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Drivers, dynamics and impacts of changing Arctic coasts

Arctic coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including rising sea levels and the loss of permafrost, sea ice and glaciers. Assessing the influence of anthropogenic warming on Arctic coastal dynamics, however, is challenged by the limited availability of observational, oceanographic and environmental data. Yet, with the majority of permafrost coasts being erosive, coupled with projected intensification of erosion and flooding, understanding these changes is critical. In this Review, we describe the morphological diversity of Arctic coasts, discuss important drivers of coastal change, explain the specific sensitivity of Arctic coasts to climate change and provide an overview of pan-Arctic shoreline change and its multifaceted impacts. Arctic coastal changes impact the human environment by threatening coastal settlements, infrastructure, cultural sites and archaeological remains. Changing sediment fluxes also impact the natural environment through carbon, nutrient and pollutant release on a magnitude that remains difficult to predict. Increasing transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary collaboration efforts will build the foundation for identifying sustainable solutions and adaptation strategies to reduce future risks for those living on, working at and visiting the rapidly changing Arctic coast.

Alaska↗

Landsat Collection 2 Level-2 Science Products

The U.S. Geological Survey produces research quality, applications ready, Level-2 Science Products derived from Landsat Collection 2 Level-1 data. These products are used to monitor, assess, and project changes in land use, land cover, and environmental conditions affecting the human condition, natural processes, and biological habitats. Landsat Collection 2 Level-2 Science Products are time-series observational data processed for consistency and continuity to measure effects of environmental change and serve as input into Landsat essential climate variable Level-3 Science Products.

Fact Sheet↗

Simulation of net infiltration and potential recharge using a distributed-parameter watershed model of the Death Valley region, Nevada and California

This report presents the development and application of the distributed-parameter watershed model, INFILv3, for estimating the temporal and spatial distribution of net infiltration and potential recharge in the Death Valley region, Nevada and California. The estimates of net infiltration quantify the downward drainage of water across the lower boundary of the root zone and are used to indicate potential recharge under variable climate conditions and drainage basin characteristics. Spatial variability in recharge in the Death Valley region likely is high owing to large differences in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, bedrock permeability, soil thickness, vegetation characteristics, and contributions to recharge along active stream channels. The quantity and spatial distribution of recharge representing the effects of variable climatic conditions and drainage basin characteristics on recharge are needed to reduce uncertainty in modeling ground-water flow. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Department of Energy, developed a regional saturated-zone ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system to help evaluate the current hydrogeologic system and the potential effects of natural or human-induced changes. Although previous estimates of recharge have been made for most areas of the Death Valley region, including the area defined by the boundary of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, the uncertainty of these estimates is high, and the spatial and temporal variability of the recharge in these basins has not been quantified. To estimate the magnitude and distribution of potential recharge in response to variable climate and spatially varying drainage basin characteristics, the INFILv3 model uses a daily water-balance model of the root zone with a primarily deterministic representation of the processes controlling net infiltration and potential recharge. The daily water balance includes precipitation (as either rain or snow), snow accumulation, sublimation, snowmelt, infiltration into the root zone, evapotranspiration, drainage, water content change throughout the root-zone profile (represented as a 6-layered system), runoff (defined as excess rainfall and snowmelt) and surface water run-on (defined as runoff that is routed downstream), and net infiltration (simulated as drainage from the bottom root-zone layer). Potential evapotranspiration is simulated using an hourly solar radiation model to simulate daily net radiation, and daily evapotranspiration is simulated as an empirical function of root zone water content and potential evapotranspiration. The model uses daily climate records of precipitation and air temperature from a regionally distributed network of 132 climate stations and a spatially distributed representation of drainage basin characteristics defined by topography, geology, soils, and vegetation to simulate daily net infiltration at all locations, including stream channels with intermittent streamflow in response to runoff from rain and snowmelt. The temporal distribution of daily, monthly, and annual net infiltration can be used to evaluate the potential effect of future climatic conditions on potential recharge. The INFILv3 model inputs representing drainage basin characteristics were developed using a geographic information system (GIS) to define a set of spatially distributed input parameters uniquely assigned to each grid cell of the INFILv3 model grid. The model grid, which was defined by a digital elevation model (DEM) of the Death Valley region, consists of 1,252,418 model grid cells with a uniform grid cell dimension of 278.5 meters in the north-south and east-west directions. The elevation values from the DEM were used with monthly regression models developed from the daily climate data to estimate the spatial distribution of daily precipitation and air temperature. The elevation values were also used to simulate atmosp

