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At least 901 records · Page 50Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Nutrient budgets, marsh inundation under sea-level rise scenarios, and sediment chronologies for the Bass Harbor Marsh estuary at Acadia National Park

Eutrophication in the Bass Harbor Marsh estuary on Mount Desert Island, Maine, is an ongoing problem manifested by recurring annual blooms of green macroalgae species, principally Enteromorpha prolifera and Enteromorpha flexuosa, blooms that appear in the spring and summer. These blooms are unsightly and impair the otherwise natural beauty of this estuarine ecosystem. The macroalgae also threaten the integrity of the estuary and its inherent functions. The U.S. Geological Survey and Acadia National Park have collaborated for several years to better understand the factors related to this eutrophication problem with support from the U.S. Geological Survey and National Park Service Water Quality Assessment and Monitoring Program. The current study involved the collection of hydrologic and water-quality data necessary to investigate the relative contribution of nutrients from oceanic and terrestrial sources during summer 2011 and summer 2012. This report provides data on nutrient budgets for this estuary, sedimentation chronologies for the estuary and fringing marsh, and estuary bathymetry. The report also includes data, based on aerial photographs, on historical changes from 1944 to 2010 in estuary surface area and data, based on surface-elevation details, on changes in marsh area that may accompany sea-level rise. The LOADEST regression model was used to calculate nutrient loads into and out of the estuary during summer 2011 and summer 2012. During these summers, tidal inputs of ammonium to the estuary were more than seven times greater than the combined inputs in watershed runoff and precipitation. In 2011 tidal inputs of nitrate were about four times greater than watershed plus precipitation inputs, and in 2012 tidal inputs were only slightly larger than watershed plus precipitation inputs. In 2011, tidal inputs of total organic nitrogen were larger than watershed input by a factor of 1.6. By contrast, in 2012 inputs of total organic nitrogen in watershed runoff were much larger than tidal inputs, by a factor of 3.6. During the 2011 and 2012 summers, tidal inputs of total dissolved phosphorus to the estuary were more than seven times greater than inputs in watershed runoff. It is evident that during the summer tidal inputs of inorganic nitrogen and total dissolved phosphorus to the estuary exceed inputs from watershed runoff and precipitation. Projected sea-level rise associated with ongoing climate warming will affect the area of land within the Bass Harbor Marsh estuary watershed that is inundated during conditions of mean higher high water and during mean lower low water and hence will affect the vegetation and marsh area. Given 100-centimeter sea-level rise, the inundated area would increase from 25.7 hectares at the current condition to 77.5 hectares at mean higher high water and from 21.6 hectares to 26.7 hectares at mean lower low water. Given 50-centimeter sea-level rise, flooding of the entire marsh surface, which currently occurs only under the highest spring tides, would occur on average every other day. Radioisotope analysis of sediment cores from the estuary indicates that the sediment accumulation rate increased markedly from 1930 to 1980 and was relatively constant (0.4 to 0.5 centimeter per year) from 1980 to 2009. Similarly, from 1980 to 2009 there was a consistently high mass accumulation rate of 0.09 to 0.11 grams per square centimeter per year. The sediment accretion rates determined for the five cores collected from the marsh surface (east and west sides of the estuary) in 2011 show generally higher rates of 0.20 to 0.29 centimeter per year for the period between 1980 to 2011 than for the period before 1980, when sediment accretion rates were 0.06 to 0.25 centimeter per year. The data in this report provide resource managers at Acadia National Park with a baseline that can be used to evaluate future conditions within the estuary. Climate change, sea-level rise, and land-use change within the estuary’s watershed may influence nutrient dynamics, sedimentation, and eutrophication, and these potential effects can be studied in relation to the baseline data provided in this report. The Route 102 Bridge in Tremont, Maine is constructed over a sill that controls the amount of tidal flushing by restricting the duration of the flood tide, and structural changes to the bridge could alter tidal nutrient inputs and residence times for watershed and ocean-derived nutrients in the estuary. Ongoing sea-level rise is likely increasing ocean-derived nutrients and their residence time in the estuary on the one hand and decreasing the residence time of watershed-derived nutrients on the other.

