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Global virtual water trade and the hydrological cycle: Patterns, drivers, and socio-environmental impacts

The increasing global demand for farmland products is placing unprecedented pressure on the global agricultural system and its water resources. Many regions of the world, that are affected by a chronic water scarcity relative to their population, strongly depend on the import of agricultural commodities and associated embodied (or virtual) water. The globalization of water through virtual water trade is leading to a displacement of water use and a disconnection between human populations and the water resources they rely on. Despite the recognized importance of these phenomena in reshaping the patterns of water dependence through teleconnections between consumers and producers, their effect on global and regional water resources has just started to be quantified. This review investigates the global spatiotemporal dynamics, drivers, and impacts of virtual water trade through an integrated analysis of surface water, groundwater, and root-zone soil moisture consumption for agricultural production; it evaluates how virtual water flows compare to the major “physical water fluxes” in the Earth System; and provides a new reconceptualization of the hydrologic cycle to account also for the role of water redistribution by the hidden ‘virtual water cycle’.

Environmental Research Letters↗

Mercury bioaccumulation in freshwater fishes of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Chemical contaminants are a threat to the Chesapeake Bay watershed, with mercury (Hg) among the most prevalent causes of impairment. Despite this, large-scale patterns of Hg concentrations, and the potential risks to fish, wildlife, and humans across the watershed, are poorly understood. We compiled fish Hg data from state monitoring programs and recent research efforts to address this knowledge gap and provide a comprehensive assessment of fish Hg concentrations in the watershed’s freshwater habitats. The resulting dataset consisted of nearly 8000 total Hg (THg) concentrations from 600 locations. Across the watershed, fish THg concentrations spanned a 44-fold range, with mean concentrations varying by 2.6- and 8.8-fold among major sub-watersheds and individual 8-digit hydrological units, respectively. Although, mean THg concentrations tended to be moderate, fish frequently exceeded benchmarks for potential adverse health effects, with 45, 48, and 36% of all samples exceeding benchmarks for human, avian piscivore, and fish risk, respectively. Importantly, the percentage of fish exceeding these benchmarks was not uniform among species or locations. The variation in fish THg concentrations among species and sites highlights the roles of waterbody, landscape, and ecological processes in shaping broad patterns in Hg risk across the watershed. We outline an integrated Hg monitoring program that could identify key factors influencing Hg concentrations across the watershed and facilitate the implementation of management strategies to mitigate the risks posed by Hg.

New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virgin↗

International Limnogeology Congress (ILIC6), Reno USA, special issue on new limnogeological research focused on Holocene lake systems

The 6th International Limnogeology Congress (ILIC6) of the International Association of Limnogeology (IAL) was held in Reno, Nevada, USA 15–19 June, 2015. The successful congress brought together a wide variety of academic, government, and industry participants from 20 countries and six continents. The highpoint of the four-day meeting were eight keynote addresses highlighting cutting-edge research in paleolimnology and limnogeology. These addresses were often the focal point of discussions throughout the congress. Among the topics covered in the more than 140 poster presentations included the use of biological proxies to identify paleoenvironmental change due to natural variability and human impact, the evolution of mineral formation in saline lakes, sedimentation deposition processes in Mesoproterozoic lakes, the role of groundwater in lacustrine hydrology, and organic and inorganic contaminant histories in modern lakes.

