USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Final Report”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 901 records · Page 50Linked to original sources

Estimation and comparison of 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood flows at Federal Emergency Management Agency flood insurance study flow locations across Pennsylvania

Flood-flow estimates were computed at over 5,000 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood insurance study (FIS) flow locations across Pennsylvania for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood event (1-percent AEP). Depending on a point of interest’s proximity to a streamgage, weighting techniques may be applied to obtain flood-flow estimates for ungaged flow locations using observed peak-flow data from a nearby streamgage. Following the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) published guidance, stream segments were identified where the drainage-area ratio method could be leveraged. Using updated regional regression equations and recently published flood-flow estimates at USGS streamgage locations following USGS Bulletin 17C guidelines, weighted and transferred flood flows were computed, where appropriate. For locations not applicable for the drainage-area ratio method, regression equations were used to compute flood-flow estimates. These flood-flow estimates were then compared to FEMA FIS 1-percent AEP flood-flow estimates. Percentage-difference values were computed for 3,599 FIS flow locations determined to be suitable for analysis, finding that USGS-derived flood-flow estimates were consistently lower than FEMA FIS flood-flow estimates with a statewide median percentage difference of −10.1 percent. The dataset was normally distributed with a standard deviation of 45.7 percent. Allegheny County was found to have 74 FIS flow locations with percentage-difference values greater than or equal to 67 percent or less than or equal to −67 percent. The flood-flow region in which Allegheny County is contained, Region 2, had a median percentage-difference value of −39 percent. Although removed from the final analysis, flow locations with drainage-area values above the recommended threshold for regression-based estimation (about 1,000 square miles [mi 2 ]) were observed to have consistently higher percentage-difference values; a reminder of the limitations of use for regression-based flood-flow estimates. This report, the comparisons within, and a companion data release are intended to serve as tools to FEMA in assisting with the ongoing assessment of FIS flow locations across Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania↗

Evaluating temperature regimes for protection of Smallmouth Bass

The success of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) is affected by temperature regimes. Concepts are presented for evaluating the suitability of alternative temperature regimes through experimentally derived data, including ultimate incipient lethal temperatures and maximum weekly average, short-term maximum, and final preferendum temperatures. Also, concepts are described for basing evaluations on temperature tolerances for periods including spawning, egg and larval incubation, growth, and winter survival in the first year of life.

Report↗

Drought prediction and water availability: A report on the 2022 ​​USGS-NIDIS National Listening Session Series

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) conducted a series of four Listening Sessions in 2022 – each with a different application or topical focus – to seek input on priorities and needs related to predicting water availability changes under drought conditions at national and regional scales. This input was gathered to help inform the USGS Drought Program, regional and national drought efforts at NIDIS, and other national drought efforts. The series started with a February 2022 kick-off that introduced the series of Listening Sessions being held from March through September 2022. This kickoff also provided an overview of the USGS Drought Program’s work to characterize hydrological (e.g., streamflow and groundwater) drought, drought variability, drivers, and trends over the past century. Participants in these Listening Sessions included diverse stakeholder representation and perspectives. The first of the four Listening Sessions focused on streamflow (March 3, 2022), and included a short introduction to the USGS national streamflow drought research, the properties of a national drought prediction system, as well as presentations by other agencies on different drought prediction and forecasting efforts. The second session focused on groundwater (May 5, 2022), and included presentations on groundwater drought, sustainable groundwater management, and improving our understanding of soil moisture, groundwater, and surface water drought. The third session focused on water use (July 14, 2022), and included a discussion of the different drought types, as well as an introduction to several key projects, including the USGS Upper Colorado River Basin Study, the Ogallala Data Directory project, and a multi-agency drought prediction partnership in Oklahoma. The fourth and final Listening Session focused on water availability prediction for ecosystems (September 8, 2022), and included presentations on the development of a national capacity for eco-hydrological and drought science, building climate resilience, and actionable ecodrought resources.

Report↗

Estimating annual Ceratonova shasta mortality rates in juvenile Scott and Shasta River coho salmon that enter the Klamath River mainstem

The impacts of Ceratonova shasta on Klamath River salmonids have been the focus of tremendous research and monitoring over the past decade. Knowledge gained from the various studies has resulted in a growing suite of decision support tools that can be used to predict the prevalence of infection and mortality that can be expected from varying exposure concentrations to C. shasta waterborne spores, exposure durations, and water temperatures. More recent efforts have shown that when coupled with estimates of abundance and temporal migration timing, these tools can be used to predict population-level rates of annual mortality due to ceratomyxosis. In this report, we apply those tools to estimate annual mortality rates of juvenile Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch originating from the Scott and Shasta rivers that result from exposure to C. shasta in the mainstem Klamath River. Additionally, we simulate how a water management flow regime targeted to reduce disease risk may translate into differing estimates of mortality rates. In general, we found large variation among annual mortality rate estimates, ranging from 0% to 68% across both rivers and across all years considered in this investigation. Further, we estimate that fish from the Shasta River experienced higher mortality rates owning to their prolonged exposure history. Finally, our simulations suggest that the flow regime targeting reduced disease risk could be effective at reducing annual Coho Salmon mortality rate estimates, with the extent of the estimated reductions related to the timing of the onset of measurable in-river waterborne spore concentrations and the overlap with the Klamath River residence for each source population.

