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USGS2021

Directional selection shifts trait distributions of planted species in dryland restoration

The match between species trait values and local abiotic filters can restrict community membership. An often-implicit assumption of this relationship is that abiotic filters select for a single locally optimal strategy, though difficulty in isolating effects of the abiotic environment from those of dispersal limitation and biotic interactions has resulted in few empirical tests of this assumption. Similar constraints have made it difficult to assess whether the type and intensity of abiotic filters shift along gradients of environmental harshness, as predicted by the stress-dominance hypothesis. We planted 9,216 plants of 29 perennial grass and forb species that had a range of functional trait values and were assigned to a warm, intermediate or cool temperature tolerance pool across eight sites on the Colorado Plateau. We compared the distributions of traits of surviving individuals to null distributions to evaluate whether there were shifts in trait means and variation. Borrowing from phenotypic selection concepts in evolutionary biology, we assessed support for stabilizing, directional and disruptive abiotic filtering of trait distributions and whether these types of filtering varied with initial species pool. Functional composition was significantly different from null distributions for nearly all traits at all sites, with trait variation more restricted in harsher abiotic conditions, supporting the stress-dominance hypothesis. Contrary to expectations, we primarily found evidence for directional selection, which increased in frequency in warm species pools while disruptive selection was found more often in cool and intermediate species pools. Synthesis . This study provides a controlled experimental approach to test the effect of the abiotic environment on plant trait filtering. We found that opportunistic strategies allowing for rapid water acquisition during favourable periods improved survival at warmer sites. Species with these strategies may be expected to benefit from increasing aridity and may be selected for active management efforts. More generally, the prevalence of directional selection may have important implications for dynamic vegetation models that rely on trait distributions for translating environmental variation into ecosystem processes.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2014

Modeling regeneration responses of big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) to abiotic conditions

Ecosystems dominated by big sagebrush, Artemisia tridentata Nuttall (Asteraceae), which are the most widespread ecosystems in semiarid western North America, have been affected by land use practices and invasive species. Loss of big sagebrush and the decline of associated species, such as greater sage-grouse, are a concern to land managers and conservationists. However, big sagebrush regeneration remains difficult to achieve by restoration and reclamation efforts and there is no regeneration simulation model available. We present here the first process-based, daily time-step, simulation model to predict yearly big sagebrush regeneration including relevant germination and seedling responses to abiotic factors. We estimated values, uncertainty, and importance of 27 model parameters using a total of 1435 site-years of observation. Our model explained 74% of variability of number of years with successful regeneration at 46 sites. It also achieved 60% overall accuracy predicting yearly regeneration success/failure. Our results identify specific future research needed to improve our understanding of big sagebrush regeneration, including data at the subspecies level and improved parameter estimates for start of seed dispersal, modified wet thermal-time model of germination, and soil water potential influences. We found that relationships between big sagebrush regeneration and climate conditions were site specific, varying across the distribution of big sagebrush. This indicates that statistical models based on climate are unsuitable for understanding range-wide regeneration patterns or for assessing the potential consequences of changing climate on sagebrush regeneration and underscores the value of this process-based model. We used our model to predict potential regeneration across the range of sagebrush ecosystems in the western United States, which confirmed that seedling survival is a limiting factor, whereas germination is not. Our results also suggested that modeled regeneration suitability is necessary but not sufficient to explain sagebrush presence. We conclude that future assessment of big sagebrush responses to climate change will need to account for responses of regenerative stages using a process-based understanding, such as provided by our model.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2024

Cooperative conservation actions improve sage-grouse population performance within the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment

Developing a robust monitoring framework that integrates efficacy assessments of cooperative conservation and restoration actions in relation to population viability is critical for successful long-term recovery of target ecosystems and species. However, often it is difficult to quantify conservation action efficacy because of the complex, dynamic nature of ecosystem processes and practical limitations associated with assessing target species’ population dynamics. Here, we present an analytical framework that allows for quantification of conservation action efficacy using greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse) within the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment which borders Nevada and California. This framework utilizes web-based repositories of conservation efforts carried out in sagebrush ecosystems and readily fits within contemporary sagebrush conservation design strategies. We employed a state-space model within a Bayesian framework to estimate abundance (N) as inputs for a progressive change before-after-control-impact paired series (BACIPS) design. Count data from 57 leks (monitored between 2003–2021) coupled with 85 unique actions (initiated between 2012–2019) provided clear evidence that conservation actions increased population abundance, on average, by 4.4% annually across the study area, resulting in a 37.4% cumulative increase since 2012. Population gains varied by the type of conservation action and according to the number of lag years following its implementation.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2020

Social attraction used to establish Caspian tern nesting colonies in San Francisco Bay

Conservation of colonial waterbird breeding populations often includes restoring historic nesting habitat or establishing new nesting habitat in protected areas. However, colonization of new or restored nesting habitat may be hindered by the lack of social cues from nesting conspecifics to attract prospecting birds. Social attraction, whereby decoys and colony sound recordings are used to mimic active nesting colonies, has been used successfully to establish waterbird nesting colonies throughout the world. We constructed islands, modified the substrate so that it was attractive to nesting Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia), and then used social attraction to establish nesting colonies within two managed ponds in San Francisco Bay, California where Caspian terns had not previously nested. During the 2015–2017 breeding seasons, we deployed decoys of adult Caspian terns, broadcasted colony sound recordings, and monitored Caspian tern response. Caspian terns formed nesting colonies within weeks of social attraction deployment at each of the two ponds in 2015, and the size of these colonies increased in each subsequent year of the study. In 2017, the final year of the study, we estimated a minimum of 501 breeding pairs between the two colonies, making them two of the three largest Caspian tern colonies in the San Francisco Bay estuary. In total, these two colonies produced 1343 nests and 531 fledglings over the three-year study period. Nest densities were low (mean: 0.29 nests/m2 of active colony area) compared to other studies, and greater than 80% of the modified island habitat remained unused by nesting Caspian terns in 2017, suggesting that there is additional space for future colony growth. The successful establishment of two of the largest Caspian tern nesting colonies in the San Francisco Bay estuary in just three years demonstrates the potential of using island construction and habitat modifications, combined with social attraction measures to establish waterbird nesting colonies.

California↗

USGS2021

Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate

Grasslands, and the depressional wetlands that exist throughout them, are endangered ecosystems that face both climate and land-use change pressures. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to manage the existing fragments of these ecosystems to serve as critical breeding habitat for migratory birds. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a region that contains millions of depressional wetlands that produce between 50 and 80% of the continent’s waterfowl population and. Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR, an area where over half of the wetlands have been drained. The implications of these projections suggest a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR would be needed to sustain waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these modeled results indicating how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl-breeding habitat using up-to-date climate model projections and a newly developed model for simulating prairie-pothole wetland hydrology. We also presented changes to the number of “May ponds,” a metric used by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations and establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios, we found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds would shift in the future. However, our results projected a 17% decrease to 5% increase in May-pond numbers when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070–2099). When combined, our results suggest areas in the PPR that that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding-duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.

Prairie Potholes Region↗

USGS2011

Long-term effects of prescribed fire on mixed conifer forest structure in the Sierra Nevada, California

The capacity of prescribed fire to restore forest conditions is often judged by changes in forest structure within a few years following burning. However, prescribed fire might have longer-term effects on forest structure, potentially changing treatment assessments. We examined annual changes in forest structure in five 1 ha old-growth plots immediately before prescribed fire and up to eight years after fire at Sequoia National Park, California. Fire-induced declines in stem density (67% average decrease at eight years post-fire) were nonlinear, taking up to eight years to reach a presumed asymptote. Declines in live stem biomass were also nonlinear, but smaller in magnitude (32% average decrease at eight years post-fire) as most large trees survived the fires. The preferential survival of large trees following fire resulted in significant shifts in stem diameter distributions. Mortality rates remained significantly above background rates up to six years after the fires. Prescribed fire did not have a large influence on the representation of dominant species. Fire-caused mortality appeared to be spatially random, and therefore did not generally alter heterogeneous tree spatial patterns. Our results suggest that prescribed fire can bring about substantial changes to forest structure in old-growth mixed conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada, but that long-term observations are needed to fully describe some measures of fire effects.

