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At least 901 records · Page 50Linked to original sources
USGS2026

An improved empirical model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume in the western United States

Reliable estimates of debris-flow volume can be used to help predict the magnitude of debris-flow hazards following wildfire in the western United States. In this study, we compiled and used a database of 227 postfire debris-flow volumes that were collected across the western United States to develop a multiple linear regression model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume. We explored 36 predictor variables related to rainfall, terrain, and fire characteristics, and selected the model with the combination of variables that yielded the most accurate predictions of debris-flow volume. We evaluated model performance against the entire volume database, as well as against four subsets of volume data from southern California, the Intermountain West, the Southwest, and regions with limited volume data, such as northern California and Washington. We also compared model performance against 3 existing postfire debris-flow volume models that were developed for use in southern California, the Intermountain West, and the Southwest. We demonstrate that the new volume model performs as well as the regional models in the regions for which they were developed and outperforms existing models when applied to volumes from data-limited regions in the western United States. These results indicate that the debris-flow volume model introduced in this study can be used to improve postfire hazard assessments across the western United States, especially outside of southern California.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, W↗
USGS2026

Genomic structural variation rescues a classic biological invader from a population bottleneck

Invasion genetics presents a classic paradox: how do species successfully spread despite severe population bottlenecks? The brown treesnake ( Boiga irregularis ) in Guam represents a striking example of this phenomenon, having been introduced with only a handful of individuals. We show that the population endured an extreme bottleneck, with roughly half of the genome exhibiting runs of homozygosity, comparable to species of conservation concern. Despite this, we uncovered extensive diversity in the form of nearly 19,000 genomic structural variants, which affect almost eight times more of the genome than single-nucleotide variants and provide material for ‘rescuing’ the population from inbreeding-driven declines. Structural variant density was highest in gene promoters, where recombination and DNA repair often occur, providing a mechanism for rapid evolution of gene-linked diversity. This diversity is enriched in genes vital for adaptive immunity and olfaction, suggesting genomic diversity in key chromosomal regions can rescue populations from inbreeding. This work has critical implications for invasion biology and conservation genetics practitioners.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2026

Cook Inlet beluga whale calling varies by group characteristics, behavior, and tidal state

Communication allows social species to exchange information among group members. In aquatic environments, acoustic signals are among the most effective forms of communication and are important for many species, including cetaceans. Beluga whales ( Delphinapterus leucas ) are highly social and vocal, yet little is known about the functionality of their social calls. To examine context-dependent vocal behavior in belugas, we collected passive acoustic data and fine-scale behavioral observations for the endangered Cook Inlet beluga population. The resulting dataset includes 1,720 annotated vocalizations collected over 21 behaviorally encoded encounters. We fit generalized linear mixed models to these data to investigate the effect of behavioral state, group size, calf presence, and tidal state on (1) calling rate (number of calls/minute) and (2) call category (whistles, pulsed calls, combined calls). Belugas were more likely to call when traveling and had higher calling rates during flood tides. Group-level calling rate increased sublinearly with group size, suggesting that individuals called less in larger groups, possibly reflecting increased listening, vocal coordination, or a strategy to avoid acoustic masking. Group calling rate increased before transitions between traveling and milling, suggesting a possible link between communication and behavioral transitions. Whistles were more prevalent when traveling, while pulsed calls were more prevalent when milling. Combined calls occurred only when calves were present, indicating the importance of these calls in communication with calves. Identifying these communication patterns and the contexts in which they occur can enhance our understanding of beluga whale ecology and aid in conservation efforts via passive acoustic monitoring.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Consolidation and permeability of the B1 and D1 gas hydrate bearing sands and associated seal sediments of the extended-duration gas production test site on the Alaska North Slope

