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1,225 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Invited perspectives: Integrating hydrologic information into the next generation of landslide early warning systems

Although rainfall-triggered landslides are initiated by subsurface hydro-mechanical processes related to the loading, weakening, and eventual failure of slope materials, most landslide early warning systems (LEWS) have relied solely on rainfall event information. In previous decades, several studies demonstrated the value of integrating proxies for subsurface hydrologic information to improve rainfall-based forecasting of shallow landslides. More recently, broader access to commercial sensors and telemetry for real-time data transmission has invigorated new research into hydrometeorological thresholds for LEWS. Given the increasing number of studies across the globe using hydrologic monitoring, mathematical modeling, or both in combination, it is now possible to make some insights into the advantages versus limitations of this approach. The extensive progress demonstrates the value of in situ hydrologic information for reducing both failed and false alarms, through the ability to characterize infiltration during, as well as the drainage and drying processes between major storm events. There are also some areas for caution surrounding the long-term sustainability of subsurface monitoring in landslide-prone terrain, as well as unresolved questions in hillslope hydrologic modeling, which relies heavily on the assumptions of diffuse flow and vertical infiltration but often ignores preferential flow and lateral drainage. Here, we share a collective perspective based on our previous collaborative work across Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia to discuss these challenges and provide some guidelines for integrating knowledge of hydrology and climate into the next generation of LEWS. We propose that the greatest opportunity for improvement is through a measure-and-model approach to develop an understanding of landslide hydro-climatology that accounts for local controls on subsurface storage dynamics. Additionally, new efforts focused on the subsurface hydrology are complementary to existing rainfall-based methods, so leveraging these with near-term precipitation forecasts is a priority for increasing lead times.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Deterministic physics-based earthquake sequence simulators match empirical ground-motion models and enable extrapolation to data poor regimes: Application to multifault multimechanism ruptures

We use the deterministic earthquake simulator RSQSim to generate complex sequences of ruptures on fault systems used for hazard assessment. We show that the source motions combined with a wave propagation code create surface ground motions that fall within the range of epistemic uncertainties for the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 set of empirical models. We show the model is well calibrated where there are good data constraints, and has good correspondence in regions with fewer data constraints. We show magnitude, distance, and mechanism dependence all arising naturally from the same underlying friction. The deterministic physics‐based approach provides an opportunity for better understanding the physical origins of ground motions. For example, we find that reduced stress drops in shallow layers relative to constant stress drop with depth lead to peak ground velocities in the near field that better match empirical models. The simulators may also provide better extrapolations into regimes that are poorly empirically constrained by data because physics, rather than surface shaking data parameterizations, is underlying the extrapolations. Having shown the model is credible, we apply it to a problem where observations are lacking. We examine the case of crustal faults above a shallow subduction interface seen to break coseismically in simulations of the New Zealand fault system. These types of events were left out of consideration in the most recent New Zealand national seismic hazard model due to the modeling complexity and lack of observational data to constrain ground‐motion models (GMMs). Here, we show that in the model, by breaking up the coseismic crustal and interface rupturing fault motions into two separate subevents, and then recombining the resulting ground‐motion measures in a square‐root‐of‐sum‐of‐squares incoherent manner, we reproduce well the ground‐motion measures from the full event rupture. This provides a new method for extrapolating GMMs to more complex multifault ruptures.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2025

A review of abrupt permafrost thaw: Definitions, usage, and a proposed conceptual framework

Purpose of Review We review how ‘abrupt thaw’ has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework for how abrupt thaw should be used in the context of permafrost science. Recent Findings We address several aspects of permafrost systems necessary for abrupt thaw to occur and propose a framework for classifying permafrost processes as abrupt thaw in the future. Based on a literature review and our collective expertise, we propose that abrupt thaw refers to thaw processes that lead to a substantial persistent environmental change within a few decades. Abrupt thaw typically occurs in ice-rich permafrost but may be initiated in ice-poor permafrost by external factors such as hydrologic change (i.e., increased streamflow, soil moisture fluctuations, altered groundwater recharge) or wildfire. Summary Permafrost thaw alters greenhouse gas emissions, soil and vegetation properties, and hydrologic flow, threatening infrastructure and the cultures and livelihoods of northern communities. The term ‘abrupt thaw’ has emerged in scientific discourse over the past two decades to differentiate processes that rapidly impact large depths of permafrost, such as thermokarst, from more gradual, top-down thaw processes that impact centimeters of near-surface permafrost over years to decades. However, there has been no formal definition for abrupt thaw and its use in the scientific literature has varied considerably. Our standardized definition of abrupt thaw offers a path forward to better understand drivers and patterns of abrupt thaw and its consequences for global greenhouse gas budgets, impacts to infrastructure and land-use, and Arctic policy- and decision-making.