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Water Budgets: Foundations for Effective Water-Resources and Environmental Management

INTRODUCTION Water budgets provide a means for evaluating availability and sustainability of a water supply. A water budget simply states that the rate of change in water stored in an area, such as a watershed, is balanced by the rate at which water flows into and out of the area. An understanding of water budgets and underlying hydrologic processes provides a foundation for effective water-resource and environmental planning and management. Observed changes in water budgets of an area over time can be used to assess the effects of climate variability and human activities on water resources. Comparison of water budgets from different areas allows the effects of factors such as geology, soils, vegetation, and land use on the hydrologic cycle to be quantified. Human activities affect the natural hydrologic cycle in many ways. Modifications of the land to accommodate agriculture, such as installation of drainage and irrigation systems, alter infiltration, runoff, evaporation, and plant transpiration rates. Buildings, roads, and parking lots in urban areas tend to increase runoff and decrease infiltration. Dams reduce flooding in many areas. Water budgets provide a basis for assessing how a natural or human-induced change in one part of the hydrologic cycle may affect other aspects of the cycle. This report provides an overview and qualitative description of water budgets as foundations for effective water-resources and environmental management of freshwater hydrologic systems. Perhaps of most interest to the hydrologic community, the concepts presented are also relevant to the fields of agriculture, atmospheric studies, meteorology, climatology, ecology, limnology, mining, water supply, flood control, reservoir management, wetland studies, pollution control, and other areas of science, society, and industry. The first part of the report describes water storage and movement in the atmosphere, on land surface, and in the subsurface, as well as water exchange among these compartments. Our ability to measure these phenomena and inherent uncertainties in measurement techniques also are discussed. The latter part of the report presents a number of case studies that illustrate how water-budget studies are conducted, documents how human activities affect water budgets, and describes how water budgets are used to address water and environmental issues.

Circular↗

A science plan for a comprehensive assessment of water supply in the region underlain by fractured rock in Maryland