Gas hydrate, a solid combination of gas (mostly methane in nature) and water molecules stable at low temperatures and elevated pressures, occurs naturally in marine and permafrost-associated environments. Gas hydrate reservoirs, such as those in the Alaska North Slope, have been considered potential energy resources for gas production. To understand the petrophysical and geo-mechanical characteristics of the reservoir, core samples retrieved from the site of the JOGMEC-DOE-USGS collaborative gas hydrate R&D project have been analyzed in the laboratory for their hydraulic and mechanical properties. This paper focuses on both seal and reservoir samples associated with the B1 and D1 sands, which are evaluated for index properties (including porosity, grain size distribution, liquid and plastic limits, specific surface area, and specific gravity), consolidation, permeability, and water retention. Furthermore, the reservoir core samples were tested with pore-filling, laboratory-grown tetrahydrofuran hydrate, in order to assess reservoir behavior during gas production from hydrates. Under simulated in situ stress conditions, the seal and hydrate-free reservoir cores had a permeability anisotropy ratio of k h / k v = 3.0–5.0, and k h / k v = 2.4–3.0 for the reservoir tetrahydrofuran hydrate-bearing cores. The data suggest that depressurizing the reservoir to induce hydrate dissociation alters the reservoir effective permeability in three ways: permeabilities decrease due to porosity lost (e.g., the initial reservoir thickness can decrease by up to 5% upon 7 MPa depressurization), permeability increases due to the loss of solid hydrate in the pore space, and permeability anisotropy k h / k v decreases in response to the evolving pore-space geometry. We show that given the simulated in situ gas hydrate saturations (i.e., S h = 32% in core 7P-2E and S h = 21% in core 20P-4), gas production from the dissociation of tetrahydrofuran hydrate in the two tested cores results in a net increase in effective permeability and a decrease in k h / k v . This study highlights the importance of investigating seal and reservoir sediments and the impacts of depressurization on the porosity and permeability responses during production.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Riverine pesticide trends in the United States: Assessing a decade of national-scale monitoring

Pesticides in freshwater systems can compromise water availability by degrading water quality, with implications for human health and aquatic life. Despite recognition of the need for national-scale monitoring and analysis, few studies have documented long-term trends in surface water pesticide contamination across the US. This study addresses that need by analyzing temporal trends and acute and chronic benchmark exceedances for aquatic life and human health from 81 river sites sampled from 2013 to 2022 using an analytical method targeting 80 pesticides. The majority (79%) of single site and pesticide combinations had too few pesticide detections to estimate trends. When detections were more frequent, increasing trends in concentration were twice as common as decreasing trends. Increasing pesticide concentrations were common in primary drainages of the Mississippi River Basin. Aquatic life benchmarks were exceeded by 19 pesticides, and exceedances were geographically widespread, with both acute and chronic aquatic life benchmark exceedances at 62% of sites. The herbicides atrazine and metolachlor and the insecticide imidacloprid were identified as the greatest threats to surface water availability based on their trends and aquatic life benchmark exceedances. These findings demonstrate the need for continued monitoring and trend analysis, driver investigation, and management strategies to protect freshwater resources.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Two hundred years of historical spawning and nursery data for coregonine fishes in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Historical data can provide critical ecological information for species across the globe, many of which are facing unprecedented rates of ecosystem change. Yet, historical information related to freshwater species, especially fishes, remains scattered, often in original formats, and underutilized for informing conservation and restoration activities. Here, we present a Data Descriptor called Coregonine Spawning History (CORHIST), a database designed to house diverse data related to past spawning and nursery areas for fishes in the family Salmonidae, subfamily Coregoninae (ciscoes and whitefishes), in the Laurentian Great Lakes and their tributaries. Data for 11 species of coregonines historically occurring in the Great Lakes are included in CORHIST. Over 3,400 occurrence records at the coordinate scale have been entered, over 2,200 of which are for Cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) and Lake Whitefish ( C. clupeaformis )—two focal species for which there is either multinational conservation interest or restoration efforts underway in the Laurentian Great Lakes. CORHIST is already proving useful for several studies developing habitat suitability models and delineating spatial units for conservation or restoration planning.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗
USGS2026

Life history traits and population dynamics of Freshwater Drum across large river gradients

Objective Monitoring and assessment of nongame native fishes is limited, but conservation interest in these species is growing. Freshwater Drum Aplodinotus grunniens are a wide-ranging species that serve important functional roles and could serve as an indicator for similar but less common species. Our overall objectives were to quantify and compare population dynamic rates and life history of Freshwater Drum among study reaches in the upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers and relate these metrics to hypothesized environmental and anthropogenic factors. Methods We integrated recently collected age data with monitoring data to estimate age and size distributions, growth curves, maturation schedules, mortality rates, and young-to-adult ratios of Freshwater Drum in six study reaches spanning 1,500 km of river. Principal component analyses and linear regression were used to relate environmental and anthropogenic gradients (latitude, commercial harvest, hydrologic dynamics, primary productivity) to life history traits and population dynamic rates. Results We found latitudinal gradients in life history traits and population dynamic rates whereby Freshwater Drum in upstream, higher-latitude study reaches generally exhibited later maturity, slower growth, smaller maximum size, and lower mortality rates compared with those in lower-latitude study reaches. Further, young-to-adult ratios positively corresponded with chlorophyll- a concentration. No clear relationships were apparent between population dynamic rates and hydrologic variation or commercial harvest. Conclusions Latitude is an important structuring component of life history traits and population dynamics of Freshwater Drum in the upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers likely due to both temperature seasonality and disturbance regimes. The presence of demographic structure in a widespread, common species such as Freshwater Drum suggests similar patterns likely exist in other long-lived native fishes.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Acoustic measurements and modeling of sub-bottom layers on the summit of the Atlantis II Seamount