Conference Paper↗

Reducing sedimentation of depressional wetlands in agricultural landscapes

Depressional wetlands in agricultural landscapes are easily degraded by sediments and contaminants accumulated from their watersheds. Several best management practices can reduce transport of sediments into wetlands, including the establishment of vegetative buffers. We summarize the sources, transport dynamics, and effect of sediments, nutrients, and contaminants that threaten wetlands and the current knowledge of design and usefulness of grass buffers for protecting isolated wetlands. Buffer effectiveness is dependent on several factors, including vegetation structure, buffer width, attributes of the surrounding watershed (i.e., area, vegetative cover, slope and topography, soil type and structure, soil moisture, amount of herbicides and pesticides applied), and intensity and duration of rain events. To reduce dissolved contaminants from runoff, the water must infiltrate the soil where microbes or other processes can break down or sequester contaminants. But increasing infiltration also diminishes total water volume entering a wetland, which presents threats to wetland hydrology in semi-arid regions. Buffer effectiveness may be enhanced significantly by implementing other best management practices (e.g., conservation tillage, balancing input with nutrient requirements for livestock and crops, precision application of chemicals) in the surrounding watershed to diminish soil erosion and associated contaminant runoff. Buffers require regular maintenance to remove sediment build-up and replace damaged or over-mature vegetation. Further research is needed to establish guidelines for effective buffer width and structure, and such efforts should entail a coordinated, regional, multi-scale, multidisciplinary approach to evaluate buffer effectiveness and impacts. Direct measures in "real-world" systems and field validations of buffer-effectiveness models are crucial next steps in evaluating how grass buffers will impact the abiotic and biotic variables attributes that characterize small, isolated wetlands. ?? 2008 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Wetlands↗

Land use change and effects on water quality and ecosystem health in the Lake Tahoe basin, Nevada and California

Human activity in the Lake Tahoe Basin has increased substantially in the past four decades, causing significant impacts on the quality and clarity of the lake's famous deep, clear water. Protection of Lake Tahoe and the surrounding environment has become an important activity in recent years. A variety of agencies, including the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency, Tahoe Research Group of the University of California at Davis, Desert Research Institute of the University and Community College System of Nevada, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and a host of State (both Nevada and California) and local agencies have been monitoring and conducting research in the Basin in order to understand how the lake functions and to what extent humans have affected its landscape and ecosystem processes. In spite of all of these activities, there remains a lack of comprehensive land use change data and analysis for the Basin. A project is underway that unites the land cover mapping expertise of the USGS National Mapping Discipline with the hydrologic expertise of the Water Resources Discipline to assess the impacts of urban growth and land use change in the Lake Tahoe Basin. Three activities are planned over the next 3 years: (1) mapping the current and historic state of the land surface, (2) conducting analysis to document patterns, rates, and trends in urbanization, land use change, and ecosystem health, and (3) assessing the causes and consequences of land use change with regard to water quality and ecosystem health. We hypothesize that changes in the extent of urban growth and the corresponding increases in impervious surfaces and decreases in natural vegetation have resulted in severe impacts on ecosystem health and integrity, riparian zones and water quality over time. We are acting on multiple fronts to test this hypothesis through the quantification of landscape disturbances and impacts.

California, Nevada↗

A 30-year record of surface mass balance (1966-95) and motion and surface altitude (1975-95) at Wolverine Glacier, Alaska

Scientific measurements at Wolverine Glacier, on the Kenai Peninsula in south-central Alaska, began in April 1966. At three long-term sites in the research basin, the measurements included snow depth, snow density, heights of the glacier surface and stratigraphic summer surfaces on stakes, and identification of the surface materials. Calculations of the mass balance of the surface strata-snow, new firn, superimposed ice, and old firn and ice mass at each site were based on these measurements. Calculations of fixed-date annual mass balances for each hydrologic year (October 1 to September 30), as well as net balances and the dates of minimum net balance measured between time-transgressive summer surfaces on the glacier, were made on the basis of the strata balances augmented by air temperature and precipitation recorded in the basin. From 1966 through 1995, the average annual balance at site A (590 meters altitude) was -4.06 meters water equivalent; at site B (1,070 meters altitude), was -0.90 meters water equivalent; and at site C (1,290 meters altitude), was +1.45 meters water equivalent. Geodetic determination of displacements of the mass balance stake, and glacier surface altitudes was added to the data set in 1975 to detect the glacier motion responses to variable climate and mass balance conditions. The average surface speed from 1975 to 1996 was 50.0 meters per year at site A, 83.7 meters per year at site B, and 37.2 meters per year at site C. The average surface altitudes were 594 meters at site A, 1,069 meters at site B, and 1,293 meters at site C; the glacier surface altitudes rose and fell over a range of 19.4 meters at site A, 14.1 meters at site B, and 13.2 meters at site C.

