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USGS2023

Changes in phosphorus and suspended solids loading in the Fox River, northeastern Wisconsin, 1989–2021

The entire Lower Fox River and inner bay of Green Bay, in northeastern Wisconsin, have been listed as impaired by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) for low dissolved oxygen and degraded habitat, with total phosphorus (TP) and total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations listed as the likely causes of these impairments. To restore the Fox River and Green Bay, total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) were developed for TP and TSS, and actions were taken throughout the Fox River Basin to improve water quality. In this study, we estimated concentrations and loads of TP, dissolved phosphorus (DP), and TSS at the Lake Winnebago outlet, De Pere, and the mouth of the Fox River from water year (WY) 1989 to WY 2021; described changes in concentrations and loads through time during this period; and compared the concentrations and loads for the most recent 5-year period (WYs 2017–21) with the WDNR criteria for TP impairment and the TMDL loading goals. TP, DP, TSS, and total suspended sediment concentration data were obtained from NEW Water (the brand of the Green Bay Metropolitan Sewerage District), the WDNR, and the U.S. Geological Survey and combined into one dataset. All the TSS and total suspended sediment data were used together with no adjustment factor and are referred to as simply “TSS.” During WYs 1989–2021, mean annual TP concentrations increased from 0.089 milligram per liter (mg/L) at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 0.128 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River, and concentrations decreased at all three sites from WY 1989 to WY 2021. The most recent (WYs 2017–21) median May–October TP concentrations were just less than the 0.1-mg/L WDNR criterion for TP impairment at the two upstream sites (Lake Winnebago outlet and De Pere) but were slightly greater than the criterion for impairment at the mouth of the Fox River. Mean annual DP concentrations increased from 0.024 mg/L at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 0.036 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River. DP concentrations increased from WY 1989 to WY 2021 at the Lake Winnebago outlet but not at the other sites. Mean annual TSS concentrations increased from 13.5 mg/L at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 23.9 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River and have decreased at all three sites from WY 1989 to WY 2021. The recent median May–October TSS concentrations were less than the 20-mg/L WDNR criterion for impairment at all three sites. Streamflow and TP, DP, and TSS loads increased from the Lake Winnebago outlet to the mouth of the Fox River (TP loads increased from 360,000 to 557,000 kilograms per year [kg/yr], DP loads increased from 114,000 to 162,000 kg/yr, and TSS loads increased from 60,400 metric tons per year [t/yr] to 122,600 t/yr). At the Lake Winnebago outlet, DP concentrations and TP and DP loads increased from WY 1989 to WY 2021 because of an increase in DP concentrations in Lake Winnebago resulting from the lake becoming nitrogen limited as a result of biological processes not consuming the DP in the lake and an increase in streamflow leaving the lake. Although TP and TSS concentrations decreased at De Pere and the mouth of the Fox River, there was little change in the loading because of an increase in flow. Flow-normalized TP and TSS loads at De Pere and the mouth of the Fox River decreased possibly because of implementation of agricultural conservation management practices, reductions in point-source discharges in its drainage basin, and deposition of sediment and phosphorus in recently dredged areas of the Lower Fox River. Additional studies are needed to determine the relative importance of each of these actions and whether the decrease in concentrations and flow-normalized loads will continue to be observed in the Fox River.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2002