Maine↗
USGS2023

River geomorphology affects biogeochemical responses to hydrologic events in a large river ecosystem

Shifts in the frequency and intensity of high discharge events due to climate change may have important consequences for the hydrology and biogeochemistry of rivers. However, our understanding of event-scale biogeochemical dynamics in large rivers lags that of small streams. To fill this gap, we used high-frequency sensor data collected during four consecutive summers from a main channel and backwater site of the Upper Mississippi River. We identified high discharge events and calculated event concentration-discharge responses for both physical-chemical (nitrate, turbidity, and fluorescent dissolved organic matter) and biological (chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria) constituents using metrics of hysteresis and slope. We found a range of responses across events, particularly for nitrate. Although fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) and turbidity exhibited more consistent responses across events, contrasting hysteresis metrics indicated that FDOM was flushed to the river from more distant sources than turbidity. Biological responses (chlorophyll a and cyanobacteria) differed more between sites than physical and chemical constituents. Lastly, we found that the event characteristics best explaining concentration responses differed between sites, with event magnitude more frequently related to responses in the main channel, and antecedent wetness conditions associated with response variation in the backwater. Our results indicate that event responses in large rivers are distinct across the diverse habitats and biogeochemical components of a large floodplain river, which has implications for local and downstream ecosystems as the climate shifts.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Understanding and predicting infection dynamics for an endangered amphibian using long-term surveys of wild and translocated frogs

Amphibians are a prominent component of Earth's sixth mass extinction and the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a primary driver of declines. Although Bd dynamics are well studied, the environmental drivers, exacerbating risk factors, and value of conservation interventions like translocations remain challenging to predict. Here, we present results from two decades of Bd monitoring for mountain yellow-legged frogs ( Rana muscosa) in the southern California Transverse and Peninsular mountain ranges. We describe Bd prevalence and infection intensity across sites; model how variables associated with climate, habitat, and populations relate to prevalence; and integrate Bd data from wild and translocated frogs to test whether a machine learning system can predict infection prevalence at new sites. Our findings indicate substantial spatiotemporal variation in Bd dynamics. Bd was present at all sites but prevalence and infection intensities were often low. Environmental features including temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and shortwave radiation explained significant variation in Bd prevalence, but their predictive value varied across mountain ranges. Although clear environmental predictors across populations remain elusive, we provide evidence for the importance of warmer and wetter springs and winters, with implications of increased risk under climate change predictions. We also found evidence for higher Bd prevalence among translocated than wild frogs. Although our machine learning model predicted a Bd prevalence threshold with relatively high accuracy, understanding the factors driving within- and between-population Bd dynamics is complex. Taken together, our findings provide new insights into the complicated role of Bd in amphibian declines and suggest revised management approaches.

California↗
USGS2014

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2024

Net carbon sequestration implications of intensified timber harvest in Northeastern U.S. forests

U.S. forests, particularly in the eastern states, provide an important offset to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Some have proposed that forest-based natural climate solutions can be strengthened via a number of strategies, including increases in the production of forest biomass energy. We used output from a forest dynamics model (SORTIE-ND) in combination with a GHG accounting tool (ForGATE) to estimate the carbon consequences of current and intensified timber harvest regimes in the Northeastern United States. We considered a range of carbon pools including forest ecosystem pools, forest product pools, and waste pools, along with different scenarios of feedstock production for biomass energy. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which represents current harvest practices derived from the analysis of U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data, sequestered more net CO 2 equivalents than any of the intensified harvest and feedstock utilization scenarios over the next decade, the most important time period for combatting climate change. Increasing the intensity of timber harvest increased total emissions and reduced landscape average forest carbon stocks, resulting in reduced net carbon sequestration relative to current harvest regimes. Net carbon sequestration “parity points,” where the regional cumulative net carbon sequestration from alternate intensified harvest scenarios converge with and then exceed the BAU baseline, ranged from 12 to 40 years. A “no harvest” scenario provides an estimate of an upper bound on forest carbon sequestration in the region given the expected successional dynamics of the region's forests but ignores leakage. Regional net carbon sequestration is primarily influenced by (1) the harvest regime and amount of forest biomass removal, (2) the degree to which bioenergy displaces fossil fuel use, and (3) the proportion of biomass diverted to energy feedstocks versus wood products.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2009

Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO 2 and CH 4 . Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO 2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH 4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH 4 /yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon–climate modeling efforts.