Alaska↗

The coral reef of South Moloka'i, Hawai'i— Portrait of a sediment-threatened fringing reef

Moloka‘i, with the most extensive coral reef in the main Hawaiian Islands, is especially sacred to Hina, the Goddess of the Moon. As Hinaalo, she is the Mother of the Hawaiian people; as Hinapuku‘a, she is the Goddess of Fishermen; and in the form Hina‘opuhalako‘a, she is the Goddess who gave birth to coral, coral reefs, and all spiny marine organisms. Interdependence between the reef’s living resources, the people, and their cosmology was the basis for management of Moloka‘i’s coastal waters for over a thousand years. The ancient residents of Moloka‘i built the greatest concentration of fishponds known anywhere, but their mastery of mariculture, something needed now more than ever, was lost after near genocide from exotic Western diseases. Subsequent destruction of the native vegetation for exotic cattle, goats, pigs, sugar cane, and pineapple caused soil erosion and sedimentation on the reef flat. This masterful volume clearly documents that soil washing into the sea is the major threat to the reef today. Abandoned fishponds, choked with sediment, now act as barriers and mud traps, making damage to corals less than it would otherwise would have been. The role of mud and freshwater from land in preventing coral reef growth, clearly articulated in Charles Darwin’s first book, The Structure and Distribution of Coral Reefs, is the major theme of this book. All around the tropics, coral reefs have died from huge increases in terrestrial sedimentation that resulted from destruction of hillside forests for cash-crop agriculture and pastures in the colonial era, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the islands of the Caribbean and Indo-Pacific. It is obvious that one cannot manage the coastal zone as a unit separate from the watersheds that drain into it. Yet there has been surprisingly little comprehensive scientific study of these impacts. In this landmark volume, U.S. Geological Survey researchers and their colleagues have developed and applied a remarkably integrated approach to the reefs of Moloka‘i, combining geology, oceanography, and biology to provide an in-depth understanding of the processes that have made these reefs grow and that now limit them. They have joined old fashioned natural history of marine animals and plants with study of the geological evolution of the island, hydrology, meteorology, and land-use history, to an arsenal of new methods of remote sensing, including aerial photography, laser ranging, infrared thermal mapping, seismic reflection, in-situ instrumentation to measure chemical parameters of water quality, and direct measurements of the physical driving forces affecting them—such as wave energy, currents, sedimentation, and sediment transport. They provide a level of documentation and insight that has never been available for any reef before. A remarkable feature of this book is that it is aimed at the people of Moloka‘i to inform them of what is happening to their reef and what they might do to preserve their vital resources. The scientific data and interpretations are expressed in unusually clear and comprehensible language, free of the professional jargon that makes most technical publications impenetrable to the public that most needs to know about them, yet without loss of scientific rigor. Here readers will see clearly explained the whole path of soil loss, from the impacts of wild pigs and goats at higher elevations, deforestation of the hills for cattle pasture at lower levels, and denudation of low lands for cash crops. The resulting biological impoverishment has bared the soils, which wash away in flash storms, smothering the inshore reefs, whose growth was already limited because they had grown right up to sea level. The data in this book show that the mud doesn’t get far if it is washed into the sea during a big storm with heavy waves. Afterwards this mud keeps getting stirred up by every succeeding storm, spreading and affecting corals over wider areas until it is finally washed out of the system—and that only happens if there is no more new mud washing onto the reef. I saw this myself a few years ago in Pila‘a Bay on Kaua‘i, where a bulldozed hillside of abandoned sugar cane fields had slumped right on top of a coral reef following exceptional rains. Years later, the algae species were zoned in a way that clearly mapped the distribution of nutrients washed into the bay, most likely from fertilizers bound to the eroded soils. That pattern closely mimics, on a small scale, that shown in Moloka‘i in this volume, where the inner reef is covered with algae, zoned by species in a way that points to land-based sources of nutrients, while the outermost reef slope is still coral dominated, and the deep algae seem to indicate deep-water nutrient upwelling. What of the future? The Hawaiian Islands have been exceptionally fortunate to be spared the worst coral heatstroke death from high temperatures, at least to date. So far, the worst global warming impacts have luckily been small in this region, and the small number of people on Moloka‘i has kept population densities, and sewage pollution, low compared to the more developed islands. Nutrients from years of sugar and pineapple fertilization, and the washing of this soil onto the reefs, show clear influences on the pattern of algae on the reef. Even at very low levels of nutrients, well below that which drives algae to smother and kill coral reefs, more algae is present. Soil erosion control is therefore the key to better management of both nutrients and turbidity on Moloka‘i reefs. To that end land management actions mentioned in this book, such as suppressing wild fires and eliminating wild goats and pigs, could be made even more effective if supplemented by active erosion control using plants whose roots bind the soil effectively in place. Through all of these efforts, Hina and the people of Moloka‘i could be happy again!