Hydrology and water quality of Geneva Lake, Walworth County, Wisconsin

As part of continuing efforts to improve the water quality of Geneva Lake, a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and the Geneva Lake Environmental Agency was initiated in 1997 to document the present quality of the lake and its sediments, compute detailed hydrologic and nutrient (primarily phosphorus) budgets for the lake, estimate how changes in nutrient loading may affect water quality, and describe changes in the lake over the past 170 years by comparing water quality measured in this study with historical measurements and sediment-core information. This report presents the results of this collaborative study. Measurements collected during this study (1997.2000) indicate that the trophic status of the lake ranges from mesotrophic to oligotrophic: the mean Secchi depth was 4.8 m (meters), mean surface phosphorus concentration was 9 ?g/L (micrograms per liter), mean surface nitrogen concentration was 550 ?g/L, and mean surface chlorophyll a concentration was 3 ?g/L. Surface nitrogen: phosphorus ratios indicated that, if just these nutrients are considered, phosphorus should be the limiting nutrient. Phosphorus budgets constructed for water years 1998 and 1999 indicate that recent annual phosphorus loads were about 2,000 kg (kilograms) less than that estimated in 1975 (total annual input was about 3,200 kg in 1998 and about 8,500 kg in 1999). The major source of phosphorus to the lake was from its tributaries, which contributed about 84 percent of the total load. The primary difference from the phosphorus load estimates for 1975 was the decrease in loading from the Fontana sewage-treatment plant. Direct measurements and indirect measurements based on sediment-core analyses indicate that the water quality of Geneva Lake has degraded in the last 170 years, the greatest effects resulting from urbanization. Sedimentation rates were highest between 1900 to 1930, and phosphorus concentrations were highest between the 1930s to early 1980s. As a result of the recent reduction in phosphorus loading, in-lake near-surface phosphorus concentrations decreased from 20.25 ?g/L to about 10.15 ?g/L and are similar to those estimated for the lake in the early 1900s. Concentrations of other chemical constituents associated with urban areas, however, have continually increased, especially in Williams Bay and Geneva Bay.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1984

An overview of ground-water quality data in Wisconsin

This report contains a summary of ground-water-quality data for Wisconsin and an evaluation of the adequacy of these data for assessing the impact of land disposal of wastes on ground-water quality. Chemical analyses used in data summaries were limited to those stored in the USGS computer system (WATSTORE). Information on documented instances of ground-water contamination and sources of potential contamination from land disposal of wastes was provided by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Available data provide an overview of ground water quality but may be insufficient for assessment of ground-water contamination from land disposal of wastes. Many sources of potential ground-water contamination (landfills, surface waste-storage impoundments, and buried tanks) are known. Some of these are probably causing local ground-water contamination that is not apparent from available regional data. Information needs for assessment of ground-water contamination from land disposal of wastes include improved understanding of both ground-water hydrology and the chemical behavior of specific contaminants in the environment. (USGS)

Wisconsin↗

USGS1985

Nonpoint-source discharges and water quality of the Elk Creek basin, west-central Wisconsin

The Elk Creek basin in west-central Wisconsin was studied during the 1980 water year to define the water quality in relation to streamflow. Agricultural nonpoint-source discharges were suspected of contributing significantly to degraded water quality. Two water quality and streamflow gaging stations were established--one on Elk Creek near Independence and the other on Bruce Valley Creek near Pleasantville. Streamflow for the 1980 water year was about 28% greater than average, and precipitation was about 36% greater than average. At Elk Creek, base flow was about 68% of the total stream discharge and, at Bruce Valley Creek, base flow was about 56% of the total stream discharge. Streamflow at Elk Creek during the study ranged from 43 to 1,020 cu ft/sec; Bruce Valley Creek discharges ranged from 2.8 to 306 cu ft/sec. The low flow discharges are significantly greater than the 2-year, 7-day low flow, whereas the peak discharges were between a 2-year and a 5-year flood recurrence interval. Suspended-sediment yields were greatest at Bruce Valley Creek, and was 215 ton/sq mi/yr compared with 184 ton/sq mi/yr for Elk Creek. Double mass-accumulation curves, however, indicated that loading rates were similar for both stations. Suspended sediment and nutrient yields were slightly above the long-term average. Total phosphorus , ammonia nitrogen, and organic nitrogen yields also were highest at Bruce Valley Creek. Phosphorus yields at Bruce Valley Creek were 1,6000 lb/sq mi/yr compared with 1,350 lb/sq mi/yr at Elk Creek. Because base flow was a greater percentage of total discharge, nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen yields and loads were highest at Elk Creek. All phosphorus concentrations at Bruce Valley and Elk Creeks exceeded levels recommended by EPA to prevent the formation of biological nuisance growths. Only one sample, collected on March 18, 1980, at Bruce Valley Creek may have exceeded the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources criterion of toxic levels for un-ionized ammonia (0.04 mg/L). No samples from Elk Creek extended the criteria. (

Wisconsin↗

USGS1990

Hydrology, aquatic macrophytes, and water quality of Black Earth Creek and its tributaries, Dane County, Wisconsin, 1985-86