California↗

USGS2011

Soil carbon sequestration potential for "grain for green" project in Loess Plateau, China

Conversion of cropland into perennial vegetation land can increase soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation, which might be an important mitigation measure to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The “Grain for Green” project, one of the most ambitious ecological programmes launched in modern China, aims at transforming the low-yield slope cropland into grassland and woodland. The Loess Plateau in China is the most important target of this project due to its serious soil erosion. The objectives of this study are to answer three questions: (1) what is the rate of the SOC accumulation for this “Grain for Green” project in Loess Plateau? (2) Is there a difference in SOC sequestration among different restoration types, including grassland, shrub and forest? (3) Is the effect of restoration types on SOC accumulation different among northern, middle and southern regions of the Loess Plateau? Based on analysis of the data collected from the literature conducted in the Loess Plateau, we found that SOC increased at a rate of 0.712 TgC/year in the top 20 cm soil layer for 60 years under this project across the entire Loess Plateau. This was a relatively reliable estimation based on current data, although there were some uncertainties. Compared to grassland, forest had a significantly greater effect on SOC accumulation in middle and southern Loess Plateau but had a weaker effect in the northern Loess Plateau. There were no differences found in SOC sequestration between shrub and grassland across the entire Loess Plateau. Grassland had a stronger effect on SOC sequestration in the northern Loess Plateau than in the middle and southern regions. In contrast, forest could increase more SOC in the middle and southern Loess Plateau than in the northern Loess Plateau, whereas shrub had a similar effect on SOC sequestration across the Loess Plateau. Our results suggest that the “Grain for Green” project can significantly increase the SOC storage in Loess Plateau, and it is recommended to expand grassland and shrub areas in the northern Loess Plateau and forest in the middle and southern Loess Plateau to enhance the SOC sequestration in this area.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2018

Evaluating and monitoring forest fuel treatments using remote sensing applications in Arizona, U.S.A.

The practice of fire suppression across the western United States over the past century has led to dense forests, and when coupled with drought has contributed to an increase in large and destructive wildfires. Forest management efforts aimed at reducing flammable fuels through various fuel treatments can help to restore frequent fire regimes and increase forest resilience. Our research examines how different fuel treatments influenced burn severity and post-fire vegetative stand dynamics on the San Carlos Apache Reservation, in east-central Arizona, U.S.A. Our methods included the use of multitemporal remote sensing data and cloud computing to evaluate burn severity and post-fire vegetation conditions as well as statistical analyses. We investigated how forest thinning, commercial harvesting, prescribed burning, and resource benefit burning (managed wildfire) related to satellite measured burn severity (the difference Normalized Burn Ratio – dNBR) following the 2013 Creek Fire and used spectral measures of post-fire stand dynamics to track changes in land surface characteristics (i.e., brightness, greenness and wetness). We found strong negative relationships between dNBR and post-fire greenness and wetness, and a positive non-linear relationship between dNBR and brightness, with greater variability at higher severities. Fire severity and post-fire surface changes also differed by treatment type. Our results showed harvested and thinned sites that were not treated with prescribed fire had the highest severity fire. When harvesting was followed by a prescribed burn, the sites experienced lower burn severity and reduced post-fire changes in vegetation greenness and wetness. Areas that had previously experienced resource benefit burns had the lowest burn severities and the highest post-fire greenness measurements compared to all other treatments, except for where the prescribed burn had occurred. These results suggest that fire treatments may be most effective at reducing the probability of hazardous fire and increasing post-fire recovery. This research demonstrates the utility of remote sensing and spatial data t o inform forest management, and how various fuel treatments can influence burn severity and post-fire vegetation response within ponderosa pine forests across the southwestern U.S.

