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Scenarios for valuing sample information in natural resources

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in natural resource systems, science and management. Sample data are obtained in order to reduce uncertainty, thereby increasing knowledge and improving resource management, but sampling always comes at a cost of some sort. Is that cost worthwhile? Analysis of the value of sample information ( VSI ) addresses this question. In this paper we develop the valuation of sample information in terms of five elements: (a) a system whose attributes are the focus of analysis; (b) a range of management actions that affect the system's status; (c) uncertainty about system status or structure, as characterized by initial (prior) probabilities of possible system states or structures; (d) an experiment or other information source that produces new data points and updated (posterior) probabilities; and (e) a value measure that is a function of the management action taken, conditional on either the system state or structure. We describe five scenarios for analysing the VSI under uncertainty about system structure and state. Scenarios 1–3 comprise analyses of conditional, expected and optimal expected values of sample information. They focus primarily on choice of management adaptations with new information. Scenarios 4 and 5 involve pre-selected management actions, and are useful for comparing designs of data collection rather than for choosing a management action. These last scenarios expand the framework for VSI to include actions that have been selected independently of the updating of uncertainty. We discuss other extensions of VSI analysis, which include spatial applications, hybrid scenarios, applications involving dynamic systems, and a focus on costs rather than net benefits. Value of sample information analysis holds promise in emerging areas of ecology such as ecological forecasting and the use of remote sensing in conservation, where potential new data from models and satellites can be evaluated in advance, thereby allowing more efficient prioritization of scientific efforts. More generally, VSI can contribute to better ecological understanding and more effective management in a wide range of ecological situations.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

Instream cover and shade mediate avian predation on trout in semi-natural streams

Piscivory by birds can be significant, particularly on fish in small streams and during seasonal low flow when available cover from predators can be limited. Yet, how varying amounts of cover may change the extent of predation mortality from avian predators on fish is not clear. We evaluated size-selective survival of coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) in replicated semi-natural stream sections. These sections provided high (0.01 m2 of cover per m2 of stream) or low (0.002 m2 of cover per m2 of stream) levels of instream cover available to trout and were closed to emigration. Each fish was individually tagged, allowing us to track retention of individuals during the course of the 36-day experiment, which we attributed to survival from predators, because fish had no other way to leave the streams. Although other avian predators may have been active in our system and not detected, the only predator observed was the belted kingfisher Megaceryle alcyon, which is known to prey heavily on fish. In both treatments, trout >20.4 cm were not preyed upon indicating an increased ability to prey upon on smaller individuals. Increased availability of cover improved survival of trout by 12% in high relative to low cover stream sections. Trout also survived better in stream sections with greater shade, a factor we could not control in our system. Collectively, these findings indicate that instream cover and shade from avian predators can play an important role in driving survival of fish in small streams or during periods of low flow.

Oregon↗

Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year. 2. To more completely describe thermal regimes, we developed several descriptors of magnitude, variability, frequency, duration and timing of thermal events throughout a year. We evaluated how these descriptors change over time using long-term (1979–2009), continuous temperature data from five relatively undisturbed cold-water streams in western Oregon, U.S.A. In addition to trends for each descriptor, we evaluated similarities among them, as well as patterns of spatial coherence, and temporal synchrony. 3. Using different groups of descriptors, we were able to more fully capture distinct aspects of the full range of variability in thermal regimes across space and time. A subset of descriptors showed both higher coherence and synchrony and, thus, an appropriate level of responsiveness to examine evidence of regional climatic influences on thermal regimes. Most notably, daily minimum values during winter–spring were the most responsive descriptors to potential climatic influences. 4. Overall, thermal regimes in streams we studied showed high frequency and low variability of cold temperatures during the cold-water period in winter and spring, and high frequency and high variability of warm temperatures during the warm-water period in summer and autumn. The cold and warm periods differed in the distribution of events with a higher frequency and longer duration of warm events in summer than cold events in winter. The cold period exhibited lower variability in the duration of events, but showed more variability in timing. 5. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of a year-round perspective in identifying the most responsive characteristics or descriptors of thermal regimes in streams. The descriptors we provide herein can be applied across hydro-ecological regions to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in thermal regimes. Evaluation of coherence and synchrony of different components of thermal regimes can facilitate identification of impacts of regional climate variability or local human or natural influences.

