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Statistical summaries of New Jersey streamflow records

In 1961 the U.S. Geological Survey prepared a report which was published by the State of New Jersey as Water Resources Circular 6, "New Jersey Streamflow Records analyzed with Electronic Computer" by Miller and McCall. Basic discharge data for periods of record through 1958 were analyzed for 59 stream-gaging stations in New Jersey and flow-duration, low-flow, and high-flow tables were presented. The purpose of the current report is to update and expand Circular 6 by presenting, with a few meaningful statistics and tables, the bulk of the information that may be obtained from the mass of streamflow records available. The records for 79 of approximately 110 stream-gaging stations presently or previously operated in New Jersey, plus records for three stations in Pennsylvania, and one in New York are presented in summarized form. In addition to inclusing a great number of stations in this report, more years of record and more tables are listed for each station. A description of the station, three arrangements of data summarizing the daily flow records and one table listing statistics of the monthly mean flows are provided. No data representing instantaneous extreme flows are given. Plotting positions for the three types of curves describing the characteristics of daily discharge are listed for each station. Statistical parameters are also presented so that alternate curves may be drawn. All stations included in this report have 5 or more years of record. The data presented herein are based on observed flow past the gaging station. For any station where the observed flow is affected by regulation or diversion, a "Remarks" paragraph, explaining the possible effect on the data, is included in the station description. Since any streamflow record is a sample in time, the data derived from these records can provide only a guide to expected future flows. For this reason the flow records are analyzed by statistical techniques, and the magnitude of sampling errors should be recognized. These analyzed data will be useful to a large number of municipal, state, and federal agencies, industries, utilities, engineers, and hydrologists concerned with the availability, conservation, control, and use of surface waters. The tabulated data and curves illustrated herein can be used to select sites for water supplies, to determine flood or drought storage requirements, and to appraise the adequacy of flows for dilution of wastes or generation of power. The statistical values presented herein can be used in computer programs available in many universities, Federal and State agencies, and engineering firms for a broad spectrum of research and other studies.

New Jersey↗

Introduction to recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States

Introduction The National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) was authorized and partially funded by the U.S. Government in 2019. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program asked its scientists to reflect on and summarize their views of best practices for volcano monitoring. The goal was to review and update the recommendations of a previous report (Moran and others, 2008) and to provide a more detailed analysis of capabilities and instrumentation for monitoring networks for U.S. volcanoes. This Scientific Investigations Report and its chapters reflect those USGS scientists’ views and summaries and will serve as a guide for future network upgrades funded through NVEWS. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to population centers and aviation (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989; Neal and others, 1997, 2019; Guffanti and others, 2010; Shroder and Papale, 2014; Prata and Rose, 2015; Palmer, 2020), volcano monitoring is critical for ensuring public safety and for mitigating the impacts of volcanic activity. Accurate and timely forecasts are facilitated by well-designed monitoring networks that are in place long enough to allow for background behavior to be recognized and understood. Because precursory signals may be limited and unrest may progress rapidly to an eruption, our goal is to deploy monitoring systems that enable detection of the reactivation of dormant volcanoes as early as possible, allowing for public safety and risk mitigation. NVEWS planning is also informed by the results of Ewert and others (2005, 2018), whereby 161 U.S. volcanoes are currently categorized and ranked commensurate with their relative threat. In each chapter, author(s) considered the need for some redundancy of instrumentation and telemetry, given the likelihood of occasional equipment failure, particularly in extreme and remote environments. Establishing digital telemetry networks requires advanced planning, sighting, radio-shot testing, and, inevitably, troubleshooting in the field. This is harder to achieve rapidly during a crisis; thus, an important goal for monitoring U.S. volcanoes is to establish digital telemetry backbones with redundancy and extra capacity to absorb additional instruments should a volcano begin to exhibit signs of unrest (fig. A1). The National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) imposed new regulations in the United States, eliminating the use of older analog radios for many purposes, which had been one previous means for redundant data delivery. However, the resulting conversion from analog to digital systems usefully enables stations to accommodate new and multivariate real-time data streams (for example, Global Navigation Satellite System [GNSS] receivers, infrasound arrays, gas spectrometers, visible and infrared cameras, and broadband seismometers). We note that other USGS and broader national and international hazard programs can leverage NVEWS instrumentation plans. Examples of this include the following: Improved seismic coverage of volcanoes will increase the capability of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program to detect and locate earthquakes, estimate ground shaking, and provide timely early warnings through the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System (Given and others, 2018). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Tsunami Program will benefit from additional seismic stations, particularly within the sparsely instrumented Aleutian Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa. Infrasound stations can detect signals from landslides, debris flows and lahars, floods, and weather events, providing benefits to the National Weather Service and the USGS Landslide Hazards Program.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Use of set blanks in reporting pesticide results at the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory, 2001-15