Ecological Monographs↗
USGS2009

Long-duration drought variability and impacts on ecosystem services: A case study from Glacier National Park, Montana

Instrumental climate records suggest that summer precipitation and winter snowpack in Glacier National Park (Glacier NP), Montana, vary significantly over decadal to multidecadal time scales. Because instrumental records for the region are limited to the twentieth century, knowledge of the range of variability associated with these moisture anomalies and their impacts on ecosystems and physical processes are limited. The authors developed a reconstruction of summer (June–August) moisture variability spanning a.d. 1540–2000 from a multispecies network of tree-ring chronologies in Glacier NP. Decadal-scale drought and pluvial regimes were defined as any event lasting 10 yr or greater, and the significance of each potential regime was assessed using intervention analysis. Intervention analysis prevents single intervening years of average or opposing moisture conditions from ending what was otherwise a sustained moisture regime. The reconstruction shows numerous decadal-scale shifts between persistent drought and wet events prior to the instrumental period (before a.d. 1900). Notable wet events include a series of three long-duration, high-magnitude pluvial regimes spanning the end of the Little Ice Age ( a.d. 1770–1840). Though the late-nineteenth century was marked by a series of >10 yr droughts, the single most severe dry event occurred in the early-twentieth century ( a.d. 1917–41). These decadal-scale dry and wet events, in conjunction with periods of high and low snowpack, have served as a driver of ecosystem processes such as forest fires and glacial dynamics in the Glacier NP region. Using a suite of paleoproxy reconstructions and information from previous studies examining the relationship between climate variability and natural processes, the authors explore how such persistent moisture anomalies affect the delivery of vital goods and services provided by Glacier NP and surrounding areas. These analyses show that regional water resources and tourism are particularly vulnerable to persistent moisture anomalies in the Glacier NP area. Many of these same decadal-scale wet and dry events were also seen among a wider network of hydroclimatic reconstructions along a north–south transect of the Rocky Mountains. Such natural climate variability can, in turn, have enormous impacts on the sustainable provision of natural resources over wide areas. Overall, these results highlight the susceptibility of goods and services provided by protected areas like Glacier NP to natural climate variability, and show that this susceptibility will likely be compounded by the effects of future human-induced climate change.

Montana↗
USGS2025

Observing northern high-latitude river systems to understand changes in a warming Arctic

Purpose of Review Streams and rivers are undergoing rapid change as the Arctic warms and thaws. We review recent observations in Arctic stream systems to identify ubiquitous changes and the most useful tools for observing change and exploring the underlying processes. Recent Findings Recent literature indicates increasingly significant trends in river hydrology and chemistry due to persistent warming in the Arctic and longer observational records for analysis. However, regional differences in the magnitude and direction of these trends persist. We also observe thresholds in ground thaw and surface–groundwater interactions that can impact river hydrology and chemistry. Summary Warming and thaw are occurring rapidly at high latitudes, resulting in increasing, yet variable responses in stream systems across regions and scales. These differences highlight the need for long-term records and an interdisciplinary approach to explain trends and predict future states. Stream systems respond to multiple landscape changes related to hydrology (changing precipitation and subsurface flow), geology (ground thaw dynamics), and ecology (vegetation change).