Current Climate Change Reports↗
USGS2026

ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System performance during the Mw 7.0 offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake

The 5 December 2024 M w 7.0 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake was a challenging test of the U.S. West Coast ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system due to its offshore epicenter and limited near‐source station coverage. We analyzed real‐time performance of all components of the ShakeAlert system, including the seismic algorithms (earthquake point‐source integrated code [EPIC] and Finite‐fault rupture Detector [FinDer]), the geodetic algorithm (Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time–peak ground displacement [GFAST‐PGD]), and network telemetry during the event. EPIC created the first solution for this earthquake 15 s after origin time with an initial magnitude estimate of M 5.6 and location error of 10 km from the Advanced National Seismic System epicenter. An early spurious trigger from station CE.89101 fortuitously maintained location accuracy and, correspondingly, magnitude accuracy. FinDer contributed its first solution at 18 s with a location estimate closer to the seismic network and produced two distinct rupture geometries, leading to minor fluctuations in estimated intensity contours. GFAST‐PGD did not meet alerting thresholds but otherwise performed as expected. Network latencies were <2 s for most stations, supporting the rapid detection of this earthquake by the system. Roughly five million alerts were delivered to cell phone devices in California and Oregon during this event. This was also the first instance of a school district‐wide ShakeAlert‐powered system being activated. Comparisons to recorded seismograms demonstrate that the maximum warning times before potentially damaging shaking (intensity 6+) were in the range of 5–55 s. Although the ShakeAlert system provided accurate solutions and useful alert delivery, this earthquake raised awareness of potential issues within the system, including the need for improved offshore location estimates, a combination of solutions from ShakeAlert servers, and handling of spurious triggers.

California↗
USGS2026

Development of liquefaction-targeted design basis in U.S. seismic provisions

Seismic design criteria for new buildings in the United States have historically focused on life safety performance objectives through minimizing the potential for structural collapse. Development of design criteria to meet this performance objective has evolved over time, leading to the current, risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake (MCE R ) design basis. Corresponding MCE R seismic design loads incorporate the full range of probabilistic ground motion hazard information available from U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models, as well as a representation of the uncertainty in structural collapse capacity. Despite these considerable advances in structural design criteria, guidelines for geotechnical hazards such as liquefaction-induced damage, which continue to be based on uniform ground-shaking hazard (i.e., MCE ground motions), are not well-connected with risk-based, collapse prevention performance objectives. This study, undertaken as part of Building Seismic Safety Council efforts to update recommended seismic provisions through the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, presents probabilistic, liquefaction-targeted design objectives and corresponding ground motion parameters, with a focus on improving consistency in first-level screening criteria for liquefaction hazard assessment. This study identifies a potential maximum acceptable annualized probability of liquefaction triggering ( P L,max ) of 2.5% in 50 years, above which liquefaction consequences and potential mitigation measures would be considered. The P L,max -based design basis is calibrated to effective probabilistic liquefaction hazard levels obtained in practice using current MCE peak ground accelerations, and could be implemented via a new liquefaction-targeted maximum considered earthquake (MCE L ) peak ground acceleration ( PGA L ). The proposed PGA L is derived from probabilistic liquefaction hazard curves and includes uncertainties inherent to liquefaction hazard modeling. The potential design effects of the proposed PGA L are demonstrated via comparison with current MCE PGA levels, effects on first-level liquefaction screening analyses, and improvements in the consistency of P L,max levels across the United States, and for a wide range of site conditions.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