Executive Summary Background .—Pesticide results from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) are used for water-quality assessments by many agencies and organizations. The USGS is committed to providing data of the highest possible quality to the consumers of its data. A cooperator’s inquiries about specific pesticide detections in water revealed potential laboratory contamination issues for some results. Consequently, the USGS conducted an extensive evaluation of potential low-level contamination related to processing or analysis of water-quality samples at NWQL for 21 pesticide compounds of interest to the cooperator. This is the most comprehensive study of NWQL pesticide quality-control (QC) results to date. Purpose and scope .—The purpose of this study was to document protocols used by the NWQL to censor pesticide results and to determine the effects of laboratory contamination—as determined from detections in laboratory set blanks—on pesticide detections in groundwater and surface-water samples. More than 30,000 pesticide results from 113 selected batches of samples (2 percent or less of total batches) analyzed by the NWQL during the 15 years from 2001 to 2015 were reviewed. All laboratory results from the selected batches, including results from environmental (surface water and groundwater) and QC (set-blank, blind-blank, and blind-spike) samples, were evaluated. The study includes results for 21 pesticide compounds analyzed in groundwater and surface-water samples collected across the United States. Eleven pesticide compounds were analyzed by a gas chromatography/mass spectrometry method and 10 compounds by a liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry method. Objectives and methods .—The objectives of this study were to (1) determine the characteristics of laboratory contamination over time, (2) compare distributions of pesticide results in set blanks with distributions in environmental samples, (3) evaluate the potential for false-positive and false-negative reporting of results, and (4) evaluate the effects of reevaluating historical pesticide results using 2017 compound identification protocols on detections of pesticides in groundwater and surface-water samples. The 113 instrument batches selected for this study contained detections of one or more of the 21 pesticide compounds in set blanks or were among those batches with the highest pesticide detection frequencies in set blanks. As a result, the dataset for this study was targeted toward pesticides and batches with laboratory contamination. The objectives were addressed by statistically comparing environmental and set-blank results; computing moving averages of set-blank detection frequencies to identify periods of episodic contamination; and using summary statistics, tabular summaries, and graphical approaches, such as time-series plots and cumulative distribution functions. Results .— Objective 1 : Laboratory contamination, as determined by pesticide detections in set blanks, was found in 13 percent of set-blank results from the 113 targeted batches included in this study (as compared to 6 percent of set-blank results from all 7,620 batches analyzed during the study period). It is estimated that 92 percent of the laboratory contamination during the study period was episodic, meaning that it occurred during discrete periods of time. All 21 of the targeted pesticide compounds had periods of episodic contamination, with most episodes ranging in duration from about 1 to 8 months. The remaining 8 percent of laboratory contamination was random or from a known source (deterministic). Objective 2 : For some compounds, graphs of cumulative distribution functions of the entire distributions of set-blank and environmental samples overlap, suggesting that there is no difference in the distributions of the two types of samples. However, time-series graphs show that detections in set blanks often occur at different times (sometimes separated by years) than detections in environmental samples, indicating clear differences in those distributions, and indicating the importance of evaluating the timing of detections in all sample types. For most compounds detected in set-blank and environmental samples, detection frequencies were significantly greater in set blanks than in groundwater or surface-water samples ( p <0.05). There are several explanations for this finding, including that the 113 batches of samples chosen for this study targeted batches with detections in set blanks or that detections in set-blank samples were historically determined with less stringent identification criteria than for environmental samples (groundwater and surface-water samples). Objective 3 : The false-positive and false-negative rates from blind samples submitted during the study period by the USGS Quality Systems Branch generally were less than 1 and 5 percent, respectively, for the 21 pesticides. The only compound with a false-positive rate greater than 1 percent was flumetsulam (2.6 percent), indicating that there is a higher likelihood of flumetsulam being reported as a detection when it is not present in an environmental sample compared with the reporting of other compounds. Objective 4 : Altogether, for data in targeted batches, NWQL would have reported 0.1 percent of results from groundwater samples and 1.4 percent of results from surface-water samples differently if 2017 identification protocols were applied to historical pesticide results. In most of these cases, detections observed in historical results would change to nondetections. The small percentages of changes that would occur if historical data were reevaluated indicate that historical protocols used by the NWQL to identify detections in environmental samples were robust and produced results that are predominantly consistent with current [2017] practices. Conclusions .—The NWQL produces high-quality pesticide results at environmentally relevant concentrations. NWQL identification protocols and censoring practices are largely effective at minimizing the reporting of false-positive and false-negative results. Laboratory contamination, when it occurred, tended to occur in episodes; thus, evaluating the timing and magnitude of detections in set blanks relative to detections in environmental samples was determined to be an important consideration for analysis of environmental results. Because NWQL censoring practices do not address all types and occurrences of laboratory contamination, options for additional censoring practices are provided for data users with more specific or stringent data-quality objectives. The methods used to analyze the 21 compounds for this report can similarly be applied to all 173 pesticide compounds that were analyzed by the NWQL during the same time period. This study also has helped to identify potential improvements in reporting USGS data, such as conducting more frequent review of set-blank datasets.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Estimated Withdrawals and Use of Water in Colorado, 2005