An intensive data-collection program for the Black Earth Creek basin in southern Wisconsin was conducted from October 1984 through September 1986 to assess the hydrology, aquatic macrophytes, and water quality in Black Earth Creek by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Three sites on two cold-water trout streams Black Earth Creek at Cross Plains, Black Earth Creek near Cross Plains, and Garfoot Creek near Cross Plains were continuously monitored for streamflow and water-quality data. One site in a warm-water stream, Brewery Creek at Cross Plains, also was monitored. Aquatic macrophyte biomass was determined for three sites on Black Earth Creek. Streamflow at Black Earth Creek at Black Earth during the 1985 and 1986 water years (WY) were 44 and 60 percent greater than the long-term mean discharge of 33.3 ft3/s (cubic feet per second) for the period 1955-86. Water year 1986 had the highest annual mean discharge, 53.4 ft3/s, since records began in 1954 at the most downstream site Black Earth Creek at Black Earth. Although there have been considerable fluctuations in streamflow, it has tended to increase since WY 1965 as a result of above-average precipitation and consequent rising ground-water levels. Trout population densities may be related to annual mean streamflow. A regression analysis of adult trout populations and the 3-year moving annual mean discharge had a correlation coefficient of 0.75 with a standard error of 83 percent. Aquatic macrophyte biomass in Black Earth Creek was substantially less in 1986 than in 1985 as a result of substrate scouring from the flood of July 25, 1985. The frequency of occurrence of species during 1985 and 1986 was similar to that of 1981, and seasonal succession of species also was similar; Potamogeton crispus dominated early in the year and senesced in July. P. crispus and P. pectinatus, both indicative of eutrophic conditions, dominated upstream and downstream, respectively; neither species is native to the area. In 1985, the greatest biomass was found upstream from Cross Plains. This large biomass caused diurnal fluctuations in dissolved-oxygen concentration of 5 to 6 mg/L (milligrams per liter) as a result of photosynthesis and respiration. Many of the dissolved-oxygen minimums, recorded at night, were less than the State 6.0-mg/L water-quality standard for trout waters. Discharge from point sources may adversely affect Black Earth Creek's water quality. Warm water discharged to Black Earth Creek from a gravel pit operation upstream from Cross Plains increased water temperatures 2 to 4 degrees Celsius and decreased the dissolved oxygen about 1 mg/L at a site 1.8 miles downstream. Runoff from a settling pond from a landfill operation in the headwaters of the Black Earth Creek basin drains through a wetland that drains to Black Earth Creek and contained as much as 60 mg/L ammonia nitrogen, 980 mg/L biochemical oxygen demand, and 1,300 mg/L chemical oxygen demand, which may be detrimental to trout. Garfoot Creek had the highest suspended-sediment and phosphorus yields per unit area of the three upstream basins during low to moderate runoff. Detention ponds in the Brewery Creek basin appear to be less effective in controlling suspended-sediment and phosphorus loads during periods of high runoff than during moderate runoff. Brewery Creek had the highest concentrations of suspended sediment and total phosphorus during low and high flows. The water quality at the Black Earth Creek gaging station at Black Earth was affected by Garfoot Creek and unnamed tributaries. As a result, yields of suspended sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen increased between Cross Plains and Black Earth. High streamflows during WY 1985 resulted in suspendedsediment yields at Black Earth Creek at Black Earth that were 29 percent greater than the 12-year (1955-65, 85-86) mean; yields ranged from 69.5 ton/mi2 (tons per square mile) in Black Earth Creek at Cross Plains to 116 ton/mi2 in the Brewery Creek basin. Phosphorus yields ranged from 312 lb/mi2 (pounds per square mile) in Black Earth Creek at Cross Plains to 628 lb/mi2 in the Brewery Creek basin. Total nitrogen yields ranged from 3,280 lb/mi2 in the Brewery Creek basin to 6,920 lb/mi2 in the Garfoot Creek basin. An increase in oxygen demand, caused by agricultural runoff, has resulted in reduced dissolved-oxygen content of the water in both Black Earth and Garfoot Creeks. The most substantial reduction occurred at Black Earth Creek at Cross Plains on July 25, 1985, as a result of the largest storm runoff event during the study. A rainfall of 5.54 inches caused streamflow discharges to increase from 9 to 122 ft3/s and dissolved-oxygen concentrations to decline to 3.0 mg/L; the dissolved-oxygen concentration was less than 6.0 mg/L for 30 hours.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1995