End-user needs for remote sensing wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America comprises globally important grassland and wetland ecosystems critical for numerous populations of migratory birds. Due to the importance of this region for migratory birds, and particularly waterfowl, and the threats of habitat loss due to intensifying agriculture, there is a mature and diverse system of conservation organizations, agencies, and partnerships that spends hundreds of millions of dollars annually on habitat conservation to support migratory bird populations. Remote sensing can be a powerful tool for observing and evaluating global change at large scales as well as expanding inferences from field studies to the broader landscape with statistical models. However, development and utilization of these tools has lagged behind their demand for several reasons, including concerns over spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy of products; perception of a misalignment with decision-maker needs; technological barriers such as skill sets of conservation professionals, computing resources, data access, and usability. In this report, we summarize the needs of conservation professionals and scientists who use or want to use remote sensing data products to inform science about wetland change and conservation of wetlands in the PPR. We assembled this information through several methods leading up to, during, and following a January 2026 PPR Wetland Remote Sensing Workshop. The workshop included United States and Canadian scientists, conservation professionals, and policy experts. Our goal was to bring together end-users and remote sensing product developers jointly to explore reducing the lag between product development and utilization of products to inform science and conservation. Specifically, we aimed to identify gaps in wetland remote sensing that limit effective monitoring, management, and conservation in the PPR, and to develop a framework that outlines pathways to address these gaps by fostering collaboration, improving communication networks, encouraging discussion, and building on existing and ongoing efforts. This report summarizes our participants’ descriptions of end-user needs and the outcomes of the workshop.

Prairie Pothole region↗
USGS2025

Groundwater-level elevations in the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers and Upper Black Squirrel Creek alluvial aquifer, El Paso County, Colorado, 2021–24

El Paso County is the second-most populous county in Colorado and is projected to grow another 15 percent by 2030. Within El Paso County is the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Designated Groundwater Basin (Black Squirrel Basin), an area where surface water is scarce and water users rely primarily on groundwater from five different aquifers (the Upper Black Squirrel Creek alluvial aquifer and four bedrock aquifers within the Denver Basin aquifer system: the lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) to meet their needs. Currently (2024), land within the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin is primarily used for rural grazing and agriculture; however, municipal development is ongoing. In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Ground Water Management District, began a study to establish a baseline dataset and assess the groundwater resources of the aquifers within the Black Squirrel Basin. A network of 39 wells was established in 2021; discrete groundwater-level measurements were made bimonthly. Nine of the 39 wells were equipped with pressure transducers to record hourly groundwater-level data. Seven wells had statistically significant seasonal trends, and trends at 3 wells were negative. For the discrete data, 16 wells had a significant trend for the study period, and 4 wells had negative trends. For the time-series data, 8 wells had significant trends, and 3 wells had negative trends. Potentiometric surface maps were created for this study using discrete, static groundwater levels measured in April 2023. These maps showed the estimated groundwater flow direction from the north-northwest to the south-southeast in the alluvial aquifer and from the northwest to the east-southeast for the lower Dawson and Denver aquifer wells. This study indicates the potential benefit of monitoring wells in the areas near municipal pumping. Additional monitoring could lead to a better understanding of connectivity between aquifers and be an important tool for assessing long-term sustainability of groundwater use.

Colorado↗
USGS2024

3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation studies of gas hydrate reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. This study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-step gridding were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a 3-D trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Evidence for organic and igneous carbon sources in the Mesoproterozoic Adirondack Highlands graphite district, New York

This study examined the origin of graphite mineralization in the Mesoproterozoic Adirondack Highlands. Flake graphite was mined from the historic mining district around Ticonderoga, New York, USA, from the 1850s to the 1920s. Most of the production and reserves from the district are disseminated graphite from feldspathic quartz schists (e.g., Dixon-American Graphite Co. mine, Faxon property, Flake Graphite Company). Protolith sediments of the schists were deposited in the Trans-Adirondack backarc basin at ca. 1.25 Ga and were metamorphosed to high grade at 1.18–1.15 Ga during the accretionary Shawinigan orogeny and at 1.09–1.02 Ga during the Ottawan phase of the Grenvillian orogeny. Major elements and carbon isotopes of graphite from schists (δ 13 C = −28.1‰ to −5.4‰ relative to Vienna Peedee belemnite) are consistent with derivation from organic carbon in protolith sandstones that devolatilized during metamorphism. Some small mines and prospects in the district mined graphitic calcite marbles and clinopyroxene ± scapolite skarns associated with a pegmatite suite dated by U-Pb in zircon to 1.04–1.01 Ga (e.g., Lead Hill and Crown Point deposits), and rare graphite veins are observed at several deposits. Hydrothermal flake graphite from pegmatites, skarns, and veins are distinct from graphite in schist-hosted deposits and have δ 13 C values that cluster around −7‰ to −5‰, consistent with deposition from igneous CO 2 . Covariation of carbon and oxygen stable isotopes and U-Pb zircon geochronology are not compatible with precipitation from fluids derived from country rock metapelites or marbles. Some graphite districts elsewhere show compelling evidence for remobilization and redeposition of sedimentary-derived carbon as hydrothermal graphite, sometimes as thick veins producing world-class, high-grade deposits. In the Adirondacks, there is evidence for two generations of graphite mineralization with distinct carbon sources: syngenetic graphite with an organic origin in Shawinigan quartz schists and epigenetic graphite with an igneous origin in Ottawan skarns and pegmatites.

