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At least 901 records · Page 50Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Time scales of change in chemical and biological parameters after engineered levee breaches adjacent to Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon

Eight sampling trips were coordinated after engineered levee breaches hydrologically reconnected both Upper Klamath Lake and Agency Lake, Oregon, to adjacent wetlands. The reconnection, by a series of explosive blasts, was coordinated by The Nature Conservancy to reclaim wetlands that had for approximately seven decades been leveed for crop production. Sets of nonmetallic porewater profilers (U.S. Patent 8,051,727 B1; November 8, 2011; http://www.uspto.gov/web/patents/patog/ week45/OG/html/1372-2/US08051727-20111108.html.) were deployed during these trips in November 2007, June 2008, May 2009, July 2009, May 2010, August 2010, June 2011, and July 2011 (table 1). Deployments temporally spanned the annual cyanophyte bloom of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae and spatially involved three lake and four wetland sites. Spatial and temporal variation in solute benthic flux was determined by the field team, using the profilers, over an approximately 4-year period beginning 3 days after the levee breaches. The highest flux to the water column of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was detected in the newly flooded wetland, contrasting negative or insignificant DOC fluxes at adjacent lake sites. Over the multiyear study, DOC benthic fluxes dissipated in the reconnected wetlands, converging to values similar to those for established wetlands and to the adjacent lake (table 2). In contrast to DOC, benthic sources of soluble reactive phosphorus, ammonium, dissolved iron and manganese from within the reconnected wetlands were consistently elevated (that is, significant in magnitude relative to riverine and established-wetland sources) indicating a multi-year time scale for certain chemical changes after the levee breaches (table 2). Colonization of the reconnected wetlands by aquatic benthic invertebrates during the study trended toward the assemblages in established wetlands, providing further evidence of a multiyear transition of this area to permanent aquatic habitat (table 3). Both the lake and wetland benthic environments substantively contribute to macro- and micronutrients in the water column. Wetland areas undergoing restoration, and those being used for water storage, function very differently relatively to the established wetland within the Upper Klamath Lake National Wildlife Refuge, adjacent Upper Klamath Lake. Developing long-term management strategies for water quality in the Upper Klamath Basin requires recognition of the multi-year time scales associated with restoring wetlands that provide natural, seasonal ecosystem function and services.

Oregon↗
USGS2020

Louisiana Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring Program: Mapping habitats in beach, dune, and intertidal environments along the Louisiana Gulf of Mexico shoreline, 2008 and 2015–16

Barrier islands, headlands, and coastal shorelines provide numerous valuable ecosystem goods and services, including storm protection and erosion control for the mainland, habitat for fish and wildlife, salinity regulation in estuaries, carbon sequestration in marshes, and areas for recreation and tourism. These coastal features are dynamic environments because of their position at the land-sea interface. Storms, wave energy, tides, currents, and relative sea-level rise are powerful forces that shape local geomorphology and habitat distribution. In order to make more informed decisions, coastal resource managers require insights into how these dynamic systems are changing through time. In 2005, Louisiana’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, in partnership with the University of New Orleans and the U.S. Geological Survey, developed the Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring (BICM) Program. The goal of the BICM Program is to develop long-term datasets for habitat coverage, shoreline assessments, shoreline position, topobathymetric changes, and sediment characterization to assist with planning, designing, evaluating, and maintaining current and future barrier shorelines. The overall objectives of the study described in this report were to (1) map habitats for 2008 and 2015–16 for BICM coastal reaches and (2) map habitat change between these two time periods. This report highlights the second phase of habitat analyses for the BICM Program. This work builds on a previous habitat analysis conducted by the University of New Orleans, which included the development of habitat maps for 1996/1998, 2001, 2004, and 2005, along with habitat change maps. For this current effort, a new 15-class habitat scheme was developed from the original BICM scheme to further delineate various dune habitats, including meadow habitat found along the backslopes of dunes, to distinguish between marsh and mangrove, and to distinguish between beach and unvegetated barrier flat habitats. Additionally, a geographic object-based image analysis-based mapping framework was used to incorporate relative topography and address elevation uncertainty in light detection and ranging data to assist with mapping dune and intertidal habitats. For the entire BICM region, the area experiencing a change in a land/water category (that is, land gain or land loss) was 3.4 percent, of which, 59.2 percent was land gain and 40.8 percent was land loss. Areal coverages of meadow, mangrove, scrub/shrub, and vegetated dune increased from 2008 to 2015–16, whereas areal coverages of beach, grassland, and intertidal decreased. The decrease in intertidal, however, was largely due to differing water levels in the orthophotography between the two time periods. Regional analyses of habitat coverage and habitat change captured the dynamic nature of these systems and the effects of restoration efforts, most notably in the Late Lafourche Delta, Modern Delta, and Chandeleur Islands regions. For instance, in the Modern Delta region there was a marked increase in unvegetated flat, meadow, mangrove, scrub/shrub, beach, unvegetated dune, and vegetated dune. As a result, this region experienced the highest percent change for land/water classes (6.6 percent) with land gain accounting for much of this change (70.8 percent). In contrast, the Acadiana Bays region had the highest relative percent loss of all regions. The region had a percent change for land/water classes of 2.8 percent, of which, 79.7 percent was land loss. The results of this study provide information about the areal coverage and distribution of habitats for two recent time periods and change over about an 8-year period. These data can be used to evaluate changes along the Louisiana Gulf of Mexico shoreline, including gradual changes caused by coastal processes, restoration actions, and (or) episodic events, such as hurricanes and extreme storms.