Hydrogeology of southwestern Sheboygan County, Wisconsin, in the vicinity of the Kettle Moraine Springs fish hatchery

This report describes the hydrogeology of the dolomite aquifer of Silurian age and its relation to springs in a study area in southwestern Sheboygan County, Wisconsin. The study was conducted at the Kettle Moraine Springs fish hatchery in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. The dolomite aquifer is overlain by more than 60 feet of glacial deposits. Fine-grained glacial deposits confine the dolomite aquifer in the lowland at the hatchery. Thicker, coarse-grained glacial deposits overlie the dolomite aquifer on the hills surrounding the hatchery. The coarse-grained deposits are in good hydraulic connection with the aquifer. The transmissivity and storage coefficient of the dolomite aquifer are 1,220 feet squared per day and 0.0007, respectively. Pumping from the aquifer results in drawdown in wells open to the aquifer and the effects of this pumping will decrease the greater the distance between wells. The amount of drawdown caused by pumping was estimated by means of distance-drawdown curves. Five springs and two wells open to the dolomite aquifer supply water to the hatchery. Groundwater withdrawals from fish hatchery wells affect the water level in an observation well near the springs and probably decrease the flow from the springs to the hatchery. Additional pumping from the aquifer probably will further decrease flow from the springs.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1995

Water-quality assessment of part of the Upper Mississippi River Basin, Minnesota and Wisconsin– Volatile organic compounds in surface and ground water, 1978-94

The U.S. Geological Survey compiled and summarized analyses of volatile organic compounds (VOC's) in surface and ground water from water-quality data bases maintained by-Federal, State, and local agencies as part of a retrospective analysis of water-quality data for the Upper Mississippi River Basin study unit of the National WaterQuality Assessment Program. The retrospective analysis focused on a study area that encompasses 19,500 mi 2 of the eastern portion of the study unit. Major river basins in the study area include the part of the Upper Mississippi River drainage from Lake Pepin upstream to sampling stations on the Mississippi and Minnesota Rivers where long-term water-quality data are available and the entire drainage basin of the St. Croix River. The Twin Cities metropolitan area, with a population of 2.4 million people, is located in the south-central part of the study area. Water-quality data collected in the study area from 1978 through 1994 by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Minnesota Department of Health, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, the Metropolitan Council Environmental Services, and the city of Minneapolis were included in the retrospective analysis. In this report, assessment of the presence and distribution of VOC's in surface and ground water in the study area is restricted to two groups of VOC's: target VOC's, and trihalomethane compounds (THM's). Target VOC's, the most commonly detected non-trihalomethane VOC's in surface and ground water in the study area, include 1,1- dichloroethane, 1,2-dichloroethane, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, trichloroethene, tetrachloroethene, benzene, ethylbenzene, toluene, meta+para-xylene, and ortho-xylene. Trihalomethane compounds described in this report include chloroform, bromodichloromethane, chlorodibromomethane, bromoform, and fluorodichloromethane. Examination of water-quality data from widely distributed sampling networks of river sites and wells in the study area led to the following conclusions: 1) trace amounts of chlorinated VOC's were detected sporadically in waters of the Mississippi, Minnesota, St. Croix, and Vermillion Rivers; 2) benzene, ethylbenzene, toluene, and meta+paraxylene were detected sporadically in waters sampled from the chain of lakes used as the municipal supply for St. Paul, Minnesota; 3) the target VOC's were detected in less than five percent of ground-water samples at relatively low concentrations, generally near detection limits which ranged from 1 to 5 micrograms per liter; 4) VOC's were generally detected at similar frequencies, but at higher concentrations, in water samples from wells completed in sand and gravel aquifers than in water samples from wells completed in bedrock aquifers; 5) VOC's were most commonly detected in ground water in the vicinity of identifiable emission sites of VOC's, such as landfills, dumps, or major industries; 6) trichloroethene, a commonly used degreasing agent in dry cleaning, metal cleaning and cleaning septic lines, was the most frequently detected target VOC in ground water sampled from wells completed in both sand and gravel and bedrock aquifers; 7) wells producing water with detectable concentrations of the target VOC's tended to be shallower than wells producing water with no detectable concentrations of those compounds, but the differences in well depths were not statistically significant at a 95 percent confidence level; and 8) chlorination of water substantially increased the frequency of detection of trihalomethane compounds. The low frequencies of detection of the target VOC's and THM's in surface and ground water sampled from widely distributed sampling networks in the study area indicate that, although there are thousands of sites which can potentially emit these compounds to water, soil, and the atmosphere, these compounds have not had a widespread measurable effect on the quality of surface and ground water in the study area.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2021