The fractured rock region of Maryland, which includes land areas north and west of the Interstate 95 corridor, is the source of water supply for approximately 4.4 million Marylanders, or approximately 76 percent of the State's population. Whereas hundreds of thousands of residents rely on wells (both domestic and community), millions rely on surface-water sources. In this region, land use, geology, topography, water withdrawals, impoundments, and other factors affect water-flow characteristics. The unconfined groundwater systems are closely interconnected with rivers and streams, and are affected by seasonal and climatic variations. During droughts, groundwater levels drop, thereby decreasing well yields, and in some cases, wells have gone dry. Low ground-water levels contribute to reduced streamflows, which in turn, can lead to reduced habitat for aquatic life. Increased demand, over-allocation, population growth, and climate change can affect the future sustainability of water supplies in the region of Maryland underlain by fractured rock. In response to recommendations of the 2008 Advisory Committee on the Management and Protection of the State's Water Resources report, the Maryland Department of the Environment's Water Supply Program, the Maryland Geological Survey, the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Monitoring and Non-Tidal Assessment (MANTA) Division, and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed a science plan for a comprehensive assessment that will provide new scientific information, new data analysis, and new tools for the State to better manage water resources in the fractured rock region of Maryland. The science plan lays out five goals for the comprehensive assessment: (1) develop tools for the improved management and investigation of groundwater and surface-water resources; (2) characterize factors affecting reliable yields of individual groundwater and surface-water supplies; (3) investigate impacts on nearby water withdrawal users caused by groundwater and surface-water withdrawals; (4) assess the role of streamflow and water withdrawals on the ecological integrity of streams; and (5) improve understanding of the distribution of water-quality conditions in fractured rock aquifers. To accomplish these goals, accurate data collection, review, and analysis are needed, including the study of "Research Watersheds" that can provide detailed information about the potential effects that climate change and water withdrawals may have on groundwater, streamflow, and aquatic life. The assessment planning started in 2009 and is being conducted with close interagency coordination. A Fractured Rock Aquifer Information System is currently (2012) undergoing initial development. Other major tasks that will be performed include the development of work plans for each science goal, the estimation of daily streamflow at ungaged streams, and the design and implementation of Research Watersheds. Finally, scenarios will be modeled to evaluate current water allocation permitting methodologies, investigate effects on nearby water withdrawal users caused by groundwater and surface-water withdrawals, and assess the potential impacts of climate change on water resources. Desktop and Web-based tools will be developed in order to meet the diverse research needs of the assessment. These tools, including the Fractured Rock Aquifer Information System will be continuously improved during the assessment to store relevant groundwater and surface-water data in spatially referenced databases, estimate streamflows, locate higher-yielding wells, estimate the impacts of withdrawals on nearby users, and assess the cumulative impacts of withdrawals on the aquatic resource. Tools will be developed to serve the needs of many audiences, including water resource managers, water suppliers, planners, policymakers, and other scientific investigators.

Maryl↗

An 800,000-year pollen record from Owens Lake, California: Preliminary analyses

A long sequence of fossil palynomorph assemblages from a 323-m-long core taken at Owens Lake has enabled us to evaluate the gross vegetational trends for the Owens Valley region of California over the past ~800,000 years. Shifts in vegetation composition and abundance in the study area during the Pleistocene were indicated in core sediments by marked fluctuations in the pollen frequencies of pines, junipers, and, to a lesser extent, of big sagebrush, composites, and chenopods/amaranths. The modern vegetation distribution and modern pollen rain on the eastern flank of the Sierra Nevada indicate that maximal abundances of these taxa generally characterize higher elevation subalpine and montane coniferous forests, lower elevation coniferous woodland, steppe, and desert scrub environments. Pollen frequencies in the upper part of core OL-92 corroborate vegetational trends documented previously from late Wisconsin and Holocene Neotoma middens in the Great Basin. These trends and evidence from this study suggest that woodland taxa expanded their range down the slope of the eastern flank of the Sierra Nevada and were established in (and immediately adjacent to) Owens Valley during moderated climates of the late Wisconsin, apparently in response to decreases in temperature and increases in precipitation, but retreated upslope toward their present position starting as long ago as ca. 20 ka. More importantly, pollen evidence from core OL-92 documents that the southern Sierra Nevada has experienced nine major cool-to-warm vegetation shifts (in addition to the late Wisconsin-early Holocene warming) during the time interval spanning the middle Pleistocene to early Holocene (Brunhes Normal Polarity Chron). We believe that at least six consecutive cool-to-warm shifts (the most recent ones) represent transitions from full-glacial to full-interglacial conditions on the basis of the magnitude of vegetation change in this portion of the pollen record. These marked changes in the frequency curves of dominant palynomorph taxa enabled us to identify boundaries that define 19 (?20) pollen zones in OL-92. The excursions of the pollen frequency curves within and across zone boundaries approximate the nature, duration, and timing of the middle and late Pleistocene climatic trends documented by geochemical (δ 18 O) evidence from OL-92 and from Devils Hole (DH-11) in the Amargosa Desert of Nevada.

