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USGS2025

Deterministic physics-based earthquake sequence simulators match empirical ground-motion models and enable extrapolation to data poor regimes: Application to multifault multimechanism ruptures

We use the deterministic earthquake simulator RSQSim to generate complex sequences of ruptures on fault systems used for hazard assessment. We show that the source motions combined with a wave propagation code create surface ground motions that fall within the range of epistemic uncertainties for the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 set of empirical models. We show the model is well calibrated where there are good data constraints, and has good correspondence in regions with fewer data constraints. We show magnitude, distance, and mechanism dependence all arising naturally from the same underlying friction. The deterministic physics‐based approach provides an opportunity for better understanding the physical origins of ground motions. For example, we find that reduced stress drops in shallow layers relative to constant stress drop with depth lead to peak ground velocities in the near field that better match empirical models. The simulators may also provide better extrapolations into regimes that are poorly empirically constrained by data because physics, rather than surface shaking data parameterizations, is underlying the extrapolations. Having shown the model is credible, we apply it to a problem where observations are lacking. We examine the case of crustal faults above a shallow subduction interface seen to break coseismically in simulations of the New Zealand fault system. These types of events were left out of consideration in the most recent New Zealand national seismic hazard model due to the modeling complexity and lack of observational data to constrain ground‐motion models (GMMs). Here, we show that in the model, by breaking up the coseismic crustal and interface rupturing fault motions into two separate subevents, and then recombining the resulting ground‐motion measures in a square‐root‐of‐sum‐of‐squares incoherent manner, we reproduce well the ground‐motion measures from the full event rupture. This provides a new method for extrapolating GMMs to more complex multifault ruptures.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS1989

Toxic effects of boron on mallard reproduction

Boron, a naturally occurring trace element generally considered environmentally innocuous, was documented to severely impair mallard reproduction. Boron is leached from irrigated agricultural soils and transported in drainage water that contaminates wetlands. Until now, only the selenium accumulated in aquatic food chains has been documented to pose a toxic hazard to wildlife in drainage water wetlands. Adult mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) ducks were fed diets supplemented with 0, 30, 300 or 1,000 ppm boron (fresh weight; diets contained about 10% moisture). The hatching success of fertile eggs was significantly reduced by 1,000 ppm boron, less than one-third the highest boron concentrations found in plants in California's San Joaquin Valley. Hatching weights, duckling survival and duckling weight gain were also reduced by 1,000 ppm boron. Boron concentrations in mallard egg, liver and brain tissues were dose-related. Boron did not affect adult survival or egg fertility. Management of drainage water-contaminated environments must now also consider the adverse effects of boron, as well as the possible interactions of drainage water contaminants.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2011

Fire and the fire regime framework

A global view of potential vs. actual vegetation distributions points to fire as a major driver of biome distribution and determinant of community structure (Bond et al . 2005). In ecological terms, fire acts much like an herbivore, consuming biomass and competing with biotic consumers for resources, and in this sense is an important part of trophic ecology (Bond & Keeley 2005). As in other competitive interactions, not only can fire competitively exclude herbivores by temporarily eliminating resources, but intensive grazing is known to exclude fire by consuming herbaceous ground fuels (Savage & Swetnam 1990). Coexistence is often enhanced by temporal separation of trophic niches, with herbivores grazing early in the spring on green herbaceous material that is unavailable for burning, whereas later in the season the remaining dry thatch is readily consumed by fire. In many respects fire is a more potent competitor because it is not limited by either toxins or protein deficiency and readily consumes dead woody biomass, but by contrast it is often limited by ignition sources and continuity of fuels. Fire scientists have long symbolized the critical elements of fire in a triangle of fuel, oxygen and heat (Pyne et al . 1996). These are indeed necessary for fire ignition and propagation but are insufficient for predicting the global distribution of fire-prone ecosystems. The conditions both necessary and sufficient to explain the ecological distribution of fire activity can be summarized by four parameters: biomass, seasonality, ignitions and fuel structure (Fig. 2.1). In addition to biomass fuels to spread a fire there must be a dry season that converts potential fuels to available fuels. In mediterranean-type climate (MTC) ecosystems summer drought results in high fire hazard on an annual basis, in contrast to many temperate forests that are only periodically vulnerable to fire in response to decadal or longer oscillations in climate. Vegetation only burns when ignitions are present to initiate the combustion process and landscapes vary markedly in the potential for natural ignitions from lightning, and in the extent of anthropogenic ignition sources. However, understanding the ecosystem distribution of fire requires consideration of a fourth parameter, fuel structure, which is fundamental to recognizing how different fire regimes develop.