The future health and economic welfare of the people and environment of Colorado depend on a continuous supply of fresh water. Detailed, comprehensive information on the use of water from Colorado's diverse surface-water and groundwater resources is important to water managers and planners by providing information they need to quantify current stresses and estimate and plan for future water needs. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Water Use Information Program (NWUIP), Statewide water withdrawal and water-use data have been collected or estimated and summarized in this report by county and by four-digit hydrologic unit code for the following seven water-use categories: irrigation (crop and golf course), public supply, self-supplied domestic, self-supplied industrial, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric power generation. A summary for instream water use for hydroelectric power generation also is included. This report is published in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board. In 2005, an estimated 13,581.22 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) was withdrawn from groundwater and surface-water sources in Colorado for the seven water-use categories. Withdrawals from surface water represented about 11,035 Mgal/d, or 81.3 percent of the total, whereas withdrawals from groundwater sources represented an estimated 2,546 Mgal/d or 18.7 percent of the total. Irrigation (combined crop and golf course) totaled 12,362.49 Mgal/d or 91 percent of the total water withdrawals in the State of Colorado. Crop irrigation accounted for 99.7 percent (12,321.85 Mgal/d) of the irrigation, whereas the 243 turf golf courses in Colorado accounted for 0.3 percent (40.64 Mgal/d) of the total irrigation water withdrawals. Total withdrawals for the other water-use categories were public supply, 864.17 Mgal/d; self-supplied domestic, 34.43 Mgal/d; self-supplied industrial, 142.44 Mgal/d; livestock, 33.06 Mgal/d; mining, 21.42 Mgal/d (includes both fresh and saline water); and thermoelectric, 123.21 Mgal/d. The counties with the largest total withdrawals (greater than 500 Mgal/d) were Mesa, Weld, Rio Grande, Montrose, Gunnison, and Saguache. Counties with the smallest total withdrawals (less than 5 Mgal/d) were Clear Creek, Gilpin, and San Juan. Four-digit hydrologic unit codes with the greatest withdrawals were 1019 (South Platte River Basin), 1301 (Rio Grande Basin), and 1102 (Arkansas River Basin); the high withdrawal rates were driven by crop irrigation withdrawals. Total instream water use for hydroelectric power generation was 5,253.60 Mgal/d. Groundwater withdrawals were estimated for 2004 for the bedrock and overlying alluvial aquifers in the Denver Basin for irrigation, public supply, commercial/industrial, household use only, and domestic/livestock water-use categories. Withdrawals were estimated for input into the USGS Denver Basin model by using the equations in the Senate Bill 96-074 groundwater model. The greatest withdrawals were for public supply. The smallest withdrawals were for household-use-only wells. Douglas County had the greatest groundwater withdrawals (183.98 Mgal/d), whereas Broomfield County had the smallest (3.09 Mgal/d). Of the seven Denver Basin aquifers, the Lower Arapahoe aquifer had the greatest total estimated withdrawals (287.11 Mgal/d), with Douglas County having the greatest public-supply withdrawal of any county (95.29 Mgal/d) from this aquifer. The Upper Dawson aquifer was the least used of the Denver Basin aquifers, based on estimated withdrawals of 17.64 Mgal/d. As part of the Colorado Statewide Water Supply Initiative (SWSI), forecasts of future water demand were made based on information such as population, climate, and then-current (2000) water-use information and did not include the effects of future water conservation. Categories compared between estimates in the SWSI baseline forecasted water demand and the USGS water-use compilation were limited to county population and w