California, Oregon↗

Map showing slope movements in the Oak Forest Quadrangle, Greene County, southwestern Pennsylvania

This map is the first example in the eastern United States of a 1:24,000-scale 7.5– minute quadrangle map that identifies areas with slope—stability problems in detail. Such a map enables the user to make a rapid evaluation of the potential for mass movement. Furthermore, detailed slope movement inventory of this type can serve as a framework for statistical analyses of several factors that cause slope failures, such as the effects of bedrock lithology, soil and slope characteristics, and precipitation. Planners, engineers, soil scientists, geologists, and elected officials should find the map useful in the assessment of slope hazards and planning for future land use. Final evaluation of any site within the quadrangle should be based on an examination by a soils engineer or an engineering geologist. Field investigations in the springs of 1981 and 1982 and the fall of 1981 involved nearly 60 days of traverses. The foot traverses were supplemented by the interpretation of the land surface on vertical black-and-white aerial photography flown in January and February of 1973 at a scale of nearly 1:24,000. Earlier aerial photography flown in June and July 1939 at a scale of 1:20,000 and more recent but significantly smaller scale photography (1:80,000) flown in June 1977 supplied additional documentation. More than 1,200 active or recently active and 900 older slope movements were identified. The geologic map of the Oak Forest quadrangle (Roen, 1972) is one of several geologic maps at a scale of 1:24,000 in eastern and central Greene County. Stone (1932) wrote an earlier report of the geology and mineral resources of Greene County. A series of reconnaissance landslide maps at 1:24,000 scale based mainly on aerial photographic interpretation included Greene and adjacent counties (Hackman and Thomas, 1978). Selection of the Oak Forest quadrangle for a more comprehensive study of the slope movements was based on the existence of a recent geologic map (Roen, 1972), sizeable tracts of both forested and non-forested land, nearby precipitation record stations, a large number of pipelines which could offer pertinent data, and good accessibility of terrain from secondary roads. Finally, Hackman and Thomas (1978) showed that the area was representative of any quadrangle in the northern part of the Dunkard basin in its distribution and density of slope movements. The quadrangle is located about 65 km southwest of Pittsburgh, Penn. (fig. 1). Three distinct drainage systems (north, east, and south trending) are represented within the quadrangle (fig. 2).

Pennsylvania↗

A reassessment of Chao2 estimates for population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee (YES) asked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) to re-assess a technique used in annual population estimation and trend monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). This technique is referred to as the Chao2 approach and estimates the number of females with cubs-of-the-year (hereafter, females with cubs) and, in association with other demographic data, is used by the IGBST to produce annual population estimates. Females with cubs are an easily recognizable population segment, and trends for this reproductive segment of the population are assumed to be representative of trend for the entire population. The overarching objective of the analyses presented in this report was to provide a more accurate representation of the GYE grizzly bear population using the current methodologies in place. Specifically, we addressed two limitations of the current Chao2 approach: 1) underestimation bias associated with a distance criterion used to differentiate annual sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals and 2) limitations of the model-averaging approach to effectively distinguish among potential future population trajectories (decline, stability, and growth). The first issue addressed in this report is the underestimation bias associated with the rule set that Knight et al. (1995) developed to differentiate sightings of females with cubs into unique individuals (i.e., unique family groups). The rule set was originally designed to be conservative by reducing the risk of identifying more females with cubs than actually existed, primarily through use of a distance criterion of 30 km to separate sightings of unique females. This approach resulted in an underestimation bias, and previous research demonstrated that this bias increases with increasing number of females with cubs. Using location data from radio-marked females with cubs, we evaluated alternative distance criteria by simulating scenarios with varying numbers of true females with cubs and sightings. Findings from these analyses demonstrate that bias in estimates of females with cubs can be substantially reduced by changing the 30-km distance criterion in the rule set to 16 km, which produced relatively unbiased estimates. Findings also indicate, however, the importance of adaptability with regard to the distance criteria because of the complex relationships and biases among the various parameters involved in estimation of unique females with cubs. The total number of annual sightings and the true number of females with cubs play particularly important roles. Whereas these analyses remind us that there is no perfect approach to estimating the number of females with cubs from sightings under various scenarios, they provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. The second issue we were tasked to investigate was the potential for improvement of the technique referred to as model-averaging, which serves to smooth relatively high variation in annual estimates. This technique was chosen by YES as the basis for monitoring the Yellowstone grizzly bear population, as described in the 2016 Conservation Strategy. This choice was made in part because the technique has been well documented and population estimates derived from counts of females with cubs are conservative. Using simulations of population trends, we demonstrate why the model-averaging technique currently used cannot distinguish between plausible future trend scenarios. As a suitable alternative to model averaging, we propose the use of generalized additive models (GAMs). Using a suite of simulated trend dynamics relevant to management, we demonstrate GAM performance for tracking trends in females with cubs within the context of the annual monitoring program. We demonstrate the ability to not only document directional changes in population trend but also patterns of stabilization or resiliency after such changes. Furthermore, the proposed monitoring framework provides objective measures useful for early detection of directional changes in trend. The new framework is flexible, allowing retrospective analysis of Chao2-based estimates and future applications to time series of other population metrics, such as vital rates. The aforementioned updates provide us with new tools to determine when and how to adapt the monitoring program. Within the context of current monitoring protocols and effort, and considering the full suite of simulations presented in this report and previous studies, the IGBST plans to incorporate the following changes to the population monitoring protocol: 1) modify the distance criterion, starting with 16 km under current sampling conditions and 2) revise the population monitoring framework using GAMs as the basis for smoothing of annual estimates and detecting trends and changes in trend. Implementation of the 16-km distance criterion combined with use of GAM techniques would affect some of the population metrics (e.g., annual population size and uncertainty, population trend, mortality rates) used to inform management responses. A primary consideration is that the 16-km distance criterion results in total population estimates derived from the Chao2 estimates that are greater than those we have reported in the past. This increase is due to a change in the implementation of the technique and more accurately represents the number of females with cubs in the GYE grizzly bear population. Additionally, interpretation of retrospective trend patterns may change due to the combination of a different distance criterion and enhanced trend monitoring based on the GAM approach we present here. Implementation will require relatively minor changes in the monitoring protocols described in Appendices B and C of the 2016 Conservation Strategy. Finally, we note that the IGBST has ongoing investigations into the merits of an Integrated Population Model (IPM), for which annual Chao2-based estimates are important input data. The IGBST plans to continue those investigations using the 16-km distance criterion to derive Chao2 estimates.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Saturn's icy satellites investigated by Cassini-VIMS. I. Full-disk properties: 350-5100 nm reflectance spectra and phase curves

