears. We simulated oil spills from shallow sub-sea pipelines at 3 locations along the coastline of the Refuge and allowed spills to discharge 4800 barrels of oil per day for 6 days, and tracked oil for 50 days. We interacted the trajectories with simulated polar bear movements to estimate how many bears might be exposed. Oil spread quickly along the coastline and during some weeks exposed an average of 10 bears (95 % CI: 0–37) to lethal levels of oil, and 60 (95 % CI: 9–120) to sub-lethal levels. Our results suggest a significant number of polar bears could become oiled from a spill in the region and require decontamination. Therefore, future mitigation strategies could include careful siting of future development and additional capacity to capture and decontaminate bears in the event of an oil spill.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant

Mead's milkweed Asclepias meadii , a long-lived perennial herb of tallgrass prairie and glade communities of the central United States, is a species designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Challenges to its successful management include the facts that much about its life history is unknown, its age at reproductive maturity is very advanced, certain life stages are practically unobservable, its productivity is responsive to unpredictable environmental events, and most of the known populations occur on private lands unprotected by any legal conservation instrument. One critical source of biological uncertainty is the degree to which fire promotes growth and reproductive response in the plant. To aid in its management, we developed a prototype population-level state-dependent decision-making framework that explicitly accounts for this uncertainty and for uncertainties related to stochastic environmental effects and vital rates. To parameterize the decision model, we used estimates found in the literature, and we analyzed data from a long-term monitoring program where fates of individual plants were observed through time. We demonstrate that different optimal courses of action are followed according to how one believes that fire influences reproductive response, and we show that the action taken for certain population states is informative for resolving uncertainty about competing beliefs regarding the effect of fire. We advocate the use of a model-predictive approach for the management of rare populations, particularly when management uncertainty is profound. Over time, an adaptive management approach should reduce uncertainty and improve management performance as predictions of management outcome generated under competing models are continually informed and updated by monitoring data.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2020

Incorporating spatial synchrony in the status assessment of a threatened species with multivariate analysis

Spatial synchrony—correlated abundance fluctuations among distinct populations—is associated with increased extinction risk but is not a component of widely-used extinction risk assessments (e.g., IUCN Red List, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessment). Alongside traditional viability metrics (i.e., the number of populations, their spatial extent, the status of each population), consideration of spatial synchrony in these assessments may provide additional insight into extinction risk as well as the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on population dynamics. We demonstrate a method for estimating abundance trends in populations of the endangered freshwater fish, the amber darter (Percina antesella), while simultaneously assessing support for spatial synchrony among its two populations in the Conasauga and Etowah rivers in Georgia, U.S.A. Our analysis was performed using multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models with annual sampling data from 1996-2018 at 16 sites distributed between the two populations. Our results indicate that amber darter populations have declined substantially, with 9% annual losses in both the Conasauga and Etowah rivers, suggesting rangewide imperilment. Furthermore, model selection indicated little support for models with independent dynamics between rivers, which may compound overall extinction risk. This analysis demonstrates the utility of tools such as MARSS models for assessing spatial synchrony and long-term population trajectories of imperiled species, resulting in improved vulnerability assessments that do not assume independence among separate populations.

Georgia↗

USGS2012

Effect of 17β-trenbolone on male and female reproduction in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica)

The anabolic steroid 17β trenbolone (17β-TB), a known endocrine disrupting chemical, may influence reproductive functions in avian wildlife. We evaluated the effects of dietary exposure to 17β-TB at 5 and 20 ppm on reproductive functional endpoints in Japanese quail during and after sexual maturation. In the male, 5 and 20 ppm treatments revealed no differences in body and testes weight, testes histology, plasma testosterone concentrations, or size and weight of the foam glands. However, the onset of foam production was significantly earlier (days of age) in the 20 ppm males. In females, dietary 17β-TB at 20 ppm caused a reduction in the number of maturing yellow yolk follicles and overall egg production. Plasma testosterone concentrations were reduced compared to controls. Histology of the oviductal sperm storage tubules was normal in all treatments. The number of sperm holes, sites on the perivitelline layer (PVL) where sperm bound and hydrolyzed a path through the PVL, was significantly greater in the 10th egg laid compared to the 1st egg laid in the 20 ppm treatment. Potential effects, albeit transient, on endpoints associated with male maturation warrant further investigation into the sensitivity of these measures in the event of embryonic and/or trans-generational exposure to 17β-TB.