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Effects of summer flow augmentation on the migratory behavior and survival of juvenile Snake River fall Chinook salmon. Annual report 2005

This report summarizes results of research activities conducted in 2004 and years previous to aid in the management and recovery of fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Columbia River basin. For detailed summaries, we refer the reader to the abstracts given on the second page of each chapter. The Annual Reporting section includes information provided to fishery managers in-season and post-season, and it contains a detailed summary of life history and survival statistics on wild Snake River fall Chinook salmon juveniles for the years 1992-2004. Publication is a high priority of our staff. Publication provides our results to a wide audience, and it insures that our work meets high scientific standards. The Bibliography of Published Journal Articles section provides citations for peer-reviewed papers co-authored by personnel of project 1991-02900 that were written or published from 1998 to 2005.

Idaho, Washington↗

Intercomparison of principal hydrometric instruments; Third phase, Evaluation of ultrasonic velocity meters for flow measurement in streams, canals, and estuaries

As part of the World Meteorological Organization ( WMO ) project Intercomparison of Principal Hydrometric Instruments , Third Phase , a questionnaire was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on the application of Ultrasonic Velocity Meters (UVM's) for flow measurement in streams , canals , and estuaries . In 1996, this questionnaire was distributed internationally by the WMO and USGS, and distributed within the United States by the USGS. Completed questionnaires were returned by 26 agencies in 7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States). The completed questionnaires described geometric and streamflow conditions, system configurations, and reasons for applying UVM systems for 260 sites, thus providing information on the applicability of UVM systems throughout the world. The completed questionnaires also provided information on operational issues such as (1) methods used to determine and verify UVM ratings, (2) methods used to determine the mean flow velocity for UVM systems, (3) operational reliability of UVM systems, (4) methods to estimate missing data, (5) common problems with UVM systems and guidelines to mitigate these problems, and (6) personnel training issues. The completed questionnaires also described a few unique or novel applications of UVM systems. In addition to summarizing the completed questionnaires, this report includes a brief overview of UVM application and operation, and a short summary of current (1998) information from UVM system manufacturers regarding system cost and capabilities. On the basis of the information from the completed questionnaires and provided by the manufacturers, the general applicability of UVM systems is discussed. In the finalisation of this report the financial support provided by the US National Committee for Scientific Hydrology is gratefully acknowledged.