New York↗
USGS2025

Forecasting water levels using the ConvLSTM algorithm in the Everglades, USA

Forecasting water levels in complex ecosystems like wetlands can support effective water resource management, ecological conservation, and understanding surface and groundwater hydrology. Predictive models can be used to simulate the complex interactions among natural processes, hydrometeorological factors, and human activities. The Greater Everglades in the USA is a well-known example of an ecosystem where complexity has motivated adoption of machine learning algorithms in water level prediction studies. This paper aims to contribute to extending existing machine learning algorithms by integrating spatiotemporal data with deep-learning algorithms in the forecasting process. In this study, a deep-learning model is developed to predict water levels on a regional scale, covering a large area of approximately 9,138 square kilometers in the Everglades ecosystem. This model has the architecture of Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory which can deal with spatiotemporal data by capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies in the training data. The forecasting capabilities of this model (referred to as the global model) are assessed by comparing the global model to two Artificial Neural Networks developed at two different gaging stations, referred to here as local models. One local model is developed at a gaging station directly influenced by nearby water control structures, whereas the other is developed at a gaging station located farther away from these structures. By leveraging data from the Everglades Depth Estimation Network spanning from January 2002 to May 2023, the global and local models were trained to forecast water levels with a two-day lead time. Our findings suggest that both the global and local models perform with approximately the same level of accuracy, with Mean Absolute Relative Error values ranging from 0.38% to 1.4% at the selected stations. The developed global model has demonstrated strong potential as a standalone forecasting tool for the entire study area in the Everglades and could eliminate the need for developing multiple local models. This finding also highlights how machine learning can capture complex spatial and temporal relationships to generate accurate water level predictions on a regional scale.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Overstorey mortality promotes juvenile piñon pine growth during favourable weather at cooler, wetter sites

Hotter droughts have resulted in widespread tree die-off events globally, frequently leading to regeneration failure. Dry forest recovery often depends on the growth and survival of extant juvenile trees. However, it is unclear how microenvironmental changes following overstorey tree die-off affect juvenile trees, particularly in dryland systems where tree recruitment is typically limited by water availability and heat stress. We simulated an overstorey tree die-off event by girdling trees in piñon-juniper woodlands across the south-western United States. We sampled juvenile piñon pine growth from live and dead overstorey treatments across six study sites spanning a regional latitudinal gradient and local elevational gradients. We examined how juvenile branch and needle growth differed between live and dead overstorey treatments, and whether responses varied with weather conditions and juvenile tree size following overstorey mortality. We found greater juvenile branch and needle growth under dead compared with live overstorey trees for 2 years following overstorey mortality at mid- and high-elevation sites which are typically cooler and wetter than the other sites. These observed growth releases were contingent on favourable post-mortality weather conditions. Higher growth under dead overstorey occurred at sites experiencing near-average climatic water deficits compared with sites experiencing above-average climatic water deficits. Growth at all sites increased from the first to second year after overstorey mortality. Across sites, growth was unrelated to juvenile tree size. Synthesis . Our results underscore differentiation in juvenile responses to overstorey tree die-off driven by local site conditions and weather across the range of Pinus edulis . Overstorey mortality resulted in consistently higher juvenile growth only at climatically favourable sites and during favourable weather, while unmeasured microsite differences could help account for variation observed at the hottest and driest site. Results from less climatically favourable sites suggest that overstorey trees neither directly limit nor facilitate juvenile growth, though further study over longer timeframes is needed to resolve the pace and magnitude of potential recovery or decline. Overall, juvenile vigour may be promoted following overstorey mortality only in a narrow spatial (site) and temporal (weather) environmental context, suggesting additional vulnerabilities for piñon populations under more arid conditions.

