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At least 901 records · Page 50Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Restoration of impaired ecosystems: An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure? introduction, overview, and key messages from a SETAC-SER workshop

A workshop on Restoration of Impaired Ecosystems was held in Jackson, Wyoming, in June 2014. Experts from Australia, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States in ecotoxicology, restoration, and related fields from both the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Society for Ecological Restoration convened to advance the practice of restoring ecosystems that have been contaminated or impaired from industrial activities. The overall goal of this workshop was to provide a forum for ecotoxicologists and restoration ecologists to define the best scientific practices to achieve ecological restoration while addressing contaminant concerns. To meet this goal, participants addressed 5 areas: 1) links between ecological risk assessment and ecological restoration, 2) restoration goals, 3) restoration design, 4) monitoring for restoration effectiveness and 5) recognizing opportunities and challenges. Definitions are provided to establish a common language across the varied disciplines. The current practice for addressing restoration of impaired ecosystems tends to be done sequentially to remediate contaminants, then to restore ecological structure and function. A better approach would anticipate or plan for restoration throughout the process. By bringing goals to the forefront, we may avoid intrusive remediation activities that close off options for the desired restoration. Participants realized that perceived limitations in the site assessment process hinder consideration of restoration goals; contaminant presence will influence restoration goal choices; social, economic, and cultural concerns can factor into goal setting; restoration options and design should be considered early during site assessment and management; restoration of both structure and function is encouraged; creative solutions can overcome limitations; a regional focus is imperative; monitoring must occur throughout the restoration process; and reciprocal transfer of knowledge is needed among theorists, practitioners, and stakeholders and among varied disciplines.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗
USGS2022

Modeling the impact of invasive species litter on conditions affecting its spread and potential regime shift

Many introduced plants pose invasion risks globally and threaten the biodiversity of native ecosystems. Such non-native plants can become invasive when they have advantages over native plants, such as having fewer natural enemies. Invasive plants often have the ability to alter ecosystem properties after they have become established, which can make it difficult to eliminate the invasive. In principle, this can cause a regime shift that may not be reversed through intense control efforts that increase mortality and reduce growth of the invasive species. Here we use spatially explicit agent-based modeling to simulate the invasion of an introduced tree species into a habitat occupied by a native species. The model describes an invasive tree with fast growth and high seed production and, in addition, produces litter that has a suppressive effect on native seedlings. These are properties, for example, shared by the invasive Melaleuca quinquenervia in southern Florida habitats. We use simulation modeling to test the following logical hypotheses: Partial suppression of native tree seedlings by the invasive tree's litter (1) will accelerate the spread of the invasive tree into native vegetation, (2) will impede efforts to control invasive spread through biocontrol, and (3) can cause a regime shift that is not reversed even if the biocontrol lowers invasive growth and reproduction to levels substantially lower than those of the native species. Additionally, (4) the earlier in the invasion biocontrol is introduced, the more effective it will be in reversing the invasion. The simulations support all four hypotheses. While these results highlight the potential for biocontrol of invasive tree species, our findings also suggest that successful elimination of positive litter feedbacks and invasive spread may critically depend on the timing of control efforts within the invasion process.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2025

Understanding predator-prey-competitor dynamics between Lower Missouri River Macrhybopsis and Scaphirhynchus using a population—bioenergetics model ensemble

The pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus is a long-lived, endangered fish in the Missouri River. Individuals become piscivorous as adults, so recruitment from stocking or reproduction could reduce populations of prey, including Macrhybopsis chubs. We constructed an individual- and age-based, multi-species, predator-prey-competitor model (IAMP) to represent the benthic community (sturgeons, chubs, and chironomids) of the Lower Missouri River (LMR) to explore scenarios of potential predator-prey-competitor dynamics. Our simulations suggest that chubs alone are unlikely able to support a level of LMR pallid sturgeon similar to historical or current populations. These simulations also suggest that adult pallid sturgeon may need to shift to non-chub prey fish to achieve the greater sizes observed in the Upper Missouri River. When annual hydrologic regimes were included, we found a negative relationship between chub relative abundance and previous year 30-day minimum flows. Inclusion of temporal environmental variability made it clear that large chub populations may be necessary to support LMR pallid sturgeon. When full stochasticity was included in the IAMP, chub population sizes needed to increase further to ensure continued reproduction and recruitment of both chubs and pallid sturgeon. These results support the hypothesis that the pallid sturgeon population in the Lower Missouri River may be food-limited. However, the full extent of this limitation and the management changes needed to address this will require more research on the biology and population dynamics of this fish community, on pallid sturgeon interactions with prey species, and on how sympatric species may be affected during the pallid sturgeon recovery process.

Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Ne↗
USGS2025

Marshes to mangroves: Residential surveys reveal perceived wetland trade-offs for ecosystem services

Coastal landscapes are rapidly changing due to both climate change and the decisions of waterfront landowners. For instance, the climate-driven encroachment of woody mangrove species into grassy marshland areas is predicted to impact coastal ecosystems, with consequences for the ecosystem services these landscapes provide to people. However, there is a dearth of knowledge concerning coastal resident perceptions of the effects of mangrove expansion on wetlands and their ecosystem services, which may impact residents’ behavior around shorelines and landscape-level patterns. We surveyed waterfront residents in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA) to understand perceptions of the relative performance of marshes and mangroves to deliver fisheries ecosystem services. Residential-scale shoreline condition and preference, recreational fishing activity, geography, and demographics were evaluated as potential predictors of resident perceptions through non-parametric comparisons across groups and ordered logit modeling. Significant predictors included area of residence, marsh shoreline condition, marsh shoreline preference, fishing frequency, and household income. Florida residents (where mangroves are most prevalent) and frequent recreational fishing participants exhibited stronger preference for mangroves. Unexpectedly, residents with marsh currently present on their shoreline also perceived that mangroves were better at delivering fisheries ecosystem services than marshes. Considering the important role that coastal residents play in shoreline management decisions, these results demonstrate how coastal resident attitudes may drive or mediate climate-driven processes in ways that are not evident by examining environmental conditions alone. Understanding social-ecological shifts due to climate change will be important to inform effective landscape management that promotes resilience in coastal ecosystems and societies.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗
USGS2006

Linking the concept of scale to studies of biological diversity: evolving approaches and tools.

Although the concepts of scale and biological diversity independently have received rapidly increasing attention in the scientific literature since the 1980s, the rate at which the two concepts have been investigated jointly has grown much more slowly. We find that scale considerations have been incorporated explicitly into six broad areas of investigation related to biological diversity: (1) heterogeneity within and among ecosystems, (2) disturbance ecology, (3) conservation and restoration, (4) invasion biology, (5) importance of temporal scale for understanding processes, and (6) species responses to environmental heterogeneity. In addition to placing the papers of this Special Feature within the context of brief summaries of the expanding literature on these six topics, we provide an overview of tools useful for integrating scale considerations into studies of biological diversity. Such tools include hierarchical and structural-equation modelling, kriging, variable-width buffers, k -fold cross-validation, and cascading graph diagrams, among others. Finally, we address some of the major challenges and research frontiers that remain, and conclude with a look to the future.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2012

Partly cloudy with a chance of migration: Weather, radars, and aeroecology

Aeroecology is an emerging scientific discipline that integrates atmospheric science, Earth science, geography, ecology, computer science, computational biology, and engineering to further the understanding of biological patterns and processes. The unifying concept underlying this new transdisciplinary field of study is a focus on the planetary boundary layer and lower free atmosphere (i.e., the aerosphere), and the diversity of airborne organisms that inhabit and depend on the aerosphere for their existence. Here, we focus on the role of radars and radar networks in aeroecological studies. Radar systems scanning the atmosphere are primarily used to monitor weather conditions and track the location and movements of aircraft. However, radar echoes regularly contain signals from other sources, such as airborne birds, bats, and arthropods. We briefly discuss how radar observations can be and have been used to study a variety of airborne organisms and examine some of the many potential benefits likely to arise from radar aeroecology for meteorological and biological research over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Radar systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated with the advent of innovative signal processing and dual-polarimetric capabilities. These capabilities should be better harnessed to promote both meteorological and aeroecological research and to explore the interface between these two broad disciplines. We strongly encourage close collaboration among meteorologists, radar scientists, biologists, and others toward developing radar products that will contribute to a better understanding of airborne fauna.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS1997