Louisiana↗
USGS2016

Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on deep-sea coral-associated sediment communities

Cold-water corals support distinct populations of infauna within surrounding sediments that provide vital ecosystem functions and services in the deep sea. Yet due to their sedentary existence, infauna are vulnerable to perturbation and contaminant exposure because they are unable to escape disturbance events. While multiple deep-sea coral habitats were injured by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill, the extent of adverse effects on coral-associated sediment communities is unknown. In 2011, sediments were collected adjacent to several coral habitats located 6 to 183 km from the wellhead in order to quantify the extent of impact of the DWH spill on infaunal communities. Higher variance in macrofaunal abundance and diversity, and different community structure (higher multivariate dispersion) were associated with elevated hydrocarbon concentrations and contaminants at sites closest to the wellhead (MC294, MC297, and MC344), consistent with impacts from the spill. In contrast, variance in meiofaunal diversity was not significantly related to distance from the wellhead and no other community metric (e.g. density or multivariate dispersion) was correlated with contaminants or hydrocarbon concentrations. Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) provided the best statistical explanation for observed macrofaunal community structure, while depth and presence of fine-grained mud best explained meiofaunal community patterns. Impacts associated with contaminants from the DWH spill resulted in a patchwork pattern of infaunal community composition, diversity, and abundance, highlighting the role of variability as an indicator of disturbance. These data represent a useful baseline for tracking post-spill recovery of these deep-sea communities.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗
USGS2019

Climate, environment, and disturbance history govern resilience of western North American Forests

Before the advent of intensive forest management and fire suppression, western North American forests exhibited a naturally occurring resistance and resilience to wildfires and other disturbances. Resilience, which encompasses resistance, reflects the amount of disruption an ecosystem can withstand before its structure or organization qualitatively shift to a different basin of attraction. In fire-maintained forests, resilience to disturbance events arose primarily from vegetation pattern-disturbance process interactions at several levels of organization. Using evidence from 15 ecoregions, spanning forests from Canada to Mexico, we review the properties of forests that reinforced qualities of resilience and resistance. We show examples of multi-level landscape resilience, of feedbacks within and among levels, and how conditions have changed under climatic and management influences. We highlight geographic similarities and important differences in the structure and organization of historical landscapes, their forest types, and in the conditions that have changed resilience and resistance to abrupt or large-scale disruptions. We discuss the role of the regional climate in episodically or abruptly reorganizing plant and animal biogeography and forest resilience and resistance to disturbances. We give clear examples of these changes and suggest that managing for resilient forests is a construct that strongly depends on scale and human social values. It involves human communities actively working with the ecosystems they depend on, and the processes that shape them, to adapt landscapes, species, and human communities to climate change while maintaining core ecosystem processes and services. Finally, it compels us to embrace management approaches that incorporate ongoing disturbances and anticipated effects of climatic changes, and to support dynamically shifting patchworks of forest and non-forest. Doing so could make these shifting forest conditions and wildfire regimes less disruptive to individuals and society.

