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USGS2022

Testing assumptions in the use of PIT tags to study movement of Plethodon salamanders

Studying the movements of organisms that live underground for at least a portion of their life history is challenging, given the state of current technology. Passive integrated transponders (PIT tags) provide a way to individually identify and, more recently, study the movement of smaller animals, including those that make subterranean movements. However, there are widespread assumptions of the use of PIT tags that remain problematic. We tested the effects of PIT-tag implantation on growth and survival, along with the effects of electromagnetic fields for reading PIT tags on behavior, of the smallest salamander that has been PIT-tagged: the Red-Backed Salamander. We found no effect of PIT tags on growth or survival. Using a mesocosm experiment, we also found that electromagnetic effects associated with reading PIT tags, had no effect on salamander behavior. Further, we describe a novel PIT antenna and soil mesocosm experimental arena for studying belowground movements of woodland salamanders. Collectively, these studies suggest that the use of PIT tags do not influence the growth, survival, or behavior of Red-Backed Salamanders. Given the challenges of studying salamanders that live underground and the impending changes in climate and landscapes, this research suggests that PIT tags remain a viable tool for studying the movement ecology of salamanders under global change.

Journal of Herpetology↗

USGS2019

Characteristics of feeding sites of California Condors (Gymnogyps californianus) in the human-dominated landscape of Southern California

Wildlife conservation is often improved by understanding the movement ecology of species and adapting management strategies to dynamic conditions associated with movement. Despite a remarkable recovery over the past 30 year, the establishment of self-sustaining populations of California Condors (Gymnogyps californianus) has been challenging in the human-dominated landscapes of southern California. Among these challenges are those imposed by condor ground-foraging behavior that exposes them to environmental contamination. These include lead poisoning from the ingestion of spent ammunition and micro-trash ingestion and, during takeoff and landing, collisions with human structures. We tracked 28 California Condors for 24 months with patagially mounted GPS telemetry units to investigate the characteristics of ground sites condors visited and to identify spatiotemporal trends that might aid in conservation of this critically endangered species. Ground sites occurred on a wide variety of land cover types, primarily on steep slopes, and those more frequently used were associated with open cover. Condors concentrated their visits to ground sites around a 3 h period near midday, and usage increased from winter to late summer. Our study is the first to use remotely sensed telemetry data to describe fine-scale ecological correlates of condor ground-foraging ecology and therefore has important relevance for ongoing conservation and management strategies for this species. The descriptions of ground sites we provide can be used to target conservation or management actions.

California↗

USGS2019

GLASS3: A standalone multi-scale seismic detection associator

The automated global real-time association of phase picks into seismic sources comes with unique challenges when simultaneously monitoring at local, regional and global scales. High spatial variability in seismic station density, transitory seismic data availability, and time-varying noise characteristics of individual stations must be considered in the design of an associator that is fast and accurate with a low false association rate. These challenges are particularly apparent at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), which monitors seismicity in near-real time on local, regional, and global scales using seismic data from roughly 2,100 real-time seismic stations. In order to fully leverage this large dataset, NEIC developed a stand-alone, self-configuring seismic phase associator, GLASS3 (GLobal ASSociator 3) that simultaneously processes variably scaled 3D association webs, each with a unique set of nucleation criteria (e.g., nucleation stack threshold). GLASS3 has many useful features for real-time monitoring including its computational efficiency, instantaneous pick processing, and on-the-fly configurability such as the creation and removal of targeted association webs and updates to supporting station metadata. GLASS3 runs both as part of a real-time event processing system, and as a configurable standalone associator that can be applied to a large variety of seismic problems. Here we describe the GLASS3 algorithm and demonstrate (including input data and configuration files) its use in associating phase-ambiguous picks on multiple scales.