Flood dependency of cottonwood establishment along the Missouri River, Montana, USA

Flow variability plays a central role in structuring the physical environment of riverine ecosystems. However, natural variability in flows along many rivers has been modified by water management activities. We quantified the relationship between flow and establishment of the dominant tree (plains cottonwood, Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera ) along one of the least hydrologically altered alluvial reaches of the Missouri River: Coal Banks Landing to Landusky, Montana. Our purpose was to refine our understanding of how local fluvial geomorphic processes condition the relationship between flow regime and cottonwood recruitment. We determined date and elevation of tree establishment and related this information to historical peak stage and discharge over a 112-yr hydrologic record. Of the excavated trees, 72% were established in the year of a flow >1400 m 3 /s (recurrence interval of 9.3 yr) or in the following 2 yr. Flows of this magnitude or greater create the necessary bare, moist establishment sites at an elevation high enough to allow cottonwoods to survive subsequent floods and ice jams. Almost all cottonwoods that have survived the most recent flood (1978) were established >1.2 m above the lower limit of perennial vegetation (active channel shelf). Most younger individuals were established between 0 and 1.2 m, and are unlikely to survive over the long term. Protection of riparian cottonwood forest along this National Wild and Scenic section of the Missouri River depends upon maintaining the historical magnitude, frequency, and duration of floods >1400 m 3 /s. Here, a relatively narrow valley constrains lateral channel movement that could otherwise facilitate cottonwood recruitment at lower flows. Effective management of flows to promote or maintain cottonwood recruitment requires an understanding of locally dominant fluvial geomorphic processes.

Montana↗
USGS2017

Using object-based image analysis to conduct high-resolution conifer extraction at regional spatial scales

The distribution and abundance of pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma, J. occidentalis ) trees (hereinafter, "pinyon-juniper") in sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of the Great Basin in the Western United States has increased substantially since the late 1800s. Distributional expansion and infill of pinyon-juniper into sagebrush ecosystems threatens the ecological function and economic viability of these ecosystems within the Great Basin, and is now a major contemporary challenge facing land and wildlife managers. Particularly, pinyon-juniper encroachment into intact sagebrush ecosystems has been identified as a primary threat facing populations of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereinafter, "sage-grouse"), which is a sagebrush obligate species. Even seemingly innocuous scatterings of isolated pinyon-juniper in an otherwise intact sagebrush landscape can negatively affect survival and reproduction of sage-grouse. Therefore, accurate and high-resolution maps of pinyon-juniper distribution and abundance (indexed by canopy cover) across broad geographic extents would help guide land management decisions that better target areas for pinyon-juniper removal projects (for example, fuel reduction, habitat improvement for sage-grouse, and other sagebrush species) and facilitate science that further quantifies ecological effects of pinyon-juniper encroachment on sage-grouse populations and sagebrush ecosystem processes . Hence, we mapped pinyon-juniper (referred to as conifers for actual mapping) at a 1 × 1-meter (m) high resolution across the entire range of previously mapped sage-grouse habitat in Nevada and northeastern California. We used digital orthophoto quad tiles from National Agriculture Imagery Program (2010, 2013) as base imagery, and then classified conifers using automated feature extraction methodology with the program Feature Analyst ™ . This method relies on machine learning algorithms that extract features from imagery based on their spectral and spatial signatures. We classified conifers in 6,230 tiles and then tested for errors of omission and commission using confusion matrices. Accuracy ranged from 79.1 to 96.8, with an overall accuracy of 84.3 percent across all mapped areas. An estimated accuracy coefficient (kappa) indicated substantial to nearly perfect agreement, which varied across mapped areas. For this mapping process across the entire mapping extent, four sets of products are available at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7348HVC , including (1) a shapefile representing accuracy results linked to mapping subunits; (2) binary rasters representing conifer presence or absence at a 1 × 1 m resolution; (3) a 30 × 30 m resolution raster representing percentages of conifer canopy cover within each cell from 0 to 100; and (4) 1 × 1 m resolution canopy cover classification rasters derived from a 50-m-radius moving window analysis. The latter two products can be reclassified in a geographic information system (GIS) into user-specified bins to meet different objectives, which include approximations for phases of encroachment. These products complement, and in some cases improve upon, existing conifer maps in the Western United States, and will help facilitate sage-grouse habitat management and sagebrush ecosystem restoration.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2002

