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USGS2021

Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States

Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate future streamflow in seven water resource regions in the southwestern U.S. using a new SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) streamflow model. We present streamflow projections corresponding to input data from seven climate models and two greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) for three, thirty-year intervals centered on the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, and for a historical thirty year interval centered on the 1990s. Across water resource regions, about half of the RCP4.5 models (51%) and two thirds of the RCP8.5 models (67%) indicate decreases in streamflow in the 2080s relative to the historical period. Models project maximum decreases in streamflow of 36–80% in all water resource regions for all periods and RCPs relative to historical streamflow, and maximum streamflow decreases of up to 20–45% in the 2080s at sites along the Colorado River used for measuring compliance with interstate and international water agreements. Headwaters are projected to experience the greatest declines, with substantial downstream implications. Among these estimates, the streamflows from models forced with RCP8.5 tend to be lower than those forced with RCP4.5. Not all climate models, times, and RCPs project widespread streamflow declines. The most ubiquitous streamflow increases are projected to occur in the 2030s under RCP4.5. Later time periods and enhanced greenhouse gas forcings indicate smaller regions of streamflow increase and lower accumulated streamflows, suggesting that limiting or reducing greenhouse gas concentrations could support future water availability. Although some possible streamflow increases are promising, the modest and spatially limited increases in streamflow projected for later time periods are still unlikely to be sufficient to meet the projected water demand. These results inform the likelihood of future water agreement compliance, and support developing strategies to balance water supply and demand.

Arizona, California, Colorado Idaho, Nevada, New M↗

USGS2017

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2008

Western juniper and ponderosa pine ecotonal climate-growth relationships across landscape gradients in southern Oregon

Forecasts of climate change for the Pacific northwestern United States predict warmer temperatures, increased winter precipitation, and drier summers. Prediction of forest growth responses to these climate fluctuations requires identification of climatic variables limiting tree growth, particularly at limits of free species distributions. We addressed this problem at the pine-woodland ecotone using tree-ring data for western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis var. occidentalis Hook.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Loud.) from southern Oregon. Annual growth chronologies for 1950-2000 were developed for each species at 17 locations. Correlation and linear regression of climate-growth relationships revealed that radial growth in both species is highly dependent on October-June precipitation events that recharge growing season soil water. Mean annual radial growth for the nine driest years suggests that annual growth in both species is more sensitive to drought at lower elevations and sites with steeper slopes and sandy or rocky soils. Future increases in winter precipitation could increase productivity in both species at the pine-woodland ecotone. Growth responses, however, will also likely vary across landscape features, and our findings suggest that heightened sensitivity to future drought periods and increased temperatures in the two species will predominantly occur at lower elevation sites with poor water-holding capacities. ?? 2008 NRC.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2018

Effects of distribution, behavior, and climate on mule deer survival

Mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus hemionus ) populations in North America are a valuable economic wildlife resource, with the managed harvest of this species reflecting societal values and recreational opportunities in many parts of the western United States. Managing mule deer populations while allowing for harvest requires an understanding of the species’ population dynamics, including the specific factors associated with population change. We conducted a 7-year (2005–2012) study designed to investigate habitat use and survival of mule deer in eastern Oregon, USA. We used known-fate data for 408 adult female radio-collared mule deer to estimate monthly survival rates and to investigate factors that might affect these rates, including seasonal distribution, temporal effects (seasonal, annual, and trends across season and year), movement behavior, and local weather and regional climatic covariates. Variation in survival rates of female mule deer was best explained by an additive effect of migration behavior, differences in survival during the fall migration period compared to the rest of the annual cycle, and precipitation levels on winter ranges of individual deer. Estimates of annual survival were higher for migrants (0.81–0.82), compared to residents (0.76–0.77). Survival was lower for migrants and residents during fall migration (Oct–Nov) and higher amounts of winter precipitation increased survival of both groups. The results of our study suggest that migrating to potentially higher quality summer foraging areas outweighed the cost of traveling through unfamiliar habitats and energy expenditure associated with migration. © 2018 The Wildlife Society.