Sub-bottom profiler images taken from the summit plateau of the Atlantis II Seamount reveal distinct seabed stratigraphy, including marine sediment, limestone, and basalt layers. Acoustic reflection data also show arrivals reflecting from this sub-bottom structure. A wavenumber integration model with elastic geoacoustic properties is able to reproduce the arrival pattern of seabed reflections and particularly the phase inversion of the sub-bottom return. The reflection model suggests that the limestone layer is eroded with high porosity and possesses a lower compressional velocity than a well-cemented layer. The model results also highlight the necessity of incorporating elastic effects for realistic geoacoustic characterization.

JASA Express Letters↗
USGS2026

Reconstructing ancient sedimentary source-to-sink systems – Examples from southern Laurentia’s Proterozoic accretionary orogens

Provenance analysis is a powerful tool for investigating sediment delivery networks, constraining magmatic histories, and reconstructing the tectonic evolution of orogenic belts and basins. Basin analysis studies increasingly use detrital zircon (DZ) U-Pb forward mixture modeling to enhance provenance interpretations by quantifying the relative contributions of different sources. Forward mixture modeling requires significant a priori knowledge that limits deep-time applications. This challenge is overcome with an inverse mixture modeling approach non-negative matrix factorization to reconstruct the number and age distributions of paleo-source regions of Proterozoic metasedimentary rocks in the southwestern United States. This analysis indicates eight reconstructed end-member distributions representing unique sediment sources: two multi-modal end members characterized by ages older than ca. 1.8 Ga from cratonic Laurentia, five unimodal age distributions between ca. 1.80 Ga and 1.65 Ga consistent with Paleoproterozoic arc magmatic sources, and a ca. 1.6−1.5 Ga end member likely derived from exotic cratons in supercontinent Nuna (Columbia). Sediments deposited between ca. 1.80 Ga and 1.73 Ga yield heterogeneous age distributions suggesting multiple arc-backarc systems and several phases of slab roll back, contraction, and accretionary orogenesis, including input from pre−1.8 Ga Laurentian cratons. Homogenization of DZ signatures during the Yavapai orogeny (ca. 1.72−1.68 Ga) reflect crustal assembly as well as the uplift of Paleoproterozoic arcs in the orogenic hinterland. Detrital zircon age distributions from strata deposited during the Mazatzal orogeny (ca. 1.65−1.60 Ga) suggest the Mazatzal Province is a continental arc constructed on older crust. Mesoproterozoic samples are consistent with multiple basins derived from local recycling and long-distance sediment transport. Collectively, these data record the tectonic transition from the episodic accretion of disparate crustal domains to an increasingly integrated continental margin. These results provide new insights into the Proterozoic tectonic and paleogeographic evolution of the southwestern United States at basin to orogen scales and highlight the power of inverse DZ modeling to extract geologically meaningful quantitative mixture models from sedimentary records alone, offering a powerful tool for deep-time tectonic and basin analysis.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada,↗
USGS2026

The potential impact of three-dimensional distributed slip models derived from real-time GNSS data on the performance of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for slab interface earthquakes

The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning (EEW) system is designed to warn users of imminent strong ground motion with sufficient time to take protective actions. ShakeAlert currently uses three algorithms to characterize the earthquake source. One estimates the location and magnitude using the first few seconds of the P wave and, while fast, tends to underestimate magnitude for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. A second estimates the location, orientation, length, and corresponding magnitude of a line source using observed peak ground acceleration and contributes primarily to M w 5.5+ earthquakes. The third infers earthquake magnitude from peak ground displacement measured using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data and offers nonsaturating magnitudes for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. Other EEW algorithms exist that infer temporally evolving spatially variable slip on a 3D fault surface from real‐time GNSS data, information that might enable more accurate and timely alerts in the event of large‐magnitude subduction interface earthquakes. Here, we evaluate the potential contribution of one such algorithm, BEFORES ( Minson et al. , 2014 ), to improve ShakeAlert performance through a simulated real‐time implementation of Bayesian evidence‐based fault orientation and real‐time earthquake slip (BEFORES) and other ShakeAlert algorithms using data for eight M w 7.6+ earthquakes. The test results demonstrate that BEFORES can produce well‐constrained and accurate magnitude estimates as soon as or sooner than other EEW algorithms, in turn enabling it to increase the amount of warning time users receive in many cases. However, with a modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) threshold of 3.5, which is commonly used for issuing alerts, BEFORES would tend to alert large geographic regions that did not feel strong shaking (MMI 6+). This effect can be mitigated using a higher alert threshold of MMI 4.5 without negative impact on the amount of warning time obtainable with BEFORES.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2026