BSSA↗

USGS2016

Afterslip behavior following the M6.0, 2014 South Napa earthquake with implications for afterslip forecasting on other seismogenic faults

The M6.0, 24 Aug. 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake exhibited unusually large slip for a California strike-slip event of its size with a maximum coseismic surface slip of 40-50 cm in the north section of the 15 km-long rupture. Although only minor (<10 cm) surface slip occurred coseismically in the southern 9-km section of the rupture, there was considerable postseismic slip, so that the maximum total slip one year after the event approached 40-50 cm, about equal to the coseismic maximum in the north. We measured the accumulation of postseismic surface slip on four, ~100-m-long alignment arrays for one year following the event. Because prolonged afterslip can delay reconstruction of fault-damaged buildings and infrastructure, we analyzed its gradual decay to estimate when significant afterslip would likely end. This forecasting of Napa afterslip suggests how we might approach the scientific and engineering challenges of afterslip from a much larger M~7 earthquake anticipated on the nearby, urban Hayward Fault. However, we expect its afterslip to last much longer than one year.The M6.0, 24 Aug. 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake exhibited unusually large slip for a California strike-slip event of its size with a maximum coseismic surface slip of 40-50 cm in the north section of the 15 km-long rupture. Although only minor (<10 cm) surface slip occurred coseismically in the southern 9-km section of the rupture, there was considerable postseismic slip, so that the maximum total slip one year after the event approached 40-50 cm, about equal to the coseismic maximum in the north. We measured the accumulation of postseismic surface slip on four, ~100-m-long alignment arrays for one year following the event. Because prolonged afterslip can delay reconstruction of fault-damaged buildings and infrastructure, we analyzed its gradual decay to estimate when significant afterslip would likely end. This forecasting of Napa afterslip suggests how we might approach the scientific and engineering challenges of afterslip from a much larger M~7 earthquake anticipated on the nearby, urban Hayward Fault. However, we expect its afterslip to last much longer than one year.

California↗

USGS2026

Making many out of one: Synthetic geologic deformation model distributions for use in USGS NSHM25‐PRVI Puerto Rico-U.S. Virgin Island update

A key use‐case of geologic slip rates is within deformation models used in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Field‐derived geologic slip rates have formed the cornerstone of deformation models in such applications for decades. Recent advancements in seismic hazard analyses have expanded the use of faults for which geologic slip rates are not well constrained using categorical slip rate estimates. Because of these advancements, application of a geologic deformation model for use in 2025 U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model Puerto Rico‐U.S. Virgin Islands (NSHM25‐PRVI) proved challenging due to: (1) a lack of field‐based geologic slip rates, and (2) a lack of epistemic uncertainty distributions within a broad range of estimated slip rates. Preliminary versions of the NSHM25‐PRVI model sampled these slip rate bins in a coincident manner along preferred and extreme value branches, which yielded untenable correlations in mean hazard results. To minimize the influence of correlated uncertainties amid these challenges, we develop a synthetic epistemic uncertainty distribution for deformation rate on each crustal fault. Each fault has a weighting schema across four possible distribution shapes: uniform, normal, triangular favoring local minima, and triangular favoring local maxima. The synthetic distributions are then sampled several times for each logic tree branch. The results provide a more realistic distribution of rates across the study region as compared with using correlated extrema sampling. This exploration of our method in a small region like PRVI can pave the way for larger‐scale, more complicated applications (e.g., western United States).

Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands↗

USGS2026

The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT): Advancing understanding of Cascadia's earthquake hazards

The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) is capable of producing large megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis, posing significant risks to the Pacific Northwest. This paper examines the seismic characteristics of the CSZ, including its offshore coupling, sparse seismicity, and a complex paleoseismic record. While recent advances in geophysical methods and data collection have improved our understanding of subduction zone processes, important uncertainties remain regarding rupture dynamics, ground shaking, and tsunami impacts. The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) has been established to address these challenges through coordinated research, education, and community engagement. By integrating scientific studies, fostering collaboration, and leveraging new technologies, CRESCENT seeks to improve hazard assessment and resilience in the region. This paper outlines the primary challenges and opportunities in advancing subduction zone science and enhancing societal preparedness for future CSZ events.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2026