Book chapter↗

USGS1964

Geology applied to study of coal mine bumps and mining methods at Sunnyside, Utah

Coal mine bumps are a serious hazard to life and property in the mines of east-central Utah. Research into geologic factors associated with these bumps indicates that the bumps are spatially and genetically related to structural and stratigraphic features. Some bumps are directly related to stress accumulation along faults, either from natural causes or as a result of mining. Frictional properties of bedding planes between coal and roof rock, and between some rock units within the roof, directly affect the deformation of coal ribs, and hence the incidence of bumps. These frictional properties are related to the lithology of the roof rocks as well as to the sedimentary structures within the rocks. Commonly a sequence consisting of 1- 3 ft of carbonaceous siltstone, about 2- 3 ft of rider coal, and several feet of massive siltstone or sandstone overlies the main seam. The sequence causes difficult roof conditions in the mines, difficult mining conditions, and directly or indirectly many bumps.

Utah↗

USGS2011

Mercury on the move during snowmelt in Vermont

Although mercury (Hg) emissions peaked in the United States over the last 20 to 40 years and are now declining, they remain well above natural background levels in soils and sediments. Only a small fraction of the Hg deposited from the atmosphere to the terrestrial landscape runs off in streamflow. However, some of this Hg is methylated in the environment and can potentially bioaccumulate to the top of food webs, posing a hazard to people who eat fish, especially children and pregnant women. What factors determine the amount of Hg that runs off in streams? During the 2000 snowmelt at Sleepers River in Vermont, strong correlations were found between dissolved and particulate mercury and the respective dissolved and particulate organic carbon fractions, even when data were pooled from 10 streams of diverse watershed size and land cover. Episodic export of particulate Hg during the highest flows appears to be the dominant mechanism of Hg movement.

Vermont↗

USGS1992

Sampling and analysis for radon-222 dissolved in ground water and surface water

Radon-222 is a naturally occurring radioactive gas in the uranium-238 decay series that has traditionally been called, simply, radon. The lung cancer risks associated with the inhalation of radon decay products have been well documented by epidemiological studies on populations of uranium miners. The realization that radon is a public health hazard has raised the need for sampling and analytical guidelines for field personnel. Several sampling and analytical methods are being used to document radon concentrations in ground water and surface water worldwide but no convenient, single set of guidelines is available. Three different sampling and analytical methods-bubbler, liquid scintillation, and field screening-are discussed in this paper. The bubbler and liquid scintillation methods have high accuracy and precision, and small analytical method detection limits of 0.2 and 10 pCi/l (picocuries per liter), respectively. The field screening method generally is used as a qualitative reconnaissance tool.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2025

Nodal seismic deployment on Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii: Dataset and preliminary insights

Mauna Loa is the largest active volcano on Earth, comprising ∼51% of the Island of Hawai‘i’s landmass and posing significant risks to the island’s communities, infrastructure, and natural environment. Historical eruptions have produced lava flows that have reached the ocean in as little as 3 hr. The timing and location of such lava flows in the past 200 yr underscore how critical determination of the location and geometry of magma storage and structure is for volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting. Now, after nearly 38 yr of volcanic quiescence, Mauna Loa has erupted again. On 27 November 2022, fissures initiated within the summit caldera and then migrated to the northeast rift zone, where they generated a large lava flow that threatened a major highway. To improve our understanding of the geometry of this magma system, we deployed a temporary nodal array on Mauna Loa in the summer of 2024. This increased our seismic coverage sufficiently to image this magmatic system. This nodal array consists of 33 seismometers distributed on and around the volcano and was deployed for over three months to record seismic signals. The primary objective of this project is to resolve the high‐resolution seismic velocity structure and characterize seismic features associated with magma storage and ascent pathways. In this article, we present an overview of the deployment, evaluate the quality of the data, and show example recordings to evaluate the suitability of the data set for future seismic investigations, including earthquake relocation, seismic tomography, and receiver function analysis. Comparisons with nearby permanent broadband and short‐period seismic stations demonstrate that the nodal array recorded high‐quality waveforms, making it a valuable resource for constraining the magmatic system beneath Mauna Loa at multiple scales.