Fossil footprints and Ice Age ecosystems of White Sands National Park

Introduction In September 2021, National Park Service staff, U.S. Geological Survey scientists, and an international team of researchers revealed evidence in the form of human footprints at White Sands National Park, New Mexico, that showed people were present in North America between 23,000 and 21,000 years ago. This time was during the Last Glacial Maximum, when large ice sheets covered much of the continent. The results stunned the scientific community and sparked a global debate. The story of how the discoveries were made, how they upended traditional thought, and how they “rewrote the book” on the earliest phases of North American prehistory is a classic example of the process of science.

New Mexico↗
USGS2026

Regression models for estimating suspended sediment concentrations and loads and comparison with acoustic surrogate model on the Snake River, Weiser, Idaho, 1977–2022

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Idaho Power, developed streamflow- based regression models to estimate suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and loads on the Snake River at Weiser, Idaho site (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 13269000; hereafter referred to as “Snake at Weiser site”). This site sits upstream from the dams and reservoirs of the Hells Canyon Complex and the Hells Canyon National Recreation Area, where large sandbars along the Snake River that provide recreation and riparian habitat and host archaeological resources have declined since 1973. Analyses of samples from historical (1977- 2003) and modern (2017- 22) periods show that SSC has decreased over time, with median concentrations declining from 50 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 28 mg/L. Mann- Kendall trend tests confirm statistically significant declines in total SSC and the fine and sand fractions of suspended sediment through the full period of record. Regression models specific to each period outperformed models using the full dataset, suggesting changes in the sediment supply to this reach of the Snake River and highlighting the need for period- based approaches. Regression models for total SSC and fine sediment were more accurate than those for sand, which exhibited greater error and bias, likely reflecting a sand supply limited by upstream dams. The regression model for modern period total SSC and a previously developed acoustic surrogate model showed similar performance, indicating both methods are viable for estimating SSC and loads. These findings help to better quantify suspended sediment concentrations and loads upstream of the Hells Canyon Complex and provide resource managers with tools to better quantify sediment loads affecting reservoir storage and the maintenance of sandbars in the Hells Canyon National Recreation Area.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
USGS2026

Water use in Louisiana, 2020

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, collected water-withdrawal and water-use data from a 2020 inventory of water withdrawals in Louisiana. In 2020, approximately 8,700 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water was withdrawn from groundwater and surface-water sources in Louisiana, which represented a 0.22-percent decrease from 2015. Total groundwater withdrawals were about 1,900 Mgal/d, an increase of 7.1 percent from 2015, and total surface-water withdrawals were about 6,800 Mgal/d, a decrease of 2.1 percent from 2015 to 2020. Total water withdrawals, in million gallons per day, in 2020 for the various categories of use were as follows: public supply, 720; industry, 2,100; power generation, 4,100; rural domestic, 39; livestock, 7.0; rice irrigation, 930; general irrigation, 250; and aquaculture, 590. From 2015 to 2020, Louisiana’s total withdrawals for public supply increased by 1.4 percent, industry decreased by 2.3 percent, power generation decreased by 4.9 percent, rural domestic decreased by 1.2 percent, livestock increased by 11 percent, rice irrigation increased by 13 percent, general irrigation increased by 12 percent, and aquaculture increased by 20 percent. About 51 percent (approximately 960 Mgal/d) of all groundwater withdrawn was from the Chicot aquifer system and 24 percent (approximately 450 Mgal/d) was withdrawn from the Mississippi River alluvial aquifer. Since 2015, withdrawals from the Chicot aquifer system increased by 13 percent, and withdrawals from the Mississippi River alluvial aquifer increased by 18 percent. About 72 percent (4,900 Mgal/d) of all surface water withdrawn was from the Mississippi River main stem. This value represents a 1.1-percent decrease in withdrawals from 2015 to 2020. All water-withdrawal and water-use data presented in this report should be considered estimates. Because of rounding, totals and percentages presented in the tables, figures, and text in the report may differ slightly from totals or percentages calculated individually.