California↗

2023-2024 Coastal sage scrub and chaparral community monitoring for western San Diego County

Western San Diego County is dominated by shrublands supporting biologically diverse native plant and animal communities. Widespread urbanization has led to regional habitat loss and fragmentation, and many species in these shrubland communities are rare, threatened, or endangered. Large-scale, multiple-species conservation planning has resulted in a regional preserve system that focuses on these shrubland communities. Several large-scale threats are leading to type conversion from shrub-dominated to non-native invasive annual grass-dominated vegetation. To understand the changes that are occurring to native shrublands, we have developed a vegetation monitoring program with several components at multiple spatial scales, focused on quantifying coastal sage scrub (CSS) and chaparral vegetation community characteristics. Several drivers of change associated with type conversion of native shrubland to non-native annual grassland have been identified by previous research including increasing fire frequency, nitrogen deposition from air pollution, and prolonged and intense drought associated with changing climate. Loss of ecological integrity indices have been proposed as useful measures of the threat of degradation and type conversion of shrublands in San Diego County. For this study, ecological integrity is defined as a system’s ability to maintain species’ relationships and functions comparable to natural habitat in the region. Previous studies have identified the percent cover of invasive non-native annual grasses as a proxy for overall ecological degradation (loss of integrity) that is consistent across native taxonomic groups. Increased cover of non-native grass is associated with lower integrity of the shrubland vegetation community as shrub-associated plant and animal species are replaced by species preferring grassy and disturbed habitats. The objectives of this CSS and chaparral vegetation community monitoring plan are to: 1) Determine the distribution, composition, structure, and integrity of CSS and chaparral vegetation communities on conserved lands in western San Diego County, 2) Identify whether these attributes of the vegetation communities are changing over time, and 3) Evaluate relationships of known drivers of change (threats) and environmental factors in association with changes in vegetation community attributes. The CSS and chaparral vegetation community monitoring program is divided into four components: 1) vegetation mapping, 2) GIS/remote sensing office analysis of landscape-scale data, 3) permanent field plots using Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and field data collections, and 4) animal and target species surveys and rapid assessment protocols. The first component, which is not detailed in this vegetation monitoring plan, aims to map vegetation communities every 10-15 years based on a classification developed for western San Diego County. High resolution aerial imagery will be used to update the 2012 vegetation map and expand it across the entire study area. The second component uses remote sensing models to annually track ecological integrity of shrublands across the study area and will include a map of areas of change and areas of stability over several decades. These landscape-scale integrity classifications will be used to analyze ecological processes, threats, and abiotic factors relative to changes to shrubland ecological integrity over time and space. The third component includes field surveys of 100 permanent plots across areas historically mapped as shrublands. Surveys in the 1930s mapped vegetation types using plot data. By using this historical classification map, we included areas that have already type-converted from shrubland to non-native annual grassland. The plots were split between CSS (55 plots) and chaparral (45 plots) and stratified into four geographical eco-subregions to guarantee coverage over small patches of habitat along the heavily developed coast. Surveys will include the collection of UAS imagery at a very high resolution. Species-level identifications will be made from the imagery based on a plant list compiled of all species detected in the plot during a thorough field survey by botanists, combined with geo-referenced samples of plant species locations. In addition, herbaceous cover will be estimated in the field using nine 1-m diameter circles (one per subplot) to obtain ocular estimates of cover for each plant species within the circle frame. Soil samples will be collected and analyzed for important element compositions. These data will be analyzed to evaluate plot-level ecological integrity based on species composition and cover. Repeated monitoring will allow evaluation of changes in vegetation attributes over time with known drivers or threats and other environmental factors. In addition, analyses will focus on indicator species and various measures of biological diversity for the vegetation communities. Finally, animal species and rare plants will be assessed using either taxa-based rapid assessment protocols or specialized species-specific protocols for rarer species. The purpose of these assessments is to document the status, habitat, and threat covariates of specific species and confirm the species composition and diversity of animal taxonomic groups (e.g., pollinators). Diversity and abundance of animal species at vegetation plots will be used to refine measures and thresholds of ecological integrity. Rapid assessment protocols for animal taxonomic groups can include multiple detection methods such as, camera traps, cover boards, and bird point counts. Pollinators will be monitored at plots using a protocol currently being developed in conjunction with but separately from this plan. Target rare plant species will be monitored using the regional Inspect and Manage (IMG) protocol that measures the status of rare plant occurrences and habitat and threat covariates over time. Species-specific animal survey methods will be refined as these species are prioritized for future monitoring. The goal of this monitoring program is to classify CSS and chaparral vegetation community integrity, identify areas of degradation across western San Diego County, and characterize drivers, and environmental factors associated with loss of ecological integrity. A combination of vegetation mapping, landscape-scale remote sensing, and field plots will be used to address all the aspects of our research questions. Data compiled and collected will be available to conservation partners to help inform future management decisions.

