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USGS1998

Environmental impacts on the southern Florida coastal waters: A history of change in Florida Bay

Analyses of four cores located in the northern transitional, eastern, and central portions of Florida Bay reveal historical patterns of change in salinity and seagrass distribution. Salinity and the distribution of seagrass beds are two critical issues for the restoration of Florida Bay. The distribution of benthic fauna in Bob Allen 6A and Russell Bank 19B cores illustrates changes in environmental parameters prior to 1900. Natural fluctuations occur in salinity, but the amplitude of those fluctuations was limited to a 15–20% shift about the mean. Subtle changes occur in the benthic fauna around 1910, but beginning around 1940, the pattern of salinity fluctuation departs substantially from the pre-1900 pattern. Post-1940, the salinity oscillates 40–60% about the mean. This pattern is seen in all indicators measured. Around 1970, a significant but short term decline occurred in salinity. The Taylor Creek T24 core from the northern transitional zone reflects changes in freshwater flow that have occurred during this century. The upper portion of the core records a significant increase in salinity, with a slight decrease occurring in recent years. The Pass Key 37 core represents an area of very high sedimentation rates; an increase in salinity occurs in the upper portion of the core. Natural fluctuations in seagrass distribution are inferred from the shifts in relative abundance of epiphytal species preserved in the cores. All four cores show an increase in epiphytes and therefore in seagrass coverage during this century. An increase also occurs in epiphytal species that can dwell on either Thalassia or macro-algal mats associated with Thalassia beds. These data suggest an increase in algal-mats has occurred during this century. The Bob Allen 6A core records an extensive period during the 1800's of little to no vegetative cover of the substrate based on the near absence of epiphytic species in that segment of the core. Following this period, the epiphytal species increase rapidly in abundance, implying that vegetation may have the ability to disseminate rapidly.

Florida↗

USGS1961

Dacitic ash-flow sheet near Superior and Globe, Arizona

Remnants of a dacitic ash-flow sheet near Globe, Miama, and Superia, Arizona cover about 100 square miles; before erosion the area covered by the sheet was at least 400 square miles and perhaps as much as 1,500 square miles. Its maximum thickness is about 2,000 feet, its average thickness is about 500 feet, and its original volume was at least 40 cubic miles. It was erupted on an eroded surface with considerable relief. The main part of the deposit was thought by early workers to be a lava flow. Even after the distinctive character of welded tuffs and related rocks was discovered, the nature and origin of this deposit remained dubious because textures did not correspond to those in other welded tuff bodies. Yet a lava flow as silicic as this dacite would be viscous instead of spreading out as an extensive sheet. The purpose of this investigation has been to study the deposit, resolve the inconsistencies, and deduce its origin and history. Five stratigraphic zones are distinguished according to differences in the groundmass. From bottom to top the zones are basal tuff, vitrophyre, brown zone, gray zone, and white zone. The three upper zones are distinguished by colors on fresh surfaces, for each weathers to a similar shade of light reddish brown. Nonwelded basal tuff grades upward into the vitrophyre, which is a highly welded tuff. The brown and gray zones consist of highly welded tuff with a lithoidal groundmass. Degree of welding decreases progressively upward through the gray and the white zones, and the upper white zone is nonwelded. Textures are clearly outlined in the lower part of the brown zone, but upward they become more diffuse because of increasing devitrification. In the white zone, original textures are essentially obliterated, and the groundmass consists of spherulites and microcrystalline intergrowths. The chief groundmass minerals are cristobalite and sanidine, with lesser quartz and plagioclase. Phenocrysts comprise about 40 percent of the rock, and their relative proportions are fairly uniform. Almost three-fourths of the phenocrysts are plagioclase, one-tenth quartz, one-tenth biotite, and the remainder sanidine, magnetite, and hornblende, with accessory sphene, zircon, and appetite. Pumice fragments are nearly equidimensional near the top of the sheet, and downward they become progressively more flattened until they finally disappear. The zones and the pumice fragment flattening ration (ratio of length to height) provide means for recognizing several faults within the sheet. Twelve new chemical analyses are nearly uniform in composition. If named according to chemical composition, the rock would be a quartz latite, but when named according to phenocrysts, it is a dacite. From the field occurrence and the interpretation of relict textures, it is concluded that the deposit is an ash-flow sheet containing large amounts of welded tuff, and that it was emplaced by a type of nuee ardente instead of a lava flow or air-fall shower. The nature of zoning and trend of flattening ratios indicate a series of eruptions in rapid enough succession for the sheet to form a single cooling unit. Except in the lower part of the sheet, original textures were obscured by devitrification and crystallization during cooling. Nearly uniform mineralogy and chemistry suggest a single magnetic source. A nearly circular area, about 3? miles in diameter, of altered dacite and earlier volcanic rocks, bounded by intricately faulted and brecciated older rocks, may be the site of a caldera that represents the source of the eruptions.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