Report↗

Impacts of tidal road-stream crossings on aquatic organism passage

ivers and streams are highly vulnerable to fragmentation from roads due to their prevalence in the landscape. Road-stream crossings are far more numerous than other anthropogenic barriers such as dams; these crossing structures (culverts, bridges, fords, and tide gates) have been demonstrated to impede the passage of aquatic organisms. However, road-stream crossings vary widely in the extent to which they serve as a barrier. It is important to identify barrier severity to facilitate prioritization of restoration activities, since proactively addressing all structures is not feasible. In 2015 the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Collaborative (LCC) funded a project managed by the North Atlantic Aquatic Connectivity Cooperative (NAACC) to develop a unified protocol for assessing aquatic road-stream crossings focusing on aquatic connectivity. The NAACC relied on rapid field-based assessments, which have been shown to be a useful tool for gathering information necessary for prioritization. However, the rapid assessment protocol developed from the NAACC initiative is not applicable to tidal crossings as it does not address two-directional flow, daily water depth fluctuations, or many of the species likely present in coastal habitats. The goal of this report is to provide the background necessary to create guidelines and rapid assessment tools for assessing risk posed to aquatic organism passage at tidal crossings. To accomplish these goals, this report identifies species present in tidally influenced coastal wetlands, the unique traits they may display that puts them at risk for detrimental impact from impeded passage, and passage threats unique to tidal crossings that are not addressed by protocols designed for non-tidal systems. Species lists were compiled through literature reviews and discussions with regional researchers and managers familiar with coastal ecosystems or fish passage concerns. Life history traits, environmental sensitivities, and movement patterns for each species were compiled to build a database that can be queried to identify species that are highly vulnerable to impeded passage at tidal crossings (Available at: https://umass.box.com/s/w5mhokxjxshyxmr7si2v0gzcypcitu9d ). These risk factors for species, combined with passage threats associated with specific crossing characteristics are discussed in this report. The species list is thorough enough to provide a baseline summary of the types of threats experienced by aquatic organisms at tidal road-stream crossings, but it is not exhaustive. Unique ecosystems, species assemblages, management goals, and prioritization models may require different approaches and solutions. Thus, care must be taken to ensure that assessment tools are appropriate to a project’s target species, habitats, and scale.

Cooperator Science Series↗

Report of the American Ornithologists' Union Committee on Conservation, 1976-77. The recovery team-recovery plan approach to conservation of endangered species; A status summary and appraisal

The U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973 (P.L. 93-205) identifies the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), under authority delegated by the Secretary of the Interior, as the lead agency charged with the conservation of most endangered species in the United States. Some marine species are the responsibility of the Secretary of Commerce, and the responsibility for marine turtles is shared. In 1972 the USFWS sent preliminary instructions to certain field researchers to develop a unified coordinated plan for the recovery of the species they were working with. These were the precursors of recovery teams and recovery plans. The plans, and the teams to draft and help implement them, became one significant means of fulfilling the USFWS' obligations under the Endangered Species Act, particularly Sections 6 and 7, which deal with state and interagency cooperation.

The Auk↗

Hydrology and physiography of the Salton Sea, California

The increased utilization of the Salton Sea and its shore for recreation, the development of residential complexes on its shore, and the encroachment of the sea into these developments have emphasized the need for a concise summary of hydrologic and physiographic information concerning the area. This report attempts to fill that need. The report was authorized by a cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Department of Water Resources. It was prepared under the general direction of Walter Hofmann, district chief of the Water Resources Division of the Geological Survey, at Menlo Park.