Freshwater Biology↗

Use of the MODFLOW 6 water mover package to represent natural and managed hydrologic connections

The latest release of MODFLOW 6, the current core version of the MODFLOW groundwater modeling software, debuted a new package dubbed the “mover” (MVR). Using a generalized approach, MVR facilitates the transfer of water among any arbitrary combination of simulated features (i.e., pumping wells, stream, drains, lakes, etc.) within a MODFLOW 6 simulation. Four “rules” controlling the amount of water transferred from a providing feature to a receiving feature are currently available. In this way, MVR can represent natural connections between features, for example streams entering or exiting lakes, and perhaps more interestingly, it also can transfer water among simulated features to more accurately simulate water management. An example model representative of an agricultural setting demonstrates some of the available MVR connections. For example, an irrigation event that transfers surface water from an irrigation delivery ditch to multiple cropped areas demonstrates a “one-to-many” connection that is possible within MVR. Conversely, irrigation or precipitation runoff from multiple fields may be routed to a particular stream segment using “many-to-one” MVR connections. MVR supports many additional connection types, several of which are demonstrated by the included example problem.

Groundwater↗

Effects of coalbed natural gas development on fish assemblages in tributary streams of the Powder and Tongue rivers

1. Extraction of coalbed natural gas (CBNG) often results in disposal of large quantities of CBNG product water, which may affect aquatic ecosystems. We evaluated the effects of CBNG development on fish assemblages in tributary streams of the Powder and Tongue rivers. We used treatment and control, impact versus reference sites comparisons, surveys of CBNG product-water streams and in situ fish survival approaches to determine if CBNG development affected fish assemblages.2. Several of our results suggested that CBNG development did not affect fish assemblages. Species richness and index of biotic integrity (IBI) scores were similar in streams with and streams without CBNG development, and overall biotic integrity was not related to the number or density of CBNG wells. Fish occurred in one stream that was composed largely or entirely of CBNG product water. Sentinel fish survived in cages at treatment sites where no or few fish were captured, suggesting that factors such as lack of stream connectivity rather than water quality limited fish abundance at these sites. Fish species richness did not differ significantly from 1994 to 2006 in comparisons of CBNG-developed and undeveloped streams. Biotic integrity declined from 1994 to 2006; however, declines occurred at both impact and reference sites, possibly because of long-term drought.3. Some evidence suggested that CBNG development negatively affected fish assemblages, or may do so over time. Specific conductivity was on average higher in treatment streams and was negatively related to biotic integrity. Four IBI species richness metrics were negatively correlated with the number or density of CBNG wells in the catchment above sampling sites. Bicarbonate, one of the primary ions in product water, was significantly higher in developed streams and may have limited abundance of longnose dace (Rhinichthys cataractae). Total dissolved solids, alkalinity, magnesium and sulphate were significantly higher in developed streams.4. Biological monitoring conducted before the development of CBNG, and continuing through the life of development and reclamation, together with data on the quantity, quality and fate of CBNG product water will allow robust assessment of potential effects of future CBNG development worldwide. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Freshwater Biology↗

Evolution of natural history information in the 21st century – developing an integrated framework for biological and geographical data

Threats to marine and estuarine species operate over many spatial scales, from nutrient enrichment at the watershed/estuarine scale to invasive species and climate change at regional and global scales. To help address research questions across these scales, we provide here a standardized framework for a biogeographical information system containing queriable biological data that allows extraction of information on multiple species, across a variety of spatial scales based on species distributions, natural history attributes and habitat requirements. As scientists shift from research on localized impacts on individual species to regional and global scale threats, macroecological approaches of studying multiple species over broad geographical areas are becoming increasingly important. The standardized framework described here for capturing and integrating biological and geographical data is a critical first step towards addressing these macroecological questions and we urge organizations capturing biogeoinformatics data to consider adopting this framework.