Hawaii↗

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Water Resources Research↗

Desert wetlands record hydrologic variability within the Younger Dryas chronozone, Mojave Desert, USA

One of the enduring questions in the field of paleohydrology is how quickly desert wetland ecosystems responded to past episodes of abrupt climate change. Recent investigations in the Las Vegas Valley of southern Nevada have revealed that wetlands expanded and contracted on millennial and sub-millennial timescales in response to changes in climate during the late Quaternary. Here, we evaluate geologic evidence from multiple localities in the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin that suggests the response of wetland systems to climate change is even faster, occurring at centennial, and possibly decadal, timescales. Paleowetland deposits at Dove Springs Wash, Mesquite Springs, and Little Dixie Wash, California, contain evidence of multiple wet and dry cycles in the form of organic-rich black mats, representing periods of past groundwater discharge and wet conditions, interbedded with colluvial, alluvial, and aeolian sediments, each representing dry conditions. Many of these wet-dry cycles date to within the Younger Dryas (YD) chronozone (12.9–11.7 ka), marking the first time intra -YD hydrologic variability has been documented in paleowetland deposits. Our results illustrate that desert wetland ecosystems are exceptionally sensitive to climate change and respond to climatic perturbations on timescales that are relevant to human society.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗

Impact of land use and land cover change on the water balance of a large agricultural watershed: Historical effects and future directions

Over the last century, land use and land cover (LULC) in the United States Corn Belt region shifted from mixed perennial and annual cropping systems to primarily annual crops. Historical LULC change impacted the annual water balance in many Midwestern basins by decreasing annual evapotranspiration (ET) and increasing streamflow and base flow. Recent expansion of the biofuel industry may lead to future LULC changes from increasing corn acreage and potential conversion of the industry to cellulosic bioenergy crops of warm or cool season grasses. In this paper, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate potential impacts from future LULC change on the annual and seasonal water balance of the Raccoon River watershed in west‐central Iowa. Three primary scenarios for LULC change and three scenario variants were evaluated, including an expansion of corn acreage in the watershed and two scenarios involving expansion of land using warm season and cool season grasses for ethanol biofuel. Modeling results were consistent with historical observations. Increased corn production will decrease annual ET and increase water yield and losses of nitrate, phosphorus, and sediment, whereas increasing perennialization will increase ET and decrease water yield and loss of nonpoint source pollutants. However, widespread tile drainage that exists today may limit the extent to which a mixed perennial‐annual land cover would ever resemble pre‐1940s hydrologic conditions. Study results indicate that future LULC change will affect the water balance of the watershed, with consequences largely dependent on the future LULC trajectory.

Water Resources Research↗

Salinity influences on aboveground and belowground net primary productivity in tidal wetlands

Tidal freshwater wetlands are one of the most vulnerable ecosystems to climate change and rising sea levels. However salinification within these systems is poorly understood, therefore, productivity (litterfall, woody biomass, and fine roots) were investigated on three forested tidal wetlands [(1) freshwater, (2) moderately saline, and (3) heavily salt-impacted] and a marsh along the Waccamaw and Turkey Creek in South Carolina. Mean aboveground (litterfall and woody biomass) production on the freshwater, moderately saline, heavily salt-impacted, and marsh, respectively, was 1,061, 492, 79, and 0     g   m − 2   year − 1 versus belowground (fine roots) 860, 490, 620, and 2,128     g   m − 2   year − 1 . Litterfall and woody biomass displayed an inverse relationship with salinity. Shifts in productivity across saline sites is of concern because sea level is predicted to continue rising. Results from the research reported in this paper provide baseline data upon which coupled hydrologic/wetland models can be created to quantify future changes in tidal forest functions.