Rocky road in the Rockies: Challenges to biodiversity

To people worldwide, the Rocky Mountains of the United States and Canada represent a last bastion of nature in its purest and rawest form-unspoiled forests teeming with elk and deer stalked by mountain lions and grizzly bears; bald eagles nesting near lakes and rivers; fat, feisty native trout in rushing mountain streams; and dazzling arrays of wildflowers in lush meadows. In fact, the total biodiversity of the Rocky Mountains is considerable, with relatively high diversity in birds, mammals, butterflies, reptiles, and conifers (Ricketts et al. 1999) and with geographic variation in the flora and fauna of alpine, forest, foothill, and adjacent shortgrass prairie and shrub communities over more than 20 degrees of latitude and more than 10' of longitude. Although the biodiversity of most North American regions has declined because of anthropogenic influences, the perception remains that the biodiversity of the Rocky Mountains is intact. This view exists in part because the Rocky Mountains are remote from urban centers, in part because so much of the land comprises protected areas such as national parks and wilderness areas, and in part because of wishful thinking-that nothing bad could happen to the biodiversity that is so much a part of the history, national self-image, legends, nature films, and movies of the United States and Canada. Despite modern technology and the homogenization and globalization of their cities and towns, at heart North Americans still regard their land as the New World, with pristine nature and untamed landscapes epitomized by the Rockies. The reality is that the biodiversity of the Rocky Mountains has not been free of anthropogenic influences since the West was settled in the 1800s, and in fact it was altered by Native Americans for centuries prior to settlement. A number of escalating problems and consequences of management choices are currently changing Rocky Mountain ecological communities at a dizzying pace. In Order to maintain some degree of natural ecosystem processes and preserve natural biodiversity in light of these challenges, Americans and Canadians are faced with the need for intensive, hands-on management of both ecosystems and selected plant and animal populations. In this chapter, we first discuss the primary issues regarding the biodiversity of the Rocky Mountains, including the Rocky Mountain portions of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, British Columbia, and Alberta. Next, we survey groups of organisms to examine their status and special problems. Finally, we touch on major challenges to biodiversity that loom in the near future. Given that entire books may be written on these issues, the discussion is brief and general, but with case histories for more detailed examples.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

Evaluating an improved systems approach to wetland crediting: Consideration of wetland ecosystem services

The Chesapeake Bay Agreement (CBA) has numerous direct goals for improving habitat, living resources, and water quality, conserving lands, engaging communities and addressing a changing climate. To date, the progress toward the wetlands outcome (creation/ restoration of 85,000 acres and enhancement of 150,000 acres) has been very slow and the outcome is projected to be off course for 2025. Two specific confounding issues arise in efforts to achieve the Bay wetlands goal: 1) the idea that restoration is driven, and incentivized and accounted for, in order to meet the TMDL’s water quality (WQ) benefits, leaving habitat benefits undervalued; and 2) there is often tension between competing restoration priorities and financial resources among different Best Management Practice (BMP) types that include wetlands, such as wetland restoration/creation/rehabilitation, stream restoration, and the creation or restoration of forest buffers. The collaborative workshop “ Evaluating an Improved Systems Approach to Wetland Crediting: Consideration of Wetland Ecosystem Services ” was held March 22-23, 2022 to explore the wetland accounting system and provide insight on improved approaches to promote wetland projects toward the wetlands outcome. Four sessions were organized around topics of 1) Accounting, 2) Landscape Systems Approach, 3) Wetlands Projects and Co-Benefits, and 4) Management Implications and Recommendation Development with 21 presentations, Q and A and facilitated discussions. Acknowledgement of the limitations of the current management framework to achieve significant gains in wetland area supports the conclusion that absent significant adaptive management of wetlands efforts, any outcome for net wetlands gains beyond 2025 will be similarly confounded. Workshop findings included suggestions for how to approach restoration projects at a systems level (e.g., creek, shoreline reach, watershed) in order to maximize synergies for multiple ecological outcomes and ecosystem services. Recommendations for improvement on existing efforts, as well as new processes, tools and partnerships are suggested from the workshop’s analysis of the state of the science as considerations to increase implementation of wetlands projects.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2017

An expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)

Red tides (blooms of the harmful alga Karenia brevis ) are one of the major sources of mortality for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ), especially in southwest Florida. It has been hypothesized that the frequency and severity of red tides may increase in the future because of global climate change and other factors. To improve our ecological forecast for the effects of red tides on manatee population dynamics and long-term persistence, we conducted a formal expert judgment process to estimate probability distributions for the frequency and relative magnitude of red-tide-related manatee mortality (RTMM) events over a 100-year time horizon in three of the four regions recognized as manatee management units in Florida. This information was used to update a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee (the Core Biological Model). We convened a panel of 12 experts in manatee biology or red-tide ecology; the panel met to frame, conduct, and discuss the elicitation. Each expert provided a best estimate and plausible low and high values (bounding a confidence level of 80 percent) for each parameter in each of three regions (Northwest, Southwest, and Atlantic) of the subspecies’ range (excluding the Upper St. Johns River region) for two time periods (0−40 and 41−100 years from present). We fitted probability distributions for each parameter, time period, and expert by using these three elicited values. We aggregated the parameter estimates elicited from individual experts and fitted a parametric distribution to the aggregated results. Across regions, the experts expected the future frequency of RTMM events to be higher than historical levels, which is consistent with the hypothesis that global climate change (among other factors) may increase the frequency of red-tide blooms. The experts articulated considerable uncertainty, however, about the future frequency of RTMM events. The historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM (combined) in the Southwest region was 0.35 (80-percent confidence interval [CI]: 0.21−0.52), whereas the forecast probability was 0.48 (80-percent CI: 0.30−0.64) over a 40-year projected time horizon. Moderate and intense RTMM events are expected to continue to be most frequent in the Southwest region, to increase in mean frequency in the Northwest region (historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM events [combined] in the Northwest region was 0, whereas the forecast probability was 0.12 [80-percent CI: 0.02−0.39] over a 40-year projected time horizon) and in the Atlantic region (historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM events [combined] in the Atlantic region was 0.05 [80-percent CI: 0.005–0.18], whereas the forecast probability was 0.11 [80-percent CI: 0.03−0.25] over a 40-year projected time horizon), and to remain absent from the Upper St. Johns River region. The impact of red-tide blooms on manatee mortality has been measured for the Southwest region but not for the Northwest and Atlantic regions, where such events have been rare. The expert panel predicted that the median magnitude of RTMM events in the Atlantic and Northwest regions will be much smaller than that in the Southwest; given the large uncertainties, however, they acknowledged the possibility that these events could be larger in their mortality impacts than in the Southwest region. By its nature, forecasting requires expert judgment because it is impossible to have empirical evidence about the future. The large uncertainties in parameter estimates over a 100-year timeframe are to be expected and may also indicate that the training provided to panelists successfully minimized one common pitfall of expert judgment, that of overconfidence. This study has provided useful and needed inputs to the Florida manatee population viability analysis associated with an important and recurrent source of mortality from harmful algal blooms.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Microbiome assembly in thawing permafrost and its feedbacks to climate

The physical and chemical changes that accompany permafrost thaw directly influence the microbial communities that mediate the decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter, leading to uncertainty in permafrost–climate feedbacks. Although changes to microbial metabolism and community structure are documented following thaw, the generality of post-thaw assembly patterns across permafrost soils of the world remains uncertain, limiting our ability to predict biogeochemistry and microbial community responses to climate change. Based on our review of the Arctic microbiome, permafrost microbiology, and community ecology, we propose that Assembly Theory provides a framework to better understand thaw-mediated microbiome changes and the implications for community function and climate feedbacks. This framework posits that the prevalence of deterministic or stochastic processes indicates whether the community is well-suited to thrive in changing environmental conditions. We predict that on a short timescale and following high-disturbance thaw (e.g., thermokarst), stochasticity dominates post-thaw microbiome assembly, suggesting that functional predictions will be aided by detailed information about the microbiome. At a longer timescale and lower-intensity disturbance (e.g., active layer deepening), deterministic processes likely dominate, making environmental parameters sufficient for predicting function. We propose that the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to post-thaw microbiome assembly depends on the characteristics of the thaw disturbance, as well as characteristics of the microbial community, such as the ecological and phylogenetic breadth of functional guilds, their functional redundancy, and biotic interactions. These propagate across space and time, potentially providing a means for predicting the microbial forcing of greenhouse gas feedbacks to global climate change.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2009