Saturn's icy satellites are among the main scientific objectives of the Cassini-VIMS (Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer) experiment. This paper contains a first systematic and comparative analysis of the full-disk spectral properties of Dione, Enceladus, Epimetheus, Hyperion, Iapetus, Mimas, Phoebe, Rhea and Tethys as observed by VIMS from July 2004 to June 2005. The disk integrated properties (350-5100 nm reflectance spectra and phase curves at 550-2232 nm) and images of satellites are reported and discussed in detail together with the observed geometry. In general, the spectra in the visible spectral range are almost featureless and can be classified according to the spectral slopes: from the bluish Enceladus and Phoebe to the redder Iapetus, Hyperion and Epimetheus. In the 1000-1300 nm range the spectra of Enceladus, Tethys, Mimas and Rhea are characterized by a negative slope, consistent with a surface largely dominated by water ice, while the spectra of Iapetus, Hyperion and Phoebe show a considerable reddening pointing out the relevant role played by darkening materials present on the surface. In between these two classes are Dione and Epimetheus, which have a flat spectrum in this range. The main absorption bands identified in the infrared are the 1520, 2020, 3000 nm H2O/OH bands (for all satellites), although Iapetus dark terrains show mostly a deep 3000 nm band while the 1520 and 2020 nm bands are very faint. In this spectral range, the Iapetus spectrum is characterized by a strong reddening. The CO2 band at 4260 nm and the Fresnel ice peak around 3100 nm are evident only on Hyperion, Phoebe and Iapetus. The phase curves at 550 and at 2232 nm are reported for all the available observations in the 0??-144?? range; Rhea shows an opposition surge at visible wavelengths in the 0.5??-1.17?? interval. The improvement on the retrieval of the full-disk reflectance spectra can be appreciated by a direct comparison with ground-based telescopic data available from literature. Finally, data processing strategies and recent upgrades introduced in the VIMS-V calibration pipeline (flat-field and destriping-despiking algorithm) are discussed in appendices. ?? 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Icarus↗

Microgravity change during the 2008-2018 Kı̄lauea summit eruption: Nearly a decade of subsurface mass accumulation

Results from nine microgravity campaigns from Kı̄lauea, Hawaiʻi, spanning most of the volcano's 2008–2018 summit eruption, indicate persistent mass accumulation at shallow levels. A weighted least squares approach is used to recover microgravity results from a network of benchmarks around Kı̄lauea's summit, eliminate instrumental drift, and restore suspected data tares. A total mass of 1.9 × 10 11 kg was determined from these microgravity campaigns to have accumulated below Kı̄lauea Caldera during 2009–2015 at an estimated depth of 1.3 km below sea level. Only a fraction of this mass is reflected in surface deformation, and this is consistent with previously reported discrepancies between subsurface mass accumulation and observed surface deformation. The discrepancy, amongst other independent evidence from gas emissions, seismicity, and continuous gravimetry, indicate densification of magma in the reservoirs below the volcano summit. This densification may have been driven by degassing through the summit vent. It is hypothesized that during the final years of the summit eruption, magma densification resulted in a buildup of pressure in the reservoirs that may have contributed to the lower East Rift Zone outbreak of 2018. The observed mass accumulation beneath Kı̄lauea could not have been detected through other techniques and illustrates the importance of microgravity measurements in volcano monitoring.