South Carolina↗

Using UAS capabilities to help identify hummock-hollow formation and fragmentation in critical marsh habitat ( Spartina patens ) for mottled ducks in southeast Texas

For many years, marshes in the coastal areas from Texas to Louisiana have served as critical habitat for Anas fulvigula , the mottled duck. Mottled ducks are a priority species in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast area and have been affected by critical habitat reduction. In recent years, mottled duck habitats have been threatened by natural and anthropogenic changes including urbanization, flooding, saltwater intrusion, and hydrologic alterations. These impacts are affecting the quality of habitat that is essential for the mottled duck nesting, feeding, and livelihood. Cumulative and synergistic effects of contamination and invasive species encroachment have also caused mottled duck habitat to be considered as some of the most critically endangered habitats in the United States. To help understand the environmental conditions that characterize the coastal landscape, U.S. Geological Survey researchers used an unmanned aerial system (UAS) to acquire high-resolution imagery to document current land and water spatial configuration and wetland health at McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge, Texas.

Texas↗

USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species database with a focus on the introduced fishes of the lower Tennessee and Cumberland drainages

The Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) database (http://nas.er.usgs.gov) functions as a national repository and clearinghouse for occurrence data for introduced species within the United States. Included is locality information on over 1,100 species of vertebrates, invertebrates, and vascular plants introduced as early as 1850. Taxa include foreign (exotic) species and species native to North America that have been transported outside of their natural range. Locality data are obtained from published and unpublished literature, state, federal and local monitoring programs, museum accessions, on-line databases, websites, professional communications and on-line reporting forms. The NAS web site provides immediate access to new occurrence records through a real-time interface with the NAS database. Visitors to the web site are presented with a set of pre-defined queries that generate lists of species according to state or hydrologic basin of interest. Fact sheets, distribution maps, and information on new occurrences are updated as new records and information become available. The NAS database allows resource managers to learn of new introductions reported in their region or nearby regions, improving response time. Conversely, managers are encouraged to report their observations of new occurrences to the NAS database so information can be disseminated to other managers, researchers, and the public. In May 2004, the NAS database incorporated an Alert System to notify registered users of new introductions as part of a national early detection/rapid response system. Users can register to receive alerts based on geographic or taxonomic criteria. The NAS database was used to identify 23 fish species introduced into the lower Tennessee and Cumberland drainages. Most of these are sport fish stocked to support fisheries, but the list also includes accidental and illegal introductions such as Asian Carps, clupeids, various species popular in the aquarium trade, and Atlantic Needlefish ( Strongylura marina ) that was introduced via the newly-constructed Tennessee-Tombigbee Canal.

Cumberland River;Tennessee River↗

Wetland hydrodynamics and long-term use of spring migration areas by lesser scaup in eastern South Dakota

Lesser scaup ( Aythya affinis [Eyton]) populations remain below their long-term average despite improved habitat conditions along spring migration routes and at breeding grounds. Scaup are typically associated with large, semipermanent wetlands and exhibit regional preferences along migration routes. Identifying consistently used habitats for conservation and restoration is complicated by irregular wetland availability due to the dynamic climate. We modeled long-term wetland use by lesser scaup in eastern South Dakota based on surveys conducted during below-average (1987-1989) and above-average (1993-2002) water condition years. Wetland permanence, longitude, and physiographic region were all significant determinants of use (P<0.01). Long-term use was best described by a quadratic equation including wetland surface area variability, an index of wetland hydrodynamics that is linked to productivity, biodiversity, and value to waterfowl. Contrary to previous findings, our study shows that over the long term, lesser scaup are more than twice as likely to use permanent wetlands as they are semipermanent wetlands. The northern region of South Dakota's Prairie Coteau, which holds the highest density of hydrologically dynamic permanent wetlands, should be considered an area of conservation concern for lesser scaup. The criteria we identified may be used to identify important lesser scaup habitats in other regions of the Prairie Pothole Region.