After the disaster: The hydrogeomorphic, ecological, and biological responses to the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens caused instantaneous landscape disturbance on a grand scale. On 18 May 1980, an ensemble of volcanic processes, including a debris avalanche, a directed pyroclastic density current, voluminous lahars, and widespread tephra fall, abruptly altered landscape hydrology and geomorphology, and created distinctive disturbance zones having varying impacts on regional biota. Response to the geological and ecological disturbances has been varied and complex. In general, eruption-induced alterations in landscape hydrology and geomorphology led to enhanced stormflow discharge and sediment transport. Although the hydrological response to landscape perturbation has diminished, enhanced sediment transport persists in some basins. In the nearly 30 years since the eruption, 350 million (metric) tons of suspended sediment has been delivered from the Toutle River watershed to the Cowlitz River (roughly 40 times the average annual preeruption suspended-sediment discharge of the Columbia River). Such prodigious sediment loading has wreaked considerable socioeconomic havoc, causing significant channel aggradation and loss of flood conveyance capacity. Significant and ongoing engineering efforts have been required to mitigate these problems. The overall biological evolution of the eruption-impacted landscape can be viewed in terms of a framework of survivor legacies. Despite appearances to the contrary, a surprising number of species survived the eruption, even in the most heavily devastated areas. With time, survivor “hotspots” have coalesced into larger patches, and have served as stepping stones for immigrant colonization. The importance of biological legacies will diminish with time, but the intertwined trajectories of geophysical and biological successions will influence the geological and biological responses to the 1980 eruption for decades to come.

Washington↗
USGS2026

Severity and certainty metric for kelp stressors: A tool for research, management, and conservation

Foundation species face multiple threats, and many are in decline worldwide. Kelps are no exception, with declines documented throughout their range. Stressors such as warming, eutrophication, and reduced water quality—often linked to human activities—are well recognized, yet their relative severity and certainty have not been systematically evaluated. Such a framework may aid scientific, regulatory, and conservation organizations in prioritizing actions and decision making. Here we build on a conceptual model of stressors to kelp in the Salish Sea by rating stressor severity and scientific certainty. We convened a panel of regional kelp experts to perform the rating exercise for two canopy taxa, Nereocystis luetkeana and Macrocystis tenuifolia , as well as a grouping for understory species, including both the sporophyte (adult) and gametophyte (juvenile) life stages for these algae. Our process produced a rich dataset which can be separated by stressor, taxa, and life stage allowing for broad applications. The panel identified temperature, low nutrients, and substrate change/benthic sedimentation as the most severe stressors to kelp, with relatively high certainty for most taxa. Certainty scores were relatively high for Nereocystis and Macrocystis sporophytes but were considerably lower for understory species and the gametophyte life stage, for most stressors, highlighting research gaps. Our data set could be applied for management prioritization, setting ecological baselines, and spatial modeling exercises. We encourage scientific, regulatory, and conservation organizations to consider both our data and our process when evaluating their needs. As foundation species continue to face threats, exercises such as this can provide scientists and managers with actionable indices that support strategies to stem degradation.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2013