Hawaii↗

USGS1987

Development of sinkholes resulting from man's activities in the Eastern United States

Development of induced sinkholes in carbonate terranes in the Eastern United States has resulted in costly damage and water pollution. Previously, detailed investigations of sinkholes were limited to Alabama and Missouri, with the most comprehensive being in Alabama. An investigation of the remainder of the area was made in 1981 to regionalize previous findings. More than 850 sites of sinkhole development have been identified in 19 States. It is estimated that more than 6,500 sinkholes or related features have formed at these sites. Most have occurred since 1950. Based on information available, States most impacted are Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. The total cost of damage and associated protective measures resulting from induced sinkholes is unknown. Costs reported for a limited number of sites were about $170 million--expended almost entirely after 1970. About $140 million were expended at five dams in four States and to repair or protect highways in two States. Sinkholes are of two types, natural and induced {accelerated or caused by man}. The sudden development of both types results from the collapse of the roof of a cavity or cavern in rock, or from the downward migration of unconsolidated deposits into solutionally enlarged openings in the top of bedrock. The occurrence of sinkholes resulting from bedrock roof collapses, in comparison with the occurrence of sinkholes resulting from downward migration of unconsolidated deposits, is rare. Induced sinkholes are of two types: those resulting from a decline in water level due to ground-water withdrawals and those resulting from construction. Sinkholes resulting from water-level declines are caused by loss of buoyant support, increase in velocity of water movement, water-level fluctuations, and induced recharge. Most induced sinkholes resulting from construction are caused by the diversion or impoundment of surface drainage over unconsolidated deposits resting on openings in the top of bedrock. Collapse mechanisms include loading, saturation, and piping. Assessment of existing or potential sinkhole problems at a site requires recognition of features associated with sinkhole development and knowledge of triggering mechanisms that cause sinkholes. Natural sinkhole development is generally not predictable. Induced sinkhole development is predictable in some instances, but is predictable only in the sense that it will occur in a particular area. The most predictable development results from dewatering by wells, quarries, and mines. Alternatives that allow avoiding or minimizing sinkhole hazards are most numerous when a problem or potential problem is recognized during site evaluation. The number of alternatives declines after the beginning of site development. Where sinkhole development is predictable, zoning of land use can minimize hazards.

Circular↗

USGS2014

Hurricane Sandy: observations and analysis of coastal change

Hurricane Sandy, the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, made landfall on October 29, 2012, and impacted a long swath of the U.S. Atlantic coastline. The barrier islands were breached in a number of places and beach and dune erosion occurred along most of the Mid-Atlantic coast. As a part of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project, the U.S. Geological Survey collected post-Hurricane Sandy oblique aerial photography and lidar topographic surveys to document the changes that occurred as a result of the storm. Comparisons of post-storm photographs to those collected prior to Sandy’s landfall were used to characterize the nature, magnitude, and spatial variability of hurricane-induced coastal changes. Analysis of pre- and post-storm lidar elevations was used to quantify magnitudes of change in shoreline position, dune elevation, and beach width. Erosion was observed along the coast from North Carolina to New York; however, as would be expected over such a large region, extensive spatial variability in storm response was observed.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1988

The potential for catastrophic dam failure at Lake Nyos maar, Cameroon

The upper 40 m of Lake Nyos is bounded on the north by a narrow dam of poorly consolidated pyroclastic rocks, emplaced during the eruptive formation of the Lake Nyos maar a few hundred years ago. This 50-m-wide natural dam is structurally weak and is being eroded at an uncertain, but geologically alarming, rate. The eventual failure of the dam could cause a major flood (estimated peak discharge, 17000 m3/s) that would have a tragic impact on downstream areas as far as Nigeria, 108 km away. This serious hazard could be eliminated by lowering the lake level, either by controlled removal of the dam or by construction of a 680-m-long drainage tunnel about 65 m below the present lake surface. Either strategy would also lessen the lethal effects of future massive CO2 gas releases, such as the one that occurred in August 1986. ?? 1988 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2026

Recent scientific contributions by the U.S. Geological Survey in the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta Estuary