Arizona↗

USGS2019

The hydrologic benefits of wetland and prairie restoration in western Minnesota—Lessons learned at the Glacial Ridge National Wildlife Refuge, 2002–15

Conversion of agricultural lands to wetlands and native prairie is widely viewed as beneficial because it can restore natural ecological and hydrologic functions. Some of these functions, such as reduced peak flows and improved water quality, are often attributed to restoration; however, such benefits have not been quantified at a small scale. To inform future restoration efforts, especially in northern prairie settings, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Red Lake Watershed District, compared the hydrology of the Nation’s largest wetland and prairie restoration, Glacial Ridge National Wildlife Refuge, before and after restoration. Wetland and prairie restorations resulted in substantial changes in flows through the hydrologic cycle, in reduction of overland runoff and ditch flow during storms, and in improvements in water quality. Wetland and prairie restorations within the six basins characterized in this study resulted in a 14-percent decrease of cropland, a 6-percent increase of wetlands, and a 19-percent increase of native prairie between 2002 and 2015. During the same period, runoff rate decreased 33 percent (as a proportion of precipitation) and ditch flow rate decreased by 23 percent. Areal groundwater recharge rate increased from 30 to 35 percent (16 percent relative change in flow rate). Base flow as a proportion of total ditch flow increased from 25 to 35 percent (a 40-percent relative change). Peak ditch flow from storms decreased, ditch-flow recessions lengthened, and base flow from groundwater discharge increased, though only a small amount in some basins. These changes reduce the amount of ditch water leaving the study area, reducing flows that contribute to downstream flooding. Median surficial groundwater and ditch-water nitrate concentrations decreased by 79 and 53 percent, respectively. Median ditch-water suspended-sediment concentration decreased by 64 percent. Neither the density of restorations nor the beneficial changes in hydrology were evenly distributed in the study area. The amount of hydrologic benefits within an individual ditch basin did not relate directly with the amount of restoration in that basin; however, the landscape characteristics that related most closely with hydrologic benefits were the area of a basin underlain by a surficial aquifer and the area of drained wetlands (indicating the potential for wetland restoration). In western Minnesota, the basins underlain by surficial aquifers that contain large areas of drained wetlands are the uplands of the Alexandria Moraine Complex and the beaches of glacial Lake Agassiz on the eastern side of the western one-third of Minnesota, north of Wilmar, Minnesota. These findings provide resource managers with information that can help focus restoration resources in areas where the greatest hydrologic benefits can be realized.

Minnesota↗

USGS2023

Monitoring of wave, current, and sediment dynamics along the Chincoteague living shoreline, Virginia