Journal of Biogeography↗

Natural selection of the major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) in Hawaiian honeycreepers (Drepanidinae)

The native Hawaiian honeycreepers represent a classic example of adaptive radiation and speciation, but currently face one the highest extinction rates in the world. Although multiple factors have likely influenced the fate of Hawaiian birds, the relatively recent introduction of avian malaria is thought to be a major factor limiting honeycreeper distribution and abundance. We have initiated genetic analyses of class II ?? chain Mhc genes in four species of honeycreepers using methods that eliminate the possibility of sequencing mosaic variants formed by cloning heteroduplexed polymerase chain reaction products. Phylogenetic analyses group the honeycreeper Mhc sequences into two distinct clusters. Variation within one cluster is high, with dN > d S and levels of diversity similar to other studies of Mhc (B system) genes in birds. The second cluster is nearly invariant and includes sequences from honeycreepers (Fringillidae), a sparrow (Emberizidae) and a blackbird (Emberizidae). This highly conserved cluster appears reminiscent of the independently segregating Rfp-Y system of genes defined in chickens. The notion that balancing selection operates at the Mhc in the honeycreepers is supported by transpecies polymorphism and strikingly high dN/dS ratios at codons putatively involved in peptide interaction. Mitochondrial DNA control region sequences were invariant in the i'iwi, but were highly variable in the 'amakihi. By contrast, levels of variability of class II ?? chain Mhc sequence codons that are hypothesized to be directly involved in peptide interactions appear comparable between i'iwi and 'amakihi. In the i'iwi, natural selection may have maintained variation within the Mhc, even in the face of what appears to a genetic bottleneck.

Molecular Ecology↗

Population genetic structure in Atlantic and Pacific Ocean common murres ( Uria aalge ): Natural replicate tests of post-Pleistocene evolution

Understanding the factors that influence population differentiation in temperate taxa can be difficult because the signatures of both historic and contemporary demographics are often reflected in population genetic patterns. Fortunately, analyses based on coalescent theory can help untangle the relative influence of these historic and contemporary factors. Common murres ( Uria aalge ) are vagile seabirds that breed in the boreal and low arctic waters of the Northern Hemisphere. Previous analyses revealed that Atlantic and Pacific populations are genetically distinct; however, less is known about population genetic structure within ocean basins. We employed the mitochondrial control region, four microsatellite loci and four intron loci to investigate population genetic structure throughout the range of common murres. As in previous studies, we found that Atlantic and Pacific populations diverged during the Pleistocene and do not currently exchange migrants. Therefore, Atlantic and Pacific murre populations can be used as natural replicates to test mechanisms of population differentiation. While we found little population genetic structure within the Pacific, we detected significant east-west structuring among Atlantic colonies. The degree that population genetic structure reflected contemporary population demographics also differed between ocean basins. Specifically, while the low levels of population differentiation in the Pacific are at least partially due to high levels of contemporary gene flow, the east-west structuring of populations within the Atlantic appears to be the result of historic fragmentation of populations rather than restricted contemporary gene flow. The contrasting results in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans highlight the necessity of carefully considering multilocus nonequilibrium population genetic approaches when reconstructing the demographic history of temperate Northern Hemisphere taxa. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Molecular Ecology↗

Natural hazards in mountain Colorado

Interdisciplinary field studies and remote sensing techniques were used to delineate mountain areas in Colorado subject to such natural hazards as snow avalanches, mudflows, rockfalls, and landslides. The old mining townsite of Ophir in the northwestern San Juan Mountains was used as a case study. Its serious snow avalanche hazard has been made even more critical with prospects of new housing developments. Techniques in remote sensing and geoecology have been applied to the solution of practical land management problems at the county and township levels of local government. The rapidly increasing hazard to human life and property results directly from accelerated growth of the winter recreation industry and construction of mountain homes. Many of the world's temperate zone high mountains urgently need development and application of new land management policies.

Colorado↗

Natural-channel-design restorations that changed geomorphology have little effect on macroinvertebrate communities in headwater streams

Stream restorations that increase geomorphic stability can improve habitat quality, which should benefit selected species and local aquatic ecosystems. This assumption is often used to define primary restoration goals; yet, biological responses to restoration are rarely monitored or evaluated methodically. Macroinvertebrate communities were inventoried at 6 study reaches within 5 Catskill Mountain streams between 2002 and 2006 to characterize their responses to natural-channel-design (NCD) restoration. Although bank stability increased significantly at most restored reaches, analyses of variation showed that NCD restorations had no significant effect on 15 of 16 macroinvertebrate community metrics. Multidimensional scaling ordination indicated that communities from all reach types within a stream were much more similar to each other within any given year than they were in the same reaches across years or within any type of reach across streams. These findings indicate that source populations and watershed-scale factors were more important to macroinvertebrate community characteristics than were changes in channel geomorphology associated with NCD restoration. Furthermore, the response of macroinvertebrates to restoration cannot always be used to infer the response of other stream biota to restoration. Thus, a broad perspective is needed to characterize and evaluate the full range of effects that restoration can have on stream ecosystems.

