SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Risk Analysis”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 901 records · Page 50Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Implications of spatially variable costs and habitat conversion risk in landscape-scale conservation planning

“Strategic habitat conservation” refers to a process used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to develop cost-efficient strategies for conserving wildlife populations and their habitats. Strategic habitat conservation focuses on resolving uncertainties surrounding habitat conservation to meet specific wildlife population objectives (i.e., targets) and developing tools to guide where conservation actions should be focused on the landscape. Although there are examples of using optimization models to highlight where conservation should be delivered, such methods often do not explicitly account for spatial variation in the costs of conservation actions. Furthermore, many planning approaches assume that habitat protection is a preferred option, but they do not assess its value relative to other actions, such as restoration. We developed a case study to assess the implications of accounting for and ignoring spatial variation in conservation costs in optimizing conservation targets. We included assumptions about habitat loss to determine the extent to which protection or restoration would be necessary to meet an established population target. Our case study focused on optimal placement of grassland protection or restoration actions to influence bobolink Dolichonyx oryzivorus populations in the tallgrass prairie ecoregion of the north central United States. Our results show that not accounting for spatially variable costs doubled or tripled the cost of meeting the population target. Furthermore, our results suggest that one should not assume that protecting existing habitat is always a preferred option. Rather, our results show that the balance between protection and restoration can be influenced by a combination of desired targets, assumptions about habitat loss, and the relative cost of the two actions. Our analysis also points out how difficult it may be to reach targets, given the expense to meet them. We suggest that a full accounting of expected costs and benefits will help to guide development of viable management actions and meaningful conservation plans.

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dak↗

USGS2026

Widespread occurrence of Magnéli phases in wildland-urban interface fire ashes

The increasing activity of wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires has raised concerns regarding the potential environmental and human health impacts of residual ash remaining after burning. In this study, we investigated the concentration and speciation of titanium in WUI fire ash. Total titanium concentrations in WUI fire ash ranged from 0.53 to 80 g kg –1 . Synchrotron-based macro- and microscale X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES and μXANES, respectively) spectroscopy were used to quantify the relative abundance of major Ti phases in the fire ash, and the results were corroborated by high resolution-transmission electron microscopy (HR-TEM) measurements. Rutile (α-TiO 2 ), anatase (β-TiO 2 ), ilmenite (FeTiO 3 ), and titanium(III) oxide (Ti 2 O 3 ) were detected in all 20 ashes investigated by XANES and accounted for 0.26–0.83, 0.19–0.83, 0.33, and 0.17–0.72 of the spectral weight, respectively. Deeper analysis by μXANES of one sample demonstrated that Ti-bearing particles occurred as a mixture of rutile (α-TiO 2 ), anatase (β-TiO 2 ), ilmenite (FeTiO 3 ), and titanium(III) oxide Ti 2 O 3, with the absence of a pure Ti 2 O 3 phase. The presence of Ti 2 O 3 in the WUI fire ash is ascribed to the reduction of rutile and anatase to Magnéli titania (Ti n O 2 n– 1 , n = 4–9), which is estimated to be the dominant phase of titanium in the 20 WUI fire ashes investigated by XANES. The occurrence of Magnéli titania was corroborated by HR-TEM. Our findings demonstrate the impact of WUI fires on titanium speciation; fires convert titanium dioxides (e.g., rutile and anatase) to reduced titanium phases (e.g., Magnéli titania). Based on HR-TEM analyses, most of the titanium-bearing particles were less than 500 nm in size. Magnéli particles have been shown to be more toxic than rutile and anatase and have been linked to reduced lung function. Therefore, this study provides critical insights into the pollution characteristics and potential health risks of WUI fire ashes and associated particles, which are currently poorly understood.