Current Climate Change Reports↗
USGS2008

Climate-induced variations of geyser periodicity in Yellowstone National Park, USA

The geysers of Yellowstone National Park, United States, attract millions of visitors each year, and their eruption dynamics have been the subject of extensive research for more than a century. Although many of the fundamental aspects associated with the dynamics of geyser eruptions have been elucidated, the relationship between external forcing (Earth tides, barometric pressure, and precipitation) and geyser eruption intervals (GEIs) remains a matter of ongoing debate. We present new instrumental GEI data and demonstrate, through detailed time-series analysis, that geysers respond to both long-term precipitation trends and to the seasonal hydrologic cycle. Responsiveness to long-term trends is reflected by a negative correlation between the annual averages of GEIs and stream flow in the Madison River. This response is probably associated with long-term pressure changes in the underlying hydrothermal reservoir. We relate seasonal GEI lengthening to snowmelt recharge.

Geology↗
USGS2011

Global patterns of phytoplankton dynamics in coastal ecosystems

Scientific Committee on Ocean Research Working Group 137 Meeting; Hangzhou, China, 17-21 October 2010; Phytoplankton biomass and community structure have undergone dramatic changes in coastal ecosystems over the past several decades in response to climate variability and human disturbance. These changes have short- and long-term impacts on global carbon and nutrient cycling, food web structure and productivity, and coastal ecosystem services. There is a need to identify the underlying processes and measure the rates at which they alter coastal ecosystems on a global scale. Hence, the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR) formed Working Group 137 (WG 137), "Global Patterns of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Coastal Ecosystems: A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Observations" (http://wg137.net/). This group evolved from a 2007 AGU-sponsored Chapman Conference entitled "Long Time-Series Observations in Coastal Ecosystems: Comparative Analyses of Phytoplankton Dynamics on Regional to Global Scales.".

Conference Paper↗
USGS2011

Timing of seasonal migration in mule deer: effects of climate, plant phenology, and life-history characteristics

Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, allowed us to document patterns of migration during 11 years that encompassed a wide array of environmental conditions. We used two new techniques to properly account for interval-censored data and disentangle effects of broad-scale climate, local weather patterns, and plant phenology on seasonal patterns of migration, while incorporating effects of individual life-history characteristics. Timing of autumn migration varied substantially among individual deer, but was associated with the severity of winter weather, and in particular, snow depth and cold temperatures. Migratory responses to winter weather, however, were affected by age, nutritional condition, and summer residency of individual females. Old females and those in good nutritional condition risked encountering severe weather by delaying autumn migration, and were thus risk-prone with respect to the potential loss of foraging opportunities in deep snow compared with young females and those in poor nutritional condition. Females that summered on the west side of the crest of the Sierra Nevada delayed autumn migration relative to east-side females, which supports the influence of the local environment on timing of migration. In contrast, timing of spring migration was unrelated to individual life-history characteristics, was nearly twice as synchronous as autumn migration, differed among years, was related to the southern oscillation index, and was influenced by absolute snow depth and advancing phenology of plants. Plasticity in timing of migration in response to climatic conditions and plant phenology may be an adaptive behavioral strategy, which should reduce the detrimental effects of trophic mismatches between resources and other life-history events of large herbivores. Failure to consider effects of nutrition and other life-history traits may cloud interpretation of phenological patterns of mammals and conceal relationships associated with climate change.

California↗
USGS2023

Upscaling wetland methane emissions from the FLUXNET-CH4 Eddy Covariance Network (UpCH4 v1.0): Model development, network assessment, and budget comparison

Wetlands are responsible for 20%–31% of global methane (CH 4 ) emissions and account for a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget. Data-driven upscaling of CH 4 fluxes from eddy covariance measurements can provide new and independent bottom-up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. Here, we develop a six-predictor random forest upscaling model (UpCH4), trained on 119 site-years of eddy covariance CH 4 flux data from 43 freshwater wetland sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 Community Product. Network patterns in site-level annual means and mean seasonal cycles of CH 4 fluxes were reproduced accurately in tundra, boreal, and temperate regions (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ∼0.52–0.63 and 0.53). UpCH4 estimated annual global wetland CH 4 emissions of 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 y −1 for 2001–2018 which agrees closely with current bottom-up land surface models (102–181 TgCH 4 y −1 ) and overlaps with top-down atmospheric inversion models (155–200 TgCH 4 y −1 ). However, UpCH4 diverged from both types of models in the spatial pattern and seasonal dynamics of tropical wetland emissions. We conclude that upscaling of eddy covariance CH 4 fluxes has the potential to produce realistic extra-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions estimates which will improve with more flux data. To reduce uncertainty in upscaled estimates, researchers could prioritize new wetland flux sites along humid-to-arid tropical climate gradients, from major rainforest basins (Congo, Amazon, and SE Asia), into monsoon (Bangladesh and India) and savannah regions (African Sahel) and be paired with improved knowledge of wetland extent seasonal dynamics in these regions. The monthly wetland methane products gridded at 0.25° from UpCH4 are available via ORNL DAAC ( https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2253 ).