Nature-based features, also called living shorelines, are increasingly applied in coastal protection and restoration. However, the processes and mechanisms (feedbacks and interactions) of wave attenuation, current velocity change, and sediment deposition and erosion along the living shoreline remain unclear, thus limiting the adaptive management of living shoreline restoration projects for coastal shoreline resilience under future storm conditions. In this study, wave, current, and sediment dynamics along the Little Toms Cove living shoreline, Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia, a low wave energy environment, were investigated during a 2-month winter period in 2019 to examine the effects of living shoreline structures on shoreline protection and oyster habitat enhancement. It was found that wave attenuation by the living shoreline structures (oyster castles or constructed oyster reefs) is dependent on water depth, wind speed, wind direction, and local bathymetry. Analysis of observed data indicate that the oyster castles along the Little Toms Cove living shoreline play a limited role in wave attenuation in this low wave energy environment. During the 2-month winter period, wave energy was attenuated by 39.7 percent when oyster castles were emergent or slightly submerged with southwest winds. In contrast, when the oyster castles were fully submerged, wave energy behind the oyster castles increased by 38.6 percent. The construction of oyster castles affected circulation patterns with increase or decrease in velocity at nearshore waters protected by the castles depending on locations of measurements in relation to the oyster castles. Bottom shear stress analysis indicates that tidal currents play a larger role than waves on shoreline and marsh edge erosion along the Little Toms Cove shoreline during the 2 months of field monitoring. The oyster castles protecting the marsh edge and tidal flat from erosion resulted in higher fine sediment concentration in the water column landward of the castles because more sediment was retained in the lee side of the castles. It is important to maximize sediment within the wetlands and adjacent mudflats behind the oyster castles. Erosion from the marsh edge and interior serves as the major source of sediment for this wetland system due to the limited sediment supply in Assateague Channel. Furthermore, it was found that the oyster castles along the Little Toms Cove living shoreline were inundated more than 60 percent of the time, leading to the enhanced oyster habitat as evidenced by suitable velocity (less than 10 centimeters per second) and mean grain size (less than 0.08 millimeters) for oyster feeding and the increased oyster shell density and growth in the intertidal zone protected by the castles than in the control area. More field data (for example, concurrent monitoring of sediment concentration and salinity) over other seasons (for example, summer) could help examine the long term and combined engineering and ecological benefits of living shoreline restoration projects under seasonal and enhanced future storm conditions.

Virginia↗

USGS2024

Response of corvid nest predators to thinning: implications for balancing short- and long-term goals for restoration of forest habitat

Forest thinning on public lands in the Pacific Northwest USA is an important tool for restoring diversity in forest stands with a legacy of simplified structure from decades of intensive management for timber production. A primary application of thinning in young (< 50-year-old) stands is to accelerate forest development to mitigate loss of late-seral habitat to decades of logging. However, thinning may have short-term negative effects for some species associated with mature forest that are expected to benefit from the practice over the long term. An increased risk of nest predation is a primary concern to managers charged with stewardship of habitat for the federally threatened Marbled Murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ), a species that nests in older forests. Predation by corvids is the greatest cause of nest failure for the Marbled Murrelet, and corvids are known to respond positively to forest disturbance, but quantitative information is lacking on the potential impacts of thinning on risk of nest predation. We investigated the response of two common corvid nest predators, Steller’s Jay ( Cyanocitta stelleri ) and Canada Jay ( Perisoreus canadensis ), to variation in thinning intensity in young forest (< 50 years old) using data from a long-term silviculture experiment. We used a Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) design, linear mixed modeling, and occupancy modeling to quantify differences in corvid observation rates among varying levels of thinning intensity, and to assess changes in jay response over more than a decade following thinning. We found an increase in observation rates of both species in the heavily thinned treatment during the first 5 to 7 years following thinning, and some evidence of a short-term increase in Steller’s Jay activity in the thinning-with-gaps treatment. Neither jay species responded to the least intensive thinning treatment, which reduced average canopy cover by < 30%. By approximately a decade after thinning, observation rates of jays did not differ between unthinned controls and any of the thinning treatments. Incorporating our quantitative information into landscape-level planning can help managers balance short- and long-term conservation goals.