Appendix E. Water quality and hydrology of Green Lake, Wisconsin, and the response in its near-surface water-quality and metalimnetic dissolved oxygen minima to changes in phosphorus loading

Green Lake is the deepest natural inland lake in Wisconsin, USA, with a maximum depth of about 72 meters (m). In the early 1900’s, the lake was believed to have very good water quality (low nutrient concentrations and good water clarity), with low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations only in the deepest part of the lake. Because of increased phosphorus (P) inputs from anthropogenic activities in its watershed, total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake increased, which led to increased algal production and low DO concentrations not only occurring in its deepest areas but also in the middle of the water column (metalimnion). Routine monitoring of the lake and its tributaries has been conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey since 2004 and 1988, respectively. Results from this monitoring led to the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) listing the lake as impaired because of low DO concentrations in the metalimnion, with elevated TP concentrations identified as the cause of impairment. As part of this study, comprehensive sampling of the lake and its tributaries was conducted in 2017–2018 to augment ongoing monitoring and further describe the low DO concentrations in the lake (especially in the metalimnion). Empirical and process-driven water quality models were then used to determine the causes of the low DO concentrations and the magnitude of P load reductions needed to improve the water quality of the lake to meet multiple water-quality goals, including the WDNR criteria for TP and DO. Data from previous studies showed that DO concentrations in the metalimnion decreased slightly as summer progressed in the early 1900’s, but since the late 1970s have typically dropped below 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L), which is the WDNR criterion for impairment. During 2014–2018 (baseline period for this study), the near-surface geometric-mean TP concentration during June–September in the east side of the lake was 0.020 mg/L and in the west side was 0.016 mg/L (both were below the 0.015 mg/L WDNR criterion for the lake), and the minimum metalimnetic DO concentrations measured in August ranged from 1.0 to 4.7 mg/L. It was believed that the degradation in water quality was caused by excessive P inputs to the lake; therefore, the total P inputs to the lake were estimated. The mean annual external P load during 2014–2018 was estimated to be 8,980 kilograms per year (kg/yr), of which monitored and unmonitored tributary inputs contributed 84 percent, atmospheric inputs contributed 8 percent, waterfowl contributed 7 percent, and septic systems contributed 1 percent. At fall turnover, internal sediment recycling contributed an additional 7,040 kg that increased TP concentrations in shallow areas of the lake by about 0.020 mg/L. The elevated TP concentrations then persisted until the following spring. On an annual basis, however, there is a net deposition of P to the bottom sediments. Empirical models were used to describe how the near-surface water quality of Green Lake would be expected to respond to changes in external P loading. Predictions from the models showed a relatively linear response between P loading and TP and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in the lake, with the changes in TP and Chl-a concentrations being less on a percentage basis (50–60 percent for TP and 30–70 percent for Chl-a) than the changes in P loading. Mean summer water clarity, indicated by Secchi disk depths, had a larger response to decreases in P loading than to increases in loading. Based on these relations, external P loading to the lake would need to be decreased from 8,980 kg/yr to about 5,460 kg/yr for the geometric mean June–September TP concentration on the east side of the lake, with higher TP concentrations than the west side, to reach the WDNR criterion of 0.015 mg/L. This reduction of 3,520 kg/yr equates to a 46-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external P sources (all external sources except precipitation, atmospheric deposition, and waterfowl) from that measured during water years (WYs) 2014–2018. The total external P loading would need to be decreased to 7,680 kg/yr (17-percent reduction in potentially controllable external P sources) for near-surface June–September TP concentrations in the west side of the lake to reach 0.015 mg/L. Total external P loading would need to be decreased to 3,870–5,320 kg/yr for the lake to be classified as oligotrophic, with a near-surface June-September TP concentration of 0.012 mg/L. Results from the hydrodynamic water-quality model GLM-AED (General Lake Model coupled to the Aquatic Ecodynamics modeling library) indicated that metalimnetic DO minima are driven by external P loading and internal sediment recycling that lead to high TP concentrations during spring and early summer, which in turn lead to high phytoplankton production, high metabolism and respiration, and ultimately DO consumption in the upper, warmer areas of the metalimnion. GLM-AED results indicated that settling of organic material during summer may be slowed by the colder, denser, and more viscous water in the metalimnion and increase DO consumption. Based on empirical evidence comparing minimum metalimnetic DO concentrations with various meteorological, hydrologic, water quality, and in-lake physical factors, lower metalimnetic DO concentrations occurred when there was warmer metalimnetic water temperatures, higher near-surface Chl-a and TP concentrations, and lower Secchi depths during summer. GLM-AED results indicated that the external P load would need to be reduced to about 4,010 kg/yr, a 57-percent reduction from that measured in 2014–2018, to eliminate the occurrence of metalimnetic DO minima of less than 5 mg/L in over 75 percent of the years (the target provided by the WDNR). Large reductions in external P loading are expected to have an immediate effect on the near-surface TP concentrations and metalimnetic DO concentrations in Green Lake. However, it may take several years for the full effects of the external load reduction to be observed because internal sediment recycling is an important source of P for the following spring.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2000