South Dakota↗

What did they just say? Building a Rosetta stone for geoscience and machine learning

Modern advancements in science and engineering are built upon multidisciplinary projects that bring experts together from different fields. Within their respective disciplines, researchers rely on precise terminology for specific ideas, principles, methods, and theories. Hence, the potential for miscommunication is substantial, especially when common words have been adopted by one (or both) group(s) to represent very specific, precise, but, perhaps, different concepts. Under the best circumstances, misunderstanding key terms will lead toward a breakdown of efficiency. Under less optimal conditions, miscommunication will sow frustration, lead to errors, and inhibit scientific breakthroughs. Here, our research group of geoscientists and machine learning experts presents a process to help geoscientists understand the fundamentals of supervised learning by describing the general workflow (i.e., a conceptual pipeline) for supervised learning that must be understood by all the parties involved in a geoscience-machine learning endeavor. Terms critical for machine learning are introduced, defined, and used within the context of an overly simplified mock hydrological study to illustrate their appropriate usage, and then used again in the context of a published geothermal-machine learning study. These key terms are divided into two groups, which are 1) essential to the field of machine learning but are predominantly absent in geoscience or 2) homonyms (i.e., words with the same spelling or pronunciation but with different meanings) between the fields. Lastly, we discuss a few other important homonyms that were not introduced in the general workflow but arise regularly in machine learning applications

Conference Paper↗

Effects of flood control alternatives on fish and wildlife resources of the Malheur-Harney lakes basin

Malheur Lake is the largest freshwater marsh in the western contiguous United States and is one of the main management units of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in southeastern Oregon. The marsh provides excellent waterfowl production habitat as well as vital migration habitats for birds in the Pacific flyway. Water shortages have typically been a problem in this semiarid area; however, record snowfalls and cool summers have recently caused Malheur Lake to rise to its highest level in recorded history. This has resulted in the loss of approximately 57,000 acres of important wildlife habitat as well as extensive flooding of local ranches, roads, and railroad lines. Because of the importance of the Refuge, any water management plan for the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin needs to consider the impact of management alternatives on the hydrology of Malheur Lake. The facilitated modeling workshop described in this report was conducted January 14-18, 1985, under the joint sponsorship of the Portland Ecological Services Field Office and the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Region 1, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). The Portland Field Office is responsible for FWS reporting requirements on Federal water resource projects while the Refuge staff has management responsibility for much of the land affected by high water levels in the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin. The primary objective of the workshop was to begin gathering and analyzing information concerning potential fish and wildlife impacts, needs, and opportunities associated with proposed U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) flood control alternatives for Malheur Lake. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a computer model that would simulate the hydrologic effects of the various alternatives and any concommitant changes in vegetation communities and wildlife use patterns. The simulation model is composed of three connected submodels. The Hydrology submodel calculates changes in lake volume, elevation, and surface area, as well as changes in water quality, that result from the proposed water management projects (upstream storage, upstream diversions, drainage canals) and the no action alternative. The Vegetation submodel determines associated changes in the areal extent of wetland and upland vegetation communities. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates indices of abundance or habitat suitability for colonial nesting birds (great egret, double-crested cormorant, white-faced ibis), greater sandhill crane, diving ducks, tundra swan, dabbling ducks, and Canada goose based on hydrologic and vegetation conditions. The model represents the Malheur-Harney Lakes Basin, but provides water quantity and quality indicators associated with additional flows that might occur in the Malheur River Basin. Several management scenarios, representing various flood control alternatives and assumptions concerning future runoff, were run to analyze model behavior. Scenario results are not intended as an analysis of all potential management actions or assumptions concerning future runoff. Rather, they demonstrate the type of analysis that could be conducted if the model was sufficiently refined and tested. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. This workshop initiated interaction among the primary State and Federal resource and development agencies in a nonadversarial forum. The exchange of information and expertise among agencies provided the FWS with the best information currently available for use in the Planning Aid Letter it will develop at the Reconnaissance state of the COE study. If the COE subsequently initiates a Feasability Study, this information will be refined further and will aid the FWS in preparing its Coordination Act Report on any flood control alternative proposed by the COE. The model building and testing process also helped identify model limitations and more general information needs that should be evaluated for further study prior to preparation of an FWS Coordination Act Report. Major needs associated with the Hydrology submodel include a more detailed representation of hydrologic units (separately consider Harney Lake, Mud Lake, and Malheur Lake or the three hydrological units within Malheur Lake, rather than a combined lake system) and explicitly representation of groundwater storage and discharge in water budget calculations. A better representation of the hydrological units will require more detailed topographic data for the basin, capacity-elevation and elevation-surface area curves for each unit, and better water flow data between the units. Additional water quality parameters and constraints on proposed canal operation due to conditions in the Malheur River might also be added. Key Vegetation submodel needs include fine-tuning existing vegetation relationships in the model and adding relationships to address the influence of historical conditions on vegetation development, effects of very rapid changes in lake level, effects of wildlife populations (e.g., carp, muskrat), responses of vegetation to habitat management actions (e.g, haying, grazing, burning), and better representation of sago pondweed dynamics. A complementary geographic information system might also be developed for spatial analyses. Major needs that should be evaluated for the Wildlife submodel include addition of other wildlife species that have important effects on habitat on the Refuge (e.g., carp, muskrat) and consideration of additional life-cycle requisites and controlling variable for species presently in the model. Some of these limitations could perhaps be overcome if historical data on habitat conditions were developed to use with historical data on wildlife populations.