California↗

Global methane emissions from rivers and streams

Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas and its concentrations have tripled in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. There is evidence that global warming has increased CH 4 emissions from freshwater ecosystems 1 , 2 , providing positive feedback to the global climate. Yet for rivers and streams, the controls and the magnitude of CH 4 emissions remain highly uncertain 3 , 4 . Here we report a spatially explicit global estimate of CH 4 emissions from running waters, accounting for 27.9 (16.7–39.7) Tg CH 4 per year and roughly equal in magnitude to those of other freshwater systems 5 , 6 . Riverine CH 4 emissions are not strongly temperature dependent, with low average activation energy ( E M = 0.14 eV) compared with that of lakes and wetlands ( E M = 0.96 eV) 1 . By contrast, global patterns of emissions are characterized by large fluxes in high- and low-latitude settings as well as in human-dominated environments. These patterns are explained by edaphic and climate features that are linked to anoxia in and near fluvial habitats, including a high supply of organic matter and water saturation in hydrologically connected soils. Our results highlight the importance of land–water connections in regulating CH 4 supply to running waters, which is vulnerable not only to direct human modifications but also to several climate change responses on land.

Nature↗

A review on cylindrospermopsin: the global occurrence, detection, toxicity and degradation of a potent cyanotoxin

Cylindrospermopsin is an important cyanobacterial toxin found in water bodies worldwide. The ever-increasing and global occurrence of massive and prolonged blooms of cylindrospermopsin-producing cyanobacteria poses a potential threat to both human and ecosystem health. Its toxicity is associated with metabolic activation and may involve mechanisms that adversely affect a wide variety of targets in an organism. Cylindrospermopsin has been shown to be cytotoxic, dermatotoxic, genotoxic, hepatotoxic in vivo, developmentally toxic, and may be carcinogenic. Human exposure may occur through drinking water, during recreational activities and by consuming foods in which the toxin may have bioaccumulated. Drinking water shortages of sufficient quality coupled with growing human pressures and climate variability and change necessitate an integrated and sustainable water management program. This review presents an overview of the importance of cylindrospermopsin, its detection, toxicity, worldwide distribution, and lastly, its chemical and biological degradation and removal by natural processes and drinking water treatment processes.

Environmental Science: Processes and Impacts↗

Water availability and use pilot: A multiscale assessment in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin

Beginning in 2005, water availability and use were assessed for the U.S. part of the Great Lakes Basin through the Great Lakes Basin Pilot of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) national assessment of water availability and use. The goals of a national assessment of water availability and use are to clarify our understanding of water-availability status and trends and improve our ability to forecast the balance between water supply and demand for future economic and environmental uses. This report outlines possible approaches for full-scale implementation of such an assessment. As such, the focus of this study was on collecting, compiling, and analyzing a wide variety of data to define the storage and dynamics of water resources and quantify the human demands on water in the Great Lakes region. The study focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to highlight not only the abundant regional availability of water but also the potential for local shortages or conflicts over water. Regional studies provided a framework for understanding water resources in the basin. Subregional studies directed attention to varied aspects of the water-resources system that would have been difficult to assess for the whole region because of either data limitations or time limitations for the project. The study of local issues and concerns was motivated by regional discussions that led to recent legislative action between the Great Lakes States and regional cooperation with the Canadian Great Lakes Provinces. The multiscale nature of the study findings challenges water-resource managers and the public to think about regional water resources in an integrated way and to understand how future changes to the system-driven by human uses, climate variability, or land-use change-may be accommodated by informed water-resources management.