Hawai'i↗

Climate and reproduction of grizzly bears in Yellowstone National Park

Controversy surrounds the conflicts between the requirements of human safety and the preservation of grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) in western North America. It has been difficult to separate the effect of factors such as the closure of garbage dumps from that of the climate. It has also proved difficult to relate climatic data to changes in the populations of large mammals. I report here a correlation of climatic change with fluctuations in the sizes of litters of grizzly bears born in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, during 1958–1976. The decrease in litter sizes observed since the closure of garbage dumps seems to be largely a consequence of unfavourable weather during the periods of the final fattening of the mother, winter sleep, birth, lactation and early spring foraging. This study represents one of the few times that the effects of climate have been demonstrated for large omnivorous or carnivorous mammals.

Wyoming↗

Management-driven science synthesis: An evaluation of Everglades restoration trajectories

The Synthesis of Everglades Restoration andEcosystem Services (SERES) Project was funded in 2010 by the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI) through the Critical Ecosystem Studies Initiative (CESI) and established to synthesize the ever-growing body of Everglades scientific information with the goal of addressing topics that have hampered restoration since the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) was passed in 2000. A distinguishing characteristic of this synthesis effort was that the target end-user was a management/ decision-maker audience. Specifically, the aim was to address the questions of the water managers and other decision leaders in a way that would illuminate and inform but not constrain or specify decisions. Since its inception, the SERES Project has been managed by the Everglades Foundation; however, a core group of scientifc experts from agencies, academic institutions, and the private sector have contributed to the project (see list on page 4). We began the project by interviewing key officials, including resource managers, decision-makers, and heads of agencies and environmental organizations. The objective of these interviews was to establish the Key Science Management Questions that needed to be addressed in order to advance restoration of the Everglades. The resulting questions led to the organization of project teams focused on Hydrology, Water Quality, Soils, Trophic Dynamics, and Landscape Pattern. In order to establish the technical basis for the project, we conducted in depth reviews of the recent scientifc literature, evaluation tools and models, and available data in each of these core areas. Finally, we developed a suite of restoration options that would aid us in addressing the Key Questions and evaluated their relative performance from hydrological, ecological, and economic perspectives. General fndings of the SERES Project are described in subsequent sections, and technical reviews and results of analyses supporting this document are available in reports on the project website.

Florida↗

Finalization of the Confocal Laser Scanning Microscopy (CLSM) working group

A working group in Commission II to investigate applications of confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) for organic petrology investigations has finalized with publication of the manuscript “Characterization of bituminite in Kimmeridge Clay by confocal laser scanning and atomic force microscopy” in the International Journal of Coal Geology. The manuscript is available via Open Access from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coal.2022.103927 and also from the Commission II working group (WG) webpage https://www.iccop.org/workinggroup/confocal-laser-scanning-microscopy-clsm/. A report detailing the full history and results from the WG also is available from the Commission II WG webpage. The working group investigated the application of CLSM to an organic-rich (44 wt.% TOC), thermally immature sample (VRo 0.42%) of the Kimmeridge Clay Formation. CLSM imaging and spectroscopy and atomic force microscopy (AFM) were used to characterize bituminite.

ICCP News↗

Sediment-hosted zinc-lead deposits of the world— Database and grade and tonnage models

This report provides information on sediment-hosted zinc-lead mineral deposits based on the geologic settings that are observed on regional geologic maps. The foundation of mineral-deposit models is information about known deposits. The purpose of this publication is to make this kind of information available in digital form for sediment-hosted zinc-lead deposits. Mineral-deposit models are important in exploration planning and quantitative resource assessments: Grades and tonnages among deposit types are significantly different, and many types occur in different geologic settings that can be identified from geologic maps. Mineral-deposit models are the keystone in combining the diverse geoscience information on geology, mineral occurrences, geophysics, and geochemistry used in resource assessments and mineral exploration. Too few thoroughly explored mineral deposits are available in most local areas for reliable identification of the important geoscience variables, or for robust estimation of undiscovered deposits - thus, we need mineral-deposit models. Globally based deposit models allow recognition of important features because the global models demonstrate how common different features are. Well-designed and -constructed deposit models allow geologists to know from observed geologic environments the possible mineral-deposit types that might exist, and allow economists to determine the possible economic viability of these resources in the region. Thus, mineral-deposit models play the central role in transforming geoscience information to a form useful to policy makers. This publication contains a computer file of information on sediment-hosted zinc-lead deposits from around the world. It also presents new grade and tonnage models for nine types of these deposits and a file allowing locations of all deposits to be plotted in Google Earth. The data are presented in FileMaker Pro, Excel and text files to make the information available to as many as possible. The value of this information and any derived analyses depends critically on the consistent manner of data gathering. For this reason, we first discuss the rules applied in this compilation. Next, the fields of the data file are considered. Finally, we provide new grade and tonnage models that are, for the most part, based on a classification of deposits using observable geologic units from regional-scaled maps.