western North America↗
USGS2018

A dirty dozen ways to die: Metrics and modifiers of mortality driven by drought and warming for a tree species

Tree mortality events driven by drought and warmer temperature, often amplified by pests and pathogens, are emerging as one of the predominant climate change impacts on plants. Understanding and predicting widespread tree mortality events in the future is vital as they affect ecosystem goods and services provided by forests and woodlands, including carbon storage needed to help offset warming. Additionally, if extensive enough, tree die-off events can influence not only local climate but also climate and vegetation elsewhere via ecoclimate teleconnections. Consequently, recent efforts have focused on improving predictions of tree mortality. One of the most commercially important genera of trees is Pinus , and the most studied species globally for drought-induced tree mortality is piñon pine, Pinus edulis . Numerous metrics have been developed in association with predicting mortality thresholds or variations in mortality for this species. In this article, we compiled metrics associated with drought and warming related mortality that were developed for P. edulis or for which P. edulis was a key example species used in a calculation or prediction. We grouped these metrics into three categories: (i) those related to simple climate variables, (ii) those related to physiological responses, and (iii) those that require multi-step calculations or modeling using climate, ecohydrological, and/or ecophysiological data; and we identified the spatial-temporal scale of each of these metrics. We also compiled factors shown to modify rates or sensitivities of mortality. The metrics to predict mortality include empirical ones which often have implicit linkages to expected mechanisms, and more mechanistic ones related to physiological drivers. The metrics for P. edulis have similarities with those available for other species of Pinus . Expected future mortality events will provide an opportunity to observationally and experimentally test and compare these metrics related to tree mortality for P. edulis via near-term ecological forecasting. The metrics for P. edulis may also be useful as potential analogs for other genera. Improving predictions of tree mortality for this species and others will be increasingly important as an aid to move toward anticipatory management.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗
USGS2024

Characterization of change in tree cover state and condition over the conterminous United States

Variability in the effects of disturbances and extreme climate events can lead to changes in tree cover over time, including partial or complete loss, with diverse ecological consequences. It is therefore critical to identify in space and time the change processes that lead to tree cover change. Studies of change are often hampered by the lack of data capable of consistently detecting different types of change. Using the Landsat satellite record to create a long time-series of land cover and land cover change, the U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Monitoring Assessment and Projection (LCMAP) project has made an annual time series of land cover across the conterminous United States for the period 1985 to 2018. Multiple LCMAP products analyzed together with map validation reference plots provide a robust basis for understanding tree cover change. In LCMAP (Collection 1.2), annual change detection is based on harmonic model breaks calculated at each Landsat pixel from the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. The results showed that the majority of CCDC harmonic model breaks (signifying change) indicated partial tree cover loss (associated with management practices such as tree cover thinning) as compared to complete tree cover loss (associated with practices like clearcut harvest or fire disturbance). Substantially fewer occurrences of complete tree cover loss were associated with change in land cover state. The area of annual tree cover change increased after the late 1990s and stayed high for the rest of the study period. The reference data showed that tree harvest dominated across the conterminous United States. The majority of tree cover change occurred in evergreen forests. Large estimates of disturbance-related tree cover change indicated that tree cover loss may have previously been underreported due to omission of partial tree cover loss in prior studies. This has considerable implications for forest carbon accounting along with tracking ecosystem goods and services.