AGU Advances↗
USGS2023

Ecological effects of pinyon-juniper removal in the Western United States—A synthesis of scientific research, January 2014–March 2021

Executive Summary Increasing density of pinyon ( Pinus spp. ) and juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (hereinafter “pinyon-juniper”), as well as expansion of these woodlands into adjacent shrublands and grasslands, has altered ecosystem function and wildlife habitat across large areas of the interior western United States. Although there are many natural and human-caused drivers of woodland infilling and expansion, restoration of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. ) habitat through removal of pinyon-juniper is considered an urgent management objective in many locations, particularly in support of sagebrush-dependent wildlife species of conservation concern. In December 2020, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) established the Pinyon-Juniper Management Categorical Exclusion (PJCX) to expedite the regulatory process for pinyon-juniper removal projects on public lands, largely intended to benefit mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitats. During final preparation of this report, the BLM discontinued use of the PJCX (as of November, 2022), but the pinyon-juniper tree removal techniques assessed in this report are commonly used and understanding their effects remains relevant to land use planning. To address areas of uncertainty relative to potential ecological effects of the PJCX, we conducted a review of the peer-reviewed science literature to better understand the likely responses of vegetation, environmental (for example, soils), and wildlife variables to specific tree removal techniques permitted by the PJCX. In brief, the PJCX permitted removal of trees by either manual cutting, mechanical cutting, or mastication; allowed certain methods to redistribute or remove resulting tree biomass after treatment; and prohibited broadcast burning, roadbuilding, removal of old-growth, and seeding of non-native species. Specifically, we conducted our review to address the following questions: How will PJCX removal techniques affect plant communities, soils, and abiotic resources? How do these pinyon-juniper removal techniques affect wildlife communities, including both woodland- and sagebrush-dependent species? What are the potential ecological implications of different pinyon-juniper removal treatment types and implementation strategies (for example, treatment sizes) over time? What are the most important gaps in our scientific understanding of how treatments might affect targeted ecosystems over space and time (for example, potential effects of climate change)? To answer these questions, we considered studies related to pinyon-juniper ecosystems, focusing on research that occurred over a large portion of the interior western United States that is the primary focus of the PJCX. We also focused on papers published from 2014 onward, to avoid excessive overlap with other recent reviews on pinyon-juniper management effects. Using strict criteria, including only considering research that tested responses for statistical significance, we identified 48 papers that primarily examined treatment effects on vegetation and other environmental variables (1,709 responses), and 11 papers that addressed effects on wildlife (132 responses). Responses to the PJCX-permitted treatments were summarized as either positive (that is, a significant increase), negative (that is, a significant decrease), or non-significant (that is, no significant difference). Responses were assigned to categories (for example, Native Annual Grass/Forb Abundance) and hierarchical treatment levels. We found that there were large proportions of non-significant responses among all categories combined, with roughly half or more of all responses non-significant (48 percent for wildlife, 60 percent for vegetation-environmental), comparable to other recent systematic reviews of pinyon-juniper treatment effects. However, we also found that when there were significant responses, some important trends potentially emerged. Important undesirable outcomes included far more positive than negative responses of exotic grass and forb abundance among nearly all treatment types. Cutting treatments were also more likely to decrease biocrust cover and microbial activity. Potentially beneficial outcomes included mostly positive responses among sagebrush obligate species, including more positive than negative responses for mule deer and sage-grouse. Some treatment types (for example, mastication) also resulted in more positive than negative responses for native grasses and forbs (although, non-significant responses were the majority). We also highlighted many limitations of this review, including how responses often come from few studies, and how some response-treatment category combinations lack adequate response data. Moreover, the existing research is often insufficient to address many key questions about treatment effects, largely owing to short time-scales and limited spatial extents of observations, which do not match the size of treatments being implemented by land managers, nor capture long-term, post-treatment ecological dynamics. We also identify a lack of research that addresses key interactions that could undermine restoration objectives, including potential effects of climate change and grazing on post-treatment environments. Thus, we emphasize the importance of integrating these factors into future pinyon-juniper treatment research, and we stress the need for use of monitoring programs and research studies that partake in data collection and analysis over long durations and broad spatial scales.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Does the stress-gradient hypothesis hold water? Disentangling spatial and temporal variation in plant effects on soil moisture in dryland systems