Open-File Report↗

Results of quality-control sampling of water, bed sediment, and tissue in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages study unit of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program

This report contains the quality control results of the Western Lake Michigan Drainages study unit of the National Water Quality Assessment Program. Quality control samples were collected in the same manner and contemporaneously with environmental samples during the first highintensity study phase in the unit (1992 through 1995) and amounted to approximately 15 percent of all samples collected. The accuracy and precision of hundreds of chemical analyses of surface and ground-water, bed sediment, and tissue was determined through the collection and analysis of field blanks, field replicates and splits, matrix spikes, and surrogates. Despite the several detections of analytes in the field blanks, the concentrations of most constituents in the environmental samples will likely be an order of magnitude or higher than those in the blanks. However, frequent detections, and high concentrations, of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in several surface and ground-water blanks are probably significant with respect to commonly measured environmental concentrations, and the environmental data will have to be qualified accordingly. The precision of sampling of water on a percent basis, as determined from replicates and splits, was generally proportional to the concentration of the constituents, with constituents present in relatively high concentrations generally having less sampling variability than those with relatively low concentrations. In general, analytes with relatively high variability between replicates were present at concentrations near the reporting limit or were associated with relatively small absolute concentration differences, or both. Precision of replicates compared to that for splits in bed sediment samples was similar, thus eliminating sampling as a major source of variability in analyte concentrations. In the case the phthalates in bed sediment, contamination in either the field or laboratory could have caused the relatively large variability between replicate samples and between split samples.Variability of analyte concentrations in tissue samples was relatively low, being 29 percent or less for all constituents. Recoveries of most laboratory schedule 2001/2010 pesticide spike compounds in surfacewater samples were reasonably good. Low intrinsic method recovery resulted in relatively low recovery forp,p'-DDE, metribuzin, and propargite. In the case of propargite, decomposition with the environmental sample matrices was also indicated. Recoveries of two compounds, cyanazine and thiobencarb, might have been biased high due to interferences. The one laboratory schedule 2050/2051 field matrix pesticide spike indicated numerous operational problems with this method that biased recoveries either low or high. Recoveries of pesticides from both pesticide schedules in field spikes of ground-water samples generally were similar to those of field matrix spikes of surface- water samples. High maximum recoveries were noted for tebuthiuron, disulfoton, DCPA, and permethrin, which indicates the possible presence of interferents in the matrices for these compounds. Problems in the recoveries of pesticides on schedule 2050/2051 from ground-water samples generally were the same as those for surfacewater samples. Recoveries of VOCs in field matrix spikes were reasonable when consideration was given for the use of the micropipettor that delivered only about 80 percent on average of the nominal mass of spiked analytes. Finally, the recoveries of most surrogate compounds in surface and ground-water samples were reasonable. Problems in sample handling (for example, spillage) were likely not the cause of any of the low recoveries of spiked compounds.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Estimating flood discharges at selected annual exceedance probabilities for unregulated, rural streams in Vermont, 2023

This report provides estimates of flood discharge at selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) for streamgages in and adjacent to Vermont and equations for estimating flood discharges at AEPs of 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent (recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years, respectively) for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in Vermont with drainage areas between 0.47 and 851 square miles. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 156 streamgages. Flood-frequency analyses were completed using data through the 2023 water year. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations are drainage area, percentage of wetland area, and basin-wide mean of the average annual precipitation. The average standard errors of prediction used to estimate flood discharges at the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP with these equations are 34.9, 37.1, 38.2, 41.6, 43.8, 46.0, 49.1, and 53.2 percent, respectively. Flood discharges at selected AEPs for streamgages were computed using the Expected Moments Algorithm. Techniques used to adjust an AEP discharge computed from a streamgage record with results from the regression equations and to estimate flood discharge at a selected AEP for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage using a drainage-area adjustment are both described. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is an internet-based application that provides automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

Vermont↗

Water-quality conditions and relation to drainage-basin characteristics in the Scituate Reservoir Basin, Rhode Island, 1982-95

The Scituate Reservoir Basin covers about 94 square miles in north central Rhode Island and supplies more than 60 percent of the State of Rhode Island's drinking water. The basin includes the Scituate Reservoir Basin and six smaller tributary reservoirs with a combined capacity of about 40 billion gallons. Most of the basin is forested and undeveloped. However, because of its proximity to the Providence, Rhode Island, metropolitan area, the basin is subject to increasing development pressure and there is concern that this may lead to the degradation of the water supply. Selected water-quality constituent concentrations, loads, and trends in the Scituate Reservoir Basin, Rhode Island, were investigated locate parts of the basin likely responsible for exporting disproportionately large amounts of water-quality constituents to streams, rivers, and tributary reservoirs, and to determine whether water quality in the basin has been changing with time. Water-quality data collected between 1982 and 1995 by the Providence Water Supply Board PWSB) in 34 subbasins of the Scituate Reservoir Basin were analyzed. Subbasin loads and yields of total coliform bacteria, chloride, nitrate, iron, and manganese, estimated from constituent concentrations and estimated mean daily discharge records for the 1995 water year, were used to determine which subbasins contributed disproportionately large amounts of these constituents. Measurements of pH, color, turbidity, and concentrations of total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese made between 1982 and 1995 by the PWSB were evaluated for trends. To determine the potential effects of human-induced changes in drainage- basin characteristics on water quality in the basin, relations between drainage-basin characteristics and concentrations of selected water-quality constituents also were investigated. Median values for pH, turbidity, total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, and iron were largest in subbasins with predominately residential land use. Median instantaneous loads reflected drainage-basin size. However, loads normalized by drainage area (median instantaneous yields) also were largest in residential areas where point and non-point sources are likely, and in areas of poorly drained soils. Significant trends in water-quality constituents from 1982 to 1995 in the Scituate Reservoir Basin indicate that the quality of the water resources in the basin may be slowly changing. Scituate Reservoir subbasins with large amounts of residential land use showed increasing trends in alkalinity and chloride. In contrast, subbasins distributed throughout the drainage basin showed increasing trends in pH, color, nitrate, and iron concentrations, indicating that these characteristics and constituents may be affected more by atmospheric deposition. Although changing, water-quality constituent concentrations in the Scituate Reservoir Basin only occasionally exceeded Rhode Island and USEPA water-quality guidelines and standards. Result of correlation analysis between pH, color, turbidity, and concentrations total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese and land use, geology, wetlands, slope, soil drainability, and roads indicated that the percentage of wetlands, roads, and slope appear have the greatest effect on water-quality in the Scituate Reservoir Basin. The percentage of urban, residential, and commercial land use also are important, but to a lesser degree than wetlands, roads, and slope. Finally, geology appears to have the least effect on water quality compared to other drainage-basin characteristics investigated.