Distribution of geogenic arsenic in hydrologic systems: Controls and challenges

The presence of elevated concentration of arsenic (As) in natural hydrologic systems is regarded as the most formidable environmental crisis in the contemporary world. With its substantial presence in the drinking water of more than thirty countries worldwide, and with an affected population of more than 100 million, it has been termed as the largest mass poisoning in human history. In this special issue, we have tried to provide the most recent research advances on controls and challenges of this severe groundwater contaminant. The articles in this issue, originally presented in the 2006 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting, address the distribution of As in various geologic and geographic settings, the controls of redox and other geochemical parameters on its spatial and temporal variability, the influence of sedimentology and stratigraphy on its occurrence, and mechanisms controlling its mobility. The knowledge available from these studies should provide a roadmap for future research in arsenic contamination hydrology.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗

USGS2014

Reconstruction of an early Paleozoic continental margin based on the nature of protoliths in the Nome Complex, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

The Nome Complex is a large metamorphic unit that sits along the southern boundary of the Arctic Alaska–Chukotka terrane, the largest of several micro continental fragments of uncertain origin located between the Siberian and Laurentian cratons. The Arctic Alaska–Chukotka terrane moved into its present position during the Mesozoic; its Mesozoic and older movements are central to reconstruction of Arctic tectonic history. Accurate representation of the Arctic Alaska–Chukotka terrane in reconstructions of Late Proterozoic and early Paleozoic paleogeography is hampered by the paucity of information available. Most of the Late Proterozoic to Paleozoic rocks in the Alaska–Chukotka terrane were penetratively deformed and recrystallized during the Mesozoic deformational events; primary features and relationships have been obliterated, and age control is sparse. We use a variety of geochemical, geochronologic, paleontologic, and geologic tools to read through penetrative deformation and reconstruct the protolith sequence of part of the Arctic Alaska–Chukotka terrane, the Nome Complex. We confirm that the protoliths of the Nome Complex were part of the same Late Proterozoic to Devonian continental margin as weakly deformed rocks in the southern and central part of the terrane, the Brooks Range. We show that the protoliths of the Nome Complex represent a carbonate platform (and related rocks) that underwent incipient rifting, probably during the Ordovician, and that the carbonate platform was overrun by an influx of siliciclastic detritus during the Devonian. During early phases of the transition to siliciclastic deposition, restricted basins formed that were the site of sedimentary exhalative base-metal sulfide deposition. Finally, we propose that most of the basement on which the largely Paleozoic sedimentary protolith was deposited was subducted during the Mesozoic.

