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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Deep divergence and structure in the Tropical Oceanic Pacific: a multilocus phylogeography of a widespread gekkonid lizard (Squamata: Gekkonidae: Gehyra oceanica )

Aim The islands of the Tropical Oceanic Pacific (TOP) host both local radiations and widespread, colonizing species. The few phylogeographical analyses of widespread species often point to recent human-aided expansions through the Pacific, suggesting that the communities are recently assembled. Here we apply multilocus data to infer biogeographical history of the gekkonid lizard, Gehyra oceanica, which is widespread, but for which prior analyses suggested a pre-human history and in situ diversification. Location Tropical Oceanic Pacific. Methods We generated a data set including mtDNA and diagnostic SNPs for 173 individuals of G. oceanica spanning Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia. For a subset of these individuals, we also sequenced nuclear loci. From these data, we performed maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference to reveal major clades. We also performed Bayesian clustering analyses and coalescence–based species delimitation tests to infer the number of species in this area. Results We found evidence for six independent evolutionary lineages (candidate species) within G. oceanica that diverged between the Pliocene and the early Pleistocene, with high diversity through northern Melanesia, and pairing of northern Melanesian endemic taxa with widespread lineages across Micronesia and Polynesia. Main conclusions The islands of northern Melanesia not only have unrecognized diversity, but also were the source of independent expansions of lineages through the more remote northern and eastern Pacific. These results highlight the very different evolutionary histories of island faunas on remote archipelagos versus those across Melanesia and point to the need for more intensive studies of fauna within Melanesia if we are to understand the evolution of diversity across the tropical Pacific.

Tropical Oceanic Pacific↗

USGS2021

Experimental warming across a tropical forest canopy height gradient reveals minimal photosynthetic and respiratory acclimation

Tropical forest canopies cycle vast amounts of carbon, yet we still have a limited understanding of how these critical ecosystems will respond to climate warming. We implemented in situ leaf-level + 3°C experimental warming from the understory to the upper canopy of two Puerto Rican tropical tree species, Guarea guidonia and Ocotea sintenisii . After approximately 1 month of continuous warming, we assessed adjustments in photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, stomatal conductance, leaf traits and foliar respiration. Warming did not alter net photosynthetic temperature response for either species; however, the optimum temperature of Ocotea understory leaf photosynthetic electron transport shifted upward. There was no Ocotea respiratory treatment effect, while Guarea respiratory temperature sensitivity ( Q 10 ) was down-regulated in heated leaves. The optimum temperatures for photosynthesis ( T opt ) decreased 3–5°C from understory to the highest canopy position, perhaps due to upper canopy stomatal conductance limitations. Guarea upper canopy T opt was similar to the mean daytime temperatures, while Ocotea canopy leaves often operated above T opt . With minimal acclimation to warmer temperatures in the upper canopy, further warming could put these forests at risk of reduced CO 2 uptake, which could weaken the overall carbon sink strength of this tropical forest.

Plant, Cell, and Environment↗

USGS2008

Anomalous cold in the Pangaean tropics

The late Paleozoic archives the greatest glaciation of the Phanerozoic. Whereas high-latitude Gondwanan strata preserve widespread evidence for continental ice, the Permo-Carboniferous tropics have long been considered analogous to today's: warm and shielded from the highlatitude cold. Here, we report on glacial and periglacial indicators that record episodes of freezing continental temperatures in western equatorial Pangaea. An exhumed glacial valley and associated deposits record direct evidence for glaciation that extended to low paleoelevations in the ancestral Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the Permo-Carboniferous archives the only known occurrence of widespread tropical loess in Earth's history; the volume, chemistry, and provenance of this loess(ite) is most consistent with glacial derivation. Together with emerging indicators for cold elsewhere in low-latitude Pangaea, these results suggest that tropical climate was not buffered from the high latitudes and may record glacial-interglacial climate shifts of very large magnitude. Coupled climate-ice sheet model simulations demonstrate that low atmospheric CO2 and solar luminosity alone cannot account for such cold, and that other factors must be considered in attempting to explain this 'best-known' analogue to our present Earth. ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.