Preface to the focus section on intraplate earthquakes

More than a half century after plate tectonics provided an overarching framework to explain earthquakes along active plate boundaries, numerous theories have been proposed to explain where, why, and how often earthquakes occur well away from active plate boundaries, but a paradigm remains elusive. Even the classification of earthquakes away from active plate boundaries as "intraplate" raises issues, with potentially important distinctions between Stable Continental Regions and more actively deforming regions including passive margins and failed rifts. Some of the largest known intraplate earthquakes themselves remain enigmatic, having occurred before the modern instrumental era. Hazard assessments are often data-limited: low fault-slip rates relative to landscape modification rates result in poor discoverability of fault sources, challenging the characterization of source zones and earthquake recurrence; the completeness and homogenization of instrumental earthquake catalogs using uncertain magnitude conversions can lead to uncertainties in earthquake recurrence; and, limited strong-motion observations for large-magnitude events at near-source distances leads to uncertainties in the selection and development of ground-motion models for seismic hazard studies. Data from recent intraplate earthquakes around the world—from the moment magnitude M 7.7 2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake 25 years ago to the 2024 M 4.8 Tewksbury, New Jersey earthquake—have yielded both new insights and new questions. The papers in this special focus discuss many of the long-standing challenges involved with intraplate earthquake investigations and provide a snapshot of the state of the art with current research to advance our understanding.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2013

Analysis and simulation of regional subsidence accompanying groundwater abstraction and compaction of susceptible aquifer systems in the USA

Regional aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence accompanying groundwater abstraction in susceptible aquifer systems in the USA is a challenge for managing groundwater resources and mitigating associated hazards. Developments in the assessment of regional subsidence provide more information to constrain analyses and simulation of aquifer-system compaction. Current popular approaches to simulating vertical aquifer-system deformation (compaction), such as those embodied in the aquitard drainage model and the MODFLOW subsidence packages, have proven useful from the perspective of regional groundwater resources assessment. However, these approaches inadequately address related local-scale hazards-ground ruptures and damages to engineered structures on the land surface arising from tensional stresses and strains accompanying groundwater abstraction. This paper presents a brief overview of the general approaches taken by the U.S. Geological Survey toward understanding aquifer-system compaction and subsidence with regard to a) identifying the affected aquifer systems; b) making regional assessments; c) analyzing the governing processes; and d) simulating historical and future groundwater flow and subsidence conditions. Limitations and shortcomings of these approaches, as well as future challenges also are discussed.

Boletín de la Sociedad Geológica Mexicana↗

USGS2007

Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty

We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2010

On the specification of structural equation models for ecological systems

The use of structural equation modeling (SEM) is often motivated by its utility for investigating complex networks of relationships, but also because of its promise as a means of representing theoretical concepts using latent variables. In this paper, we discuss characteristics of ecological theory and some of the challenges for proper specification of theoretical ideas in structural equation models (SE models). In our presentation, we describe some of the requirements for classical latent variable models in which observed variables (indicators) are interpreted as the effects of underlying causes. We also describe alternative model specifications in which indicators are interpreted as having causal influences on the theoretical concepts. We suggest that this latter nonclassical specification (which involves another variable type—the composite) will often be appropriate for ecological studies because of the multifaceted nature of our theoretical concepts. In this paper, we employ the use of meta‐models to aid the translation of theory into SE models and also to facilitate our ability to relate results back to our theories. We demonstrate our approach by showing how a synthetic theory of grassland biodiversity can be evaluated using SEM and data from a coastal grassland. In this example, the theory focuses on the responses of species richness to abiotic stress and disturbance, both directly and through intervening effects on community biomass. Models examined include both those based on classical forms (where each concept is represented using a single latent variable) and also ones in which the concepts are recognized to be multifaceted and modeled as such. To address the challenge of matching SE models with the conceptual level of our theory, two approaches are illustrated, compositing and aggregation. Both approaches are shown to have merits, with the former being preferable for cases where the multiple facets of a concept have widely differing effects in the system and the latter being preferable where facets act together consistently when influencing other parts of the system. Because ecological theory characteristically deals with concepts that are multifaceted, we expect the methods presented in this paper will be useful for ecologists wishing to use SEM.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2011

Cougar space use and movements in the wildland-urban landscape of western Washington