Alaska↗

USGS1961

Graphic and algebraic solutions of the discordant lead-uranium age problem

Uranium-bearing minerals that give lead-uranium and lead—lead ages that are essentially in agreement, i.e. concordant, generally are considered to have had a relatively simple geologic history and to have been unaltered since their deposition. The concordant ages obtained on such materials are, therefore, assumed to approach closely the actual age of the minerals. Many uranium-bearing samples, particularly uranium ores, give the following discordant age sequences; Pb 206 U 238 < Pb 207 U 235 ⪡ Pb 207 Pb 206 "> Pb 206 U 238 <Pb 207 U 235 ⪡Pb 207 Pb 206 or, less frequently, Pb 207 Pb 206 ⪡ Pb 207 U 235 < Pb 206 U 238 "> Pb 207 Pb 206 ⪡Pb 207 U 235 <Pb 206 U 238 . These discordant age sequences have been attributed most often to uncertainties in the common lead correction, selective loss of radio-active daughter products, loss or gain of lead or uranium, or contamination by an older generation of radiogenic lead. The evaluation of discordant lead isotope age data may be separated into two operations. The first operation, with which this paper is concerned, is mechanical in nature and involves the calculation of the different possible concordant ages corresponding to the various processes assumed to have produced the discordant ages. The second operation is more difficult to define and requires, in part, some personal judgement. It includes a synthesis of the possible concordant age solutions with other independent geologic and isotopic evidence. The concordant age ultimately chosen as most acceptable should be consistent not only with the known events in the geologic history of the area, the age relations of the enclosing rocks, and the mineralogic and paragenetic evidence, but also with other independent age measurements and the isotopic data obtained on the lead in related or associated non-radioactive minerals. The calculation of the possible concordant ages from discordant age data has been greatly simplified by Wetherill's graphical method of plotting the mole ratios of radiogenic Pb 206 U 238 "> Pb 206 U 238 ( N 206 N 238 "> N 206 N 238 ) vs. radiogenic Pb 207 U 235 "> Pb 207 U 235 ( N 207 N 235 "> N 207 N 235 ) after correcting for the contaminating common Pb 206 and Pb 207 . The linear relationships noted in this graphical procedure have been extended to plots of the mole ratios of total Pb 206 U 238 "> Pb 206 U 238 ( t N 206 N 238 "> t N 206 N 238 ) vs. total Pb 207 U 235 "> Pb 207 U 235 ( t N 207 N 235 "> t N 207 N 235 ). This modification permits the calculation of concordant ages for unaltered samples using only the Pb 207 Pb 206 "> Pb 207 Pb 206 ratio of the contaminating common lead. If isotopic data are available for two samples of the same age, x and y , from the same or related deposits or outcrops, graphs of the normalized difference ratios [ ( N 206 N 204 )x − ( N 206 N 204 )y ( N 238 N 204 )x −( N 238 N 204 )y ] vs. [ ( N 207 N 204 )x − ( N 207 N 204 )y ( N 235 N 204 )x −( N 235 N 204 )y ] "> [(N 206 N 204 )x − (N 206 N 204 )y(N 238 N 204 )x −(N 238 N 204 )y] vs. [(N 207 N 204 )x − (N 207 N 204 )y(N 235 N 204 )x −(N 235 N 204 )y] can give concordant ages corrected for unknown amounts of a common lead with an unknown Pb 207 / Pb 206 ratio. (If thorium is absent the difference ratios may be normalized with the more abundant index isotope, Pb 208 .) Similar plots of tho normalized, difference ratios for three genetically related samples ( x − y ) and( x − z ), will give concordant ages corrected, in addition, for either one unknown period of past alteration or initial contamination by an older generation of radiogenic lead of unknown Pb 207 /Pb 206 ratio. Practical numerical solutions for many of tho concordant age calculations are not currently available. However, the algebraic equivalents of these new graphical methods give equations which may be programmed for computing machines. For geologically probable parameters the equations of higher order have two positive real roots that rapidly converge on the exact concordant ages corrected for original radiogenic lead and for loss or gain of lead or uranium. Modifications of these general age equations expanded only to the second degree have been derived for use with desk calculators. These graphical and algebraic methods clearly suggest both the type and minimum number of samples necessary for adequate mathematical analysis of discordant lead isotope age data. This mathematical treatment also makes it clear that discordant lead isotope data alone cannot provide the basis for the choice of one of the possible concordant age solutions. The new equations, in particular, provide an incentive to improve our physical constants, analytical techniques and sampling methods in order that we may derive all of the useful geologic information that is available in a comprehensive lead isotope age study.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS1974

3,800-Myr granitic gneiss in south-western Minnesota

WE have previously arrived at an age of 3,550 Myr for granitic 1 gneiss in the vicinities of Morton and Montevideo in the Minnesota River valley, south-western Minnesota. We now report new Rb–Sr analyses (Table 1) and an age of 3,800 Myr for the fine grained foliated phase of the Montevideo Gneiss of Lund 2 . The rocks have undergone a complex history of metamorphism which remains to be deciphered, but the age determinations reveal that the geological mapping and previous interpretations did not provide a proper basis for sampling.