Rhode Island↗

Basic ground-water hydrology

Ground water is one of the Nation's most valuable natural resources. It is the source of about 40 percent of the water used for all purposes exclusive of hydropower generation and electric powerplant cooling. Surprisingly, for a resource that is so widely used and so important to the health and to the economy of the country, the occurrence of ground water is not only poorly understood but is also, in fact, the subject of many widespread misconceptions. Common misconceptions include the belief that ground water occurs in underground rivers resembling surface streams whose presence can be detected by certain individuals. These misconceptions and others have hampered the development and conservation of ground water and have adversely affected the protection of its quality. In order for the Nation to receive maximum benefit from its ground-water resource, it is essential that everyone, from the rural homeowner to managers of industrial and municipal water supplies to heads of Federal and State water-regulatory agencies, become more knowledgeable about the occurrence, development, and protection of ground water. This report has been prepared to help meet the needs of these groups, as well as the needs of hydrologists, well drillers, and others engaged in the study and development of ground-water supplies. It consists of 45 sections on the basic elements of ground-water hydrology, arranged in order from the most basic aspects of the subject through a discussion of the methods used to determine the yield of aquifers to a discussion of common problems encountered in the operation of ground-water supplies. Each section consists of a brief text and one or more drawings or maps that illustrate the main points covered in the text. Because the text is, in effect, an expanded discussion of the illustrations, most of the illustrations are not captioned. However, where more than one drawing is included in a section, each drawing is assigned a number, given in parentheses, and these numbers are inserted at places in the text where the reader should refer to the drawing. In accordance with U.S. Geological Survey policy to encourage the use of metric units, these units are used in most sections. In the sections dealing with the analysis of aquifer (pumping) test data, equations are given in both consistent units and in the inconsistent inch-pound units still in relatively common use among ground-water hydrologists and well drillers. As an aid to those who are not familiar with metric units and with the conversion of ground-water hydraulic units from inch-pound units to metric units, conversion tables are given on the inside back cover. Definitions of ground-water terms are given where the terms are first introduced. Because some of these terms will be new to many readers, abbreviated definitions are also given on the inside front cover for convenient reference by those who wish to review the definitions from time to time as they read the text. Finally, for those who need to review some of the simple mathematical operations that are used in ground-water hydrology, a section on numbers, equations, and conversions is included at the end of the text.

Water Supply Paper↗

Turbidity as a factor in the decline of Great Lakes fishes with special reference to Lake Erie

Fish live and thrive in water with turbidities that range above 400 p.p.m. and average 200 p.p.m. The waters of the Great Lakes usually are clear except in Lake Erie where the turbidities of the inshore areas averaged 37 p.p.m.; the turbidities of the offshore waters averaged less. Lake Erie waters were no clearer 50 years ago than they are now. In fact, the turbidity values are less now than they were in the earlier years; the annual average of the inshore waters dropped from 44 p.p.m. before 1930 to 32 p.p.m. in 1930 and later, and the April-May values decreased from 72 p.p.m. to 46 p.p.m. Any general decline in the Lake Erie fishes cannot be attributed to increased turbidities. Furthermore, these turbidities averaged well below 100 p.p.m. and, therefore, were too low to affect fishes adversely. Turbidity in the open waters of Lake Erie is primarily the result of wave action induced by winds. River discharge is a minor factor even in the western end of the lake. Other probable factors are plankton, the eastward movement of the water mass, currents, seiches, and possibly bacteria. Wave action is undoubtedly the dominant agency in soil erosion along the shores of all of the Great Lakes. No evidence exists that fluctuations in the abundance of zooplankton, the basic food of fishes, and of the fishes themselves are positively correlated in Lake Erie or that the plankton crop in this lake is ever in short supply. On the contrary, all available evidence shows that Lake Erie is comparatively rich in plankton and that the western end in spite of its turbidity is richer than the eastern. Some factor other than turbidity dominates the basic productivity of western Lake Erie. With respect to turbidity Lake Erie has not become less suitable for fishes. This conclusion also receives support from the study of the fishes themselves. It was demonstrated that the growth of the western Lake Erie fishes compared very favorably with that of fishes in the other Great Lakes or similar waters. It was shown further that the known occurrence of relatively strong year classes in this lake was not consistently associated with low turbidities and conversely that the known low turbidities of the Lake Erie waters were not always accompanied by large year classes. Also, contrary to the “turbidity theory,” certain clean-water varieties, such as the walleye, have increased tremendously in recent years in Lake Erie, whereas the supposedly turbid-water forms, such as the sauger, have decreased in abundance. Reference was made to Doan's work, wherein he attempted to show correlation between turbidity and abundance for several species of Lake Erie fish but failed to do so except for the sauger where he reported a positive correlation. With respect to the productivity of fishes Lake Erie ranks first among the Great Lakes, and the western end in spite of its greater turbidity surpasses the eastern. As judged by certain accepted standards of water suitability, Lake Erie ranks high, and the western end again surpasses the eastern. Finally, it was pointed out that fishes which inhabit the clear waters of the Great Lakes declined as well as those which live in the more turbid waters and that turbidity, therefore, cannot be a factor in the depletion of all Great Lakes fishes. Furthermore, the reduction in abundance repeatedly has been associated with increased fishing intensity. All of the evidence indicates, then, that soil erosion on farms and the turbidity of the water were not major factors, if operative at all, in the decline of Great Lakes fishes and that they did not make Lake Erie unsuitable for fish life.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