Arizona, Colorado↗
USGS2025

Groundwater-storage change in the north Phoenix aquifer, Arizona, 2020–23

The city of Phoenix, Arizona, relies primarily on surface water for municipal water supply. The city also maintains wells to withdraw groundwater, particularly in times of drought and reduced surface-water supply, and to recharge groundwater when excess surface water is available. As of 2023, withdrawals from the aquifer in the northeastern part of the city are a small volume of water, less than 3,000 acre-feet in most years. Each year a similar volume of water is recharged through injection wells. The withdrawal wells are permitted to produce in total more than 20,000 acre-feet per year; increased pumping could lead to future groundwater-storage declines. To better understand groundwater-storage change in the north Phoenix aquifer, a repeat microgravity monitoring network was established in 2020. Measurements of changes in Earth’s gravity provide a direct, non-invasive measurement of subsurface mass change. Groundwater-storage changes were small during the 2020–23 study period, consistent with the relatively small volumes of pumping and recharge. Groundwater levels measured in monitoring wells were stable or increased slightly during this period, although the number of monitoring wells within the area of the gravity monitoring network is sparse. In total, about 15,000 acre-feet of water were pumped and 31,000 acre-feet recharged through injection in the north Phoenix aquifer during the 2020–22 period. Within the monitored area, groundwater storage increased by a small amount, about 1,000 acre-feet, in 2020, and decreased by a larger amount, about 6,000 acre-feet, each year in 2021 and 2022. Storage decreased at 89 of 102 stations from 2020 to 2023. Groundwater-storage decreases greater than the volume of net pumping indicate down-gradient subflow from the aquifer is greater than recharge plus incoming subflow, drying of the unsaturated zone resulting from decreased land-surface recharge, or both. At present (2023), the aquifer appears able to store and supply the relatively small amounts of water needed without excessive drawdown or harmful effects, such as land subsidence and surface inundation. If pumping or recharge increases in the future, the established repeat microgravity network is well suited to capture the spatial extent and magnitude of groundwater-storage changes in the aquifer.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

Rare earth element-mineralized carbonatite in the Bear Lodge Alkaline Complex, USA—Ore genesis implications from fluid inclusion characterization

Rare earth element (REE) resources of the Bear Lodge Alkaline Complex, Wyoming, are hosted in variably leached carbonatite spatially related to diatreme breccia pipes. We investigated the genesis of REE and lesser-known gold resources through fluid inclusion analysis of carbonatite, fluorite breccia, and smoky quartz vein samples. Physicochemical characteristics of inclusion-trapped fluids were evaluated using petrography, microthermometry, Raman spectroscopy, decrepitate mound analysis, energy-dispersive spectroscopy, laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and noble gas isotope analysis. Microthermometry results reveal three fluid types that affected carbonatite dikes within deeper zones that escaped near-surface, ore-grade REE enrichment: (1) high-temperature (330–432°C) magmatic fluid captured in fine-grained calcite; (2) REE-enriched alkali bicarbonate-sulfate brine; and (3) low-temperature (117–182°C) diluted magmatic or meteoric water. Multiphase brine-like inclusions contain burbankite, nahcolite, strontianite, celestine and alkali sulfate daughter crystals, linking them to early burbankite mineralization. Peripheral smoky quartz and fluorite occurrences at Smith Ridge, 1.5 km from the central carbonatite dike swarm, contain primary inclusions that are Cl-poor and rich in Na-HCO 3 -SO 4 , similar to secondary and pseudosecondary inclusions in carbonatites. Helium isotopes reveal a MORB-like source for carbonatite samples and an older crust signature at Smith Ridge, consistent with the proximal ridge-top exposures of Archean granite. Results from this fluid inclusion study coupled with previous studies of carbonatite mineral paragenesis, show that light REEs (LREEs) were not mobilized great distances. Instead, burbankite crystallized within carbonatite from alkali bicarbonate fluids. With sodium retained in early burbankite, outward-emanating fluids enriched in potassium relative to sodium (higher K:Na) resulted in potassium–ferric iron metasomatism of silicate host rocks. This alkali fractionation was accompanied by fractionation of LREEs and heavy REEs (HREEs), with LREEs dominating the central carbonatite resources. In contrast, areas of peripheral REE mineralization at Bear Lodge are commonly characterized by higher HREE:LREE ratios. The K:Na ratio of associated fenites or alteration assemblages could be indicative of early crystallized burbankite in carbonatites and REE fractionation processes potentially leading to areas of concentrated HREEs with greater supply vulnerabilities.