Minnesota↗

USGS2008

Weather and Climate Monitoring Protocol, Channel Islands National Park, California

Weather and climate are strong drivers of population dynamics, plant and animal spatial distributions, community interactions, and ecosystem states. Information on local weather and climate is crucial in interpreting trends and patterns in the natural environment for resource management, research, and visitor enjoyment. This document describes the weather and climate monitoring program at the Channel Islands National Park (fig. 1), initiated in the 1990s. Manual and automated stations, which continue to evolve as technology changes, are being used for this program. The document reviews the history of weather data collection on each of the five Channel Islands National Park islands, presents program administrative structure, and provides an overview of procedures for data collection, archival, retrieval, and reporting. This program overview is accompanied by the 'Channel Islands National Park Remote Automated Weather Station Field Handbook' and the 'Channel Islands National Park Ranger Weather Station Field Handbook'. These Handbooks are maintained separately at the Channel Island National Park as 'live documents' that are updated as needed to provide a current working manual of weather and climate monitoring procedures. They are available on request from the Weather Program Manager (Channel Islands National Park, 1901 Spinnaker Dr., Ventura, CA 93001; 805.658.5700). The two Field Handbooks describe in detail protocols for managing the four remote automated weather stations (RAWS) and the seven manual Ranger Weather Stations on the islands, including standard operating procedures for equipment maintenance and calibration; manufacturer operating manuals; data retrieval and archiving; metada collection and archival; and local, agency, and vendor contracts.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2016

Emerging coral diseases in Kāne'ohe Bay, O'ahu, Hawai'i (USA): two major disease outbreaks of acute Montipora white syndrome

In March 2010 and January 2012, we documented 2 widespread and severe coral disease outbreaks on reefs throughout Kāne‘ohe Bay, Hawai‘i (USA). The disease, acute Montipora white syndrome (aMWS), manifested as acute and progressive tissue loss on the common reef coral M. capitata . Rapid visual surveys in 2010 revealed 338 aMWS-affected M. capitata colonies with a disease abundance of (mean ± SE) 0.02 ± 0.01 affected colonies per m of reef surveyed. In 2012, disease abundance was significantly higher (1232 aMWS-affected colonies) with 0.06 ± 0.02 affected colonies m -1 . Prior surveys found few acute tissue loss lesions in M. capitata in Kāne‘ohe Bay; thus, the high number of infected colonies found during these outbreaks would classify this as an emerging disease. Disease abundance was highest in the semi-enclosed region of south Kāne‘ohe Bay, which has a history of nutrient and sediment impacts from terrestrial runoff and stream discharge. In 2010, tagged colonies showed an average tissue loss of 24% after 1 mo, and 92% of the colonies continued to lose tissue in the subsequent month but at a slower rate (chronic tissue loss). The host-specific nature of this disease (affecting only M. capitata ) and the apparent spread of lesions between M. capitata colonies in the field suggest a potential transmissible agent. The synchronous appearance of affected colonies on multiple reefs across Kāne‘ohe Bay suggests a common underlying factor. Both outbreaks occurred during the colder, rainy winter months, and thus it is likely that some parameter(s) associated with winter environmental conditions are linked to the emergence of disease outbreaks on these reefs.