Geology↗

USGS2009

Incised channel fills containing conifers indicate that seasonally dry vegetation dominated Pennsylvanian tropical lowlands

The idea that the Pennsylvanian tropical lowlands were temporally dominated by rainforest (i.e., the Coal Forest) is deeply ingrained in the literature. Here we challenge two centuries of research by suggesting that this concept is based on a taphonomic artifact, and that seasonally dry vegetation dominated instead. This controversial finding arises from the discovery of a new middle Pennsylvanian (Moscovian) fossil plant assemblage in southeast Illinois, United States. The assemblage, which contains xerophytic walchian conifers, occurs in channels incised into a calcic Vertisol below the Baker Coal. These plants grew on seasonally dry tropical lowlands inferred to have developed during a glacial phase. This xerophytic flora differs markedly from that of the typical clubmoss-dominated Coal Forest developed during deglaciation events. Although preserved only very rarely, we argue that such xerophytic floras were temporally as dominant, and perhaps more dominant, than the iconic Coal Forests, which are overrepresented in the fossil record due to taphonomic megabias. These findings require the iconography of Pennsylvanian tropical lowlands to be redrawn. ?? 2009 Geological Society of America.

Geology↗

USGS2018

Characteristics of tropical tree species in hyperspectral and multispectral data

Remote sensing has been hailed as a promising technology to provide spatially explicit information on tree species distribution. Such information is of high value for ecologists and forest managers, particularly in tropical environments in which it is acquired by costly field inventories performed at the plot level (∼1 ha). Over the last decade, hyperspectral sensors, usually on board airborne platforms, have been successfully employed for tropical tree species classification. Most of the studies focused on the improvement of the classification accuracy, without examining the sources of variability in canopy reflectance that contribute to discriminate among species. Trees of different species usually feature distinct crown structural and chemical characteristics defined by size, shape, leaf density, branching, pigment and nonpigment biochemical constituents, among others. Understanding the role of these characteristics on tree species discrimination is important to improve and optimize the use of hyperspectral data. Here, we show how spectral characteristics of tree species, from highly diverse tropical forests, are related to their chemical and structural properties. These spectral characteristics were retrieved by spectral mixture and feature analysis, using narrow-band data acquired in the optical domain (450–2400 nm). Finally, we assessed how the spectral resolution affects the classification accuracy and spectral separability.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

Home range use and movement patterns of non-native feral goats in a tropical island montane dry landscape

Advances in wildlife telemetry and remote sensing technology facilitate studies of broad-scale movements of ungulates in relation to phenological shifts in vegetation. In tropical island dry landscapes, home range use and movements of non-native feral goats ( Capra hircus ) are largely unknown, yet this information is important to help guide the conservation and restoration of some of the world’s most critically endangered ecosystems. We hypothesized that feral goats would respond to resource pulses in vegetation by traveling to areas of recent green-up. To address this hypothesis, we fitted six male and seven female feral goats with Global Positioning System (GPS) collars equipped with an Argos satellite upload link to examine goat movements in relation to the plant phenology using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Movement patterns of 50% of males and 40% of females suggested conditional movement between non-overlapping home ranges throughout the year. A shift in NDVI values corresponded with movement between primary and secondary ranges of goats that exhibited long-distance movement, suggesting that vegetation phenology as captured by NDVI is a good indicator of the habitat and movement patterns of feral goats in tropical island dry landscapes. In the context of conservation and restoration of tropical island landscapes, the results of our study identify how non-native feral goats use resources across a broad landscape to sustain their populations and facilitate invasion of native plant communities.