California↗

USGS2006

Linking landscape characteristics to mineral site use by band-tailed pigeons in Western Oregon: Coarse-filter conservation with fine-filter tuning

Mineral sites are scarce resources of high ion concentration used heavily by the Pacific Coast subpopulation of band-tailed pigeons. Over 20% of all known mineral sites used by band-tailed pigeons in western Oregon, including all hot springs, have been abandoned. Prior investigations have not analyzed stand or landscape level habitat composition in relation to band-tailed pigeon use of mineral sites. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the influence of habitat types, identified from Gap Analysis Program (GAP) products at two spatial scales, on the odds of mineral site use in Oregon (n = 69 currently used and 20 historically used). Our results indicated that the odds of current use were negatively associated with non-forested terrestrial and private land area around mineral sites. Similarly, the odds of current mineral site use were positively associated with forested and special status (GAP stewardship codes 1 and 2) land area. The most important variable associated with the odds of mineral site use was the amount of non-forested land cover at either spatial scale. Our results demonstrate the utility of meso-scale geographic information designed for regional, coarse-filter approaches to conservation in fine-filter investigation of wildlife-habitat relationships. Adjacent landcover and ownership status explain the pattern of use for known mineral sites in western Oregon. In order for conservation and management activities for band-tailed pigeons to be successful, mineral sites need to be addressed as important and vulnerable resources. Management of band-tailed pigeons should incorporate the potential for forest management activities and land ownership patterns to influence the risk of mineral site abandonment.

Natural Areas Journal↗

USGS2026

Effects of wildfire on soil hydraulic properties in the western Oregon Cascades

Wildfires can substantially impact the hydrology of forested watersheds, increasing the risk of hydrologic hazards such as flash floods and debris flows. Soil hydraulic properties related to infiltration are a key control in determining the timing and magnitude of these hydrogeomorphic events. In our study, we collected 445 soil cores from burned (216 cores) and unburned (229 cores) reference catchments and analyzed them for soil hydraulic properties 10 months after the 2022 Cedar Creek Fire in Oregon, USA. We observed significantly greater field-saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K fs ), sorptivity ( S ), and wetting front potential ( Ψ f ) in burned soils relative to unburned soils, with median ratios of 5.7, 4.4, and 5.0, respectively. Among low-, moderate-, and high burn severity groups, soil hydraulic properties were not statistically different. Reductions in median soil bulk density with increasing burn severity suggested an expansion of pore sizes, which may have been partially responsible for increasing K fs and S . Additionally, in some burned soil samples, the increase in soil hydraulic properties may have been partially related to a concurrent reduction in “natural background” water repellency that is characteristic of dry, unburned soils in the Western Cascades. We observed no evidence of spatial autocorrelation in K fs using semivariogram analysis. Principal component analysis paired with a k- means cluster analysis suggested that soil physical properties explained variations in soil hydraulic properties better than landscape attributes. Although there is a lack of regional results for comparison, our results trend in the opposite direction from drier, lower net primary productivity regions that are typically studied for post-wildfire soil hydraulic properties.

Oregon↗

USGS2022

Rapidly assessing social characteristics of drought preparedness and decision making: A guide for practitioners