Forests↗
USGS2019

Monitoring landscape dynamics in central U.S. grasslands with harmonized Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 time series data

Remotely monitoring changes in central U.S. grasslands is challenging because these landscapes tend to respond quickly to disturbances and changes in weather. Such dynamic responses influence nutrient cycling, greenhouse gas contributions, habitat availability for wildlife, and other ecosystem processes and services. Traditionally, coarse-resolution satellite data acquired at daily intervals have been used for monitoring. Recently, the harmonized Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 (HLS) data increased the temporal frequency of the data. Here we investigated if the increased data frequency provided adequate observations to characterize highly dynamic grassland processes. We evaluated HLS data available for 2016 to (1) determine if data from Sentinel-2 contributed to an improvement in characterizing landscape processes over Landsat-8 data alone, and (2) quantify how observation frequency impacted results. Specifically, we investigated into estimating annual vegetation phenology, detecting burn scars from fire, and modeling within-season wetland hydroperiod and growth of aquatic vegetation. We observed increased sensitivity to the start of the growing season (SOST) with the HLS data. Our estimates of the grassland SOST compared well with ground estimates collected at a phenological camera site. We used the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm to assess if the HLS data improved our detection of burn scars following grassland fires and found that detection was considerably influenced by the seasonal timing of the fires. The grassland burned in early spring recovered too quickly to be detected as change events by CCDC; instead, the spectral characteristics following these fires were incorporated as part of the ongoing time-series models. In contrast, the spectral effects from late-season fires were detected both by Landsat-8 data and HLS data. For wetland-rich areas, we used a modified version of the CCDC algorithm to track within-season dynamics of water and aquatic vegetation. The addition of Sentinel-2 data provided the potential to build full time series models to better distinguish different wetland types, suggesting that the temporal density of data was sufficient for within-season characterization of wetland dynamics. Although the different data frequency, in both the spatial and temporal dimensions, could cause inconsistent model estimation or sensitivity sometimes; overall, the temporal frequency of the HLS data improved our ability to track within-season grassland dynamics and improved results for areas prone to cloud contamination. The results suggest a greater frequency of observations, such as from harmonizing data across all comparable Landsat and Sentinel sensors, is still needed. For our study areas, at least a 3-day revisit interval during the early growing season (weeks 14–17) is required to provide a >50% probability of obtaining weekly clear observations.

Minnesota↗
USGS2015

The challenges of remote monitoring of wetlands

Wetlands are highly productive and support a wide variety of ecosystem goods and services. Various forms of global change impose compelling needs for timely and reliable information on the status of wetlands worldwide, but several characteristics of wetlands make them challenging to monitor remotely: they lack a single, unifying land-cover feature; they tend to be highly dynamic and their energy signatures are constantly changing; and steep environmental gradients in and around wetlands produce narrow ecotones that often are below the resolving capacity of remote sensors. These challenges and needs set the context for a special issue focused on wetland remote sensing. Contributed papers responded to one of three overarching questions aimed at improving remote, large-area monitoring of wetlands: (1) What approaches and data products are being developed specifically to support regional to global long-term monitoring of wetland landscapes? (2) What are the promising new technologies and sensor/multisensor approaches for more accurate and consistent detection of wetlands? (3) Are there studies that demonstrate how remote long-term monitoring of wetland landscapes can reveal changes that correspond with changes in land cover and land use and/or changes in climate?

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2016

Is the geographic range of mangrove forests in the conterminous United States really expanding?

Changes in the distribution and abundance of mangrove species within and outside of their historic geographic range can have profound consequences in the provision of ecosystem goods and services they provide. Mangroves in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are believed to be expanding poleward (north) due to decreases in the frequency and severity of extreme cold events, while sea level rise is a factor often implicated in the landward expansion of mangroves locally. We used ~35 years of satellite imagery and in situ observations for CONUS and report that: (i) poleward expansion of mangrove forest is inconclusive, and may have stalled for now, and (ii) landward expansion is actively occurring within the historical northernmost limit. We revealed that the northernmost latitudinal limit of mangrove forests along the east and west coasts of Florida, in addition to Louisiana and Texas has not systematically expanded toward the pole. Mangrove area, however, expanded by 4.3% from 1980 to 2015 within the historic northernmost boundary, with the highest percentage of change in Texas and southern Florida. Several confounding factors such as sea level rise, absence or presence of sub-freezing temperatures, land use change, impoundment/dredging, changing hydrology, fire, storm, sedimentation and erosion, and mangrove planting are responsible for the change. Besides, sea level rise, relatively milder winters and the absence of sub-freezing temperatures in recent decades may be enabling the expansion locally. The results highlight the complex set of forcings acting on the northerly extent of mangroves and emphasize the need for long-term monitoring as this system increases in importance as a means to adapt to rising oceans and mitigate the effects of increased atmospheric CO 2 .