Introduction The San Francisco Bay and Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta Estuary (hereafter, Bay-Delta) is the largest estuary on the West Coast of the United States. The Bay-Delta covers more than 1,600 square miles and drains a watershed of more than 75,000 square miles, which is greater than 40 percent of California. The region surrounding the Bay-Delta is home to about 10 million people, and its habitats (fig. 1) support more than 800 plant and animal species. The waterways of the Bay-Delta are the central hub of California’s extensive freshwater delivery system, supplying water to more than 27 million Californians and 4 million acres of farmland in the Central Valley. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the primary science agency of the U.S. Department of the Interior, providing a broad range of Earth, water, biological, and mapping data and expertise to inform natural resource management across the country. This fact sheet focuses on research conducted by the USGS in the Bay-Delta region, mostly within the past 5 years. The fact sheet is organized across five major themes: water flow and water quality, fish and wildlife, wetland restoration, invasive species, and hazards. In each of these areas, the USGS works closely with Federal, State, and local agencies; academia; and non-governmental organizations to provide objective, evidence-based science. The data and knowledge gained from USGS research and monitoring are publicly available and are routinely used by agencies, including the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, California Department of Water Resources, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, California State Water Resources Control Board, Delta Stewardship Council, and many additional organizations and stakeholders to inform management of the Bay-Delta region and its resources.

California↗

USGS2024

Incorporating climate data into emergency planning and exercises: A primer for emergency management practioners and data developers

Climate change has and will continue to sharpen climate-related risks to communities and natural resources in California and elsewhere, as the probabilities of more extreme weather, floods, and fires continue to increase. This poses a problem of novel situations for emergency management. Progress has been made in terms of formally incorporating climate projections, data, and research on expected changes in climate-driven hazards into long-term hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies at both state and national levels. However, there are fewer examples of how climate change considerations have, or could be, incorporated into shorter-term emergency preparedness and response strategies. This is an important gap to fill, as climate resilience depends not only on mitigation and prevention measures, but also on the ability of agencies to coordinate and effectively minimize impacts when prevention measures fall short. The goal of this primer is to provide guidance on how to incorporate the best available information on climate variability and change into emergency management planning, with a focus on the development and use of extreme weather event scenarios for use in exercises. The first section is aimed toward a broad audience, including emergency management practitioners who use extreme weather event scenarios. It provides an overview of available data and tools that can inform scenario design as well as techniques for scenario design based on the hazard of interest, the audience and application, and the technical skills and resources required to develop, summarize, and/or visualize the data. This section concludes with an overview of approaches and lessons learned related to extreme event response planning and exercise design. Overall, this section highlights the advantages of developing quantitative scenarios based on spatial data, which allows visualizations and interactive data explorations that can provide greater specificity in discussions related to preparedness and response strategies. It further highlights the advantages of developing a core expert working group to guide planning, holding pre-exercise workshops to engage diverse communities outside of the emergency management sector, and engaging decisionmakers post-exercise to communicate key issues and outcomes as well as potential approaches for mitigating consequences that were identified by participants. The second section is aimed toward the scientific community and data developers involved in the creation of extreme weather event scenarios. This section provides technical guidance and detailed descriptions of four types of data resources and five analytical approaches that can be used to create extreme weather event scenarios based on the design considerations highlighted in section one. The computational resources and expertise required varies substantially across the options presented and is a primary consideration. These requirements, in addition to considerations related to audience and application, may determine the novelty and detail of the event, the detail of weather forecast information that can be provided, and the spatial extent across which the event can reasonably be modeled. The importance of, and approaches for, delivering information in a form that is accessible to emergency management practitioners is also discussed.

Report↗

USGS2025

Onset and evolution of summit lava fountaining during the Mauna Loa 2022 eruption

The start of the Mauna Loa 2022 eruption in the Mokuʻāweoweo summit caldera was entirely captured through webcam videos. We analyzed footage from the ~ 7-h summit episode, processing > 87,000 frames using a newly automated method to measure fountain heights, fissure lengths, and inflight ejecta volumes. The summit episode comprised four phases. In Phase 1 (~ 1 h ), a ~ 1 km long fissure propagated from southwest to northeast, with steady fountain heights reaching 125 m. In Phase 2 (~ 50 min ), two further fissure segments extended the total length to ~ 2.4 km, with fountains focused into point sources reaching up to 70 m. In Phase 3 (~ 70 min ), the eruption was steady with no major changes in eruptive behavior. In Phase 4 (~ 4 h ), fountains became unsteady and weak (< 30 m). Fissure growth rates varied from ~ 20 to -9 m/min, and bulk magma flux peaked at 2.7 × 10 4 m 3 /s. An inverse relationship between maximum fountain heights and fissure lengths suggests that total magma flux was nearly constant until Phase 4. We propose an interconnected feeding system for the summit episode with a preferential pathway for gas-rich magma in the southwest portion of the caldera. The sustained nature of the episode was likely driven by the fast rise of melt coupled with small bubbles, with trains of decoupled larger bubbles producing pulsations. Webcam videography was an effective tool to quantify early-stage eruption parameters and could be further explored for rapid response and fine-tuning of hazard mitigation strategies on erupting basaltic volcanoes.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