The wildland-urban interface lies at the confluence of human-dominated and wild landscapes, creating a number of management and conservation challenges. Because wildlife ecology, behavior, and evolution at this interface are shaped by both natural and human phenomena, this requires greater understanding of how diverse factors affect ecosystem and population processes. We illustrate the challenge of understanding and managing a frequent and often undesired inhabitant of the wildland-urban landscape, the cougar (Puma concolor). In wildland and residential areas of western Washington State, USA, we captured and radiotracked 27 cougars to model space use and understand the role of landscape features in interactions (sightings, encounters, and depredations) between cougars and humans. Resource utilization functions (RUFs) identified cougar use of areas with features that were probably attractive to prey, influential on prey vulnerability, and associated with limited or no residential development. Early-successional forest (+), conifer forest (+), distance to road (-), residential density (-), and elevation (-) were significant positive and negative predictors of use for the population, whereas use of other landscape features was highly variable. Space use and movement rates in wildland and residential areas were similar because cougars used wildland-like forest patches, reserves, and corridors in residential portions of their home range. The population RUF was a good predictor of confirmed cougar interactions, with 72% of confirmed reports occurring in the 50% of the landscape predicted to be medium-high and high cougar use areas. We believe that there is a threshold residential density at which the level of development modifies the habitat but maintains enough wildland characteristics to encourage moderate levels of cougar use and maximize the probability of interaction. Wildlife managers trying to reduce interactions between cougars and people should incorporate information on spatial ecology and landscape characteristics to identify areas with the highest overlap of human and cougar use to focus management, education, and landscape planning. Resource utilization functions provide a proactive tool to guide these activities for improved coexistence with wildlife using both wildland and residential portions of the landscape. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2014

The interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and a non-native predators on stream-rearing salmon

Predicting how climate change is likely to interact with myriad other stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory non-native smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and non-native species on stream-rearing salmon, and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin; we compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing Chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of Chinook salmon rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing Chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (2-4-fold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of Chinook salmon from the more altered stream, and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater predation risk by non-native species.

Oregon↗

USGS2013

Moving across the border: Modeling migratory bat populations

The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure – these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2014

Conserving migratory mule deer through the umbrella of sage-grouse

Conserving migratory ungulates in increasingly human-dominated landscapes presents a difficult challenge to land managers and conservation practitioners. Nevertheless, ungulates may receive ancillary benefits from conservation actions designed to protect species of greater conservation priority where their ranges are sympatric. Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocerus urophasianus ), for example, have been proposed as an umbrella species for other sagebrush ( Artemesia spp.)-dependent fauna. We examined a landscape where conservation efforts for sage-grouse overlap spatially with mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) to determine whether sage-grouse conservation measures also might protect important mule deer migration routes and seasonal ranges. We conducted a spatial analysis to determine what proportion of migration routes, stopover areas, and winter ranges used by mule deer were located in areas managed for sage-grouse conservation. Conservation measures overlapped with 66–70% of migration corridors, 74–75% of stopovers, and 52–91% of wintering areas for two mule deer populations in the upper Green River Basin of Wyoming. Of those proportions, conservation actions targeted towards sage-grouse accounted for approximately half of the overlap in corridors and stopover areas, and nearly all overlap on winter ranges, indicating that sage-grouse conservation efforts represent an important step in conserving migratory mule deer. Conservation of migratory species presents unique challenges because although overlap with conserved lands may be high, connectivity of the entire route must be maintained as barriers to movement anywhere within the migration corridor could render it unviable. Where mule deer habitats overlap with sage-grouse core areas, our results indicate that increased protection is afforded to winter ranges and migration routes within the umbrella of sage-grouse conservation, but this protection is contingent on concentrated developments within core areas not intersecting with high-priority stopovers or corridors, and that the policy in turn does not encourage development on deer ranges outside of core areas. With the goal of protecting entire migration routes, our analysis highlights areas of potential conservation focus for mule deer, which are characterized by high exposure to residential development and use by a large proportion of migrating deer.