The nature of the relationship between water limitation and facilitation has been one of the most contentious debates surrounding the stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH), which states that plant-plant interactions shift from competition to facilitation with increasing environmental stress. We take a closer look at the potential role of soil moisture in mediating plant-plant interaction outcomes by assessing effects of climate and soil texture on plant modulation of soil moisture. Using an empirically-parameterized soil moisture model, we simulated soil moisture dynamics beneath shrubs and in un-vegetated coarse and fine soils for 1000 sites in the Western United States with <700 mm mean annual precipitation. This threshold reflects the transition from dryland (<600 mm precipitation) to mesic ecosystems. Positive effects of shrubs on shallow soil moisture (i.e. the difference between shrub and interspace soil moisture) decreased along the aridity gradient when long-term average conditions were considered, contrary to expectations based on the SGH. Negative effects of shrubs on deeper soil moisture also increased with aridity. However, when extreme years were considered, positive effects of shrub on soil moisture were greatest at intermediate points along the spatial aridity gradient, consistent with a hump-backed model of plant-plant interactions. When viewed through time within a site, shrub effects on shallow soil moisture were positively related to precipitation, with more complex relationships exhibited in deeper soils Taken together, the results of this simulation study suggest that plant effects on soil moisture are predictable based on relatively general relationships between precipitation inputs and differential evaporation and transpiration rates between plant and interspace microsites that are largely driven by temperature. In particular, this study highlights the importance of differentiating between temporal and spatial variation in weather and climate, respectively, in determining plant effects on available soil moisture. Rather than focusing on the somewhat coarse-scale predictions of the SGH, it may be more beneficial to explicitly incorporate plant effects on soil moisture into predictive models of plant-plant interaction outcomes in drylands.

Functional Ecology↗
USGS2002

Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series

The analysis of univariate or multivariate time series provides crucial information to describe, understand, and predict climatic variability. The discovery and implementation of a number of novel methods for extracting useful information from time series has recently revitalized this classical field of study. Considerable progress has also been made in interpreting the information so obtained in terms of dynamical systems theory. In this review we describe the connections between time series analysis and nonlinear dynamics, discuss signal- to-noise enhancement, and present some of the novel methods for spectral analysis. The various steps, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of these methods, are illustrated by their application to an important climatic time series, the Southern Oscillation Index. This index captures major features of interannual climate variability and is used extensively in its prediction. Regional and global sea surface temperature data sets are used to illustrate multivariate spectral methods. Open questions and further prospects conclude the review.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2021