California↗

Conservation buffer distance estimates for Greater Sage-Grouse: a review

This report was prepared at the request of the U.S. Department of the Interior and is a compilation and summary of published scientific studies that evaluate the influence of anthropogenic activities and infrastructure on Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse) populations. The purpose of this report is to provide a convenient reference for land managers and others who are working to develop biologically relevant and socioeconomically practical buffer distances around sage-grouse habitats. The framework for this summary includes (1) addressing the potential effects of anthropogenic land use and disturbances on sage-grouse populations, (2) providing ecologically based interpretations of evidence from the scientific literature, and (3) informing implementation of conservation buffers around sage-grouse communal breeding locations&mdash;known as leks. We do not make specific management recommendations but instead provide summarized information, citations, and interpretation of findings available in scientific literature. We also recognize that because of variation in populations, habitats, development patterns, social context, and other factors, for a particular disturbance type, there is no single distance that is an appropriate buffer for all populations and habitats across the sage-grouse range. Thus, we report values for distances upon which protective, conservation buffers might be based, in conjunction with other considerations. We present this information for six categories of land use or disturbance typically found in land-use plans which are representative of the level of definition available in the scientific literature: surface disturbance (multiple causes; immediate and cumulative influences); linear features (roads); energy development (oil, gas, wind, and solar); tall structures (electrical, communication, and meteorological); low structures (fences and buildings); and activities (noise and related disruptions). Minimum and maximum distances for observed effects found in the scientific literature, as well as a distance range for possible conservation buffers based on interpretation of multiple sources, expert knowledge of the authors regarding affected areas, and the distribution of birds around leks are provided for each of the six categories These interpreted values for buffer distances are an attempt to balance the extent of protected areas with multiple land-use requirements using estimates of the distribution of sage-grouse habitat. Conservation efforts may then focus on the overlap between potential effect zone and important habitats. We provide a brief discussion of some of the most relevant literature for each category. References associated with the minimum and maximum values are identified in the References Cited section with corresponding symbols. Distances in this report reflect radii around lek locations because these locations are typically (although not universally) known, and management plans often refer to these locations. Lek sites are most representative of breeding habitats, but their locations are focal points within populations, and as such, protective buffers around lek sites can offer a useful solution for identifying and conserving seasonal habitats required by sage-grouse throughout their life cycle. However, knowledge of local and regional patterns of seasonal habitat use may improve conservation of those important areas, especially regarding the distribution and utilization of nonbreeding season habitats (which may be underrepresented in lek-based designations).

Open-File Report↗

"Report a Landslide” A website to engage the public in identifying geologic hazards

Direct observation by people is the most practical way of identifying, locating, and describing most damaging landslides. In an effort to increase public awareness of landslide hazards and encourage public participation in collecting basic data about landslides, the USGS recently launched a website called “Report a landslide.” The website is modeled in part after the highly successful USGS website “Did you feel it?” which has been used for several years to gather data from the public about intensity of felt earthquakes. The new “Report a landslide” website encourages visitors to report where and when they observed a landslide and to classify the landslide by movement type. Interested users also can report information about damage and casualties, dimensions, and simple geological observations, and can submit photographs of the landslide. Once a user submits a report, the location of the reported landslide appears on a map, and the location is linked to a summary of submitted data. Photos are reviewed prior to posting on the event page. By adding existing USGS data from historical landslides and promoting the website in the wake of large, regional landslide events, we hope to generate widespread awareness and interest in the website. The “Report a landslide” site has great potential for eventually creating a nationwide source of basic landslide data.

Conference Paper↗

Summary of U.S. Geological Survey investigations and hydrologic conditions in the Southwest Florida Water Management District for 1978

This report summarizes water-resources investigations in the Southwest Florida Water Management District performed by the U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, for fiscal year 1978. The investigations are part of the Federal program of appraising the nation 's water resources. The cooperative program for fiscal year 1978 included 37 interpretive investigations. Abstracts of 30 reports released during 1978 and a bibliography of reports released since 1933 are included. The hydrologic setting of southwest Florida and discussions of surface-water, ground-water, and quality-of-water conditions are given. Hydrologic conditions in southwest Florida are described and illustrated by hydrographs of selected surface-water, ground-water and lake-stage data collection sites. In addition, summaries of water-use data and data on the regional observation monitor-well program are provided. (Kosco-USGS)