Great Lakes Basin↗

Declines in brook trout abundance linked to atmospheric warming in Maryland, USA

Salmonid fishes provide an important indicator of climate change given their reliance on cold water. We evaluated temporal changes in the density of stream-dwelling brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) from surveys conducted over a 36-year period (1988–2023) by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources in Eastern North America. Nonparametric trend analyses revealed decreasing densities of adult fish (age 1+) in 19 sites (27%) and increases in 5 sites (7%). In contrast, juvenile fish (age 0) densities decreased in 4 sites (6%) and increased in 10 sites (14%). Declining adult brook trout trends were related to atmospheric warming rates during the study period, and this relationship was stronger than the effects of land use change or non-native brown trout. In contrast, juvenile fish trends generally increased with elevation but were not related to air temperature trends or land use change. Our analysis reveals significant changes in several brook trout populations over recent decades and implicates warming atmospheric conditions in population declines. Our findings also suggest the importance of temperature for adult survival rather than recruitment limitation in brook trout population dynamics.

Maryland↗

Temporal patterns in adult salmon migration timing across southeast Alaska

Pacific salmon migration timing can drive population productivity, ecosystem dynamics, and human harvest. Nevertheless, little is known about long-term variation in salmon migration timing for multiple species across broad regions. We used long-term data for five Pacific salmon species throughout rapidly warming southeast Alaska to describe long-term changes in salmon migration timing, interannual phenological synchrony, relationships between climatic variation and migratory timing, and to test whether long-term changes in migration timing are related to glaciation in headwater streams. Temporal changes in the median date of salmon migration timing varied widely across species. Most sockeye populations are migrating later over time (11 of 14), but pink, chum, and especially coho populations are migrating earlier than they did historically (16 of 19 combined). Temporal trends in duration and interannual variation in migration timing were highly variable across species and populations. The greatest temporal shifts in the median date of migration timing were correlated with decreases in the duration of migration timing, suggestive of a loss of phenotypic variation due to natural selection. Pairwise interannual correlations in migration timing varied widely but were generally positive, providing evidence for weak region-wide phenological synchrony. This synchrony is likely a function of climatic variation, as interannual variation in migration timing was related to climatic phenomenon operating at large- (Pacific decadal oscillation), moderate- (sea surface temperature), and local-scales (precipitation). Surprisingly, the presence or the absence of glaciers within a watershed was unrelated to long-term shifts in phenology. Overall, there was extensive heterogeneity in long-term patterns of migration timing throughout this climatically and geographically complex region, highlighting that future climatic change will likely have widely divergent impacts on salmon migration timing. Although salmon phenological diversity will complicate future predictions of migration timing, this variation likely acts as a major contributor to population and ecosystem resiliency in southeast Alaska.

Alaska↗

Results of a modeling workshop concerning economic and environmental trends and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area