Oregon↗

USGS2009

Composition and variation of noise recorded at the Yellowknife Seismic Array, 1991-2007

We analyze seismic noise recorded on the 18 short-period, vertical component seismometers of the Yellowknife Seismic Array (YKA). YKA has an aperture of 23 km and is sited on cratonic lithosphere in an area with low cultural noise. These properties make it ideal for studying natural seismic noise at periods of 1-3 s. We calculated frequency-wave number spectra in this band for over 6,000 time windows that were extracted once per day for 17 years (1991-2007). Slowness analysis reveals a rich variety of seismic phases originating from distinct source regions: R g waves from the Great Slave Lake; L g waves from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic Oceans; and teleseismic P waves from the north Pacific and equatorial mid-Atlantic regions. The surface wave energy is generated along coastlines, while the body wave energy is generated at least in part in deep-water, pelagic regions. Surface waves tend to dominate at the longer periods and, just as in earthquake seismograms, L g is the most prominent arrival. Although the periods we study are slightly shorter than the classic double-frequency microseismic band of 4-10 s, the noise at YKA has clear seasonal behavior that is consistent with the ocean wave climate in the Northern Hemisphere. The temporal variation of most of the noise sources can be well fit using just two Fourier components: yearly and biyearly terms that combine to give a fast rise in microseismic power from mid-June through mid-October, followed by a gradual decline. The exception is the R g energy from the Great Slave Lake, which shows a sharp drop in noise power over a 2-week period in November as the lake freezes. The L g noise from the east has a small but statistically significant positive slope, perhaps implying increased ocean wave activity in the North Atlantic over the last 17 years. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2024

Winter is not coming: Evaluating impacts of changing winter conditions on coregonine reproductive phenology

Fishes in northern latitude lakes are at risk from climate-induced warming because the seasonality in water temperature is degrading, which can change ecosystem properties and the phenology of life-history events. Temperature-dependent embryo development models were developed for a group of cold, stenothermic fishes (Salmonidae Coregoninae) to assess the potential impacts of climate-induced changes in water temperature on cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) from two populations in Lake Superior (Apostle Islands [USA] and Thunder Bay [Canada]) and one in Lake Ontario (USA), vendace ( C. albula ) in Lake Southern Konnevesi (Finland), and European whitefish ( C. lavaretus ) in lakes Southern Konnevesi, Constance (Germany), Geneva (France), and Annecy (France). Water temperatures for each study group were simulated and changes in reproductive phenology across historic (1900–2006) and three future climatic-warming scenarios (2007–2099) were investigated. Models predicted that increases in water temperatures are likely to cause delayed spawning, shorter embryo incubation durations, and earlier larval hatching. Relative changes increased as warming scenarios increased in severity and were higher for littoral as compared to pelagic populations. Our simulations demonstrated that slower cooling in the autumn and (or) more rapid warming in spring can translate into substantial changes in the reproductive phenology of coregonines among our study groups. We expect that the changes in reproductive phenology predicted by our models, in the absence of thermal or behavioral adaptation, will have negative implications for population sustainability.

Apostle Islands, Chaumont Bay, Lake Annecy, Lake C↗

USGS2012

Description of the U.S. Geological Survey Geo Data Portal data integration framework

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an open-standard data integration framework for working efficiently and effectively with large collections of climate and other geoscience data. A web interface accesses catalog datasets to find data services. Data resources can then be rendered for mapping and dataset metadata are derived directly from these web services. Algorithm configuration and information needed to retrieve data for processing are passed to a server where all large-volume data access and manipulation takes place. The data integration strategy described here was implemented by leveraging existing free and open source software. Details of the software used are omitted; rather, emphasis is placed on how open-standard web services and data encodings can be used in an architecture that integrates common geographic and atmospheric data.

IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth O↗

USGS2021

Impacts of climate change on groundwater availability and spring flows: Observations from the highly productive Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System

Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System, located in northeastern California, is home to some of the largest first-order springs in the United States. This work assesses the likely effects of projected climate change on spring flow. Four anticipated climate futures (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5, CNRM rcp 8.5) for California, which predict a range of conditions (generally warming and transitioning from snow to rain with variable amounts of total precipitation), are postulated to affect groundwater recharge primarily by changing evapotranspiration. The linkages between climate variables and spring flow are evaluated using a water balance model that represents the physics of evapotranspiration and recharge, the Basin Characterization Model. Three of the four climate scenarios (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5) project that by the year 2100, groundwater recharge (and consequently decreased spring flow) will decrease by 27%, 21%, and 9%, respectively. The fourth scenario (CNRM rcp 8.5) showed an increase in recharge of 32% due to a significant increase in precipitation (27%). Evapotranspiration increases due to a shift in the type of precipitation and a longer growing season. While the likelihood of each scenario is outside the scope of this work, unless total precipitation increases dramatically in the future, increased temperatures and decreasing precipitation will likely result in reduced spring flows, along with warmer water temperatures in downstream habitats.