South Dakota, Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Fluid inclusion constraints on the geometry of the magmatic plumbing system beneath Mauna Loa – Part 2: Xenoliths

Mauna Loa volcano erupts crystal-poor material at its summit and more crystal-rich material on its rift zones. Some of the more olivine-rich lava flows contain xenoliths with diverse mineralogy, including cumulate harzburgites with high-Mg# orthopyroxenes and high-Fo olivines (both > 84). Previous experimental work and thermodynamic modelling has proposed that high-Mg# orthopyroxenes only crystallize from Mauna Loa melts at high pressures (> 6 kbar, > 20 km), leading to suggestions that there is a region of sub-Moho magma storage at Mauna Loa in addition to the geophysically imaged magma reservoir at 2–5 km depth below the summit. We use melt and fluid inclusion barometry combined with thermodynamic models to further investigate this suggestion. Fluid inclusion data from harzburgites and dunitic xenoliths yield storage depths remarkably similar to those found in non-xenolithic crystals from lavas and tephras, with a clear peak at ~ 2–3 km (below the summit). Depths from melt inclusions in these xenoliths overlap with fluid inclusion pressures, ruling out the possibility of fluid inclusion re-equilibration during a period of stalling in a shallower reservoir. We examine five different thermodynamic models and find that the minimum pressure of olivine-orthopyroxene co-saturation varies by ~ 4 kbar (~ 12 km). These models also fail to predict that orthopyroxene is stable in ~ 15–80% of compositionally relevant experimental charges which grew orthopyroxene. Overall, this shows that phase stability modelling is an unreliable method of determining magma storage depth at Mauna Loa. We suggest that model discrepancies reflect a lack of experimental constraints on orthopyroxene stability at > 1200 ℃ and 0.01–5 kbar. Based on the presence of large oikocrystic orthopyroxenes completely enclosing rounded olivine chadacrysts, we suggest that these harzburgitic xenoliths formed through the reaction of intruding melts with olivine mush piles within the Mauna Loa edifice at ~ 3 km depth below the summit, with no need for a deeper storage reservoir. The predominance of pre-eruptive shallow storage means that there is more chance of detecting reservoir destabilization with geophysical monitoring techniques compared to a scenario where melts are supplied from sub-Moho reservoirs.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

James Buttle review: The characteristics of baseflow resilience across diverse ecohydrological terrains

The dynamic storage of aquifers is the portion of groundwater that can potentially drain to any given point along a stream to create baseflow. Baseflow typically occurs year-round in perennial streams, though the characteristics and stability of dynamic storage are often most important to instream processes during extended dry periods (without precipitation and snowmelt) when runoff and quickflows are minimised. The term ‘baseflow resilience’ is defined for this review as the tendency of baseflow in streams to maintain a consistent volume and water quality year to year while under stress from climate variability and extremes, along with anthropogenic stressors such as water withdrawals, land use change, and water quality degradation. ‘Baseflow resilience’ has, in part, a user-defined meaning spanning water supply and water quality variables of primary interest. Watershed characteristics that directly impact resilience can often produce non-intuitive feedbacks that enhance some attributes of baseflow while simultaneously impairing others. For example, permeable stream corridor geology creates strong stream-groundwater hydrologic connectivity, yet fast groundwater drainage via preferential high-permeability flowpaths can lead to streamflow not being sustained during extended dry periods. Also, shallow groundwater sources are generally more immediately vulnerable to extreme events, warming, salinization, transpiration, and precipitation drought, compared to deeper groundwater. Yet baseflow drought in streams influenced by deeper groundwater can lag precipitation drought by years, and contaminant legacies may propagate through deep groundwater flowpaths to receiving waters for decades to centuries. Finally, irrigation withdrawals can intercept groundwater that would have drained to streams, and the application of irrigation may leach contaminants from the soil zone by unnaturally raising water tables, yet irrigation return flows can sustain baseflow and groundwater-dependent habitats in semiarid areas. This review covers the concept of hydrologic resilience in the context of stream baseflow processes and summarises the common hydrogeological controls on, and multiscale stressors of, dynamic groundwater storage. Further, we present several quantitative metrics to assess a range of water supply to water quality baseflow characteristics using both broadly available and boutique data types, a subset of which are demonstrated using data from the Delaware River Basin, USA.