Sensors↗
USGS2014

Detecting emergence, growth, and senescence of wetland vegetation with polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data

Wetlands provide ecosystem goods and services vitally important to humans. Land managers and policymakers working to conserve wetlands require regularly updated information on the statuses of wetlands across the landscape. However, wetlands are challenging to map remotely with high accuracy and consistency. We investigated the use of multitemporal polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data acquired with Canada’s Radarsat-2 system to track within-season changes in wetland vegetation and surface water. We speculated, a priori , how temporal and morphological traits of different types of wetland vegetation should respond over a growing season with respect to four energy-scattering mechanisms. We used ground-based monitoring data and other ancillary information to assess the limits and consistency of the SAR data for tracking seasonal changes in wetlands. We found the traits of different types of vertical emergent wetland vegetation were detected well with the SAR data and corresponded with our anticipated backscatter responses. We also found using data from Landsat’s optical/infrared sensors in conjunction with SAR data helped remove confusion of wetland features with upland grasslands. These results suggest SAR data can provide useful monitoring information on the statuses of wetlands over time.

Water↗
USGS2020

Potential impacts of future urbanization and sea level rise on Florida’s natural resources

As urban development continues to encroach into natural systems, these ecosystems experience increasing degradation to their form and function. Losses in biodiversity and ecosystem function are further compounded by changing climatic conditions. The State of Florida is known for its biodiversity but has experienced declines in species populations and habitats because of urbanization and sea level rise. These declines are particularly challenging in an economy that benefits from a multibillion-dollar income from natural resources tourism. In this study, we assessed the potential future impacts of urbanization and sea level rise on a suite of conservation targets that have been set for the State. We developed six scenarios of all combinations of intermediate and high sea level rise paired with two types of urbanization (sprawling and compact) in both 2040 and 2070 to examine the potential future threats to conservation targets in High Pine and Scrub, Coastal Uplands, and Freshwater Aquatics ecosystems. Our results show projected decreases in extent and area of these priority ecosystems into the future. Florida's current trend in urbanization practices are projected to have a greater impact on conservation targets than if sprawl reduction practices are implemented. Coastal Uplands are projected to experience the greatest loss in area, at up to 47%. Conservation-focused urban planning and climate adaptation strategies can help protect Florida's natural resources with benefits to Florida's tourism economy as well as critical ecosystem functions and services such as coastal flood protection and storm surge risk reduction.

Florida↗
USGS2020

Vulnerability of resource-users in Louisiana’s oyster fishery to environmental hazards

Knowledge of vulnerability provides the foundation for developing actions that minimize impacts on people while maximizing the sustainability of ecosystem goods and services. As a result, it is becoming increasingly important to determine how resource-dependent people are vulnerable to environmental hazards. This is particularly true in coastal Louisiana where the current era of rapid land loss has the potential to undermine oyster fisheries. Yet, little is known about how such environmental change might differentially impact resource-users and stakeholders. We examined social components of vulnerability to environmental hazards using indicators of susceptibility and adaptive capacity within the oyster fishery of Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana. Specifically, we used structured interviews to compare three resource-user roles: oyster fishers, oyster fishers/lease owners, and oyster lease owners only. Results indicated that oyster fishers/lease owners were highly dependent and thus susceptible to changes in the fishery due to high levels of occupational identity. The same people, however, were the most adaptable to change, which was reflected in their willingness to learn about new practices and evolve over time; higher susceptibility in this group was offset by an increased ability to adapt, cope, and respond to changes in the environment. In contrast to these findings, oyster fishers that did not own any portion of a lease or business in which they operated were bad at coping with change and frequently held negative or fatalistic views on financial planning. These attributes made them the most vulnerable to environmental hazards. Overall, the most vulnerable participants in the Terrebonne Parish oyster fishery were those with low to moderate levels of personal and financial buffers and trust, coupled with high occupational identity and a low motivation to change. Local policy actions that target these attributes are likely to be the best entry points to reducing vulnerability of stakeholders to hazards.