Louisiana↗
USGS2026

Patterns and drivers of cliff erosion in Big Sur, California, USA using repeat photogrammetry, 2017–2023

Seacliff erosion in steep terrain poses major risks to transportation and critical infrastructure. In Big Sur, California, USA, seacliff erosion threatens the sustainability of the central coast stretch of California State Route 1, a transportation corridor that is critical to the region's economy. Published cliff retreat rates for the region range from 1 to 40 cm yr −1 , highlighting that high-resolution, process-based studies could enhance understanding of the causes of spatial and temporal variability. We quantified cliff erosion and investigated its drivers along ∼13 km of the Big Sur coastline at week–month timescales during the late fall to early spring wet seasons between January 2017 and June 2023 by analyzing 3D point clouds developed from aerial imagery using four-dimensional structure-from-motion (4D SfM) photogrammetry techniques. We calculated cliff face retreat rates of 2.23 ± 3.06 cm yr −1 (mean ±1 σ ), an order of magnitude lower than long-term estimated rates for the region (which included large deep-seated landslides), but in line with short-term rates reported across California. Change detection imagery comparison, cliff profiles through time, and statistical analysis reveal a cyclical cliff evolution process in which erosion by wave action at the cliff base destabilizes the cliff and primes it for subsequent failure during precipitation events. Although more erosion by volume could be attributed to precipitation-induced increases in soil moisture (784 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ) compared with erosion attributed to wave power (282 m 3 km −1 yr −1 ), our observations underscore the coupled nature of these processes in driving cliff evolution, consistent with established theory and observations.

California↗
USGS2026

Drift and dispersion of silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) eggs and larvae for hypothetical spawning scenarios in the Upper Mississippi River

Invasive carp pose ecological and economic risks to North American freshwater systems. This study uses the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator to model the drift of invasive silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) eggs and larvae after hypothetical spawning in Pools 1–10 of the Upper Mississippi River. Although adult invasive carps have been detected in this region, no reproduction has been confirmed as of this publication. A total of 450 spawning scenarios were simulated, representing 5 water temperatures, 9 flows, and 10 spawning locations in the tailwaters of lock and dam structures. The study examined egg and larval positions at two key developmental stages: hatching and gas bladder inflation, when larvae seek nursery habitat. Under a wide variety of flow conditions and water temperatures, eggs spawned upstream from Lake Pepin (Pool 4) are likely to settle in the lake before hatching, possibly increasing mortality rates. Eggs that survive passage through Lake Pepin reach gas bladder inflation within the study area, except in scenarios with lower temperatures and higher flows. Conversely, larvae spawned downstream from Lake Pepin generally drift out of the study area before reaching gas bladder inflation, except in cases of higher temperatures and lower flows. These findings inform ichthyoplankton sampling strategies and management actions aimed at reducing invasive carp populations in areas likely to support recruitment.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Water scarcity and infrastructure risk of amplified seasonal sediment transport

Climate warming and deglaciation are reshaping hydrological seasonality in cold–dry regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of agriculture, ecosystems and local communities. However, existing evidence is limited to runoff seasonality. Changing sediment-transport seasonality, a more sensitive component, is emerging as a substantial yet under-recognized threat to water infrastructure. Leveraging monthly observations from the upper Tarim River from the 1960s to 2000s, we show that a warmer and wetter climate has intensified sediment-transport seasonality, with a 43% increase in summer sediment fluxes. Over half of this amplification stems from more frequent extreme sediment transport, particularly events triggered by high sediment supply rather than high discharge. Supported by a state-of-the-art river change dataset, we show that enhanced sediment seasonality and extreme sediment transport have largely contributed to increased river mobility since 2000. Sediment-driven changes are pushing riverine processes towards greater unpredictability and pose growing threats to water infrastructure and water security in vulnerable cold–dry regions.

Nature Sustainability↗
USGS2026

Inland recreational fisheries harvest far exceeds reported inland harvest in the United States

Recreational fisheries are important global contributors to food security, socio-cultural practices, and local and regional economies. However, inland recreational fisheries are often overlooked by policymakers due to a limited understanding of the magnitude of participation, harvest, and economic impact. Here, we used the U.S. Inland Creel and Angler Survey Catalog and catch and effort model (CreelCatch) and several assumptions to provide an initial estimate of the magnitude of total inland recreational fisheries harvest in the conterminous USA. The CreelCatch model projected fishing harvest across lakes, ponds, and reservoirs based on fishing effort, water body area, and regional effects. We estimated that recreational lake fisheries in the conterminous USA likely harvest 236,000–671,000 tonnes of fish per year, 17–48 times greater than total inland fisheries harvest reported to the United Nations. Inland recreational fisheries may warrant greater consideration for their contribution to national scale socioeconomics and impacts on fish stocks and ecosystems.

conterminous United States↗