Evaluation of some software measuring displacements using GPS in real-time

For the past decade, the USGS has been monitoring deformation at various locations in the western United States using continuous GPS. The main focus of these measurements are estimates of displacement averaged over one day. Essentially, these consist of recording at 30 seconds intervals the carrier-frequency phase-data (equivalent to travel-time) between a GPS receiver and the GPS satellite network. In turn, these observations, which are converted to pseudo—ranges, are processed using one of the “research grade” programs (GIPSY, Zumberge et al., or GAMIT, wwwgpsg.mit.edu/~simon/gtgk) to estimate the position of the GPS receiver averaged over 24 hours. However, it is possible and desirable to estimate the position of the receiver (actually the antenna) more frequently and to do this within a few seconds of the time actual measurement (known as real-time). A recent example, the 2004 Magnitude 6, Parkfield, California earthquake, demonstrated that having GPS estimates of position more frequently than simply a daily average is required if one requires discrimination between co-seismic and post-seismic deformation (Langbein et al., 2006). The high-rate estimates of position obtained at Parkfield show that post-seismic deformation started less than one-hour after the mainshock and that this deformation was roughly the same magnitude as the co-seismic deformation. The high-rate solutions for Parkfield were done by others including Yehuda Bock at UCSD and Kristine Larson at U. of Colorado, but not the USGS. The Parkfield experience points out the need for an in-house capability by the USGS to be able to accurately measure co-seismic displacements and other rapid, deformation signals using GPS. This applies to both the Earthquake and Volcano Hazard programs. Although at many locations where we monitor deformation, we have strainmeters and tiltmeters in addition to GPS which, in principle, are far more sensitive to rapid deformation over periods of less than a day (Langbein and Bock, 2004). But, not all locales include strain and tiltmeters. Thus, having the capability to extract signals with periods of less than a day is desirable since the distribution of GPS is more extensive than strain and tilt. At both Parkfield and Long Valley, the USGS has been using other software packages to process the GPS data at sub-daily intervals and in real-time. The underlying goal of these types of measurements is to detect any deformation event as it evolves; the 24 hour processing might not provide timely results if such a deformation event is precursory to a geologic hazard (an earthquake for Parkfield and either a volcanic event or an earthquake for Long Valley). In Long Valley, We use the software package called 3DTracker (http://www.3dtracker.com, http://www.condorearth.com) to estimate the changes of in position of a remote site relative to a “fixed” site. The 3DTracker software uses double difference GPS code measurements and receiversatellite-time triple differences from one epoch to the next of the GPS phase data (a proxy for travel-time measurements) and employs a Kalman filter to obtain stability in the estimate of position. That is, the estimate of the current position depends upon the estimate of the prior position. Hence, a time series of position looks fairly smooth depending upon the coefficient selected for the Kalman filter. With triple differences, the sometimes troublesome initial integer cycle ambiguity terms cancel (number of wavelengths between the receiver and each satellite), but only the incremental change in position is calculated. This triple difference Kalman filter solution is slow to converge and less accurate than a double difference (e.g., RTD, Track) solution, but it is robust and computationally efficient (Remondi and Brown, 2000). 3D-Tracker allows use of various single-frequency and dual-frequency GPS phase and code observables including the ionospheric-free combinations (known as LC or L3 and P(L3)) formed from an linear combination of the L1 and L2 carrier phase and code data. The lowest noise observable is the L1 carrier, but it is biased by ionospheric refraction that has amplitudes of about 1 to 10 ppm. This results in a systematic scale error in the relative positions. The L3 phase noise is about 3 times greater than the L1 phase noise, but it is generally used to solve for all but the shortest baselines (< 5 km). In addition, the software does output the position changes is a standard format that can be used for other analysis. At Parkfield, we use the software package called RTD (http://www.geodetics.com). The RTD software has been described in the literature (Bock et al., 2000) but basically, it estimates the position without the constraint of a Kalman filter. It uses double differences (in our studies the LC or ionospheric free observable is used) and the integer ambiguities are resolved independently for each 1-second measurement; Most GPS software that use double-differences require several epochs of measurements to resolve the integer ambiguities. The data files use a proprietary format and can not be read by me or others; rather, Yehuda Bock at UCSD (and author of RTD) translates these files into a standard format that can be read by me. Recently, Tom Herring of MIT has modified the GAMIT software to process kinematically GPS data (www-gpsg.mit.edu/~simon/gtgk/tutorial/Lecture_13.pdf). At this time, the software, known as TRACK, does not process the observations in real-time. Consequently, the latency between the time of the observation and the time when a position estimate is available depends upon the frequency that the data are downloaded and the speed of actually processing the observations; there