Delaware River Basin↗
USGS2024

Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall

Communities downstream of burned steep lands face increases in debris-flow hazards due to fire effects on soil and vegetation. Rapid postfire hazard assessments have traditionally focused on quantifying spatial variations in debris-flow likelihood and volume in response to design rainstorms. However, a methodology that provides estimates of debris-flow inundation downstream of burned areas based on forecast rainfall would provide decision-makers with information that directly addresses the potential for downstream impacts. We introduce a framework that integrates a 24 h lead-time ensemble precipitation forecast with debris-flow likelihood, volume, and runout models to produce probabilistic maps of debris-flow inundation. We applied this framework to simulate debris-flow inundation associated with the 9 January 2018 debris-flow event in Montecito, California, USA. When the observed debris-flow volumes were used to drive the probabilistic forecast model, analysis of the simulated inundation probabilities demonstrates that the model is both reliable and sharp. In the fully predictive model, however, in which debris-flow likelihood and volume were computed from the atmospheric model ensemble's predictions of peak 15 min rainfall intensity, I 15 , the model generally under-forecasted the inundation area. The observed peak I 15 lies in the upper tail of the atmospheric model ensemble spread; thus a large fraction of ensemble members forecast lower I 15 than observed. Using these I 15 values as input to the inundation model resulted in lower-than-observed flow volumes which translated into under-forecasting of the inundation area. Even so, approximately 94 % of the observed inundated area was forecast to have an inundation probability greater than 1 %, demonstrating that the observed extent of inundation was generally captured within the range of outcomes predicted by the model. Sensitivity analyses indicate that debris-flow volume and two parameters associated with debris-flow mobility exert significant influence on inundation predictions, but reducing uncertainty in postfire debris-flow volume predictions will have the largest impact on reducing inundation outcome uncertainty. This study represents a first step toward a near-real-time hazard assessment product that includes probabilistic estimates of debris-flow inundation and provides guidance for future improvements to this and similar model frameworks by identifying key sources of uncertainty.

California↗
USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address white-nose syndrome and bat health in 2025–2029

Since its discovery in 2006, the fungal disease known as white-nose syndrome (WNS) has killed millions of bats. Of the 47 bat species native to the conterminous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Canada, 12 have been affected by WNS, including 3 endangered species and 1 proposed endangered species. WNS has also been detected in 40 States and 9 Canadian Provinces. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists have been critical in identifying the causal fungus for WNS ( Pseudogymnoascus destructans [Pd]), characterizing the effects of WNS, and tracking the spread of Pd in many bat populations in North America. The mission of the USGS WNS and Bat Health Science Team is to deliver integrated science in order to build resiliency into free-ranging bat populations through more effective WNS management, build capacity for bat health science, and enhance bat health information sharing across USGS science centers and cooperative research units as well as with stakeholders. The USGS can play an important role in supporting regional and national capacity building by providing resources and guidance to local, State, and Tribal management entities and by providing tools to enhance disease management. The USGS Ecosystems Mission Area’s Biological Threats and Invasive Species Research Program is the lead Federal program for free-ranging wildlife disease research and surveillance. As of 2024, guided by the science priorities set by the WNS Steering Committee, USGS scientists are engaged in a nationwide response to WNS. This work is done in close coordination with our partners at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Forest Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Defense, as well as State and Tribal agencies. In addition to conducting WNS research, the USGS is mapping the spread of WNS and coordinating the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) to understand how WNS and other stressors affect the status and trends of native bats across their range. The USGS is supporting the national WNS response through four science goals: (1) provide situational awareness on the health of bat populations; (2) conduct ecological studies of bats along the gradient of disease vulnerability; (3) contribute actionable science to enhance the resiliency of bat populations; and (4) implement an adaptive, holistic approach to bat health.