The trajectory of soil development and its relationship to soil carbon dynamics

It has been postulated that the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) associated with soil minerals exhibits a threshold relationship in response to effective soil moisture (estimated as precipitation less evapotranspiration). To better characterize the role of moisture in influencing mechanisms of SOC storage during pedogenesis, we compare soils from two different chronosequence sites: the Santa Cruz and Mattole River marine terraces that together form a soil age-by-climate gradient (i.e., climo-chronosequence). Our results demonstrate how variation in the effective soil moisture may drive soil development along divergent pedogenic trajectories, resulting in variations in the form and depth distribution of secondary weathering products. In particular, the residual metals Fe and Al are directly related to the type of secondary minerals that accumulate during weathering, and these variations are coupled to differences in the storage and long-term preservation of SOC both within and between soils. Over time, these differences in soil development may lead to ‘pedogenic thresholds’ that further differentiate soil characteristics and influence SOC dynamics. In this case, the pedogenic threshold takes the form of clay-rich argillic horizons that once formed, inhibit aqueous transport, decouple shallow and deep soil environments, and potentially limit SOC inputs and increase microbial recycling in deep soils. Our data suggest argillic horizon development is favorable in the drier Santa Cruz soils, where kaolinite is the dominant secondary weathering product. In contrast, greater available moisture in soils of the Mattole chronosequence drive a different weathering trajectory characterized by the accumulation of more amorphous secondary minerals. As a result, the Mattole soils and do not exhibit argillic horizon development but are instead characterized by greater accumulation of SOC across all depths sampled. Overall, our results illustrate how the interaction of climate (i.e., moisture) and time may shape the trajectory of soil development and the dynamics of SOC storage and preservation.

California↗
USGS2016

Influence of demography and environment on persistence in toad populations

Effective conservation of rare species requires an understanding of how potential threats affect population dynamics. Unfortunately, information about population demographics prior to threats (i.e., baseline data) is lacking for many species. Perturbations, caused by climate change, disease, or other stressors can lead to population declines and heightened conservation concerns. Boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) have undergone rangewide declines due mostly to the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), with only a few sizable populations remaining in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, that are disease-free. Despite the apparent region-wide occurrence of Bd, our focal populations in central Colorado were disease free over a 14-year capture-mark-recapture study until the recent discovery of Bd at one of the sites. We used recapture data and the Pradel reverse-time model to assess the influence of environmental and site-specific conditions on survival and recruitment. We then forecast changes in the toad populations with 2 growth models; one using an average lambda value to initiate the projection, and one using the most recent value to capture potential effects of the incursion of disease into the system. Adult survival was consistently high at the 3 sites, whereas recruitment was more variable and markedly low at 1 site. We found that active season moisture, active season length, and breeding shallows were important factors in estimating recruitment. Population growth models indicated a slight increase at 1 site but decreasing trends at the 2 other sites, possibly influenced by low recruitment. Insight into declining species management can be gained from information on survival and recruitment and how site-specific environmental factors influence these demographic parameters. Our data are particularly useful because they provide baseline data on demographics in populations before a disease outbreak and enhance our ability to detect changes in population parameters potentially caused by the disease.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2021

Shifts in the wintering distribution and abundance of Emperor Geese in Alaska

For wildlife species that winter at northern latitudes, harsh overwinter conditions can play an important role in population dynamics. Recent changes in global temperatures have resulted in distributional shifts of wildlife species, as well as amelioration of winter climates in northern landscapes. The emperor goose ( Anser canagicus ), an endemic migratory bird of the Bering Sea region, winters across a large area of the subarctic, with potential differences in migration strategies and costs among individuals. As a long-standing species of conservation concern due to decreased population size, understanding the response of emperor geese to changing conditions has become critical to on-going management. We sought to evaluate changes in wintering distribution and arrival/departure dates over time, by comparing spatial and temporal patterns of wintering emperor geese from 2015 to 2017 (using geolocator data) to satellite telemetry data collected from 1999 to 2004. Further, we quantified changes in spatial patterns of winter abundance by comparing historical and contemporary aerial and ground surveys at three island complexes encompassing most of their winter distribution. Our results indicate that emperor geese are arriving at wintering areas earlier and spending more time at these areas than in the past. Our comparisons among historical aerial and ground surveys suggests that increasing numbers of emperor geese are wintering closer to breeding areas in western Alaska; a change likely related to increasing habitat availability due to shifting environmental conditions. Our results also showed that fewer emperor geese are using an area in the core of their wintering range, suggesting either decreased habitat quality or a reduction in migration distance via alternative wintering locations. Overall, our study highlights a rapid response to apparent habitat change likely due to warming temperatures and a reduction in ice cover and emphasizes the importance of understanding complex interactions among migration distance, the environment, and habitat in interpreting site selection.

Alaska↗