Louisianna↗
USGS2016

Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

A fundamental environmental challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and beyond is predicting the impacts of global environmental change. This challenge is complicated by the fact that we live on a non-stationary, unreplicated planet that is rapidly moving outside the envelope of natural variability into an historical non-analog world. In other words, while the past helps inform us about how the world has worked, it may no longer be the relevant frame of reference for management, conservation, and sustainability. In this future world the two questions at the foundation of sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect this trajectory?” These are, at their heart, questions about ecological forecasting.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2010

Prairie wetland complexes as landscape functional units in a changing climate

The wetland complex is the functional ecological unit of the prairie pothole region (PPR) of central North America. Diverse complexes of wetlands contribute high spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity, productivity, and biodiversity to these glaciated prairie landscapes. Climatewarming simulations using the new model WETLANDSCAPE (WLS) project major reductions in water volume, shortening of hydroperiods, and less-dynamic vegetation for prairie wetland complexes. The WLS model portrays the future PPR as a much less resilient ecosystem: The western PPR will be too dry and the eastern PPR will have too few functional wetlands and nesting habitat to support historic levels of waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. Maintaining ecosystem goods and services at current levels in a warmer climate will be a major challenge for the conservation community.

BioScience↗
USGS2022

Understanding impacts of sea-level rise and land management on critical coastal marsh habitat

Coastal wetlands in the Louisiana Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) experience some of the highest rates of relative sea-level rise (SLR) in the world, leading to elevated surface water salinity and prolonged flooding. Elevated salinity causes a shift toward more salt-tolerant vegetation communities, associated with changes in ecosystem function and services. As sea level continues to rise, even salt-tolerant plant communities succumb to impacts of excessive flooding through submergence and conversion to open water. To better characterize the impacts of SLR on coastal wetland health and sustainability, we focused on two key landscape transitions in this project: 1) freshwater marsh transition to saltwater marsh, and 2) saltwater marsh transition to open water. We investigated these transitions using data with greater spatial and temporal resolution than previous studies in this region, allowing us to identify the mechanisms underlying widely observed landscape changes.

Louisiana↗
USGS2017

Associations between cyanobacteria and indices of secondary production in the western basin of Lake Erie

Large lakes provide a variety of ecological services to surrounding cities and communities. Many of these services are supported by ecological processes that are threatened by the increasing prevalence of cyanobacterial blooms which occur as aquatic ecosystems experience cultural eutrophication. Over the past 10 yr, Lake Erie experienced cyanobacterial blooms of increasing severity and frequency, which have resulted in impaired drinking water for the surrounding communities. Cyanobacterial blooms may impact ecological processes that support other services, but many of these impacts have not been documented. Secondary production (production of primary consumers) is an important process that supports economically important higher trophic levels. Cyanobacterial blooms may influence secondary production because cyanobacteria are a poor‐quality food resource and cyanotoxins may be harmful to consumers. Over 3 yr at 34 sites across the western basin of Lake Erie, we measured three indices of secondary production that focus on the dominant bivalve taxa: (1) growth of a native unionid mussel, (2) the size of young‐of‐year dreissenid mussels, and (3) the mass of colonizing animals on a Hester‐Dendy sampler. Associations between these indices and cyanobacterial data were estimated to assess whether cyanobacteria are associated with variation in secondary production in the western basin of Lake Erie. The results suggest cyanobacterial abundance alone is only weakly associated with secondary production, but that cyanotoxins have a larger effect on secondary production. Given recurring late‐summer cyanobacterial blooms, this impact on secondary production has the potential to undermine Lake Erie's ability to sustain important ecosystem services.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2018