California↗

USGS2011

Evolution of natural history information in the 21st century – developing an integrated framework for biological and geographical data

Threats to marine and estuarine species operate over many spatial scales, from nutrient enrichment at the watershed/estuarine scale to invasive species and climate change at regional and global scales. To help address research questions across these scales, we provide here a standardized framework for a biogeographical information system containing queriable biological data that allows extraction of information on multiple species, across a variety of spatial scales based on species distributions, natural history attributes and habitat requirements. As scientists shift from research on localized impacts on individual species to regional and global scale threats, macroecological approaches of studying multiple species over broad geographical areas are becoming increasingly important. The standardized framework described here for capturing and integrating biological and geographical data is a critical first step towards addressing these macroecological questions and we urge organizations capturing biogeoinformatics data to consider adopting this framework.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS1985

Paleoclimate controls on late paleozoic sedimentation and peat formation in the central appalachian basin (U.S.A.)

In the central Appalachian basin, at least two major climate changes affected sedimentation during the late Paleozoic. Stratigraphically, these two changes are indicated by the distribution of coal beds, the variation in coal quality, and the variation in rock lithologies. In latest Mississippian or earliest Pennsylvanian time, the climate changed from dry-seasonal tropical to ever-wet (equable) tropical. The equable climate prevailed into the Middle Pennsylvanian, influencing the morphology and geochemistry in peat-forming environments. Many of the peat deposits, which formed under the equable climate, were probably domed (raised bogs); low concentrations of dissolved solids in peat formation water resulted in low buffering capacity. Organic acids caused acidic (pH < 4), antiseptic conditions that resulted in intense leaching of mineral matter, minimal degradation of organic matter, and low-ash and low-sulfur peat deposits; the resulting coal beds are also low in ash and sulfur. Associated rocks are noncalcareous and consist of sequences of interbedded shale, siltstone, and sandstone including quartz arenite. Another climate change occurred in late Middle Pennsylvanian time when evapopation periodically exceeded rainfall resulting in an increase of both dissolved solids and pH (4 to ∼ 7) in surface and near-surface water. Throughout the remainder of the Pennsylvanian, the surfaces of peat deposits were probably planar (not domed); water in peat-forming and other depositional environments became more nearly neutral. The coal beds derived from these peats are highly variable in both ash and sulfur contents. Drier or more seasonal climates are also indicated by sequences of (1) calcareous sandstone and shale, (2) nonmarine limestone that shows shallow-water and subaerial exposure features, and (3) calcareous paleosols that have caliche characteristics. Our data and observations indicate that physical depositional environment models for the origin of coal do not adequately explain variations in mineral matter content and composition in commercial quality coal beds in the central Appalachian basin. Stratigraphic variation in mineral matter in coal beds, and in syngenetic and early diagenetic minerals in rocks associated with the coal beds, appears to be better explained by changes in geochemical conditions of nonmarine sedimentation. Paleoclimate was a principle control on these geochemical conditions.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2006

Precipitation history and ecosystem response to multidecadal precipitation variability in the Mojave Desert region, 1893-2001

Precipitation varied substantially in the Mojave Desert through the 20th century in a manner broadly similar to the other warm North American deserts. Episodes of drought and prolonged dry conditions (1893-1904, ca. 1942-1975, and 1999-present) alternated with relatively wet periods (1905-ca. 1941 and ca. 1976-1998), probably because of global-scale climate fluctuations. These are the El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation that affects interannual climate and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that evidently causes decadal-scale variability such as prolonged dry and wet episodes. Studies done in the late 20th century demonstrate that precipitation fluctuations affected populations of perennial vegetation, annuals, and small herbivores. Landscape rephotography reveals that several species, particularly creosote bush, increased in size and density during the ca. 1976-1998 wet period. A brief, intense drought from 1989 to 1991 and the ongoing drought caused widespread mortality of certain species; for example, chenopods and perennial grasses suffered up to 100% mortality. Drought pruning, the shedding of above-ground biomass to reduce carbon allocation, increased substantially during drought. Overall, drought had the greatest influence on the Mojave Desert ecosystem. ?? 2006.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2019