Avian Biology Research↗

USGS1984

Breeding biology of Pacific white-fronted geese

Nesting ecology of Pacific white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons frontalis ) was studied on a 9.9-km 2 area on the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta, Alaska, during 1977-79. Availability of nesting habitat varied considerably among years because of differences in time of snow- and icemelt. Mean clutch size was 3.7 eggs in the late spring thaw year and 5.2 and 5.7 eggs in early snowmelt years. Peak (and duration) of nest initiation was 1-2 June (16 days) in the late spring and 15-18 May (20-21 days) during early springs. When nest sites were available early, the time interval between arrival and date of nest initiation closely approximated the time required for rapid yolk development. This suggests that whitefronts may be physiologically prevented from nesting earlier in such years. The duration of nest initiation was comparable to that of other goose species nesting on the Y-K Delta, but longer than for goose populations of several species nesting farther north or in the midcontinent. Overall, 68% of whitefront nests were in lowland habitat, 23% in intermediate habitat, and 10% in upland habitat, but habitat use varied significantly between early and late years. Whitefronts most commonly nested on slough banks (55%), lake shores (23%), and grass-sedge meadows (11%). A quantitative description of vegetation associated with nest sites is given. Major causes of nest destruction were flooding (28%) and predation (9%). Nesting success over the 3-year period averaged 62%.

Alaska↗

USGS2010

Estimating migratory game-bird productivity by integrating age ratio and banding data

Context: Reproduction is a critical component of fitness, and understanding factors that influence temporal and spatial dynamics in reproductive output is important for effective management and conservation. Although several indices of reproductive output for wide-ranging species, such as migratory birds, exist, there has been no theoretical justification for their estimators or associated measures of variance. Aims: The aims of our research were to develop statistical justification for an estimator of reproduction and associated variances on the basis of an existing national wing-collection survey and banding data, and to demonstrate the applicability of this estimator to a migratory game bird. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to integrate wing-collection data, which provides information on population age ratios, and band-recovery data, which provides information on recovery probabilities of various age classes, for American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ) to estimate productivity and associated measures of variance. We present two models of relative vulnerability between age classes: one model assumed that adult recovery probabilities were higher, but that annual fluctuations were synchronous between the two age classes (i.e. an additive effect of age and year). The second model assumed that adults, on average, had higher recovery probabilities than did juveniles and that annual fluctuations were asynchronous through time (i.e. an interaction between age and year). Key results: Fitting our models within a hierarchical Bayesian framework efficiently incorporates the two data types into a single estimator and derives appropriate variances for the productivity estimator. Further, use of Bayesian methods enabled us to derive credible intervals that avoid the reliance on asymptotic assumptions. When applied to American woodcock data, the additive model resulted in biologically realistic and more precise age-ratio estimates each year and is adequate when the relative vulnerability to sampling only slightly varies or does not vary among components of a population (e.g. age, sex class) among years. Therefore, we recommend using woodcock indices from our analysis based on this model. Conclusions: We provide a flexible modelling framework for estimating productivity and associated variances that can incorporate ecological covariates to explore various factors that could drive annual dynamics in productivity. Applying our model to the American woodcock data indicated that assumptions about the variability in relative recovery probabilities could greatly influence the precision of our productivity estimator. Therefore, researchers should carefully consider the assumption of temporally variable relative recovery probabilities (i.e. ratio of juvenile to adults' recovery probability) for different age classes when applying this estimator. Implications: Several national and international management strategies for migratory game birds in North America rely on measures of productivity from harvest survey parts collections, without a justification of the estimator or providing estimates of precision. We derive an estimator of productivity with realistic measures of uncertainty that can be directly incorporated into management plans or ecological studies across large spatial scales.