Hawai‘i↗

USGS2015

Clutch size declines with elevation in tropical birds

Clutch size commonly decreases with increasing elevation among temperate-zone and subtropical songbird species. Tropical songbirds typically lay small clutches, thus the ability to evolve even smaller clutch sizes at higher elevations is unclear and untested. We conducted a comparative phylogenetic analysis using data gathered from the literature to test whether clutch size varied with elevation among forest passerines from three tropical biogeographic regions—the Venezuelan Andes and adjacent lowlands, Malaysian Borneo, and New Guinea. We found a significant negative effect of elevation on variation in clutch size among species. We found the same pattern using field data sampled across elevational gradients in Venezuela and Malaysian Borneo. Field data were not available for New Guinea. Both sets of results demonstrate that tropical montane species across disparate biogeographic realms lay smaller clutches than closely related low-elevation species. The environmental sources of selection underlying this pattern remain uncertain and merit further investigation.

The Auk↗

USGS2010

Experimental drought in a tropical rain forest increases soil carbon dioxide losses to the atmosphere

Climate models predict precipitation changes for much of the humid tropics, yet few studies have investigated the potential consequences of drought on soil carbon (C) cycling in this important biome. In wet tropical forests, drought could stimulate soil respiration via overall reductions in soil anoxia, but previous research suggests that litter decomposition is positively correlated with high rainfall fluxes that move large quantities of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the litter layer to the soil surface. Thus, reduced rainfall could also limit C delivery to the soil surface, reducing respiration rates. We conducted a throughfall manipulation experiment to investigate how 25% and 50% reductions in rainfall altered both C movement into soils and the effects of those DOM fluxes on soil respiration rates. In response to the experimental drought, soil respiration rates increased in both the −25% and −50% treatments. Throughfall fluxes were reduced by 26% and 55% in the −25% and −50% treatments, respectively. However, total DOM fluxes leached from the litter did not vary between treatments, because the concentrations of leached DOM reaching the soil surface increased in response to the simulated drought. Annual DOM concentrations averaged 7.7 ± 0.8, 11.2 ± 0.9, and 15.8 ± 1.2 mg C/L in the control, −25%, and −50% plots, respectively, and DOM concentrations were positively correlated with soil respiration rates. A laboratory incubation experiment confirmed the potential importance of DOM concentration on soil respiration rates, suggesting that this mechanism could contribute to the increase in CO 2 fluxes observed in the reduced rainfall plots. Across all plots, the data suggested that soil CO 2 fluxes were partially regulated by the magnitude and concentration of soluble C delivered to the soil, but also by soil moisture and soil oxygen availability. Together, our data suggest that declines in precipitation in tropical rain forests could drive higher CO 2 fluxes to the atmosphere both via increased soil O 2 availability and through responses to elevated DOM concentrations.

Golfo Dulce Forest Reserve↗

USGS2012

Long-term demographic consequences of habitat fragmentation to a tropical understory bird community

Tropical deforestation continues to cause population declines and local extinctions in centers of avian diversity and endemism. Although local species extinctions stem from reductions in demographic rates, little is known about how habitat fragmentation influences survival of tropical bird populations or the relative importance of survival and fecundity in ultimately shaping communities. We analyzed 22 years of mark-recapture data to assess how fragmentation influenced apparent survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate within 22 forest understory bird species in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. This represents the first such effort, in either tropical or temperate systems, to characterize the effect of deforestation on avian survival across such a broad suite of species. Long-term demographic analysis of this suite of species experiencing the same fragmented environment revealed considerable variability in species' responses to fragmentation, in addition to general patterns that emerged from comparison among species. Across the understory bird community as a whole, we found significantly lower apparent survival and realized population growth rate in small fragments relative to large, demonstrating fragmentation effects to demographic rates long after habitat loss. Demographic rates were depressed across five feeding guilds, suggesting that fragmentation sensitivity was not limited to insectivores. Seniority analyses, together with a positive effect of fragmentation on recruitment, indicated that depressed apparent survival was the primary driver of population declines and observed extinctions. We also found a landscape effect, with lower vital rates in one mountain range relative to another, suggesting that fragmentation effects may add to other large-scale drivers of population decline. Overall, realized population growth rate (λ) estimates were < 1 for most species, suggesting that future population persistence even within large forest fragments is uncertain in this biodiversity hotspot.