Oregon↗

USGS2002

Development of oak plantations established for wildlife

Extensive areas that are currently in agricultural production within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley are being restored to bottomland hardwood forests. Oaks (Quercus sp.), sown as seeds (acorns) or planted as seedlings, are the predominant trees established on most afforested sites. To compare stand development and natural invasion on sites afforested by planting seedlings or by sowing acorns, we sampled woody vegetation on ten 14- to 18-year-old oak plantations established to provide wildlife habitat. Stem densities of about 900 oaks/ha were comparable between stands established by sowing 4000 acorns/ha and stands established by planting 900 seedlings/ha. Densities of oaks in stands established from seedlings increased 38% from densities detected when these stands were 4- to 8-year-old. Densities of oaks established from field-sown acorns increased >100% during this same 10-year span. Oaks that were planted as seedlings were larger than those established from acorns, but trees resulting from either afforestation method were larger than trees naturally colonizing these sites. Natural invasion of woody species varied greatly among afforested sites, but was greater and more diverse on sites sown with acorns. Afforested stands were dominated by planted species, whereas naturally invading species were rare among dominant canopy trees. When afforestation objectives are primarily to provide wildlife habitat, we recommend, sowing acorns rather than planting seedlings. Additionally, planting fewer seeds or seedlings, diversifying the species planted, and leaving non-planted gaps will increase diversity of woody species and promote a more complex forest structure that enhances the suitability of afforested sites for wildlife.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2007

Using conservation value to assess land restoration and management alternatives across a degraded oak savanna landscape

1. Managers considering restoration of landscapes often face a fundamental challenge - what should be the habitat composition of the restored landscape? We present a method for evaluating an important conservation trade-off inherent in making that decision. 2. Oak savannas and grasslands were historically widespread across central North America but are now rare. Today, in north-west Indiana, USA, habitats spanning a range of woody vegetation density, from nearly treeless open habitats to forests, occur across the conserved landscape where savannas probably once dominated. To understand the benefits of different potential landscape compositions, we evaluated how different proportions of five habitats - open, savanna, woodland, scrub and forest - might affect the conservation value of the north-west Indiana landscape for birds. Two variables of potential conservation importance were examined: species diversity, a measure of avian community richness, and conservation index, the percentage of a bird species' global population occurring on a hectare of landscape, summed across all bird species present. Higher values of conservation index were associated with higher local densities of globally more rare and more threatened species. 3. Conservation index and species diversity were correlated negatively across hypothetical landscapes composed of different proportions of the five habitats. Therefore, a management trade-off existed between conservation index and species diversity because landscapes that maximized species diversity differed from landscapes that maximized conservation index. 4. A landscape of 50% open, 22% savanna, 15% scrub and 13% forest was predicted to represent a compromise at which conservation index and species diversity reached the same percentage of their maxima. In contrast, the current landscape is dominated by forest. 5. Synthesis and applications. We quantified the trade-off between two potential aspects of a landscape's conservation value for birds - the landscape's ability to promote avian species diversity and the landscape's use by threatened avian species. This quantification allowed us to evaluate the ability of different landscape compositions to achieve preferable trade-off compromises, such as maximizing diversity for a given level of landscape use by threatened species. Managers can use these trade-off results to determine which landscape compositions are associated with particular conservation and management priorities.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2017

Altitudinal migration and the future of an iconic Hawaiian honeycreeper in response to climate change and management

Altitudinal movement by tropical birds to track seasonally variable resources can move them from protected areas to areas of increased vulnerability. In Hawaiʻi, historical reports suggest that many Hawaiian honeycreepers such as the ‘I‘iwi ( Drepanis coccinea ) once undertook seasonal migrations, but the existence of such movements today is unclear. Because Hawaiian honeycreepers are highly susceptible to avian malaria, currently minimal in high-elevation forests, understanding the degree to which honeycreepers visit lower elevation forests may be critical to predict the current impact of malaria on population dynamics and how susceptible bird populations may respond to climate change and mitigation scenarios. Using radio telemetry data, we demonstrate for the first time that a large fraction of breeding adult and juvenile ‘I‘iwi originating from an upper-elevation (1,920 m) population at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge exhibit post-breeding movements well below the upper elevational limit for mosquitoes. Bloom data suggest seasonal variation in floral resources is the primary driver of seasonal movement for ‘I‘iwi. To understand the demographic implications of such movement, we developed a spatial individual-based model calibrated using previously published and original data. ʻI‘iwi dynamics were simulated backward in time, to estimate population levels in the absence of avian malaria, and forward in time, to assess the impact of climate warming as well as two potential mitigation actions. Even in disease-free ‘refuge’ populations, we found that breeding densities failed to reach the estimated carrying capacity, suggesting the existence of a seasonal “migration load” as a result of travel to disease-prevalent areas. We predict that ‘I‘iwi may be on the verge of extinction in 2100, with the total number of pairs reaching only ~ 0.2–12.3% of the estimated pre-malaria density, based on an optimistic climate change scenario. The probability of extinction of ‘I‘iwi populations, as measured by population estimates for 2100, is strongly related to their estimated migration propensity. Long-term conservation strategies likely will require a multi-pronged response including a reduction of malaria threats, habitat restoration and continued landscape-level access to seasonally variable nectar resources.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2022