Catskill Mountains↗

Potentially bioavailable natural organic carbon and hydrolyzable amino acids in aquifer sediments

This study evaluated the relationship between concentrations of operationally defined potentially bioavailable organic -carbon (PBOC) and hydrolyzable amino acids (HAAs) in sediments collected from a diverse range of chloroethene--contaminated sites. Concentrations of PBOC and HAA were measured using aquifer sediment samples collected at six selected study sites. Average concentrations of total HAA and PBOC ranged from 1.96 ± 1.53 to 20.1 ± 25.6 mg/kg and 4.72 ± 0.72 to 443 ± 65.4 mg/kg, respectively. Results demonstrated a statistically significant positive relationship between concentrations of PBOC and total HAA present in the aquifer sediment (p < 0.05). Higher levels of HAA were consistently observed at sites with greater levels of PBOC and first-order decay rates. Because amino acids are known to be readily biodegradable carbon compounds, this relationship suggests that the sequential chemical extraction procedure used to measure PBOC is a useful indicator of bioavailable carbon in aquifer sediments. This, in turn, is consistent with the interpretation that PBOC measurements can be used for estimating the amount of natural organic carbon available for driving the reductive dechlorination of chloroethenes in groundwater systems.

Ground Water Monitoring and Remediation↗

Characterisation of a natural quartz crystal as a reference material for microanalytical determination of Ti, Al, Li, Fe, Mn, Ga and Ge

A natural smoky quartz crystal from Shandong province, China, was characterised by laser ablation ICP-MS, electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) and solution ICP-MS to determine the concentration of twenty-four trace and ultra trace elements. Our main focus was on Ti quantification because of the increased use of this element for titanium-in-quartz (TitaniQ) thermobarometry. Pieces of a uniform growth zone of 9 mm thickness within the quartz crystal were analysed in four different LA-ICP-MS laboratories, three EPMA laboratories and one solution-ICP-MS laboratory. The results reveal reproducible concentrations of Ti (57 &plusmn; 4 &mu;g g -1 ), Al (154 &plusmn; 15 &mu;g g -1 ), Li (30 &plusmn; 2 &mu;g g -1 ), Fe (2.2 &plusmn; 0.3 &mu;g g -1 ), Mn (0.34 &plusmn; 0.04 &mu;g g -1 ), Ge (1.7 &plusmn; 0.2 &mu;g g -1 ) and Ga (0.020 &plusmn; 0.002 &mu;g g -1 ) and detectable, but less reproducible, concentrations of Be, B, Na, Cu, Zr, Sn and Pb. Concentrations of K, Ca, Sr, Mo, Ag, Sb, Ba and Au were below the limits of detection of all three techniques. The uncertainties on the average concentration determinations by multiple techniques and laboratories for Ti, Al, Li, Fe, Mn, Ga and Ge are low; hence, this quartz can serve as a reference material or a secondary reference material for microanalytical applications involving the quantification of trace elements in quartz.

Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research↗

Is biotic resistance enhanced by natural variation in diversity?

Theories linking diversity to ecosystem function have been challenged by the widespread observation of more exotic species in more diverse native communities. Few studies have addressed the underlying processes by dissecting how biotic resistance to new invaders may be shaped by the same environmental influences that determine diversity and other community properties. In grasslands with heterogeneous soils, we added invaders and removed competitors to analyze the causes of invasion resistance. Abiotic resistance was measured using invader success in the absence of the resident community. Biotic resistance was measured as the reduction in invader success in the presence of the resident community. Invaders were most successful where biotic resistance was lowest and abiotic resistance was highest, confirming the dominant role of biotic resistance. Contrary to theory, though, biotic resistance was highest where both species richness and functional diversity were lowest. In the multivariate framework of a structural equation model, biotic resistance was independent of community diversity, and was highest where fertile soils led to high community biomass. Seed predation slightly augmented biotic resistance without qualitatively changing the results. Soil-related genotypic variation in the invader also did not affect the results. We conclude that in natural systems, diversity may be correlated with invasibility and yet have little effect on biotic resistance to invasion. More generally, the environmental causes of variation in diversity should be considered when examining the potential functional consequences of diversity.

Oikos↗

Tradeoffs in habitat value to maximize natural resource benefits from coastal restoration in a rapidly eroding wetland: Is monitoring land area sufficient?