Executive Summary This guide is intended to provide managers, decision makers, and other practitioners with advice on conducting a rapid assessment of the social dimensions of drought. Findings from a rapid assessment can provide key social context that may aid in decision making, such as when preparing a drought plan, allocating local drought resilience funding, or gathering the support of local agencies and organizations for collective action related to drought mitigation. Part I —In the introduction to Part I, we describe the unique problems associated with drought—particularly its slow onset and long duration, which make it difficult to define drought—and highlight five major types of drought (see Box 1). We introduce a few social dimensions of drought (such as economic and institutional perspectives), demonstrate how these dimensions can be interrelated, and describe a few of the modern challenges (such as transformational change and cascading risks) that practitioners face. We also provide background on the rapid assessment method, first describing it as a “snapshot” of the social landscape, then providing some key advantages of the method (it can be quicker and cheaper than more in-depth methods), and lastly describing how secondary data and other methods can help overcome some of the disadvantages of rapid assessments. Then, after summarizing the process of developing this guide, we outline the process of using the guide. Importantly, we compare the guide to a travel guide, which provides many different types of information and is best approached with specific interests in mind. Ultimately, we hope for this guide to be malleable enough that it can be helpful to researchers and practitioners in many different contexts, using many different research methods. Related to how to use the guide, we characterize the type of person who might be motivated to use this guide. We also specify key qualifications for a researcher conducting a rapid assessment, drawing particular attention to training on ethical considerations. We sketch out key considerations when choosing social dimensions of drought to focus on, and the type of data used for analysis. First, it is important to note that in this guide we provide nine important social dimensions of drought, but this is by no means a comprehensive list, and a researcher may find that other dimensions better fit their local context. Second, we provide some pros and cons to a narrow (focusing on just a few dimensions or at a smaller scale) versus broad research focus. Lastly, we describe the pros and cons of using primary versus secondary data (one strategy is to use both, sequentially) and qualitative versus quantitative data. Ultimately, Part I of this guide functions as an exploration of the various decisions a researcher will make when designing a rapid assessment. These decisions will inform the type of findings and other outcomes that result from the rapid assessment. Part II —Part II of this guide introduces nine key social dimensions of drought: defining the problem of drought, individual perceptions, social relationships, technology, economics and livelihoods, water governance, decision making, information, and social vulnerability. Each section provides background and key considerations related to a particular dimension, as well as ideas for how to explore the dimension via a rapid assessment. Part III —Part III of this guide provides two hypothetical examples of how one might use this guide to aid the practitioner in implementing the lessons learned here. In the first example, a watershed group uses two dimensions, defining the problem of drought and social relationships, to inform a community meeting about protecting fisheries from drought. In the second example, a resource manager uses the economics and livelihoods and social vulnerability dimensions to inform the development of a livestock grazing drought management plan.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2011

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ), western pine beetle ( Dendroctonus brevicomis ), and pine engraver ( Ips pini) . This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2 million km 2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species’ ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time.

Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nev↗

USGS1999

New reporting procedures based on long-term method detection levels and some considerations for interpretations of water-quality data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory

This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory's approach for determining long-term method detection levels and establishing reporting levels, details relevant new reporting conventions, and provides preliminary guidance on interpreting data reported with the new conventions. At the long-term method detection level concentration, the risk of a false positive detection (analyte reported present at the long-term method detection level when not in sample) is no more than 1 percent. However, at the long-term method detection level, the risk of a false negative occurrence (analyte reported not present when present at the long-term method detection level concentration) is up to 50 percent. Because this false negative rate is too high for use as a default 'less than' reporting level, a more reliable laboratory reporting level is set at twice the determined long-term method detection level. For all methods, concentrations measured between the laboratory reporting level and the long-term method detection level will be reported as estimated concentrations. Non-detections will be censored to the laboratory reporting level. Adoption of the new reporting conventions requires a full understanding of how low-concentration data can be used and interpreted and places responsibility for using and presenting final data with the user rather than with the laboratory. Users must consider that (1) new laboratory reporting levels may differ from previously established minimum reporting levels, (2) long-term method detection levels and laboratory reporting levels may change over time, and (3) estimated concentrations are less certain than concentrations reported above the laboratory reporting level. The availability of uncensored but qualified low-concentration data for interpretation and statistical analysis is a substantial benefit to the user. A decision to censor data after they are reported from the laboratory may still be made by the user, if merited, on the basis of the intended use of the data.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

Amplification and transport of an endemic fish disease by an introduced species

The introduction of American shad from the Atlantic to the Pacific coast of North America in the late 1800’s and the subsequent population expansion in the 1980’s resulted in the amplification of Ichthyophonus sp., a Mesomycetozoean parasite of wild marine fishes. Sequence analysis of the ribosomal DNA gene complex (small subunit and internal transcribed spacer regions) and Ichthyophonus epidemiological characteristics indicate a low probability that Ichthyophonus was co-introduced with American shad from the Atlantic; rather, Ichthyophonus was likely endemic to marine areas of the Pacific region and amplified by the expanding population of a highly susceptible host species. The migratory life history of shad resulted in the transport of amplified Ichthyophonus from its endemic region in the NE Pacific to the Columbia River watershed. An Ichthyophonus epizootic occurred among American shad in the Columbia River during 2007, when infection prevalence was 72%, and 57% of the infections were scored as moderate or heavy intensities. The epizootic occurred near the record peak of shad biomass in the Columbia River, and corresponded to an influx of 1,595 mt of infected shad tissues into the Columbia River. A high potential for parasite spillback and the establishment of a freshwater Ichthyophonus life cycle in the Columbia River results from currently elevated infection pressures, broad host range, plasticity in Ichthyophonus life history stages, and precedents for establishment of the parasite in other freshwater systems. The results raise questions regarding the risk for sympatric salmonids and the role of Ichthyophonus as a population-limiting factor affecting American shad in the Columbia River.