Usambara Mountains↗

USGS2021

Evaluating establishment success of non-native fishes introduced to inland aquatic habitats of tropical Pacific islands

An information-theoretic approach was used to evaluate non-native freshwater fish species introduced to insular habitats of Hawaii and Guam comparing successful establishments vs. failures. Since the late 1800s, as many as 81 non-native freshwater fish species have been recorded as introduced to Hawaii and Guam (combined) and 50 (62%) of these are documented as having one or more established populations. We examined eleven independent variables to investigate establishment success by creating 21 a priori logistic regression models ranked using Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size. An additional eight post-hoc models were included that comprised the best a priori model and various combinations of individual variables. The best overall model of establishment probability included effects of taxonomic affinity (family membership), prior establishment success on other tropical islands, and hypoxia tolerance. Establishment success in Hawaii and Guam was highest for those species established on many other islands, and according to our best model air-breathing fishes were more likely to become established. Six fish families, each with from three to 18 species introduced to Pacific islands, were highly successful at establishment: Cichlidae (16 established of 18 species introduced), Poeciliidae (seven of eight), Cyprinidae (four of seven), Centrarchidae (four of four), Clariidae (three of three), and Loricariidae (three of four). Those that successfully established include both small and moderately large-bodied taxa, while representing a diverse array of other morphological and life-history traits. Pathways and motives associated with fish introductions in the Pacific have been linked to desires to develop aquaculture, enhance wild stocks of food, sport, and bait fishes, for use as biological control agents, or are linked to the ornamental fish trade. We found that many established species were introduced via multiple pathways (up to eight) and our analyses suggest that the combination of prior establishment success on other tropical islands and presence of non-native fishes in multiple pathways was indicative of high propagule pressure. Our study results and conclusions on Pacific tropical island introductions are in general agreement with previous studies on non-native freshwater fishes in other regions of the world and similar to observations in continental ecosystems and temperate zones.

Hawaii↗

USGS2008

Ground water on tropical Pacific Islands— Understanding a vital resource

To a casual observer, tropical Pacific islands seem idyllic. Closer scrutiny reveals that their generally small size makes them particularly vulnerable to economic and environmental stresses imposed by rapidly growing populations, increasing economic development, and global climate change. On these islands, freshwater is one of the most precious resources. Ground water is the main source of drinking water on many islands, and for quite a few islands, it is the only reliable source of water throughout the year. Faced with a growing demand for this valuable resource, and the potential negative effects on its availability and quality from changes in global climate, increasingly sophisticated management approaches will be needed to ensure a dependable supply of freshwater for the residents of these islands. Much scientific information has been collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other organizations about the ground-water resources of tropical Pacific islands. The aim of this Circular is to give members of the public, policymakers, and other stakeholders knowledge that will help ensure that this information can be used to make informed decisions about the management of these life-giving resources. As the demand for freshwater grows, new monitoring and research efforts will be needed to (1) characterize the extent and sustainability of ground-water resources on different tropical Pacific islands, (2) better understand linkages between ground-water discharge and freshwater and nearshore ecosystems, and (3) prepare for the effects of climate change, which will likely include the loss of habitable land and reduced areas for the accumulation of ground water as a result of rising sea levels.

Laura area of Majuro Atoll↗

USGS2013

High-water marks from tropical storm Irene for selected river reaches in northwestern Massachusetts, August 2011