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USGS2000

Water quality of selected springs and public-supply wells, Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota, 1992-97

This report presents results of a water-quality study for the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota. The study was a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Water Resources Department of the Oglala Sioux Tribe. Discharge and water-quality data were collected during 1992-97 for 14 contact springs located in the northwestern part of the Reservation. Data were collected to evaluate potential alternative sources of water supply for the village of Red Shirt, which currently obtains water of marginal quality from a well completed in the Inyan Kara aquifer. During 1995-97, water-quality data also were collected for 44 public-supply wells that serve about one-half of the Reservation's population. Quality-assurance sampling was used to evaluate the precision and accuracy of environmental samples. Ten of the springs sampled contact the White River Group, and four contact the Pierre Shale. Springs contacting the White River Group range from calcium bicarbonate to sodium bicarbonate water types. Two springs contacting the Pierre Shale have water types similar to this; however, sulfate is the dominant anion for the other two springs. In general, springs contacting the White River Group are shown to have better potential as alternative sources of water supply for the village of Red Shirt than springs contacting the Pierre Shale. Nine of the springs with better water quality were sampled repeatedly; however, only minor variability in water quality was identified. Six of these nine springs, of which five contact the White River Group, probably have the best potential for use as water supplies. Discharge from any of these six springs probably would provide adequate water supply for Red Shirt during most periods, based on a limited number of discharge measurements collected. Concentrations of lead exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) action level of 15 µg/L for three of these six springs. Five of these six springs also had arsenic concentrations that exceeded 10 µg/L, which could be problematic if the current maximum contaminant level (MCL) is lowered. Blending of water from one or more springs with water from the existing Inyan Kara well may be an option to address concerns regarding both quantity and quality of existing and potential sources. All nine springs that were sampled for indicator bacteria had positive detections on one or more occasions during presumptive tests. Although USEPA standards for bacteria apply only to public-water supplies, local residents using spring water for domestic purposes need to be aware of the potential health risks associated with consuming untreated water. One spring contacting the White River Group and two springs contacting the Pierre Shale exceeded 15 pCi/L for gross alpha; these values do not necessarily constitute exceedances of the MCL, which excludes radioactivity contributed by uranium and radon. Additional sampling using different analysis techniques would be needed to conclusively determine if any samples exceeded this MCL. Nine springs were sampled for selected pesticides and tritium. The pesticides atrazine, carbaryl, and 2,4-D were not detected in any of the samples. The nine springs were analyzed for tritium in order to generally assess the age of the water and to determine if concentrations exceeded the MCL established for gross beta-particle activity. Tritium results indicated two springs are composed primarily of water recharged prior to atmospheric testing of nuclear bombs and two other springs have a relatively large percentage of test-era water. The remaining five springs had tritium values that indicated some percentage of test-era water; however, additional sampling would be needed to determine whether water is predominantly pre- or post-bomb age. Of the 44 public-supply wells sampled, 42 are completed in the Arikaree aquifer, one is completed in an alluvial aquifer, and one is completed in the Inyan Kara aquifer. Water from the alluvial well is a sodium bicarbonate water type, water from Arikaree aquifer ranges from calcium bicarbonate to sodium bicarbonate types, and water from the Inyan Kara well is a calcium sulfate bicarbonate type. Of the 44 wells sampled, 28 (64 percent) tested positive for indicator bacteria in presumptive tests. Because these were single samples that generally were collected upstream from chemical treatment feeders, positive detections do not necessarily constitute exceedances of drinking-water standards. A single sample from an Arikaree well exceeded the MCL for arsenic of 50 µg/L. Arsenic exceeded 10 µg/L for six additional Arikaree wells and for the alluvial well and the Inyan Kara well, which could be problematic if the current MCL is lowered. The alluvial well also exceeded the secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) for dissolved solids, which is non-enforceable, and the action level for lead. The Inyan Kara well exceeded the SMCL's for iron and for manganese and the MCL of 5 pCi/L for radium-226 and 228 combined. Several Arikaree wells exceeded SMCL's for either pH, sulfate, dissolved solids, iron, or manganese. One Arikaree well exceeded the MCL of 4.0 mg/L for fluoride and another exceeded the MCL of 10 mg/L for nitrite plus nitrate. Ten Arikaree wells equalled or exceeded 15 pCi/L for gross alpha; however, these values do not necessarily constitute exceedances of the MCL, which excludes radioactivity contributed by uranium and radon. Additional sampling using different analysis techniques would be needed to conclusively determine if any samples exceeded this MCL. Eight wells, all from the Arikaree aquifer, equalled or exceeded the proposed MCL of 20 µg/L for uranium and 33 wells (75 percent) equalled or exceeded one-half of the proposed MCL. Although this standard has only been proposed, additional information regarding the extent of elevated uranium concentrations in the Arikaree aquifer, and the geochemical processes involved, may be beneficial. It was determined from analyses of uranium isotope data for five wells that the source of elevated uranium concentrations is naturally occurring, rather than anthropogenic.

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