A biological condition gradient for coral reefs in the US Caribbean Territories: Part I. Coral narrative rules

As coral reef condition and sustainability continue to decline worldwide, losses of critical habitat and their ecosystem services have generated an urgency to understand and communicate reef response to management actions, environmental contamination, and natural disasters. Increasingly, coral reef protection and restoration programs emphasize the need for robust assessment tools for protecting high-quality waters and establishing conservation goals. Of equal importance is the need to communicate assessment results to stakeholders, beneficiaries, and the public so that environmental consequences of decisions are understood. The Biological Condition (BCG) model provides a structure to evaluate the condition of a coral reef in increments of change along a gradient of human disturbance. Communication of incremental change, regardless of direction, is important for decision makers and the public to better understand what is gained or lost depending on what actions are taken. We developed a narrative (qualitative) Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) from the consensus of a diverse expert panel to provide a framework for coral reefs in US Caribbean Territories. The model uses narrative descriptions of biological attributes for benthic organisms to evaluate reefs relative to undisturbed or minimally disturbed conditions. Using expert elicitation, narrative decision rules were proposed and deliberated to discriminate among six levels of change along a gradient of increasing anthropogenic stress. Narrative rules for each of the BCG levels are presented to facilitate the evaluation of benthic communities in coral reefs and provide specific narrative features to detect changes in coral reef condition and biological integrity. The BCG model can be used in the absence of numeric, or quantitative metrics, to evaluate actions that may encroach on coral reef ecosystems, manage endangered species habitat, and develop and implement management plans for marine protected areas, watersheds, and coastal zones. The narrative BCG model is a defensible model and communication tool that translates scientific results so the nontechnical person can understand and support both regulatory and non-regulatory water quality and natural resource programs.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

USGS2011

Migration delays caused by anthropogenic barriers: modeling dams, temperature, and success on migrating salmon smolts

Disruption to migration is a growing problem for conservation and restoration of animal populations. Anthropogenic barriers along migration paths can delay or prolong migrations, which may result in a mismatch with migration-timing adaptations. To understand the interaction of dams (as barriers along a migration path), seasonally changing environmental conditions, timing of Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) downstream migration, and ultimate migration success, we used 10 years of river temperature and discharge data as a template upon which we simulated downstream movement of salmon. Atlantic salmon is a cool-water species whose downstream migrating smolts must complete migration before river temperatures become too warm. We found that dams had a local effect on survival as well as a survival effect that was spatially and temporally removed from the encounter with the dam. While smolts are delayed by dams, temperatures downstream can reach lethal or near-lethal temperatures; as a result, the match between completion of migration and the window of appropriate migration conditions can be disrupted. The strength of this spatially and temporally removed effect is at least comparable to the local effects of dams in determining smolt migration success in the presence of dams. We also considered smolts from different tributaries, varying in distance from the river mouth, to assess the potential importance of locally adapted migration timing on the effect of barriers. Migration-initiation temperature affected modeled smolt survival differentially across tributaries, with the success of smolts from upstream tributaries being much more variable across years than that of smolts with a shorter distance to travel. As a whole, these results point to the importance of broadening our spatial and temporal view when managing migrating populations. We must consider not only how many individuals never make it across migration barriers, but also the spatially and temporally removed consequences of delays at the barriers for those individuals that successfully navigate them.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2017