During the past decade, the southern regions of the U.S. have experienced rapid change which is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Growth in population, industry, and resource development has been attributed to a variety of advantages such as an abundant and inexpensive labor force, a mild climate, and the availability of energy, water, land, and other natural resources. While this growth has many benefits for the region, it also creates the potential for increased air, water, and solid waste pollution, and modification of natural habitats. A workshop was convened to consider the Mobile Bay area as a site-specific case of growth and its environmental consequences in the southern region. The objectives of the modeling workshop were to: (1) identify major factors of economic development as they relate to growth in the area over the immediate and longer term; (2) identify major environmental and resource management issues associated with this expected growth; and (3) identify and characterize the complex interrelationships among economic and environmental factors. This report summarizes the activities and results of a modeling workshop concerning economic growth and concomitant resource management issues in the Mobile Bay area. The workshop was organized around construction of a simulation model representing the relationships between a series of actions and indicators identified by participants. The workshop model had five major components. An Industry Submodel generated scenarios of growth in several industrial and transportation sectors. A Human Population/Economy Submodel calculated human population and economic variables in response to employment opportunities. A Land Use/Air Quality Submodel tabulated changes in land use, shoreline use, and air quality. A Water Submodel calculated indicators of water quality and quantity for fresh surface water, ground water, and Mobile Bay based on discharge information provided by the Industry and Human Population/Economy Submodels. Finally, a Fish Submodel calculated indicators of habitat quality for finfish and shellfish, utilizing information on water quality and wetlands acreage. The workshop was successful in identifying many of the critical interrelations between components of the Mobile area system. Not all of those interactions, such as the feedback of air quality as a limitation on development, could be incorporated into the workshop model because of the model's broad spatial scale and because of uncertainties or data gaps. Thus, the value of the modeling workshop was in the areas outlines below, rather than in the predictive power of the initial model developed at the workshop. First, participants developed a holistic perspective on the interactions which will determine future economic and environmental trends within the Mobile Bay area. Potential environmental consequences and limitations to grown identified at the workshop included: shoreline and water access; water quality of Mobile Bay; finfish and shellfish habitat quality with respect to dissolved oxygen and coliforms; air quality; and acreage of critical wetland habitat. Second, the model's requirements for specific, quantitative information stimulated supporting analyses, such as economic input-output calculations, which provide additional insight into the Mobile Bay area system. Third, the perspective of the Mobile area as an interacting system was developed in an open, cooperative forum which my provide a foundation for conflict resolution based on common understanding. Finally, the identification of model limitations and uncertainties should be useful in guiding the efficient allocation of future research effort.

Alabama↗

Soil formation: Chapter 6

Soil formation reflects the complex interaction of many factors, among the most important of which are (i) the nature of the soil parent material, (ii) regional climate, (iii) organisms, including humans, (iv) topography and (v) time. These processes operate in Earth's critical zone; the thin veneer of our planet where rock meets life. Understanding the operation of these soil-forming factors requires an interdisciplinary approach and is a necessary predicate to charactering soil processes and functions, mitigating soil degradation and adapting soil management to environmental change. In this chapter, we discuss how these soil-forming factors operate both singly and in concert in natural and human modified environments. We emphasize the role that soil organic matter plays in these processes to provide context for understanding the benefits that it bestows on humanity.

Book chapter↗

Above- and belowground biomass carbon stock and net primary productivity maps for tidal herbaceous marshes of the United States