Biological Invasions↗

USGS2021

Does geomorphology determine vulnerability of mangrove coasts to sea-level rise?

The greatest climate-based threat to coastlines worldwide is sea-level rise. We tested the hypothesis that tropical coasts fringed by mangroves and receiving high inputs of terrigenous sediment are less vulnerable to sea-level rise than biogenic systems dependent upon peat formation for vertical land development. An analysis of published data spanning a range of geomorphic settings showed that mineral accretion was a poor predictor of vulnerability to rising sea level. We additionally compared two oceanic island systems representing two extremes along this sediment gradient to further examine controls on elevation dynamics in minerogenic versus biogenic mangrove systems. Minerogenic systems characterized by intermediate to high rates of mineral sedimentation (Pacific high islands in Micronesia) were not better buffered against sea-level rise because of high subsidence rates. Peat-forming systems (Caribbean low islands in Belize) kept pace with relative sea-level rise (combined ocean and land movements) because of subsurface expansion driven by root matter accumulation. The data were not consistent with the paradigm that tropical coastlines characterized by peat-forming mangroves are generally more vulnerable to sea-level rise compared to minerogenic systems; however, they are not necessarily equally sensitive to the same external and internal forces controlling soil elevations. Our findings demonstrate that reliance on surface accretion data alone can lead to an inaccurate evaluation of coastal vulnerability and why all surface and subsurface land movements must be considered in relation to local sea-level trends to assess risk of submergence. Recognition of such differences is essential to proper management of tropical coastlines to ensure their resilience in the face of future sea-level rise.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Reptiles and amphibians

Summary – We reviewed all the peer-reviewed scientific publications we could find on the known and potential effects of wind farm development, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning on reptiles and amphibians (collectively herpetofauna) worldwide. Both groups are declining globally due to a multitude of threats including energy development. Effect studies were limited to the long-term research by the authors on Agassiz’s Desert Tortoise ecology and behavior at single operational wind farm in California, US and an analysis of the effects of wind farm installation on species richness of vertebrates including reptiles and amphibians in northwestern Portugal. Research on Agassiz’s Desert Tortoise found few demonstrable differences in biological parameters between populations in the wind farm and those in more natural habitats. High reproductive output is due to the regional climate and not to the presence or operation of the wind farm. Site operations have resulted in death and injury to a small number of adult tortoises and over the long-term tortoises now appear to avoid the areas of greatest turbine concentration. Research in Portugal using models and simulations based on empirical data show that vertebrate species richness (including herpetofauna) decreased by almost 20% after the installation of only two large monopole turbines per 250 x 250 m plot. Knowledge of the known responses of herpetofauna to various disturbances allows identification of potential impacts from construction material acquisition in offsite areas, mortality and stress due to impacts of roads and related infrastructure, destruction and modification of habitat, habitat fragmentation and barriers to gene flow, noise, vibration, electromagnetic field generation, heat from buried high voltage transmission lines, alteration of local and regional climate, predator attraction, and increased risk of fire. Research on herpetofauna lags far behind what is needed and, in particular, before-after-control-impact studies are critically needed to identify cause and effect relationships in order to develop effective mitigation strategies for any negative impacts.