Florida↗

Modeled future peak streamflows in four coastal Maine rivers

To safely and economically design bridges and culverts, it is necessary to compute the magnitude of peak streamflows that have specified annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). Annual precipitation and air temperature in the northeastern United States are, in general, projected to increase during the 21st century. It is therefore important for engineers and resource managers to understand how peak flows may change in the future. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT), presents modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. To estimate future peak streamflows at the four basins in this study, historical values for climate (temperature and precipitation) in the basins were adjusted by different amounts and input to a hydrologic model of each study basin. To encompass the projected changes in climate in coastal Maine by the end of the 21st century, air temperatures were adjusted by four different amounts, from -3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (-2 degrees Celsius (ºC)) to +10.8 ºF (+6 ºC) of observed temperatures. Precipitation was adjusted by three different percentage values from -15 percent to +30 percent of observed precipitation. The resulting 20 combinations of temperature and precipitation changes (includes the no-change scenarios) were input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) watershed models, and annual daily maximum peak flows were calculated for each combination. Modeled peak flows from the adjusted changes in temperature and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled peak flows. Annual daily maximum peak flows increase or decrease, depending on whether temperature or precipitation is adjusted; increases in air temperature (with no change in precipitation) lead to decreases in peak flows, whereas increases in precipitation (with no change in temperature) lead to increases in peak flows. As the magnitude of air temperatures increase in the four basins, peak flows decrease by larger amounts. If precipitation is held constant (no change from historical values), 17 to 26 percent decreases in peak flow occur at the four basins when temperature is increased by 7.2°F. If temperature is held constant, 26 to 38 percent increases in peak flow result from a 15-percent increase in precipitation. The largest decreases in peak flows at the four basins result from 15-percent decreases in precipitation combined with temperature increases of 10.8°F. The largest increases in peak flows generally result from 30-percent increases in precipitation combined with 3.6 °F decreases in temperatures. In many cases when temperature and precipitation both increase, small increases or decreases in annual daily maximum peak flows result. For likely changes projected for the northeastern United States for the middle of the 21st century (temperature increase of 3.6 °F and precipitation increases of 0 to 15 percent), peak-flow changes at the four coastal Maine basins in this study are modeled to be evenly distributed between increases and decreases of less than 25 percent. Peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs (equivalent to 2-year and 100-year recurrence interval peak flows, respectively) were calculated for the four basins in the study using the PRMS-modeled annual daily maximum peak flows. Modeled peak flows with 50-percent and 1-percent AEPs with adjusted temperatures and precipitation were compared to unadjusted (historical) modeled values. Changes in peak flows with 50-percent AEPs are similar to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow; changes in peak flows with 1-percent AEPs are similar in pattern to changes in annual daily maximum peak flow, but some of the changes associated with increasing precipitation are much larger than changes in annual daily maximum peak flow. Substantial decreases in maximum annual winter snowpack water equivalent are modeled to occur with increasing air temperatures at the four basins in the study. (Snowpack is the snow on the ground that accumulates during a winter, and water equivalent is the amount of water in a snowpack if it were melted.) The decrease in modeled peak flows with increasing air temperature, given no change in precipitation amount, is likely caused by these decreases in winter snowpack and resulting decreases in snowmelt runoff. This Scientific Investigations Report, prepared in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, presents a summary of modeled changes in peak flows at four basins in coastal Maine on the basis of projected changes in air temperature and precipitation. The full Fact Sheet (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2013) is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3021/.

Maine↗

Modifications made to ModelMuse to add support for the Saturated-Unsaturated Transport model (SUTRA)

This report (1) describes modifications to ModelMuse,as described in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Techniques and Methods (TM) 6–A29 (Winston, 2009), to add support for the Saturated-Unsaturated Transport model (SUTRA) (Voss and Provost, 2002; version of September 22, 2010) and (2) supplements USGS TM 6–A29. Modifications include changes to the main ModelMuse window where the model is designed, addition of methods for generating a finite-element mesh suitable for SUTRA, defining how some functions shouldapply when using a finite-element mesh rather than a finite-difference grid (as originally programmed in ModelMuse), and applying spatial interpolation to angles. In addition, the report describes ways of handling objects on the front view of the model and displaying data. A tabulation contains a summary of the new or modified dialog boxes.

Techniques and Methods↗