Soil erosion from two small construction sites, Dane County, Wisconsin

Soil erosion from construction sites has long been identified as a significant source of sediment and other suspended solids in runoff in many parts of the United States (Hagman and others, 1980; Yorke and Herb, 1976: Becker and others, 1974). In some states, such as Wisconsin, sediment has been identified as the number one pollutant (by volume) of surface waters (Wisconsin Depart- ment of Natural Resources, 1994). Because numerous water-quality problems in streams are associated with excessive sedimentation, Federal and state regulations requiring erosion-control measures at construction sites larger than 5 acres have been developed and implemented from the 1970's to the present. During the 1990's, excessive erosion and sediment production associated with small residential and commercial sites of less than 5 acres has been increasingly recognized for its effects on streams not only erosion from individual sites but also erosion from discontinuous groups of sites within a stream basin.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1998

Wisconsin: A summary of cooperative water-resources investigations 1998

The objectives of this study are to provide continuous discharge records for selected rivers at specific sites to supply the needs for regulation, analytical studies, definition of statistical properties, trends analysis, determination of the occurrence, and distribution of water in streams for planning. The project is also designed to determine lake levels and to provide discharge for floods, low-flow conditions, and for water-quality investigations. Requests for streamflow data and information relating to streamflow in Wisconsin are answered. Basic data are published annually in the report "Water Resources Data-Wisconsin".

Wisconsin↗

USGS1997

Wisconsin: A summary of cooperative water-resources investigations 1997

Wisconsin↗

USGS1995

Wisconsin: A summary of cooperative water-resources investigations 1995

Wisconsin↗

USGS2002

Wisconsin: A summary of cooperative water-resources investigations 2002

Wisconsin↗

USGS2000

Wisconsin: A summary of cooperative water-resources investigations 2000

Wisconsin↗

USGS1991

Wisconsin: A summary of cooperative water-resources investigations 1991

Wisconsin↗

USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota↗

USGS2024

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon↗

USGS2019

Scientific Framework for resilience research on the Upper Mississippi River System

The goal of this research framework is to outline research that would continue to improve our understanding of ecological resilience of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) and inform management of the system for health and resilience. We provide a broad overview of recently completed and ongoing work that has been funded as a part of the UMRS Ecological Resilience Assessment and related efforts to provide context for how proposed research questions build upon our current knowledge and may inform restoration planning and design. We describe two primary objectives within this research framework - the first objective is to investigate hypothesized drivers and feedbacks related to specified resilience, and the second is to expand our utility of general resilience indicators through further development and evaluation. The intended audience for this framework is the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program (UMRR). The UMRR partnership is made up of natural resource agencies from five states (Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin) and five federal agencies (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Geological Survey, and USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service).

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