Book chapter↗

USGS2012

Estimated probability of postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Fire burn area, southwestern New Mexico

In May and June 2012, the Whitewater-Baldy Fire burned approximately 1,200 square kilometers (300,000 acres) of the Gila National Forest, in southwestern New Mexico. The burned landscape is now at risk of damage from postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. This report presents a preliminary hazard assessment of the debris-flow potential from 128 basins burned by the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. A pair of empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burned area. The models incorporate measures of areal burned extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. In response to the 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, modeling indicated that four basins have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence (greater than or equal to 80 percent). For the 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional 14 basins are included, and for the 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional eight basins, 20 percent of the total, have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence. In addition, probability analysis along the stream segments can identify specific reaches of greatest concern for debris flows within a basin. Basins with a high probability of debris-flow occurrence were concentrated in the west and central parts of the burned area, including tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, and Willow Creek. Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from about 3,000-4,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) to greater than 500,000 m 3 for all design storms modeled. Drainage basins with estimated volumes greater than 500,000 m 3 included tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Willow Creek, Iron Creek, and West Fork Mogollon Creek. Drainage basins with estimated debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 m 3 for the 25-year-recurrence event, 24 percent of the basins modeled, also include tributaries to Deep Creek, Mineral Creek, Gilita Creek, West Fork Gila River, Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek, among others. Basins with the highest combined probability and volume relative hazard rankings for the 25-year-recurrence rainfall include tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, Willow Creek, West Fork Gila River, West Fork Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek. Debris flows from Whitewater, Mineral, and Willow Creeks could affect the southwestern New Mexico communities of Glenwood, Alma, and Willow Creek. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where emergency erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be necessary within a 2- to 3-year period of vulnerability following the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. This work is preliminary and is subject to revision. It is being provided because of the need for timely "best science" information. The assessment herein is provided on the condition that neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the U.S. Government may be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the assessment.

New Mexico↗

USGS2012

Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–A is the first in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Western United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes B, C, and D provide similar analyses for the Great Plains, the Midwest–South Central United States, and the Eastern United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Western United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Western United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov .

Professional Paper↗

USGS2016

Status and trends of land change in the Eastern United States—1973 to 2000

Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–D is the fourth in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Eastern United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, B, and C provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the Great Plains of the United States, and the Midwest–South Central United States, respectively. The assessments of land-use and land-cover trends are conducted on an ecoregion-by-ecoregion basis, and each ecoregion assessment is guided by a nationally consistent study design that includes mapping, statistical methods, field studies, and analysis. Individual assessments provide a picture of the characteristics of land change occurring in a given ecoregion; in combination, they provide a framework for understanding the complex national mosaic of change and also the causes and consequences of change. Thus, each volume in this series provides a regional assessment of how (and how fast) land use and land cover are changing, and why. The four volumes together form the first comprehensive picture of land change across the Nation. Geographic understanding of land-use and land-cover change is directly relevant to a wide variety of stakeholders, including land and resource managers, policymakers, and scientists. The chapters in this volume present brief summaries of the patterns and rates of land change observed in each ecoregion in the Eastern United States, together with field photographs, statistics, and comparisons with other assessments. In addition, a synthesis chapter summarizes the scope of land change observed across the entire Eastern United States. The studies provide a way of integrating information across the landscape, and they form a critical component in the efforts to understand how land use and land cover affect important issues such as the provision of ecological goods and services and also the determination of risks to, and vulnerabilities of, human communities. Results from this project also are published in peer-reviewed journals, and they are further used to produce maps of change and other tools for land management, as well as to provide inputs for carbon-cycle modeling and other climate change research. This report is only one of the products produced by USGS on land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Other reports and land-cover statistics are available online at http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov .

Professional Paper↗

USGS2022

Forecasting explosions at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia, based on SO2 emission rates