could be a delay of an hour or two before the a position estimates are available. Unlike RTD and 3DTracker, TRACK comes with GAMIT (which is distributed freely) and is currently operating in a test mode at the USGS office in Pasadena. The LC or ionosphere free observable is used in our TRACK solutions. JPL has a version of their GIPSY software called “Real-time GIPSY (RTG)” (gipsy.jpl.nasa.gov/orms/rtg), which, like TRACK, can process the pseudo-range data “off—line”. However, this software is not freely distributed. Instead, at least one company, NAVCOM, has teamed with JPL to integrate RTG with GPS receivers and telemetry that yields positions in realtime. Kristine Larson of University of Colorado has modified the original GIPSY to estimate positions kinematically. Again, like TRACK, the positions are estimated off—line. Much of her research is described in Larson et al. (2003), and Choi et al. (2004). For Long Valley, out of the 17 GPS sites, we monitor 5 baselines within the caldera at 5 second intervals relative to the Bald Mountain site at the edge of the caldera using 3DTracker. The baseline measurement using 3DTracker consists of determination of the 3 dimensional positions of the 5 remote points (GPS receivers) relative to a GPS site at Bald. A second, independent system collects and downloads once a day the 30-second data used for the 24-hour solutions for the 12 sites not monitored with 3DTracker. For the sites monitored with 3DTracker, the pseudo—range data are decimated to 30 seconds and converted to a form used for the 24-hour solutions. Both sets of telemetry employ 900 MHz spread spectrum radios which require line of site between all of the links. The telemetry for the 3DTracker sites require a dedicated radios at each end and intermediate repeaters as needed, while the telemetry required for the other sites use a single master radio, repeaters as needed, and a radio at each remote site. (The 5 sites being monitored with 3DTracker require 13 radios.) At Parkfield, RTD is used to measure the position changes all 12 baselines at 1 second intervals relative to a site, Pomm, adjacent to the San Andreas Fault. The complete RTD package (hardware and software) collects all of the data and determines the position of each site relative to Pomm. In addition, the system stores both the 1-second and 30-second pseudo-range data for later downloading which are ultimately used in the 24-hour solutions. To do this, each site has a 2.4 GHz radio and a telemetry buffer. The telemetry buffer holds 24-hours of data (in the event that the telemetry link is broken) and converts the RS232 data stream from the GPS receiver into a form compatible with an IP (Internet protocol) network connection. In contrast with the Long Valley system, the telemetry link for GPS at Parkfield consists of a single radio at each remote sites and a single radio at the central site. Although position estimates are produced within 1-second of the observations, these results are not immediately available because there is no high speed Internet connection to Parkfield. Instead, the data are stored on a removable disk and sent to UCSD once per month. Below, I describe the results of a simple experiment to examine the response of some of these systems to simulated deformation that could be an analogue of a tectonic or volcanic event. In many engineering applications, the system response is tested by inputting a step to the system and measuring the output of the system. Essentially, this is what I've done. The experiment described below moves the GPS antenna from its original position to a new position within 1 second; the software tracks the translation. These measurements were conducted in August 2004 with the RTD software at Parkfield, and twice in Long Valley. The first Long Valley test was conducted in September 2004 using 3DTracker on a single baseline. The test was repeated in September 2005 using 3DTracker on two baselines and, importantly, saving the RINEX files of the data so that the data could be replayed through 3DTracker using other options in the program and, using other software packages including TRACK. In addition, we observed a short-term event at the Three Sisters volcano in Oregon. This event was snow melt at a remote GPS site which gave an apparent 15 cm displacement in vertical in less than one-day. 3DTracker is used to monitor this site, and the event was captured with this software. In addition, with the assistance of others, I got additional estimates of position using other software packages; those results are presented. Finally, the precision of both 3DTracker and RTD are compared using a power spectrum. Those results would suggest that 3DTracker using appropriate Kalman filter coefficients would have better precision than RTD; instead, the lower noise level from 3DTracker is a result of smoothing from the Kalman filter. Given the results described in this report, high-rate GPS is certainly capable of accurately measuring displacements of 1 centimeter with a high degree of statistical confidence. Plotting these results show that the time of the displacement can be visually determined to that of the sampling interval of the data. However, especially with small amplitude signals, any of the software packages can yield erroneous deformation “signals” that are either due excess travel-time of the GPS carrier frequency from multipath or a limitation in the software. Thus, the time series of displacements must be viewed with caution and knowledge of external circumstances that might cause a change in position. The casual reader should continue with the next section describing the methods then jump to the last two sections for the discussion and conclusions. I have made some recommendations there.

Open-File Report↗