Wildlife Research↗

USGS1978

Statistical inference from capture data on closed animal populations

The estimation of animal abundance is an important problem in both the theoretical and applied biological sciences. Serious work to develop estimation methods began during the 1950s, with a few attempts before that time. The literature on estimation methods has increased tremendously during the past 25 years (Cormack 1968, Seber 1973). However, in large part, the problem remains unsolved. Past efforts toward comprehensive and systematic estimation of density (D) or population size (N) have been inadequate, in general. While more than 200 papers have been published on the subject, one is generally left without a unified approach to the estimation of abundance of an animal population This situation is unfortunate because a number of pressing research problems require such information. In addition, a wide array of environmental assessment studies and biological inventory programs require the estimation of animal abundance. These needs have been further emphasized by the requirement for the preparation of Environmental Impact Statements imposed by the National Environmental Protection Act in 1970. This publication treats inference procedures for certain types of capture data on closed animal populations. This includes multiple capture-recapture studies (variously called capture-mark-recapture, mark-recapture, or tag-recapture studies) involving livetrapping techniques and removal studies involving kill traps or at least temporary removal of captured individuals during the study. Animals do not necessarily need to be physically trapped; visual sightings of marked animals and electrofishing studies also produce data suitable for the methods described in this monograph. To provide a frame of reference for what follows, we give an exampled of a capture-recapture experiment to estimate population size of small animals using live traps. The general field experiment is similar for all capture-recapture studies (a removal study is, of course, slightly different). A typical field experiment is the following: a number of traps are positioned in the area to be studied, say 144 traps in a 12 X 12 grid, 7 m apart. At the beginning of the study (j=1) a sample size of n 1 is taken from the population, the animals are tagged and marked for future identification, and then returned to the population, usually at the same point where they were trapped. After allowing time of the marked and unmarked animals to mix, a second sample (j=2, often the following day) or n 2 animals is then taken.the second sample normally contains both marked and unmarked animals. The unmarked animals are marked and all captured animals are released back into the population. This procedure continues for t periods where t ≥ 2. The animals should be marked in such a way that the capture-recapture history of each animal caught during the study is known. In practice, toes are often clipped to uniquely identify individual animals (Taber and Cowan 1969) or serially numbered tags are sometimes used on larger animals. Such capture studies are classified by 2 schemes that are directly related to what class of models are appropriate and what parameters can be estimated. The first classification addresses the subject of closure. Closure usually means the size of the population is constant over the priod of investigation, i.e., no recruitment (birth or immigration) or losses (death or emigration). This is a strong assumption and, of course, never completely true in a natural biological population. For greater generality, we define closure to mean there are no unknown changes to the initial population. In practice, this means known losses (trap death), or deliberate removals) do not violate our definition of closure. If the study is properly designed, closure can be met at least approximately. Open or nonclosed populations explicitly allow for one or more types of recruitment or losses to operate during the course of the experiment (Jolly 1965, Seber 1965, Robson 1969, Pollock 1975). Only closed populations will be considered in this monograph. The second classification depends on the type of data collected with 2 possibilities occurring (Pollock 1974, unpublished doctoral dissertation, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York): (1) only information on the recovery of marked animals is available for each sampling occasion, j, j=1, 2, ... t. (2) information on both marked and unmarked animals is available for each sampling occasion, j, j=1, 2, ... t. In case (1), population size (N) is not identifiable, however, other parameters can be estimated (Brownie et al. 1978). In case (2), N can be estimated using a wide variety of approaches depending upon what we wish to assume. Only case (2) will be dealt with here.

Wildlife Monographs↗