Diseases of Aquatic Organisms↗

USGS2023

Refining capture-recapture recruitment estimation methods for Atlantic sturgeon

The Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus was once of great commercial importance in many coastal rivers of the eastern USA. Over the 19th and 20th centuries, most historical stocks of Atlantic sturgeon were depleted by human activities. Estimating recruitment for the remaining populations is challenging due to sampling constraints, limited age data, and natural variability. However, recruitment estimates could inform recovery efforts. The objectives of this study were to compare 2 modeling approaches to estimate recruitment of age-1 Atlantic sturgeon and provide an updated index of abundance across more than a decade of sampling in the Altamaha River, Georgia. First, we constructed capture histories of river-resident juveniles, using capture-mark-recapture data collected from 2008 to 2020, and assigned ages based on length-frequency analysis. Second, we compared more traditional Huggins closed population models and a recent nonlinear extension of Huggins models—vector generalized additive models (VGAMs)—to estimate abundance of age-1 fish. Both model types indicated similar yearly age-1 abundance estimates (Huggins: 163 in 2017 to 3839 in 2010; VGAM: 312 in 2020 to 4448 in 2010), but the VGAMs provided more direct interpretation for factors that might affect capture probability (e.g. sampling effort, temperature, fish length). This study indicates that the age-1 Altamaha River Atlantic sturgeon population has remained relatively stable over the past decade and provides a long-term baseline which will better enable managers to assess the effects of either future restoration actions or environmental disturbances on the population.

Georgia↗

USGS2007

Sedimentation History of Lago Dos Bocas, Puerto Rico, 1942-2005

The Lago Dos Bocas Dam, located in the municipality of Utuado in north central Puerto Rico, was constructed in 1942 for hydroelectric power generation. The reservoir had an original storage capacity of 37.50 million cubic meters and a drainage area of 440 square kilometers. In 1948, the construction of the Lago Caonillas Dam on the Rio Caonillas branch of Lago Dos Bocas reduced the natural sediment-contributing drainage area to 310 square kilometers; therefore, the Lago Caonillas Dam is considered an effective sediment trap. Sedimentation in Lago Dos Bocas reservoir has reduced the storage capacity from 37.50 million cubic meters in 1942 to 17.26 million cubic meters in 2005, which represents a storage loss of about 54 percent. The long-term annual water-storage capacity loss rate remained nearly constant at about 320,000 cubic meters per year to about 1997. The inter-survey sedimentation rate between 1997 and 1999, however, is higher than the long-term rate at about 1.09 million cubic meters per year. Between 1999 and 2005 the rate is lower than the long-term rate at about 0.13 million cubic meters per year. The Lago Dos Bocas effective sediment-contributing drainage area had an average sediment yield of about 1,400 cubic meters per square kilometer per year between 1942 and 1997. This rate increased substantially by 1999 to about 4,600 cubic meters per square kilometer per year, probably resulting from the historical magnitude floods caused by Hurricane Georges in 1998. Recent data indicate that the Lago Dos Bocas drainage area sediment yield decreased substantially to about 570 cubic meters per square kilometer per year, which is much lower than the 1942-1997 area normalized sedimentation rate of 1,235 cubic meters per square kilometer per year. The impact of Hurricane Georges on the basin sediment yield could have been the cause of this change, since the magnitude of the floods could have nearly depleted the Lago Dos Bocas drainage area of easily erodible and transportable bed sediment. This report summarizes the historical change in water-storage capacity of Lago Dos Bocas between 1942 and 2005.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—A case study in partnership development

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) is a successful example of collaboration between science and natural resource management at the landscape scale. In southwestern Wyoming, expanding energy and mineral development, urban growth, and other changes in land use over recent decades, combined with landscape-scale drivers such as climate change and invasive species, have presented compelling challenges to resource managers and a diverse group of Federal, State, industry, and non-governmental organizations, as well as citizen stakeholders. To address these challenges, the WLCI was established as a collaborative forum and interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. About a decade after being established, this report documents the establishment and history of the WLCI, focusing on the path to success of the initiative and providing insights and details that may be useful in developing similar partnerships in other locations. Not merely retrospective, the elements of the WLCI that are presented herein are still in play, still evolving, and still contributing to the resolution of compelling conservation challenges in the Western United States. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed many successful longstanding partnerships, of which the WLCI is one example. “As the Nation’s largest water, earth, and biological science and civilian mapping agency, the U.S. Geological Survey collects, monitors, analyzes, and provides scientific understanding about natural resource conditions, issues, and problems. The diversity of our scientific expertise enables us to carry out large-scale, multi-disciplinary investigations and provide impartial scientific information to resource managers, planners, and other customers” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2016).