Oregon↗

HESS Opinions: Repeatable research: what hydrologistscan learn from the Duke cancer research scandal

In the past decade, difficulties encountered in reproducing the results of a cancer study at Duke University resulted in a scandal and an investigation which concluded that tools used for data management, analysis, and modeling were inappropriate for the documentation of the study, let alone the reproduction of the results. New protocols were developed which require that data analysis and modeling be carried out with scripts that can be used to reproduce the results and are a record of all decisions and interpretations made during an analysis or a modeling effort. In the hydrological sciences, we face similar challenges and need to develop similar standards for transparency and repeatability of results. A promising route is to start making use of open-source languages (such as R and Python) to write scripts and to use collaborative coding environments (such as Git) to share our codes for inspection and use by the hydrological community. An important side-benefit to adopting such protocols is consistency and efficiency among collaborators.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

Rapid response, monitoring, and mitigation of induced seismicity near Greeley, Colorado

On 1 June 2014 (03:35 UTC), an M w 3.2 earthquake occurred in Weld County, Colorado, a historically aseismic area of the Denver–Julesburg basin. Weld County is a prominent area of oil and gas development, including many high‐rate class II wastewater injection wells. In the days following the earthquake, the University of Colorado, with support from the U.S. Geological Survey and Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology–Portable Array Seismic Studies of the Continental Lithosphere, rapidly deployed six seismic stations to characterize the seismicity associated with the 1 June earthquake (the Greeley sequence) and to investigate its possible connection to wastewater disposal. The spatial and temporal proximity of earthquakes to a high‐rate wastewater disposal well strongly suggests these earthquakes were induced. Scientific communication between the university, state agencies, and the energy industry led to rapid mitigation strategies to reduce the occurrence of further earthquakes. Mitigation efforts included implementing a temporary moratorium on injection at the well, cementing the bottom portion of the disposal well to minimize hydrologic connectivity between the disposal formation and the underlying crystalline basement, and subsequently allowing injection to resume at lower rates. Following the resumption of wastewater disposal, microseismicity was closely monitored for both increases in earthquake rate and magnitude. Following mitigation efforts, between 13 August 2014 and 29 December 2015, no earthquakes larger than M 1.5 occurred near the Greeley sequence. This study demonstrates that a detailed and rapid characterization of a seismic sequence in space and time relative to disposal, combined with collaboration and communication between scientists, regulators, and industry, can lead to objective and actionable mitigation efforts that potentially reduced the rate of earthquakes and the possible generation of larger earthquakes.

Colorado↗