Louisiana contains nearly 40% of estuarine herbaceous wetlands in the contiguous United States, supporting valuable ecosystem services and providing significant economic benefits to the state and the entire United States. However, coastal Louisiana is a hotspot for rapid land loss from factors including hurricanes, land use change, and high subsidence rates contributing to high relative sea-level rise. The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) was established after major hurricanes in 2005 to coordinate coastal restoration in Louisiana and develop the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan. The LA Coastal Master Plan uses numerical modeling of multiple scenarios to select a suite of restoration projects based on maximum land area created and flood reduction (as proxies for ecosystem value). Using potential value to aquatic, terrestrial, and social resources, our work compared habitat value of shallow open water areas to emergent wetland. While potential resource benefits varied by emergent wetland salinity type and emergent wetland versus water, they were similar, suggesting that restoration planning based primarily on wetland land area may not achieve the maximum possible ecosystem benefits. After nearly 20 years of integrated restoration planning in coastal Louisiana, a reassessment of restoration planning decision drivers may be beneficial to ensure maximum benefits from coastal restoration. As a result of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, settlement funds will be a major support to coastal restoration in Louisiana for many years. Assessing potential habitat value to multiple natural and social resources in Louisiana has potential to maximize synergy with large northern Gulf of Mexico restoration programs.

Louisiana↗

Hybrid coral reef restoration can be a cost-effective nature-based solution to provide protection to vulnerable coastal populations

Coral reefs can mitigate flood damages by providing protection to tropical coastal communities whose populations are dense, growing fast, and have predominantly lower-middle income. This study provides the first fine-scale, regionally modeled valuations of how flood risk reductions associated with hybrid coral reef restoration could benefit people, property, and economic activity along Florida and Puerto Rico’s 1005 kilometers of reef-lined coasts. Restoration of up to 20% of the regions’ coral reefs could provide flood reduction benefits greater than costs. Reef habitats with the greatest benefits are shallow, nearshore, and fronting low-lying, vulnerable communities, which are often where reef impacts and loss are the greatest. Minorities, children, the elderly, and those below the poverty line could receive more than double the hazard risk reduction benefits of the overall population, demonstrating that reef restoration as a nature-based solution can have positive returns on investment economically and socially by providing protection to the most vulnerable people.

Florida↗

First natural occurrence of coesite

Coesite, the high-pressure polymorph of SiO 2 , hitherto known only as a synthetic compound, is identified as an abundant mineral in sheared Coconino sandstone at Meteor Crater, Arizona. This natural occurrence has important bearing on the recognition of meteorite impact craters in quartz-bearing geologic formations.

Arizona↗

Submarine seepage of natural gas in Norton Sound, Alaska

Unusual concentrations of dissolved two- to four-carbon alkanes were observed in the waters in Norton Sound in a localized area approximately 40 kilometers south of Nome, Alaska, in 1976. The hydrocarbons were identified in the near-bottom waters downcurrent for more than 100 kilometers from a sea-floor point source. Preliminary dynamic modeling estimates of the initial gas phase composition predict methane/ethane and ethane/propane ratios of 24 and 1.7, respectively, assuming the hydrocarbons were introduced by bubbles. The low ethane/propane ratio is indicative of gas from a liquid petroleum source rather than from nonassociated or biogenic natural gas. Preliminary data on the structural geology of Norton Basin lend support to the interpretation based on the hydrocarbon plume. Unconformably truncated strata dip basinward from the seep locus; acoustic anomalies and numerous steeply dipping faults in the immediate vicinity of the seep are corroborating evidence that shallow gas- or petroleum-charged sediments and strata coincide with avenues for migration of mobile hydrocarbons to the sea floor. These factors, taken in concert with the sedimentological regime, the recent revision (increase) of basin depth estimates, and the highly localized hydrocarbon source, strongly suggest a thermogenic rather than a recent biogenic origin for these gaseous compounds.

Alaska↗

Anasazi solar marker: The use of a natural rockfall

The midday "sun dagger" solstice and equinox marker on Fajada Butte in Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, is formed by three sandstone slabs that collimate sunlight onto two spiral petroglyphs. The slabs appear to be the result of a natural rockfall and not a construct of the Chacoan Anasazi. Although neither the rockfall nor the petroglyphs can be dated accurately, it is likely that the petroglyphs were designed after the rockfall by people who observed the details of the light pattern for several annual cycles.

New Mexico↗