Great Lakes rivermouths: a primer for managers

Between the North American Great Lakes and their tributaries are the places where the confluence of river and lake waters creates a distinct ecosystem: the rivermouth ecosystem. Human development has often centered around these rivermouths, in part, because they provide a rich array of ecosystem services. Not surprisingly, centuries of intense human activity have led to substantial pressures on, and alterations to, these ecosystems, often diminishing or degrading their ecological functions and associated ecological services. Many Great Lakes rivermouths are the focus of intense restoration efforts. For example, 36 of the active Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) are rivermouths or areas that include one or more rivermouths. Historically, research of rivermouth ecosystems has been piecemeal, focused on the Great Lakes proper or on the upper reaches of tributaries, with little direct study of the rivermouth itself. Researchers have been divided among disciplines, agencies and institutions; and they often work independently and use disparate venues to communicate their work. Management has also been fragmented with a focus on smaller, localized, sub-habitat units and socio-political or economic elements, rather than system-level consideration. This Primer presents the case for a more holistic approach to rivermouth science and management that can enable restoration of ecosystem services with multiple benefits to humans and the Great Lakes ecosystem. A conceptual model is presented with supporting text that describes the structures and processes common to all rivermouths, substantiating the case for treating these ecosystems as an identifiable class. 1 Ecological services provided by rivermouths and changes in how humans value those services over time are illustrated through case studies of two Great Lakes rivermouths—the St. Louis River and the Maumee River. Specific ecosystem services are identified in italics throughout this Primer and follow definitions described by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Table1). Collectively, this primer synthesizes existing information in a new way that aims to support management of rivermouths as distinct and important ecosystems. The development and management decisions made around rivermouths today will shape the future of these ecosystems, and the human communities within them, well into the future. 1 The information presented in this paper was derived from discussions and draft documents of the Great Lakes Rivermouth Collaboratory. The Great Lakes Rivermouth Collaboratory was established by the U.S. Geological Survey's Great Lakes Science Center (USGS-GLSC) in collaboration with the Great Lakes Commission to engage the Great Lakes scientific community in sharing and documenting knowledge about freshwater rivermouth ecosystems. For more information, see http://www.glc.org/habitat/Rivermouth-Collaboratory.html.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2021

Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales

Analyses of transient dynamics are critical to understanding infectious disease transmission and persistence. Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks. Moreover, greater emphases on non-asymptotic processes will enable timely evaluations of wildlife and human diseases and lead to improved surveillance efforts, preventive responses, and intervention strategies. Here, we explore the contributions of transient analyses in recent models spanning the fields of epidemiology, movement ecology, and parasitology. In addition to their roles in predicting epidemic patterns and endemic outbreaks, we explore transients in the contexts of pathogen transmission, resistance, and avoidance at various scales of the ecological hierarchy. Examples illustrate how (i) transient movement dynamics at the individual host level can modify opportunities for transmission events over time; (ii) within-host energetic processes often lead to transient dynamics in immunity, pathogen load, and transmission potential; (iii) transient connectivity between discrete populations in response to environmental factors and outbreak dynamics can affect disease spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection. Ultimately, we suggest that transient analyses offer deeper insights and raise new, interdisciplinary questions for disease research, consequently broadening the applications of dynamical models for outbreak preparedness and management.

Theoretical Ecology↗
USGS2017

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why ); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how ); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who ); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what ). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human–environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2023

Climate change risks to freshwater subsistence fisheries in Arctic Alaska: Insights and uncertainty from broad whitefish Coregonus nasus

Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fish populations are largely shaped by seasonal and long-term watershed hydrology. In this paper, we hypothesize how changing air temperature and precipitation will alter freeze and thaw processes, hydrology, and instream habitat to assess potential indirect effects, such as the change to the foraging and behavioral ecology, on Arctic fishes, using Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus as an indicator species. Climate change is expected to continue to alter hydrologic pathways, flow regimes, and, therefore, habitat suitability, connectivity, and availability for fishes. Warming and lengthening of the growing season will likely increase fish growth rates; however, the exceedance of threshold stream temperatures will likely increase physiological stress and alter life histories. We expect these changes to have mixed effects on Arctic subsistence fishes and fisheries. Management and conservation approaches focused on preserving the processes that create heterogeneity in aquatic habitats, genes, and communities will help maintain the resilience of Broad Whitefish and other important subsistence fisheries. Long-term effects are uncertain, so filling scientific knowledge gaps, such as identifying important habitats or increasing knowledge of abiotic variables in priority watersheds, is key to understanding and potentially mitigating likely impacts to Arctic fishes in a rapidly changing landscape.

Alaska↗