Accurate assessments of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration in natural ecosystems are necessary to develop climate mitigation strategies. Regional and national-level assessments of carbon sequestration require high-resolution data to be available for large areas, increasing the need for remote sensing products that quantify carbon stocks and fluxes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidelines on how to quantify carbon flux using land cover land change and biomass carbon stock information. Net primary productivity (NPP), carbon uptake, and storage in vegetation, can also be used to model net carbon sequestration and net carbon export from an ecosystem (net ecosystem carbon balance). While biomass and NPP map products for terrestrial ecosystems are available, there are currently no conterminous United States (CONUS) biomass carbon stock or NPP maps for tidal herbaceous marshes. In this study, we used peak soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) values, derived from Landsat 8 composites, and five other vegetation indices, plus a categorical variable for the CONUS region (Pacific Northwest, California, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic-Gulf, or Everglades), to model spatially explicit aboveground peak biomass stocks in tidal marshes (i.e., tidal palustrine and estuarine herbaceous marshes) for the first time. Tidal marsh carbon conversion factors, root-to-shoot ratios, and vegetation turnover rates, were compiled from the literature and used to convert peak aboveground biomass to peak total (above- and belowground) biomass and NPP. An extensive literature search for aboveground turnover rates produced sparse and variable values; therefore, we used an informed assumption of a turnover rate of one crop per year for all CONUS tidal marshes. Due to the lack of turnover rate data, the NPP map is identical to the peak biomass carbon stock map. In reality, it is probable that turnover rate varies by region, given seasonal length differences; however, the NPP map provides the best available information on spatially explicit CONUS tidal marsh NPP. This study identifies gaps in the scientific knowledge, to support future studies in addressing this lack of turnover data. Across CONUS, average total peak biomass carbon stock in tidal marshes was 848 g C m −2 (871 g C m −2 in palustrine and 838 g C m −2 in estuarine marshes), and based on a median biomass turnover rate of 1, it is expected that the mean NPP annual flux for tidal marshes is similar (e.g., 848 g C m −2 y −1 ). Peak biomass carbon stocks in tidal marshes were lowest in the Florida Everglades region and highest in the California regions. These are the first fine-scale national maps of biomass carbon and NPP for tidal wetlands, spanning all of CONUS. These estimates of CONUS total peak biomass carbon stocks and NPP rates for tidal marshes can support regional- and national-scale assessments of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as natural resource management of coastal wetlands, as part of nature-based climate solution efforts.

Remote Sensing↗

Land use change and climate-smart agriculture in the Sahel

In the 1970s and 1980s, the Sahel experienced recurrent drought and famine. Farmers and their development partners reacted to this crisis by developing climate-smart agricultural practices and changes in land use, including water-harvesting techniques to restore degraded land to productivity. In several densely populated parts of the Sahel, farmers began to protect and manage woody species that regenerated naturally on their farmland. Farmer-managed natural regeneration (FMNR) is a foundational practice that produces multiple benefits, such as maintaining or improving soil fertility, which raises crop yields, and increasing the production of tree-based fodder, fruit, and firewood. In Niger’s Maradi and Zinder Regions alone, farmers have applied FMNR practices on 4.2 million hectares. The findings presented in this chapter suggest that the future of agriculture in the Sahel will be largely determined by whether low-income smallholder farmers will manage to improve soil fertility, which will depend on maintaining substantial densities of on-farm trees thus increasing tree cover.

Sahel Region↗

Phenological flexibility in nesting grassland birds over a half century informs timing of management

The timing of biological events for wildlife species reflects and influences ecological and evolutionary processes and helps guide management actions to meet conservation objectives. Climate change may cause phenological shifts across trophic levels and ecosystems, which can have broad ecological impacts. Shifts may also result in mistiming between management practices based on historical conditions and current biological events, reducing the effectiveness of natural resource management and conservation efforts. We analyzed nesting phenology patterns over recent decades across North America for 44 species of grassland-nesting birds, including waterfowl, upland gamebirds, shorebirds, and passerines, many of which have experienced precipitous population declines. Understanding nesting phenologies of these species is important to their conservation, as grassland management activities often conflict with reproductive periods leading to high nest and young mortality. We compiled a dataset of over 172,000 nest records spanning five decades and evaluated environmental factors influencing long-term shifts and short-term flexibility in nesting phenology. We found considerable variation in responses among species, with differences in both direction and magnitude of spatiotemporal effects on nest initiation dates. Notably, the community-level nesting season lengthened over time, but shifts exhibited spatial heterogeneity within this community of grassland birds. Nesting dates shifted asymmetrically across the breeding season with differential changes in early, peak, and late nesting dates whereas long-term changes were mediated by weather and geographic gradients. For example, nest initiation was earlier in warmer and wetter years. By applying a quantile-based analysis, we provide estimates of the full nesting period that could serve as a flexible tool for scheduling monitoring efforts and balancing management and human activities with periods of reduced nesting activity. Our collaborative effort illustrates the challenges and opportunities of collecting long-term data on avian communities necessary for answering questions across large regions but highlights the value of research coordination for bird conservation.

Global Change Biology↗