Ecosphere↗

USGS1981

Cenozoic coccoliths from the Deep Sea Drilling Project

Coccoliths, as the dominant constituent of many Deep Sea Drilling Project cores, have provided the means of rapid and detailed biostratigraphic zonation to help guide ocean-sediment coring operations aboard D.V. Glomar Challenger. The Cenozoic has been divided into 50 to 60 zones and subzones which are most effective for middle- and low- latitude sites. Because key stratigraphic coccoliths have proved more resistant to diagenetic change than planktic foraminifers, they contributed to dating of sedimentary beds within and just above basalt, directly demonstrating the correctness of the sea-floor spreading hypothesis. An unexpected discovery of Braarudosphaera beds in the South Atlantic produced valuable speculation on the response of coccolithophorids to paleoceanographic changes. Samples from the diversity of oceanic terrains explored by early cruises of Glomar Challenger helped in the recognition of the effects of differential preservation —etching and overgrowth from species to species —and in the determination of biogeographic ranges which would affect the taxonomic, paleoecologic and biostratigraphic assignments of coccoliths. DSDP sites have provided the matrix needed to outline depth sequences based on dissolution rank, and paleotemperature sequences based on abundance along latitudinal traverses. New Hydraulic Piston Corer capabilities will make possible application of magnetic reversal stratigraphy to undisturbed cores where coccolith evolutionary transitions and datum-interval stratigraphy can be established.

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

Geomagnetic referencing in the arctic environment

Geomagnetic referencing is becoming an increasingly attractive alternative to north-seeking gyroscopic surveys to achieve the precise wellbore positioning essential for success in today's complex drilling programs. However, the greater magnitude of variations in the geomagnetic environment at higher latitudes makes the application of geomagnetic referencing in those areas more challenging. Precise, real-time data on those variations from relatively nearby magnetic observatories can be crucial to achieving the required accuracy, but constructing and operating an observatory in these often harsh environments poses a number of significant challenges. Operational since March 2010, the Deadhorse Magnetic Observatory (DED), located in Deadhorse, Alaska, was created through collaboration between the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and a leading oilfield services supply company. DED was designed to produce real-time geomagnetic data at the required level of accuracy, and to do so reliably under the extreme temperatures and harsh weather conditions often experienced in the area. The observatory will serve a number of key scientific communities as well as the oilfield drilling industry, and has already played a vital role in the success of several commercial ventures in the area, providing essential, accurate data while offering significant cost and time savings, compared with traditional surveying techniques.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Hydrologic impacts of thawing permafrost—A review

Where present, permafrost exerts a primary control on water fluxes, flowpaths, and distribution. Climate warming and related drivers of soil thermal change are expected to modify the distribution of permafrost, leading to changing hydrologic conditions, including alterations in soil moisture, connectivity of inland waters, streamflow seasonality, and the partitioning of water stored above and below ground. The field of permafrost hydrology is undergoing rapid advancement with respect to multiscale observations, subsurface characterization, modeling, and integration with other disciplines. However, gaining predictive capability of the many interrelated consequences of climate change is a persistent challenge due to several factors. Observations of hydrologic change have been causally linked to permafrost thaw, but applications of process-based models needed to support and enhance the transferability of empirical linkages have often been restricted to generalized representations. Limitations stem from inadequate baseline permafrost and unfrozen hydrogeologic characterization, lack of historical data, and simplifications in structure and process representation needed to counter the high computational demands of cryohydrogeologic simulations. Further, due in part to the large degree of subsurface heterogeneity of permafrost landscapes and the nonuniformity in thaw patterns and rates, associations between various modes of permafrost thaw and hydrologic change are not readily scalable; even trajectories of change can differ. This review highlights promising advances in characterization and modeling of permafrost regions and presents ongoing research challenges toward projecting hydrologic and ecologic consequences of permafrost thaw at time and spatial scales that are useful to managers and researchers.

Vadose Zone Journal↗

USGS1990

Indices used to assess status of sea otter populations: A reply

The California sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) population, after increasing for more than half a century, stabilized and probably declined from the mid-1970's to the mid-1980's. Estes et al. (1986) suggested that the stabilization and decline were not due to food limitation. Garshelis et al. (1990) challenged this suggestion, although in doing so they misrepresented arguments made by Estes et al. (1986), provided no evidence for alternative hypotheses, and offered no constructive recommendations for a better means of population assessment. While acknowledging some of the points made by Garshelis et al. (1990), I believe the collective evidence presented by Estes et al. (1986) provided a reasonable basis for rejecting the food-limitation hypothesis, and point out that recent increases in the California sea otter population following a legislated reduction in net entanglement mortality is strong evidence against the food-limitation hypothesis.

California↗