Alaska

Alaska is the largest state in the Nation, almost one-fifth the size of the combined lower 48 United States, and is rich in natural capital resources. Alaska is often identified as being on the front lines of climate change since it is warming faster than any other state and faces a myriad of issues associated with a changing climate. The cost of infrastructure damage from a warming climate is projected to be very large, potentially ranging from $110 to $270 million per year, assuming timely repair and maintenance. Although climate change does and will continue to dramatically transform the climate and environment of the Arctic, proactive adaptation in Alaska has the potential to reduce costs associated with these impacts. This includes the dissemination of several tools, such as guidebooks to support adaptation planning, some of which focus on Indigenous communities. While many opportunities exist with a changing climate, economic prospects are not well captured in the literature at this time. As the climate continues to warm, there is likely to be a nearly sea ice-free Arctic during the summer by mid-century. Ocean acidification is an emerging global problem that will intensify with continued carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and negatively affects organisms. Climate change will likely affect management actions and economic drivers, including fisheries, in complex ways. The use of multiple alternative models to appropriately characterize uncertainty in future fisheries biomass trajectories and harvests could help manage these challenges. As temperature and precipitation increase across the Alaska landscape, physical and biological changes are also occurring throughout Alaska’s terrestrial ecosystems. Degradation of permafrost is expected to continue, with associated impacts to infrastructure, river and stream discharge, water quality, and fish and wildlife habitat. Longer sea ice-free seasons, higher ground temperatures, and relative sea level rise are expected to exacerbate flooding and accelerate erosion in many regions, leading to the loss of terrestrial habitat in the future and in some cases requiring entire communities or portions of communities to relocate to safer terrain. The influence of climate change on human health in Alaska can be traced to three sources: direct exposures, indirect effects, and social or psychological disruption. Each of these will have different manifestations for Alaskans when compared to residents elsewhere in the United States. Climate change exerts indirect effects on human health in Alaska through changes to water, air, and soil and through ecosystem changes affecting disease ecology and food security, especially in rural communities. Alaska’s rural communities are predominantly inhabited by Indigenous peoples who may be disproportionately vulnerable to socioeconomic and environmental change; however, they also have rich cultural traditions of resilience and adaptation. The impacts of climate change will likely affect all aspects of Alaska Native societies, from nutrition, infrastructure, economics, and health consequences to language, education, and the communities themselves. The profound and diverse climate-driven changes in Alaska’s physical environment and ecosystems generate economic impacts through their effects on environmental services. These services include positive benefits directly from ecosystems (for example, food, water, and other resources), as well as services provided directly from the physical environment (for example, temperature moderation, stable ground for supporting infrastructure, and smooth surface for overland transportation). Some of these effects are relatively assured and in some cases are already occurring. Other impacts are highly uncertain, due to their dependence on the structure of global and regional economies and future human alterations to the environment decades into the future, but they could be large. In Alaska, a range of adaptations to changing climate and related environmental conditions are underway and others have been proposed as potential actions, including measures to reduce vulnerability and risk, as well as more systemic institutional transformation.

Report↗
USGS2022

Presence of the herbaceous marsh species Schoenoplectus americanus enhances surface elevation gain in transitional coastal wetland communities exposed to elevated CO2 and sediment deposition events

Coastal wetlands are dynamic ecosystems that exist along a landscape continuum that can range from freshwater forested wetlands to tidal marsh to mudflat communities. Climate-driven stressors, such as sea-level rise, can cause shifts among these communities, resulting in changes to ecological functions and services. While a growing body of research has characterized the landscape-scale impacts of individual climate-driven stressors, little is known about how multiple stressors and their potential interactions will affect ecological functioning of these ecosystems. How will coastal wetlands respond to discrete climate disturbances, such as hurricane sediment deposition events, under future conditions of elevated atmospheric CO 2 ? Will these responses vary among the different wetland communities? We conducted experimental greenhouse manipulations to simulate sediment deposition from a land-falling hurricane under future elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (720 ppm CO 2 ). We measured responses of net primary production, decomposition, and elevation change in mesocosms representing four communities along a coastal wetland landscape gradient: freshwater forested wetland, forest/marsh mix, marsh, and mudflat. When Schoenoplectus americanus was present, above- and belowground biomass production was highest, decomposition rates were lowest, and wetland elevation gain was greatest, regardless of CO 2 and sediment deposition treatments. Sediment addition initially increased elevation capital in all communities, but post-deposition rates of elevation gain were lower than in mesocosms without added sediment. Together these results indicate that encroachment of oligohaline marshes into freshwater forested wetlands can enhance belowground biomass accumulation and resilience to sea-level rise, and these plant-mediated ecosystem services will be augmented by periodic sediment pulses from storms and restoration efforts.

Plants↗