Wyoming↗

USGS2013

Modeling the effects of naturally occurring organic carbon on chlorinated ethene transport to a public supply well

The vulnerability of public supply wells to chlorinated ethene (CE) contamination in part depends on the availability of naturally occurring organic carbon to consume dissolved oxygen (DO) and initiate reductive dechlorination. This was quantified by building a mass balance model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer, which is widely used for public water supply in New Jersey. This model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three-dimensional (3D) MODFLOW model to the approximate capture zone of a single public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. This local model was then used to compute a mass balance between dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and adsorbed organic carbon (AOC) that act as electron donors and DO, CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors (EAs) using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. SEAM3D was constrained by varying concentrations of DO and DOC entering the aquifer via recharge, varying the bioavailable fraction of POC in aquifer sediments, and comparing observed and simulated vertical concentration profiles of DO and DOC. This procedure suggests that approximately 15% of the POC present in aquifer materials is readily bioavailable. Model simulations indicate that transport of perchloroethene (PCE) and its daughter products trichloroethene (TCE), cis -dichloroethene ( cis -DCE), and vinyl chloride (VC) to the public supply well is highly sensitive to the assumed bioavailable fraction of POC, concentrations of DO entering the aquifer with recharge, and the position of simulated PCE source areas in the flow field. The results are less sensitive to assumed concentrations of DOC in aquifer recharge. The mass balance approach used in this study also indicates that hydrodynamic processes such as advective mixing, dispersion, and sorption account for a significant amount of the observed natural attenuation in this system.

New Jersey↗

USGS2025

Population genetics of the endangered narrowly endemic Island Marble butterfly (Euchloe ausonides insulanus)

The Island Marble butterfly ( Euchloe ausonides insulanus ) is an endangered species endemic to the San Juan Islands off the coast of Washington State, United States, and British Columbia, Canada. The species was thought to be extinct for ~ 90 years before it was rediscovered at American Camp, San Juan Island National Historical Park in 1998. Here, we report the results of the first population genetic analyses for insulanus , using DNA collected non-invasively from individuals in the last known stronghold for the species. We used DNA extracted from meconium, larval exuviae, and natural mortalities to generate and test thirteen new microsatellite markers to estimate genetic diversity, population structure, and kinship. We assembled and annotated mitochondrial genomes, which were used alongside museum specimens of insulanus collected ~ 100 years ago from Vancouver Island, and other members of the E. ausonides species complex, to infer the evolutionary history of the species. The results indicated that insulanus experiences low heterozygosity, a small effective population size (N e ), and low allelic diversity. High levels of inbreeding were found in some individuals, but inbreeding was uneven across the population. No population structure or partitioning of genetic variation by host plant was detected. The mitogenomes of extant insulanus were all identical and modern samples showed a loss of allelic diversity compared to insulanus from museums. Extant insulanus formed a clade with museum specimens and we identified multiple putatively diagnostic alleles to differentiate insulanus from other subspecies. Based on these results, we outline considerations for species management and genetic monitoring.

British Columbia, Washington↗

USGS1999

Fossils, rocks, and time

We study our Earth for many reasons: to find water to drink or oil to run our cars or coal to heat our homes, to know where to expect earthquakes or landslides or floods, and to try to understand our natural surroundings. Earth is constantly changing--nothing on its surface is truly permanent. Rocks that are now on top of a mountain may once have been at the bottom of the sea. Thus, to understand the world we live on, we must add the dimension of time. We must study Earth's history. When we talk about recorded history, time is measured in years, centuries, and tens of centuries. When we talk about Earth history, time is measured in millions and billions of years. Time is an everyday part of our lives. We keep track of time with a marvelous invention, the calendar, which is based on the movements of Earth in space. One spin of Earth on its axis is a day, and one trip around the Sun is a year. The modern calendar is a great achievement, developed over many thousands of years as theory and technology improved. People who study Earth's history also use a type of calendar, called the geologic time scale. It looks very different from the familiar calendar. In some ways, it is more like a book, and the rocks are its pages. Some of the pages are torn or missing, and the pages are not numbered, but geology gives us the tools to help us read this book.