Interactive range‐limit theory (iRLT): An extension for predicting range shifts

A central theme of range‐limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high‐latitude/altitude limits, whereas biotic interactions create lower limits. This hypothesis, often credited to Charles Darwin, is a pattern widely assumed to occur in nature. However, abiotic factors can impose constraints on both limits and there is scant evidence to support the latter prediction. Deviations from these predictions may arise from correlations between abiotic factors and biotic interactions, as a lack of data to evaluate the hypothesis, or be an artifact of scale. Combining two tenets of ecology—niche theory and predator–prey theory—provides an opportunity to understand how biotic interactions influence range limits and how this varies by trophic level. We propose an expansion of RLT, interactive RLT (iRLT), to understand the causes of range limits and predict range shifts. Incorporating the main predictions of Darwin's hypothesis, iRLT hypothesizes that abiotic and biotic factors can interact to impact both limits of a species’ range. We summarize current thinking on range limits and perform an integrative review to evaluate support for iRLT and trophic differences along range margins, surveying the mammal community along the boreal‐temperate and forest‐tundra ecotones of North America. Our review suggests that range‐limit dynamics are more nuanced and interactive than classically predicted by RLT. Many (57 of 70) studies indicate that biotic factors can ameliorate harsh climatic conditions along high‐latitude/altitude limits. Conversely, abiotic factors can also mediate biotic interactions along low‐latitude/altitude limits (44 of 68 studies). Both scenarios facilitate range expansion, contraction or stability depending on the strength and the direction of the abiotic or biotic factors. As predicted, biotic interactions most often occurred along lower limits, yet there were trophic differences. Carnivores were only limited by competitive interactions ( n = 25), whereas herbivores were more influenced by predation and parasitism (77%; 55 of 71 studies). We highlight how these differences may create divergent range patterns along lower limits. We conclude by (a) summarizing iRLT; (b) contrasting how our model system and others fit this hypothesis and (c) suggesting future directions for evaluating iRLT.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2012

Sensitivity analysis of lake mass balance in discontinuous permafrost: the example of disappearing Twelvemile Lake, Yukon Flats, Alaska (USA)

Many lakes in northern high latitudes have undergone substantial changes in surface area over the last four decades, possibly as a result of climate warming. In the discontinuous permafrost of Yukon Flats, interior Alaska (USA), these changes have been non-uniform across adjacent watersheds, suggesting local controls on lake water budgets. Mechanisms that could explain the decreasing mass of one lake in Yukon Flats since the early 1980s, Twelvemile Lake, are identified via a scoping analysis that considers plausible changes in snowmelt mass and infiltration, permafrost distribution, and climate warming. Because predicted changes in evaporation (2 cmyr -1 ) are inadequate to explain the observed 17.5 cmyr -1 reduction in mass balance, other mechanisms are required. The most important potential mechanisms are found to involve: (1) changes in shallow, lateral groundwater flow to the lake possibly facilitated by vertical freeze-thaw migration of the permafrost table in gravel; (2) increased loss of lake water as downward groundwater flow through an open talik to a permeable subpermafrost flowpath; and (3) reduced snow meltwater inputs due to decreased snowpack mass and increased infiltration of snowmelt into, and subsequent evaporation from, fine-grained sediment mantling the permafrost-free lake basin.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Managing native and non-native sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) through anthropogenic change: A prospective assessment of key threats and uncertainties

Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) is a species of conservation concern in their native range of the Atlantic coasts of Europe (Near Threatened to Critically Endangered) and North America (Secure to Critically Imperiled), and an invasive species of great economic and ecological concern in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Despite differences in life history strategy (anadromous natives vs adfluvial non-natives), the biology of sea lamprey is sufficiently similar to expect comparable responses to large-scale environmental change. We take a prospective look at the future (50 to 100 years) of sea lamprey management in an era of considerable environmental disturbance, and consider biological responses, management actions, and the future status of populations across the native and non-native ranges. Based on facilitated discussion by a diverse group of international experts, two major but poorly characterized classes of threats to sea lamprey were identified: climate change and socio-political issues. We discuss how climate induced changes affect growth, bioenergetics, and phenology of sea lamprey, and associated effects on control tactics (pesticides and barriers) and conservation. We consider tensions surrounding improving connectivity in the Great Lakes while controlling invasive sea lamprey, and discuss supplements and alternatives to pesticides and their wider effect, as well as the effects of new invasive species. To prevent the extirpation of native sea lamprey populations, or the re-expansion of non-native populations, we conclude with a call for new and ongoing dialogue and collaboration among all sea lamprey biologists and managers across the native and non-native range.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2021

Campfire Conversations at the 2020 annual meeting: Insights & lessons learned from “cuss-and-discuss” rather than “chalk-and-talk”

• The 2020 SRM Annual Meeting piloted “Campfire Conversation,” round-table discussions styled after the World Café approach. • The event attracted 280 attendees and enabled multidirectional knowledge exchange (i.e., “cuss and discuss”), rather than one-way “chalk-and-talk.” Attendees participated in three 20-minute facilitated round-table discussions around three topics they selected from a menu of 13 timely rangeland issues. • Change was a common theme for many Campfire Conversations, including social, climatic, ecological, management, and policy changes. • Participants highlighted a desire for SRM to grow as an organization by enhancing members’ opportunities and resources for multidirectional knowledge exchange among students, scientists, practitioners, and policy-makers; cross-generational mentorship; cross-disciplinary training; diverse ways of knowing; and greater inclusivity and connection to the SRM. • A post-event analysis of the Campfire Conversation event revealed valuable lessons for organizing successful World Café-style sessions at future SRM meetings, including virtual meetings.

The Rangelands Journal↗

USGS2006

Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and -60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2012

Ice sculpture in the Martian outflow channels

Many landforms in Martian outflow channels have characteristics that suggest sculpture by glaciers, ice streams, or ice sheets. Viking Orbiter and terrestrial satellite images were examined at similar resolution to compare features of the Martian outflow channels to features produced by the movement of ice on earth. Many resemblances were found. They include the anastomoses, sinuosities, and U‐shaped cross profiles of valleys; hanging valleys; and linear scour marks on valley walls, grooves and ridges on valley floors, and streamlining of bedrock highs. The question of whether ice could have moved in the Martian environment is investigated. Since gradients on Martian channel floors are extremely low or even reversed, a certain thickness of ice is required to initiate glacial motion. If ice filled the Martian channels to the level of interior plateaus, flow could have occurred, even under present climatic conditions, although warmer climates in the past would have been more favorable. Additionally, if the channel fluids were brines, ice might have been wet based and would have moved readily by slipping over the ground. It is envisioned that springs or small catastrophic outbursts discharged fluids from structural outlets or chaotic terrains. The fluids built icings that may have grown into substantial masses and eventually flowed like glaciers down preexisting valleys. Alternatively, the fluids may have formed rivers or floods that formed ice jams and consolidated into icy masses in places where obstacles blocked their flow. These masses of ice or slush were probably episodic and temporary, but where they occurred within the channels, they may have produced landforms that are characteristic of glacial sculpture on earth.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2013

Recent land-use/land-cover change in the Central California Valley

Open access to Landsat satellite data has enabled annual analyses of modern land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) for the Central California Valley ecoregion between 2005 and 2010. Our annual LULCC estimates capture landscape-level responses to water policy changes, climate, and economic instability. From 2005 to 2010, agriculture in the region fluctuated along with regulatory-driven changes in water allocation as well as persistent drought conditions. Grasslands and shrublands declined, while developed lands increased in former agricultural and grassland/shrublands. Development rates stagnated in 2007, coinciding with the onset of the historic foreclosure crisis in California and the global economic downturn. We utilized annual LULCC estimates to generate interval-based LULCC estimates (2000–2005 and 2005–2010) and extend existing 27 year interval-based land change monitoring through 2010. Resulting change data provides insights into the drivers of landscape change in the Central California Valley ecoregion and represents the first, continuous, 37 year mapping effort of its kind.

California↗