Toward a total water level forecast of the Great Lakes

The combined effect of storm surge and large waves is the main driving mechanism that erodes beaches, inundates low-lying areas, leading to millions of dollars in property damage, loss of natural resources, and lives. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aims to expand the real-time total water level (TWL) forecast provided in the Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts (TWL&CC) to the Great Lakes short- (0 – 36 hours) to medium-term (3 – 5 days) coastal-hazard forecasts to inform planners and emergency responders. This study assesses the skill of forecast water levels and wave characteristics required as input to the TWL forecasts. It finds that, while skill generally decreases as forecast period increases, these data are suitable as input to the TWL forecast system. As the TWL predictions depend on the water level and wave forecasts, validation against field observations allow evaluation of their suitability for the Great Lakes. These results have implications on the prediction of water levels and their potential impacts on coastal resiliency in North America.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2007

Relatively simple through-going fault planes at large-earthquake depth may be concealed by the surface complexity of strike-slip faults

At the surface, strike-slip fault stepovers, including abrupt fault bends, are typically regions of complex, often disconnected faults. This complexity has traditionally led geologists studying the hazard of active faults to consider such stepovers as important fault segment boundaries, and to give lower weight to earthquake scenarios that involve rupture through the stepover zone. However, recent geological and geophysical studies of several stepover zones along the San Andreas fault system in California have revealed that the complex nature of the fault zone at the surface masks a much simpler and direct connection at depths associated with large earthquakes (greater than 5 km). In turn, the simplicity of the connection suggests that a stepover zone would provide less of an impediment to through-going rupture in a large earthquake, so that the role of stepovers as segment boundaries has probably been overemphasized. However, counter-examples of fault complexity at depth associated with surface stepovers are known, so the role of stepovers in fault rupture behaviour must be carefully established in each case.

California↗

USGS2026

Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program decadal science strategy 2020–2030

Overview The decadal science strategy of the Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program (CMHRP) of the U.S. Geological Survey for 2020 to 2030 describes the CMHRP's vision and mission and the strategic framework needed to support key program goals: Conduct research and develop science-based tools that lead to safer, more productive coastal communities and improved stewardship of natural resources.

Circular↗

USGS2008

Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

Eruption of Yellowstone's Old Faithful Geyser. Yellowstone hosts the world's largest and most diverse collection of natural thermal features, which are the surface expression of magmatic heat at shallow depths in the crust. The Yellowstone system is monitored by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), a partnership among the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Yellowstone National Park, and the University of Utah. YVO is one of five USGS Volcano Hazards Program observatories that monitor U.S. volcanoes for science and public safety. Learn more about Yellowstone and YVO at http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo.

General Information Product↗

USGS2021

The proliferation of induced seismicity in the Permian Basin, Texas

The Permian Basin has a long history of induced earthquakes, but the seismicity rates have increased dramatically over the past two decades and included a M W 5.0 likely induced by wastewater disposal (WD) in March 2020. A detailed characterization of the proliferation of seismicity in the Permian Basin throughout this time period is needed for improving the scientific understanding of the mechanisms responsible and for mitigating future seismic hazard. Due to a sparse regional seismic network before the advent of Texas Seismological Network in 2017, we characterize seismicity using the 10-station TXAR array that is 100s of km away from most of the seismicity, with the objective of improving upon the substantial contributions from previous work. By exploiting the nature of waveform similarity, we detect events with template matching, performing a quantitative analysis of spatially varying detection capabilities throughout the study area. From an initial catalog of 10,753 events, we identify 45,009 earthquakes and 10,208 quarry blasts. Using our catalog of earthquakes, we improve epicentral locations, compare relative magnitude techniques, and associate earthquakes to WD or hydraulic stimulations. We further use our earthquake catalog to investigate the relationship between seismicity and human activities near the city of Pecos, Texas. Through a comparison of our earthquake catalog with industrial records, we determine that the vast majority seismicity near Pecos, Texas, since 2000 is likely induced by an increase of WD at wells injecting at depths greater than 1.5 km.

Texas↗