A Presidential Disaster Declaration was issued for Massachusetts, with a focus on the northwestern counties, following flooding from tropical storm Irene on August 28–29, 2011. Three to 10 inches of rain fell during the storm on soils that were susceptible to flash flooding because of wet antecedent conditions. The gage height at one U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgage rose nearly 20 feet in less than 4 hours because of the combination of saturated soils and intense rainfall. Eight of 16 USGS long-term streamgages in western Massachusetts set new peaks of record on August 28 or 29, 2011. To document the historic water levels of the streamflows from tropical storm Irene, the USGS identified, flagged, and surveyed 323 high-water marks in the Deerfield and Hudson- Hoosic River basins in northwestern Massachusetts. Areas targeted for high-water marks were generally upstream and downstream from structures along selected river reaches. Elevations from high-water marks can be used to confirm peak river stages or help compute peak streamflows, to calibrate hydraulic models, or to update flood-inundation and recovery maps. For areas in western Massachusetts that flooded as a result of tropical storm Irene, high-water marks surveyed for this study have helped to confirm or determine instantaneous peak river gage heights at several USGS streamgages.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Understory plant communities show resistance to drought, hurricanes, and experimental warming in a wet tropical forest

Global climate change has led to rising temperatures and to more frequent and intense climatic events, such as storms and droughts. Changes in climate and disturbance regimes can have non-additive effects on plant communities and result in complicated legacies we have yet to understand. This is especially true for tropical forests, which play a significant role in regulating global climate. We used understory vegetation data from the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in Puerto Rico to evaluate how plant communities responded to climate warming and disturbance. The TRACE understory vegetation was exposed to a severe drought (2015), 2 years of experimental warming (4°C above ambient in half of the plots, 2016–2017 and 2018–2019), and two major hurricanes (Irma and María, September 2017). Woody seedlings and saplings were censused yearly from 2015 to 2019, with an additional census in 2015 after the drought ended. We evaluated disturbance-driven changes in species richness, diversity, and composition across ontogeny. We then used Bayesian predictive trait modeling to assess how species responded to disturbance and how this might influence the functional structure of the plant community. Our results show decreased seedling richness after hurricane disturbance, as well as increased sapling richness and diversity after warming. We found a shift in species composition through time for both seedlings and saplings, yet the individual effects of each disturbance were not significant. At both ontogenetic stages, we observed about twice as many species responding to experimental warming as those responding to drought and hurricanes. Predicted changes in functional structure point to disturbance-driven functional shifts toward a mixture of fast-growing and drought-tolerant species. Our findings demonstrate that the tropical forest understory community is more resistant to climatic stressors than expected, especially at the sapling stage. However, early signs of changes in species composition suggest that, in a warming climate with frequent droughts and hurricanes, plant communities might shift over time toward fast-growing or drought-tolerant species.

Bosque experimental de Luquillo, Luquillo Experime↗

USGS2017

Wave dynamics and flooding on low-lying tropical reef-lined coasts

Many tropical islands and coasts are lined with coral reefs. These reefs are host to valuable ecosystems that support abundant marine species and provide resources for fisheries and recreation. As a flood defense, reefs protect coastlines from coastal storm damage and flooding by reducing the majority of incident wave energy. However, during storm and large swell conditions, coastal wave-driven flooding and overwash still occur due to high water levels, (infra) gravity waves, and/or low-frequency wave resonance. The wave and flooding effects cause erosion, damage to infrastructure, agricultural crops, and salinization of precious drinking water supplies. These impacts, which are likely to increase due to climate change and ongoing development on the islands, may cause many low-lying tropical islands and coastal areas to become uninhabitable before the end of the century. This paper investigates aspects of wave dynamics for the case of a small island in the tropical Pacific Ocean, shows projections of flooding under climate change scenarios, and outlines approaches to generalize the results to other islands, including mitigation options.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2014

Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ 2 H, δ 18 O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply will be affected if regional atmospheric dynamics change trade- wind orographic rainfall patterns in the Caribbean.