Mapping tree canopy cover in support of proactive prairie grouse conservation in western North America

Invasive woody plant expansion is a primary threat driving fragmentation and loss of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) and prairie habitats across the central and western United States. Expansion of native woody plants, including conifer (primarily Juniperus spp.) and mesquite ( Prosopis spp.), over the past century is primarily attributable to wildfire suppression, historic periods of intensive livestock grazing, and changes in climate. To guide successful conservation programs aimed at reducing top-down stressors, we mapped invasive woody plants at regional scales to evaluate landscape level impacts, target restoration actions, and monitor restoration outcomes. Our overarching goal was to produce seamless regional products across sociopolitical boundaries with resolution fine enough to depict the spatial extent and degree of woody plant invasion relevant to greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) conservation efforts. We mapped tree canopy cover at 1-m spatial resolution across an 11-state region (508 265 km 2 ). Greater than 90% of occupied lesser prairie-chicken habitat was largely treeless for conifers (< 1% canopy cover), whereas > 67% was treeless for mesquite. Conifers in the higher canopy cover classes (16 − 50% and > 50% canopy cover) were scarce (< 2% and 1% canopy cover), as was mesquite (< 5% and 1% canopy cover). Occupied habitat by sage-grouse was more variable but also had a relatively large proportion of treeless areas ( x − "> x− = 71, SE = 5%). Low to moderate levels of conifer cover (1 − 20%) were fewer ( x − "> x− = 23, SE = 5%) as were areas in the highest cover class (> 50%; x − "> x− = 6, SE = 2%). Mapping indicated that a high proportion of invading woody plants are at a low to intermediate level. Canopy cover maps for conifer and mesquite resulting from this study provide the first and most geographically complete, high-resolution assessment of woody plant cover as a top-down threat to western sage-steppe and prairie ecosystems.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2022

Wetland occupancy by duck broods in cropland-dominated landscapes of the United States Prairie Pothole Region

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is globally important for breeding waterfowl but has been altered via wetland drainage and grassland conversion to accommodate agricultural land use. Thus, understanding the ecology of waterfowl in these highly modified landscapes is essential for their conservation. Brood occurrence is the cumulative outcome of key life-history events including pair formation and territory establishment, nest success, and early brood survival. We applied new technological advances in brood surveying methods to understand brood use of wetlands and how land use and wetland-specific factors influenced brood use of 413 wetlands in crop-dominated landscapes in the PPR of Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, USA, during summers of 2018–2020. Dynamic occupancy models combining information from 2 visits throughout the year revealed no difference among the 4 states or between private and public lands, resulting in a region-wide annual wetland occupancy estimate of 0.41 (95% credible interval [CrI] = 0.26, 0.58). We assessed aquatic invertebrate forage availability, wetland and upland vegetation communities, and various water chemistry metrics in a subset ( n = 225) of these wetlands to evaluate how landscape and wetland-specific factors influenced occupancy. The amount of grassland surrounding wetlands was the only variable to influence occupancy at a landscape scale, while wetland size, invertebrates, fish, and vegetation communities influenced occupancy at finer scales. Closer scrutiny of wetland area revealed occupancy was greater in small wetlands after controlling for total wetland area. Our results indicate the greatest constraint on brood occupancy across crop-dominated landscapes of the PPR in the United States was the occurrence of semipermanent wetlands suitable for brood rearing. Other factors, such as wetland vegetation or surrounding land use, had minor intervening influences on duck brood use and ducks were distributed invariant of wetland ownership or broad spatial processes occurring among states. These results demonstrated wetland conservation and restoration strategies are likely to yield gains in annual duck broods across this vast, altered, and highly modified landscape.

Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