Dome-building volcanic eruptions are often associated with frequent Vulcanian explosions, which constitute a substantial threat to proximal communities. One proposed mechanism driving such explosions is the sealing of the shallow volcanic system followed by pressurization due to gas accumulation beneath the seal. We investigate this hypothesis at Sinabung Volcano (Sumatra, Indonesia), which has been in a state of eruption since August 2010. In 2013, the volcano began erupting a lava dome and lava flow, and frequent explosions produced eruptive columns that rose many kilometers into the atmosphere and at times sent pyroclastic density currents down the southeast flanks. A network of scanning Differential Optical Absorption Spectrometers (DOAS) was installed on the volcano’s eastern flank in 2016 to continuously monitor SO 2 emission rates during daytime hours. Analysis of the DOAS data from October 2016 to September 2017 revealed that passive SO 2 emissions were generally lower in the 5 days leading up to explosive events (∼100 t/d) than was common in 5-day periods leading up to days on which no explosions occurred (∼200 t/d). The variability of passive SO 2 emissions, expressed as the standard deviation, also took on a slightly wider range of values before days with explosions (0–103 t/d at 1-sigma) than before days without explosions (43–117 t/d). These observations are consistent with the aforementioned seal-failure model, where the sealing of the volcanic conduit blocks gas emissions and leads to pressurization and potential Vulcanian explosions. We develop a forecasting methodology that allows calculation of a relative daily explosion probability based solely on measurements of the SO 2 emission rate in the preceding days. We then calculate forecast explosion probabilities for the remaining SO 2 emissions dataset (October 2017—September 2021). While the absolute accuracy of forecast explosion probabilities is variable, the method can inform the probability of an explosion occurring relative to that on other days in each test period. This information can be used operationally by volcano observatories to assess relative risk. The SO 2 emissions-based forecasting method is likely applicable to other open vent volcanoes experiencing dome-forming eruptions.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

USGS2016

Population-specific life histories contribute to metapopulation viability

Restoration efforts can be improved by understanding how variations in life-history traits occur within populations of the same species living in different environments. This can be done by first understanding the demographic responses of natural occurring populations. Population viability analysis continues to be useful to species management and conservation with sensitivity analysis aiding in the understanding of population dynamics. In this study, using life-table response experiments and elasticity analyses, we investigated how population-specific life-history demographic responses contributed to the metapopulation viability of the Federally threatened Pitcher's thistle ( Cirsium pitcheri ). Specifically, we tested the following hypotheses: (1) Subpopulations occupying different environments within a metapopulation have independent demographic responses and (2) advancing succession results in a shift from a demographic response focused on growth and fecundity to one dominated by stasis. Our results showed that reintroductions had a positive contribution to the metapopulation growth rate as compared to native populations which had a negative contribution. We found no difference in succession on the contribution to metapopulation viability. In addition, we identified distinct population-specific contributions to metapopulation viability and were able to associate specific life-history demographic responses. For example, the positive impact of Miller High Dunes population on the metapopulation growth rate resulted from high growth contributions, whereas increased time of plant in stasis for the State Park Big Blowout population resulted in negative contributions. A greater understanding of how separate populations respond in their corresponding environment may ultimately lead to more effective management strategies aimed at reducing extinction risk. We propose the continued use of sensitivity analyses to evaluate population-specific demographic influences on metapopulation viability. In understanding the underlying causes of the projected extinction probabilities of each population and identifying broad-scale contributions of different populations to the metapopulation, the process of pinpointing target populations is simplified. More detailed analyses can then be applied to the target populations to increase population viability and consequently metapopulation viability. Based on our research, we suggest that the best approach to improve the overall metapopulation viability is to manage the contributions to population growth for each population separately.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2024

Population genetic structure and demographic history reconstruction of introduced flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris) in two US Mid-Atlantic rivers

Population genetic analysis of invasive populations can provide valuable insights into the source of introductions, pathways for expansion, and their demographic histories. Flathead catfish ( Pylodictis olivaris ) are a prolific invasive species with high fecundity, long-distance dispersal, and piscivorous feeding habits that can lead to declines in native fish populations. In this study, we analyse the genetics of invasive P. olivaris in the Mid-Atlantic region to assess their connectivity and attempt to reconstruct the history of introduced populations. Based on an assessment across 13 microsatellite loci, P. olivaris from the Susquehanna River system ( N = 537), Schuylkill River ( N = 33), and Delaware River ( N = 1) have low genetic diversity (global H obs = 0.504), although we detected no evidence of substantial inbreeding ( F IS = −0.083 to 0.022). P. olivaris from these different river systems were genetically distinct, suggesting separate introductions. However, population structure was much weaker within each river system and exhibited a pattern of high connectivity, with some evidence of isolation by distance. P. olivaris from the Susquehanna and Schuylkill rivers showed evidence for recent genetic bottlenecks, and demographic models were consistent with historical records, which suggest that populations were established by recent founder events consisting of a small number of individuals. Our results show the risk posed by small introductions of P. olivaris , which can spread widely once a population is established, and highlight the importance of prevention and sensitive early detection methods to prevent the spread of P. olivaris in the future.

Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2020

Flood-frequency estimation for very low annual exceedance probabilities using historical, paleoflood, and regional information with consideration of nonstationarity

Streamflow estimates for floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.001 or lower are needed to accurately portray risks to critical infrastructure, such as nuclear powerplants and large dams. However, extrapolating flood-frequency curves developed from at-site systematic streamflow records to very low annual exceedance probabilities (less than 0.001) results in large uncertainties in the streamflow estimates. Traditionally, methods for statistically estimating flood frequency have relied on the systematic streamflow record, which provides a time series of annual maximum flood peaks, often including some historical peaks. However, most peak-flow records are less than 100 years, and uncertainties are large when trying to extrapolate magnitudes of very low annual exceedance probability events. Other data may be available that extend the record beyond the systematic dataset. Historical data are defined as data from outside the period of systematic records but within the period of human records. Examples of historical information include flood estimates from other agencies and newspaper accounts that can be translated to flood magnitude point estimates, interval estimates, or perception thresholds (such as a statement that an 1880 flood was the largest since 1869). Paleoflood data, which may also extend the dataset, include a broad range of information about flood occurrence or magnitude from sources like sediment deposits or tree rings. Several assumptions are made in flood-frequency analysis, and an understanding of whether the data conform to these assumptions is desired. A particularly difficult assumption to evaluate for flood-frequency analysis is the underlying assumption that the flood series is stationary—the assumption that a time series of peak flow varies around a constant mean within a particular range of values (constant variance). As the hydrologic community’s understanding of natural systems and anthropogenic effects on streamflows has evolved, the community has come to understand that many surface-water systems exhibit one or more forms of nonstationarity, and thus the stationarity assumption is often violated to some degree. However, there is currently (2020) no consensus among hydrologists regarding the most appropriate flood-frequency-analysis methods for nonstationary systems, and this topic remains an active area of research. A literature review was completed to summarize the state of the science of flood frequency. The literature review highlights tools available to detect nonstationarities and identifies approaches that include external information to inform flood-frequency analysis. To demonstrate methods for initial data analysis and for incorporating historical and paleoflood information in flood-frequency analysis, five sites were selected: the Red River of the North at James Avenue Pumping Station, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; lower reach, Rapid Creek, South Dakota; Spring Creek, South Dakota; Cherry Creek near Melvin, Colorado; and Escalante River near Escalante, Utah. The sites were chosen for the availability of published historical and paleoflood data and for their geographic diversity and unique characteristics, which highlighted issues such as autocorrelation, change points, trends, outlier peaks, or short periods of record. An initial data analysis that involved examining records for autocorrelation, change points, and trends was completed for all sites. The flood-frequency analysis completed for this study used version 7.2 of the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. Multiple analyses were done on each site documenting the change in the flood-frequency curve when additional historical or paleoflood data were added. When other flood-frequency studies were available, their results were compared to the results here. The comparisons in some cases simply show the effect of additional years of data, whereas other comparisons show results from probability distributions or fitting methods other than those used in PeakFQ. For the Red River of the North, flood-frequency analysis shows that paleoflood data appear necessary to reasonably estimate very low annual exceedance probabilities. For the analysis of the lower reach of Rapid Creek and Spring Creek, paleoflood information helped put a high outlier from the systematic period in context; however, very low annual exceedance probabilities at these sites still had extraordinarily large confidence bounds. These sites also showed that paleoflood information might be transferred from one site to another, with the caveat that this is a case where we had existing paleoflood data to test the transfer of paleoflood information—this is not the case at many sites, and transferring paleoflood information requires assumptions about the comparability of floods at the sites. The Cherry Creek analysis affirmed the result of an earlier study that showed that the generalized Pareto distribution was not a good distribution for estimating very low annual exceedance probabilities. The Escalante River analysis showed that adding paleoflood information might increase uncertainty for very low annual exceedance probabilities, compared to analysis with the systematic period of record information only, when the paleoflood peaks are of much larger magnitudes than the systematic record.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño-Southern Oscillation at the global scale

Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water – a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958–2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