Report↗

USGS1993

Fossils, rocks, and time

We study out Earth for many reasons: to find water to drink or oil to run our cars or coal to heat our homes, to know where to expect earthquakes or landslides or floods, and to try to understand our natural surroundings. Earth is constantly changing--nothing on its surface is truly permanent. Rocks that are not on top of a mountain may once have been on the bottom of the sea. Thus, to understand the world we live on, we must add the dimension of time. We must study Earth's history. When we talk about recorded history, time is measured in years, centuries, and tens of centuries. When we talk about Earth history, time is measured in millions and billions of years. Time is an everyday part of our lives. We keep track of time with a marvelous invention, the calendar, which is based on the movements of the Earth in space. One spin of Earth on its axis is a day, and one trip around the sun is a year. The modern calendar is a great achievement, developed over many thousands of years as theory and technology improved. People who study Earth's history also use a type of calendar, called the geologic time scale. It looks very different from the familiar calendar. In some ways, it is more like a book, and the rocks are its pages. Some of the pages are torn or missing, and the pages are not numbered, but geology gives us the tools to help us read this book.

General Interest Publication↗

USGS2011

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $ 300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $ 400 billion, of which $ 20 to $ 30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $ 325 billion in addition to the $ 400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $ 725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. (6) Common messages to educate the public about the risk of such an extreme disaster as the ARkStorm scenario could be developed and consistently communicated to facilitate policy formulation and transformation. These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.

California↗

USGS2000

Ecosystem history of Biscayne Bay and the southeast coast

Overview The U.S. Geological Survey is participating in a multi-institutional effort to assess, monitor, and restore the ecosystem of South Florida. Federal, State and local agencies are collaborating to establish a firm scientific basis for land management and water policy issues. Historical changes in South Florida related to rapid population growth in the early to middle 1900's have led to significant alteration of the natural hydrocycles and water quality of Florida and Biscayne Bays. These changes have affected the salinity and nutrient supply and introduced toxic components into Biscayne Bay. The Biscayne Bay ecosystem shows increasing signs of distress: declines in fisheries, increased pollution, and dramatic changes in nearshore vegetation. Northern and central Biscayne Bay are strongly affected by the urban development associated with the growth of Miami. Southern Biscayne Bay is influenced by drainage from the Everglades, which has been altered by canals and agricultural activities. Restoration and preservation of Biscayne Bay and Biscayne National Park are dependent on a comprehensive understanding of the linkages between the hydrologic system and the bay ecosystem, and of natural versus human-induced variability of the ecosystem.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2022

Engaging stakeholders to develop a decision support model of conservation risk and management capacity to prioritize investments in Bull Trout recovery

Rarely are sufficient resources available to support the full suite of management actions to promote recovery of a species across their entire distribution. Decision support models are a tool that can inform natural resource management decisions with consideration of the perspectives from a variety of stakeholders who work across large geographic and jurisdictional extents. We offer an example of a decision support model that was developed by several Federal and State natural resource agencies to rank Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus core areas for prioritizing conservation investment within Oregon, USA. We engaged State level decision makers to identify parameters believed to be influential in determining funding allocations for Bull Trout core areas. Parameters were linked in a model framework that was further refined with input from local Bull Trout experts with knowledge specific to the various core areas. The model produces a relative priority value that is a combination of the conservation risk to the species and the management capacity to address threats. A series of sensitivity analyses suggests that Bull Trout persistence and threat score are most influential in determining the relative priority of a core area, and life-history and genetic diversity are least influential. One of the more powerful products from this work is an interactive web-based application ( https://das.ecosphere.fws.gov/public/obts/ ) that anyone can use to explore how their beliefs in parameter values will affect the relative priority of Bull Trout core areas across Oregon. Our modeling effort is an example of engaging stakeholders with different roles in species recovery and across a large geographic area to create a clearer path forward in allocating limited resources for species recovery. This approach can be employed to address a number of natural resource management situations across species and habitats.

Oregon↗