Luquillo Mountains↗

USGS2015

Holocene variability in the intensity of wind-gap upwelling in the tropical eastern Pacific

Wind-driven upwelling in Pacific Panamá is a significant source of oceanographic variability in the tropical eastern Pacific. This upwelling system provides a critical teleconnection between the Atlantic and tropical Pacific that may impact climate variability on a global scale. Despite its importance to oceanographic circulation, ecology, and climate, little is known about the long-term stability of the Panamanian upwelling system or its interaction with climatic forcing on millennial time scales. Using a combination of radiocarbon and U-series dating of fossil corals collected in cores from five sites across Pacific Panamá, we reconstructed the local radiocarbon reservoir correction, ΔR, from ~6750 cal B.P. to present. Because the ΔR of shallow-water environments is elevated by upwelling, our data set represents a millennial-scale record of spatial and temporal variability of the Panamanian upwelling system. The general oceanographic gradient from relatively strong upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá to weak-to-absent upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí was present throughout our record; however, the intensity of upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá varied significantly through time. Our reconstructions suggest that upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá is weak at present; however, the middle Holocene was characterized by periods of enhanced upwelling, with the most intense upwelling occurring just after of a regional shutdown in the development of reefs at ~4100 cal B.P. Comparisons with regional climate proxies suggest that, whereas the Intertropical Convergence Zone is the primary control on modern upwelling in Pacific Panamá, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation drove the millennial-scale variability of upwelling during the Holocene.

Gulf of Chiriqui, Gulf of Panama↗

USGS2016

Large reptiles and cold temperatures: Do extreme cold spells set distributional limits for tropical reptiles in Florida?

Distributional limits of many tropical species in Florida are ultimately determined by tolerance to low temperature. An unprecedented cold spell during 2–11 January 2010, in South Florida provided an opportunity to compare the responses of tropical American crocodiles with warm-temperate American alligators and to compare the responses of nonnative Burmese pythons with native warm-temperate snakes exposed to prolonged cold temperatures. After the January 2010 cold spell, a record number of American crocodiles ( n = 151) and Burmese pythons ( n = 36) were found dead. In contrast, no American alligators and no native snakes were found dead. American alligators and American crocodiles behaved differently during the cold spell. American alligators stopped basking and retreated to warmer water. American crocodiles apparently continued to bask during extreme cold temperatures resulting in lethal body temperatures. The mortality of Burmese pythons compared to the absence of mortality for native snakes suggests that the current population of Burmese pythons in the Everglades is less tolerant of cold temperatures than native snakes. Burmese pythons introduced from other parts of their native range may be more tolerant of cold temperatures. We documented the direct effects of cold temperatures on crocodiles and pythons; however, evidence of long-term effects of cold temperature on their populations within their established ranges remains lacking. Mortality of crocodiles and pythons outside of their current established range may be more important in setting distributional limits.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2020

Upwelling buffers climate change impacts on coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific

Corals of the eastern tropical Pacific live in a marginal and oceanographically dynamic environment. Along the Pacific coast of Panamá, stronger seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá in the east transitions to weaker upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí in the west, resulting in complex regional oceanographic conditions that drive differential coral-reef growth. Over millennial timescales, reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí recovered more quickly from climatic disturbances compared with reefs in the Gulf of Panamá. In recent decades, corals in the Gulf of Chiriquí have also had higher growth rates than in the Gulf of Panamá. As the ocean continues to warm, however, conditions could shift to favor the growth of corals in the Gulf of Panamá, where upwelling may confer protection from high-temperature anomalies. Here we describe the recent spatial and temporal variability in surface oceanography of nearshore environments in Pacific Panamá and compare those conditions with the dynamics of contemporary coral-reef communities during and after the 2016 coral-bleaching event. Although both gulfs have warmed significantly over the last 150 yr, the annual thermal maximum in the Gulf of Chiriquí is increasing faster, and ocean temperatures there are becoming more variable than in the recent past. In contrast to historical trends, we found that coral cover, coral survival, and coral growth rates were all significantly higher in the Gulf of Panamá. Corals bleached extensively in the Gulf of Chiriquí following the 2015–2016 El Niño event, whereas upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá moderated the high temperatures caused by El Niño, allowing the corals largely to escape thermal stress. As the climate continues to warm, upwelling zones may offer a temporary and localized refuge from the thermal impacts of climate change, while reef growth in the rest of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to decline.

Gulf of Chiriqui, Gulf of Panama↗